Exploitation of Science

1
The$Exploita-on$of$Science$
UK$Design$Forum$talk$
20mar15:$Uo.Manchester,$Uk.$
$
Pdf$and$SlideCast$@$hHp://ianp24.blogspot.com$
$
Opinions$expressed$are$my$own$...$
$
$
Prof. Ian
Phillips
Principal Staff Engineer
ARM Ltd
ian.phillips@arm.com
Visiting Prof. at ...
Contribution to
Industry Award 2008
1v0

2
... But if we understand how, we could do it better
Today
Samsung Galaxy S5
2014 (1yr lifetime)
40yr ago
BTYeoman
c1964-84 (20yr lifetime)
IC Eng’s came from?
SW Eng’s came from?
Research$Does$Get$into$Product$...$
!  Products$have$changed$hugely$in$my$life$...$$
!  Improved:*Technology,*Methods*and*Tools**
!  Diﬀerent:*Business*Models*and*Global*Markets*
*...*ConAnuous,*subtle*change*for*40+*yrs*
*
..."Is"the"Process"fundamentally"diﬀerent"today?"

3
Age of the ...
Universe – 13.6Byr
Earth – 4.5Byr
Life – 3.5Byr
The$First$Exploita-on$of$Science$...$
32,000 yrs got us to this!
!  CroFMagnon*Man*(Us!)$–$35,000$yr$ago$$
!  ‘Developed’*from*HomoFSapien*(Wise*Human)*>100,000*yr*
!  Mission:*Survive"Nature"(1,000*gen’n)*
!  The*Philosophers*–$2,500T1,000$yr$ago*
!  Pythagoras,*Socrates,*Plato,*Aristotle,*Archimedes,*...*
!  Mission:*Understanding"Nature"
!  The*ScienAsts*–$1,000T500$yrs$ago*
!  Galileo,*Descartes,*(1000*ad)*
!  Electricity*F*William*Gilbert*(1600ad)*
!  Mission:*Manipula?on"of"Nature"
!  The*Engineers*–$260$yrs$ago*
!  Industrial"Revolu?on"(1750:*8*gen’n)*
!  Mission:*Exploita?on"of"Nature"
!  Year*0:*ScienceFMeetsFExploitaAon*
!  Technology*Based*Business*Emerges**
..."Our"BIGEBANG"was"just"260"years"ago!"

4
$ $...$State$(s)$and$Time$(t)$are$always$factors$in$this$(Though*not*always*explicit).$
* *...*Not*prescripAve*about*the*choice*of*ImplementaAon*Technology!*
* *...*Nor*prescripAve*about*Programmability!*
Compute:$To$Evaluate$an$Algebraic$Equa-on$(Model)$...$$
Computer: A mechanism to do this repetitively…
!  Usually*used*with*analogues*of*realFworld*parameters,*to*predict*realFworld*outcomes.**
!  Frequently*used*it*to*animate*Models*fast*enough*to*stabilise*a*loop*(RealFAme).*
y=F(x,t,s)
IN (x)
Enumerated
Phenomena
OUT (y)
Information
(Processed Data)

5
History:$100BC$T$Hipparchos’s$An-kythera$
Early-Mechanical
Computation
Hipparchos
c.190 BC – c.120 BC.
Ancient Greek
Astronomer,
Philosopher and
Mathematician!  A"Mechanism"for"Compu?ng"Planetary"Posi?ons"
!  Technology:""HandEMade"Metal,"HandECut"Gears,""Engraving,"Analogue"
!  Found*in*the*Mediterranean*in*1900*(Believe*there*might*have*been*10’s)*
$ $ $See:$hHp://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02hz21v$

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History:$1700$T$Graham’s$Orrery$
!  A"Mechanism"for"Compu?ng"Planetary"Posi?ons"(1,800"yrs"aUer"An?kythera!)"
!  Technology:""FactoryEMade"Metal,"MachineECut"Gears,"Wood,"Analogue"
!  Inventor:*George*Graham*(1674F1751).*English*ClockFMaker.*
Mechanical
Technology
George$Graham

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!  A"Mechanism"for"Compu?ng"Polynomial"Tables"
!  Technology:"Metal,"Precision"Gears,"Digital"(base"10)"
!  Too*expensive*for*the*technology*of*the*day*
History:$1837$T$Babbage's$Diﬀerence$Engine$
Constructed 2000
Late-Mechanical
Computation

8
History:$1856$T$Amsler’s$Planimeter$
Mechanical
Computation
Planimeter 2014 !
!  A"Mechanism"for"Compu?ng"the"Area"of"an"arbitrary"2D"shape"
!  Technology:"Precision"Mechanics,""Analogue"
!  Available*today*...*Electronically*enhanced*

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!  General"Purpose,"Stored"Program,"Compu?ng"Mechanism"
!  Technology:"Electronics"(valves),"Digital"(base"2)"
!  Available*today*...*Enhanced*by*MicroFElectronics*(Mainframe*<=>*Laptop)*
History:$1947$T$Uo.Manchester’s$“Baby”$(ReconstrucAon)*
Electronic
Computation
Implementa-ons$are$Limited$
by$available$Technology!$

10
Available$Technology$Limits$Product$Op-ons$...$
!  The$Technology$and$Tools$available$when$you$start$your$Product$Development$...$
$...$$limit$the$Technology$you$can$u-lise$in$your$Product$!$(duh!)$
!  But$is$that$the$whole$story?$(NO)$
!  Does$Science$and$Technology$leadTto$a$Product$...$
!  Was*the*Orrery*an*inevitable*evoluAon*of*Alloying*science?*(NO)*
!  Or*the*the*Laptop,*the*inevitable*refinement*of*the*invenAon*of*the*Valve?*(NO)*
!  Is*this*...**
* * * *...*a*liner*process*…*(NO)*
$
$$...*NewFTechnology*only*provides*Product*OpAons*(Though*they*may*be*dominant!)*
*...**Specific*Technologies*may*only*benefit*some*EndFProducts*(or*none!)*
Theory => Science => Technology => Product

11
10nm
100nm
1um
10um
100um
ApproximateProcessGeometry
ITRS’99
Transistors/Chip(M)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law
Moore’s$Law:$50$yrs$of$$Technology$Driven$Opportunity$...$
Transistor/PM(K)
X

13
*...*Older*Markets*remain;*but*inherit*their*current*technology*from*Lead*Markets!*
Business$Opportuni-es$Drive$Technology$Developments$
...And 21c Products are ‘Smart’ and ‘Connected’
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Main Frame
Mini Computer
Personal Computer
Desktop Internet
Mobile Internet
Millionsof
Units
Professional!"Consumer
1st Era
Select work-tasks
2nd Era
Broad-based computing
for specific tasks
3rd Era
Computing as part
of our lives

14
!  They$profitably$sell$what$Customers$(you)$want$to$Buy$
!  They$focus$on$their$Core$Competencies$in$a$Globally$Compe--ve$Market$
!  They$avoid$Commodi-sa-on$by$Product$Differen-a-on$…$
!  Cost*and*Quality*(by*improving*Process)*..and..*
!  Improved*BusinessFModels*(which*take*the*Money)**..and..*
!  New/Improved"Technology*when*it*offers*benefit*(may*be*Expensive*or*Risky)*
!  Product)Development)is)a)Cost)(Risk))to)be)Minimised)
!  Technologies*just*enable*OpAons!*(HW,*SW,*Mechanics,*OpAcs,*Graphene,*etc)**
!  NewFTechnology*may*cost*more*than*it*delivers*in*Product*Value!*(Including*risk)*
!  OverFDesign*costs*...*Good*Enough*is*Enough!*
!  Reuse*saves*…*Cannot*afford*to*reFinvent*the*wheel,*or*the*pursuit*of*excellence.*
*...*Successful*EndFProducts*fund*their*enAre*(RD&I)*ValueFChains*
*...*Further*development*of*their*Sciences*and*Technologies*will*be*prioriAsed$
Business$–$A$sustainable$Money$Making$en-ty$
Businesses have to be Competitive, Money Making Machines …

15
!  Need:)A$Mechanism$for$enhancing$human$memory$(Camera))
!  Technology:)...$
!  Excellent*Lenses*
!  Fine*Mechanical*Mechanisms*
!  ElectroFMechanical*Exposure*Metering*
!  Metal*(and*some)*PlasAc*Forming*
!  Manual*Assembly*
!  PhotoFChemical*Memory*(35mm*Film)*
*
1998$T$Canon$EOS$Rebel$GII$(17yrs$ago)$
35mm Film Camera
System-Level
Mechanical Computation

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!  Need:)A$Mechanism$for$enhancing$human$memory$(Camera))
!  Technology:)...$
!  Digital*Logic*(CPU+I.O.)*
!  Sonware*
!  Memory*(NV*and*RAM)*
!  Excellent*Lenses*and*Displays*
!  Analogue*Electronics*(Network*&*GPS)*
!  Sensors*and*Transducers*(CCD*&*MEM)*
!  Precision*Mechanics*
!  MicroFMotors*
!  Baoeries*and*Energy*Storage*
!  LEDs*and*Discharge*Tubes*
!  Precision*forming*of*PlasAcs*and*Metal*
!  Electronic*Packaging*
!  RoboAc*Assembly*...*Technology*External*to*the*Product!*
...**All*of*these*Technologies*are*available*to**
21c*Businesses*today*...*
2014$T$Canon$EOS$5D$$$(Today)$
Incorporating DIGIC5+ (ARM)
System-Level
Computation
Q: So why couldn’t ARM make a camera
to compete with Canon?
A: Because Canon has Capabilities in
place that we don’t have!
ARM-based
Computer

17
!  Science*F*Demonstrated*Fundamentals;*Predictable,*Encapsulated,*New*
!  Technology*F*ScaledFup*Science(s).*Reliable*and*producAve*enough**
for*use*in*a*real*Product**
or*its*Processes.*May*be**
NewFtoFAll,*or*only*NewFtoFYou**
(others*may*have*as*a*Capability)*
!  Capability*F*Installed*Technology*
InFplace*in*business,*ready*for**
missionFcriAcal*use*in*a**
New*Product*Development.*
!  Product*F*Delivered*FuncAonality.**
Market*Need,*FuncAonality*
CostFEﬀecAve,*Quality*
*
The$Capability)Model1$…$
“Capabilities are the Bridge between Science and its Exploitation”
Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability
Capability
Concept
KNOWN-WORK
Development-ExploitCapabilities
TRL 1-4
TRL 9
TRL 8-9
TRL 5-9
Technology
Readiness
Levels
1:*Not*described*in*literature.*
Science
Science
Science
Science
Science
Science
Science
?-WORK
Technology
Technology
Technology
?-work
Research - Enquire, Understand & Establish a Capability
The last stage must be
done by Business Itself

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!  Short$Term:$From$the$KnownCSet)...*
!  Refine"what"we"know"(Including*Individual*knowledge,*Team*knowledge,*and*Tools).*
!  Acquire"what"others"know"(Recruit,*Develop,*Contract,*Licence,*Acquire,*Espionage,*etc)*
*...*Specific,*internal,*secrecy,*lowFnumber,*highFcost,*confidence*
*
!  Longer$Term:$From$the$UnknownCSet$...*
!  Targeted"Research"F*Specific,*pointFfocus,*commercial*advantage*(CrownFjewels)*
!  Partnered"Research"F*Specific,*focused,*indirect*commercial*advantage*(ARM*Partners)*
!  University/Ins?tute"Research"F*Generic,*wide*spectrum,*nonFdifferenAaAng*knowledge*
!  ARM$Funded$Research$Projects$
!  Na-onal$Support$Programs1$(TSB,$H2020,$Research$Councils,$DARPA,$etc)*
* *...*Generic,*broadFspectrum,*openness,*highFnumber,*lowFcost,*partnering,*sharing,*uncertainty*
$
*...*Guided*by*Road*Map*from*longer*term*Business*ObjecAves$
Research$T$Establishes$Capabili-es$
... for Development Engineers to use for Product Development

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Development$–$Exploits$Capabili-es$to$Deliver$a$Product$
... (Tangible or Intangible) to fulfil a Customer Need and a Business Objective
!  Design$is$a$crea-ve$role$within$Development$
!  Engineers$Deliver)an$eﬀec-ve$TechnicalTProduct$solu-on$...$
!  Mee?ng"Func?onal*and*NonEFunc?onal*criteria*...*
!  Eg:$Quality,$TTM,$Budget,$Reproducibility,$Testability,$Cost,$Power.$$
!  Maximising"Product"Diﬀeren?a?on;*Minimising*Product*Risk,*Cost*and*Uncertainty*
!  Using*Available"Capability"(Technology,*Methodology,*Tools*and*KnowFHow)*
!  Engineers$Innovate$by$pushing$the$bounds$of$Available$Capabili-es$...$
!  Using*the*opportuniAes*presented*by*the*ParAcular*Product*Brief*
!  Trading*between*Available*CapabiliAes*(Eg:*HW,*SW,*Analogue)*
!  UAlising*his/her*wider*sphere*of*knowledge,*knowFhow*and*experience*
*...**Not*all*implementaAons*are*‘equally*good’*
*...*InnovaAon*is*(&*will*remain)*a*Fundamental*Engineering*role*

20
Conclusions$
!  CapabiliIes$link$Research$outcomes$to$Products$…$
!  Research*establishes*Capabili?es;*Development*uses*them*
!  Technologies*provide*opAons*for*future*products;*but*not*all**
will*be*valuable*in*all*Products*
!  CapabiliIes$Limit$a$Companies$Product$Possibili-es$
!  Capabili?es*are*InstalledETechnology"modules;*ready*for*Engineers*to*use*to*create*a*Product,"
and*for"Business*to*depend*upon*
!  CapabiliIes)make$the$Product$Development$Process$predictable$
!  Technologies*may*not*offer*benefit*in*excess*of*their*wholeFcost*(not*just*$)*
!  Technology*and*Science*are*opportuniAes*for*‘tomorrow*and*the*day*aner’!*
!  Innova?ve*Engineers*differenAate*Products,*by*InnovaAve*use*of*CapabiliAes*
!  Not$by$the$use$of$risky$Science$or$Technology$(Unless$desperate)$
!  The)Successful)ExploitaIon)of$a$Technology)funds$its$whole$lifeTcycle$...$$
!  WHEN"EndECustomers*buy*Products*incorporaAng/uAlising*the*Technology!*
!  BUT*EndFCustomers*don’t*buy*Technology,*they*buy*soluAons*to*THEIR*Needs!*
!  AND*They*don’t*see*or*care*(much)*about*the*Technology*inside*

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