Exposure

Transaction Exposure
Eiteman et al., Chapter 8
Winter 2004
Foreign Exchange Exposure
Foreign exchange exposure measures the potential for a firm’s
• profitability
• net cash flow
• market value
to change because of a change in exchange rates.
2

Types of Foreign Exchange Exposure
Transaction exposure measures changes in the value of financial
obligations incurred before a change in exchange rates but to be
settled after the change.
Operating exposure, or economic exposure, measures the change
in the present value of the firm resulting from any change in
expected future operating cash flows caused by an unexpected
change in exchange rates.
3
Types of Foreign Exchange Exposure
Translation exposure, or accounting exposure measures the
potential losses or gains that would appear on the consolidated
financial statements following a change in exchange rates.
Tax exposure measures the tax consequences of foreign exchange
exposure.
4

Why Hedge?
Hedging is the taking of a position, acquiring either a cash flow,
an asset, or a contract (including a forward contract) that will rise
(fall) in value and offset a fall (rise) in the value of an existing
position.
• Hedging protects from a potential loss.
• Hedging reduces the variance of future cash flows.
5
Arguments against Currency Hedging
• Shareholders are better than management at diversifying
risk.
• Currency risk management does not increase expected future
cash flows; it usually consumes some of the firm’s resources
and thus reduces future cash flows.
• Hedging activities may benefit management at the expense
of shareholders.
6

Arguments against Currency Hedging
• If the market is at equilibrium, then the net present value of
hedging is zero.
• Management may prefer hedging costs to unhedged losses.
• If markets are efficient, foreign exchange risks are reflected
in stock prices.
7
Arguments in Favor of Currency Hedging
• Reducing risk improves the planning capability of the firm.
• Reducing future cash flow variability reduces the risk of
financial distress.
• Management understand the firm’s risks better than
shareholders.
• Markets are usually not at equilibrium.
8

Transaction Exposure: Types of Exposure
1. Purchasing or selling on credit when prices are stated in a
foreign currency.
2. Borrowing or lending funds when repayment is to be made
in a foreign currency.
3. Being a party to an unperformed foreign exchange forward
contract.
4. Acquiring assets or incurring liabilities denominated in a
foreign currency.
9
Purchasing or Selling on Open Account: An Example
A U.S. ﬁrm sells merchandise on open account to a Belgian
buyer for €1,800,000, payment to be made in 60 days.
Current exchange rate is $1.1200/€.
Seller expects to receive
€1,800,000×$1.1200/€ = $2,016,000.
Transaction exposure:
If the euro weakens, the seller will receive less than $2,016,000.
If the euro appreciates, the seller will receive more than
$2,016,000.
10

Purchasing or Selling on Open Account
Life span of a transaction exposure: Show Exhibit 8.3
11
Borrowing and Lending: An Example
PepsiCo’s largest bottler outside the US is located in Mexico,
Grupo Embotellador de Mexico (Gemex)
December 94: Gemex had US dollar denominated debt of $264
million. The Mexican peso (Ps$) is pegged at Ps$3.45/US$
December 22, 94: The peso is allowed to ﬂoat due to internal
pressures and sinks to Ps$4.65/US$
Peso traded at around Ps$5.50/US$ for most of January.
12

Borrowing and Lending: An Example
Gemex’s peso obligations:
• Mid-December, 1994:
US$264,000,000×Ps$3.45/US$ = Ps$910,800,000.
• Mid-January, 1995:
US$264,000,000×Ps$5.50/US$ = Ps$1,452,000,000
Gemex’s dollar obligation has increased by 59%.
13
Being a Party to a Forward Contract: An Example
When a ﬁrm buys a forward exchange contract, it deliberately
creates transaction exposure; this risk is incurred to hedge an
existing exposure.
A ﬁrm offsetting a transaction exposure of 100 million, say, to
pay for an import from Japan in 90 days, can purchase 100
million in the forward market.
The counterparty to this transaction now faces foreign exchange
exposure.
14

Types of Hedges
Contractual Hedge: Forward, money, futures and options
market hedges.
Operating Hedge: Risk-sharing agreements, leads and lags in
payment terms, swaps, and other strategies.
Natural Hedge: Offsetting operating cash flows.
Financial Hedge: Offsetting debt obligation or some type of
financial derivative such as a swap.
15
Transaction Exposure Example
Dayton, a U.S.-based manufacturer of gas turbine equipment, has
just concluded negotiations for the sale of a turbine generator to a
British firm for the sum of £1,000,000.
The sale is concluded in March but payment will be made three
months later, in June.
16

Assumptions
• Spot exchange rate: $1.7640/£.
• Three-month forward rate: $1.7540/£.
• Dayton’s cost of capital: 12%.
• U.K. three-month borrowing (lending) rate: 10% (8%) per
annum.
• U.S. three-month borrowing (lending) rate: 8% (6%) per
annum.
17
Assumptions
• June put option: £1,000,000; $1.75 strike price; 1.5%
premium.
• June put option: £1,000,000; $1.71 strike price; 1.0%
premium.
• Dayton’s forecast of the spot rate in June: $1.76/£.
• Dayton’s minimum acceptable exchange rate: $1.7000/£.
18

Dayton can:
• Remain unhedged
• Hedge in the forward market
• Hedge in the money market
• Hedge in the options market
19
Transaction Exposure Example: Unhedged Position
Suppose Dayton decides to accept the transaction risk.
If the future spot rate is $1.76/£, Dayton will receive
£1,000,000×$1.76/£ = $1,760,000
in 3 months.
However, if the future spot rate is $1.65/£, then Dayton will
receive only $1,650,000, well below the acceptable rate.
20

Transaction Exposure Example: Forward Market Hedge
The forward contract is entered at the time the A/R is created, i.e.
in March.
The sale is recorded at the spot rate, in this case $1.7640/£.
If Dayton does not have an offsetting A/P of the same amount,
then the ﬁrm is considered uncovered.
21
Transaction Exposure Example: Forward Market Hedge
Hedging in the forward market here means selling £1,000,000
forward at the 3-month forward rate of $1.7540/£.
In 3 months, Dayton will received £1,000,000 and exchange
them at the rate $1.7540/£, receiving $1,754,000 with certainty.
This is $6,000 less than the uncertain $1,760,000 expected from
the unhedged position.
The forward contract creates a foreign exchange loss of $10,000
(£1,000,000×(1.7640−1.7540)).
22

Transaction Exposure Example: Money Market Hedge
A money market hedge also includes a contract and a source of
funds, similar to a forward contract.
In this case, the contract is a loan agreement.
The ﬁrm borrows in one currency and exchanges the proceeds for
another currency.
Hedges can be left “open” (i.e. no investment) or “closed” (i.e.
investment).
23
To hedge in the money market, Dayton will borrow pounds in
London, convert the pounds to dollars and repay the pound loan
with the proceeds from the sale.
To calculate how much to borrow, Dayton needs to discount the
PV of the £1,000,000, i.e.
£1,000,000
1.025
= £975,610.
Thus Dayton must borrow £975,610 today and repay £1,000,000
in 3 months with the proceeds from the sale.
24

This hedge creates a pound denominated liability that offsets
with a pound denominated asset, thus creating a balance sheet
hedge.
Assets Liabilities and Equity
A/R £1,000,000 Bank Loan (principal) £975,610
Interest payable £24,390
Total £1,000,000
25
In order to compare the forward hedge with the money market
hedge, Dayton must analyze the use of the loan proceeds.
What can Dayton do with the loan?
It can exchange the £975,610 at the spot rate of $1.7640/£, which
gives $1,720,976, and invest it in a US$-denominated asset.
Unlike the funds involved in a forward contract, the loan amount
can be used immediately.
26

The loan proceeds can be:
• Invested at the US rate of 6.0% per annum;
• Used instead of a loan that would have otherwise been taken
for working capital needs at the rate of 8.0% per annum;
• Invested in the ﬁrm itself, the cost of capital being 12.0% per
annum.
27
Payoff to each alternative:
Alternative Value in 3 Months
T-bill $1,720,976×1.015 = $1,746,791
Working capital $1,720,976×1.020 = $1,755,396
In the ﬁrm $1,720,976×1.030 = $1,772,605
28

Note that the forward hedge yields $1,754,000 in three months.
The money market hedge is superior to the forward hedge if the
proceeds are used to replace a dollar loan (8%) or conduct
general business operations (12%).
If Dayton could only invest in T-bills (6%), the forward hedge
would be preferable.
29
Money Market Hedge: Break-Even Rate of Return
At what annual rate r is the money market hedge equivalent to
the forward market hedge?
We want
$1,720,976× 1+
r
4
= $1,754,000,
which gives
r = 4×
$1,754,000
$1,720,976
−1 = 7.68%.
30

More generally, using continuous compounding, let
r ≡ Domestic interest rate (per annum)
ρ ≡ Foreign interest rate (per annum)
T ≡ Period of time until payment is received or made
P ≡ Size of payment, in foreign currency
S ≡ Actual spot rate ($/FC)
FT ≡ T-forward rate ($/FC)
31
If P is to be received at time T, then
Pe−ρT
can be borrowed in foreign currency today. In domestic currency,
this means
SPe−ρT
.
32

Investing SPe−ρT in a domestic asset yields
SPe−ρT
×erT
= SPe(r−ρ)T
at time T. For this money market hedge to be superior to the
forward hedge, we need
SPe(r−ρ)T
> PFT ⇔ Se(r−ρ)T
> FT .
33
If the transaction involves a cash outﬂow at time T, then the
previous values are costs and the money market hedge is superior
to the forward only if
SPe(r−ρ)T
< PFT ⇔ Se(r−ρ)T
< FT .
34

In the last example, we used future values. We could have also
used present values. That is, the present value of the money
market hedge is SPe−ρT and the present value of the forward
hedge is PFT e−rT .
Note that
SPe−ρT
≤ PFT e−rT
⇔ Se(r−ρ)T
≤ FT .
35
Transaction Exposure Example: Options Market Hedge
Dayton could also cover the £1,000,000 exposure by purchasing
a put option.
This limits the downside risk while allowing for gains if the
pound appreciates.
3-month put option with strike price $1.75/£ sells at a 1.5%
premium.
36

Transaction Exposure Example: Options Market Hedge
Using this notation, the price of the option is
Notional Principal×Premium×Spot Rate
In the present example, this means
£1,000,000×0.015×$1.7640/£ = $26,460.
37
Transaction Exposure Example: Options market hedge
Because we are using future value to compare the various
hedging alternatives, it is necessary to project the cost of the
option in 3 months.
Using the ﬁrm’s cost of capital, 12% p.a. (3.0% per quarter), the
cost of the option as of June will be
$26,460×1.03 = $27,254.
The option won’t be exercised if the spot rate in three months is
greater than $1.75/£.
38

Let S3 (in $/£) denote the spot rate in three months.
The ﬁrm’s payoff with this option in three months is then
£1,000,000×S3 − $27,254 if S3 ≥ $1.75/£,
$1,750,000−$27,254 = $1,722,746 if S3 < $1.75/£,
The downside payoff is less than that of the forward or money
market hedge, but the upside potential is unlimited.
39
If, for example, the expected rate of $1.76/£ materializes, the
ﬁrm’s payoff is
£1,000,000×$1.76/£ − $27,254 = $1,760,000 − $27,254
= $1,732,746.
40

Options Market Hedge: Break-Even Spot Rate
What must S3 be for the $1.75/£ put with 1.5% premium to be
more proﬁtable than the forward contract?
£1,000,000×S3 − $27,254 ≥ $1,754,000
⇒ S3 ≥
$1,754,000 + $27,254
£1,000,000
= $1.7813/£.
41
Options Market Hedge: Break-Even Spot Rates
What must S3 be for the $1.75/£ put with 1.5% premium to be
more proﬁtable than remaining uncovered?
£1,000,000×$1.75/£ − $27,254 ≥ $1,000,000×S3
⇒ S3 ≤
$1,750,000 − $27,254
£1,000,000
= $1.7227/£.
42

Strategy Choice and Outcome
Dayton, like all ﬁrms, must decide on a strategy. Which one to
choose?
Two criteria can be utilized to select a strategy:
• Risk tolerance of the ﬁrm, as expressed in its stated policies.
• Firm’s own view on the expected direction and distance of
the exchange rate.
43
Hedging Strategy Outcome
Remain uncovered unknown ($1,760,000 exp.)
Forward contract at $1.7540/£ $1,754,000
Money market hedge at 8% p.a. $1,755,396
Money market hedge at 12% p.a. $1,772,605
$1.75/£ Put at 1.5%premium
Minimum if exercised $1,722,746
Maximum if not exercised unlimited
44

Managing an Account Payable
Suppose now that the £1,000,000 is an account payable in 90
days.
If the firm remains uncovered, then it will pay £1,000,000×S3
in 90 days, where S3 is the spot rate in $/£ in 90 days.
If S3 = $1.76/£, the firm will pay $1,760,000 but this amount is
not certain.
45
Managing an Account Payable
Forward market hedge: The firm can purchase a forward contract
locking in the $1.754/£ rate, fixing their obligation at $1,754,000.
Money market hedge: In the case, the pound liability has to be
counterbalanced by a pound asset with the same maturity. Here
the firm would exchange US dollars spot and invest the pounds
for 90 days.
46

Managing an A/P–Money Market Hedge
To obtain exactly £1,000,000 in three months at the U.K. lending
rate of 8% per annum, the ﬁrm must invest
£1,000,000
1+.08× 90
360
= £980,392.16 .
At the current spot rate of $1.7640/£, this means
980,392.16×1.7640 = $1,729,411.77 .
47
Managing an A/P–Money Market Hedge
Carrying forward this amount of money at the ﬁrm’s cost of
capital gives
$1,729,411.77×1.03 = $1,781,294.12,
which is higher than the cost of the forward hedge.
48

Managing an A/P–Option Hedge
This strategy consists a buying a call option on the payable.
Consider a call option with strike price of $1,75/£ and 1.5%
premium. The cost of this option is
£1,000,000×0.015×$1.75/£ = $26,460.
Carrying this amount forward 90 days, at the ﬁrm’s cost of
capital, gives
$26,460×1.03 = $27,253.80 .
49
Managing an A/P–Option Hedge
Let S3 denote the spot exchange rate in three months in $/£.
Total expense with a $1.75/£ call at a 1.5% premium is
$1,750,000+$27,253.80 = $1,777,253.80 if S3 ≥ $1.75/£,
£1,000,000×S3 +$27,253.80 if S3 < $1.75/£,
50

Hedging Strategy Outcome (cost)
Remain uncovered unknown ($1,760,000 exp.)
Forward contract at $1.7540/£ $1,754,000
Money market hedge $1,781,294
$1.75/£ Call at 1.5%premium
Maximum if exercised $1,777,253.80
Minimum if not exercised $27, 253.80
51
Foreign Currency Accounting
In the example where Dayton manufacturing was selling a turbine to a
British ﬁrm, the sale would have been recorded at the spot rate
prevailing on the date the equipment was shipped to the British buyer.
At a spot rate of $1.7640/£, this represents a sale of
£1,000,000×$1.7640/£ = $1,764,000.
If no hedging takes place, the difference between what was booked and
what was received will enter the ﬁnancial statements as a foreign
exchange gain or loss.
52

Foreign Currency Accounting
For example, if the spot rate at the payment date is $1.7600/£, the
foreign exchange loss would be calculated as
A/R booked at $1.7640/£ $1,764,000
A/R settled at $1.7600/£ $1,760,000
Foreign exchange gain (loss) ($4,000)
Gains and losses are reported in a ﬁrm’s income statement in the
period in which they occur.
53
Accounting for Forward Contracts as Hedges
Suppose Dayton has entered a forward contract at the rate
$1.7540/£, and suppose that the spot exchange rate at the
settlement date is $1.7600/£. The details recorded in Dayton’s
books would be
54

Accounting for Forward Contracts as Hedges
Receivable
A/R booked at $1.7640/£ $1,764,000
A/R settled at $1.7600/£ $1,760,000
Foreign exchange gain (loss) ($4,000)
Forward Contract
Forward contract gain (loss) ($6,000)
($1,754,000−$1,760,000)
Total foreign exchange gain (loss) ($10,000)
55
Risk Management in Practice
Which Goals?
The treasury function of most firms is usual considered a cost
center; it is not expected to add to the bottom line.
However, in practice some firms’ treasuries have become
aggressive in currency management and act as profit centers.
56

Which Exposures?
Transaction exposures exist before they are actually booked yet
some ﬁrms do not hedge this backlog exposure.
However, some ﬁrms are selectively hedging these backlog
exposures and anticipated exposures.
57
Which Contractual Hedges?
Transaction exposure management programs are generally
divided along an “option-line”; those which use options and
those that do not.
Also, these programs vary in the amount of risk covered; these
proportional hedges are policies that state which proportion and
type of exposure is to be hedged by the treasury.
58

Exposure

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