Fault tree analysis

Fault tree analysis
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Fault tree analysis (FTA) is a top down, deductive failure analysis in which an undesired state of a
system is analyzed using Boolean logic to combine a series of lower-level events. This analysis
method is mainly used in the fields of safety engineering and reliability engineering to understand
how systems can fail, to identify the best ways to reduce risk or to determine (or get a feeling for)
event rates of a safety accident or a particular system level (functional) failure. FTA is used in
the aerospace, nuclear power, chemical and process,[1][2][3] pharmaceutical, petrochemical and other
high-hazard industries; but is also used in fields as diverse as risk factor identification relating
to social servicesystem failure.[4]
In aerospace, the more general term "system Failure Condition" is used for the "undesired state" /
Top event of the fault tree. These conditions are classified by the severity of their effects. The most
severe conditions require the most extensive fault tree analysis. These "system Failure Conditions"
and their classification are often previously determined in the functional Hazard analysis.
FTA can be used to:
 understand the logic leading to the top event / undesired state.
 show compliance with the (input) system safety / reliability requirements.
 prioritize the contributors leading to the top event - Creating the Critical Equipment/Parts/Events
lists for different importance measures.
 monitor and control the safety performance of the complex system (e.g., is a particular aircraft
safe to fly when fuel valve x malfunctions? For how long is it allowed to fly with the valve
malfunction?).
 minimize and optimize resources.
 assist in designing a system. The FTA can be used as a design tool that helps to create (output /
lower level) requirements.
 function as a diagnostic tool to identify and correct causes of the top event. It can help with the
creation of diagnostic manuals / processes.
Contents
[hide]
 1 History
 2 Methodology
 3 Graphic Symbols
o 3.1 Event Symbols
o 3.2 Gate Symbols
o 3.3 Transfer Symbols
 4 Basic Mathematical Foundation
 5 Analysis
 6 Comparison with other analytical methods
 7 See also
 8 References
History[edit]
Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) was originally developed in 1962 at Bell Laboratories by H.A. Watson,
under a U.S. Air Force Ballistics Systems Division contract to evaluate theMinuteman

I Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) Launch Control System.[5][6][7][8] The use of fault trees has
since gained widespread support and is often used as a failure analysis tool by reliability
experts.[9] Following the first published use of FTA in the 1962 Minuteman I Launch Control Safety
Study, Boeing and AVCO expanded use of FTA to the entire Minuteman II system in 1963-1964.
FTA received extensive coverage at a 1965 System Safety Symposium in Seattle sponsored by
Boeing and the University of Washington.[10] Boeing began using FTA for civil aircraft design around
1966.[11][12]
Subsequently within the U.S. military, application of FTA for use with fuzes was explored
by Picatinny Arsenal in the 1960s and 1970s.[13] In 1976 the U.S. Army Material Command
incorporated FTA into an Engineering Design Handbook on Design for Reliability.[14] The Reliability
Analysis Center at Rome Laboratory and its successor organizations now with the Defense
Technical Information Center (Reliability Information Analysis Center and now Defense Systems
Information Analysis Center,http://theriac.org/)has published documents on FTA and reliability block
diagrams since the 1960s.[15][16][17] MIL-HDBK-338B provides a more recent reference.[18]
In 1970, the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) published a change to
14 CFR 25.1309 airworthiness regulations for transport category aircraft in the Federal Register at
35 FR 5665 (1970-04-08). This change adopted failure probability criteria for aircraft systems and
equipment and led to widespread use of FTA in civil aviation. In 1998, the FAA published Order
8040.4,[19] establishing risk management policy including hazard analysis in a range of critical
activities beyond aircraft certification, including air traffic controland modernization of the
U.S. National Airspace System. This led to the publication of the FAA System Safety Handbook,
which describes the use of FTA in various types of formal hazard analysis.[20]
Within the nuclear power industry, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission began
using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methods including FTA in 1975, and significantly
expanded PRA research following the 1979 incident at Three Mile Island.[21] This eventually led to the
1981 publication of the NRC Fault Tree Handbook NUREG–0492,[22] and mandatory use of PRA
under the NRC's regulatory authority.
Following process industry disasters such as the 1984 Bhopal disaster and 1988 Piper
Alpha explosion, in 1992 the United States Department of Labor Occupational Safety and Health
Administration (OSHA) published in the Federal Register at 57 FR 6356 (1992-02-24) its Process
Safety Management (PSM) standard in 19 CFR 1910.119.[23] OSHA PSM recognizes FTA as an
acceptable method for process hazard analysis (PHA).
Today FTA is widely used in system safety and reliability engineering, and in all major fields of
engineering.
Methodology[edit]
FTA methodology is described in several industry and government standards, including NRC
NUREG–0492 for the nuclear power industry, an aerospace-oriented revision to NUREG–0492 for
use by NASA,[24] SAE ARP4761 for civil aerospace, MIL–HDBK–338 for military
systems, IEC standard IEC 61025[25] is intended for cross-industry use and has been adopted as
European Norm EN 61025.
Since no system is perfect, dealing with a subsystem fault is a necessity, and any working system
eventually will have a fault in some place. However, the probability for a complete or partial success
is greater than the probability of a complete failure or partial failure. Assembling a FTA is thus not as
tedious as assembling a success tree which can turn out to be very time consuming.
Because assembling a FTA can be a costly and cumbersome experience, the perfect method is to
consider subsystems. In this way dealing with smaller systems can assure less error work
probability, less system analysis. Afterward, the subsystems integrate to form the well analyzed big
system.

An undesired effect is taken as the root ('top event') of a tree of logic. The logic to get to the right top
events can be diverse. One type of analysis that can help with this is called the functional hazard
analysis, based on Aerospace Recommended Practise. There should be only one Top Event and all
concerns must tree down from it. Then, each situation that could cause that effect is added to the
tree as a series of logic expressions. When fault trees are labeled with actual numbers about failure
probabilities, computer programscan calculate failure probabilities from fault trees. When a specific
event is found to have more than one effect event, i.e. it has impact on several subsystems, it is
called a common cause or common mode. Graphically speaking, it means this event will appear at
several locations in the tree. Common causes introduce dependency relations between events. The
probability computations of a tree which contains some common causes are much more complicated
than regular trees where all events are considered as independent. Not all software tools available
on the market provide such capability.
A fault tree diagram
The Tree is usually written out using conventional logic gate symbols. The route through a tree
between an event and an initiator in the tree is called a Cut Set. The shortest credible way through
the tree from fault to initiating event is called a Minimal Cut Set.
Some industries use both fault trees and event trees (see Probabilistic Risk Assessment). An Event
Tree starts from an undesired initiator (loss of critical supply, component failure etc.) and follows
possible further system events through to a series of final consequences. As each new event is
considered, a new node on the tree is added with a split of probabilities of taking either branch. The
probabilities of a range of 'top events' arising from the initial event can then be seen.
Classic programs include the Electric Power Research Institute's (EPRI) CAFTA software, which is
used by many of the US nuclear power plants and by a majority of US and international aerospace
manufacturers, and the Idaho National Laboratory's SAPHIRE, which is used by the U.S.
Government to evaluate the safety and reliability of nuclear reactors, the Space Shuttle, and
the International Space Station. Outside the US, the software RiskSpectrum is a popular tool for
Fault Tree and Event Tree analysis and is licensed for use at almost half of the worlds nuclear power
plants for Probabilistic Safety Assessment.
Graphic Symbols[edit]
The basic symbols used in FTA are grouped as events, gates, and transfer symbols. Minor
variations may be used in FTA software.
Event Symbols[edit]
Event symbols are used for primary events and intermediate events. Primary events are not further
developed on the fault tree. Intermediate events are found at the output of a gate. The event
symbols are shown below:


Basic event

External event

Undeveloped event

Conditioning event


Intermediate event
The primary event symbols are typically used as follows:
 Basic event - failure or error in a system component or element (example: switch stuck in open
position)
 External event - normally expected to occur (not of itself a fault)
 Undeveloped event - an event about which insufficient information is available, or which is of no
consequence
 Conditioning event - conditions that restrict or affect logic gates (example: mode of operation in
effect)
An intermediate event gate can be used immediately above a primary event to provide more room to
type the event description. FTA is top to bottom approach.
Gate Symbols[edit]
Gate symbols describe the relationship between input and output events. The symbols are derived
from Boolean logic symbols:

OR gate

AND gate


Exclusive OR gate

Priority AND gate

Inhibit gate
The gates work as follows:
 OR gate - the output occurs if any input occurs
 AND gate - the output occurs only if all inputs occur (inputs are independent)
 Exclusive OR gate - the output occurs if exactly one input occurs
 Priority AND gate - the output occurs if the inputs occur in a specific sequence specified by a
conditioning event
 Inhibit gate - the output occurs if the input occurs under an enabling condition specified by a
conditioning event
Transfer Symbols[edit]
Transfer symbols are used to connect the inputs and outputs of related fault trees, such as the fault
tree of a subsystem to its system.


Transfer in

Transfer out
Basic Mathematical Foundation[edit]
Events in a fault tree are associated with statistical probabilities. For example, component failures
typically occur at some constant failure rate λ (a constant hazard function). In this simplest case,
failure probability depends on the rate λ and the exposure time t:
P = 1 - exp(-λt)
P ≈ λt, λt < 0.1
A fault tree is often normalized to a given time interval, such as a flight hour or an average
mission time. Event probabilities depend on the relationship of the event hazard function to
this interval.
Unlike conventional logic gate diagrams in which inputs and outputs hold the binary values
of TRUE (1) or FALSE (0), the gates in a fault tree output probabilities related to theset
operations of Boolean logic. The probability of a gate's output event depends on the input
event probabilities.
An AND gate represents a combination of independent events. That is, the probability of any
input event to an AND gate is unaffected by any other input event to the same gate. In set
theoretic terms, this is equivalent to the intersection of the input event sets, and the
probability of the and gate output is given by:
P (A and B) = P (A ∩ B) = P(A) P(B)
An OR gate, on the other hand, corresponds to set union:
P (A or B) = P (A ∪ B) = P(A) + P(B) - P (A ∩ B)
Since failure probabilities on fault trees tend to be small (less than .01), P (A ∩ B)
usually becomes a very small error term, and the output of an OR gate may be
conservatively approximated by using an assumption that the inputs are mutually
exclusive events:
P (A or B) ≈ P(A) + P(B), P (A ∩ B) ≈ 0

An exclusive OR gate with two inputs represents the probability that one or the
other input, but not both, occurs:
P (A xor B) = P(A) + P(B) - 2P (A ∩ B)
Again, since P (A ∩ B) usually becomes a very small error term, the
exclusive OR gate has limited value in a fault tree.
Analysis[edit]
Many different approaches can be used to model a FTA, but the most
common and popular way can be summarized in a few steps. A single fault
tree is used to analyze one and only one undesired event or top event,
which may be subsequently fed into another fault tree as a basic event.
Though the nature of the undesired event may vary dramatically, a FTA
follows the same procedure for any undesired event; be it a delay of 0.25
msec for the generation of electrical power, an undetected cargo bay fire, or
the random, unintended launch of an ICBM. Due to labor cost, FTA is
normally only performed for more serious undesired events.
FTA analysis involves five steps:
1. Define the undesired event to study
 Definition of the undesired event can be very hard to catch,
although some of the events are very easy and obvious to
observe. An engineer with a wide knowledge of the design of
the system or a system analyst with an engineering
background is the best person who can help define and
number the undesired events. Undesired events are used then
to make the FTA, one event for one FTA; no two events will be
used to make one FTA.
2. Obtain an understanding of the system
 Once the undesired event is selected, all causes with
probabilities of affecting the undesired event of 0 or more are
studied and analyzed. Getting exact numbers for the
probabilities leading to the event is usually impossible for the
reason that it may be very costly and time consuming to do so.
Computer software is used to study probabilities; this may lead
to less costly system analysis.
System analysts can help with understanding the overall
system. System designers have full knowledge of the system
and this knowledge is very important for not missing any cause
affecting the undesired event. For the selected event all causes
are then numbered and sequenced in the order of occurrence
and then are used for the next step which is drawing or
constructing the fault tree.
3. Construct the fault tree
 After selecting the undesired event and having analyzed the
system so that we know all the causing effects (and if possible
their probabilities) we can now construct the fault tree. Fault
tree is based on AND and OR gates which define the major
characteristics of the fault tree.
4. Evaluate the fault tree

 After the fault tree has been assembled for a specific undesired
event, it is evaluated and analyzed for any possible
improvement or in other words study the risk management and
find ways for system improvement. This step is as an
introduction for the final step which will be to control the
hazards identified. In short, in this step we identify all possible
hazards affecting in a direct or indirect way the system.
5. Control the hazards identified
 This step is very specific and differs largely from one system to
another, but the main point will always be that after identifying
the hazards all possible methods are pursued to decrease the
probability of occurrence.
Comparison with other analytical methods[edit]
FTA is a deductive, top-down method aimed at analyzing the effects of
initiating faults and events on a complex system. This contrasts with failure
mode and effects analysis(FMEA), which is an inductive, bottom-up
analysis method aimed at analyzing the effects of single component or
function failures on equipment or subsystems. FTA is very good at showing
how resistant a system is to single or multiple initiating faults. It is not good
at finding all possible initiating faults. FMEA is good at exhaustively
cataloging initiating faults, and identifying their local effects. It is not good at
examining multiple failures or their effects at a system level. FTA considers
external events, FMEA does not.[26] In civil aerospace the usual practice is
to perform both FTA and FMEA, with a failure mode effects
summary (FMES) as the interface between FMEA and FTA.
Alternatives to FTA include dependence diagram (DD), also known
as reliability block diagram (RBD) and Markov analysis. A dependence
diagram is equivalent to a success tree analysis (STA), the logical inverse
of an FTA, and depicts the system using paths instead of gates. DD and
STA produce probability of success (i.e., avoiding a top event) rather than
probability of a top event.
See also[edit]
Wikimedia Commons has
media related to Fault tree
diagrams.
 Root cause analysis
 Ishikawa diagram
 Why-Because analysis
References[edit]
1. Jump up^

Fault tree analysis

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