Final_YSU_MichiganSubmission
- 1. 1 “World leader in the international seaborne transportation of crude oil.” OCTOBER 2016
- 2. 2 OUTLINE FRONTLINE AT A GLANCE INDUSTRY OVERVIEW INVESTMENT DRIVERS VALUATION & CONSIDERATIONS APPENDIX
- 3. 3 COUNTRIES OF OPERATIONS KEY CORPORATE FACTS AS OF Q2 2016 FRO: WORLD LEADER FLEET OF 54 SHIPS* VLCC (24) MR (2) LR2 (14) Suezmax (14) NEWBUILD SCHEDULE: 6 in 2016 14 in 2017 INCORPORATED ON JULY 12TH , 1992 HEADQUARTERED IN BURMUDA Transfers crude and refined oil throughout the world Recent merger with Frontline 2012 Majority of revenues earned through time charters and spot contracts Balanced fleet = Reduced risk John Fredriksen - President and Chairman of the board since 1997 United States, Canada, and US territories Far East Asia and Indian Ocean West Africa Middle East Northern Europe *Frontline — Q2 All other 2015/20-F Fleet excludes 6 MR tankers being sold in Q3 in 2016 Includes 2 VLCC acquisitions - September 2016 and January 2017 Excludes 4 VLCC from newbuild due to uncertainty Sources for all content: FRO 20-F
- 4. 4 OUTLINE FRONTLINE AT A GLANCE INDUSTRY OVERVIEW INVESTMENT DRIVERS VALUATION & CONSIDERATIONS APPENDIX
- 5. 5 Company TCE Average Revenue 2015 ($/Day) Overview Nordic American Tankers Ltd. $37,228 Founded in 1995, Nordic operates globally using only Suezmax tankers to distribute oil to their clients. Being able to interchange assets sets them apart from their competition. Teekay Tankers Ltd. $29,733 Formed by Teekay Corporation in 2007, they have grown as an industry competitor from 980,000 DWT to 7,650,000 DWT capacity. Through time charters, ship to ship services, spot market, and pooling arrangements, Teekay Tankers generates revenue from a myriad of sources. Gener8 Maritime Inc. $25,245 Engaging in pooling arrangements and newbuilds of VLCCs, Gener8 Maritime employs a unique strategy with 91% of their operations coming from the spot market through pooling arrangements. Tsakos Energy Navigation Limited $25,940 Headquarted in Greece, Tsakos provides services to high quality oil companies throughout the world. Relationship building through Tsakos Columbia Shipmanagment and Tsakos Shipping provides more access to ships not owned by the company. Overseas Shipholding Group Inc. $34,470 United States company headquartered in New York which charters oil and petroleum (LNG) on a global scale. A diversified ship fleet gives rise to competitive advantage. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE The competitive landscape of the oil tanking industry includes global corporations that operate in the spot and fixed charter markets independent from multi-national oil companies. Their fleets consist of multiple sized ships providing both refined and crude products, and serve the world’s developed markets and emerging economies. Sources for all content: FRO, NAT, TNK, TNP 20-F and GNRT,OSG 10-K
- 6. 6 SPOT VERSUS CHARTER MARKET Spot Market : A volatile source of revenue that fluctuates based on oil demand, supply, and industry capacity, The time frame for a contract can last from a couple of days to several weeks. As demand for oil increases, demand for tankers increases to transport the products around the world. This, in turn, drives TCE rates higher. As supply increases, demand for tanker ships increases for storage purposes. Frontline diversifies themselves among others by employing 59% of their ships within the spot market. Time Charter Market: A steady stream of income from charterers. This entails a nation, oil company, or other entity signing an agreement to hire a vessel for a specified period of time under a specific rate. Under Frontline’s strategy, they employ 41% of their ships through the fixed market. FRO: SPOT TO FIXED FLEET DISTRIBUTION 2015 Sources for all content: FRO 20-F
- 7. 7 DETERMINATES OF REVENUE: Dirty vs Clean Cargo The Baltic indices track daily charter rates that drive oil tanker revenue. These rates are determine by the prices commodity producers pay to have their goods shipped by sea. The Baltic Clean Index (BCIY:IND) displays the revenue intake from the shipment of refined oil products while the Baltic Dirty Index (BDIY:IND) shows the revenue intake from the shipment of crude oil products. Frontline hedges risk by balancing their ship fleet to handle both crude and refined products. Sources for all content: Lloyds Intelligence and EIA
- 8. 8 MR TCE SPOT MARKET EARNINGS (in thousands) VLCC TCE SPOT MARKET EARNINGS (in thousands) SUEXMAX TCE SPOT MARKET EARNINGS (in thousands) SPOT MARKET EARNINGS IN RELATION TO ECONOMIC INDICATORS Historical global data indicates that world GDP and oil demand growth have a strong positive correlation – with increased economic growth there is an increased need to consume oil. Spot market rates generally follow oil demand growth. With World GDP increasing by 2.46% from 2014 to 2015, Frontline has experienced higher time charter equivalency rates in the spot market. As Frontline’s fleet is 59% percent part of the spot market, revenue is derived from the improved rates. Sources for all content: TNP 20-F
- 9. 9 OIL CAPTURES 32.9% OF GLOBAL ENERGY MARKET AVG. FORECASTED QUARTERLY PERCENT CHANGE IN DEMAND Third quarter’s growth is predominately due to seasonality in the industry. In OECD coun- tries, there is a high de- mand for heating oil in winter. WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY ENERGY 1990-2040 (QUADRILLION BTU) AVG. FORECASTED QUARTERLY GROWTH IN DEMAND Annual rGDP growth in the United States, China, and India indicate their need to increase consumption of crude oil. Worldwide, consumption rates of liquid fuels are expected to improve 1.14% per year to meet a growth rate of 3.3% per year. Petroleum products include transportation fuels, heating oil and electricity generation, asphalt and road oil, and feedstock for chemicals and plastics. United States primarily uses oil for gasoline (76%) and heating oil (21%). rGDPGROWTHRATES,2012-2040(AVG.%CHANGE) Sources for all content: EIA
- 10. 10 OIL: WORLD’S LEADING FUEL OVER 1,100 BARRELS OF OIL ARE CONSUMED PER SECOND WORLDWIDE INDIA 3.66 MILLION B/D RUSSIA 3.49 MILLION B/D CHINA 10.48 MILLION B/DMIDDLE EAST 10.00 MILLION B/D UNITED STATES AND CANADA 21.44 MILLION B/D EUROPE 13.70 MILLION B/D BRAZIL 3.00 MILLION B/D AFRICA 4.50 MILLION B/D FRO VLCC ROUTE FRO NON-VLCC ROUTE Frontline’s investment in VLCC, Suezmax, and LR2 vessels position it to capture increasing refined and crude oil consumption de- mands in emerging markets such as India, China, Brazil, and Africa. These markets’ expected demand growth is due to improve- ments in motorization rates, refinery production, and technological development. Frontline’s routes also allow for a secure market share in developed countries’ energy demand. Sources for all content: FRO 20-F and EIA
- 11. 11 US EXPERIENCES HIGHEST AUTOMOBILE SALES IN HISTORY US Motor Vehicle Sales in 2015 reached an all-time high of 17.39 million units sold (5.8% increase from 2014) with truck (56.7% market share) outselling cars (43.3%). Light truck sales have increased nearly 13% over 2014. Looking ahead, forecasters such as WardsAuto see 2016 motor vehicle sales reaching another historic high. Consumers are showing buying preferences for less fuel efficient vehicles. With light trucks being 27% less fuel efficient than passenger cars, this indicates that depressed national retail gas prices of approximately $2.19 have encouraged consumers to be more tolerant of less fuel efficient vehicles. “US drivers set record of 3.1 trillion miles in 2015” -Department of Transportation “4% growth in motorization rate to 808 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants” -International Organizations of Motor Vehicle Manufactures US VEHICLE SALES, 2015 FORECASTED US VEHICLE SALES Sources for all content: Auto Alliance
- 12. 12 NORTHERN US BRACES FOR “EXCEPTIONALLY COLD WINTER” With nearly 25% of Americans - predominately residing in the Northeast - relying on heating oil to warm their homes in the winter and the Farmer’s Almanac predicting an “exceptionally cold” winter (potentially reaching 40 degrees below zero in February) for the Northern Plains, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, Middle Atlantic, Northeast, and New England, predictions can be made that there may be increase in the consumption of heating oil. Forecasters predict that heating oil will hold steady at near-historic low of 1.45USD/GAL over the next twelves months, further encouraging consumption. FORECASTED US HEATING OIL RATES ($/GAL) Sources for all content: EIA, Farmer’s Almanac
- 13. 13 OIL CAPTURES 96% OF GLOBAL TRANSPORTATION ENERGY MARKET 94% of the projected growth in world transportation energy consumption is seen in the non-OECD countries; predominately in India, China, and Brazil. China’s demand alone for oil is expected to increase by 2.7% a year. Currently, China is investing in stockpiles of oil to meet future consumption needs with the expectation that demand will soon outstrip the available supply. World motorization rates have improved by 25% since last year as the standard of living in developing countries rise and encourage consumers purchase personal vehicles. This is reflected in the growth of vehicle sales in the past year. WORLD ENERGY DEMAND BY ENERGY SOURCE (BTU) HISTORICAL WORLD CONSUMPTION OF OIL GROWTH IN SALES OF VEHICLES BY COUNTRY Sources for all content: TNP 20-F, OICA, and EIA
- 14. 14 OUTLINE FRONTLINE AT A GLANCE INDUSTRY OVERVIEW INVESTMENT DRIVERS VALUATION & CONSIDERATIONS APPENDIX
- 15. 15 FRONTLINE LONG HISTORY OF RETURNING VALUE TO SHAREHOLDERS Ability to Capture Emerging Markets Highest Return Due to Efficient Margins Hedging Risk with Diversifying Contracts Superior Distribution of Fleet
- 16. 16 FRONTLINE LONG HISTORY OF RETURNING VALUE TO SHAREHOLDERS Ability to Capture Emerging Markets with Time Charter Equivalence Frontline holds the highest time charter equivalent rates relative to the industry. With 20 newbuilds coming online over the next year, they seek to hold the largest market share within the tanker industry. VLCC AS PERCENTAGE OF INDUSTRY* TIME CHARTER EQUIVALENCE BY COMPETITOR ($) *Frontline — Q2 All other 2015/20-F Fleet excludes 6 MR tankers being sold in Q3 in 2016 Includes 2 VLCC acquisitions - September 2016 and January 2017 Excludes 4 VLCC from newbuild due to uncertainty Relative to competitors, Frontline commands the largest market share of the VLCC fleet. VLCC tankers generate the most reve- nue in the spot market. Sources for all content: FRO 20-F ($/DAY)
- 17. 17 FRONTLINE LONG HISTORY OF RETURNING VALUE TO SHAREHOLDERS Highest Return Due to Efficient Margins The financials for Frontline fair well against their competitors. From 2014 to 2015, the overall oil tanker industry has improved. This comes from higher revenues year over year due to an oil supply glut in 2014. This has increased every competitor's margins down the line. Frontline has enjoyed this appreciation well above their competitors, beating most in nearly every category. This has contributed to low operating costs relative to net revenues. Hedging Risk with Diversifying Contracts By having a well balanced set of contracts, Frontline is able to hedge its risk against volatility in the market. Frontline is able to maintain profitability regardless of spot market fluctuations due to consistent charter rate revenues. When spot markets improve in the winter months, Frontline stands to gain from the increased prices. SPOT TO FIXED FLEET COMPARISION Sources for all content: FRO, NAT, TNK, TNP 20-F and GNRT, OSG 10-K
- 18. 18 FRONTLINE LONG HISTORY OF RETURNING VALUE TO SHAREHOLDERS Superior Distribution of Fleet Frontline’s vessels are well diversified compared to their competitors. Frontline penetrates both the refined and crude global oil tanking markets by maintaining a specialized fleet of tankers, leading to cost efficiency in expenses. Having the largest fleet, they are poised to generate increasing revenues, overall improved profitability, and return to shareholders. TOTAL FLEET COMPARISION Sources for all content: FRO, NAT, TNK, TNP 20-F and GNRT, OSG 10-K *FRO fleet excludes 6 MR tankers being sold in Q3 in 2016 Includes 2 VLCC acquisitions - September 2016 and January 2017 Excludes 4 VLCC from newbuild due to uncertainty
- 19. 19 OUTLINE FRONTLINE AT A GLANCE INDUSTRY OVERVIEW INVESTMENT DRIVERS VALUATION & CONSIDERATIONS APPENDIX
- 20. 20 TARGET PRICE’S AND POTENTIAL RETURN *Frontline -Q2 All other 2015/20-F Fleet excludes 6 MR tankers being sold in Q3 in 2016 Includes 2 VLCC acquisitions - September 2016 and January 2017 Excludes 4 VLCC from newbuild due to uncertainty Sources for all content: FRO, NAT, TNK, TNP 20-F and GNRT,OSG 10-K
- 21. 21 *Frontline - Q2 All other 2015/20-F Fleet excludes 6 MR tankers being sold in Q3 in 2016 Includes 2 VLCC acquisitions - September 2016 and January 2017 Excludes 4 VLCC from newbuild due to uncertainty Sources for all content: FRO, NAT, TNK, TNP 20-F and GNRT, OSG 10-K
- 22. 22 *Frontline -Q2 All other 2015/20-F Fleet excludes 6 MR tankers being sold in Q3 in 2016 Includes 2 VLCC acquisitions - September 2016 and January 2017 Excludes 4 VLCC from newbuild due to uncertainty Sources for all content: FRO, NAT, TNK, TNP 20-F and GNRT, OSG 10-K DRIVING ROE
- 23. 23 Sources for all content: FRO, NAT, TNK, TNP 20-F and GNRT, OSG 10-K PUBLIC COMPS
- 24. 24 PROJECTED REVENUES Projected TCE Rates are slated to fall based on company guidance and the expansion in industry capacity. Projected fleet growth will more than offset the decline in industry TCE rates in the near term Sources for all content: FRO 20-F
- 25. 25 Projected TCE Rates Below Historical Industry Averages With projected TCE rates below historical in- dustry averages, our projections leave room for error The standard deviation for clean tankers is less than crude transporters —Frontline will have a total of 22 LR2 clean tankers on the market by 2017. With lower standard deviations and less fluctuation in TCE rates these ships will garner more stable rates Though we do predict lower rates in the near term, we foresee rates returning to long term historical averages over time MARGIN OF SAFETY
- 26. 26 OUTLINE FRONTLINE AT A GLANCE INDUSTRY OVERVIEW INVESTMENT DRIVERS VALUATION & CONSIDERATIONS APPENDIX
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- 30. 30 GLOSSARY OF TERMS Aframax tanker. Tanker ranging in size from 80,000 DWT to 120,000 DWT. Baltic Clean Index. An index that tracks the market to ship refined products. Baltic Dirty Index. An index that tracks the market to ship crude oil products. Bunker Fuel. Fuel supplied to ships and aircraft in international transportation, irrespective of the flag of the carrier, consisting primarily of residual fuel oil for ships and distillate and jet fuel oils for aircraft. Charter. The hire of a vessel for a specified period of time or to carry a cargo from a loading port to a discharging port. A vessel is “chartered in” by an end user and “chartered out” by the provider of the vessel. DWT. Deadweight ton. A unit of a vessel’s capacity, for cargo, fuel oil, stores and crew, measured in metric tons of 1,000 kilograms. A vessel’s DWT or total deadweight is the total weight the vessel can carry when loaded to a particular load line. LR2. Acronym for Long Range 2 tankers ranging in size from 80,000 DWT to 160,000 DWT, a coated Afromax tanker MR. Acronym for Medium Range tankers ranging in size from 25,000 DWT to 45,000 DWT. Net voyage revenues. Voyage revenues minus voyage expenses. Newbuilding. A new vessel under construction or just completed. OECD. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slo- vakia, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. OPEC. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Gabon, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela. Panamax tanker. Tanker ranging in size from 60,000 DWT to 80,000 DWT. Scrapping. The disposal of old vessel tonnage by way of sale as scrap metal. Spot market. The market for immediate chartering of a vessel, usually on voyage charters. Suezmax tanker. Tanker ranging in size from 120,000 DWT to 200,000 DWT. Tanker. Vessel designed for the carriage of liquid cargoes in bulk with cargo space consisting of many tanks. Tankers carry a variety of products including crude oil, refined products, liquid chemicals and liquid gas. Tankers load their cargo by gravity from the shore or by shore pumps and discharge using their own pumps. TCE. Time charter equivalent. TCE is a measure of the average daily revenue performance of a vessel on a per voyage basis determined by dividing net voyage revenue by total operating days for fleet. VLCC. Acronym for Very Large Crude Carrier, or a tanker ranging in size from 200,000 DWT to 320,000 DWT.