Forecasting by Objective
- 1. AIRPORTS Forecasting Airport Forecasting Forecasting by Objective Case Study TALLINN Airport By: Mohammed S. Awad Research Scholar – Aviation Management To carry a traffic forecast for an airport is uneasy task, As most of the statistician rely on coefficient of determination R2 to ensure the fairness of the analysis. In this article we will try to create many scenarios “The only true wisdom is in that will reflects, what the top management thinks, are they interesting to knowing you know nothing.” rely on R2 ( Classical approach ), are they trying to minimize the errors by ― Socrates setting Signal Tracking to Zero, or they trying to merge long range trend forecast to be targeted ( accumulated ) for the seasonality model, or to request to reflect the most update and recent input data (recent years/months). Actually all the four scenarios are addressed, in case study of TALLINN Airport. Case Study – TALLINN Airport: Tallinn Airport (Estonian: Lennart Meri Tallinna lennujaam) (IATA: TLL, ICAO: EETN) or Lennart Meri it formerly Ülemiste Airport, is the largest airport in Estonia and home base of the national airline Estonian Air. Tallinn Airport is open to both domestic and international flights. It is located approximately 4 km from the centre of Tallinn on the eastern shore of Lake Ülemiste. As Tallinn is located nearest to Asia Pacific of all EU capitals, this gives Tallinn Airport a major geographical advantage for establishing long-haul flights between these two regions. Based on the task of top management, many targets are designed based on the most realistic forecasting result, but environment and human factors play an important role in selection the best scenario, new visual selection approach may lead also to select right scenario that can’t be defined by formula, so what is the best scenario by objective that will lead to the best forecasting decision. Is it to achieve the highest Accuracy by max R2 ? Or Targeting Signal Tracking to be Zero to minimize error ? Or Merging the trend value based on long range data ( years ) to meet the outcome results of the short range data ( months ) seasonality model, Or to select the forecasting result based on visual selection that positioning the model to align and fit for latest and recent data. Really that will lead us to examine two set of data to develop a Trend and Seasonality Models.
- 2. AIRPORTS Forecasting A- Trend Model ( 15 years data set) Based on these data a trend model is developed and with R2 = 86.1 and Signal Tracking = -1.84, the 2013 Forecasted is = 2,495,900. B- Seasonality Model ( 36 months data set ) Four Scenarios are developed as it is shown in the following table. 1- Maximize R2 2- Setting Signal Tracking = Zero 3- Setting Trend Target to 2,495,900 4- Reflects the latest Input Data ( Visual Approach ) Results : All scenarios shows high values of R2 ( all close values ) while Signal Tracking shows a large divergent with respect to the bond values and the best selection decision is scenario no. 3 (why) as it almost cover three pre-constrained parameters and also the lowest one in the results . Forecasted by Trend Target for 2013 = 2,495,900 Pax R2 = 92.22 % Signal Tracking : 6.662
- 3. AIRPORTS Forecasting Forecasting of US Airports By: Mohammed S. Awad Research Scholar – Aviation Management Airport forecasting is an important issue in Aviation industry. It becomes an integral parts of transportation planning. It sets targets and goals for the airports, either for long term or medium term planning. The primary statistical methods used in airport aviation activity forecasting are market share approach, econometric modeling, and time series modeling. While we will use R and Signal Tracking Approach Washington Dulles International Airport (IATA: IAD, ICAO: KIAD, FAA LID: IAD) is a public airport in Dulles, Virginia, 26 miles (41.6 km) west of downtown Washington, D.C. The airport serves the Baltimore-Washington-Northern Virginia metropolitan area centered on the District of Columbia. It is named after John Foster Dulles, Secretary of State under Dwight D. Eisenhower. The Dulles main terminal is a well-known landmark designed by Eero Saarinen. Operated by the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority, Dulles Airport occupies 11,830 acres (47.9 km2) straddling the border of Fairfax County and Loudoun County, Virginia. R2 = 96.1 S. T. = 0.0 2013 (F) = 11,641,322 Pax Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport (IATA: DTW, ICAO: KDTW), usually called Detroit Metro Airport, Metro Airport locally, or simply DTW, is a major international airport in the United States covering 7,072-acre (11.050 sq mi; 2,862 ha) in Romulus, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit. It is Michigan's busiest airport and one of the world's largest air transportation hubs. The airport serves as Delta's second busiest hub. Delta, along with SkyTeam partner Air France, occupy the McNamara Terminal. R2 = 92.3 S. T. = -4 2013 (F) = 16,770,937 Pax
- 4. AIRPORTS Forecasting Fort Lauderdale–Hollywood International Airport (IATA: FLL, ICAO: KFLL, FAA LID: FLL) is an international commercial airport located in unincorporated Broward County, Florida, three miles (5 km) southwest of the central business district of Fort Lauderdale. It is also located near the city of Hollywood and is 21 miles (33.7 km) north of Miami. R2 = 96.8 S. T. = 0.0 2013 (F) = 12,080,874 Pax Charlotte Douglas International Airport (IATA: CLT, ICAO: KCLT, FAA LID: CLT) is a joint civil- military public international airport located in Charlotte, North Carolina. Established in 1935 as Charlotte Municipal Airport, in 1954 the airport was renamed Douglas Municipal Airport after former Charlotte mayor Ben Elbert Douglas, Sr. The airport gained its current name in 1982 and is currently US Airways' largest hub, with service to 175 domestic and international destinations as of 2008. In 2009, it was the 9th busiest airport in the United States and in 2010, the 24th busiest airport in the world by passenger traffic. R2 = 85.6 S. T. = 0.0 2013 (F) = 21,135,269 Pax Los Angeles International Airport (IATA: LAX, ICAO: KLAX, FAA LID: LAX) is the primary airport serving the Greater Los Angeles Area, the second-most populated metropolitan area in the United States. LAX is located in southwestern Los Angeles along the Pacific coast in the neighborhood of Westchester, 16 miles (26 km) from the downtown core and is the primary airport of Los Angeles World Airports (LAWA), an agency of the Los Angeles city government formerly known as the Department of Airports. R2 = 97.7 S. T. = 4 2013 (F) = 32,269,576 Pax
- 5. AIRPORTS Forecasting Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (IATA: DFW, ICAO: KDFW, FAA LID: DFW) is located between the cities of Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas, and is the busiest airport in the U.S. state of Texas. It generally serves the Dallas–Fort Worth metropolitan area. DFW is the fourth busiest airport in the world in terms of aircraft movements. In terms of passenger traffic, it is the eighth busiest airport in the world. It is the largest hub for American Airlines. DFW Airport is considered to be an Airport City. R2 = 97.3 S. T. = 0.76 2013 (F)= 28,183,463 Pax Minneapolis–Saint Paul International Airport (IATA: MSP, ICAO: KMSP, FAA LID: MSP) is a joint civil-military public use airport. Located in a portion of Hennepin County, Minnesota outside of any city or school district, within ten miles (16 km) of both downtown Minneapolis and downtown Saint Paul, it is the largest and busiest airport in the five-state upper Midwest region of Minnesota, Iowa, South Dakota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin. R2 = 95.3 S. T. = -3 2013 (F)= 16,650,355 Pax Chicago Midway International Airport (IATA: MDW, ICAO: KMDW, FAA LID: MDW), is an airport in Chicago, Illinois, United States, located on the city's southwest side, eight miles (13 km) from Chicago's Loop. Dominated by low-cost carrier Southwest Airlines, Midway is the Dallas-based carrier's largest focus city as of 2011. Both the Stevenson Expressway and Chicago Transit Authority's Orange Line provide passengers access to downtown Chicago. Midway Airport is the second largest passenger airport in the Chicago metropolitan area, as well as the state of Illinois, after Chicago O'Hare International Airport. R2 = 96 S. T. = 4 2013 (F)= 9,397,884 Pax