Future of learning 20180425 v1

Editor's Notes

• #2: Please reuse – contact spohrer@us.ibm.com Reference: Spohrer, J (2018) Future of Learning. Wednesday April 25,, 2018 http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/future_of_learning_20180426_v1 Education and Human Resources Advisory Committee (URL: https://www.nsf.gov/ehr/advisory.jsp) The role of the Advisory Committee for the Directorate for Education and Human Resources (EHR) is to provide advice, guidance, recommendations, and oversight concerning NSF's programs for education and human resource development. This includes effective and efficient strategies for assessing the condition of science, technology, engineering and mathematics education in the U.S., evaluating program results, achieving overall program balance, and long-term strategic planning.
• #7: URL: https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-analytics/our-insights/where-is-technology-taking-the-economy
• #8: 1950 Nathaniel Rochester (IBM) 701 first commercial computer that did super-human levels of numeric calculations routinely. He worked at MIT on arithmetic unit of WhirlWind I programmable computer. Dota 2 is most recent August 11, 2017 as a super-human game player in Valve Dota 2 competition – Elon Musk’s OpenAI result. Miles Bundage tracks gaming progress: http://www.milesbrundage.com/blog-posts/my-ai-forecasts-past-present-and-future-main-post DOTA2: https://blog.openai.com/more-on-dota-2/
• #9: What is beyond Exascale? Zetta (21), Yotta (24) Time dimension (x-axis) is plus or minus 10 years…. Daniel Pakkala (VTT) URL: https://aiimpacts.org/preliminary-prices-for-human-level-hardware/ Dan Gruhl: https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/business/1983/11/06/in-pursuit-of-the-10-gigaflop-machine/012c995a-2b16-470b-96df-d823c245306e/?utm_term=.d4bde5652826   In 1983 10 GF was ~10 million.   That's 24.55 million in today's dollars.   or 2.4 billion for 1 TF in 1983   Today 1 TF is about $3k http://www.popsci.com/intel-teraflop-chip
• #10: Source: http://service-science.info/archives/4741
• #11: URL: https://www.ted.com/talks/noriko_arai_can_a_robot_pass_a_university_entrance_exam
• #14: The weakest link is what needs to be improved – according to system scientists. Accessing help, service, experts is the weakest link in most systems. By 2035 the phone may have the power of one human brain – by 2055 the phone may have the power of all human brains. Before trying to answer the question about which types of sciences are more important – the ones that try to explain the external world or the ones that try to explain the internal world – consider this, slide that shows the different telephones that I have used in my life. I grew up in rural Maine, where we had a party line telephone because we were somewhat remote on our farm in Newburgh, Maine. However, over the years phones got much better…. So in 2035 or 2055, who are you going to call when you need help?
• #15: By 2036, there will be an accumulation of knowledge as well as a distribution of knowledge in service systems globally. We need to ensure as there is knowledge accumulation that service systems at all scale become more resilient. Leading to the capability of rapid rebuilding of service systems across scales, by T-shaped people who understand how to rapidly rebuild – knowledge has been chunked, modularized, and put into networks that support rapid rebuilding.
• #16: The nature of reality changes when there is more than one intelligent species, and we are not the smartest. The nature of reality also changes when the cost of exploring alternate experience pathways are made less risky – the notions of time and identity changes as a result. Mitigate risks and harvest benefits of existence, by learning to evermore efficiently and rapidly rebuild from scratch to higher states of value and capability of entities. The evolving ecology of service system entities their value co-creation and capability co-elevation mechanisms, as well as their capabilities, constraints, rights, and responsibilities at each stage in time. Human progress as well as the development of individuals, and the arc of institutions can be viewed in this way. Entities exist as individuals and populations. Generations of entities, generations of species (populations), generations of individuals (cohorts).
• #17: URL: https://guides.github.com/activities/hello-world/
• #19: Today’s talk will explore two questions What should we know how to make? What might programming education become? If we look at history we see a time when people could make only simple things, and often a single person could make them. Would it ever be possible for a single person to know and make complex things? And what role might programming education play? Will the cognitive era – the coming era of smart machines – make people more capable or less capable to know and make complex things?
• #20: In the 1940’s IBM started teaching computer science at Columbia. My first program – punch cards 1972.
• #26: URL: http://www.mercurynews.com/2016/08/04/cupertino-teens-score-20000-for-24-hours-of-work/ Karan Mehta and Anish Krishnan
• #27: Free online cognitive classe URL: https://cognitiveclass.ai/ Here is what I tell students.... ... to try to provoke their thinking about the cognitive era:     (0) 2015 - about 9 months to build a formative Q&A system - 40% accuracy;         - another 1-2 years and a team of 10-20, can get it to 90% accuracy, by reducing the scope ("sorry that question is out of scope")         - today's systems can only answer questions, if the answers are already existing in the text explicitly         - debater is an example of where we would like to get to though in 5 years: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7g59PJxbGhY         - more about the ambitions at  http://cognitive-science.info     (1) 2025: Watson will be able to rapidly ingest just about any textbooks and produce a Q&A system         - the Q&A system will rival C-grade (average) student performance on questions     (2) 2035 - above, but rivals C-level (average) faculty performance on questions     (3) 2035 - an exascale of compute power costs about $1000         - an exascale is the equivalent compute of one person's brain power (at 20W power)     (4) 2035 - nearly everyone has a cognitive mediator that knows them in many ways better than they know themselves          - memory of all health information, memory of everyone you have ever interacted with, executive assistant, personal coach, process and memory aid, etc.     (5) 2055 - nearly everyone has 100 cognitive assistants that "work for them"         - better management of your cognitive assistant workforce is a course taught at university In 2015, we are at the beginning of the beginning or the cognitive era... In 2025, we will be middle of beginning... easy to generate average student level performance on questions in textbook.... In 2035, we will be end of beginning (one brain power equivalent)... easy to generate average faculty level performance on questions in textbook....     http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-ubi-learn-20151103-v2 By 2055, roughly 2x 20 year generations out, the cognitive era will be in full force. Cellphones will likely become body suits - with burst-mode super-strength and super-safety features: Suits - body suit cell phones Cognitive Mediators will read everything for us, and relate the information to  us - and what we know and our goals. Think combined personal coach, executive assistant, personal research team.... The key is knowing which problem to work on next - see this long video for the answer - energy, water, food, wellness -  and note especially the wellness suit at the end:     https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YY7f1t9y9a0&index=10&list=WL Do not be put off by the beginning of the video - it is a bit over hyped and trivial, to say the leasat... but the projects are really good if you have the patience to watch.
• #29: URL Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Knowledge-Rebuild-Civilization-Aftermath-Cataclysm-ebook/dp/B00DMCV5YS/ URL TED Talk: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdTzsbqQyhY Citation: Dartnell L (2012) The Knowledge: How to Rebuild Civilization in the Aftermath of a Cataclysm. Westminster London: Penguin Books. Jim Spohrer Blogs: Grand Challenge: http://service-science.info/archives/2189 Re-readings: http://service-science.info/archives/4416
• #32: Where is the variety? Hardware and even software standardizing into modules and algorithms…. Data will standardize next into categories and types…. Experience is where the uniqueness is, and variety and variability, and identity.
• #34: O*NET Online is the occupation network online, started by the US Dept of Labor in the 1990’s – it now represents one of the most comprehensive lists of occupations along with a great deal of information about each occupation, including skills, tasks, certifications, demand for these jobs, etc. O*NET lists about 1000 occupations from Accountants to Zoologists – and many job families in between. O*NET updates the descriptions of the occupations as well as adding new occupations over time. Source: http://www.onetonline.org/find/family?f=0
• #39: URL: http://www.iftf.org/fileadmin/user_upload/futureskills/downloads/IFTF_FutureSkills_Map.pdf