Future of work 2017 part three 29 May 2017 "Artificial Intelligence and Robotics: The Optimistic and the Pessimistic Views
- 1. PART THREE – 29 MAY 2017
- 2. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AND ROBOTICS: THE OPTIMISTIC AND THE PESSIMISTIC VIEWS “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” —Arthur C. Clarke’s Third Law
- 3. “COGNITIVE COLLABORATION - WHY HUMANS AND COMPUTERS THINK BETTER TOGETHER”DELOITTE 23/02/17 • “We believe that another, equally venerable, concept is long overdue for a comeback of its own: intelligence augmentation. • With intelligence augmentation, the ultimate goal is not building machines that think like humans, but designing machines that help humans think better. • The examples of AI on offer—either currently or in the foreseeable future— are all examples of narrow artificial intelligence. • “Deep” refers not to psychological depth, but to the addition of structure (“hidden layers” in the vernacular) that enables a model to capture complex, nonlinear patterns. • “Learning” refers to numerically estimating large numbers of model parameters • When commentators write that such models “learn from experience and get better,” they mean that more data result in more accurate parameter estimates. • When they claim that such models “think like humans do,” they are mistaken • It turns out that the human mind is less computer-like than originally realized, and AI is less human-like than originally hoped.
- 4. “COGNITIVE COLLABORATION - WHY HUMANS AND COMPUTERS THINK BETTER TOGETHER”DELOITTE 23/02/17 (cont.) • “AI algorithms enjoy many obvious advantages over the human mind. • Indeed, the AI pioneer Herbert Simon is also renowned for his work on bounded rationality: We humans must settle for solutions that “satisfice” rather than optimize because our memory and reasoning ability are limited. • The Nobel prize winner in Economics Daniel Kahneman calls the mind “a machine for jumping to conclusions”: Many of the mental heuristics we use to make judgments and decisions turn out to be systematically biased. • This explains the phenomenon dramatized in Michael Lewis’s Moneyball: The predictions of simple algorithms routinely beat those of well-informed human experts in a wide variety of domains. • It turns out that minds need algorithms to de-bias our judgments and decisions.”
- 5. “COGNITIVE COLLABORATION - WHY HUMANS AND COMPUTERS THINK BETTER TOGETHER”DELOITTE 23/02/17 (cont.) • “One of the fascinating things about the search for AI is that it’s been so hard to predict which parts would be easy or hard. • At first, we thought that the quintessential preoccupations of the officially smart few, like playing chess or proving theorems—the corridas of nerd machismo—would prove to be hardest for computers. In fact, they turn out to be easy. • Things every dummy can do, like recognizing objects or picking them up, are much harder. • And it turns out to be much easier to simulate the reasoning of a highly trained adult expert than to mimic the ordinary learning of every baby. • There is evidence that AI algorithms can play a role in promoting empathy. • For example, the Affectiva software is capable of inferring people’s emotional states from webcam videos of their facial expressions.” https://dupress.deloitte.com/dup-us-en/deloitte-review/issue-20/augmented-intelligence-human-computer- collaboration.html?id=us:2pm:3ad:confidence:eng:cons:em:3614:db:augintel:custom:1x1:42945981
- 6. “THE OPTIMIST’S GUIDE TO THE ROBOT APOCALYPSE” QUARTZ 09/03/17” • “Our modern fear that robots will steal all the jobs fits a classic script. Nearly 500 years ago, Queen Elizabeth I cited the same fear when she denied an English inventor named William Lee a patent for an automated knitting contraption • The lack of patent didn’t ultimately stop factories from adopting the machine. • But widespread unemployment due to technology has never materialized before. Why, argue the optimists, should this time be any different? • By the end of the 19th century, there were four times as many factory weavers as there had been in 1830 • Each human could make more than 20 times the amount of cloth that she could have 100 years earlier. So how could more textile workers be needed?”
- 7. “THE OPTIMIST’S GUIDE TO THE ROBOT APOCALYPSE” QUARTZ 09/03/17” (cont.) • “Amazon offers a more modern example of this phenomena. • The company has over the last three years increased the number of robots working in its warehouses from 1,400 to 45,000. • Over the same period, the rate at which it hires workers hasn’t changed • In a report on artificial intelligence and the economy, the Obama White House suggested that automation might create jobs in supervising AI, repairing and maintaining new systems, and in reshaping infrastructure for developments like self-driving cars. • But, the report’s authors note, “Predicting future job growth is extremely difficult, as it depends on technologies that do not exist today.””
- 8. “THE OPTIMIST’S GUIDE TO THE ROBOT APOCALYPSE” QUARTZ 09/03/17” (cont.) • In 2013, researchers at Oxford sparked fear of the robot revolution when they estimated that 47% of US occupations were likely to be automated. • In 2016, McKinsey, after analyzing 830 occupations, it concluded that just 5% of them could be completely automated. • The two studies obviously counted differently. • The Oxford researchers assessed the probability that occupations would be fully automated within a decade or two. • But automation is more likely to replace part of a job than an entire job. • McKinsey’s researchers’ model didn’t attempt to sort jobs into “replaceable” and “not replaceable,” but rather to place them on a spectrum of automation potential.
- 9. “THE OPTIMIST’S GUIDE TO THE ROBOT APOCALYPSE” QUARTZ 09/03/17” (cont.) • “McKinsey’s conclusion was not that machines will take all of these jobs, but rather, “more occupations will change than will be automated away.” • Today, during what the World Economic Forum has dubbed the “fourth industrial revolution,” even optimists expect short-term labor displacement, wage depression, and, for some workers, pain. • To take just one sector, the Obama White House estimated that nearly 3.1 million people could lose their job to the autonomous car. New jobs in other sectors could be created as these jobs disappear, but the people who are losing driving jobs won’t necessarily have the skills to fill the new ones. This is a big deal. • What separates the optimists from the pessimists is that they tend to believe that the economy as a whole will recover from this short-term adjustment period. • Pessimists argue that not everyone will benefit from this industrial revolution in the same way that the standard of living for ordinary workers rose after the last industrial revolution. Over the last two decades, most gains in productivity have gone to the owners of businesses rather than people who work for them. Global inequality has for the last several decades soared. • As MIT’s Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee put it recently in their 2014 book about automation’s economic impact, The Second Machine Age: “Our generation has inherited more opportunities to transform the world than any other. That’s a cause for optimism, but only if we’re mindful of our choices.”” https://qz.com/904285/the-optimists-guide-to-the-robot-apocalypse/
- 10. MICHAEL CHUI: “FROM SCIENCE FICTION TO BUSINESS FACT” McKINSEY 08/07/16 VIDEO 6:24 • McKinsey’s Michael Chui explains how automation is transforming work. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=obnZu3F N_VA • This video is part of the article "Where machines could replace humans—and where they can’t (yet)" available on McKinsey.com: http://bit.ly/29sQD6M
- 11. “The Dark Secret at the Heart of AI” No one really knows how the most advanced algorithms do what they do. That could be a problem. MIT Technology Review 11/04/17 • “It might be part of the nature of intelligence that only part of it is exposed to rational explanation. Some of it is just instinctual.” •
- 12. “THE DARK SECRET AT THE HEART OF AI”(CONT.) • “Last year, a strange self-driving car was released onto the quiet roads of Monmouth County, New Jersey. The experimental vehicle, developed by researchers at the chip maker Nvidia, didn’t look different from other autonomous cars, but it was unlike anything demonstrated by Google, Tesla, or General Motors, and it showed the rising power of artificial intelligence. The car didn’t follow a single instruction provided by an engineer or programmer. Instead, it relied entirely on an algorithm that had taught itself to drive by watching a human do it. • Getting a car to drive this way was an impressive feat. But it’s also a bit unsettling, since it isn’t completely clear how the car makes its decisions. • The mysterious mind of this vehicle points to a looming issue with artificial intelligence. The car’s underlying AI technology, known as deep learning, has proved very powerful at solving problems in recent years”
- 13. “THE DARK SECRET AT THE HEART OF AI”(CONT.) • “But this won’t happen—or shouldn’t happen—unless we find ways of making techniques like deep learning more understandable to their creators and accountable to their users. Otherwise it will be hard to predict when failures might occur—and it’s inevitable they will. That’s one reason Nvidia’s car is still experimental. • There’s already an argument that being able to interrogate an AI system about how it reached its conclusions is a fundamental legal right. Starting in the summer of 2018, the European Union may require that companies be able to give users an explanation for decisions that automated systems reach. This might be impossible, even for systems that seem relatively simple on the surface, such as the apps and websites that use deep learning to serve ads or recommend songs. The computers that run those services have programmed themselves, and they have done it in ways we cannot understand. Even the engineers who build these apps cannot fully explain their behavior.”
- 14. “THE DARK SECRET AT THE HEART OF AI”(CONT.) • “The question is, what accommodations do we have to make to do this wisely—what standards do we demand of them, and of ourselves?” Daniel Dennett tells me in his cluttered office on Tufts university’s idyllic campus. • He also has a word of warning about the quest for explainability. “I think by all means if we’re going to use these things and rely on them, then let’s get as firm a grip on how and why they’re giving us the answers as possible,” he says. But since there may be no perfect answer, we should be as cautious of AI explanations as we are of each other’s—no matter how clever a machine seems. “If it can’t do better than us at explaining what it’s doing,” Daniel Dennett says, “then don’t trust it.” • Daniel Dennett is a renowned philosopher and cognitive scientist who studies consciousness and the mind at Tufts university . • https://www.technologyreview.com/s/604087/the-dark-secret-at-the-heart-of-ai/
- 15. VIDEO: “ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE + MACHINE LEARNING: STOP PRETENDING” 2:52 10/03/17 “It’s inevitable. While many of us are willing to accept that there are jobs that will be replaced by AI in our lifetime, we still believe in the lasting power of our own work. This is a mistake.” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBqFqcWVjCo
- 16. AUTOMATION CAN REPLACE AT LEAST SOME WORK IN ALMOST ALL JOB SECTORS • Data: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; McKinsey Global Institute analysis • https://www.theatlas.com/charts/r1HaNCTce • Updated January 2017
- 17. “HERE’S THE UNOFFICIAL SILICON VALLEY EXPLAINER ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE” FAST COMPANY 12/05/17 • Andreessen Horowitz partner Frank Chen is here to tell you that anyone can utilize the technology, not just members of the “priesthood.” • Last year, Frank Chen, a partner at the A-list venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz (a16z), published a primer on artificial intelligence. The 45-minute video took viewers through a history of the technology, from its “birthday” in the summer of 1956 through its years in the wilderness of technology and straight through current-day Silicon Valley, where it is dominating conversations at most of the largest tech companies • Chen’s primer video went “unexpectedly viral” becoming one of a16z‘s most viewed pieces of content ever. • https://www.fastcompany.com/40420456/heres- the-unofficial-silicon-valley-explainer-on-artificial- intelligence
- 18. VIDEO: “AI AND DEEP LEARNING” 46:53 FRANK CHEN • Abstract: “One person, in a literal garage, building a self-driving car.” That happened in 2015. Now to put that fact in context, compare this to 2004, when DARPA sponsored the very first driverless car Grand Challenge. Of the 20 entries they received then, the winning entry went 7.2 miles; in 2007, in the Urban Challenge, the winning entries went 60 miles under city-like constraints. • Things are clearly progressing rapidly when it comes to machine intelligence. But how did we get here, after not one but multiple “A.I. winters”? What’s the breakthrough? And why is Silicon Valley buzzing about artificial intelligence again? • From types of machine intelligence to a tour of algorithms, a16z Deal and Research team head Frank Chen walks us through the basics (and beyond) of AI and deep learning in this slide presentation. • URL: http://a16z.com/2016/06/10/ai-deep-learning-machines/
- 19. “AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES WON’T JUST CHANGE THE WAY YOU DRIVE— THEY’LL CHANGE THE WAY YOU TRAVEL” Cars designed to cater to most of your needs en route will have a big impact on the travel and hospitality industries Medium 04/05/17
- 20. https://medium.com/@laskyjoshua/autonomous-vehicles-wont-just- change-the-way-you-drive-they-ll-change-the-way-you-travel-61a6a0b13f6f “You should come up to New York for the day,” Amy said. “I’ll introduce you to your new account team.” John agreed that it was a good idea — it didn’t hurt to get some face time with the new boss now that Amy had taken charge of the operations department. “That sounds good,” he replied, “I’ll meet you for Starbucks around the corner from the office at seven tomorrow.” It was currently 9 p.m. as John looked out at the Charlotte, North Carolina, skyline, mostly unobstructed aside from a few late Amazon drone shipments. Disconnecting the call, John tapped a quick reservation for an Uber Suite. Within half an hour, he had packed his things, said goodbye to his family, and boarded the latest in regional transportation. John couldn’t call it luxurious, but it was more than enough to accommodate his needs: a bed, bathroom, snack pantry, and (of course) Wi-Fi, all in an interior that could be better described as a room than a car. Knowing he had a long day ahead, John went straight to sleep and woke up just before 5:30 the next morning. Looking out the window, he saw the sign for East Brunswick, New Jersey, as the Uber chimed in with his ETA: 45 minutes. Great, he thought, that’s time enough to exercise and freshen up before I arrive for coffee. Compared to the hassle travel used to be, maybe this was luxurious after all?”
- 21. “'DRUNK ROBOTS': HOW DRIVERLESS CARS COULD LEAVE HUMANS BEHIND WITHIN FIVE YEARS” SYDNEY MORNING HERALD 26/02/17
- 22. “'DRUNK ROBOTS': HOW DRIVERLESS CARS COULD LEAVE HUMANS BEHIND WITHIN FIVE YEARS” SYDNEY MORNING HERALD 26/02/17(cont.) • “In a submission to the inquiry, the mayors of Australia's capital cities say they expect autonomous cars to become commonplace between 2020 and 2025 and be safely moving in traffic with traditional cars. • The mayors say the shift to autonomous cars could require a "complete reimagining" of the long- term infrastructure needs of cities, reduce the need for inner-city car parks and encourage people to live further away from work. • Many submissions said they expected the growth of self-driving cars to dramatically reduce the number of people who die on the roads given most accidents are caused by human error. • Volvo Australia Managing Director Kevin McCann said in his submission that self-driving cars will "revolutionise society" and transform how people spend their time. • "Their arrival will be the biggest change to personal transport since the invention of the car nearly 130 years ago," he said. • Special kangaroo detection technology would be incorporated into driverless cars for the Australian market, Volvo said, given there are around 20,000 kangaroo strikes on Australian roads each year. • Monash University academics Robert Sparrow and Mark Howard said self-driving cars will eventually be able to communicate with each other so effectively that "human beings will be the moral equivalent of 'drunk robots' and it should therefore be illegal for human beings to be in control of a powered vehicle on a public road". • Professor Howard and Dr Sparrow predict private vehicle ownership will dramatically reduce in favour of subscription-based "transport services" in which members purchase a particular number of trips and are picked up and dropped off at their chosen destination. • The Victoria Transport Policy Institute predicted driverless cars will be legal and available for sale by 2020 but it could take until the 2050s for full automation to become a standard feature on most new vehicles.” http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/drunk-robots-how-driverless-cars-could-leave-humans-behind-within-five-years-20170222-guir7t
- 23. “AUTOMATION: WILL THE ROBOTS RUIN US? THANKS TO AUTOMATION A LIFE OF POTENTIAL LEISURE BECKONS – WHETHER WE LIKE IT OR NOT.” SYDNEY MORNING HERALD 27/04/17 • “Fritz Lang's futurist film Metropolis (1927) imagined an automated future. The real one won't be as pretty. • According to Futurist.com, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) data shows that, averaged across the world, 57 per cent of jobs are susceptible to automation. This rises to 69 per cent in India and 77 per cent in China. • The low-risk jobs tend to be those which emphasise social or creative skills. Which puts me in mind of the cuts to funding for the humanities subjects over the last few decades. Can you spell "irony"? • Commenting on the Citi report, one expert said: "Focus less on pure academics, and more on creativity and presentation skills. The enormous likelihood is that however good you are at STEM subjects there are likely to be people in the world who are infinitely better than you – this is to say nothing of the computers that will eventually take over all STEM related roles. Communication skills, creativity and the ability to adapt to change are hugely more valuable and a much better differentiator medium term." • In other words, an emphasis on levels of education and a shift in the educational areas of importance are going to be needed to prepare people for employment in a highly automated future.” • http://www.smh.com.au/technology/technology- news/automation-will-the-robots-ruin-us-20170424-gvrof6
- 24. “DO THESE 5 THINGS RIGHT NOW TO STILL BE EMPLOYABLE IN A DECADE” FAST COMPANY 05/04/17 • “Will you be highly employable in 2027? Here’s how to make the answer, “Yes.” 1. PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT’S GOING ON IN (AND OUTSIDE OF) YOUR INDUSTRY 2. SCHEDULE CHECKUPS TWICE A YEAR 3. FIND WAYS TO STRETCH YOUR SKILLS 4. DOCUMENT YOUR DEVELOPMENT 5. STEP OUT OF YOUR COMFORT ZONE • But it’s hard to know exactly what the workplace will look like in 10 years, says Barbara Mistick, president of Wilson College and coauthor of Stretch: How to Future-Proof Yourself for Tomorrow’s Workplace. So keeping yourself marketable and relevant for a long career is a constant process of evaluation, education, and adaptation, she says. “ • https://www.fastcompany.com/40415957/what-to-do-now-to-stay-marketable-in-a- decade?utm_source=mailchimp&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=fcdaily- bottom&position=6&partner=newsletter&campaign_date=05052017
- 25. ROBOT REVOLUTION “JACK MA TO WORLD: PREPARE FOR DECADES OF PAIN CHINA’S SECOND-RICHEST MAN WARNS THAT DRASTIC CHANGE IS COMING, WHETHER THE WORLD IS READY OR NOT.” VANITY FAIR 24/04/17 • “The executive chairman of e- commerce giant Alibaba, Jack Ma, added his voice to the dystopian chorus. “In the next 30 years, the world will see much more pain than happiness,” the Chinese tech billionaire said at a entrepreneurship conference in Zhengzhou, Bloomberg reports. “Social conflicts in the next three decades will have an impact on all sorts of industries and walks of life.”
- 26. JACK MA AND THE ROBOT REVOLUTION (cont.) • “Ma warned attendees that the education system must change to account for seismic advancements in technology—including artificial intelligence, robotics, and manufacturing automation—that will disrupt the labor market and create massive societal upheaval. • He also cautioned against giving robots too much autonomy. “Machines should only do what humans cannot,” Ma argued. “Only in this way can we have the opportunities to keep machines as working partners with humans rather than as replacements.” • He said he had tried to warn people about the disruptive potential of the Internet when he first got into the e-commerce business, more than a decade ago, but few retailers heeded his advice. “Fifteen years ago I gave speeches 200 or 300 times reminding everyone the Internet will impact all industries, but people didn’t listen because I was a nobody.” • “Throughout history, technological disruptions have followed similar trajectories: 20 years of technological disruption followed by 30 years of further rapid change as new technologies are applied throughout society,” he said at the time.” • http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2017/04/jack-ma-to-world-prepare-for-decades-of- pain?mbid=nl_TH_58fe754f41ac384448a39cbe&CNDID=20252380&spMailingID=10884558&spUserID=M TMzMTgyNDUwMDg3S0&spJobID=1141925770&spReportId=MTE0MTkyNTc3MAS2
- 27. “MAN VERSUS MACHINE: EVIDENCE THAT ROBOTS ARE WINNING THE RACE FOR JOBS” THE NEW YORK TIMES 28/03/17 • “ Who is winning the race for jobs between robots and humans? • Last year, two leading economists described a future in which humans come out ahead. But now they've declared a different winner: the robots. • The industry most affected by automation is manufacturing. For every robot per thousand workers in US factories, up to six workers lost their jobs and wages fell by as much as three-fourths of a per cent, according to a new paper by the economists, Daron Acemoglu of MIT and Pascual Restrepo of Boston University. It appears to be the first study to quantify large, direct, negative effects of robots. • The paper is all the more significant because the researchers, whose work is highly regarded in their field, had been more sanguine about the effect of technology on jobs. • The findings fuel the debate about whether technology will help people do their jobs more efficiently and create new ones, as it has in the past, or eventually displace humans. • David Autor, a collaborator of Acemoglu's at MIT, has argued that machines will complement instead of replace humans, and cannot replicate human traits like common sense and empathy. • "I don't think that this paper is the last word on its subject, but it's an exceedingly carefully constructed and thought-provoking first word," he said.” • http://www.smh.com.au/business/workplace-relations/man-versus-machine-evidence-that-robots-are-winning- the-race-for-jobs-20170328-gv8mub.html
- 28. “The 10 Most Innovative Companies In AI/Machine Learning 2017” Fast Company 17/03/17 Don’t fear smart computers—these companies are using AI to prevent disease, predict food shortages, and more. Click on a company name to learn more about why it made the list. 01. GOOGLE For developing a photographic memory 02. IBM For embedding Watson where it’s needed most 03. BAIDU For accelerating mobile search with artificial intelligence 04. SOUNDHOUND For giving digital services the power of human speech 05. ZEBRA MEDICAL VISION For using deep learning to predict and prevent disease 06. PRISMA For making masterpieces out of snapshots 07. IRIS AI For speeding up scientific research by surfacing relevant data 08. PINTEREST For serving up a universe of relevant pins to each and every user 09. TRADEMARKVISION For helping startups make their mark without any legal confusion 10. DESCARTES LABS For preventing food shortages by predicting crop yields https://www.fastcompany.com/3069025/the-10-most-innovative-companies-in-ai-machine-learning-2017
- 29. “SILICON VALLEY IS RIGHT — OUR JOBS ARE ALREADY DISAPPEARING” thinkgrowth.org 14/03/17 • “Stephen Hawking says that “we are at the most dangerous moment in the development of humanity” and that the “rise of artificial intelligence is likely to extend job destruction deep into the middle classes, with only the most caring, creative or supervisory roles remaining.” • Sam Hinkie, the smartest man in sports and a Stanford grad, asks, “How are you preparing your kids for a life with 60% unemployment?” • Sam Altman, the head of Y Combinator, is so convinced that we’re going to need to figure out new ways of providing people with a means to live that he’s giving ~$20k each to 1,000 people in Oakland for a year just to see what they do with their new jobless income.” • https://thinkgrowth.org/silicon-valley-is- right-our-jobs-are-already-disappearing- c1634350b3d8
- 30. THE RISE OF AI MAKES EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE MORE IMPORTANT HBR 15 /02/17 • “As AI improves, which is happening quickly, a much broader set of “thinking” rather than “doing” jobs will be affected. We’re talking about jobs, that, until the last few years, we couldn’t imagine being done without the participation of an actual, trained human being. Jobs like teacher, doctor, financial advisor, stockbroker, marketer, and business consultant. • There are just a lot of things that machines can do better than human beings, and we shouldn’t be too proud to admit it. Many skilled jobs follow the same general workflow: – Gather data – Analyze the data – Interpret the results – Determine a recommended course of action – Implement the course of action • It’s these human capabilities that will become more and more prized over the next decade. Skills like persuasion, social understanding, and empathy are going to become differentiators as artificial intelligence and machine learning take over our other tasks. Unfortunately, these human-oriented skills have generally been viewed as second priority in terms of training and education. ”
- 31. “THE RISE OF AI MAKES EMOTIONAL INTELLIGENCE MORE IMPORTANT” HBR 15/02/17 (cont.) • “For better or worse, these skills will become essential to anyone who wants to stay relevant in their field as automated systems proliferate. We have three recommendations: – Don’t fight the progress of technology. Machine learning and AI have the ability to improve outcomes and lower cost — so don’t fight the robots. Welcome the change in your industry and work to make it fruitful and complementary. – Examine your own capabilities interacting with, motivating, and assessing people. Recognize your strengths and weaknesses when it comes to emotional intelligence. – Invest in developing your emotional intelligence. The simplest way is to change your mental model about what is important in your role, and begin focusing on how you can better manage, influence, and relate to others. Or, take it a step further by seeking out training and stretch opportunities. • What you have to offer — what you can do better than any smart machine — is relate to the people around you. Begin to nurture and invest in these abilities the same way that you have the more technical parts of your career. If you can be an outstanding motivator, manager, or listener, then you will still have a part to play as technology changes your industry.” https://hbr.org/2017/02/the-rise-of-ai-makes-emotional-intelligence-more-important?referral=00202&cm_mmc=email-_-newsletter-_- weekly_hotlist-_- hotlist_date&utm_source=newsletter_weekly_hotlist&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=hotlist_date&spMailingID=16604621&spUse rID=Mzc4ODQ0OTkxS0&spJobID=961653915&spReportId=OTYxNjUzOTE1S0
- 32. “THE EMOTIONAL SOPHISTICATION TOMORROW’S LEADERS WILL NEED” INSEAD QUY HUY, INSEAD PROFESSOR OF STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT 06/04/17 “In an increasingly automated workplace, leaders should concentrate on uniquely human skillsets. The current cynicism about humanity’s value within organisations is the result of the no-emotions-allowed business culture that has been the global norm for generations. With so many companies treating people like instrumental (human) resources, is it any wonder we feel inferior to machines, which have no emotions to suppress? To win a race against robots, managers need to acquire emotional sophistication, quickly. To start with, they could acquaint themselves with some of the ground-breaking research compiled in a recent special Topic Forum Issue of the Academy of Management Review entitled “Integrating Emotions and Affect in Theories of Management” Automation bodes ill for many unskilled and purely skill-based professions. However, the tech wizards tasked with designing, fixing and refining the new mechanical working class will command impressive leverage. If they don’t love their workplace, the most talented ones will always be able to negotiate a higher salary somewhere else. It will fall to emotionally sophisticated managers to win their loyalty and inspire them to ever-greater feats of innovation. The non-techie winners in tomorrow’s high-performing organisations will be managers who can create for employees an emotional environment at least as rewarding as their paycheque.” • https://knowledge.insead.edu/leadership-organisations/the-emotional-sophistication-tomorrows-leaders-will- need-5741?utm_source=INSEAD+Knowledge&utm_campaign=7c83773856- EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_04_13&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_e079141ebb-7c83773856-249937701
- 33. THE WORLD’S MOST TALENT COMPETITIVE COUNTRIES, 2017 INSEAD 26/01/17
- 34. THE WORLD’S MOST TALENT COMPETITIVE COUNTRIES, 2017 INSEAD 26/01/17 https://knowledge.insead.edu/career/the-worlds-most-talent-competitive-countries-2017-5144 • “As we observe in this year’s Global Talent Competitiveness Index report, countries that lead the way in talent competitiveness have taken a multipronged approach to dealing with recent advances in technology and fostering the talent necessary to leverage it. • The index, which measures the extent to which countries attract, grow and retain talent and how they translate their efforts into output, puts Switzerland on top, followed by Singapore and the United Kingdom. While Switzerland excels at offering an ideal economic environment and retaining domestically-developed talent, Singapore leads the way in attracting and enabling its global talent pool. • Singapore is a particularly relevant case study in this year’s report because it takes an ecosystem approach to talent development in the face of technological change. Its regular “learning journeys”, organised by the Ministry of Manpower, along with relevant agencies such as the Workforce Development Agency and the Infocomm Development Agency, aim to enlighten small businesses to new possibilities in automation to enhance productivity and reduce dependence on foreign labour. One of its most recent journeys introduced smart technologies in the cleaning and services sector such as robotic floor cleaners and droids that can fold napkins to speed up the work of hotel staff. The learning journeys are only the beginning. They are accompanied by various government grants and incentive schemes, such as the Lean Enterprise Development Scheme, a cross-agency taskforce that makes resources and funding available to local small companies looking to augment their workers with technology. • Another box Singapore ticks in the GTCI is in education. Its recent PISA scores – which put Singaporean children three years ahead of their American peers in mathematics – reflect Singapore’s forward-looking education system. Singaporean children don’t start primary school until age 6, spending their early years in play-based kindergartens. At school, the curriculum encourages students to ask questions about things they see around them and to maintain that curiosity, which aids lifelong learning. The school system also offers coding classes at a very early age, adopts many digital delivery channels and gives teachers 100 hours a year for training. • The importance of ecosystems, which runs consistently throughout our report, cannot be underestimated. The standouts of the GTCI use public-private partnerships to surmount and exploit the challenges of building the new economy.
- 35. “WHERE MACHINES COULD REPLACE HUMANS—AND WHERE THEY CAN’T (YET)” McKinsey 16/07/16 • As automation technologies such as machine learning and robotics play an increasingly great role in everyday life, their potential effect on the workplace has, unsurprisingly, become a major focus of research and public concern. The discussion tends toward a Manichean guessing game: which jobs will or won’t be replaced by machines? • In fact, as our research has begun to show, the story is more nuanced. While automation will eliminate very few occupations entirely in the next decade, it will affect portions of almost all jobs to a greater or lesser degree, depending on the type of work they entail. Automation, now going beyond routine manufacturing activities, has the potential, as least with regard to its technical feasibility, to transform sectors such as healthcare and finance, which involve a substantial share of knowledge work. • These conclusions rest on our detailed analysis of 2,000-plus work activities for more than 800 occupations. Using data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and O*Net, we’ve quantified both the amount of time spent on these activities across the economy of the United States and the technical feasibility of automating each of them. • The hardest activities to automate with currently available technologies are those that involve managing and developing people (9 percent automation potential) or that apply expertise to decision making, planning, or creative work (18 percent). These activities, often characterized as knowledge work, can be as varied as coding software, creating menus, or writing promotional materials. For now, computers do an excellent job with very well-defined activities, such as optimizing trucking routes, but humans still need to determine the proper goals, interpret results, or provide commonsense checks for solutions. The importance of human interaction is evident in two sectors that, so far, have a relatively low technical potential for automation: healthcare and education.
- 36. “WHERE MACHINES COULD REPLACE HUMANS—AND WHERE THEY CAN’T (YET)” McKinsey 16/07/16 Excellent graphic on which type of activities and to what degree they are affected by automation http://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/digital-mckinsey/our-insights/where- machines-could-replace-humans-and-where-they-cant-yet • http://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Bu siness%20Functions/McKinsey%20Digital/Our%20 Insights/Where%20machines%20could%20replace %20humans%20and%20where%20they%20cant/S VGZ-Sector-Automation-ex3.ashx • Open the link to see the infographic
- 37. “RAY KURZWEIL ON HOW WE’LL END UP MERGING WITH OUR TECHNOLOGY” NYTIMES 14/03/17 • Ray Kurzweil, an inventor and futurist and the author of “The Singularity Is Near” and “How to Create a Mind” reviews two books: • THINKING MACHINES The Quest for Artificial Intelligence — and Where It’s Taking Us Next By Luke Dormehl 275 pp. TarcherPerigee. Paper, $16. • HEART OF THE MACHINE Our Future in a World of Artificial Emotional Intelligence By Richard Yonck 312 pp. Arcade Publishing. $25.99. • “Luke Dormehl is the rare lay person — a journalist and filmmaker — who actually understands the science (and even the math) and is able to parse it in an edifying and exciting way. He is also a gifted storyteller who interweaves the personal stories with the broad history of artificial intelligence. I found myself turning the pages of “Thinking Machines” to find out what happens, even though I was there for much of it, and often in the very room.” • https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/14/books/review/thin king-machines-luke-dormehl.html?ref=todayspaper