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Advances in Natural andTechnological Hazards Research
Geohazards
Sandeep
Parveen Kumar
Himanshu Mittal
Roshan Kumar Editors
Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting

Advances in Natural and Technological
Hazards Research
Volume 53

The book series entitled Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards is dedi-
cated to serving the growing community of scholars, practitioners and policy makers
concerned with the different scientific, socio-economic and political aspects of
natural and technological hazards.
The series aims to provide rapid, refereed publications of topical contributions
about recent advances in natural and technological hazards research. Each volume
is a thorough treatment of a specific topic of importance for proper management and
mitigation practices and will shed light on the fundamental and applied aspects of
natural and technological hazards.
Comments or suggestions for future volumes are welcomed.

Sandeep · Parveen Kumar · Himanshu Mittal ·
Roshan Kumar
Editors
Geohazards
Analysis, Modelling and Forecasting

Editors
Sandeep
Department of Geophysics
Banaras Hindu University
Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh, India
Himanshu Mittal
National Center for Seismology
New Delhi, India
Parveen Kumar
Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology
Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India
Roshan Kumar
Department of Electronics and Information
Technology
Miami College of Henan University
Kaifeng, China
ISSN 1878-9897 ISSN 2213-6959 (electronic)
Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research
ISBN 978-981-99-3954-1 ISBN 978-981-99-3955-8 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-3955-8
© The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature
Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023
This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether
the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse
of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and
transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar
or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed.
The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication
does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant
protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.
The publisher, the authors, and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book
are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or
the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any
errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional
claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
This Springer imprint is published by the registered company Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.
The registered company address is: 152 Beach Road, #21-01/04 Gateway East, Singapore 189721,
Singapore

Foreword
Turkey Earthquake of M7.8 on February 6, 2023 is the most recent example of
natural geohazards, it has claimed over 50000 of human lives and has inflicted vast
infrastructural damages. The extent of damages, economic losses and time frame
required to recapitulate pre-earthquake scenario are still illusive. Since the advent of
the theory of Plate Tectonics, concentration of strong earthquakes in the well-defined
seismic belts, their recurrence interval as well as monitoring of stress generation/
accumulation, improved imaging of crustal structures have greatly enhanced our
understanding of the process leading to catastrophic earthquakes. Although multiple
seismological, geophysical, geochemical, hydrological and animal behavior, etc are
collated and a few successes stories are reported as long, intermediate, and short-term
precursors but prediction of an earthquake with precise location, magnitude, and time
window still remains an unaccomplished challenge of earth sciences. Further, there
is famous saying that earthquakes do no kill people, it is the collapse of buildings
due to violent shaking caused by the traveling seismic waves account for the loss
of lives and damage to standing structures. Given these recognition, major science
and technical programs geared to co-up with growing geohazards of earthquake are
aimed at developing the earthquake resistance society with a motto “Earthquake safe
structures, the basis of the safe life”.
The present edited book entitled “Geohazards: Analysis, Modelling and Forecast-
ing” is an comprehensive attempt to share advances in several areas of geohazard
quantification and their implementation by policymakers, city planners and above
all by society. The most fascinating aspects are all the four co-editors; Dr. Sandeep,
Dr. Parveen Kumar, Dr. Himanshu Mittal, and Dr. Roshan Kumar, are young
emerging researchers with complimentary expertise and specializations, I congratu-
late them for choosing such a challenging theme of Seismic Geohazard for their
maiden compilation. The book comprising of 12 chapters, authored by actively
engaged researchers in wide spectrum of geohazards, cover three major components
of the geohazard studies. For example, the Observation and Analysis of earthquakes
occurrences, linkages with regional tectonics, stress-drop pattern, etc. Second set
of presentation deal with modelling of geophysical, geochemical (radon) data to
identify precursors or signal useful for early hazards warning. Importance of such
v

vi Foreword
studies stems from the fact most rapidly advancing tools including artificial intelli-
gence and machine learning are used to estimate potential seismic hazard. Finally,
the background information on the site-specific amplification, source mechanism and
stress-decay patterns are critical inputs to simulate end scenario hazards map, which
under varied tectonic can be used to landslide vulnerability assessment, liquefaction
in fault zone, tsunami risk assessment, and the use of early warning systems to avert
disastrous effects. The end scenario hazards parameters also provide critical inputs
to design for earthquake resistance infra-structure, an ultimate goal of geohazard
studies. I am sure the simplimistic mode of presentation, highlighting the key issues
of geohazard assessment, will be fruitful to both the subject specialists, policymakers
as well as bring awareness among the common public and students. I wish good luck
to co-editors and publishers for the success of the efforts and dedication.
Prof. Baldev Raj Arora, FNASc, FIASc.,
Former Director
Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology
Dehradun, India

Preface
The growing vulnerability and exposure to failures in risk reduction and policy-
making have increased the severity of geohazard impact many folds. This strongly
demands an extensive understanding of various geohazards and their impetus.
Furthermore, detailed geohazard analysis, modeling, and forecasting are needed to
reduce the impacts of extreme events. This unique book volume includes chapters
from renowned experts from different nations in response to the increased interest in
understanding the geohazards. The geoscientists and all other researchers interested
in methods for reducing geohazards are extremely interested in the subject. This
book involves the geohazards aspects of the different domains on a single podium,
making it significant and unique.
This book comprises a total of 12 chapters, which cover contemporary develop-
ments of modeling, and analysis techniques especially in the field of hazard and risk
associated with earthquakes, vulnerability assessment for landslides, the assessment
of tsunami risk in coastal regions, the implementation of early warning systems to
prevent catastrophic consequences. While the book provides a fundamental knowl-
edge of geohazards, the case studies illustrate recent developments in hazard reduc-
tion and disaster mitigation techniques. The purpose of compiling this book volume
was to draw attention to the distinctive characteristics of the geohazards. For compre-
hending the many forms of geohazards modeling and forecasting, the book is an
essential necessity for all researchers, scientists, students, and the industry. This
book focuses on the recent trends and information on different geohazard types,
ranging from earthquakes to landslides to Tsunamis. This book will significantly
contribute to the acquisition of policy-relevant knowledge for risk reduction, which
will provide direct benefits to the general public.
We are grateful to all the authors who produced such top-notch chapters for
this book. We owe gratitude to all technical reviewers for giving up their time and
expertise. Sincere appreciation is extended to the publishing team for their hard
vii

viii Preface
work and effectiveness, which are evident in the book’s final form. We think that by
describing and comprehending geohazard’s ideas from many angles, this book will
advance knowledge and understanding in the field.
Varanasi, India
Dehradun, India
New Delhi, India
Kaifeng, China
Sandeep
Parveen Kumar
Himanshu Mittal
Roshan Kumar

About This Book
This book presents a comprehensive analysis of diverse aspects of geohazards.
The growing vulnerability and exposure to failures in risk reduction and policy-
making increase the severity of geohazard impacts by many folds. Therefore, detailed
geohazard analysis, modeling and forecasting are needed to reduce the impacts of
extreme events.
An interdisciplinary approach to hazard mitigation provides an advanced tool for
risk reduction. The book thus summarizes recent modeling and analysis techniques
for hazard assessment and risk mitigation. Topics discussed in the book are hazard
and risk associated with earthquakes, vulnerability assessment for landslides and
avalanches, the assessment of tsunami risk in coastal regions, the implementation
of early warning systems to prevent catastrophic consequences, climate change risk
modeling and risk communication.
The convergent approach with the aspects of natural, engineering, and social
sciences attracts a vast audience working to advance disaster science. This book
also significantly facilitates the acquisition of policy-relevant knowledge for risk
reduction, which is beneficial to the general public.
ix

Contents
1 Signature of Active Tectonics and Its Implications Towards
Seismic Hazard in Western Part of Stable Peninsular India . . . . . . . 1
Kapil Mohan, Naveen Kumar, Rakesh Dumka, and Sumer Chopra
2 Stress Dissipation in the North-West Himalaya: What We
Learnt from Post-seismic Stress Changes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Somak Hajra and Devajit Hazarika
3 The Crust and Upper Mantle Structure Beneath
the Bangladesh and Its Effects on Seismic Hazard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Ritima Das, Utpal Saikia, and Gokul Kumar Saha
4 Seismological Data Quality Controls—A Synthesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
Cédric P. Legendre and Utpal Kumar
5 Use of Geophysical Techniques in Seismic Hazard Assessment
and Microzonation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Sumer Chopra, Pallabee Choudhury, Rakesh Nikam,
Peush Chaudhary, Harsh Limbachiya, and Vishwa Joshi
6 Earthquake Response and Its Implications Towards
the Structural Design Codes for Himalayan Range
and Adjoining Regions of India . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Babita Sharma and Manisha Sandhu
7 Liquefaction Potential Index (LPI): A Parameter to Assess
Liquefaction Hazard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103
Supratim Chanda, Neeraj Kumar, and D. Kushwaha
8 Radon Time Series Data for Earthquake Precursory Studies
in Taiwan: An Overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Vivek Walia, Arvind Kumar, and Ching-Chou Fu
xi

xii Contents
9 Spatial Prediction of Earthquake-Induced Landslide
Susceptible Zones—A Case Study from Indian Himalaya . . . . . . . . . 125
Sandeep Kumar, Parveen Kumar, Sameeksha Kaushik,
Yaspal Sundriyal, and Vikram Gupta
10 Tsunamis in the Past and Recent Years over Indian Coasts:
A Review . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
Babita Dani, Vaibhava Srivastava, A. P. Singh, and R. Bhatla
11 Instrumentation of India’s First Regional Earthquake Early
Warning System and Site Characterization of Its Stations . . . . . . . . . 155
Pankaj Kumar, Kamal, M. L. Sharma, R. S. Jakka, and Pratibha
12 Overview of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning
(ML) in Seismology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185
Harendra Kumar Dadhich

About the Editors
Sandeep is working as an assistant professor in the Department of Geophysics,
Banaras Hindu University (BHU) since 2016. He completed his Master’s degree in
Geophysics from Kurukshetra University and Ph.D. degree in Seismology from IIT
Roorkee. His research interests include simulating strong ground motions and the
statistical analysis and comparison of observed and simulated data. He is a lead or co-
author of 32 journal articles in international peer-reviewed journals. Sandeep has also
contributed to the scientific community as a reviewer of many research articles and
projects. He has completed a project funded by the Department of Science and Tech-
nology (DST)–Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB) and is currently
running a project sponsored by the Institute of Eminence (IoE) Cell, BHU. Recently,
he has been selected for the prestigious Indian Society of Earthquake Science’s Young
Scientists award-2021 and Indian Geophysical Union’s Dr. J.G. Negi Young Scien-
tist award-2022 for his significant contributions in the field of seismology. In 2022,
Sandeep also received a SERB International Research Experience (SIRE) fellowship
to work on the upgradation of the earthquake early warning system at the University
of Michigan, USA.
Parveen Kumar currently works as a scientist in the Wadia Institute of Himalayan
Geology, Dehradun, India. Earlier, he was awarded a position as a post-doctoral
fellow (funded by the University Grants Commission) to carry out his research
work. He collaborated internationally in research with the Leibniz Institute for
Applied Geophysics, Hanover, Germany. During his career, he has worked, and is
still working, on several sponsored and consultancy projects. His research interests
include strong motion seismology, earthquake hazard evaluation, geohazard assess-
ment such as landslide and avalanche hazards, and earthquake source studies. He
has carried out extensive fieldwork in the Himalayan belt to establish the seismicity
detection network and investigate subsurface structure by the multichannel analysis
of surface waves. He has published more than 30 research papers in SCI-indexed
journals and has supervised several Ph.D. and Master’s degree students. He holds a
Ph.D. from the Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, India, and a Master’s from
Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra, India.
xiii

xiv About the Editors
Himanshu Mittal currently works as a scientist-E at the National Centre for Seis-
mology, under the Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, India. Earlier, he worked as
a research associate and scientist-C at the Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee,
India. He also worked as a research scientist (post-doc) for more than 5 years at
National Taiwan University (NTU) and National Cheng Kung University (NCKU),
Taiwan. He was responsible for various studies related to earthquake early warning
(EEW) as well as strong-motion studies. Additionally, he served at Amity Univer-
sity, Jaipur, India, for 6 months as an associate professor. His major expertise is in
strong-motion simulation, earthquake hazard assessment, site characterization, and
EEW, among other areas. Recently, he has developed EEW systems for different
regions worldwide. He was an active researcher in reporting the functioning of EEW
in Taiwan during the Meinong earthquake of February 2016 and the Hualien earth-
quake of February 2018. He tested the functionality of an EEW system in India using
the recorded earthquake data from Taiwan and completed extensive fieldwork in the
Himalayan belt to establish a seismicity detection network in the Himalayas. He has
published more than 40 research papers in SCI-indexed international journals and is
actively engaged in collaboration with various national and international institutes.
Roshan Kumar currently works as an assistant professor at the Department
of Electronic and Information Technology, Miami College of Henan University,
China. Earlier, he completed his post-doc position at Zhejiang University, China.
His research interests include earthquake early warning systems, seismic signal
processing, and landslide warning systems. He holds a Ph.D. from the Indian Insti-
tute of Technology, Roorkee, India, and a Master’s from Thapar University, India.
To date, he has published more than 30 papers and also filed two Indian patents in
his short academic career.

Chapter 1
Signature of Active Tectonics and Its
Implications Towards Seismic Hazard
in Western Part of Stable Peninsular
India
Kapil Mohan, Naveen Kumar, Rakesh Dumka, and Sumer Chopra
Abstract The Dadra-Nagar Haveli and the surrounding region, in western India,
have been facing moderate seismicity since 1856. Two historic events (Magnitude
Ms 5 in 1935 and Magnitude Ms 5.7 in 1856) were reported in the past in this
region. Additionally, more than 200 earthquakes (1.0 ≤ M ≤ 5.7) were also reported
between M 1 and 5.7 in this area. The epicentre of these earthquakes follows the trend
of the faults mapped in the study area. Current study is aimed to map the tectonic
features in the region and their associated tectonic-geomorphic features to infer the
tectonic behaviour and their impact on seismic hazard in the western part of India.
The RIAT of the watersheds of main rivers has been estimated through the analysis
of geomorphic indices like stream length (SL) gradient, hypsometric integral (HI),
basin shape (BS) and valley floor (VF) and three classes (class II high (1.3 ≤ RIAT <
1.5), class III—moderate (1.5 ≤ RIAT < 1.8), and class IV—low (1.8 ≤ RIAT)) have
been found in the study area indicating it a seismically active region. The study area
falls within the Panvel seismic zone and the recent seismicity has also been witnessed
in the vicinity of N-S trending linear geological features. The presence of seismicity,
faults with slickenside planes, shear zones with brittle nature, deformed dykes and
extensional features suggests that the region has faced neotectonic activities and
is even now active seismically. Through geological fieldwork, the evidence of past
major seismic events (>5.5) is also found well preserved in the form of SSDS/
seismites in quaternary sediments. The identified SSDS/seismites are mostly formed
within the sandy silt, sandy gravel and clay beds; and include sills, dykes, suspended
clast blocks, slump structures, and convolute bedding. The extent and dimension of
these seismites indicate that the mechanism to trigger these and forces driven for
K. Mohan
National Center for Seismology, Ministry of Earth Sciences, New Delhi, India
N. Kumar (B) · R. Dumka · S. Chopra
Institute of Seismological Research, Knowledge Corridor, Gandhinagar, Gujarat, India
e-mail: naveen5attri@gmail.com
N. Kumar
EDRC Hydel & Tunnels Larsen and Toubro Limited, Faridabad, India
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023
Sandeep et al. (eds.), Geohazards, Advances in Natural and Technological
Hazards Research 53, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-3955-8_1
1

2 K. Mohan et al.
the source of these features are shock waves of earthquake. The maximum moment
magnitude of Mw 6.2 has been estimated based on the maximum displacement
recorded along the normal active fault mapped in the study area, which trends N170°–
N350°, with a sharp dip of 72° in the SW direction. The seismic hazard assessment
of the area considering scenario earthquake of Mw 6.2 along this fault located east of
SilvasacityhasbeenestimatedusingtheStochasticFiniteFaultModellingsimulation
technique. A maximum peak ground acceleration (PGA) of the order of ~0.44 g has
been assessed in the area with a maximum site amplification of 2.15.
Keywords Panvel seismic zone · Relative index of active tectonics · Soft sediment
deformation · Seismic hazard assessment
1.1 Introduction
Neotectonics and active tectonics are the key geological agents, which are respon-
sible for the modelling of present-day geomorphology on the earth. The tectonic
processes are responsible for the many geological hazards to society. Among all the
geological hazards, earthquakes have the most disturbing effect on society. In the
field of earth science, the tectonic geomorphology is a rising domain due to its addi-
tion of distinctive tools like geodetics, geomorphology, geochronology. Additionally,
these tools help in assessment of the deformation rate, incision upliftment, erosion
and fault slip rates (Kumar et al. 2020b).
For a long time, the peninsular shield of India has been considered stable seis-
mically and the region has the potential of generating only low-level seismicity at
few places (De Montessus de Ballore 1911; Tandon and Chatterjee 1968; Krishnan
1968). However, this belief has been shattered after the occurrence of the 1967, Koyna
Earthquake of M 6.2. The M 6.2 magnitude Koyna earthquake forced researchers to
reconsider and reassess the seismic status of Peninsular India. The detailed studies
conducted by (Chandra 1977; Auden 1949; Watts and Cox 1989; Bansal and Gupta
1998; Dole et al. 2000; Rajendran 1997; Sheth, 1998; Raj et al. 2003; Mohan et al.
2007; Kaplay et al. 2013, 2016; Naik and Awasthi 2003; Kale et al. 2016; Jade et al.
2017, Kumar et al. 2022, 2020a, b) show that, PFS zone, the Konkan coastal belt,
Koyna are affected by tectonically generated deformation activities in the Deccan
Volcanic region.
The profound accessibility of Geographic Information System and their role in
the uninterpretation of digital elevation models has helped to the purposes of RIAT
evaluation by means of geomorphic indices. The research on this subject are growing
and have seen significant growth in last decades (Kumar et al. 2022). The GIS-based
software enables to extract and analyse of landscapes with detailed information. The
Assessment of RIAT from indices of geomorphic shows the rates of upliftment and
deformation in the landscapes for the long time (Bull 1977; Kumar et al. 2022).
The current area under study is situated in western portion of DVP in the Western
India (Fig. 1.1). Since late Triassic/early Jurassic to late Cretaceous periods, West

1 Signature of Active Tectonics and Its Implications Towards Seismic … 3
Fig. 1.1 The Tectonic map
of Western India (after
Biswas 1982; Sheth 1998),
KMF-Kachchh Mainland
Fault, KHF-Katrol Hill
Fault, ECF-East Cambay
Fault, WCF-West Cambay
Fault, NKF-North Kathiawar
Fault, SNF-Son-Narmada
Fault, NTF-North Tapti Fault
Coast of India has evident persistent rifting events. The current study area is situated
in the Panvel flexure seismic zone (Fig. 1.1), which is undergoing through earthquake
events later 1618 (Rao 2005; Rao and Rao 1984; Kumar et al. 2020a) (https://isr.guj
arat.gov.in/). Key purpose of this research is to evaluate the seismic hazard in area
as there are no considerable studies associated to active tectonic and seismic hazard
due active fault (s) in the area under study.
1.2 Geological Setting and Study Area
The area under study is situated in western parts of India (Fig. 1.1). In the west, it’s
confined by WCF (west coast fault), whereas in east is bounded by Western Ghats
escarpment and the central portion is occupied by the Panvel flexure (Fig. 1.1).
The Deccan basalt, trachyte and rhyolite complex dominates the study area with
basic rock dykes. The central parts of the study area are occupied by alluvium these
sediments are distributed in intermittent spots of major rivers (Kumar et al. 2022
and 2020a, b). During Pliocene, the Western Coast of is formed due to the faulting
(Krishnan 1953). The WCF is the main tectonic structure in this part of India. Due
to its NNW-SSE trend, the straight orientation in the west coast and up to the Gulf
of Cambay in the north and continue to the south of Mumbai is considered to be due
to this fault (Bombay) (Krishnan 1982).

4 K. Mohan et al.
Fig. 1.2 a The Seismotectonic map of western India b The Seismotectonic map of the study area
(After Kumar et al. 2020b)
1.3 Seismotectonics of the Study Area
The area is experiencing earthquakes since 1856. Two historical events (MS5 in
1935 and MS5.7 in 1856) were recorded in the study area especially concentrated
in the southern part (Kumar et al. 2020b; Bansal and Gupta 1998; Chandra 1977).
At present, the seismicity in the region endorses the active nature of the present
tectonic features; epicentres of the earthquakes are focussed beside these tectonic
units (Kumar et al. 2020a). A substantial number of earthquakes between M1 to 5.7
(Chandra 1977; Bansal and Gupta 1998 and Kumar et al. 2020b) are documented
in the area under study. The disruption due to the tectonism is even now marked by
several earthquakes in western India (Fig. 1.2).
1.4 Methodology
The targeted research work is distributed into three parts (i) evaluation of RIAT, (ii)
soft-sediment deformation study and (iii) estimation of seismic hazard due to an
active segment of the fault.
1.4.1 Evaluation of RIAT
For evaluation of the RIAT, the remote sensing (RS) and geographic information
system (GIS) techniques are used. The network of streams and the demarcation of
watershed boundaries are done utilizing Survey of India toposheet at 1:50,000 and
SRT Digital Elevation Models (30 m) in the GIS system. The recognition of linear
feature like faults, lineaments and dykes, processing of image, production of the
FCC, and preparation of shaded relief maps are prepared. The indices, i.e., Bs, HI,

SL, Vf, are assessed and after calculation of all, sub-watersheds are classified in three
category on the basis of the value of index. Finally, these values are added and each
every sub-watershed has been grouped according to the value of the RIAT (Relative
Index of Active Tectonics).
1.4.2 Soft Sediments Deformation (SSD) Structures
The study related to seismite (SSDS) is completed in the steps as follows:—seis-
mites are identified, mapped in alluvial sediments pile up along Damanganga river
banks in the study area. These seismites were measured and their association with
the surrounding layers of sediments was done. Then the literature related to the seis-
mites has been reviewed and the reasons (whether primary or secondary) behind the
formation of these seismites are studied. In addition, the mechanism of trigger, the
earthquake distribution and the manifestation of active faults in the region have been
investigated.
1.4.3 Seismic Hazard Assessment Due to Active Fault
Segment
To determine the seismic hazard of any area, the future earthquake potential valuation
is mandatory. Precisely, it is essential toestimatethesizeof theearthquakes that might
be produced by any specific fault. The magnitude of earthquake may be related to
rupture parameters like length and displacement (Iida 1959; Tocher 1958; Chinnery
1969). To estimate these parameters, prior paleo-seismic and geologic studies of
active faults are required. The parameters/data from the geological and geomorphic
studies can be used to evaluate the time of historical earthquakes, the extent of
displacement of each event, and the segmentation of the fault zone (Schwartz and
Coppersmith 1986; Schwartz 1988; Coppersmith 1991) in the study area. To interpret
these source features into estimates of earthquake size, the empirical relationship
between rupture parameters and the measure of earthquake size, typically magnitude,
is required (Wells and Coppersmith 1994).
Numerous published realistic relationships are available to relate magnitude to
various fault rupture parameters, like fault rupture displacement versus rupture
length and magnitude versus rupture area (subsurface and surface both), magni-
tude contrasted with total fault length (Tocher 1958; Iida 1959; Albee and Smith
1966; Chinnery 1969; Ohnaka 1978; Slemmons 1977, 1982; Acharya 1979; Bonilla
and Buchanon 1970). There are research works also available that relate the seismic
moment and magnitude to the rupture length, width, and an area of the rupture (as
assessed from the amount of deformations at surface, the aftershock zone extent,
or functions of earthquake source time) (Utsu 1970; Kanamori and Anderson 1975;

6 K. Mohan et al.
Wyss 1979; Singh et al. 1980; Purcaru and Berckhemer 1982; Darragh and Bolt
1987). The empirical relationships proposed by Wells and Coppersmith (1994) were
well-tested and used in a number of significant studies in the seismic Hazard Assess-
ment (Mohan et al. 2017, 2018, 2021). Therefore, the same relationship has been used
in the present study to estimate the earthquake magnitude from the observed displace-
ment, estimation of rupture area, rupture length and rupture width. The details are
as follows.
1.4.3.1 Maximum Earthquake Magnitude
The length of surface rupture and the maximum displacement on continental fault
traces are the most commonly used parameters to conclude magnitudes for paleo-
earthquakes (Wells and Coppersmith 1994). Here, we have used the maximum
displacement method (Wells and Coppersmith 1994) to calculate the maximum
magnitude of an earthquake along the identified faults present in the study area.
Maximum Displacement Method
The maximum displacement method involves determining the maximum displace-
ment (MD) estimated from the paleoseismological investigations associated with a
paleoearthquake, and comparing that value to the maximum displacement measured
or computed for an instrumentally recorded earthquake (Wells and Coppersmith
1994).
The empirical relationship between Moment magnitude (M) and MD will have
the form of:
M = a + b ∗ log (MD)
Regressions coefficient derived by Wells and Coppersmith (1994) for Moment
magnitudes (M) and maximum displacement (MD) are:
a = 6.69 and b = 0.74
Along the normal active faults mapped in the study area, the maximum surface
displacement of ~0.25 m is measured. Thus in the above equation with MD = 0.25,
the possible Moment magnitude of Mw 6.2 is estimated.
1.4.3.2 Estimation of Seismic Hazard
The seismic hazard can be estimated using two different methodologies (i) Determin-
istic Seismic Hazard Assessment and (ii) Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment.

In the case of seismic designing and retrofitting of structures, the DSHA has an advan-
tage (McGuire 2001). The DSHA is also useful to check the worst-case scenarios (the
largest magnitude at the closest distance) and in the training and plans for emergency
response and post-earthquake recovery (McGuire 2001).
In the present study, the deterministic seismic hazard assessment has been
conducted to estimate the seismic hazard due to the active segment of the Kilvani
Fault (Fig. 1.3), where a displacement of 0.25 m was observed. The Strong motion
simulation involves the rigorous mathematical exercise covering the earthquake
source/rupture (geometry, nucleation, and propagation) and seismic wave propa-
gation (between the source to the site) through different rock boundaries in the
earth’s crust. While passing through different subsurface layers, the seismic waves
change (amplifies/deamplifies) and reach the site. Cancani (1904) initiated the simu-
lation of strong motion (SM) by generating the SM parameters from the seismic
intensity. Later on, Housner (1947) proposed the concept of black-box simulation
for simulating SM by using white Gaussian noise. Presently, mainly five types of
SM simulation techniques are available. These are (1) composite source modelling
(Saikia and Herrmann 1985; Saikia 1993; Zeng et al. 1994; Yu 1994; Yu et al.
1995), (2) stochastic simulation (Boore 1983; Lai 1982; Boore and Atkinson 1987),
(3) empirical Green function technique (EGF) (Hartzell 1978, 1982; Hadley and
Helmberger 1980; Kanamori 1979; Mikumo et al. 1981; Irikura and Muramatu 1982;
Irikura 1983, 1986; Muguia and Brune 1984; Hutchings 1985; Kamae and Irikura
1998; Irikura and Miyake 2011), (4) semi-empirical approach (Midorikawa 1993;
Joshi and Midorikawa 2004; Joshi et al. 2001; Mohan 2014), and (5) Stochastic Finite
Fault Source Modeling Technique (SFFMT) (Motazedian and Atkinson 2005). Every
simulation technique follows certain conditions for the assumptions of source, path,
and site effects and rarely estimates all three in one step. Due to advancements in the
research methodologies, the SM simulation can be effectively done by dividing it
into three major parts (i) source characterization and rupture propagation, (ii) wave
propagation from source to base rock/Engineering bedrock (EBR), and (iii) wave
propagation from EBR to surface considering near-surface effects gathered in the
form of site amplification from geotechnical or/and geophysical parameters like Vs.
Generally, one can choose any technique based on available input parameters (source,
path and site conditions). The SFFMT is a well-tested SM technique of simulation
and well tested in Gujarat by Chopra et al. (2010, 2013), Mohan et al. (2017, 2018,
2021) for seismic hazard assessment. In view of this, the technique has been selected
to estimate the strong motion at a grid interval of 10 km × 10 km. A significant
portion of the study area is covered with sediments. The United State Geological
Survey (USGS) provided the worldwide Vs30 values based on the topographic slope
(Allen and Wald 2009). The Vs30 values in the study region vary from 250 m/sec
to 900 m/sec. Therefore, the strong motion has been simulated at B/C Boundary at
Vs30 of 760 m/sec and crustal amplifications suggested by Boore and Joyner (1997)
for the Vs30 of 760 m/sec. The near-surface wave attenuation/Fall-off of the high
frequency (>1 Hz) Fourier amplitude spectrum (Anderson and Hough 1984)/Kappa
values (κ) is taken as 0.03 as used by Chopra et al. (2010) for the estimation of
seismic hazard in the adjacent Mainland Gujarat. The Quality factor and stress drop

8 K. Mohan et al.
Fig. 1.3 The PGA (in cm/sec2) distribution map at a Vs of 760 m/sec due to an earthquake of
Mw6.2 along the Kilvani Fault
were also considered as suggested by Chopra et al. (2010) for the adjacent Mainland
Gujarat area. The input parameters considered for the simulation of ground motion
are given in Table 1.1.
Site amplification plays a significant role in the estimation of seismic hazards in
any area. In the study area, the Vs30 values proposed by USGS have been used to
estimate the site amplification factors at a grid interval of 10 km × 10 km by using the
velocity–amplification relationship proposed by Matsuoka and Midorikawa (1994).
The PGA distribution map thus prepared at Vs30 of 760 m/sec, the site amplification
map (between the Vs of 760 m/sec and the surface Vs) and the PGA distribution map
at the surface level have been shown in Figs. 1.3, 1.4, and 1.5, respectively.

Table 1.1 The selected
model parameters for the
simulation of ground motion
Magnitude (Mw) 6.2
Fault length and
width (km)
(17 km and 11 km) Wells and
Coppersmith
(1994)
Strike and dip 170° and 72°
Slip distribution Random
Shear wave velocity 3.6 km/sec Chopra et al.
(2010)
Stress drop 100 bars Chopra et al.
(2010)
Kappa 0.03 Chopra et al.
(2010)
Anelastic
attenuation Q(f)
118f0.65 Chopra et al.
(2010)
Geometric
spreading
1/R (R≤40 km) Bodin et al.
(2004)
1/R0.5 (40≤R≤80 km)
1/R0.55 (R≥80 km)
Duration properties fc-1 (R < 10 km) Atkinson and
Boore (1995)
fc-1 + 0.16R
(10≤R≤70km)
fc-1 - 0.03 (70<R≤130
km)
fc-1 + 0.04R
(130<R<1000 km)
1.5 Result and Discussions
1.5.1 Faults and Lineament Mapping
During the field geological mapping, a normal fault has been mapped near Kilvani
villagetrendingN170°–N350°,withasharpdipof72°intheSWdirection(Fig.1.6a).
It is evident by the impressive growth of slickensides, the slickensides were occupied
by fine-grained white zeolites and calcite. The slickensides zone is very well visible
in a depth of 2–4 m in road cuttings (Fig. 1.6a). The slickenlines are suddenly
tending towards the south-SW on the surface of fault. The smoothness in touch in
the downward direction on slickeside surface and upward direction roughness is
observed (Fig. 1.6b), which suggests that the missing western block moved down
relative to the block east of the fault (Doblas 1998; Argles 2010). The exposed
bedrock along the rock cutting is mainly Basalt, which is found sheared and very
closely spaced fractures are formed due to the faulting. The presence of normal fault
with a trend N170°–N350° dipping 72° SW suggests the NE-SW extension in the

10 K. Mohan et al.
Fig. 1.4 The site amplification map of the study area
study area. The slickensides on striated fault planes were recorded in the expose rock
section at Kilvani and Meghwal, (Fig. 1.6). Generally, they present on fresh outcrops
showing, thin (~1–5 mm), mineralized (secondary zeolite and quartz, and calcite.)
the planes of fault that display primarily a normal slip. Mineralized layers are likely to
erode (Doblas 1998; Whiteside 1986; Kranis 2007). The Kilvani fault is the younger
fault in the study area as along this fault the displacement in the sediments has been
mapped. Though other faults (like the WCF and PF) are also present in the region but
along these faults, the signature of displacement or movement has not been found
in the study area. The Kilvani Fault also follows the trend of the major faults and
the epicentres are occurring along the trend of these faults. Therefore, to estimate
the hazard related to seismic event in the area and to estimate the maximum seismic
potential, the Kilvani Fault has been considered.
The lineament map has also been generated in the study area, and the results of
the analysis depict that these lineaments display maximum resemblance with the
trend of the tectonic features present in the area. The lineament density analysis was
performed in GIS platform by dividing the study area into four sectors, the results
of the lineament density analysis show that the highest density of the lineaments is

Fig. 1.5 The PGA (in cm/sec2) distribution map of the surface level due to earthquake of Mw6.2
along the Kilvani Fault
Fig. 1.6 a Normal fault near Kilvani village (20°18,1.70"N, 73° 5,53.55"E) road exposures with
strike N170°–N350° and dip amount 70° in SW direction, b Slickensided fault plane showing the
direction of movement by black arrows (After Kumar et al. 2020b)

12 K. Mohan et al.
Fig. 1.7 Structural lineament map of the area: a lineament density map in which the flat area shows
low concentration as compared to flanks, b rose diagram of lineaments with a major trend in N-S
direction (inset) (After Kumar et al. 2020b)
in the central portion of the study area along the axis of the Kilvani Fault and other
tectonic features (Fig. 7b), while the lowest lineament density in alluvial portion. The
high lineament density (Fig. 7b) observed in the central portion (in a black circle)
was linked with the regional tectonic features present in the study area. Furthermore,
the interpretation of the rose diagram and overlay investigation shows that maximum
lineaments/linear geological structures are aligned to sub-parallel (N–S direction) to
the Kilvani Fault and other tectonic structures (Fig. 7b inset).
1.5.2 Relative Index of Tectonic Activities
The indices like stream length index, valley to floor ratio, hypsometric integral, and
basin shape index are calculated, and their collective results were combined to assess
the relative index of tectonic activity (RIAT) in the study area. The stream length is an
important tool to estimate the relative tectonic activities of any area. The aberration
in the profile of river from the steady state may be due to the effect of the lithological,
or climatic and tectonic reasons (Hack 1973). The SL index value has been estimated
and the area is distributed into 54 sub-basins. Based on the results and the values

classified into three classes; Class I (SL, ≥ 600), Class II (300, < SL < 600), and
Class III (SL, ≤ 300). The 07 numbers of sub-basins come in class-I, a sum of 10
sub-basins comes in class-II and 10 sub-basins comes in Class-III. The results of
the study disclose the presence of moderate and high activities in the eastern and
northern portions, individually. The central and western portion is moderately least
tectonically active along with fairly high stream length index value. The valley to
floor ratio index is measured to differentiate among V and U shaped valleys. These
are (V-shaped) developed in response to upliftment and flat-floored (U-shaped) wide
valleys formed as a reaction to the stability of base level (Bull 1977). The incision by
river results into uplift,emt, while low Vf is associated to progressive incision rate and
uplift. The < 1 Vf value is related to the V-shaped valleys, linear streams shape with
and revealed active upliftment and non-stop downgrade cutting. The > 1 Vf value is
associated to flattened or valleys with U shaped, which displays attainment of erosion
of base level mainly in response to relative tectonic inactivity (Keller 1986; Keller
and Pinter 2022). In the region, the valley to floor width index is calculated in the
main streams of sub-basins. Three numbers of classes were classified in this case also;
Class I, (Vf ≤ 0.5), Class II, (0.5 < Vf < 1.0), and Class III, (Vf ≥ 1.0). The findings
of the study reveal that the majority of the area comes in Class 1, which shows the
V-shape and therefore discloses a remarkably higher degree of tectonic activity. The
hypsometric integral index is unbiased of area of the basin and is usually consequent
for a precise drainage basin. Usually, the HI outlines the elevational dispersal of
an exact area of land, mainly a drainage basin (Strahler 1952). The high value of
hypsometric index is possibly related to the current tectonic activity, whereas, the
low values signify the mature landscapes, which have been further eroded and less
affected by the recent tectonic activities (Strahler 1952). After the results of the
analysis, in relations of concavity and convexity of hypsometric curve, the HI may
be categorized into three classes, Class 1, (HI ≥ 0.5) shape of concave curve; Class
2, (0.4 < HI < 0.5) a shape of concave-convex curve, Class 3, (HI ≤ 0.4) the convex
shape of curve. The quantity of the breadth of sub-basins varies as of one place to
another hence the average value is taken to assess the shape of studied river basin. As
per Elias et al., 2019, the index of basin shape (Bs) comprises three classes: (Class I)
basin with Elongated shape (Bs ≥ 4); (Class II) basin with semi-elongated shape (3
≤ Bs < 4), and (Class III) basin with Circular shape (Bs < 3) (Fig. 1.8). The results of
the study reflect that high values of Bs are associated with the basins with elongated
shapes, generally connected to relatively enhanced tectonic activities, and low values
of Bs entitled to basins with a circular shape generally associated with low tectonic
activities.
The eruption of Deccan flood basalt took place at ~65 Ma and covered
> 500, 000 km2
(Chandra 1977; Cox 1988; Acharya et al. 1998; Ramesh and
Estabrook 1998). The earlier research in the Deccan province ascribed the viewed
variations basically to change in climate, geomorphology, riverine systems, fluc-
tuations in sea levels, and only devoted to the Deccan upland region connection
with movements related to neotectonism (Dikshit 1970; Kale and Rajaguru 1987;
Watts and Cox 1989; Widdowson and Cox 1996; Renne et al. 2015; Kale et al.
2016). In the present research, an effort is made to evaluate RIAT. The values of the

14 K. Mohan et al.
Fig. 1.8 Basin shape index distribution in the sub-watersheds in the study are (after Kumar et al.
2022)
indices computed are added to compute Relative index of Tectonic Activities and
then appraised the spatial extent and dispersal of tectonic activities in the study area.
The value of RIAT attained by addition of all the indices is grouped in three cate-
gories to describe the grade of RIAT in the region, which are given as: 1.3 ≤ RIAT, <
1.5 in Class II with high activities; 1.57–1.86, class III with moderate activities; and
2.0–2.33 Class IV, with low comparative tectonic activities separately. The distribu-
tion of these categories is shown in (Fig. 1.9). The river basins 44,42, 21, 2 fit in to
class II (with high activities); the basins 52,43,8,4,3,1 fit into class III (with moderate
activities); left all sub-basins fit into class IV (with low activities). The relative index
of tectonic activities is high alongside the UGF (Upper Godavari fault), the WGE
(Western Ghats escarpment), new lineaments and faults, present in the study area.
In the study area, various types of seismites also mapped from various location in
the river sediments during the field investigation. The seismites are primarily found
in sandy silt, silty clay and sandy gravels. Major seismites in the area include dykes
of intrusive nature and sills of sediments, sediments with slumping structures, clast
chunks with suspended nature and bedding with convolute shape.

Fig. 1.9 Distribution of relative index of active tectonics (RIAT) in the Darda and Nagar Haveli
and surroundings (after Kumar et al. 2022)
1.5.3 Deformation Mechanism
In previous studies in the central regions of Maharashtra the occurrence of SSDS,
warping/flexures of sediments, remarkable displacement and deformation in alluvial
deposits were documented (Dole et al. 2000, 2002; Rajendran 1997; Kaplay et al.
2013, 2016; Kale et al. 2016). There are various deformation mechanisms, which
describe the formation of the seismites. Mills (1983), suggested that the seismites
are produced by the disruption of non-lithified and sedimentary layers with water
saturation. Researchers like Mills (1983), Lowe (1975), Owen (1987, 2003), Moretti
and Sabato (2007) have recommended various deformation mechanisms behind the
formation of seismites. The seismites may be formed by the failure in slope due
to slumping, liquidization and shear stresses. It might happen if driving force results
in reverse density (Allen 1982). The liquefaction or fluidization of the sediments is the
most important reason in development of seismites in cohesion-less and water-rich
sediment layers (Allen 1982). Normally, the process of the cause and the distortion
can be instigated because of the results of exterior instruments like groundwater
fluctuations, gravitational and storm currents, and an event of earthquake (Sims
1975; Lowe 1975; Owen 1987, 1996).

16 K. Mohan et al.
1.5.3.1 Trigger Mechanism
There are several probable trigger mechanisms described by various researchers
most of them are summarized in this section. The commonly accepted trigger mech-
anisms are (a) loading of sediment (Moretti and Sabato 2007; Anketell et al. 1970),
(b) storm and turbiditic currents (Molina et al. 1998; Dalrymple 1979; Alfaro et al.
2002), (c) sudden collapse in sediments (Waltham and Fookes 2003; Moretti et al.
2001; Moretti and Ronchi 2011), (d) liquefaction of soil through previous fissures
(Holzer and Clark 1993; Guhman and Pederson 1992), (v) an earthquake event (Lowe
1975; Seilacher 1969; Sims 1975; Rossetti 1999; Calvo et al. 1998; Alfaro et al.
1999). In the study area, the sediment loading appears to be of least significance for
features observed in the alluvial deposits within the study area. Seismites mapped
in the study area are present in a large area, which recommends a further regional
trigger mechanism in comparison to the limited acts of loading of sediment and
storms current, collapse structures, turbiditic currents, and liquefaction via previ-
ously existing fissures. Seismic shaking due to the earthquake event could be the
most plausible trigger mechanism and it might be the major reason for the develop-
ment of the seismites within the study area, while present study area is bordered by
faults which are active in nature (neotectonically), the Panvel Flexure Fault and its
sympathetic faults. The deformed sediments found in the study area may probably
be categorized as seismites, based on their extent, nature (river deposits), shapes and
dimensions (Owen 1996; Sims 1975; Rossetti 1999; Calvo et al. 1998). The seismites
are formed due to earthquake shock after its occurrence and for the development of
these features; an area must have undergone to tectonic event and earthquake activ-
ities (Moretti and Sabato 2007; Jones and Preston 1987). The ground Shaking done
by an earthquake is the widely accepted and famous phenomena behind sediment
fluidization. All through the incidence of an earthquake, the pressures in pores are
increased for the short time, which results into the loss of contact with grain–grain
and short-term loss of strength as of limited pore water expulsion (Allen 1977). In
study area, these seismites are qualified for earthquake origin on the basis of the
explanations as follows: (a) undeformed beds of soil are present below and above the
deformed beds; (b) the size of soil grains of deformed sediments falls in the range of
soil liquefaction because of shaking due a seismic ecevnt (Balkema 1997); (c) seis-
mites and their extent, shape, magnitudes, sedimentological properties and facies,
are common to the studies on seismites by Rossetti (1999), Sims (1975), Vanneste
et al. (1999) and Jones et al. (2000); (d) the presence of active faults in the present
study area (Kumar et al. 2020a,b, 2022) and has been experiencing earthquakes with
magnitude M ≥ 5, thus the seismites in the alluvial soil from the area meet with
key conditions to be characterized as seismites. To trigger liquefaction in the soil, an
earthquake of magnitude 2–3 is enough (Seed and Idriss 1971). For causing liquefac-
tion in the soil, an earthquake magnitude must be >4.5 (Marco and Agnon 1995). The
presence of active faults within 15 km to 50 km distance of the study area also affirms
the seismites of seismic origin (Fig. 1.10). In view of all the above evidence, it has
been postulated that the seismites present in the study area are developed due to the
earthquake event of magnitude M ≥ 5. It has also been proposed that the earthquake,

which might have generated the seismites, possibly will be between magnitude 5 and
7 in the surrounding region.
In an area, if you observe seismic activeness through RIAT, the presence of
seismites etc., then it becomes essential to estimate the seismic hazard based on
the seismic potential of identified active seismic source(s). In the present study, a
displacement of the order of 25 cm (0.25 m) has been estimated along the Kelvani
fault. Based on the displacement–magnitude empirical relationship, an earthquake
potential of Mw 6.2 has been estimated along this fault. The PGA distribution map
of the region based on a scenario earthquake of MW 6.2 along the Kevani fault
at Vs of 760 m/sec2
and surface using site amplification factor estimated through
Vs have been simulated using SFFMT. A PGA value of the order of 40 cm/s2
to 1.360 cm/s2
has been estimated at Vs 760 m/sec with the maximum value in
the western part (towards the dipping direction) of the Kelvani Fault near Silvasa
(Fig. 1.3). A site amplification of the order of 0.9–2.15 has been estimated in the
study area with a maximum value in the N and NW part (near Vapi) (Fig. 1.4). The
higher value of site amplification is estimated in the area covered with the sediments.
A surface PGA of the order of 40 cm/sec2
to 440 cm/sec2
has been estimated in
the study area with a maximum value in the western part of the Kelvani fault (near
Silvasa and Rakholi, towards the dip direction) (Fig. 1.5).
Fig. 1.10 The variation in epicentre distance of seismites (blue ellipse) with their association to
1618, 1856 earthquake (M6.9 and 5.7) affected the study area (after Kumar et al. 2020a)

18 K. Mohan et al.
1.6 Conclusion
The Dadra-Nagar Haveli and the surrounding region, in western India, have been
experiencing moderate seismicity (more than 200 earthquakes (1.0 ≤ M ≤ 5.7) since
1856 including two historic events (Magnitude Ms 5 in 1935 and Magnitude Ms 5.7
in 1856). A study is conducted to map the tectonic structures in the region and their
associated tectonic-geomorphic features to infer the tectonic behaviour and their
impact on seismic hazard in the study area. RIAT of the watersheds of main rivers
has been estimated through the geomorphic analysis SL gradient, HI, BS and VF
and 03 groups (1.3 ≤ RIAT < 1.5 in class II with high activities, 1.5 ≤ RIAT < 1.8 in
class III—with moderate activities, and 1.8 ≤ RIAT in class IV—with low activities,
have been found in the study area indicating it a seismically active region. The study
area falls within the Panvel seismic zone with the presence of faults with slickenside
bearing planes, shear zones with brittle behaviour, extensional features and deformed
dykes suggesting that the study area has faced neotectonic activities and is still active
seismically. Through geological fieldwork, the evidence of past major seismic events
(>5.5) is also found well preserved in the form of SSDS/seismites in quaternary
sediments. The extent and dimension of these seismites indicate that the mechanism
to trigger these and forces driven for the source of these structures were shock waves
by an earthquake. The maximum moment magnitude of Mw 6.2 has been estimated
based on the maximum displacement recorded along the normal active fault mapped
in the study area (Kelvani Fault), which trends N170°–N350°, with a sharp dip of 72°
in the SW direction. The seismic hazard assessment of the area considering scenario
earthquake of Mw 6.2 along this fault located east of Silvasa city has been estimated
using the Stochastic Finite Fault Modelling simulation technique. A maximum PGA
of the order of 360 cm/sec2
has been estimated at the EBR with the Vs of 760 m/
sec and 440 cm/sec2
has been estimated at the surface level with a maximum site
amplification factor of 2.15 in the area.
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Chapter 2
Stress Dissipation in the North-West
Himalaya: What We Learnt
from Post-seismic Stress Changes
Somak Hajra and Devajit Hazarika
Abstract The Himalaya features a complex subduction system with varying conver-
gence rates throughout its arcuate geometry. The varying rates of convergence result
in differential stress generation, and in turn, unequal seismicity and stress dissipation
across the arc. As a result, there exist high-risk seismic zones in the seats of previously
occurred large earthquakes as well as in the seismic gaps that can potentially hold a
future great earthquake. The post-seismic stress drop is the amount of stress released
in an earthquake event. The collective stress change for a sequence of events over
a time period serves as a significant parameter in determining the rate of seismic
activity in a particular region. Comparing the stress changes for different regions
helps us identify potentially hazardous zones in terms of incomplete stress dissipa-
tion against a background of constant stress accumulation. Numerous studies have
been dedicated to the seismogenesis of the northwest (NW) Himalaya. In this chapter,
an attempt has been made to disseminate the background knowledge in seismicity and
stress scenario prevailing in the NW Himalaya and its implications in understanding
potential zones for future great earthquakes. The chapter provides a general intro-
duction to the computational methods employed in utilizing the earthquake data for
deciphering tectonic stress. It also provides an overview of the seismicity and stress
analysis of the NW Himalaya from west to east covering the Ladakh-Karakoram
zone, the Garhwal, and the Kumaon Himalaya. We compile and compare the results
in these segments to analyze the potential hazard in these segments independently,
relatively, and as a whole.
Keywords Himalaya · Stress drop · Seismic gap · Earthquakes
S. Hajra (B)
Department of Physics, University of Alberta, Edmonton T6G2M8, Canada
e-mail: somak@ualberta.ca
D. Hazarika
Geophysics Group, Wadia Institute of Himalayan Geology, Dehradun 248001, India
e-mail: devajit@wihg.res.in
© The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2023
Sandeep et al. (eds.), Geohazards, Advances in Natural and Technological
Hazards Research 53, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-99-3955-8_2
25

26 S. Hajra and D. Hazarika
2.1 Introduction
The Himalayan orogeny forms one of the youngest continental subduction zones
formed by the underplating of the northward bound Indian plate beneath the Eurasian
plate. The collision of these two immense plates consequently led to the generation
of a significant amount of stress that manifests itself in the form of numerous earth-
quakes along the entire length of the Himalayan arc. However, the convergence rate
is non-uniform in all parts of the Himalaya, thereby leading to differential stress
development. As a result, we have seismic gaps that are seismically active regions
between two great earthquakes without any damaging event over time (Khattri 1999).
The underthrusting of the heavier Indian plate has led to the development of active
thrusts in the brittle upper Eurasian crust. The subduction between these two plates is
also not smooth as several studies have reported the presence of locking in the form
of a ramp structure in the decollement boundary (Main Himalayan Thrust or MHT)
between these two plates. All major thrust sheets of the Himalaya, i.e. Himalayan
Frontal Thrust (MHT), Main Boundary Thrust (MBT), and Main Central Thrust
(MCT) sole down at depth to merge with MHT and accumulate huge strain energy.
This ramp structure at mid-crustal depths has been reported in large segments of the
north-west (NW) Himalaya such as Satluj (Hazarika et al. 2017), Garhwal (Cald-
well et al. 2013), Kumaon (Hazarika et al. 2021) and even in the central Nepal
Himalaya (Pandey et al. 1999). The MHT ramp serves as a complex zone of crustal
stress accumulation that is often dissipated in the brittle crust in form of devastating
earthquakes such as the 1905 Kangra, 1991 Uttarkashi, 1999 Chamoli, and the more
recent 2015 Gorkha earthquakes. The entire Himalayan arc is one of the most seis-
mically active belts in the world and the question still persists whether the so-called
seismic gaps are simply low-stress zones or dormant phases in the activation process
(Fig. 2.1). A large part of the Himalaya is heavily populated, and a great earthquake
event poses a significant threat. Several studies related to the tectonics, earthquake
sources, and seismogenesis have been carried out to understand the mechanism and
pattern of earthquakes in the Himalaya. Many individual studies in the NW part have
been aimed at identifying post-seismic stress changes in an attempt to understand the
stress regime of the seismic hazard zone. The present study is a compilation, compar-
ison, and summarization of the results of stress drop estimations based on spectral
analysis for understanding the potential hazard in these segments independently,
relatively, and as a whole.
2.2 Stress Drop Estimation: Concept and Methodology
The physical processes involved in the generation of an earthquake are investigated
by different seismological methods, e.g. source mechanism study through waveform
inversion technique, stress tensor inversion for regional stress pattern as well as
spectral analyses of P and S waves for source parameter study (e.g. stress drop,

2 Stress Dissipation in the North-West Himalaya: What We Learnt … 27
Fig. 2.1 Seismicity after ISC catalog (1964–2020) of the entire Himalayan arc plotted over the
topographic map (modified after Hajra et al. 2022b). The strong and great earthquakes in the
Himalaya are represented by red stars. The colored zones mark the seismic gaps with the yellow
box showing the approximate location of the NW Himalaya
rupture area, rupture length, seismic moment, and moment magnitude). Here, we
discuss the spectral analysis method to estimate source parameters. One of the most
important source parameters is the stress drop that provides the ambient stress in the
vicinity of the earthquake source before and after the occurrence of an earthquake.
For estimating source parameters, the selected P wave or S wave (3–5 s window) is
preprocessed (corrected for attenuation, baseline, trend, and mean removal) and inte-
grated to get displacement seismograms and further converted to frequency domain
using Fast Fourier Transformation. Two distinct levels of amplitudes can be recog-
nized in the spectra, i.e. a flat level at low frequencies and sharp decay of high-
frequency amplitudes (Fig. 2.2). If they are connected by straight lines they intersect
at a point termed as corner frequency (fc). The mean amplitude in the low-frequency
level is termed as low-frequency spectral level (Ωo). From these two parameters, one
can estimate the source parameters. The seismic moment can be estimated following
the generalized equation of Keilis-Borok (1960) using P or S spectra:
M0 =
4π R/
V 3
P,SρΩ0
θP,S SP,S
(2.1)
where R is the hypocentral distance, VP and VS are the P and S-wave velocities, ρ =
2800 kg/m3
is the density, θP,S is the average radiation pattern for the P and S waves,
respectively and SP,S is the surface amplification factor for P and S waves. θP = 0.52

Fig. 2.2 Examples of the a vertical and b horizontal components of a seismogram. The arrival of
P and S waves is marked by red and green lines, respectively. Spectral analysis has been carried
out for ~5 s window. The displacement spectra for P and S waves are shown in c and d. The corner
frequency (fc) of respective spectra is correspondingly marked
and θS = 0.63 are considered following Boore & Boatwright (1984). The source
radius, using P waves (rp) and S waves (rs) as well as stress drop can be re-estimated
following relations by Brune (1970):
rp =
1.92VP
2π fc
(P − wave),rs =
2.34VS
2π fc
(S − wave), and Δσ =
7M0
16r3
(2.2)
The seismic moment magnitude (Mw) is estimated from Mo values using the
relationship:
logM0 = 1.5Mw + 9.1 (2.3)
After the estimations of source parameters, the scaling relations are developed
between important source parameters (ML, Mw, M0, Δσ, and f c), which serve as
useful inputs for the assessment of earthquake hazards in a region.

2.3 Seismicity and Stress Changes in the NW Himalaya
2.3.1 Spatial Distribution of Seismicity
A strong variation of seismicity along the strike of the Himalaya reflects non-uniform
subsurface structure particularly the MHT geometry (Arora et al. 2012). The ramp
structure in the MHT is reported as the causal factor for clustered seismicity in the
Himalayan Seismic Belt (HSB) around the MCT of the Garhwal Himalaya (Cald-
well et al. 2013) and Kumaon Himalaya (Hazarika et al. 2021). The absence of such
a ramp and corresponding lack of seismicity M ≥ 5.0 in the HSB of Satluj Valley
(Hazarika et al. 2017) indicates the linkage of seismicity with ramp structure on
the MHT (Fig. 2.3). The Garhwal-Kumaon region reports the thinnest crust in NW
Himalaya varying between 40 and 55 km (Hajra et al. 2019; Hazarika et al. 2018).
Most of the crustal shortening and stress accumulation in the MHT ramp is accom-
modated into the Eurasian crust through the Lesser Himalayan Duplex (Hajra et al.
2021). As such, the Garhwal-Kumaon region shows the classic HSB pattern with
the seismicity concentrating in the upper 20 km of the crust marking the decolle-
ment ramp near the MCT. A migration or shift of seismicity is observed to the north
of Satluj Valley, i.e. near the Kaurik Chango Fault (KCF) zone. The region north
of the Himalayan thrust belt, i.e. Trans Himalayan Ladakh Karakoram zone shows
unique pattern of seismicity (Parshad et al. 2014; Paul and Hazarika 2022). The
Ladakh batholith is free from moderate and large earthquakes whereas ~700 km
long Karakoram Fault shows moderate magnitude earthquakes up to crustal depth
with dextral strike-slip motion. This Karakoram fault accommodates a large part
of strain due to India-Asian collision but surprisingly rarely generates earthquakes
of M ≥ 7.0. The absence of earthquakes of M ≥ 7 in the Karakoram Fault Zone
poses a vital scientific question that requires knowledge on stress dissipation mech-
anism. To understand stress dissipation mechanism, a number of studies have been
Fig. 2.3 Vertical cross-section across the Satluj Valley showing the merging of thrust sheets (Main
Himalayan Thrust-HFT, Main Boundary Thrust-MBT, Main Central Thrust-MCT, Munsiari Thrust-
MT, South Tibetan Detachment-STD, etc. with the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT) (Modified after
Hazarika et al. 2017). The MHT shows a ramp beyond the South Tibetan Detachment (STD) in
Satluj Valley. The Moho is gradual dipping from south to north

conductedtoestimatestressdrop.Thefollowingsectionsummarizestheobservations
and corresponding interpretations in the different segments of the Himalaya.
2.3.2 Ladakh Karakoram Zone
The Ladakh Karakoram Trans Himalaya provides a classic example of collision and
subduction tectonics through the presence of suture zones (Indus Tsangpo Suture
Zone), intra-continental Karakoram Fault (KF) zone, and exhumed blocks such as
the Tso-Morari Crystalline (TMC). The TMC exhumation is facilitated by oppositely
dipping active boundary faults, Zildat and Karzok. These faults along with the back-
thrusting Indus thrust are recognizable active thrusts in the region. Paul and Hazarika
(2022) estimated source parameters through spectral analysis of P waves of 51 local
earthquake (1.9 < ML < 4.3) data recorded by 10 local broadband seismological
stations during 2009–2012 (Fig. 2.4). The study reveals on an average low-stress drop
earthquakes in the Ladakh-Karakoram zone. The results show the seismic moment
(Mo) within the range of 1.2 × 1012
to 4.3 × 1015
Nm with stress drop values
varying from ~0.06 to 64.36 bar. The observation of low-stress drop earthquake has
significant implications in explaining seismogenesis in the region. The low-stress
drop events in the earthquake cluster of the TMC is explained by the brittle shear
failure on the active Zildat and Karzok Faults based on the concept of partial stress
drop model (Brune 1970) (see Sect. 2.3.5). According to this model, the complex
fault geometry, or asperities on the fault play a significant role. The low-stress drop
earthquakes of Karakoram Fault are interpreted as due to the presence of aseismic
creeping patches producing low-stress drop earthquakes at the expense of generating
large earthquakes. These creeping patches are not able to withstand much stress and
release it in the form of micro-earthquakes. Geological studies (e.g. Wallis et al. 2013)
investigated the exhumed fault rocks formed in the frictional-viscous transition zone
in the KFZ and found evidence of several weakening mechanisms associated with
reduced coefficients of friction (<0.4).
2.3.3 The Kangra Earthquake Zone
While the LKZ lies in the Trans Himalaya, the Kangra-Chamba zone lies in the
Himalayan fold-thrust belt and was host to the devastating 1905 Kangra earthquake.
Most of the earthquakes recorded in the region are M < 3 and are mainly confined
between MBT and MCT (Sharma and Wason 1994). Alike the LKZ, the seismicity
ranges from shallow (~5 km) to deeper (~60 km) crust. The Kangra-Chamba zone
exhibits heavy microseismicity distributed in the LH sequence of the previously
discussed HSB. The region is highly deformed and the presence of active local faults
is also thought to have contributed to the local microseismicity (Fig. 2.5).

Fig. 2.4 Seismicity map of the LKZ showing the effect of tectonic features and local thrusts
(adapted from Paul and Hazarika 2022). The grey and the red circles represent the earthquake
epicenters from the reviewed ISC catalog and local study (Hazarika et al. 2017) using broad-
band seismological stations shown by blue triangles, respectively. The red circles represent the
earthquakes used in source parameter study
Several individual stress drop experiments have been conducted in the vicinity of
the Kangra earthquake zone in pockets such as Kishtwar (north-west of the Kangra
earthquake zone), Dharamshala, and Bilaspur. The stress drop of reported earth-
quakes in the Kishtwar zone varies between 5.8 MPa and 13.0 MPa and for the
Dharamshala zone between 3.2 MPa and 13.3 MPa (1 bar = 0.1 MPa). The seismic
moment of these earthquakes vary between 1011
N-m and 1016
N-m while the rupture
radius is limited between 0.12 and 1.15 km (Sharma et al. 2014). These values are
a marked decrease to what is observed in the Ladakh Himalaya. One may argue
that the occurrence of a significantly damaging 1905 Kangra earthquake may have
drastically reduced the zonal stress. The epicentral zone of the Kangra earthquake
zones show intense seismic clustering with stress drop between 10 and 26 bar (Kumar
et al. 2013). The adjacent Bilaspur region recorded coincident low- and high-stress
drop events ranging between 1 and 51 bars (Kumar et al. 2014). Seismic moments of

Fig. 2.5 Effect of the Delhi-Hardwar ridge on the seismicity in the vicinity of the 1905 Kangra
earthquake zone. The seismicity is for the period of 1960–2015 (Source ISC catalog; www.isc.
ac.uk) and adapted from Hazarika et al. 2017. The epicenter of 1905 Kangra earthquake and its
rupture area is shown by the red star and the shaded area, respectively. The major cities are marked
for reference
these events are similar to that in the Kishtwar and vary between 1012
and 1014
N-m.
The source radii of the Bilaspur events are relatively smaller and vary between 187
and 518 m. The Kinnaur region exhibits a diffused seismicity with a northward shift.
Kumari et al. (2021) studied the shallow focus microseisms in the Kinnaur and found
them to have much lower stress drop (0.03–13 bar) and seismic moment (1011
–1014
)
N-m. This is much low in comparison to the earthquakes in this segment.
2.3.4 The Garhwal and Kumaon Himalaya
The easternmost segment of the NW Himalaya comprises of the Garhwal-Kumaon
Himalaya, which is one of the heavily studied segments of the NW Himalaya. This
is largely because of its accessibility as well as the occurrence of quite a few recent

notable earthquakes such as the 1991 Uttarkashi, 1999 Chamoli, 2007 Kharsali, and
the 2017 Rudraprayag earthquakes. As such, this region has been subjected to seis-
motectonic and earthquake precursory studies with one of the long-standing multi-
parametric observatories in India situated in Ghuttu, Garhwal Himalaya (Shukla
et al. 2020). This region has no notable large earthquakes reported over a long
period. However, the region has high reported microseismicity, which is credited
to the highly brittle crust unable to withstand high seismic stress (Hajra et al. 2022a).
Numerous seismic experiments have been carried out in the Garhwal-Kumaon
Himalayafromtimetotimetostudythesourcecharacteristicsofthelocalearthquakes
(Borkar et al. 2013; Singh et al. 2018; Sivaram et al. 2013; Sharma and Wason 1994).
Recent studies such as Hajra et al. (2022b) and Kumari et al. (2021) have carried
out an extensive region-wise comparison of these study results over the entire NW
Himalaya. Compiled data from different studies carried out in Garhwal-Kumaon
show a diverse range of both moment magnitude (0.8 < Mw < 6.8) and seismic
moment (1010
< Mo < 1019
N-m). The source radii of the earthquakes in this region
vary from 100 m to 13.2 km and the stress drop between 0.01 and 77 bar. Amidst
the background of low-stress drop microseisms, there are moderate events in the
vicinity of the MHT ramp releasing stress from time to time such as the 1991
Uttarkashi (M ~ 7; σ ~ 77 bar), 1999 Chamoli (M ~ 6.9; σ ~ 65 bar), 2007 Kharsali (M
~ 4.9; σ ~ 42 bar), 2017 Rudraprayag (M ~ 5.5; σ ~ 40 bar) and 2016 Dharchula (M ~
5.1; σ ~ 28 bar) earthquakes. The upper 10 km of the crust is brittle and inhabited by
earthquakes with low-stress drop values between 1 and 10 bar. Beyond 20 km depth,
the events are significantly reduced with their σ value decreasing with depth. The
mantle shows very few earthquakes and a very low-stress drop. Overall, the region
experiences a multitude of low as well as high-stress drop events. Several experiments
show that, for the Garhwal Himalaya, the seismic moments vary from 1014
to 1017
N-m while the source radii vary from 0.4 km to 2.3 km (Kumar et al. 2016). Hajra
et al. (2022b) observed that in comparison to Garhwal, earthquakes in the Kumaon
Himalaya record lesser value of stress drop and source radii for similar values of
seismic moments (Fig. 2.6). This further supports the deformation and incomplete
stress dissipation in the Kumaon Himalaya. The stress drop overall is dissimilar for
different size of earthquakes suggesting a self-similar nature of earthquake sources
(Kumar et al. 2016).
2.3.5 The Complex Stress Picture of the NW Himalaya
Two different models have been postulated to explain the occurrence of low-stress
drop events: partial stress drop and low effective stress model (Brune 1970; Brune
et al. 1976). The former model considers complex fault geometry or fault barriers.
As such, the fault locks soon after the rupture, thereby restricting average slip. This
post-earthquake rapid locking in a fault causes low-stress drop as the fault slip cannot
reach optimum dynamic stress drop along the entire fault. The latter model attributes
low-stress drop events to generating effective stress too low to accelerate the fault.

Fig. 2.6 Contour map for 25-year compilation of stress drop for earthquakes in Garhwal-Kumaon
Himalaya between 1994 and 2018 (adapted from Hajra et al. 2022b). The notable events during the
period have been marked by blue stars. The black arrows at the top represent the zonal convergence
rates in mm/year for the NW Himalaya (Stevens and Avouac 2016)
The presence of high pore fluid pressure favors such low effective stress condition.
However, this model is not viable as most of the Himalayan segments are highly
stressed as observed by GPS studies (Bilham et al. 2001; Stevens and Avouac 2016).
The low-stress drop of shallow events in the TMC Ladakh can be explained by
the partial stress drop model caused by complex geometry, asperities and possible
presence of creeping patches in the fault zone that are not able to withstand much
stress ontheassociatedfaults. Themicroseisms areconsideredtobepoint sources and
do not represent the entire sizable fault. The average slip in such cases does not reach
the total dynamic stress drop of the entire fault surface (Paul and Hazarika 2022).
Such fault-weakening mechanisms in the frictional-viscous transition zone of the KF
associated with reduced coefficients of friction (<0.4) can promote aseismic creep
without generating large earthquakes. Brune’s circular model states that the stress
drop of earthquakes in a region should be constant irrespective of its size. However,
studies in Kangra as well as Garhwal-Kumaon segments Himalaya confirm that the
stress drop changes with earthquake size for relatively low magnitude events. For
relatively higher-magnitude earthquakes, it appears to follow the Brune’s model. This
can be explained by the presence of brittle and weak rocks in the upper crust that

hinder stress accumulation. The release of seismic energy is localized close to the
major tectonic elements indicating high strains. Hidden faults with stable barriers
that are not exposed on the surface are a source of concern. Strain localizations
and diffused seismicity in the Satluj Valley are attributed to the arc-perpendicular
continuation of ridge structure (Delhi-Hardwar Ridge) into the Himalaya along with
the normal Kaurik Chango fault (Arora et al. 2012; Hazarika et al. 2017). Seismic
studies have repeatedly emphasized the impact of local structures in the Kangra as
well as in the Garhwal Himalaya. Again, the crustal duplex in the Kumaon Himalaya
is an indicator of complex strain mechanism. The crustal shortening through the
duplex structure involves high wear and tear of the crust subsiding the possibility of
accumulating stress in the region. Apart from the role of local structures, the presence
of reported intra-crustal fluid is another factor downplaying stress accumulation
(Mahesh et al. 2012; Hajra et al. 2021). These rheological implications lead to fault
weakening and aseismic slip, which in turn, lead to incomplete stress dissipation.
2.4 Summary and Outlook
The Himalayan orogeny presents mechanisms far more complex than a traditional
subduction system with different seismicity patterns and guiding mechanisms in
various segments. Large earthquakes in the past have shown the capacity for stress
build-up in this part of the crust. However, different inhibiting factors as discussed
work against such stress build-up. Occasional moderate to large events have been
inadequate in releasing the generated stress. Consequently, with high regional conver-
gence rates, reported slip deficits and strain build-up due to fault locking, the antic-
ipation of future large earthquakes seems natural. Different seismic experiments
in the NW Himalaya show incomplete stress dissipation through low-stress drop
microseisms. These studies deduce important scaling relations that are in-situ char-
acteristics of the local seismotectonics. These scaling relations provide important
contribution to seismic hazard studies. However, these studies have been conducted
in pockets of NW Himalaya and a large part of it still remains seismically unexplored.
This emphasizes on the need for extensive stress drop analysis to obtain the complete
picture for the stress regime. A complete dataset and knowledge in this regard is the
only way we can contemplate about prediction/precursory studies countering the
possessed seismic risk in the Himalaya.
References
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seismicity of the northwest Himalaya. J Asian Earth Sci 57:15–24
Bilham R, Gaur VK, Molnar P (2001) Himalayan seismic hazard. Science 293(5534):1442–1444

Borkar Y, Kumar A, Gupta SC, Kumar A (2013) Source parameters and scaling relation for local
earthquakes in the Garhwal and Kumaun Himalaya, India. Int J Adv Seism 11:1–15
Brune JN (1970) Tectonic stress and seismic shear waves from earthquakes. J Geophy Res 75:4997–
5009
Brune JN (1976) The physics of earthquake strong motion. In: Developments in geotechnical
engineering, Elsevier, vol 15, pp 141–177
Caldwell WB, Klemperer SL, Lawrence JF, Rai SS, Ashish, (2013) Characterizing the main
Himalayan thrust in the Garhwal Himalaya, India with receiver function CCP stacking. Earth
Planet Sci Lett 367:15–27
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poisson’s ratio beneath the kali river valley, Kumaon Himalaya. J Asian Earth Sci 173
Hajra S, Hazarika D, Kumar N, Pal SK, Roy PNS (2021) Seismotectonics and stress perspective of
the Kumaun Himalaya: a geophysical evidence of a lesser Himalayan duplex. Tectonophysics
806:228801
Hajra S, Hazarika D, Mondal S, Pal SK, Roy PNS (2022a) Deformation of the upper crust in the
Kumaon Himalaya analyzed from seismic anisotropy and gravity lineament studies. Phys Earth
Planet Inter 322:106827
Hajra S, Hazarika D, Shukla V, Kundu A, Pant CC (2022b) Stress dissipation and seismic potential
in the central seismic gap of the north-west Himalaya. J Asian Earth Sci 239:105432
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beneath multi-parametric geophysical observatory at Ghuttu, Garhwal Himalaya. Him Geol
39(2):233–241
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Himalayan thrust beneath the Kumaon Himalaya: constraints from receiver function analysis.
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Khattri KN (1999) Probabilities of occurrence of great earthquakes in the Himalaya. Proc Indian
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Kumar V, Kumar D, Chopra S (2016) Estimation of source parameters and scaling relations for
moderate size earthquakes in North-West Himalaya. J Asian Earth Sci 128:79–89
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structural elements for the meizoseismal region of great 1905 Kangra earthquake of the NW
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Title: Index of the Project Gutenberg Works of Frédéric Bastiat
Author: Frédéric Bastiat
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*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK INDEX OF THE
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INDEX OF THE PROJECT
GUTENBERG
WORKS OF
FRÉDÉRIC BASTIAT
Compiled by David Widger

CONTENTS
Click on the ## before each title to view a
linked
table of contents for that volume.
Click on the title itself to open the original
online file.
## ESSAYS ON POLITICAL ECONOMY
## WHAT IS FREE TRADE
## SOPHISMS OF THE PROTECTIONISTS
## ECONOMIC SOPHISMS
## THE LAW
## HARMONIES OF POLITICAL ECONOMY
## PROTECTION AND COMMUNISM

TABLES OF CONTENTS OF
VOLUMES
ESSAYS ON POLITICAL
ECONOMY

By M. Frederic Bastiat
Member of The Institute of France.
CONTENTS
CAPITAL AND INTEREST.
Introduction
Capital and Interest
The Sack of Corn
The House
The Plane
THAT WHICH IS SEEN, AND THAT WHICH IS NOT SEEN.
Introduction
The Broken Window
The Disbanding of Troops
Taxes
Theatres, Fine Arts
Public Works
The Intermediates
Restrictions
Machinery
Credit
Algeria
Frugality and Luxury

Work and Profit
Government
What Is Money?
The Law
WHAT IS FREE TRADE?
An Adaptation Of Frederick Bastiat's
"Sophismes Économiques."
DESIGNED FOR THE AMERICAN READER.
BY EMILE WALTER
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION. vii
CHAPTER I. Plenty and Scarcity 11
CHAPTER II. Obstacles to Wealth and Causes of Wealth 16
CHAPTER III.Effort—Result 20
CHAPTER IV.Equalizing of the Facilities of Production 27

CHAPTER V. Our Productions are Overloaded with
Internal Taxes
48
CHAPTER VI.Balance of Trade 55
CHAPTER VII.A Petition 72
CHAPTER VIII.Discriminating Duties 79
CHAPTER IX. A Wonderful Discovery 81
CHAPTER X. Reciprocity 86
CHAPTER XI. Absolute Prices 90
CHAPTER XII.Does Protection raise the Rate of Wages? 95
CHAPTER XIII.Theory and Practice 102
CHAPTER XIV.Conflict of Principles 110
CHAPTER XV.Reciprocity Again 115
CHAPTER XVI.Obstructed Rivers plead for the
Prohibitionists
118
CHAPTER XVII.A Negative Railroad 120
CHAPTER XVIII.There are no Absolute Principles 122
CHAPTER XIX.National Independence 126
CHAPTER XX. Human Labor—National Labor 129
CHAPTER XXI.Raw Material 136
CHAPTER XXII.Metaphors 147
CHAPTER XXII.Conclusion 152
SOPHISMS OF THE
PROTECTIONISTS.

By M. Frederic Bastiat
CONTENTS
Part I. Sophisms of Protection—First Series.
Part II. Sophisms of Protection—Second Series.
Part III. Spoliation and Law.
Part IV. Capital and Interest.
ECONOMIC SOPHISMS

By Frederic Bastiat
CONTENTS
TRANSLATOR'S PREFACE.
ECONOMIC SOPHISMS. FIRST SERIES.
INTRODUCTION.
I. ABUNDANCE, SCARCITY.
II. OBSTACLE, CAUSE.
III. EFFORT, RESULT.
IV. TO EQUALIZE THE CONDITIONS OF PRODUCTION.
V. OUR PRODUCTS ARE BURDENED WITH TAXES.
VI. BALANCE OF TRADE.
VII. OF THE MANUFACTURERS
VIII. DIFFERENTIAL DUTIES.
IX. IMMENSE DISCOVERY.
X. RECIPROCITY.
XI. NOMINAL PRICES.
XII. DOES PROTECTION RAISE THE RATE OF WAGES?
XIII. THEORY, PRACTICE.
XIV. CONFLICT OF PRINCIPLES.
XV. RECIPROCITY AGAIN.
XVI. OBSTRUCTED NAVIGATION PLEADING FOR THE
PROHIBITIONISTS.
XVII. A NEGATIVE RAILWAY.

XVIII. THERE ARE NO ABSOLUTE PRINCIPLES.
XIX. NATIONAL INDEPENDENCE.
XX. HUMAN LABOUR, NATIONAL LABOUR.
XXI. RAW MATERIALS.
XXII. METAPHORS.
CONCLUSION.
SECOND SERIES.
I. PHYSIOLOGY OF SPOLIATION.
II. TWO PRINCIPLES OF MORALITY.
III. THE TWO HATCHETS.
IV. LOWER COUNCIL OF LABOUR.
V. DEARNESS-CHEAPNESS.
VI. TO ARTISANS AND WORKMEN.
VII. A CHINESE STORY.
VIII. POST HOC, ERGO PROPTER HOC.
IX. THE PREMIUM THEFT.
X. THE TAXGATHERER.
XI. THE UTOPIAN FREE-TRADER.
XII. THE SALT-TAX, RATES OF POSTAGE, AND CUSTOMHOUSE
DUTIES.
XIII. PROTECTION; OR, THE THREE CITY MAGISTRATES.
Demonstration in Four
XIV. SOMETHING ELSE.
XV. THE LITTLE ARSENAL OF THE FREE-TRADER.
XVI. THE RIGHT HAND AND THE LEFT.
XVII. DOMINATION BY LABOUR.

By Frédéric Bastiat
FOREWORD
THE LAW
FOOTNOTES:
INDEX

INDEX
Action, human. See Individualism;
Mankind
Agriculture analogy to society, 35
Persian, 26
Antiquity. See Greece; Rome
Authority. See Government
Beggars, 11
Billaud-Varennes, Jean Nicolas, 38
Blanc, Louis competition, 45
doctrine, 42, 43
force of society, 47, 48
labor, 42
law, 50, 52
Bonaparte, Napoleon, 41
Bossuet, Jacques Bénigne, 25, 26
Cabetists, 46, 47
Capital displacement, 2
Carlier, Pierre, 13
Carthage, 32
Charity, vii, 5, 17
See also Wealth, equality of; Welfare
Classical studies, 25, 26, 36, 37, 38
Collectivism, 2, 3
See also Government
Communism, 18
Competition
meaning, 45
results, 45
Condillac, Étienne Bonnot de, 35, 38
Constituent Assembly, 24
Conventionality, 37

Crete, 28
Defense right of, 2, 3, 37, 49, 50
Democracy, vi, 43, 44
Democrats, 43
Dictatorship, vii, 39, 40
Disposition, fatal, 5, 37, 38
Distribution, 33, 34
Dole, 10, 11
See also Welfare
Dupin, Charles, 13
Education classical, 26, 38
controlled, 33
Greek, 26
liberty in, 44
free, 21, 22
government provided, 22, 48
Egypt, 25, 26, 27
Elections, 43, 44
See also Voting
Employment
assigned, 26
See also Labor
Equality of wealth, 11, 20, 29, 36
Fénelon, François de Salignac de La
Mothe antiquity, 27, 29
Telemachus, 27
Force common or collective, 2, 3
individual, 2, 3
motive, of society, 40, 43
See also Government; Law
Forced conformity, viii
Fourier, François Marie Charles, 41
Fourierists, 46
France revolutions, 47
Fraternity legally enforced, 16, 17, 21, 22
Fraud, 13, 14
Freedom. See Liberty
French Revolution, 38
public services, 10, 11
purpose of, v relaxed, 35

republican, 30, 39
responsibility and, 3, 47, 48, 51
results, 28
stability, 31
virtue, 39
See also Communism, Socialism
Greece education, 26
law, 26, 27
republic, 29, 30
Sparta, 32, 36, 38
Greed, 5
Happiness of the governed, 28
History, 5
Humanity lost, 19, 20
Imports. See Trade
Individualism, 3
Industry, protected. See Protectionism
Jobs. See Employment
Justice and injustice, distinction
between, 7
generalized, 7
immutable, 49, 50
intentions and, 17, 18
law and, 3, 6, 49
reigning, 19
General welfare, 19
Government
American ideal of, v
corrupting education by, vi
democratic, 29, 43, 44
education, 23, 48
force, 2, 3
function, 38
monopoly, 45
morality, 39
motive force, 40, 43
power, v, 47
Labor displaced, 4

Land. See Property
Law
Cretan, 28
defined, 2, 16
Egyptian, 25, 26, 27, 28
fraternity and, 17
functions, 16, 31, 33, 49, 50
Greek, 26, 28, 29
justice and, 3, 4, 16, 51
morality and, 7, 21
motive force, 25
object of, 19
omnipotence, 44, 49
Persian, 26
perverted, v, 1, 5
philanthropic, 17
plunder and, 5, 13
posterior and inferior, 2, 3
respect for, 7, 9
Rousseau's views, 31, 33, 38
spirit of, 32
study of, 25
United States, 12
See also Legislation
Lamartine, Alphonse Marie Louis de,
fraternity, 17
government power, 48, 49
Lawgiver, 38, 43
Legislation conflict in, 32
monopoly on, 5
struggle for control of, 11, 12
universal right of, 7
See also Law
Legislator. See Lawgiver; Politicians
Lepéletier, Louis Michel de Saint Fargeau, 39
Liberty competition and, 44, 45
defined, 42
denied, 44, 45
described, 53
education and, 44, 45
individual, 3
as power, 43
returned to, 55

seeking, 38
Life, faculties of, 1
Louis XIV 27
Lycurgus government, 30, 35, 36
influence, 33, 40
Mably, Abbé Gabriel Bonnot de, 35, 39
Mankind assimilation, 2
concern for, 54
degraded, 25
divided, 23
inert, 23, 25, 26, 28, 31, 35, 36, 38, 39, 42, 43, 44, 47
inertia, 44
as machine, 31
nature of, 33
violation of, 52
Melun, Armand de, 52
Mentor, 28, 29
Mimerel de Roubaix, Pierre Auguste
Remi, 52
Monopoly, 5, 45
Montalembert, Charles, Comte de, 13, 15
Montesquieu, Charles Louis de Secondât, Baron de, 29, 31
Morality law and, 21, 22
Morelly, 41
Napoleon, 41
Natural rights, v
Nature, gifts of, 1
Oliver de Serres, Guillaume Antoine, 29
Order, 3
Owen, Robert, 41
Ownership. See Property
Paraguay, 30
Persia, 26
Personality, 2
Phalansteries, 55
Philanthropy. See Charity
Plato republic, 30

Plunder absence of, 16
burdens of, 5, 6
defined, 17
general welfare and, 19
extralegal, 13
kinds, 13
legal, v, ix, 6, 13, 22
organized, 14
origin of, 6
partial, 15, 16
socialistic, 13
universal, 15, 16
Politicians dreams of, 36
genius of, 30
goodness of, 25
importance of, 22, 23
responsibility of, 27
social engineers, 22, 24, 32, 34, 37, 38, 40, 42, 44, 45
superior, 46, 54
Politics exaggerated importance of, 8
and favors, vi
plunder through, vi
Poor relief. See Charity; Welfare
Power. See Government
Property man and, 2
origin of, 5
Protectionism, 18
United States, 12
Proudhonians, 46
Providence, 55
Public relief, 10, 20, 29
Raynal, Abbé Guillaume, 33, 35
Religion, State, 22
Rent seeking, vi, vii
Republic kinds of, 29
virtues of, 39
Revolt, 6
Revolution, 47
French, 38
Rhodes, 32
Rights individual, v, 2, 3
Roberspierre, Jean Jacques

government, 38
lawgiver, 40
Rome virtue, 32
Rousseau, Jean Jacques
disciples, 8, 9
on the lawgiver, 31, 33
Saint-Cricq, Barthélémy, Pierre Laurent, Comte de, 50
Saint-Just, Louis Antoine Léon de, 38
Saint-Simon, Claude Henri, Comte de doctrine, 41
Salentum, 27, 29
Security consequences, 3
Self-defense, 2, 37, 49, 50
Selfishness, 5
Serres, Oliver de, 29
Slavery,
United States, viii, 12
universality, 5
Socialism confused, ix, 22
defined, 14, 15
disguised, 22
experiments, 23, 24
legal plunder, 13
sincerely believed, 18
social engineers, 22, 24
refutation of, 15
Socialists, vii
Society enlightened, 37
experiments, 23
motive force, 40, 43
object of, 36, 37
parable of the traveler, 54, 55
Solon, 33, 35
Sparta, 32, 36
Spoliation. See Plunder
State. See Government
Suffrage. See Universal suffrage
Tariffs, vi, viii
Telemachus, 27
Terror as means of republican government, 39, 40
Theirs, Louis Adolphe

doctrine, 52
education, 45
Tyre, 32
United States, viii, 12
Declaration of Independence, v
Universal suffrage demand for, 9, 43, 44, 46, 47
importance of, 10
incapacity and, 9
objections, 9
Vaucanson, Jacques de, 54
Vested interests, 13, 14
Virtue and vice, 28, 30, 35, 36, 40
Voting responsibility and, 9, 10
right of, 10
See also Universal suffrage
Want satisfaction, 4
Wealth equality of, 11, 21, 29, 36
transfer of, vii
Welfare, 10, 20, 28
PROTECTION and
COMMUNISM

By Frederic Bastiat
CONTENTS
TRANSLATOR'S PREFACE.
PROTECTION AND COMMUNISM.
HARMONIES OF POLITICAL
ECONOMY

By Frédéric Bastiat
CONTENTS
Page
Notice of the Life and Writings of Frédéric Bastiat, 9
To the Youth of France, 33
Chapter I. Natural and Artificial Organization, 47
II. Wants, Efforts, Satisfactions, 63
III. Wants of Man, 75
IV. Exchange, 97
V. Of Value, 131
VI. Wealth, 180
VII. Capital, 196
VIII. Property-Community, 218
IX. Landed Property, 249
X. Competition, 288
XI. Producer-Consumer, 323
XII. The Two Aphorisms, 339
XIII. Rent, 347
XIV. Wages, 352
XV. Saving, 393
XVI. Population, 397
XVII. Private and Public Services, 425
XVIII. Disturbing Causes, 446
XIX. War, 454
XX. Responsibility, 465
XXI. Solidarity, 488

XXII. Social Motive Force, 495
XXIII. Existence of Evil, 504
XXIV. Perfectibility, 508
XXV. Relations of Political Economy with Religion, 513
Index, 518

INDEX
A.
Accumulation, a circumstance of no account in Political
Economy, page 169, note.
Air, Atmospheric, has utility without having value, 137;
but if pumped into a diving-bell, the service has value,
138.
Algeria, usual rate of interest in, said to be 10 per cent., 302.
Aphorisms, the Two, "Each for all, all for each"-"Each for
himself, each by himself," 339-346.
Opposed to each other if we regard the motive, not so if
we look to results, 339.
No incompatibility in this last view between individualism
and association, 340.
Men associate in obedience to self-interest, ib.
Difficulties attending a state of isolation lead naturally to
association, 341.
As regards labour and exchanges, the principle "Each for
himself" must be predominant, 342.
By following the rule each for himself, individual efforts
act in the direction of each for all, 343.
Icarian expedition proceeded on the principle of all for
each, 344, note.
Principles of Socialism and Communism refuted, 343, 344.
All desire monopolies and privileges, even the working
classes, at their own expense, 345, 346.
B.
Barter, primitive form of exchange, direct or roundabout, 108.
When barter is effected by means of an intermediate
commodity, it is called sale and purchase, 109.

Barter of two factors, 110.
Value resolves itself into a barter of services, 137.
Bastiat, Frédéric, his birth, parentage, and education, p. 9.
His early friendship with M. Calmètes, ib.
Begins the study of Political Economy, 10.
Gives up commerce as a profession, ib.
His friendship with M. Coudroy, ib.
They study Philosophy and Political Economy together, ib.
Takes part in the Revolution of 1830, 11.
Bastiat publishes his first brochure in 1834, ib.
Becomes Juge de Paix, and a Member of the Council-
General, ib.
Visits Spain, Portugal, and England, 12.
Writes Le Fisc et la Vigne, ib.
Publishes two other brochures in 1843 and 1844, ib.
Anecdote regarding unfounded Anglophobia, ib.
Sends his first contribution to the Journal des
Économistes, 13.
Publishes Cobden et la Ligue in 1845, ib.
Letter to Mr Cobden quoted, ib.
Named a corresponding member of the Institute, 14.
Letter to M. Calmètes quoted, ib.
Visits Paris, and introduced to leading economists, 15.
Visits England in 1845, and makes the acquaintance of
Cobden, Bright, and the other Corn-Law Leaguers, ib.
Letter to M. Coudroy quoted, 15, 16.
Bastiat complains of the hatred to England then prevalent
in France, 16.
Settles in Paris, ib.
His appearance, as described by M. de Molinari and M.
Reybaud, 17.
Letters to Cobden and Coudroy quoted, ib.
Conducts the Libre-Échange newspaper, 18.
His mode of life in Paris, ib.
Publishes the Sophismes Économiques, great success of
that work, and extract from it, 18, 19, 20, 21.

Delivers a course of lectures on Political Economy, 21.
Is returned as a member of the Legislative Assembly, ib.
His daily occupations, 22.
His pamphlets against the Socialists, Propriété et Loi;
Propriété et Spoliation; Justice et Fraternité; Capital et
Rente; Gratuité du Credit; Protectionisme et
Communisme, etc., published in 1848-49, ib.
Publishes Baccalauréat et Socialisme, and Ce qu'on voit et
ce qu'on ne voit pas, in 1850, 23.
Extract from the latter, 24, 25.
Projects Harmonies Économiques, and letter to Mr Cobden
on that subject quoted, 25.
Letter to M. Coudroy on the same subjects, ib.
His health begins to give way, 26, 27.
His account of the reception of the Harmonies, 27.
Notice of that work, 27, 28, 29.
List of chapters intended to complete the second volume
of the Harmonies, 30, note.
Goes to Italy on account of his health, 30.
His letter to M. Coudroy from Rome, 31.
His last illness and death, 31, 32.
Bell, Sir Charles, his work on the Hand quoted, 29, note.
Blanqui, his opinions on landed property quoted, 255.
Bonald, M. de, quoted, 152.
Brazil, usual rate of interest in, said to be 20 per cent., 302.
Buchanan, D., his opinions on landed property quoted, 252.
Buret, M., his false theory on the relations of capitalist and
labourer, 384.
Butler, Bishop, his Sermons on Human Nature quoted, 478,
note.
Byron, Lord, quoted, 32.
C.
Cairnes, Professor, quoted, 18.
Caisses de Retraite, friendly accumulation societies to provide
for old age, 372, note.

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