GILMonaco 2014 keynote disrupt, collapse and transform
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This document discusses three categories of business models: disrupt, transform, and collapse. Disruptive business models create new markets through innovations like taxi apps Uber and Hailo. Transforming models evolve through new value propositions or product design, like AT&T's connected living solutions. Collapsing models see the shutdown of old processes due to new technologies, like Kodak after digital photography. The document also discusses major trends impacting business and society, such as urbanization, smart cities, connectivity, health and mobility.
GILMonaco 2014 keynote disrupt, collapse and transform
- 1. GIL 2014: MONACO The Global Community of Growth, Innovation and Leadership #GILMonaco
- 2. Disrupt, Collapse, Transform: New Business Models Paving the Way to Innovation
- 3. 3 Key Categories of Business Models Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Disrupt Transform Collapse
- 4. A business model that leads to the creation of a new market or a value network, usually through innovations in new technology. Disrupt
- 5. Hailo (UK, 2011) •Launched in London 2011; 13,000 drivers & 3m journeys there to date •Now present in 16 cities with 42,000 drivers, 750,000 users, 8.5m journeys to date, amassing $100m annual taxi revenues •Several investors totalling $50m, including Richard Branson Uber (USA, 2011) •In 100 cities (Jan ‘14), growing at 18% per month, estimated $125m revenue 2013 •Reported $250m investment from several firms, inc. Google Ventures – self driving vehicle? •Integrates taxi, “black sedan” and SUV hire – aiming at the premium chauffeur market B2C Example: Example of On Demand Services: Taxi Apps Assess the threat of taxi & on demand apps, and consider investing in current providers or a new rival Proposition
- 6. Complete redundancy or shutting down of old techniques, processes and even businesses due to the advent of new technology or radically new innovations Collapse
- 7. Other Examples of Collapsing Business Models 7 Collapse of Kodak after Digital Print Digital Retail Collapsing Brick and Mortar Store Collapse of Blockbuster after Digital Film Possible Collapse?
- 8. Business models that focus on high-growth yet evolutionary development of the business either through re-inventing the wheel in terms of new value propositions or investment in new product design. Transform
- 9. Case Study B2B Business Model: AT&T’s Digital Life: Alliance Based/ Partnership Model 9 Security System E.g. Honeywell Control Panels E.g. Cisco Wireless Sensors E.g. Aeon Labs Analytics E.g. Aeon Labs Connected Living Package Solution E.g. AT&T Digital Life Retail Stores: DIY Package sold at retail stores Direct Selling: Professional Installation at Home Aggregated by Telecom Operators A B Aggregator Telecom Vendors Installation Telecom Vendors (or DIY) Operation & Maintenance Telecom Vendors and eco-system of partners Analytics & Monitoring Third-party analytics and monitoring stations / Telecom Vendor Monitoring Station Source: AT&T, Verizon and Frost & Sullivan analysis. Through M2M connectivity and network connectivity, these providers aggregate various solutions and offer as connected living solutions on unified platforms
- 10. Fast-Forward to 2025: New Mega Trends Transforming the World as We Know It Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future Business, Cultures and Personal Lives
- 11. What is a Mega Trend? What is a Mega Trend? Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the future world with their far reaching impact on business, societies, economies, cultures and personal lives. Urbanization – City as a Customer Smart is the New Green Social Trends Connectivity and Convergence Bricks and Clicks Innovating to Zero New Business Models: Value for Many Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers Future Infrastructure Development Health, Wellness and Well Being Future of Mobility 11 Top Mega Trends Covered By The Visionary Innovation Research Division Future of Energy
- 13. Digital Currency: $11 billion worth of Bitcoins in circulation currently Connected Living: $730 Billion Market Opportunity in 2020 Personal Robots: Robots priced between $1,566 and $4,699 could enter our personal lives 3D/4D Printing: $7.3 Billion Market Opportunity by 2020 Augmented Reality/Virtual World: New Markets of Augmented Shopping and Virtual Commerce Space Jam: 1,213 Total Number of satellites globally by 2021 4D Printing: Self- assembling/self-repairing objects could enter our lives by 2050 Nanobots: Swarms of Nanobots could enter manufacturing and energy by 2030 Sensorization of Devices: From Touchscreen to Brain-controlled devices Wearable Devices: Over $11 billion market estimated for 2020 Big Data: 40% annual growth in big data to 2020 80 Billion Connected Devices in 2020 and $14.7Tr internet economy Powered Exoskeletons : Iron Man style exoskeletons could enter our lives by 2050
- 14. 14 Connectivity in Africa: $200 B Opportunity by 2020 ` E-Applications and localised African VAS content $9.60 Billion Mobility Mobile operators Revenue will double in next ten years due to data uptake Contact Centre and BPO $7.79 Billion Infrastructure Development $60.00 Billion M-Health $40.00 Billion Devices Over $70.00 Billion Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Key Connectivity Drivers, Africa, 2010-2020
- 15. Connectivity Driven Convergence Connectivity Driven Convergence: Industries, Products, Technologies ... Competition INDUSTRIES PRODUCTS Internet Sensors Remote Monitoring TECHNOLOGIES Haptics MRI scans Haptic Based MRIs Healthcare Industry Mobile Phones mHealth 1 3 2 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis Image Source:: `Creative Commons and Dreamstime.
- 16. Urbanisation - “City as a Customer” 16
- 17. Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future Seoul Accounts for about 50% of Korea’s GDP New York City, with a GDP of $1.28 trillion, is equivalent to being the 15th largest country in the world, close in economic scale to South Korea ($1.12 trillion). What are the Micro Implications? High Economic Power Hub and Spoke Business Model Transit oriented development City as a Customer 17
- 18. 18 Urbanisation in Africa: $1.36 T Opportunity by 2020 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Key Urbanisation Drivers, Africa, 2010-2020 ` Electricity $0.5 trillion in electricity infrastructure Healthcare Infrastructure $30.00 billion private healthcare infrastructure Infrastructure $30.00 billion in road and rail infrastructure upgrading Port Infrastructure Port infrastructure investment and upgrading of $0.2 trillion Water Sanitation Infrastructure and Chemicals $0.6 trillion in investment
- 19. Smart is the New Green
- 20. 20.93 14.11 16.65 13.75 9.09 15.26 10.21 Smart Infrastructure3 CAGR: 8.9% (2012-2020) Smart Cities To Create Huge Business Opportunities With A Market Value Of $1.5 Trillion By 2020 1 2 4 5 6 Smart Governance and Smart Education2 CAGR: 12.4% (2012-2020) Smart Energy CAGR: 19.6% (2012-2020) Smart Transportation CAGR: 14.8% (2012-2020) Smart Healthcare CAGR: 6.9% (2012-2020) Smart Building CAGR: 8.8% (2012-2020) 7 Smart City Market by Segments,1 Global, 2020 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Note: The graph represent the market share of each segment in the smart city market. For more information on smart city market sectors please refer to appendix Smart City Market 2Smart Education includes eLearning services for schools, universities, enterprises, and government entities 1These numbers represent the entire smart solutions eco-system in each segment for both urban and non-urban panoramas Smart Security CAGR: 14% (2012-2020) 3 3Other Smart Infrastructure such as sensor networks, digital management of water utilities not included in other segments 20
- 21. Social Trends
- 22. Global Population in 2025: Out of 2.72 Billion Gen Y Population , Around 52% from Asia Alone Around 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2025 2025 2011 6.99 Billion 8.01 Billion 0-14 years 15-34 years 35-64 years 65 years and above Source: Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations 2011; Frost & Sullivan, 2012 22
- 23. Economic Trends
- 24. Sub Trend : The Next Game Changers in 2025 High GDP growth, improved FDIs, and rapid industrialization to give rise to a new lot of emerging countries, beyond BRIC nations, that contend to become next decade’s economic leaders $2,327 Billion $1,041 Billion $2,441 Billion $653 Billion $772 Billion $323 Billion $483 Billion Mexico Egypt Turkey Poland Indonesia Thailand Vietnam Philippines Next Game Changers Note : The figure denotes GDP at market prices. Forecasts to 2025 have been extrapolated based on Nominal GDP growth rate projections Source: International Monetary Fund. Oxford Economics, Frost & Sullivan, $3,071 Billion $730 Billion Nigeria The trillion dollar economies 24
- 25. Health, Wellness and Wellbeing 25
- 26. Future of Health, Wellness and Wellbeing 26 Disease Management Clinical Diagnostics & Therapeutics Preventive Services Physical Exams Coaching Communication/ Information Services Consumer Products Medical Health Spas Complementary and Alternative Medicines Integrated Health Solutions Healthcare today Today’s world Healthy Vulnerable Affected Sick Education Future system Wellness Healthcare Wellness Healthcare Future healthcare Source: Frost & Sullivan
- 27. 27 HWW in Africa: $200 B Opportunity by 2020 Source: IFC, Frost & Sullivan analysis. Key Health, Wellness and Wellbeing Drivers, Africa, 2010-2020 Medical educaton, 9% Risk pooling, 13% Life Sciences (incl. Distribution), 28% Health services provision, 50% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 For profit, 60% Social enterprise, 23% NGO/ non profit, 17% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Breakdown of Private Healthcare Investment Opportunities, Africa Infrastructure Capital Expenditure $16 billion in medical devices investment across the continent Hospital Construction $80 billion in needed healthcare infrastructure Health system infrastructure Requirement to reach MDG – 58,000 additional facilities operating to reach target goals Breakdown of Healthcare Investment Opportunities, Africa
- 28. Conclusion
- 29. Macro Micro From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation Mega Trend Selected trends that impact your business and markets Sub Trend A sub-layer of trends that has a wide ranging impact Impact to Your Industry Visualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario- building and macro economic forecasts Impact on Future Product/ Technology Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs To 29
- 30. From Macro to Micro: Workshop Delivery Format 30 Mega Trends Technology Trends Market Trends • 100+ Markets • Physicists • Scientists • Theorists • Futurists etc.. • 100+ Markets • 3-7 Year Forecasts • Market Players • CI • Global Mega Trends • Regional Mega Trends • Best Practices • Innovation • Strategy Mega Trend Workshop Clients No other company combines the extensive analysis F&S does when analyzing trends, making our content reliable and cutting edge