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Global impacts of Climate Change
  and Potentials for Adaptation and
    Mitigation through Ecosystem
             Restoration
COP15, IUCN Side Event, Copenhagen, 2009


Dr. Camille Parmesan
Professor, Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, USA
Observed Changes in Wild Plants and Animals
     >1,700 Species Globally Parmesan & Yohe, Nature 2003

                     CHANGED AS PREDICTED
                            STABLE
                     OPPOSITE OF PREDICTION




                                   52% changing
                                   where they live
Ecological Responses Dominate -
     Evolution has not Affected Species’
        Fundamental Climate Niches
                                                                               Parmesan AREES 2006


Evidence for local, population-level evolution
  (Micro-evolution) - several !

No evidence for species-level evolution
 (Macro-evolution):
  • No evidence for new “super-hot-adapted” mutations
  • No evidence for any species living in new climate space
  • No response to artificial selection to tolerate more extreme
       climatic conditions than found in wild
            (fruit flies, butterflies)   (Hoffmann et al 2003, Crozier 2003 a,b; Jordano et al 2000)
Declines and Range Contractions of Sea
     Ice-Species in Arctic and Antarctic
                          2007
                          NOAA




                                                                                                   Ringed
                 Arctic                                                                             Seal

                                         2002-2007
                                         NOAA
Ice-dependent
penguins declining
by 70 - 95%


                                                                                                                        Adelie &
Ice-dependent                                                                                                           Emperor
penguins increasing or                                                                                                  penguins
smaller declines (<20%)                   Antarctic
                                 Smith et al. Bioscience 1999; Fraser et al. Polar Biol. 1992; Emslie et al. Ant. Science 1998
Mountaintop Species
• Many species have contracted
    upward
• First extinctions


                                     white
     golden                          lemuroid
     toad                            possum
     Costa Rica                      Australia


                                                  pika, USA
                                                  & Nepal
Apollo
Europe
& Nepal                     Parmesan AREES 2006
Climate Change Drove a Shift in Lands
    Deserving Highest Conservation Priority
E.e. quino - The only existing populations with historic
       densities are newly discovered sites further east and
       at higher elevations than historically-recorded distribution
                     (> 4500 ft, yellow circles)   Parmesan Nature 1996,
                                                       USFWS 2009
Problem: Species’ Forced Out of
        Traditional Homelands &
        Protected Areas
Solutions:
•   Assisted Colonization
•   Restoration to create habitat corridors
•Creation of new habitats adapted to
future climate
Impediments: Conservation laws & tools
    focus on return to historic state
                                 Hoegh-guldberg et al. Science 2008
Restoration of Vernal Pool habitats in southern
                  California
        USFWS, Recon Environmental Inc.




                                            Photos
                                           courtesy
                                             Mark
                                           Dodero,
                                            Project
                                          Manager &
                                              Sr
                                          Biologist
•Landscape topography molded (shallow depression
     created
• Appropriate soils brought in (build clay lens)
• Water storage, filtration & flow altered
YEAR 3


• Self-sustaining
• Occasional
  weeding needed
  to keep out
  exotics
• Habitat for 5
  endangered vernal
  pool species
• Cost: $ 1m/acre
Restoration of Native American Prairie
   - Help biodiversity adapt
   - Help mitigate climate change


                                                           Native bunchgrasses
                                                            Deep Root system
                                                            C-storage (by 52%)
                                                            Water storage
                                                            Resistance to drought
                                                               and heat waves
                                                            Nutritional value
                                                            Adapted to grazing
                                                            Only carbon-neutral crop


                                                                                               10 ft
                                                                                       Native
Franzluebbers 2005, Fargione et al. 2008, Poteet unpubl,                               Little bluestem
Full Carbon Budget Shows Prairie Carbon-Neutral
                        Conversion of Lands to Biofuel Production

Fargione et al. 2008 Science
                                                                    Emission of carbon
                                                                    from soil
                                                                    Loss of carbon
                                                                    above ground




                         Indonesia        Brazil                     USA

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Global Impacts of Climate Change and Potentials for Adaptation and Mitigation Through Ecosystem Restoration

  • 1. Global impacts of Climate Change and Potentials for Adaptation and Mitigation through Ecosystem Restoration COP15, IUCN Side Event, Copenhagen, 2009 Dr. Camille Parmesan Professor, Integrative Biology, University of Texas at Austin, USA
  • 2. Observed Changes in Wild Plants and Animals >1,700 Species Globally Parmesan & Yohe, Nature 2003 CHANGED AS PREDICTED STABLE OPPOSITE OF PREDICTION 52% changing where they live
  • 3. Ecological Responses Dominate - Evolution has not Affected Species’ Fundamental Climate Niches Parmesan AREES 2006 Evidence for local, population-level evolution (Micro-evolution) - several ! No evidence for species-level evolution (Macro-evolution): • No evidence for new “super-hot-adapted” mutations • No evidence for any species living in new climate space • No response to artificial selection to tolerate more extreme climatic conditions than found in wild (fruit flies, butterflies) (Hoffmann et al 2003, Crozier 2003 a,b; Jordano et al 2000)
  • 4. Declines and Range Contractions of Sea Ice-Species in Arctic and Antarctic 2007 NOAA Ringed Arctic Seal 2002-2007 NOAA Ice-dependent penguins declining by 70 - 95% Adelie & Ice-dependent Emperor penguins increasing or penguins smaller declines (<20%) Antarctic Smith et al. Bioscience 1999; Fraser et al. Polar Biol. 1992; Emslie et al. Ant. Science 1998
  • 5. Mountaintop Species • Many species have contracted upward • First extinctions white golden lemuroid toad possum Costa Rica Australia pika, USA & Nepal Apollo Europe & Nepal Parmesan AREES 2006
  • 6. Climate Change Drove a Shift in Lands Deserving Highest Conservation Priority E.e. quino - The only existing populations with historic densities are newly discovered sites further east and at higher elevations than historically-recorded distribution (> 4500 ft, yellow circles) Parmesan Nature 1996, USFWS 2009
  • 7. Problem: Species’ Forced Out of Traditional Homelands & Protected Areas Solutions: • Assisted Colonization • Restoration to create habitat corridors •Creation of new habitats adapted to future climate Impediments: Conservation laws & tools focus on return to historic state Hoegh-guldberg et al. Science 2008
  • 8. Restoration of Vernal Pool habitats in southern California USFWS, Recon Environmental Inc. Photos courtesy Mark Dodero, Project Manager & Sr Biologist
  • 9. •Landscape topography molded (shallow depression created • Appropriate soils brought in (build clay lens) • Water storage, filtration & flow altered
  • 10. YEAR 3 • Self-sustaining • Occasional weeding needed to keep out exotics • Habitat for 5 endangered vernal pool species • Cost: $ 1m/acre
  • 11. Restoration of Native American Prairie - Help biodiversity adapt - Help mitigate climate change Native bunchgrasses Deep Root system C-storage (by 52%) Water storage Resistance to drought and heat waves Nutritional value Adapted to grazing Only carbon-neutral crop 10 ft Native Franzluebbers 2005, Fargione et al. 2008, Poteet unpubl, Little bluestem
  • 12. Full Carbon Budget Shows Prairie Carbon-Neutral Conversion of Lands to Biofuel Production Fargione et al. 2008 Science Emission of carbon from soil Loss of carbon above ground Indonesia Brazil USA