Grinberg_Masters_Paper_FINAL

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The Graduate Programs in Sustainable International Development
The Heller School for Social Policy and Management
Brandeis University
Resilience amidst a changing climate:
A case study of urban adaptation in Hoi An, Vietnam.
Submitted by
Alyssa Grinberg
A paper submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
Master of Arts Degree
in
Sustainable International Development
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. ABSTRACT
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
3. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
4. ABBREVIATIONS
5. INTRODUCTION
5.1. The Development Question and Forthcoming Argument
6. BACKGROUND AND DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT
6.1. Global Climate Change
6.2. Cities and Climate Change
6.3. Urbanization in Vietnam
6.4. Climate Change Trends in Vietnam
6.5. Institutional Framework: National Policies and Action Plans
6.6. UN-HABITAT’s Cities and Climate Change Initiative
7. METHODS
7.1. The Case Study
8. LITERATURE REVIEW
8.1. Causes of Climate Change
8.2. Delayed Action
8.3. Urban Climate Change Adaptation
8.4. Urban Resilience
8.5. Vulnerabilities
8.6. Learning and Knowledge Sharing
9. CASE STUDY BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT
9.1. The City of Hoi An
9.2. Natural
Hazards
in
Hoi
An
Exacerbated
by
Climate
Change
9.2.1. Temperature
9.2.2. Sea-level Rise and Salt-water Intrusion
9.2.3. Storms and Typhoons
9.2.4. Erosion
9.2.5. Precipitation Patterns and Floods
9.3. Development Influences on Urban Resilience
9.4. Adaptation Approaches in Hoi An
10. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND
RESILIENCE RESPONSIVENESS
10.1. Affective Governance, Participatory Planning, and Capacity Building
10.2. A More Holistic Understanding of the Value of Ecosystem Services
11. CONCLUSION
12. APPENDICES
Appendix 1: Climate Change Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Regions, Sectors, and
Communities of Vietnam
Appendix 2: UN-HABITAT’s Vulnerability Assessment Methodology in Hoi An
Appendix 3: Map of Hoi An
Appendix 4: Assessment of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptation
Appendix 5: Flood Forecasting Scenarios of Hoi An to 2020.

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Appendix 6: Assessing the Adaptive Capacity of Hoi An to Natural Disasters
Appendix 7: Drainage Capacity of Each Commune in Hoi An
13. REFERENCES

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1. ABSTRACT
This study analyzes climate change impacts in the Vietnamese coastal city of Hoi An and the
role that development plays in strengthening or impeding the resilience and adaptive capacity of
the city and it’s inhabitants. In the 21st
century, rapid urbanization and climate change trends
pose pressure on cities in developing countries and threaten poverty reduction and sustainable
development objectives, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Vietnam is
expected to be one of the top five countries most impacted by climate change, in part due to its
long coastline. Findings suggest that Hoi An has high adaptive capacity to flooding and storms
and great weaknesses in its ability to cope with rising sea levels and salt-water intrusion. Cities
must employ a diverse array of mechanisms including infrastructure development, capacity
building, and incentives for stewardship of ecosystem services in order to build the city’s
resilience to climate change. The city is working to become an eco-city, yet its resilience is
stunted by a weakness and mismanagement of key systems and spatial development that is
increasing pressures on the natural environment.

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2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Climate change is one of the most significant challenges of the twenty first century and the
impacts will likely add to and exacerbate present shocks and stresses — placing increased
pressure on people’s livelihoods, health and wellbeing. Climate change refers to any long-term
significant change in the earth’s climate, such as shifts in temperature, precipitation, and wind
patterns. More severe and frequent storms, rain, floods, and drought; increased temperature and
acidification of the oceans; sea-level rise and increased air temperature are all the results of
climate change. Natural disasters have been occurring long before any observed changes in our
climate, but global warming is expected to exacerbate these hazards causing increased frequency
and intensity of extreme weather events and natural disasters.
With dense populations and frequently unplanned spatial development, cities in developing
countries are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, especially those along
low-lying coastal areas. The high concentration of people in coastal areas creates many economic
and social benefits, but the combined effects of population growth, structural and spatial
constraints, and climate change present many challenges to cities, their populations, livelihoods,
and the environment. Climate change poses threats to industries, socio-economic systems,
poverty and inequality reduction, hunger eradication, sustainable development, and the
achievement of the millennium development goals. Infrastructure such as roads; water
production, storage, and drainage; waste management; electricity generation and distribution;
and schools and hospitals providing basic services for urban populations, are susceptible to
climate change stressors. In other words, the impacts of global warming will induce shocks to the
city’s and region’s economy, create pressure on natural resources, threaten ecoystems and flood
buffers that are already compromised by encrouching urban development. These impacts will
also increase health and safety risks, particularly among the urban poor living in informal
housing settlements in risk-prone areas (Reed et al, 2013). It is imperative that governments,
civil society and the private sector support the development of climate resilient cities with strong
capacities to adapt to natural hazards.
Cities across the globe will not all be impacted equally by climate change, nor will sectors of the
population. People and other species will experience the impacts of climate change differently
based on their ability to adapt and absorb the imposed shocks. Climate change is expected to
exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. Those who are already in a weak position will suffer the
greatest from climate change. Generally, the poor, women, children, the disabled, minority ethnic
groups, and the elderly are considered to be most vulnerable and will therefore be
disproportionately affected by the effects of global warming.
Based on its typography with a long coastline of 3,500 km, Vietnam is particularly
susceptible to the adverse effects of climate change including floods, sea-level rise,
extreme rainfall, typhoons, droughts, salt-water intrusion, landslides, fires and the
infrequent earthquakes. Climate change threatens to reduce or hinder the development
progress that Vietnam has made over the past two decades in regards to poverty reduction
and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).
This paper will explore the relationship between development and climate change impacts in
urban areas that seek to build resilience to global warming. This investigation will take place in

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the form of a case study set in Hoi An, Vietnam and the study will address the following
development questions: 1) What are the climate change threats in Hoi An, 2) What measures are
the city and its inhabitants taking in order to cope with the impacts of climate change, 3) How is
the development path of Hoi An hindering and strengthening urban climate change resilience, 4)
How can Hoi An more effectively progress and manage its development in order to best address
climate change shocks and stressors, and 5) What can be learned from the experience in Hoi An
that can be applied to other cities? Hoi An, in Quang Nam Province, is a particularly interesting
city to analyze in this context since it faces many climate change stressors which are further
exacerbated by poor city development and management, yet it is also striving to alleviate these
challenges through its eco-city development strategy.
Situated in the coastal and estuary plain of Quang Nam Province in the Thu Bon River basin, the
city is characterized by a low-lying and unstable topologic foundation which has created islands
and a coastal and estuary wetland ecosystem. Given its geography and typography, Hoi An is
particularly susceptible to climate change impacts. Extreme climatic events such as storms,
floods, droughts, and tornadoes are expected to increase in frequency and intensity (Smyle &
Cooke, n.d., p 90). Increasing salt-water intrusion, sedimentation of river and coastal estuaries,
and coastal and riverbank erosion due to such storms and floods are other key indicators of
climate change in Hoi An. The magnitude and impacts of these hazards are not solely determined
by a changing climate; they are also influenced by human spatial development and the
management of critical systems in the city. This can be illustrated through the hazard of flooding
in Hoi An which is made worse by water discharge from the Tranh River hydroelectric dam,
deforestation in the mountains of Quang Nam Province, and changes in land use. Though Hoi An
can not significantly mitigate global climate change, the city can strengthen its resilience by
improving basic services, more effectively conserving the environment, and taking a more
holistic approach to spatial development.
As alluded to above, the resilience of the city relies on well functioning interconnected urban
systems, as vulnerable systems are more likely to be threatened by climate change impacts, and
lower the adaptive capacity of the city. A resilient city is prepared for current and future climate
risks, thereby limiting the severity and scale of impacts. Once a climate hazard strikes, a resilient
city is able to respond quickly, efficiently, equitably, and fairly. Increasing resilience in cities
involves pursuing poverty reduction and basic sustainable development goals, as well as building
strong institutional networks, high functioning systems, and social relationships that can serve as
safety nets for vulnerable populations.
In Hoi An, there are a number of different coping mechanisms employed by its inhabitants to
deal with the threats of natural disasters and climate change, yet the city’s resilience is stunted by
a lack of adequate infrastructure and systems, mismanagement of these key systems, and poor
spatial development that is increasing pressures on the natural environment. To build its
resilience, Hoi An must invest in capacity building; evidence-based spatial development;
incentives for stewardship of ecosystem services; and improvement of critical systems involved
in the management of water, drainage, waste, energy, and transportation. Particular examples
include protecting and replanting water coconut forests and pine forests along the coast and
marshland to guard against sea level rise, storm surges, and erosion. The management of the
hydroelectric dam in the province could also be improved in order to lower the incidence of flash

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flooding as well as salt-water intrusion. Currently there seems to be a disconnect among
governing authorities about the relationship between development and climate change impacts.
The capacity of these officials must be strengthened so that they can work to create a more
climate resilient city. This can be accomplished in part by integrating and mainstreaming climate
change into the overall city plans and by involving diverse stakeholders from the community and
the private sector in the planning process. The diversification among stakeholders can provide
new insights, which can in turn better equip the city and its inhabitants to cope with climate
change and natural disasters.
Climate change is a long-term challenge, but it is one that requires immediate response given the
pace and scale in which greenhouse gases are accumulating in the earth’s atmosphere. As centers
of economic, political, and cultural activity, cities must play an important role in designing and
implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation actions. Based on their high density and
economies of scale, cities are well positioned to address climate change causes and impacts, but
to do so will require coordination and the inclusion of those who are most vulnerable. Managing
climate change threats is critical to achieving poverty reduction and sustainable development
objectives, including the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Failure to take strong global
action will hinder future development, where as collective action to mitigate the causes and adapt
to the impacts of climate change will bring positive economic, environmental and social results.

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3. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
First and foremost I would like to thank my advisor Barry Shelley for his continued and
enthusiastic support from my very first class at Brandeis University in 2010 through the
completion of my masters program. I am incredibly grateful for his guidance, encouragement,
and technical expertise. Brandeis University faculty and staff have been instrumental in my
personal and academic growth and I am indebted to the University for the opportunity to enroll
in the degree program. I am thankful to the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-
HABITAT) for the opportunity to work with them as part of my practicum, in particular
Bernhard Barth who lay the foundation for this opportunity and served as my direct supervisor.
Nguy Ha and Vũ Minh Hằng at UN-HABITAT Vietnam also deserve much recognition for their
dedication and passion; I could not have done the work without them. Thanks to the eighteen
individuals in Hoi An who offered their time to answer our questions in the making of the film
“Flood Lines – Urban Adaptation to Climate Change in Hoi An, Vietnam,” especially to Hans
van der Broek. I am indebted to Ambika Chawla for her friendship and advisement; my work
was greatly improved as a result of her guidance and support. Finally, I owe great thanks to my
family and to Anthony Klauzinski for their continued love and support during this endeavor.
You have helped me to realize my dreams.

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4. ABBREVIATIONS
ADB Asian Development Bank
CCCI Cities and Climate Change Initiative
CCWG Climate Change Working Group in Vietnam
CDM Clean Development Mechanism
Co2 Carbon dioxide
DRR Disaster Risk Reduction
EA Executing Agency
EU European Union
GDP Gross Domestic Product
GHG Greenhouse Gas
IA Implementing Agency
ICD International Cooperation Department
IIED International Institute for Environment and Development
IMHEN Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
M-BRACE Mekong-Building Climate Resilient Asian Cities
MDG Millennium Development Goals
MOIT Ministry of Industry and Trade
MoNRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment
NCCC National Committee of Climate Change
NTP National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change
PES Payment for Environmental Services
SES Social-Ecological System
SUD-Net Sustainable Urban Development Network
UCRPF Urban Climate Resilient Planning Framework
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
UNFCCC UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
UN-HABITAT United Nations Human Settlements Programme
USD United States Dollar
UCRPF The Urban Climate Resilient Planning Framework
VAA Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
VGGS The Vietnam Green Growth Strategy
VND Vietnam Dong

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5. INTRODUCTION
Climate change is one of the most significant challenges of the twenty first century, and its
implications for development are substantial. Climate change can be illustrated through more
severe and frequent storms, rain, and drought; increased temperature and acidification of the
oceans; sea-level rise; and increased air temperature. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC) defines climate change as: “Any change in climate over time, whether due to
natural variability or as a result of human activity” (2013). This definition encompasses both
anthropogenic changes and natural variability though there is scientific consensus that the
majority of climate change is human caused. Managing climate change threats is critical to
achieving poverty reduction and sustainable development objectives, including the Millennium
Development Goals (MDGs).
Climate change will have great impacts on people’s livelihoods and their wellbeing. Increasing
temperatures, variable rainfall, and stronger storms all have the potential to reduce agricultural
productivity. Disruptions in agricultural production can consequently drive the price of food up
and contribute to food insecurity. The warming oceans and increased acidification are negatively
impacting the fisheries. Increased flooding and drought, as well as the potential for salt-water
intrusion, threaten human health as it will compromise access to clean drinking water and
sanitation. Water scarcity also has the potential to instigate conflicts among those vying for this
essential resource.
People and other species will experience the impacts of climate change differently based on their
ability to adapt and absorb the imposed shocks. Climate change is expected to exacerbate
existing vulnerabilities. Those who are already in a weak position will suffer the greatest from
climate change. Women, children, the elderly, the disabled, and the poor are considered to be the
most vulnerable to the impacts of global warming. The United States Agency for International
Development (USAID) (2012, p. 3) highlights this point in the following statement:
The poor in developing countries will likely be the first and hardest hit by climate change
impacts because they are heavily dependent on climate-sensitive economic activity such
as agriculture, fisheries, forestry, and tourism and lack the capacity to cope with
economic and environmental shocks.
The negative consequences of climate change will be particularly severe in low-lying coastal
areas where much of the world’s population resides. As centers of economic, political, and
cultural activity, cities must play an important role in designing and implementing climate
change adaptation and mitigation actions. Failure to take strong global action to decrease the
causes of climate change will hinder future development, where as collective action to drive
sustainable growth will have positive economic, environmental and social impacts.
A unified global response is required for both mitigation of the human contributors to global
warming as well as adaptation to the impacts now and in the future. Unfortunately, international
cooperation so far has not risen to the level needed to adequately address the root causes of
global warming and sufficiently support adaptation needs. While mitigation, by its very nature,
must be cross-border, each country must prepare for the stresses of a changing climate. Every
country has an obligation to mitigate the causes of climate change, though the industrialized

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countries that are primarily responsible for this global challenge should bear the greatest burden.
Global action to mitigate climate change is dismal as countries continue to emit greenhouse
gases (GHGs) into the earth’s atmosphere at an alarming rate. Consequently adaptation measures
must be implemented in order to respond to a changing climate and build more sustainable cities.
Based on its typography with a long coastline of 3,500 km, Vietnam is particularly susceptible to
the adverse effects of climate change including floods, sea-level rise, extreme rainfall, typhoons,
droughts, salt-water intrusion, landslides, fires and the infrequent earthquakes. The Ministry of
Environment (MONRE) in Vietnam states:
Impacts of climate change, in particular sea level rise, will heavily affect the
country's economic production, livelihood, environment, infrastructure, public
health, and threaten the achievements of poverty reduction, food and energy
security, sustainable development, as well as the fulfillment of the Millennium
Development Goals (2010, p 12).
Given the country’s high vulnerability, Vietnam must make concerted efforts to build its
resilience. Hoi An, in Quang Nam Province of Vietnam, is a particularly interesting city
to analyze in this context since it faces many climate change stressors which are further
exacerbated by poor city development and management. The city faces climate change
threats in the form of sea-level rise and increased severity and frequency of storms, which
lead to increased floods, salt-water intrusion, and erosion. The inhabitants employ a
number of different coping mechanisms to deal with the threats of natural disasters and
climate change. Yet the city’s resilience is stunted by inadequate infrastructure and
systems, mismanagement of these key systems, and poor spatial development that is
increasing pressures on the natural environment. Hoi An must employ a diverse array of
mechanisms including infrastructure development, capacity building, and incentives for
stewardship of ecosystem services, in order to build the city’s resilience to climate
change. It is striving to alleviate these challenges through it’s eco-city development
strategy, though there is still much work to be done.
5.1. The Development Question and Forthcoming Argument
The purpose of this paper is to explore the relationship between development and climate change
impacts in urban areas that seek to build resilience to global warming. This investigation will
take place in the form of a case study set in Hoi An, Vietnam. The study will address the
following development questions:
o What are the climate change threats in Hoi An?
o What measures are the city and its inhabitants taking in order to cope with the
impacts of climate change?
o How is the development path of Hoi An hindering and strengthening urban
climate change resilience?
o How can Hoi An more effectively progress and manage its development in order
to best address climate change shocks and stressors?
o What can be learned from the experience in Hoi An that can be applied to other
cities?

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The investigation of this case study took place during a seven-month practicum with the United
Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT) in Vietnam and Cambodia. Three
months were spent in Hanoi, Vietnam with a two week mission trip in Hoi An in which my
colleague and I shot video footage for a short documentary about Hoi An’s ability to cope with
natural disasters, specifically flooding, which are exacerbated by climate change and
development. The findings are based on previous work in Hoi An conducted by UN-HABITAT
as well as the information gathered during the production of the short film. Like the film, this
case study will focus especially on the particular hazard of flooding.
The text of the paper is divided into seven parts beginning with this introduction to the topic. The
second section (Section 6) provides a background to the key issues related to cities and climate
change and urban climate change resilience. This section will also provide useful information on
global climate change trends; managing climate change through adaptive capacity and resilience
building; Vietnam’s urbanization patterns, climate change trends, and institutional framework;
and UN-HABITAT’s Cities and Climate Change Initiative, also known as CCCI. The
methodology is given in Section 7, which describes how the literature was reviewed, various
individuals were consulted, and a short documentary film was produced. Section 8 contains the
literature review, which explores the principle writers on the topics of urban climate change
adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability. The discussion of my findings for the case study set in
Hoi An are outlined in Section 9. I investigate the various climate change impacts that threaten
Hoi An, with a particular focus on flooding, and the measures that the city and its inhabitants are
taking to adapt to a changing climate. I also analyze the development that is hindering and
helping the city’s ability to cope with a changing climate. Recommendations for adaptation
responsiveness and resilience are outlined in Section 10, with considerations and potential
solutions to the issues raised in the case study and more generally the topic of urban climate
change resilience. In the last section, I conclude with some final remarks summarizing the
findings of the paper.
6. BACKGROUND AND DEVELOPMENT CONTEXT
6.1. Global Climate Change
Climate change refers to any long-term significant change in the earth’s climate, such as shifts in
temperature, precipitation, and wind patterns. Global air and sea temperatures are rising, oceans
are becoming more acidic, snow and ice are diminishing, global mean sea levels are rising, and
changes are occurring in the global water cycle. Climate change is causing increased floods,
droughts, intense rain and more severe heat waves. The science overwhelmingly supports these
findings: according to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, the combined global average land and
ocean surface temperature rose by about 0.85ºC from the period of 1880 to 2012 (IPCC, 2013, p.
3). Scientists predict that by 2100 the average temperature will increase by more than 1.5ºC in all
but one predicted scenario and that sea level will rise by up to approximately one meter (IPCC,
2013). It is important to note that natural disasters have been occurring long before any observed
changes in our climate, but global warming is expected to exacerbate these hazards causing
increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and natural disasters.

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The climatic shifts are primarily caused by the release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the
earth’s atmosphere. The IPCC reports: “The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide,
methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels unprecedented in at least the last 800,000
years. Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations have increased by 40% since pre-industrial times,
primarily from fossil fuel emissions and secondarily from net land use change emissions” (2013,
p. 11). Once emitted, GHGs can remain in the atmosphere for thousands of years.
The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report identifies human influence as the leading cause of observed
warming since the mid-20th
century (2013, p. 17). Historically industrialized countries are
principally responsible for the majority of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere. UN
Secretary General Ban Ki-moon articulated this sentiment at the Doha 2012 UN Climate Change
Conference: “The climate change phenomenon has been caused by the industrialisation of the
developed world. It's only fair and reasonable that the developed world should bear most of the
responsibility" (Associated Press, 2012). Though industrialized nations are predominantly
accountable for the current levels of C02 in the earth’s atmosphere, the paradigm is shifting as
countries like China and India experience rapid growth and consequently increase their CO2
output. These two countries, along with the United States, Russia, Japan and Germany are
currently the biggest national emitters. Over the next three decades, however, it is predicted that
more than 90% of projected growth from energy demand will come from developing countries
(USAID, 2012, p. 4). Regardless of who remains primarily responsible for the levels of C02 in
the earth’s atmosphere, all countries will experience the impacts of a changing climate.
Climate change can be addressed through mitigation and adaptation measures. Mitigation refers
to the efforts adopted to lower the amount of greenhouse gases in the earth’s atmosphere.
Examples include decreasing deforestation, employing renewable energy, and lowering the
amount of consumption. Adaptation, on the other hand, involves the ability to adjust to climate
change threats through the avoidance or minimization of damages, the management of the
consequences, and through the capacity to seize opportunities. According to the IPCC,
adaptation is defined as:
Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected
climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits
beneficial opportunities. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished,
including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public
adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation (2001).
Adaptive capacity as related to climate change is defined by the IPCC as “the ability or potential
of a system to respond successfully to climate variability and change, and includes adjustments
in both behavior and in resources and technologies” (IPCC, 2001).
In order to address climate change in a development context we must also understand the
concept of vulnerability:
Vulnerability is a set of conditions and processes resulting from physical,
social, economic, and environmental factors, which increase the likelihood
that a community will be negatively affected by a climate hazard or change. It is a
combination of exposure to climatic conditions, how sensitive the community is

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to those conditions, and the capacity to adapt to those changes (IPCC, 2001).
Adaptive capacity and vulnerability are influenced by a number of varying factors including:
physical location, land access and quality, financial resources, knowledge, technology, decision-
making potential, power, education, healthcare, and food. People who have more assets are less
vulnerable and have a better chance of successfully adapting to the negative consequences of
climate change.
Given all of the variables, it is important to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of
urban systems, including infrastructure and the economic, cultural, social and natural
environment. In order to best cope with the stressors of climate change, communities must
strengthen their adaptive capacity and their resilience, particularly among those who are most
vulnerable. Resilience can be defined as: “the ability of a community to resist, absorb, and
recover from the effects of hazards in a timely and efficient manner, preserving or restoring its
essential basic structures, functions and identity” (CARE International Vietnam, 2009, p 13).
There are strong linkages between resilience and adaptive capacity and both vary widely among
different groups within a community. A resilient community is well positioned to manage
hazards and/or recover quickly from their negative effects, which will result in a similar or
improved state as compared to before the hazard occurred. A hazard can be defined as follows:
A dangerous phenomenon, substance, human activity or condition that
may cause loss of life, injury or other health impacts, property damage,
loss of livelihoods and services, social and economic disruption, or
environmental damage (CARE International Vietnam, 2009, p 13).
For the purpose of this case study, a hazard refers to any rapid onset shocks such as floods and
storms, as well as slow onset changes such as salt-water intrusion. It is also important to
distinguish between a hazard and the effects of a hazard. For instance, a flood may be
characterized as a hazard but the effects of the hazard may include a lack of clean drinking water,
poor sanitation, damage to buildings, etc.
6.2. Cities and Climate Change
For the first time ever, more than 50% of the world’s population live in urban areas. The massive
urbanization trend of developing countries is also a defining characteristic in the 21st
century.
Approximately 90% of global urban growth is taking place in developing countries and between
the years of 2000 and 2030 developing countries are expected to triple their built-up areas
(World Bank, 2011a). This urban population growth and physical expansion presents challenges
but also great opportunities to plan, develop, and manage cities that are economically, socially
and environmentally sustainable.
Urban areas generate economic opportunity and play a key role in social development, decision-
making, innovation, and the political process. Cities are also large greenhouse gas emitters but
have the potential to lower their environmental impact through green growth development
encompassing energy smart interventions and proper management of natural resources. Cities

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are the drivers of global change. However, the process of urbanization also presents challenges
such as congestion; environmental degradation; pollution of air, land, and water; increased
poverty and inequality; rising land and housing costs; crime; unemployment; and disease. In low
and middle-income countries much of the physical and economic growth is occurring outside of
formal plans, rules, or regulations and this unplanned urban development can exacerbate urban
issues (Satterthwaite et all, 2007). Vulnerabilities are further increased and environmental services
destroyed by economic activity and development that encroaches on floodplains, coastal
swamps, drainage channels, and other natural buffers (The World Bank, 2009b, p 46).
With dense populations and buildings, cities are particularly vulnerable to climate change. As
hubs of large-scale economic and social systems, extreme climatic events such as floods, storms
or landslides pose great risks to urban areas. These climate change impacts will likely add to and
exacerbate present shocks and stresses — placing increased pressure on people’s livelihoods,
health and wellbeing. Climate change poses threats to industries, socio-economic systems,
poverty and inequality reduction, hunger eradication, sustainable development, and the
achievement of the millennium development goals. Climate change will impact infrastructure
which provides basic services including roads; water production, storage, and drainage; waste
management; transmission lines; and schools and hospitals. As such, it is imperative that
governments, civil society and the private sector support the development of climate resilient
cities in which capacities to adapt to natural hazards are strengthened.
Cities across the globe will not all be impacted equally by climate change, nor will sectors of the
population. Generally, the poor, women, children, the disabled, minority ethnic groups, and the
elderly will be disproportionately affected by the impacts of global warming. People living in
low-lying coastal areas are also particularly susceptible to the threats of global warming. In 2003
about half of the world’s population lived within 200 kilometers of a coastline (Creel, 2013).
Worldwide, two-thirds of all cities with a population of 5 million or more are located in coastal
areas with an elevation of less than 10 meters, also defined as a low-lying area (McGranahan et
al., 2007). The high concentration of people in coastal areas creates many economic and social
benefits, but the combined effects of population growth, structural and spatial constraints, and
climate change present many challenges to cities, their populations, livelihoods, and the
environment. Millions of people within coastal areas are expected to be displaced as a result of
typhoons, rising sea level, and flooding. People will leave urban coastal areas in search of more
stable habitable places, as their livelihoods will also be affected by climate change.
6.3. Urbanization In Vietnam
Vietnam is a densely populated country in South East Asia with a long coastline of 3,500 km.
Populations and economic activities are concentrated along the coastline and in low-lying deltas
and in absolute terms the greatest number of poor people live in coastal areas (CARE
International Vietnam, 2009). Nearly half of the coastal zone is low lying, meaning it’s less than
ten meters above sea level. Over the past twenty years Vietnam has experienced rapid
urbanization and economic growth. According to the General Statistics Office, the urban
population in 2010 was 25.5 million as compared to 12 million in 1986 (Birkmann et all, 2010).
Nationally, the urban population accounts for 30% of the country — a relatively low number

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compared to the 2010 average of 43% in the Asia Pacific region. It is estimated that one million
urban residents are added each year and by 2020 an estimated 40% of the country’s population
will live in urban areas (World Bank, 2009c).
Vietnam’s development and urbanization trends are largely attributable to the Doi Moi reforms
of 1986. Under these reforms, the Vietnamese economy integrated into the regional and world
marketplace. The policies set forth encouraged private sector initiatives and market
liberalization. The economy has transitioned from one of central planning to a decentralized
transitional economy where allocations of resources are determined by a combination of the
market and central state control. Throughout, the government has still put into place policies to
ensure the even distribution of economic growth and development. “The new Socioeconomic
Development Strategy continues to promote industrialization and modernization, fast and
sustainable development; equitable social progress; while targeting an industrial future with
socialist orientation. The Strategy is orientated towards development, innovation, growth and
restructuring of the economy” (World Bank, 2011b, p 7). The trend towards marketization and
decentralization have brought about significant achievements in terms of foreign direct
investment and private development in the nation’s economy, GDP, macroeconomic
stabilization, expanded exports, poverty reduction, and increased access to services.
The introduction of market mechanisms under Doi Moi have led to spatial and social
transformations in the cities as well (Quang & Kammeier, 2002). In 1990 there were only about
500 urban areas nationally; by 2003 it had reached 656 (UN-HABITAT, 2010). Seventy percent
of the country’s total economic output comes from Vietnam’s cities and towns (Coulthart et al.,
2006). Most foreign direct investment goes towards urban areas, which is one of the driving
factors of rural to urban migration. Urbanization is in turn fueling even more economic growth.
An estimated 60-80% of Vietnam’s urban growth is considered to be informal, however,
resulting in a lack of appropriate infrastructure and services in fringe areas and the proliferation
of inadequate housing (slum settlements) (World Bank, 2007).
Since Vietnam was designated a middle-income country in the year 2010, the country has
entered a new development and economic phase. The nation is on the path to receive the
“industrialized nation” status by the year 2020 (UN-HABITAT, 2012a). No country has
experienced high economic status without first going through the process of urbanization.
Urbanization is helping to create opportunities to pull people out of poverty. The success of
Vietnam’s progress does not solely rely on urban areas, however, but the process of urbanization
will play a key role in its development.
6.4. Climate Change Trends in Vietnam
Based on its location and typography, Vietnam is considered to be one of the countries to be
most affected by climate change. More than 100 urban areas of Vietnam will be directly
impacted and the poor are the most vulnerable – specialists said in the National Conference of
ACCCRN, Vietnam Component, held in June 29th
, 2010 in Hanoi. Climate change threatens to
reduce or hinder the development progress that Vietnam has made over the past two decades in
regards to poverty reduction and the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals

16
(MDGs). If no protective measures are taken it is predicted that there will be a capital loss every
year of up to USD $17 billion dollars, amounting to approximately 80% of the country’s annual
GDP (World Bank, 2009a).
The country is prone to disasters, including typhoons, tropical storms, floods, droughts,
landslides, salt-water intrusion, and forest fires (The International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development, 2009). Appendix 1 outlines the climate change impacts on regions, sectors, and
communities in Vietnam. Climate change and the rising sea level will cause erosion, salinization
and flooding by high tides in the coastal communes and districts. Coastal erosion in particular is
a constant threat to Vietnam and its severity is increasing as a consequence of storms and rising
sea levels caused by climate change, as well as misguided development. The particular hazards
in each location vary depending on the geography, population, infrastructure, and adaptive
capacity among other variables. But regardless of the variations, climate change will pose
serious challenges for the urban population across Vietnam.
6.5. Institutional Frameworks: National Policies and Action Plans
In 1992 and 1994 Vietnam signed and ratified respectively the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and in 2002 the country ratified the Kyoto Protocol.
As a signatory of the Kyoto Protocol, Vietnam has set-up national structures in order to deal with
climate change, broadly divided into two groups: 1) adaptation to climate change effects, and 2)
mitigation of GHG emissions. Adaptation strategies in Vietnam are classified into three
categories: 1) full protection, 2) adaptation, and 3) withdrawal (MONRE, 2010).
The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment (MONRE) has been assigned as the
central agency to coordinate with other ministries in the creation of a national program
addressing climate change. With the support of the International Cooperation Department (ICD),
MONRE will also serve as the national focal point to take part in the UNFCC, Kyoto Protocol,
and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in Vietnam. MONRE has appointed the Institute of
Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN) to take charge on creating the framework
for the program. In July of 2007 MONRE also established the National Committee of Climate
Change (NCCC) in order to assist the Prime Minister to manage and coordinate activities related
to the implementation of the UNFCC, Kyoto Protocol, and CDM.
In 2008 the Prime Minister approved the National Target Programme in Responding to Climate
Change (NTP). The objectives of the NTP are to assess climate change impacts on sectors and
regions and to develop feasible action plans to effectively respond to climate change in the short
and long term in line with the countries sustainable development platform. Low carbon economic
development as well as global efforts to mitigate climate change serve as two main features of
this strategy. The NTP requires two trillion VND (approximately USD $121.2 million) from
2009 to 2015 to assess climate change impacts, create effective response plans, and strengthen
capacity for adaptation. However, thus far the budget does not include sufficient funds for the
activities of the NTP.
The program is planned for implementation over five years, starting from January 1st
2009, with

17
a close partnership with MONRE and the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MOIT). Similar to the
general national structures the program has two components: climate change adaptation and
climate change mitigation. The climate change adaptation component will support the
implementation of the NTP both overall at the national level and specifically in the two climate
vulnerable provinces of Ben Tre and Quang Nam.
6.6. UN-HABITAT and the Cities and Climate Change Initiative
Besides the national frameworks, there are many other institutions working on climate change
issues in Vietnam, such as the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT).
As the agency for human settlements, it is mandated by the UN General Assembly to promote
socially and environmentally sustainable towns and cities with the goal of providing adequate
shelter for all. UN-HABITAT aims to help governments and other partners to meet the
Millennium Development’s Goal of improving the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers by
the year 2020 (UN-HABITAT, n.d.). According to their website, UN-HABITAT also provides
“technical assistance to countries and cities in the areas of urban governance, housing,
environmental management, disaster mitigation, post-conflict rehabilitation, urban safety, water
management and poverty reduction” (UN-HABITAT, n.d.).
Through its Sustainable Urban Development Network (SUD-Net): Cities and Climate Change
Initiative (CCCI), UN-HABITAT is mobilizing local, national, regional and global partnerships
in support of local governments to more readily respond to climatic threats and to take action to
reduce the cities’ carbon footprint. UN-HABITAT has been working on climate change, through
CCCI in the Asia-Pacific region since 2008, and in Cambodia and Vietnam since December
2010.
Cities and local authorities have the potential to influence the causes of climate change and find
solutions to its effects. The Cities and Climate Change Initiative, a key component of UN-
HABITAT’s SUD-Net, promotes enhanced climate change mitigation and adaptation in
developing country cities. More specifically, CCCI supports the development of pro-poor
approaches to climate change policies and strategies. This Initiative builds on UN-HABITAT’s
rich experience in well-recognized capacity building tools and sustainable urban development
(through the Environmental Planning and Management approach of the Sustainable Cities
Programme and the Localizing Agenda 21 Programme). The Initiative develops, adapts and
disseminates the methodologies that put city managers and practitioners in a better position to
cope with climate change.
CCCI also promotes collaboration by local authorities and their associations in global, regional
and national networks. The triple rationale is (1) to enhance policy dialogue so that climate
change is firmly established on the agenda; (2) to support local authorities’ efforts to bring about
these changes; and (3) to enhance awareness, education and capacity-building in support of
climate change strategies. A major outcome of the initiative is the development of a set of tools
for mitigation and adaptation. CCCI has also recently invested in communication through the
creation of several films highlighting the program and projects falling within the Initiative.

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7. METHODS
7.1. The Case Study
The case study is based on work that was conducted during a seven-month practicum with the
United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-HABITAT). In my role as Junior Cities
and Climate Change Specialist I was based in Hanoi, Vietnam and Phnom Penh, Cambodia, with
an additional short-term mission in Laos. These countries are part of the UN Asia and Pacific
region, with UN-HABITAT’s headquarters located in Fukuoka, Japan. The position was
supported through resources from CCCI, and I directly reported to Bernhard Barth, Human
Settlements Officer and CCCI focal point for tool development and headquarters focal point for
CCCI in Asia and the Pacific. My work has provided me with access to various resources and
expertise in the areas of urban development and climate change adaptation and vulnerability
assessment. The research for this case study was undertaken during a documentary filmmaking
assignment in Hoi An and after the completion of two significant projects undertaken by UN-
HABITAT in Hoi An, Vietnam: 1) A Vulnerability Assessment in 2010 and 2) An Eco-City
Development Plan in collaboration with Portland State University starting in 2009. The final film
produced is called “Flood Lines – Urban Adaptation to Climate Change in Hoi An, Vietnam”
and henceforth will be referred to as “the video” or ‘the film”. It is accessible for viewing at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHhJ6HJ8ReA.
For the research of this paper, I investigated various aspects of coastal urban development and
climate change adaptation in order to develop an understanding of key issues relevant to the
topic. The methodologies employed consisted of three activities to examine the relationship
between urban development and climate change resilience. First, I performed a thorough
literature review of the issues, including the work of UN-HABITAT. Second, I consulted with
several individuals working on these topics including UN-HABITAT staff and participants in the
Vietnam Climate Change Working Group (CCWG). Finally, over the course of two weeks in
August 2013 my colleague, Nguy Ha, and I worked in Hoi An on a documentary film about the
resilience of the people in the city and their ability to cope with natural disasters, specially
flooding, which are exacerbated by climate change and development. As part of the film
assignment we interviewed eighteen individuals: six government officials, two non-profit staff
members, four local household members, two representing the women’s union, and four tourism-
sector workers. Of the eighteen interviewed, ten were male and eight female, ranging from
young people to the elderly. Fifteen of the interviews were conducted in Vietnamese by my
colleague Nguy Ha, and then were subsequently translated to English by staff and interns at the
UN-HABITAT Vietnam Office. Nguy Ha and I also visited various locations that illustrated
climate change impacts, structural response measures, and vulnerabilities. Much of the findings
in the case study are based on the interviews and investigations employed during this
assignment.
UN-HABITAT has previously worked with the local government and other stakeholders to
assess the climate change vulnerabilities and develop an eco-city strategic plan in Hoi An
looking towards the year 2020. The methodology of the vulnerability and adaptation assessment
(VAA) was fundamentally based on the framework suggested by other international agencies
such as the World Bank, the IPCC, the UNDP and UN-HABITAT’s Sustainable Cities

19
Programme. The team employed qualitative and quantitative methods. Vulnerability was
determined as a function of exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability. The eight-step process of the
assessment can be found in Appendix 2. Through the VAA, the UN-HABITAT team identified
hotspot areas in Hoi An and developed recommendations for priority actions required to increase
climate resilience in the city. Though the report is quite robust, I would argue that the work could
have been improved had the authors been based in Hoi An, rather than Hanoi with sort duration
trips to the city.
It is worth noting that there are other limitations in the methodology of the work that was
conducted: 1) the two week film production shoot (i.e. the fieldwork), from which much of the
information was gathered, did not focus on all climate change threats and natural hazards but
rather one in particular – flooding – which was identified as the most severe issue; 2) the
fieldwork was conducted in August and therefore more recent developments may exist but the
information is not easily accessible to the public; 3) I did not witness the impacts of flooding
personally but rather relied on accounts from the interviewees, various news articles, photos,
films, and the Vulnerability Assessment; 4) the interviewees may not have always been fully
transparent in their answers as the interviews were conducted on camera and there is a level of
hesitancy regarding any critique of the government based on the political environment; 5) the
Vulnerability Assessment was completed in 2010 so therefore the data collected may be slightly
outdated at this point. For instance there are project developments relating to the provision of
water and the reforestation and protection of water coconut forests that are new as of the VA.
8. LITERATURE REVIEW
In this review, I will primarily explore the urban climate change resilience and adaptation
literature. As part of this analysis, it is also important to understand the context of vulnerability,
i.e. what influences people and systems to be more susceptible to the impacts of climate change
in the short and long term. But first, I would like to address the overwhelming consensus
regarding the causes of climate change, as this is a central debate that influences the development
path of cities and towns, and the debate over what actions should be taken.
8.1. Causes of Climate Change
Climate scientists generally agree that the climate change that has been occurring since the
industrial revolution is primarily caused by human activity, such as the increased levels of CO2 in
the earth’s atmosphere. The latest IPCC report published in 2013 presents clear and robust
conclusions that there is 95% certainty that human activity is the leading cause of observed
warming since the mid-20th century (2013). Most of the scientific debate takes places through
peer reviewed papers, adding credibility to the findings. In a paper published in 2010 in the
Proceedings of the National Academy of Arts and Sciences of the United States, the publications
and citations of 1,372 climate researchers were reviewed and concluded that 97-98% of climate
researchers support the hypothesis that human activity contributes to climate change (World
Meteorological Organization, 2013). In another survey of 928 articles with the key phrase
“global climate change” not one article rejected the notion that humans are in part causing

20
climate change (World Meteorological Organization). In fact, a 2009 survey by the American
Geophysical Union found that 82% of the 3,000 responding Earth scientists believe that human
activity contributes to climate change – of those 97.4% were climate scientists (World
Meteorological Organization). Human-induced climate change is not heavily contested in the
scientific community, yet the mainstream media periodically raises doubts that are out of line
with the predominant findings in the scientific community.
8.2. Delayed Action
Though climate change has been part of international debate since the 1980’s, there is still no
consensus about the course of action for mitigation and adaptation measures. The range
regarding the predicted numeric increase in sea level rise and air temperature rise near the earth’s
surface leave some critics to suggest that climate change action should be delayed since there is a
level of uncertainty. Some economists also promote inaction, arguing that it will be cheaper to
solve the problems of climate change in the future. These assumptions are based on calculations
determined through discount rates that convert future costs to present day costs (Stern, 2007).
Hard-line neoclassical economists argue that technological progress will overcome the issues of
resource depletion and environmental degradation. The doctrine of infinite substitutability,
referenced by Thomas Prugh, assumes that human-made capital can be substituted for natural
resources without exception (1995). The argument follows that technology can fix any
environmental damage that human capital causes. Therefore this theory naturally rejects any
limits on growth and disregards the integrity of the whole ecological system. The optimism of
the infinite substitutability theory waned in the second half of the twentieth century, as scientific
theory demonstrated the negative outcomes of an approach that disregarded the limits of nature.
“Ecological sustainability,” argues Robert Costanza, “implies recognizing that natural and social
capitals are not infinitely substitutable for the built and human capitals, and that the real
biophysical limits exist” (2009, p. 373). Furthermore, while there is an acknowledgement that the
environment can absorb pollution to a point, there is a limit to the environment’s carrying
capacity.
Proponents of delayed action seem to now be the exception, however, as most of the literature
points to the need for local climate change adaptation and mitigation measures. In an urban
context, the level of uncertainty about predictions of climate change effects and the direct and
indirect linkages across multiple sectors make thinking about urban resilience a difficult task.
Despite the challenges some theorists, like Frank Ackerman (2008), support the ‘precautionary
principle’ as a way to deal with the possibility of catastrophe that could ensue as a result of
climate change. This principle argues for preventative action since the costs and consequences in
the future could be significant (Fitzroy & Papyrakis, 2010, p. 135). This principle does not
support unlimited spending to avoid every potential impact that could ensue in the future, but
rather argues for a calculated approach that does not dismiss the possibility that delayed action
could cause more damage and incur higher costs than a more proactive approach.
8.3. Urban Climate Change Adaptation

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There is growing international concern about the need to address the impacts of climate change
in urban settings, particularly in developing countries where a large proportion of the population
is poor and/or particularly vulnerable to climate change disturbances (Balk, Montgomery et al.
2009; Satterthwaite, Huq et al. 2007; Moench, 2011; UN-HABITAT 2011; Wilbanks, Lanko et
al., 2007). Direct and indirect impacts of climate change are expected to threaten a number of
different urban systems including infrastructure and services, particularly the provision of clean
water and sanitation. The impacts of global warming will induce shocks to the city’s and region’s
economy, create pressure on natural resources, threaten ecoystems and flood buffers that are
already compromised by encrouching urban development, and cause increasing health and safety
risks, particularly among the urban poor living in informal housing settlements in risk-prone
areas (Reed et al, 2013). In urban areas, adaptive capacity is very much influenced by the quality
of public services and infrastructure. Therefore, reductions in poverty, including improvements
to housing and living conditions, as well as the succesful provision of effective services, are key
to urban adaption (Satterthwaite, 2007).
The discourse on urban climate change adaptation has only recently gained momentum; the
literature historically predominantly highlighted climate change in a rural and agricultural
context (Birkmann et al. 2010; Moench, 2011). The focus on a rural setting may be based on the
perceived lower adaptive capacity of rural populations since climate change is likely to have
immediate impacts on ecosystems that are directly linked to agriculture and water resources as
well as the livelihoods on which rural populations predominantly depend (Moench, 2011; IFAD,
n.d.). In an increasingly urbanized and interconnected world, however, vulnerability can be a
function of a set of different systems; even directly impacted ecosystems in rural areas will
influence the urban areas as a result of migration, system integration, and trade.
The functioning of modern urban areas depends on the performance of critical interconnected
urban systems and infrastructures. The roles of systems, agents, and institutions and how these
are directly or indirectly exposed to climate change is an important focus in the resilience
literature. The systems most often referenced relate to water, sanitation, drainage, transportation,
and energy. I will further explore a few of these systems subsequently in this section, though due
to the scope of this paper, I am unable to go into much detail for every infrastructural system.
This infrastructure is understood as “those facilities, systems, sites, and networks necessary for
the functioning of the city and the provision of essential services in which daily life depends,”
according to Moench et al. (2011, p 41). These critical urban systems are highly interconnected
and oftentimes dependent on one another, so the failure of one could have cascading effects. In
other words, well functioning systems are essential, as vulnerable systems are more likely to be
threatened by climate change impacts, and lower the resilience of the city.
Since climate change will impact a diverse array of systems, agents, and institutions, there is
agreement that technical, natural, and social sciences should be employed in order to address
climate change. The literature highlights the need for a multi-tiered approach that incorporates
the social context and root causes of climate change stressors and not just costly engineering and
infrastructure oriented solutions (RSIS Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, 2013,
p 4). Yet despite this general consensus there is much criticism that cities typically take an overly
prescribed approach that encompasses structural and technical solutions rather than a
combination of “hard” and more socially “soft” approaches. Traditionally Vietnam, for instance,

22
has focused on preparedness and response with a significant concentration on structural measures
such as the development of seawalls and dykes (World Bank, 2009b, p. 49). Little attention has
been paid to social vulnerability or “soft” adaptation responses such as capacity building, the role
of community driven response and social capital (McElwee, 2010). The “predict and prevent”
paradigm is perpetuated. Through the implementation of specific “hard” projects, attention is
deflected from systematic weaknesses and the importance of building resilience through multiple
efforts over time is overlooked (Moench, 2011). Furthermore, this approach fails to recognize the
indirect or direct effects on complex systems over different temporal and spatial scales (Klein et
al., 2007; Moench, 2011; Reed, 2013; Schipper 2007). Scholars argue that effective temporal and
geographic planning can help to reduce the negative consequences of climate change Klein et al.,
2007; Moench, 2011; Reed, 2013; Schipper 2007).
The literature does not discount the importance of structural solutions, though in isolation they
are not sufficient. For instance, structural urban climate change adaptation discourse highlights
the need for mixed-use space to improve evaporative cooling and shading in order to address
rising temperatures in cities. The fact that higher temperatures occur in urban areas more than
rural settings is due to the so-called “heat urban island effect.” Urban greenery can help to cool
the air but it also assists with floodwater storage as it reduces surface runoff (Chau Huynh,
2013). Green roofs and green or light colored facades will also help with urban thermal cooling.
Though it is typically the poor who “….lack access to climate-controlled shelters” and other
coping mechanisms, these measures have the potential to positively affect all members of a city
(UN-HABITAT, 2009).
Related to the literature in systems, it is largely recognized that climate change will negatively
impact water storage and provision with implications on ecosystem services, livelihoods,
economic growth, and health. Efficiently and effectively managing water supply and distribution
is central for urban adaptation and resilience building to climate change. To strengthen the
resilience of the water system the city must improve groundwater management mechanisms,
strengthen water management, introduce and uphold new laws, advance hydro-climate modeling
frameworks, and develop precise accounting systems (Asia Pacific Water Forum, 2012). This
approach should be complimented by community-based approaches involving the exchange of
knowledge, experience, and examples of successful projects and practices.
Spatial development as it relates to housing is a central component of urban adaptation and
resilience. The urban poor often live in marginal areas: on steep slopes, along riverbanks and
transportation corridors, and in low-lying floodplains. In Vietnam an estimated 35% of the
country’s urban population resides in slums, defined by UN-HABITAT as informal housing
settlements combined with poor living conditions (UN-HABITAT, 2013). Informal settlements
on marginal land in and around cities has occurred in part because of a lack of affordable
housing combined with rapid urban population growth. Housing experts state that design and
constructing climate resilient housing is one method of increasing the adaptive capacity of
household members. Given the limited resources among the urban poor, however, these efforts
must be supported by secondary parties such as governments or NGOs.
Many of these structural approaches to urban adaptation are articulated in green growth
development: a planning approach that is catching attention as a way to achieve a low carbon

23
economy while enriching natural capital (Hammer, S. et al. 2011; World Economic Forum,
2014). It works towards sustainable socioeconomic development while simultaneously seeking
to achieve poverty reduction, economic opportunities, environmental preservation and social
inclusion. Key challenges include lowering GHGs emissions without stunting development and
avoiding catastrophic consequences of climate change impacts. According to the Climate and
Development Knowledge Network (2014):
The Vietnam Green Growth Strategy (VGGS) aims to accelerate the process of economic
restructuring in order to use natural resources efficiently, reduce greenhouse gas
emissions through research and application of modern technologies, develop
infrastructure to improve the entire efficiency of the economy, cope with climate change,
contribute to poverty reduction, and drive economic growth in a sustainable manner.
Though it is commendable that Vietnam has established its first green growth strategy, critics
still argue that there is a lack of institutional capacity and resources for implementation.
8.4. Urban Resilience
The notion of urban climate resilience has been raised in various international discussions, and
yet it remains at a formative stage. The resilience literature highlights common characteristics of
resilience such as “…diversity, flexibility, adaptive governance, and capacity for learning and
innovation” (Leichenko, 2011, p 165). A resilient city is prepared for current and future climate
risks, thereby limiting the severity and scale of impacts. Once a climate hazard strikes, a resilient
city is able to respond quickly, efficiently, equitably, and fairly. Increasing resilience in cities
involves pursuing poverty reduction and basic sustainable development goals, as well as building
strong institutional networks and social relationships that can serve as safety nets for vulnerable
populations. According to the RSIS, “Resilience building in Asia is characterized by the
fragmentation of policymaking, conflicts of interest and low awareness of the importance of
resilience” (RSIS Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, 2013, p 12). The Urban
Climate Resilient Planning Framework (UCRPF) focuses on resilience that is proactive and
systematic in its approach to expected and indirect effects of climate change, rather than a merely
responsive method to predicted climate impacts (Moench, 2011). The focus on “resilience” in
part reflects earlier concerns that climate change discussions concentrated too heavily on
technical solutions, i.e. “climate-proofing” rather than on larger development and governance
challenges or on more transformative change (Reed, 2013).
The concepts of resilience draws from ecological systems theory, which according to Reed is “a
body of research that, for the first time, viewed ecosystems as adaptive systems with the ability
to move to alternative states if critical thresholds were breached, as opposed to static entities that
always returned to equilibrium” (2013, p 395). Over the past few years, scholarship on “social-
ecological systems” (SESs) has built upon the previous theoretical works to encompass the role
of human intervention in these complex adaptive systems. This scholarship has criticized
conventional approaches which have not taken a holistic viewpoint, but rather have a tendancy to
manage systems independent of one another (Reed). In this line of thinking, efforts to increase
urban resilience should be in coordination with development goals and not separated from them.
These plans should also be created in conjunction with disaster preparedness and disaster risk

24
reduction strategies. Finally, there is also agreement that urban resilience goals must also be
flexible and fluid (IFAD, n.d.).
Much of the literature also highlights the need for participatory planning within the resilience
strengthening framework. Vietnam is generally criticized for its primarily top-down
methodology to climate change response measures. The Mekong Building Climate Resilient
Asian Cities (M-BRACE) project encourages an alternative to this method which includes
bottom-up and top-down participatory planning; local and scientific knowledge; shared learning
dialogues among various stakeholders, and local ownership through community based
vulnerability assessments and pilot projects (IFAD, n.d.).
The various reports written on the subject indicate that Vietnam is taking climate change trends
seriously and that there is concern regarding the vulnerability of the country, specifically along
coastal areas and low-lying deltas. But the government also recognizes that they have a lack of
urban resilience planning (IFAD, n.d.). The fact that the country has developed a national climate
change strategy is commendable since most countries have not taken such measures, though
there is also criticism of the NTP since the document has little mention of who will be the most
vulnerable and in what form adaptation will take place (McElwee, 2010).
In the discussion about climate change adaptation and resilience, it is also incredibly important to
consider maladaptation, i.e. costly solutions to problems that may never occur, or which
unintentionally create problems of their own. This was evident in 2009 when Prime Minister
Nguyễn Tấn Dũng approved a plan to build concrete sea dykes along the entire coastline at a cost
of USD $3 million per kilometer. In the case of coastal areas an attitude of “defend at all costs”
should be reevaluated. David Satterthwaite, senior fellow at IIED, also notes that official urban
policies oftentimes increase poor people’s vulnerability to climate hazards, rather than reduce them,
and in this way they illustrate maladaptation (2007). “The challenge will be to avoid maladaptation,
when faced with a choice between development in hazard-prone coastal areas offering short-term
benefits but at high risk, and development more likely to deliver lower-risk, long-term gains,”
reports the Department of International Development (2009).
8.5. Vulnerabilities
In the conversation surrounding resilience and adaptive capacity, the literature most often
identifies vulnerability as a key component. In the words of David Satterthwaite (2007, p. 25)
“there has been an important change in how urban disasters are understood as they are seen as
failures to understand vulnerabilities and act on them – and this too has relevance for
understanding how to build cities’ resilience to climate change.” In this discussion, it is also
noted that vulnerability as it relates to climate change should not be separated from vulnerability
as it relates to natural disasters and extreme weather events. The central point to understand is
how urban development and systems can help to alleviate or exacerbate the stressors of various
hazards, including those which will increase as a result of climate change (Satterthwaite, 2007).
UN-HABITAT determines social vulnerability as a function of exposure, sensitivity and
adaptability through social, economic, environmental, institutional, and infrastructure
components (2012). The most vulnerable are those who experience the most exposure to climate

25
change hazards, are the most sensitive, and who have the weakest ability to react. Marginalized
groups, such as the poor, women, cultural minorities, children, the elderly, and the disabled are
commonly recognized as the most vulnerable as they often lack access to critical systems, or they
depend on systems that are weak or susceptible to failure when exposed to climatic stressors. It is
therefore important to address the social conditions that contribute to vulnerability, such as
ethnicity, gender, economic class, source of livelihoods, and assets. According to a report by the
World Bank, long-term adaptation measures that address the drivers of vulnerability – such as
poverty and weak household resilience – do not yet exist in Vietnam (McElwee, 2010).
While the developed countries of the global North have thus far contributed the most to the
climate change problem, they likely will suffer the least from climate change in part because of
their ability to more readily adapt. According to the IPCC “Researchers argue that poorer
developing countries and smaller economies are more likely to suffer more from future disasters
than developed countries, especially in relation to extreme impacts” (IPCC, 2012, p. 265). The
world’s poor are often the most vulnerable to climate change since they lack the resources that
would facilitate adaptation (Adger, 1999). It can be extremely difficult for the urban poor to
minimize the economic losses and other impacts from climate change and natural disasters and
therefore these hazards have the potential to deepen and broaden poverty for those already living
at or below the poverty line (The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The
World Bank, 2011). The urban poor frequently experience less diverse sources of income; less
access to credit; poor quality housing; lack of political rights: and limited basic access to water,
sanitation, drainage, and waste disposal. People with low incomes oftentimes live in marginal
areas of the urban landscape that are more prone to natural hazards such as flooding, typhoons,
and droughts and have minimal capacity or funds to cope (Adger, 1999; CARE, p 15). These
combined factors increase the vulnerability of the urban poor and influence their ability to
successfully adapt to various hazards. As Adger (1999) points out:
The justification for the focus on absolute poverty is that poverty exacerbates
vulnerability through lack of resources for handling external shocks; correlation of
poverty to disempowerment and lack of access to resources when shocks occur; and the
reliance of the poor on communal and other resources which may be more physically
vulnerable to external shocks.
Poverty increases people’s exposure to risks and climate change increases risks, and these in
combination result in poor people being most vulnerable to climate change (Adger).
Diversification of income generation is one mechanism for reducing vulnerability where it is
argued that this will create greater livelihood resilience against disruptions (Adger). For coastal
communities, this is especially important since many sources of income can be classified as
“climate dependent” such as activities related to fisheries, and aquaculture (Adger). Policy
should enhance social and ecological systems against climate change shocks in order to deliver
quality services that support livelihoods. But this approach should rely heavily on the active
participation of those engaged in these livelihoods and not solely on government intervention.
Women are particularly vulnerable due to their responsibilities in the home for the collection of
household water supply, the fuel for cooking and heating, as well as ensuring food security for
the family (Agarwal, 2000; IPCC, 2011). Given the relationship to these activities, women are
more negatively affected by drought caused by uncertain rainfall and deforestation (Agarwal,

26
2000). Women’s various household responsibilities further compromise their mobility. Women
also have limited access to information, resources and services. This does not, however, discount
the fact that they can also be active agents in addressing immediate and strategic solutions to
climate justice. Thus it is especially important that their voices are included in the discourse and
in response planning.
There is scattered evidence highlighting the vulnerabilities of children to climate change impacts.
Children are at a rapid stage of development with immature organs and nervous systems and a
lack of experience that would enable learned coping mechanisms (UN-HABITAT, 2011). As
such they are more sensitive to disruptions of severe weather events and climate hazards such as
heat waves, heavy precipitation, and droughts. Their vulnerability can be intensified by poverty
as well.
In the literature regarding climate change vulnerabilities, rural populations and urban populations
are oftentimes contrasted. The working paper on Climate Change Analysis and Adaptation
Responses argues that those living in rural areas are most vulnerable to the negative impacts of
climate change, since they are particularly reliant on ecosystem-based livelihoods (IFAD). RSIS
Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies contradicts this point; they argue that based
on their reliance on government infrastructure, urban residents are generally considered less
resilient than rural communities (2013, p 15). The argument follows that the urban populations
reliance on systems and the oftentimes fragility of those systems in developing countries, make
urban populations more susceptible to the negative impacts of climate change. Urban and rural
vulnerability respectively cannot be seen as mutually exclusive, however, as they are inherently
interconnected in terms of trade, remittances, ecosystem services, and seasonal migration.
Furthermore, the literature should be careful with this comparison altogether as there is no value
in regards to a theoretical competition over whether urban or rural dwellers are most vulnerable.
According to The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development of The World Bank,
cities can take a number of different measures to build resilience among the vulnerable: 1) raise
awareness about climate change impacts, especially the effects on the most vulnerable, 2)
include the most vulnerable in the climate change planning and implementation process, 3)
include community-based adaptation into city plans, 4) support local organizations who already
work with vulnerable groups, and 5) reinforce land administration and regulation, including
aiding those living in informal settles (2011).
8.6. Learning and Knowledge Sharing
An essential component for capacity building for resilience involves awareness raising among
policy makers and civil society. Despite the available information, climate change is not a
mainstream focus among the officials in Vietnam, though efforts are being made to remedy this
through the support of agencies like UN-HABITAT.
In the context of urban planning, climate change adaptation approaches should also be based on
the local knowledge combined with regional and global knowledge. A one-size-fits-all
adaptation strategy will not work for Vietnam, or any country for that matter (McElwee, 2010).

27
According to the Urban Resilience Report “To be effective, plans must account for localized
knowledge and interests, the geographical limits and economic drivers of the city, and the
changing state of the environmental systems upon which the city depends” (RSIS Centre for
Non-Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, 2013, p 4). The importance of communication and
knowledge sharing is recognized in much of the literature, with an emphasis on inclusive
decision-making among diverse stakeholders at multiple scales.
An increasing number of cities around the world have begun to plan for climate change through
stand-alone plans, or by mainstreaming climate change into existing policies, plans, and
programs. Climate change plans can also be incorporated and integrated into disaster risk
reduction (DRR) in cities. The World Bank notes that since many are already familiar with DRR,
that framework can be used as a platform in which to develop climate change actions, including
vulnerability assessments; planning; and adaptation plans, implementation, and assessment
(2011). It is important in this planning process, however, to consider the incremental or gradual
changes that occur as a result of climate change, and not just the immediate climate hazards that
are more visible. It is equally important to include the most vulnerable, including the poor, in the
planning process to best ensure that this population is not overlooked, as is oftentimes the case.
9. CASE STUDY FINDINGS AND DISCUSSION
9.1 The City of Hoi An
Hoi An is located in the south central region of Vietnam, 30 kilometers southeast of Da Nang
City. Situated in the coastal and estuary plain of Quang Nam
Province in the Thu Bon River basin, the city is
characterized by a low-lying and unstable topologic
foundation which has created islands and a coastal and
estuary wetland ecosystem. Hoi An is comprised of a dense
network of canals, streams, and rivers, most significantly the
Thu Bon River and the Truong Giang River. Combined
surface area of the rivers and streams occupies over 23% of
the total area of the city (UN-HABITAT, 2012b). Typhoons
occur in September, October and November, which often
coincides with flooding. Based on its geography and
typography, the city is particularly susceptible to changes in
sea level rise, ocean waves, and river flow. Furthermore, Hoi
An is under great pressure from tourism development,
urbanization, and high population density.
Hoi An has a rich 2,000 year old history and the city served
as a major international port in the 16th
and 17th
centuries.
Boasting over 800 preserved ancient homes, Hoi An ancient
town was recognized by UNESCO in 1999 as a World Cultural Heritage site and in 2009 Cham
Island of Hoi An was recognized as a Biosphere Reserve. The city is composed of nine wards
(Minh An, Son Phong, Cam Pho, Thanh Ha, Tan An, Cam Chau, Cam An, Cua Dai, Cam Nam)
• Geographical coordinates:
Latitudes North 15° 52' 46"
Longitudes East 108° 20' 6”
• Seasons: 2 - dry and rainy
Population: 121,716
• Area: 6,171.25ha
By functional categories:
- Farming land: 1,188.24ha
- Forest land: 796.20ha
- Other agricultural land: 273.01ha
- Rural residential area: 221.95ha
- Urban residential area: 482.75ha
- Area for specialized use:
669.91ha
- River, springs and water surface
for specialized used: 1,143.78ha
- Other non-agricultural land:
217.90ha
- Unused land: 1,177.50ha

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and four communes (Cam Thanh, Cam Ha, Cam Kim and Tan Hiep). Cham Island is part of the
Tan Hiep commune, but for the sake of this paper, I will only focus on the mainland. A map of
the city is included in Appendix 5 for reference.
Between the years of 2004 and 2010 Hoi An experienced an economic growth rate of 11.5% —
much higher than the national average — and people’s living standards were greatly enhanced
(UN-HABITAT, 2012b). This occurred in tandem with the city’s urbanization trend. With a
population of 121,716 people, Hoi An is designated as mid-size urban city. Though Hoi An is
classified as a city, there is still a significant amount of agricultural land: almost 900 hectares in
Minh An ward and 219 in Cam Chau. It is noteworthy that Hoi An has higher rates of access to
basic services and a relatively low poverty rate of 3.85% compared to other places in Quang
Nam Province.
Housing is most dense in the Minh An, Tanh An, and Cam Pho wards, which includes the
ancient city. Although classified as one city, there is great disparity in the living standards and
socio-economic conditions between the wards in the ancient town such as Minh An and Tan An
and that of the rural communes of Cam Kim, Cam Chau and Cam Thanh. Citywide semi-
permanent housing accounts for over 50% of the total housing. These structures are usually more
vulnerable to natural disasters such as flooding and storms since they typically have tile or tin
roofs and a combination of brick and wooden walls. Due to these disparities among others,
people experience changes in the economy, environment, and climate in varying ways.
With its prime geographic location and beauty combined with a rich cultural history as a trading
hub, Hoi An has become a tourist destination attracting approximately 1.5-2 million tourists each
year. This industry accounts for approximately 60% of the city’s entire GDP (UN-HABITAT,
2010). Increased urbanization and the influx of tourists are placing pressures on the environment,
the natural carrying capacity, and the infrastructure of the city. With many households dependent
on tourism, the rainy season in the fall, accompanied by floods, decreases the number of tourists
and therefore reduces the income source from tourist services. MONRE warns that climate
change threatens the tourist industry in coastal regions as ocean warming and increased
acidification could lead to coral bleaching (MONRE, 2013). Higher temperatures and more
frequent erratic extreme weather events may also lead to shortened tourist seasons, thus
impacting the local economy.
Capitalizing on its various assets, however, Hoi An is setting out to become a model eco-city
from now until 2030, promoting green growth development. UN-HABITAT defines an eco-city
as an “urban area which manages to maintain, during the development process, an ecological
balance, without depleting natural resources, with no environmental degradation, no harmful
influence on the community health, and suitable for living and working” (UN-HABITAT, 2010,
p 5). As part of Hoi An’s eco-city plan, the city will support eco-tourism initiatives, promote
environmental protection, establish pollution control mechanisms, among other eco-friendly
methods. The aim is to create favorable conditions for people to live harmoniously with nature;
to develop without exhausting natural resources or degrading the environment (UN-HABITAT,
2010).

29
9.2. Natural Hazards in Hoi An Exacerbated by Climate Change
“The rain and wind situation is unstable. It's unusual; there have been
floods and storms in April. Before we used to prepare only for September
and October, but now the climate has completely changed.”
- Mr. Duong Phu Tam, Hoi An Business Owner (August 21, 2013)
As a city in a tropical coastal area, Hoi An is particularly susceptible to climate change impacts.
Extreme climatic events such as storms, floods, droughts, and tornadoes are expected to increase
in frequency and intensity (Smyle & Cooke, n.d., p 90). Increasing salt-water intrusion,
sedimentation of river and coastal estuaries, and coastal and riverbank erosion due to storms and
floods are other key indicators of climate change in Hoi An. In the forthcoming sections I will go
into further detail about the climate change threats and impacts in Hoi An as well as the
developments that are both impeding and helping the city in its quest to become more resilient.
MONRE issued the following climate change predictions in Table A, which includes the central
region and the city of Hoi An. Outlined are three predictions that are based on varying emissions
scenarios forecasted for the future. Despite the evidence that the world is on track for a high
emissions scenario, the government of Vietnam uses the medium emission scenario as the
foundation to measure impacts of disasters related to climate change and to guide their decision
making. All of the predictions are credible, though it may be in Vietnam’s best interest to employ
the precautionary principle and prepare for a high emmissions scenario since there is so much at
stake.
Table A: The change expected by 2100 for Central region of Vietnam compared to the period of
1980 -1999
Changes Low emission Medium emission High
emission
scenario (B1) scenario (B2) scenario (A2)
Increase in annual average
1,9 0C 2,8 0C 3,6 0C
Temperature
Increase in annual rainfall 5 % 7- 8 % 10 %
Sea level rise (cm) 65 cm 75 cm 100 cm
Source Tran Thuc et al., 2009
A vulnerability assessment in 2010 conducted by UN-HABITAT revealed that the primary
hazard in Hoi An is flooding and the secondary hazard is severe weather, both of which were
factors long before the onset of climate change. The city is most impacted when dual disasters
occur, as was the case in 2006 and 2009 when hurricanes and floods occurred simultaneously,

30
causing damage at an estimated cost of USD $1.4 – 1.7 billion, approximately 17-19% of the
city’s GDP (UN-HABITAT, 2012b).
9.2.1. Temperature
From the years 1958 to 2007 the average annual temperature in Vietnam rose about 0.5 - 0.7ºC.
It is projected that by the end of 21st
century, the annual mean temperature in Vietnam will
increase by 1.1-1.9ºC and 2.1-3.6ºC in low and high emissions scenarios respectively (UNEP,
2009). By 2100 it is projected that temperature will exceed 25o
C (77o
F) 365 days of the year, as
compared with 124 days in 2000 (MONRE, 2010). Temperature increase will also be heightened
in urban areas due to the “urban heat island effect” (McElwee, 2010). The lack of green space
and planted trees for shade and cooling will exacerbate the temperature problems. Increasing
temperatures can also facilitate the growth and development of various diseases and viruses,
which can result in an increase in epidemic outbreaks such as malaria, dengue fever, and
diarrhea. In a global context, the rising air temperatures also cause the melting of the glaciers and
warming of the oceans that leads to sea level rise.
The rising temperatures, and increased incidence and duration of heat waves, pose some strain to
energy transmission and distribution due to energy demand for cooling. This will only be an
issue for those who can afford cooling mechanisms in Hoi An, however, since much of the
population live in informal housing settlements without access to the assets of cooling systems.
This latter portion of the population will simply have to cope with rising temperatures, since they
will not have the assets to address the impending changes.
9.2.2. Sea-level Rise and Salt-water Intrusion
The sea level along Vietnam has risen about 20 centimeters between the years of 1958 and 2007,
at a much faster rate than previous periods. Over the next 100 years scientists predict that the sea
level will rise an additional 30 centimeters to one meter (based on various emissions standards),
resulting in a capital loss every year of up to USD $17 billion (80% of the country’s annual
GDP) if no protective measures are implemented (World Bank, 2009a, p 2). A rise of one meter
would mean that 11% of the total urban area in Vietnam would be directly affected, making it
one of the largest percentages of global urban exposure (Dasgupta et al. 2007).
In Hoi An, a medium sea level rise scenario will mean flooded land of 487 ha by the end of this
century, accounting for nearly 13% of the total mainland of the city. But the local government
most recently warned that nearly one third of Hoi An’s ancient town (and main tourist attraction)
may become submerged by floods by 2020. If there are no measures put into place to help
alleviate the stressors of sea level rise, arable land will be most affected, impacting food security
and increasing the risk of famine (MONRE, 2010). Infrastructure will get damaged as well,
including people’s homes; businesses; roads; electricity transmission and distribution systems;
shipping; and water quality, storage and delivery. This will of course have significant impacts on
people’s livelihoods and will impede the millennium development goals as they relate to poverty
reduction.

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As the sea-level rises the frequency and severity of salinization of freshwater rivers and aquifers
is expected to increase which poses serious socio-economic challenges (Smyle & Cooke, n.d., p
86). In the dry season, due to low river level, the issue is especially acute since there is not
enough force from the river pushing back the intrusion of salt water. The issue represents a
serious threat to the availability of fresh water and affects plant and animal farming. Soil salinity
will increasingly pose risks to people’s health, livelihoods, and well-being. Diseases may spread
more easily as well.
9.2.3. Storms and Typhoons
Vietnam’s coastal eastern seaboard is one of the most vulnerable spots in the world for typhoons
(CARE, 2009). An estimated 80-90% of Vietnam’s population is potentially at risk of direct
effects of typhoons (CARE). Annually, an average of six to eight typhoons cross the coast of
Vietnam. These storms are characterized by heavy rainfall, severe wind speeds, and high waves
and storm surges (MONRE, 2013, p. 3). During storms the electricity provision in Cam Kim,
Tan An, and Cua Dai is usually interupted, disrupting people’s lives, including their income
generation and education. Furthermore, storms can cause great damage to people’s homes and
other assets. The waves and wind also destroy the shoreline, causing massive beach erosion.
Generally, the trend reveals an increased number of storms with higher and more serious flood
levels.
9.2.4. Erosion
Coastal erosion is occurring at an alarming rate and is caused by storms, wind, waves, sea-level
rise, and development. In Cua Dai, coastal erosion encroaches on the shore at a rate of about 10-
20 meters each year (UN-HABITAT, 2012b). According to the 2010 Vulnerability Assessment,
“climate change with sea level rise increases the amplitude of tidal estuaries, rainfall increases
upstream flow velocity and energy in the river, which are the causes of more severe riverbank
erosion process in Hoi An” (UN-HABITAT, 2010, p 128). Erosion continues to threaten
embankments and roads and has taken away Phuoc Trach Village, a row of villas in one of the
resorts, amusement parks, tourism areas, and beaches, and has impacted people whose
livelihoods depend on coastal tourism (UN-HABITAT, 2012b). River bank erosion is also
devastating large areas of agricultural land and property, including the homes of urban Hoi An
residents.
9.2.5. Precipitation Patterns and Floods
Generally, it is predicted that there will be a change in rainfall patterns in Vietnam: the rainy
season is expected to experience an increase in rainfall and the dry season is predicted to
experience a decrease in rainfall. It is estimated that by the end of the 21st
century, in comparison
with the period of 1980-1999, the annual mean rainfall increase is likely to be 5% and 10% in
low and high emissions scenarios respectively, as shown in the chart above. It is also predicted

32
that there will be an increase in rainfall intensity and a decline in the number of rainy days,
which could lead to more frequent flood inundation and droughts (UNEP, 2009). A decrease in
rainfall during the dry season will place further stress on the water supply and lead to increased
salt-water intrusion in Hoi An.
Flooding is considered to be the most severe hazard in Hoi An and conditions are expected to
become more severe under predicted climate change scenarios. On average there are three to five
major floods every year and the water level reaches one to three meters in height. It is predicted
that the flood levels will become higher and more serious. In the past ten years alone five major
floods have occurred in Hoi An, compared with only one significant flood in the 1960s, none in
the 1970s, one in the 1980s, and none in the 1990s (World Bank, 2010).
Of the four communes in Hoi An, all are affected by floods with the exception of Cam Ha, which
is located at a higher elevation. Appendix 5 contains a detailed map of Hoi An outlining the areas
most prone to flooding. In An Thang and Cam Thanh, near the Thu Bon River, there are certain
low-lying streets that are particularly vulnerable to flooding (World Bank, 2010). Cam Thanh is
one of the largest communes separated into eight hamlets with an intricate system of water
coconut forests and waterways. In Cam Thanh the fury of storms do the most structural damage
but flooding impacts people’s livelihoods and health the most. For instance, many people in Hoi
An are merchants reliant on tourism but during floods they are unable to sell their goods. Health
is also especially affected during this natural hazard due to inadequate water provision and
sewage management.
9.3. Development Influences on Urban Resilience
The severity of flooding in Hoi An is made worse byflood discharge from the Tranh River
hydroelectric dam, deforestation in the mountains of Quang Nam Province, and changes in land
use. Environmental activist Hans van der Broek (November 11, 2013) states:
We can say that in the last 20 years flooding is increasing. It's a combination of
deforestation, it's a combination of urbanization, pavement - there's a lot of
asphalt and concrete roads that are very convenient for us but it makes it that
water cannot penetrate the soil anymore and goes unused directly into the river.
There's a lot of building activities along rivers which actually starts to canalize
rivers which makes it more difficult for water to spread out during flood season
and of course we have a big problem with the people who run our hydro electrical
dam. They don't seem to have the skills to manage them in a proper way.
Especially in 2007 and 2009 it gave Hoi An big problems.
The management of the Tranh River hydropower plant is of particular concern as it contributes
to the severity of floods downstream and it increases the incidence of salt-water intrusion (UN-
HABITAT, 2012b). Hydropower plants have numerous negative impacts including loss of life
caused by flash flooding and strong currents; damage to the environment, property and
infrastructure; displacement of people; loss of agricultural land; loss of ecosystems; disruption in
fish migration; reduction in the amount of rich nutrients carried in the river to lower delta areas

33
for agriculture and aquaculture fertilizer; the release of methane; loss or disturbance of
livelihoods; and increased salt-water intrusion (van der Broek, 2013).
During the dry season the water at the Tranh River hydropower dam is withheld and there is less
of a force fighting against the intrusion of the sea leading to increased salinization. The Hoi An
water plant is frequently shut down due to high salinity levels, especially in the dry months of
July and August. People are left with no other choice than to purchase water, which causes
economic strain for many low-income families. Despite its significance, studies on groundwater
salinity in Hoi An are not yet available so the issue is not widely understood among governing
authorities, which leads to a level of inaction.
Conversely, during the rainy season, at a certain threshold the water constrained by the dam is
released and consequently rushes rapidly downstream, sometimes causing floods. Business
owner Mr. Duong Phu Tam (August 21, 2013) describes the situation:
Now in the upstream area of Quang Nam, hydropower plants conserve all the water;
that's why it's often dry during this season, but during the wet season, the hydropower
facilities discharge the water that then comes rapidly and unexpectedly. It does not follow
the rhythm like before and has unexpected influence; it's difficult for the people to avoid.
The sudden onslaught of the rapidly rushing water prevents people from preparing accordingly,
as they have done for the natural high water in the past. Without ample warning, people are not
able to stock up on provisions, and they are not able to relocate their household goods, including
livestock in some cases, which leads to an increase in loss and damage. In September of 2009
coinciding with storm Ketsana, the A Vuong hydropower dam in Quang Nam released 150
million cubic meters of water, which worsened flooding that killed at least 163 people and
caused over USD $786 million worth of property damage (Thanh Nien, 2013). Despite this great
loss in human and economic capital, history repeated itself: in November 2013, a tropical low
pressure system coupled with water discharge from the hydropower dam caused flooding that
killed 31 people, injured three, and left two missing in central Vietnam (Thanh Nien, 2013). A
new government resolution in October 2013 warned that hydropower investors would be charged
USD $1,185-1,423 for discharging water without giving proper warning, but critics argue this
penalty is too low to incentivize change.
Beyond impacting human life directly, the hydropower station also disrupts the natural living
patterns of fish and fertilization of the soil. In the words of Mr. Nguyen Van Dung, Vice
Chairman and Chair of the Flooding Committee, “Hoi An people still remember, 20 to 25 years
ago, when the flood came, they could catch fish on the roads. The environment was better back
then. The floods brought fish with them” (August 22, 2013). Also, prior to the construction of the
hydropower dam, the nutrients from upstream would flow downstream and fertilize the soil
during floods. These nutrients are now being withheld at the dam and therefore do not enrich the
soil. (Agriculture does still benefit from the elimination of the mice and insects as a result of the
floods.) The mismanagement of the dam significantly impacts people directly, yet there has been
little movement among governing bodies to transform policies and procedures. Improved
management of the hydroelectric dam would help reduce the incidence and severity of flooding
as well as improve the problem of salt-water intrusion.

34
The deforestation occurring in the mountains of Quang Nam Province also contributes to the
problem of flooding. Vegetation and their root system serve to retain much of the precipitation as
it reaches the land. Without this ecosystem barrier, water rushes downward leading to erosion
and flash flooding.
As previously mentioned, the ability to maintain and provide basic services during natural
disasters is critical to building resilience. When flooding occurs in Hoi An, the water source
oftentimes becomes contaminated, since the primary source in some communes is through self-
built exposed wells whose mouth is positioned at a low elevation. In the ancient city this is less
of an issue as most households are connected to a more modern water provision system with
pipelines. As of 2010, Hoi An’s water supply has the capacity to serve 65,000 m3/day for 75,000
people based on grade III’s standard of 80 liters/person/day (UN-HABITAT, 2012b). Reaching
only 61% of the 121,716 population, it is evident that the city’s infrastructure is failing to meet
the demand. Increasing pressures are presented by the influx of tourists each year as well.
Several wards further from the city center lack access to clean water altogether. As part of the
eco-city plan, Hoi An aims to improve the drinking water reserve and supply a delivery grid to
the city, but this is not listed as a first priority. As the city’s population grows, this poor
infrastructure will witness further stressors given the changing climate and poor development.
For the communes whose water supply is more vulnerable, people may suffer health and
economic hardships as they resort to drinking contaminated water or purchasing expensive
bottled water that can be difficult to transport, especially during floods (UN-HABITAT, 2012b).
The lack of adequate wastewater and sanitation management also greatly compromises the health
of people during the floods and represents an area for great improvement. In fact, no Vietnamese
city has a centralized sewage system that can adequately meet the demand for drainage. This
inefficiency leads to increased incidence of disease, especially after storms and floods. Those
who are vulnerable suffer the most, including children, pregnant women, the elderly, and the
poor (World Bank, 2010). In the words of business owner Mr. Duong Phu Tam, “Contaminated
flood water contains bacteria and germs, so food during flooding season also creates intestinal
disease. Long-term inundation spoils the vegetables and humans are also affected” (August 21,
2013). It is not uncommon to find an increase of outbreaks of diarrhea and cholera, as well as the
mosquito-borne diseases dengue and malaria during periods of flooding.
Hoi An is making concerted attempts to increase the effectiveness of the wastewater and
drainage system which will generally increase the city’s resilience. For reference, Appendix 7
contains a chart outlining the local and city drainage capacity. There is a wastewater collecting
sewer system in some of the wards, particularly in and surrounding the ancient city, but in the
more suburban wards the system is inadequate and/or absent. For instance, the drainage system
in Cam Thanh commune is weak with the streets taking roughly four days to one week to drain
(UN-HABITAT, n.d.). Hoi An is working on a project for a centralized sewage treatment
system, though not all funding has been secured at this time so a completion date has not yet
been announced.
Poor solid waste management can also add to drainage issues. As part of the recommendations in
the eco-city development strategy in 2010, Hoi An ancient town set out to eliminate plastic bags
that can serve to constrict water flow in the drainage systems. This effort has proved to be

35
unsuccessful, however, as plastic bags are distributed liberally in the ancient city. Despite the
failures of this proposed initiative, the solid waste collection system in the ancient city is highly
proficient with waste collected three times a week, making it one of the cleanest cities in
Vietnam. The canals along the ancient city are also frequently rid of trash in order to improve the
beauty of this tourist destination and to advance drainage capacity. This is not to say that the
ancient city is completely devoid of waste in the streets and in the canals but there has been
significant improvement over the past few years. Though there is adequate solid waste
management in the ancient city, many of the other wards do not have such a positive investment.
During flooding season, the lack of adequate waste and wastewater management in some of the
communes, leads to increased issues related to health and sanitation.
Local authorities are attempting to improve the infrastructure in Hoi An in order to create a more
resilient urban environment. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a loan of USD
$1.2 million for infrastructure development under the project name of Urban Environment and
Climate Change Adaptation. The project will construct and upgrade the infrastructure facilities
to improve the urban environmental conditions in Hoi An and two other Vietnamese cities. The
desired outcome is climate resilient urban infrastructure accomplished by strengthening the
municipal financial base through an increase in tax revenue from the appreciation of land value
and the tourism industry. The project is in line with Vietnam’s Socio-Economic Development
Plan (SEDP), 2011-2015, which places “high priority to construction of urban infrastructure,
taking into account environmental protection, in which special importance is attached to traffic
networks, water supply systems and sewerages, waste and water treatment facilities, facilities for
collection, transport, treatment and burial of waste, especially hazardous waste in urban areas
and industrial zones” (Asian Development Bank, 2013, p 2).
The specific Asian Development Bank project outputs are as follows:
1. Waste-water collection and treatment facilities are constructed and upgraded.
2. Flood protection and erosion control facilities are built.
3. Facilities to protect the reservoir from salt-water intrusion are built.
4. Solid waste collection and treatment facilities are provided.
5. Institutional capacity of executing agencies (EAs) and implementing agencies (IAs) are
strengthened.
Though the water supply system in the ancient city will be upgraded, the project does not include
water connection from the street to household. Therefore, each household will bear the cost of
construction for the waterline connection. For many households, this is complicated and costly
given the ancient structures of the homes and is therefore unattainable. Some sort of lending
scheme should be created to support these households, and plans should be put into place to
develop a system of water provision that is inclusive of all wards and communes.
The disappearance of permeable land is another development in Hoi An that has reduced the
cities resilience against particular natural hazards such as flooding. As the city has developed,
increasingly areas are paved with cement, creating an impermeable barrier. In the ancient city,
the cement is poured right to the edge of the base of the trees, which prevents water from
reaching its roots. This is an unfortunate circumstance especially since there are not many trees
to begin with in the ancient city. The government is slowly implementing a tree-planting scheme

36
under the guise of its eco-city development plan. Additionally, areas of recreation that serve as
temporary water storage can help alleviate the stressors of flooding. The non-profit organization
Action in the City is creating such a mixed-use space in one of their playground projects. During
the flooding season, with its human-made storage structure with permeable soil, the playground
serves to capture access water and with its shaded greenery during the dry season the area is a
place to escape the hot sun. More of this kind of an approach to development is needed rather
than measures that are at odds with the natural environment.
Overall, though land use planning in Vietnam incorporates some risk reduction policies,
exposure to natural hazards is not consistently taken into consideration. In the words of David
Satterthwaite, “it is also common for cities to expand and develop in ways that erode natural
defenses or buffers (for instance wetlands) and increase flooding risks from rainfall (as an ever
larger area is covered by buildings or paved surfaces)” (2007, p. 11). Vietnam’s building codes
factor in some natural hazards such as typhoons, earthquakes, sea level rise, and wind loading,
but the enforcement varies widely from province to province. For instance, according to the
World Bank, a site prone to flash flooding will not restrict development and incorporating flood
resistance for building is fairly loosely enforced (2009b, p 55). This is evident in the demolition
of the defending pine forests along the coast from Cam An to Cau Dai in order to construct
resorts.
The destruction of the protective poplar trees along the coast as well as sea level rise and
increased storms are major causes of beach erosion. Poplar forests serve as an essential natural
barrier that protect against beach erosion. UN-HABITAT’s Vulnerabilty Assessment reports
“since 2000 urbanized tourism projects have cut down poplar forests causing serious
consequences, strong coastal erosion, degraded housing, disease, pollution, and soil salinity”
(2012, n.p.). Coastal resorts in Hoi An built nearly up to the waters edge, destroyed these
protective forests. As a result, the sea has swept away the beaches that served as the original
inspiration for the development of these resorts. To protect the coastline, officials were left with
little other choice than to build an expensive protective seawall spanning 1,132 meters. In the
interviews conducted for the film, there was concern that none of the officials interviewed
acknowledged the role that this development has played in the dissapearance of the beach. Mr.
Nguyen Long from the Economic Division simply glossed over these concerns stating, “People
support the dyke construction. They are so excited and hope that the remaining area will be built
with dyke by related agencies then put into projects, hereby people’s life are stabilized” (August
21, 2013). This statement also illustrates the omission of other eco-based solutions such as the
replanting and proper management of poplar forests, which would bear much less of an
economic burden then a technical solution such as a seawall. There is a small area adjacent to the
seawall in which the government has planted poplar trees, but their growth and maintenance is
left to the community, which has proven to be ineffective, as locals have to carry buckets of
water by motorbike in order to replenish the plants. Off-camera one local homeowner in the
adjacent community said it was just not possible to water the plants, despite their desire to do so:
a nearby water source would be required.
Furthermore, dyke and seawall construction has oftentimes propelled further urban growth in
high flood and storm risk areas, and the development pattern in Hoi An is no different. The land
adjascent to the new protective seawall lays baren as it has been stripped of any natural growth.

37
In its place stand construction equipment and the beginning of a housing development project. It
is clear that key decision-makers are not taking into account the environmental risks and climate
change predictions in these development plans.
Hectares of designated protected water coconut forests in Cam Thanh and Cam Chau have also
been cleared as a result of a four-lane highway funded by the national government that is being
constructed along the coast. Simultaneously, as the government destroys water coconut forests, it
has passed legislation (such as the Law on Forest Protection) to reforest vulnerable areas and
encourage sustainable ecosystem management (World Bank, 2009b). In order to strengthen
responsiveness to climate change the authorities submitted a proposal titled "Re-create, Develop
Water Coconut Forest to Mitigate the Impacts of Climate Change and Combine with Investment
into Infrastructure for Community Ecological Tourism." This project seeks to provide planning
solutions to climate change by developing water coconut forests that will simultaneously
facilitate the development of ecological tourism. The project is proposed for Cam Thanh
Commune, the very same place where massive deforestation is currently occuring.
The development trends along the riverbanks also illustrate poor management of natural
resources. Sand mining and channel widening are causing riverbed erosion and landslides.
Although there have been ample studies on changes in estuarine, coastal, and river fluctuations in
the Thu Bon River of Hoi An, these results have not been used to influence more effective
proactive measures to further protect the area from erosion. Rather than employing natural
mechanisms to protect against erosion, the solutions that are being exercised are hard structural
responsive measures, such as the construction of a breakwater that aims to protect the old section
of Hoi An. The project is part of a larger plan to anticipate and address the effects of climate
change. The estimated project cost is USD $7.2 million, with half coming from the State and the
other half coming from the local government budget, as well as other resources. This new
construction will replace the former breakwater that was destroyed, especially after severe
flooding in 2011.
To summarize then, the city’s adaptive capacity and resilience is largely influenced by its spatial
development and its management of systems relating to water, sanitation, drainage,
transportation and energy. Despite the city’s attempt to strengthen its resilience through a
number of different mechanisms, Hoi An faces different challenges regarding its ability to
effectively adapt to climate change and natural disasters. The following is a summary list of
some of the challenges, though it is not inclusive of all the barriers that exist.
a) There is a lack of a system to evaluate climate change stressors.
b) There is a lack of institutional coordination to prepare and implement climate change actions
plans.
c) The governance structure is primarily top-down.
d) There are too many plans across the national, provincial, and city level with little consistency
across these plans.
e) There are not enough financial resources and mechanisms available to respond to climate
change impacts.
f) There is a lack of leadership and technical capacity to mainstream climate change into urban
development plans and programs.

38
g) The private sector, NGOs, and the community are not adequately involved in climate change
response planning and implementation.
h) There is a lack of a development control framework that will prevent urban sprawl into
agricultural and ecologically sensitive land.
i) There is an inadequate legal framework for integrated and strategic urban planning.
j) There is an absence of synchronized and comprehensive plans for infrastructure development
and management.
k) There is inappropriate tourism development that places pressures on the natural environment.
9.4. Adaptation Approaches in Hoi An
In Hoi An, there are a number of different coping mechanisms employed by its inhabitants to
deal with the threats of natural disasters, climate change, and mismanaged development. The
people show great resilience, yet more can be done to strengthen their adaptive capacity.
The Vulnerability Assessment conducted by UN-HABITAT found that resilience to flooding
was the greatest as compared to other hazards that threaten the population and the city. A “living
with floods” motto has been adopted by the city. “Hoi An is a city located at the end of a river,”
states Duong Phu Tam (August 22, 2013). “Not only this generation, but previous generations
are well-adapted to flooding, because it happens every year, so people learn to adapt to
flooding.” Though people cope with this natural hazard, as is required out of necessity, flooding
leads to household disruptions in terms of access to health, education, and employment
opportunities.
At the household level people typically cope with the incidence of flooding by simply storing
their material goods on the second floor away from the effects of the intruding water. Those who
do not have a second floor seek out assistance from family, friends and neighbors. This is an
example of a community driven adaptation response. During the floods, residents gather on beds
or ledges until the water subsides. When there is ample notice, individuals stock up on water and
food beforehand.
To help people cope with floods the government assists some people through a number of
different measures including relocation to shelters, distribution of food and water, lending
mortgage loans, and building houses for the poor. Based on the interviews as well as visual
evidence, however, it is clear that more interventions are needed. For the film, my colleague and
I interviewed one household member who had constructed a protective wall along her home
situated by the river. Comprised of cement cylinders and bags of sand, it was visually clear that
there was an ongoing battle against the impacts of floods. She explained that she had to borrow
money for the structure and pleaded for the government to assist in the construction of a flood
resistant house. Like this household member, those who live alongside rivers or estuaries are
particularly vulnerable and in many cases their houses can not suitably resist the impacts of
flooding. Regarding immediate responses, in some cases during natural disasters the government
distributes supplies in the form of small portions of rice and water. Several of the interviewees
indicated that the supplies provided were not sufficient for their needs, however. These reactions
of the government are examples of the emergency response plan employed by each hamlet. In

39
some cases people are evacuated to schools, community centers, or to multi-level homes. The
rescue team gives priority to those who are most vulnerable: the elderly, women, children, and
the disabled. Communication and transportation are central components to this temporary
relocation plan. Nevertheless, there are inadequate communication devices, such as walkie-
talkies, and insufficient high-powered boats used by emergency relief personnel. Not every
commune contains adequate evacuation temporary housing, but there are plans to construct more
with the help from foreign investment.
Though people’s adaptive capacity to flooding is relatively high in Hoi An, their ability to cope
with other climate change stressors is considered weak. So far there are barely any significant
changes to help people to deal with the incidence of salt-water intrusion. At the household level,
individuals are left with no other choice than to purchase bottled water, which can cause
economic strain and prove difficult to transport during severe weather and flooding. Storms can
cause great structural damage to people’s homes, especially along the coast and these structures
are oftentimes not equipped to withstand this pressure. The ability to cope with coastal erosion is
also weak, so the impacts on the community are quite significant. Conversely the community is
used to responding to riverbank erosion so the consequences are not as substantial as other
hazards. Appendix 6 shows Hoi An’s adaptive capacity to natural disasters and from this chart it
is clear that technology and financial assets represent the biggest barriers to the city’s resilience.
10. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION AND
RESILIENCE RESPONSIVENESS
There are hundreds of policies, programs and projects that the city could implement in order to
build resilience to climate change impacts. Here I will focus on some of the key
recommendations, though this is not comprehensive of every solution that could be executed. As
discussed above, the city does not have the resources to combat every climate change threat, but
careful consideration should be made to those responses that are within the means of the city and
will have the greatest impact.
When considering hazard risks and resilience in an urban context, it is important to address basic
development needs such as water, drainage, housing, waste management, energy and
transportation. The improvement of basic services will positively impact Hoi An’s population
year round, and will help to alleviate some of the issues that arise due to climate change and
natural disasters. Hoi An should accomplish this goal by investing in infrastructure in all the
communes so that they can withstand climate stressors. Regarding housing, climate resilient
materials and design should be utilized in new developments and pre-existing buildings should
be reinforced so that they are protected from natural disasters. Poor households should receive
some government assistance to upgrade current infrastructure or build more climate resilient
housing. This could possibly be done through a small loan-lending scheme. Governing bodies
must also act to protect freshwater supplies through a combination of soft and hard measures.
Part of this will entail a more sophisticated hydropower dam management and communication
system. Avoidance of this pressing issue will have considerable negative impacts on people’s
livelihoods and health.

40
In addition to technical structural solutions, measures should also be put into place to protect and
replant water coconut forests and increase pine forests along the coast and marshland to guard
against sea level rise, storm surges, and coastal erosion. Forests in the mountains should be
replanted and protected in order to minimize flash flooding downstream. Careful attention should
be paid towards effective spatial development with consideration towards preservation of natural
resources and minimization of development on fragile ecosystems. Increased efforts must also be
implemented to protect green urban space, which serves to improve run-off and lower thermal
retention. When areas are developed, they should be done in a way that encourages permeability,
so that water can infiltrate the soil, replenish the water table, and lower the impact of flooding.
At the local level, Hoi An can plant more trees in order to decrease the heat-island effect
experienced in urban areas and there is the added benefit of improved air quality as well. But this
will mitigate the heat rise only minimally, as the global air temperature near the earth’s surface is
clearly warming and change to this trend requires a global response.
Efforts must be made to improve climate change understanding and capacity building among
various stakeholders. Grassroots groups, especially the poor, should be engaged by city
governments to ensure that a broad range of perspectives are included in long term strategic
planning. Furthermore, those involved with income generation sources that are more vulnerable
to climate change should receive trainings and support on livelihood diversification in order to
better withstand current and future climate change shocks.
10.1. Affective Governance, Participatory Planning, and Capacity Building
Though previously the dominant strategy has been to address climate change threats through
physical structures or technical measures, much attention must also be paid towards the
improvement of affective governance and participatory planning. In order for cities in Vietnam
to build resilience against climate change and natural disasters, the government must work on its
capacity building, decentralization, and efficiency, and create more cohesion between national
and local policies, programs, and projects. Further decentralization is needed in order to
strengthen the capacity of municipal authorities in the management and development of climate
change planning. City governments in Vietnam must develop low-carbon cities that are also
“climate resilient cities” by integrating and mainstreaming climate change into their overall city
plans and by involving diverse stakeholders from the community and the private sector in the
planning process. The establishment of a multi-sector institutional body (e.g. a steering
committee for climate change) to coordinate climate change adaptation responsiveness could
prove to be an effective mechanism for the planning process. The plans must also be reinforced
by national policies, development plans, and a legal framework. Climate change adaptation must
occur in a multifaceted fashion through increased knowledge and capacity building, strategic
investment plans and policies, the enforcement of laws, cooperative decision-making based on
scientific research and vulnerability assessments, collaboration among various stakeholders, and
strong political will.
In order to effectively strengthen climate change resilience, cities must engage community
members and all sectors in risk assessment, urban planning and environmental management. To
do this effectively, capacity building and awareness-raising should also be strengthened among
the public. Information about techniques to ensure sanitation, water safety, and disease

41
prevention should be disseminated. Trainings on employment diversification should be offered to
support individuals whose livelihoods are particularly vulnerable to climate change.
The climate change mitigation and adaptation planning in Vietnam represents a largely top-down
process, and has not been participatory (RSIS Centre for Non-Traditional Security (NTS)
Studies, 2013, p 14). Achieving the balance between top-down legislative authorities and
bottom-up community involvement is essential for effective climate change adaptation actions.
“Social resilience can be eroded if a government, whether at national or local levels, is too
paternalistic and focuses more on infrastructure than on people” (RSIS Centre for Non-
Traditional Security (NTS) Studies, 2013, p 19). Thus, the most appropriate responses will be
based on concerted efforts, supported by strong political will, by cooperating government
institutions, private sector entities, and community groups. City officials are in a unique position
to engage local stakeholders in this process, yet at this point in time there seems to be a
coordination disconnect. Mechanisms within the city government should be established to ensure
that the voices of the community are incorporated into short and long-term decision-making and
strategic planning processes. The best solutions will come from incorporating different types of
knowledge from various stakeholders, including the local community and those who are most
vulnerable to climate change threats. The diversification among stakeholders can provide new
insights, which can in turn better equip the city and its inhabitants to cope with climate change
and natural disasters.
While climate change is a global challenge, its impacts are felt at the local level. Climate change
responses – design and implementation – should be locally tailored to best meet the needs of the
community. It is important to develop locally based adaptation strategies that are flexible in their
design and implementation as a one-size-fits-all approach will not work. The process should
bridge existing divides and should encompass more holistic and integrated urban adaptation
formal and informal strategies at various temporal and geographic scales (Birkmann et all, 2010,
p 185). Though the solutions should be based on the local context, they oftentimes can be
adapted from other internationally successful measures; this exchange of best practices and of
knowledge can be highly beneficial.
Vietnam is criticized for its lack of a systematic assessment of the environmental, social and
economic impacts of disasters. “There is a shortage of data, tools and capacity to quantify natural
hazard risks and to interpret them in a manner which allows risk reduction to be integrated
explicitly into development planning and decision-making” (The World Bank, 2009b, p 53).
Through education and investment in human capital, Hoi An can begin to strengthen its capacity
for a more scientific and evidence-based climate change response action plan.
Government policies and systems that incorporate climate variability will generally be more
successful than those that ignore the realities of climate change. Mainstreaming climate change
adaptation can help to ensure that policies and programs are not at odds with climate change
risks in the present and in the future. As illustrated in various government policy papers and
laws, Vietnam does appear to be making positive strides to incorporate climate change into its
strategic planning. There is sometimes, however, a disconnect between official policy and the
reality of what is being implemented on the ground; certainly there is room for great
improvement in this regard.

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10.2. A More Holistic Understanding of the Value of Ecosystem Services
In addition to strengthening technical infrastructure and capacity building in Hoi An, efforts
should be made to build and improve critical ecosystem services, such as water coconut forests,
poplar forests, and forests in the mountains. Along the coast, water coconut forests serve as a
vital ecosystem: their trunks and roots form a barrier against the sea, controlling erosion,
protecting communities from storms, and providing an ideal environment for fish and species
diversification (Tang, 2012). Unfortunately much of the water coconut forests have been cleared
for the development of shrimp farms, which are highly profitable. Mr. Hien, Division Head of
Department of Natural Resources and Environment in Hoi An, describes this dilemma during an
interview:
The people will not support the Nipa Palm Forest Project if there is only a nipa
palm plantation, since we need to destroy their shrimp ponds for this plantation.
They need adequate compensation and subsidies to change their livelihood
source. That’s why infrastructure and community tourism investments are
required (August 19, 2013).
This statement illustrates the importance of conservation that simultaneously supports
livelihoods, rather than conservation that pits the environment against the interests of the people.
The two are inextricably connected. With this project and others related to water coconut and
mangrove forests, it is important that the government value the forests not just for their storm
protection but also for the other ecological contributions they provide such as nurseries for
marine life. Policies should be put into place so that the local community can sustainably harvest
water coconut resources, rather than strict protection that excludes the community from further
benefitting from this resource (Brunner, 2013). The reinvestment in water coconut forests will
help to alleviate the stresses of erosion and flooding and have the potential to increase
livelihoods as well.
In line with the water coconut forests, there should also be more value placed on the ecosystem
services of forests along the coast and in the mountains, and more generally on urban green
space. Poplar forests should be planted along the coastline and dominate the landscape over
human-made structural development. Mountainous areas should be protected and reforested to
lower the incidence of flash flooding and erosion. This will require deliberate coordination
between the provincial and city officials. The success of reforestation will also rely on prolonged
maintenance efforts to ensure the newly planted trees receive enough water initially for their
growth. In some cases the government should consider a system of payment for environmental
services (PES) in which caretakers are compensated with payments or some kind of incentives in
exchange for managing the land. Future spatial development plans should also aim to protect
urban green space, which has social benefits, serves to lower the “urban heat island effect,” and
purifies the air. Land areas should be paved over minimally and surfaces that are developed
should be done with as much permeable surface material as possible. In conclusion ecosystem
services should be more heavily valued for their benefits in building resilience against the threats
of climate change.

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11. CONCLUSION
Climate change is a long-term challenge, but it is one that requires immediate response given the
pace and scale in which greenhouse gases are accumulating in the earth’s atmosphere. Cities,
based on their high density and economies of scale, are well positioned to address climate
change causes and impacts. In reducing exposure and sensitivity to climate change
consequences, cities must ensure that development initiatives do not increase vulnerability and
inadvertently cause more damage. This will entail careful consideration of spatial development
and critical systems involved in the management of water, drainage, waste, energy, and
transportation. Soft and hard measures must be employed with inclusion of a holistic approach to
the challenges and opportunities. Programs and policies must aim to improve the adaptive
capacity of cities through interventions that build resilience and address the millennium
development goals. Cities have the capacity to increase their resilience and adapt to the stressors
of climate change, but to do so will require coordination and the inclusion of those who are most
vulnerable. The involvement of diverse stakeholders will lead to more comprehensive solutions
that will address the needs of all sectors of the city, including the poor and generally the most
vulnerable.
The case of Hoi An is illustrative of these challenges and opportunities facing cities everywhere,
especially those situated along coasts. Findings suggest that Hoi An has high adaptive capacity to
flooding and storms and great weaknesses in its ability to cope with rising sea levels and salt-
water intrusion. As previously stated, many of the natural disasters have existed well before the
occurrence of climate change, but these hazards are expected to increase in frequency and
severity as a result of global warming. The city is trying to address these concerns while
working to become an eco-city, yet its resilience is stunted by a lack of and mismanagement of
key systems and spatial development that is increasing pressures on the natural environment. To
build its resilience, Hoi An must invest in capacity building; evidence-based spatial
development; incentives for stewardship of ecosystem services; and improvement of critical
systems involved in the management of water, drainage, waste, energy, and transportation.
Global warming is no longer a theoretical idea for Hoi An or other cities to ponder; it is
occurring presently and urban areas must make concerted efforts to build their resilience and
strengthen their adaptive capacity.

44
12. APPENDICES
Appendix 1: Climate change impacts and vulnerabilities in regions, sectors, and
communities of Vietnam
(CARE International Vietnam, 2009)

45
Appendix 2: Vulnerability Assessment Methodology employed by UN-HABITAT in Hoi An
(UN-HABITAT, 2012b)

47
Appendix 4: Assessment of Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptation
Disaster Risks Adaptive
Exposure and sensitivity (E+S) capacity – Vulnerability - V
A
2011 2020 2050
Flooding 4.5 5.0 5.3 3.0 Medium –High
Salinity 3.6 3.7 3.7 1.9 Medium
Coastal
3.8 2.1 Medium
erosion
Riverbank
3.0 2.3 Low
erosion
Storms 5.0 2.8 Medium – High
Storms +
5.8 3 High – Very high
Flood
Storms +
Coastal 5.4 2.8 High
Erosion
Level Exposure and sensitivity Adaptive capacity
Very high >5 >3
High 4-5 2.5-3
Medium 3-4 2 – 2.5
Low < 3 <2
(UN-HABITAT, 2012b)

48
Appendix 5: Flood Forecasting Scenarios of Hoi An to 2020.
(UN-HABITAT, 2012b)

49
Appendix 6: Assessing the Adaptive Capacity of Hoi An to Natural Disasters
(UN-HABITAT, 2012b)

50
Appendix 7: Drainage Capacity of Each Commune in Hoi An
Local drainage capacity
City wide drainage
capacity
Inner city area
Tân An Good Very good
Son Phong Very good Average
Cam Phô Very good Average
Minh An Very good Weak
Coastal tourism zones
Cam An Good Good
Cua Đại Good Weak
Suburban region
Cm Hà Average Very good
Thanh hà Weak Average
Cam Châu Average Very weak
Cam Thanh Average Very weak
Cam Kim Very weak Very weak
Cam Nam Very weak Very weak
(UN-HABITAT, 2012b.)

51
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