Hennessy, John Dissertation Final Version

Understanding farmers’ perspectives about climate change and how
they are adapting: A case study of Gamo Gofa Zone, Ethiopia
By,
John E. Hennessy III
31 August 2015
Supervisor: Dr. Conor Buggy
UCD/TCD MSc in Development Practice
TCD: 13302388 UCD: 13206035
Word Count: 10,659

Declaration of Authorship
I, John Hennessy, declare that this dissertation has not been submitted as an exercise for a degree at this
or any other university and it is entirely my own work. I agree that the library may lend or copy this
dissertation upon request. This permission covers only single copies made for study purposes, subject to
normal conditions of acknowledgement (for further information on general College rules see
http://www.tcd.ie/calendar/assets/pdf/archive/2013-2014/calendar-part2-1213.pdf).
Signature: __________________
Name: John E. Hennessy III
Date: 31 August 2015

Acknowledgements
First and foremost I would like to thank my family, especially my parents, for all of the support I received
from them over my two years in Ireland. Participating in this Masters program would not have even been
a possibility without their support. Completing the Masters in Development Practice program is a
reflection of the values my parents have instilled in me. First, that a good education is something
invaluable that no one can ever take away from you. Second, the idea that we are put on this planet to do
more than look out for ourselves.
I would also like to thank all of my friends and classmates from the Masters in Development Practice
program. Ireland is a long way from the comfort of my family and friends in the US. Everyone with whom
I spent time with in Ireland made me feel welcome and were there for me when I felt homesick. I could
not have made it through my time here without you guys. I know that I have made friendships here that
will last the rest of my life.
I would like to thank all of the Vita Ireland staff for all the help they gave me facilitating my research and
for making me feel like a member of their team. While in the planning stages of the study I had a number
of video conferences with Vita’s Ethiopia Country Director, Asfaw Mekuria, and Akalu Gebreyes, Vita’s
Ethiopia Manager of Administration and Finance. Asfaw and Akalu have a great deal of experience
facilitating research and monitoring and evaluating programs in the study’s target area. Their knowledge
and advice about what was possible and how data collection could be done was invaluable.
Lastly I would like to thank my dissertation supervisor, Conor Buggy, for helping me complete this
dissertation. Conor took me on late when I was panicking a bit about what I was going to write about. I
could not have finished this dissertation on time without his help. Seriously……that would have been
really embarrassing when my family showed up for graduation because they optimistically booked their
tickets well in advance.

Executive Summary
Scientists and researchers have compiled a significant evidence base to support the idea that for the first
time in history humans have impacted the biosphere to such an extent that we are changing the climate
on a global scale. One of the unfortunate realities of climate change is the burdens associated with it will
not be distributed evenly across the world. Many of the most severely impacted countries are also some
of the poorest countries in the world. Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been called the most vulnerable region
in the world to climate change.
SSA has made major strides forward in the past several decades addressing social, political and economic
challenges. However, despite a number of encouraging indicators SSA still faces a wide variety of
challenges: political instability, poor health systems, social issues, poor infrastructure, rising population
pressure, food insecurity, and environmental problems. Climate change threatens to undo hard won
development gains of the past several decades and exacerbate existing challenges. The major issue
concerning governments and individuals with regard to climate change is food security. Climate change
will seriously impact agriculture. SSA has to develop and implement strategies that allow small scale
subsistence farmers to adapt to climate change and thrive. Food insecurity prevents SSA governments
and individuals from addressing all of the other challenges SSA faces.
It is within this context that this study was undertaken. Understanding farmers’ perceptions of climate
change is essential. Farmers’ perceptions of climate change impact their farming practices and the
decisions they make about changing their farming practices. This study sought to understand farmers’
perceptions of climate change, show that farmers in Gamo Gofa Zone of Ethiopia are experiencing climate
change, and identify adaptations farmers are currently making in response to climate change.
Using a mixed methods approach based on qualitative and quantitative research, 81 farmers in 4 villages
were interviewed in Gamo Gofa Zone of Ethiopia. Further, a focus group was held with government
extension staff and separate focus groups were held with the staff of a non-government organization
working in agriculture in the study’s target area. Though perceptions and knowledge of climate change
varied significantly among farmers, the results suggest that rainfall has become more erratic and less
predictable and that farmers are experiencing more hot days than in the past. The results of the study
indicate that farmers in Gamo Gofa Zone are experiencing climate change and already adapting their
farming practices.
Keywords: Climate change, perceptions of climate change, adaptations to climate change, agriculture, Ethiopia

Table of Contents
1) Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..1
1.1) Background to the research…………………………………………………………………………………….1
1.2) Hypothesis...……………..…………………………………………………………………………………………….2
1.3) Aim of the research…………………………………………………………………………………………….…...2
1.4) Overview of the research study………………………………………………………………………………..2
2) Literature review……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………4
2.1) Scope of the literature review………………………………………………………………………………….4
2.2) Impacts of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa………………………………………………………4
2.3) Farmer perspectives of climate change……………………………………………………………………6
2.4) Farmer adaptations to climate change…………………………………………………………………….8
2.5) Climate smart agriculture………………………………………………………………………………………..9
3) Methodology…..........................................................................................................................12
3.1) Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..12
3.2) Research topic……………………………………………………………………………………………………….12
3.2.1) Research question and principle aim……………………………….………………………12
3.2.2) Principal objectives………………………………………………………………………………….12
3.2.3) Literature review process………………………………………………………………………..12
3.3) Study Design………………………………………………………………………………………………………….13
3.3.1) Study type……………………………………………………………………………………………….13
3.3.2) Qualitative data collection……………………………………………………………………….13
3.3.3) Quantitative data collection…………………………………………………………………….14
3.3.4) Ethical considerations……………………………………………………………………………..14
3.4) Population…………………………………………………………………………………………………………….15
3.4.1) Target population……………………………………………………………………………………15
3.4.2) Sampling strategy……………………………………………………………………………………15
3.5) Study instrument……………………………………………………………………………………………………16
3.5.1) Introduction to questionnaires………………………………………………………………..16
3.5.2) Research question design and development……………………………………………16

3.5.3) Research questionnaire dissemination and return……………………………………16
3.6) Data analysis………………………………………………………………………………………………………….17
3.7) Limitations of the study………………………………………………………………………………………….17
4) Results………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….18
4.1) Recorded data on temperature and precipitation in Ethiopia………………………………….18
4.2) Climate model predictions for Gamo Gofa Zone……………………………………………………..19
4.3) Participants in the study…………………………………………………………………………………………20
4.4) Perceptions about climate change ………………………….……………………………………………..21
4.5) Perceived changes as a result of climate change……………………………………………………21
4.6) Farmer practices and adaptations to climate change ……………………………………………..23
4.7) Vita staff and government extension focus group key points…………………………………..26
5) Discussion…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….27
5.1) Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..27
5.2) Recorded data on climate change vs farmer opinion……………………………………………..27
5.3) Perceptions about climate change…………………………………………………………………………29
5.4) Farmer practices…………………………………………………………………………………………………….29
5.5) Farmer adaptation to climate change…………………………………………………………………....30
6) Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………32
References……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….33
Appendix………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….37
Appendix A: Questionnaire.………………………………………………………………………………………….37

Abbreviations
AGRA Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa
AfDB African Development Bank
CSA Climate Smart Agriculture
FAO United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization
IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development
ILRI International Livestock Research Institute
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
LSMS-ISA Living Standards Measurement Study- Integrated Surveys on Agriculture
MDGs Millennium Development Goals
NAPA National Adaption Programme of Action
NIEHS National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
NMS National Meteorological Service
NS Not significant
OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
SSA Sub-Saharan Africa
UNDP United Nations Development Programme
UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
WFP World Food Program

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Chapter 1: Introduction
1.1 Background to the research
A significant evidence base has been compiled by scientists and researchers to support the idea that for
the first time in history humans have impacted the biosphere to such an extent that we are changing the
climate on a global scale. There is an obvious trend in the world today. The oceans are warming, glaciers
are disappearing, and the natural world is in serious decline (IPCC 2007). Consequently the global
community is concerned about what climate change will mean. Climate change poses a real and increasing
threat that is impacting the world’s economies and its people. One of the unfortunate realties of climate
change is that the burden associated with it will not be distributed evenly across the world. Many of the
most severely affected countries are also some of the poorest counties in the world. The economies of
these countries are typically based in agriculture which climate change is or will seriously impact (UNFCCC
2007).
SSA faces a wide variety of challenges: political instability, poor health systems, social issues, poor
infrastructure, rising population pressure, food insecurity, and environmental problems. In many
countries in SSA agriculture plays an important role in development. Compared to developed countries,
in developing countries, agriculture accounts for a large portion of GDP and employs a large portion of
the population. SSA has been called the most vulnerable region in the world to climate change (Di Falco
2014). Climate change threatens to undo development gains of the past decades in SSA and to exacerbate
existing problems (UNDP 2004).
Taking steps to address climate change can be categorized into two broad categories: adaptation and
mitigation. Definitions vary depending on the source but the concepts are rather simple and
straightforward. The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines mitigation as, “An
anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases.” The IPCC
defines adaptation to climate change as, “Adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual
or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.
Various types of adaption can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private
and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation.”
Many places in SSA are already experiencing climate change and thus adaptation has increasingly become
a development priority. This has led many countries in SSA to develop a National Adaption Programme of
Action (NAPA) and to develop agricultural strategies that factor in climate change. However there is still

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a lot of work to be done on the ground to implement those strategies on a large scale. Farmer perceptions
of climate change impact the farming practices they use and the decisions they make about changing their
farming practices (Apata et al 2009). This study attempts to understand how farmers in Gamo Gofa Zone
perceive changes in their climate and to identify farmer adaptations already being made in response to
climate change.
1.2 Hypothesis
The hypothesis was that farmers in the Gamo Gofa Zone of Ethiopia are being impacted by climate change
and have begun making adaptations to adjust to the impacts of climate change. The research sought to
identify what those impacts are and what steps farmers are taking to adjust to climate change.
1.3 Aim of the research
The aim of the research in this thesis was to better understand farmers’ perspectives about climate change
and what adaptations are being made by farmers as a result of climate change in the Gamo Gofa Zone of
Ethiopia. It is well documented that Ethiopia is a country that is already being negatively impacted by
climate change, and that impact is expected to become more severe (Di Falco and Veronesi 2014). Ethiopia
has been called one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change in Africa with the least capacity
to respond (ILRI 2006). The Ethiopian government has already taken some steps to address the current
and future impacts of climate change. Including the government publication of Ethiopia’s Climate
Resistant Green Economy Strategy. In addition, an ever increasing number of non-government
organizations have begun campaigns to educate people about risks posed by climate change and to assist
people in adapting to climate change. However, like many other people in developing nations, many
Ethiopians are left to fend for themselves.
This study was conducted by interview surveys of farmers in four villages in the Gamo Gofa Zone. The
study was facilitated by Vita Ireland, a non-government organization that is engaged in food security
projects in Ethiopia.
1.4 Overview of the research study
Chapter 2 is a literature review of publications related to this study by researchers and scholars. The focus
is on the impact of climate change in SSA, farmer perspectives of climate change and adaptations to
climate change by farmers in the developing world. Chapter 3 describes the research methodology in this

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study, the rationale for the research approach taken, the limitations of the study, and a description of the
survey. Chapter 4 presents the results of the survey. Chapter 5 discusses the results within the context of
the literature. Chapter 6 draws conclusions from the discussion section.

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Chapter 2: Literature Review
2.1 Scope of the literature review
The body of literature available related to climate change and its impact is enormous. Much of the
literature and debate over the last 20 years about climate change has focused on whether climate change
is real, and if so, what the cause of it is. Today those that are educated on the subject have accepted that
climate change is a reality, and anthropogenic climate change is real. This study was on farmers’
perspectives of climate change and adaptation measures being taken in Gamo Gofa Zone in Ethiopia. As
a consequence this literature review focused on climate change literature related to agriculture in
developing countries with an emphasis on SSA. This literature review covers the impacts of climate change
on SSA, farmer perspectives of climate change, farmer adaptations to climate change, and introduces
“climate smart agriculture.”
2.2 Impacts of climate change in sub-Saharan Africa
SSA is a huge land mass filled with diverse peoples and ecologies. The last 15 years have seen SSA take
some large steps in addressing social, political and economic challenges. Armed conflict is trending
downward, there have been major strides towards achieving the millennium development goals (MDGs),
technology has been spreading rapidly, and there has been steady economic growth. Yet development
and improvements in the standard of living have been unequal from country to country and benefits have
not reached everyone equally within countries. The African Union’s vision of building an integrated,
prosperous and peaceful Africa faces many obstacles and challenges. Climate change is chief among them
and threatens SSA’s prospects for development. Natural and man-made disasters risk undoing years of
hard won development gains (UNDP 2004).
SSA is the most vulnerable region in the world to climate change although its contribution to global
greenhouse gas emissions is only equal to about 2-3% of global emissions (Di Falco 2014). The key issue
concerning governments and individuals in SSA with regard to climate change is food security. The vast
majority of farmers in SSA are small scale subsistence farmers farming on less than one hectare of land.
These small scale farmers often have to produce crops in very challenging conditions. The production
environment farmers face is characterized by low land productivity and harsh weather conditions. The
result is very low crop yields and food insecurity (Di Falco and Chavas 2009). This is made all the more

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challenging by warming temperatures and changing and increasingly erratic rainfall patterns as a result of
climate change. Increases in temperatures will have compounding effects on the environment. As
temperatures increase crops and plants will react by increasing their evapotranspiration rates. That means
that crops and plants will require more water to survive. The result of that will be more water being drawn
out of the ground which will make the environment drier and lower water tables. The increase in
temperature will also decrease the size of surface sources of water as they are exploited at a higher rate
by animals and people and evaporation increases. This greatly increases the risk of the spread of infectious
diseases among both people and animals. Changing rainfall patterns will and are making flooding and
drought more common and seriously impact food productivity; especially for farmers reliant on rain-fed
agriculture. It is worth noting that 90% of SSA agriculture relies on rain-fed agriculture (AGRA 2014). There
are many farmers in SSA that farm in areas where the crop varieties they plant are already at their
maximum temperature limits and barely meet their minimum water requirement, thus even small
changes to the climate as a result of climate change will have devastating impacts. For subsistence farmers
in most of SSA food security is synonymous with household food productivity.
In Ethiopia small-scale subsistence farmers account for 95% of agricultural output of which 75% is
consumed at the household level (World Bank 2006, p. xiv). Today Ethiopia can boast that it is one of the
fastest growing economies is in the world (AfDB, OECD and UNDP 2015). However its economy is
extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Its economy is not very diversified and relies on
agriculture as its engine for economic development. Approximately 40% of Ethiopia’s national GDP, 90%
of exports and 85% of employment are associated with the agricultural sector (Di Falco and Veronesi
2013). An example of the Ethiopian economy’s vulnerability to climate change is the impact floods and
droughts have had on the economy. According to the World Bank catastrophic hydrological events have
reduced Ethiopia’s economic growth by more than a third (World Bank, 2006, p. xi.) The fourth
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that crop production in low latitude countries in dry
tropical areas is expect to decrease even for small temperature increases (as small as 1 or 2° C (IPCC
2007)). Ethiopia is a low latitude country in a dry tropical area. Regardless of mitigation efforts happening
today Ethiopia’s climate is expected to warm as it has been for decades now. According to Ethiopia’s
National Meteorological Service (NMS) the annual minimum temperature has been increasing
approximately .37 degrees Celsius every decade for the past 55 years (NMS 2007). Also according to
Ethiopia’s NMS the major anticipated impacts of climate change to Ethiopia are as follows:
1) Increased food insecurity as a result of increased frequency of droughts and floods;

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2) Outbreaks of disease such as malaria, dengue fever, water borne diseases associated with
floods, and respiratory diseases associated with droughts;
3) Land degradation due to heavy rainfall; and
4) Damage to communication, road and other infrastructure by floods.
2.3 Farmer perspectives of climate change
The majority of literature related to climate change are scientific studies that attempt to measure the
impact of climate change on some aspect of life or the environment. That work is important for developing
policies and strategies to mitigate and adapt to problems associated with climate change. However an
equally important facet of climate change research is understanding people’s knowledge and perceptions
of climate change. An understanding of climate change in Africa by African people is necessary so that
people can demand changes of their governments and make changes in their own lives necessary to
mitigate greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change effectively (Pettengell 2010).
In the case of farmers in developing countries it is worth asking if farmers think they are being impacted
by climate change. It is often assumed that in areas where research has shown evidence of changing
climate conditions that the people in those areas perceive those changes. Farmers may take time to realize
that unusual climatic conditions are not a temporary anomaly but rather a permanent shift. One reason
it is difficult for farmers to recognize they are experiencing climate change is because of natural variation
in the climate from year to year (Mubaya et al 2012). Farmers understand that some years will be better
than others and that catastrophic hydrologic events like floods and droughts happen from time to time.
However farmers need access to information and advice to make the best decisions regarding their
farming practices. Adapting to climate change requires that farmers using traditional techniques of
agricultural production first notice that the climate has altered. Farmers then need to identify potentially
useful adaptations and implement them (Madison 2007).
Social and individual factors limit adaption action. Chief among those factors are farmers’ perceptions of
risk. Individual adaptation hinges on whether an impact, anticipated or experienced, is perceived as a risk
and whether it should be acted upon (Adger et al 2008). Farmers’ behavior is shaped more by their
perceptions of climate change and climate risk, rather than by the actual climate patterns measured by
scientific methods (Bryan et al 2013, p. 30). According to a number of studies one of the main ways
farmers form their perceptions about climate change is based on their past observations about the climate
and weather. However farmers tend to place a greater emphasis on recent climate events in forming their

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perceptions and making decisions about their agricultural practices (Gbetibouo 2009). Age and experience
of farmers also plays an enormous role in shaping farmers’ perceptions of climate change. Farmers with
more farming experience are more likely to perceive long-term changes such as rainfall variability,
increases in average temperature or a decrease in average rainfall (Bryan et al 2013). Some studies have
suggested that farmers with more experience know their local environments better and can anticipate
events such as rains and the beginning of seasons. This line of thinking suggests that farmers with more
experience are better equipped to figure out effective climate change adaptation strategies (Yegbemey
et al 2013). Other studies have suggested that it is in fact the youth who are best equipped to figure out
effective adaptation strategies. In developing countries younger people often have better access to
external information due to non-local language skills, education, access to the internet, and high spatial
mobility (Eguavoen 2013).
There is also literature that demonstrates that sometimes farmers perceive their environments
incorrectly. This can lead farmers to make poor decisions about adaptation strategies and is a reason
farmers need access to as much available information as possible so they can make informed decisions
(Mubaya et al 2012). There are a number of studies across a variety of African countries that show
oftentimes farmers perceive that the climate has gotten warmer and rains more erratic. However their
perceptions don’t always agree with available scientific data. This can lead to farmers making poor
decisions about adaptations based on poor perceptions. In agriculture there are wide range of factors that
affect agricultural productivity. An example of a non-climate factor that may be negatively impacting yield
are farmer practices that are negatively impacting soil fertility. Other studies in Africa have shown that
farmers discount the role human activity plays in climate change and instead view climate variability as a
natural phenomenon. Religious beliefs have also been shown to be a factor in perceptions of climate
change. People may view climate change as a punishment from God or spirits for moral failings or as
punishment for not conducting certain ceremonies (Mubaya et al 2012).
Farmers are not always able to accurately understand the cause of their agricultural problems. Poor farm
output can be a combination of climate variability, individual practices, political, social, and economic
problems. And it cannot be assumed that climate change is a concept farmers are aware of. Or they may
be aware of climate change but may associate changing climatic conditions with local actions only. One
such study in Ghana reveals that most people blamed local motorized vehicles, local deforestation and
local burning of land for climate change (Eguavoen 2013). A farmer’s perception of climate change is a
combination of his experiences, scientific understanding and culture. Farmers should have information

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freely available to them about climate change and the most efficient environmentally friendly farming
techniques so that they can make informed decisions.
2.4 Farmer adaptations to climate change
Farmers in SSA face a number of serious challenges from climate change including: increasing
temperatures, increasing rainfall variability, increasing frequency of catastrophic hydrologic events, and
an increased incidence of pests and disease (AGRA 2014). Farmers in SSA also face increasing population
pressure and decreasing agricultural productivity brought on by soil degradation, declining soil fertility
and increasing soil erosion which make small scale subsistence farmers more vulnerable (Lasco et al 2014).
Farmers are not just sitting back and doing nothing. In many places farmers are already adapting their
practices to address the challenges they face and improve their productivity. Of course in many places
serious monetary investment, education campaigns and help from specialists is needed.
According to the IPCC, adaptation can greatly reduce vulnerability to climate change by making rural
communities better able to adjust to climate change and variability, to moderate potential damages, and
to cope with adverse consequences (Byran et al 2013). Agricultural adaptation strategies are often
referred to as “climate proofing” in the literature and are vital for improving crop yields. Studies in Ethiopia
have shown that adaptation to climate change increases food productivity (Di Falco et al 2012). A study
in Ethiopia also showed that a farmer’s decision to adapt to changes in rainfall and temperature were
strongly correlated with two things: a farmer’s access to climate information and a farmer’s access to
credit. Information which could come from both formal and informal sources and from exposure to
government extension services was also shown to be an important factor in a farmers’ decision whether
to adapt their practices or not (Di Falco et al 2012). Land tenure is also an issue that commonly impacts a
farmer’s decision to make adaptations to climate change (Borokini et al 2014). For example if a farmer is
leasing land or his land belongs to the community a farmer may not be able to plant trees on that land.
The most common adaptations farmers in SSA are making are changing to different crops or using
different seed varieties, planting trees, using soil conservation techniques, harvesting rain water, using
irrigation, changing planting dates, and diversifying their income (Di Falco 2014). Depending on the
location-specific challenges farmers face each of those adaptations can improve resilience. Across SSA
there has been a push to give farmers access to improved seed varieties with characteristics like drought
and pest resistance. Many farmers without access to improved seeds plant a wide variety of local seed
varieties and crops as insurance. However the literature reveals that the best way for farmers to adapt

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and build resilience is to implement a combination of multiple adaptation strategies, e.g. using improved
seed varieties and taking steps to improve soil quality through the use of mulch and intercropping with
nitrogen fixing plants.
Much of the literature refers to the need for the widespread implementation of eco-friendly crop systems
that build resilience and improve livelihoods in SSA. Agro-forestry is the system the literature most often
points to as the crop system that SSA should utilize. Agro-forestry can improve soil fertility, food security,
increase income, improve eco-systems, protect forests and improve local climate conditions (Mbow et al
2014). The full benefits of agro-forestry systems are not felt in the short term (Bugayong 2003). Initially
agro-forestry systems may require governments to invest in agricultural education programs and
governments may need to subsidize investment by farmers who implement agro-forestry systems
(Buttoud 2013). Agro-forestry systems can be basic or rather intricate. The following are common
practices in agro-forestry. Planting wind breaks to block the wind which reduces soil erosion and can
improve soil fertility. Planting trees that have leaves that can be used for animal fodder to improve the
nutrition of livestock and protect against overgrazing. Producing green manure and using mulch can help
prevent wind and water erosion and improve the soil moisture content. Intercropping allows farmers to
improve the local diet and protects farmers against price shocks at the market to specific crop varieties;
nitrogen fixing species are often used for intercropping. The use of fruit trees should is promoted for
income generation and to improve local nutrition. In areas where there is cattle grazing live fencing should
be promoted. Varieties can be chosen for live fencing that have a number of additional benefits (Kiptot et
al 2014). Agroforestry systems can initially be labor intensive but over time less labor is required and
ultimately agro-forestry can help reduce the vulnerability of farmers to climate change (Thorlakson 2011).
2.5 Climate Smart Agriculture
Climate smart agriculture (CSA) was a concept introduced by the United Nations Food and Agriculture
Organization (FAO) in 2010 and since then has been become increasingly popular among the development
community. The basic concept of CSA addresses the interlinked challenges of food security and climate
change through three objectives:
1) To sustainably increase agricultural productivity through equitable increases in farm incomes,
food security and development;
2) To adapt and build resilience of agricultural and food security systems to climate change; and

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3) To reduce greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture.
The reason CSA has become so popular in the development community is linked to the growing
acceptance of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) findings on
climate change and the reality of what those findings will mean for billions of people. Also grant money is
increasingly being linked to projects being “climate smart.”
By 2050 the population of the world is estimated to exceed 9 billion people. Today the population is about
7.2 billion people and the world produces enough food to sufficiently feed the entire world. Despite that
fact 1 in 4 people in SSA are undernourished (FAO, IFAD and WFP 2014). The FAO estimates that feeding
the world’s 2050 population will require a 70% increase in total agricultural production from 2005 levels
at a time when risks to cropping, livestock and fisheries are expected to increase particularly in low income
countries where adaptive capacity is much lower (FAO 2009).
From the 1940’s through the 1960’s the world was able to dramatically increase its food output,
particularly in the developing world with the exception of much of Africa. This was done by investing in
agricultural research, development and technology transfer. The result came to be known as the green
revolution. However the impact of the green revolution was not all positive. The green revolution relied
on large inputs of pesticides, fertilizers and water to achieve its output goals. In the short term agricultural
output was greatly increased but at the expense of the environment. In many places the soil has been
damaged and water resources polluted negatively impacting ecosystems, human health and livelihoods.
Further, in many places yields have begun trending negatively (Pingali 2012). SSA was left out of the last
green revolution. CSA has been put forward by the FAO as the agriculture system Africa needs to adapt
and meet the challenges of climate change and population growth. CSA will allow those living in areas
negatively impacted by climate change to meet their dietary needs while at same time improving the
quality of soil and water resources which will have knockdown effects for ecosystems and human health
(FAO 2013).
Most CSA techniques are not new concepts. Examples include agroforestry and sustainable
intensification. For CSA to work there cannot be a cookie cutter approach. CSA has to be context specific.
It should take into account local social, economic and environmental conditions. This includes the use of
indigenous knowledge. For CSA to achieve its three objectives it will have to be implemented on a large
scale which will require the involvement of a wide variety of players from households, civil society
organizations, government institutions, non-government organizations and bi-lateral as well as multi-

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lateral institutions. Achieving food security and adapting to climate change is possible with CSA (FAO
2013).

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Chapter 3: Methodology
3.1 Introduction
This section describes the methodology used by the researcher to explore the hypothesis outlined in
section 1.2. The methodology for this study was based on The World Bank’s Living Standards
Measurement Study- Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). The LSMS-ISA provides practical tools
and advice on how to collect data on farmer practices and perspectives on climate change in developing
countries
3.2 Research Topic
3.2.1 Research question and principle aim
The primary research question of this study was, “Do farmers in Gamo Gofa Zone of Ethiopia believe they
are experiencing climate change?” The secondary research question was, “If farmers believe they are
experiencing climate change, are farmers already changing their farming practices in response to changes
in the climate?” The aim of this study was to better understand farmers’ perspectives about climate
change and to identify adaptations farmers are currently making in response to climate change in Gamo
Gofa Zone of Ethiopia.
3.2.2 Principal objectives
The study had three primary objectives. First, to document farmers’ perspectives on climate change in the
study area. Second, to find out if farmers are already making adaptations to climate change, and if so, to
identify those adaptations. Third, to identify current farmer practices in the study area in order to
highlight areas where farmers could improve their practices.
3.2.3 Literature review process
The literature review process was initiated by selecting a broad topic of interest. That topic was the impact
of climate change on agriculture in SSA. The researcher then began scanning academic journals on several
library databases to get a sense of what was published. At the same time the researcher read a number
of documents released by the IPCC and UNFCCC to have a firm grasp on the science of climate change.
After scanning a large number of academic journals the researcher narrowed the literature review

13
parameters to farmers’ perspectives on climate change and adaptations to climate change in SSA. After
reading a significant number of academic journal articles, chapters of books, websites, dissertations, and
literature released by a number international organizations and non-government organizations the
researcher formed with primary and secondary research questions. When it was determined that the
researcher was going to be gathering primary data in Ethiopia the researcher looked for literature related
to climate change, climate change adaptations and farmer perspectives of climate change in Ethiopia. The
researcher kept a notebook for notes on the literature already read and noted pages that were worth
revisiting. When the researcher reached the point that the literature had gotten very repetitive the
researcher began the process of writing. The researcher’s findings also allowed for an informed approach
to primary data collection and proved valuable when constructing the researcher’s questionnaire and in
preparation for focus groups.
3.3 Study Design
3.3.1 Study Type
This study employed mixed methods. Data collection relied upon a combination of interview surveys,
focus groups and personal observations. These methods yielded information to analyze both
quantitatively and qualitatively. Quantitative data was collected for the purpose of statistical analysis.
Qualitative data from focus groups and personal observations was recorded in a research journal and was
referred to when writing this paper. The data collected was used to understand farmers’ perspectives
about climate change in Gamo Gofa Zone in Ethiopia to show that farmers are currently being impacted
by climate change and to understand how farmers are adapting to its impacts.
3.3.2 Qualitative data collection
Based on interactions with Vita staff the researcher determined that it would be valuable to hold focus
groups with Vita’s staff at their office in Addis Abada and at their office in Arba Minch. The purpose of the
focus groups was to get Vita Ethiopia staff’s opinions about climate change and the challenges it poses for
agriculture and Ethiopians. Vita is an organization that runs food security and sustainable livelihood
programs all over Ethiopia. Their slogan is “fighting climate change in Africa,” and their staff is very well
educated and qualified regarding the area this study was researching. The focus groups allowed the
researcher to speak directly to Ethiopians without the use of a translator. This gave the researcher greater
insight into how Ethiopians view climate change, gave the researcher a better sense of what to expect

14
when collecting data in the field and provided an opportunity to talk with a larger number of Ethiopians
about his questionnaire before surveying farmers.
In consultation with Vita it was determined that it would be worthwhile to hold a focus group with some
government extension staff working in the area surrounding Arba Minch. In Ethiopia foreign non-
government organizations are required to work closely with government extension staff on the
implementation of their projects. This study was facilitated by a foreign non-government organization and
consequently Vita felt obligated to keep the government extension staff informed of what the researcher
was doing. The government extension staff that attended the focus group all worked in rural areas with
farmers. Like Vita’s staff they had a wealth of information about agriculture and the challenges local
farmers face as well as strong opinions about climate change.
The focus groups were semi-structured in English. The researcher had prepared a number of questions
based on the research aims and principle objectives of this study. The conversation was allowed to go a
bit where the participants wanted the conversation to go. The focus groups also brought to mind
questions that were relevant but that the researcher had not previously planned on asking. Throughout
the focus groups the researcher was constantly making notes in his journal. The focus groups were
between 5-8 people and lasted about an hour each.
3.3.3) Quantitative data collection
The researcher used an Ethiopian team to collect quantitative data. The members of the team were
recommended by Vita. Every member of the data collection team spoke English and was experienced in
data collection. Before going out into the field a meeting was held with the data collection team and all
questions and answers on the questionnaire were gone over in detail. Then each data collector practiced
giving the questionnaire to a Vita staff member, in the local language, to get a sense of how long each
questionnaire would take to complete one on one with a farmer. The data collectors filled out the farmers
responses on English copies of the questionnaire for the researcher.
3.3.4) Ethical Considerations
The researcher wanted to make sure that his study was done in an ethical way. All participants in this
study were adult volunteers who had given informed consent to a data collector before beginning the
questionnaire. Data collectors made it very clear the questionnaires were anonymous, they informed

15
participants who the data was being collected for and what that data would be used for. Participants were
not compensated for participating in the study so there was no monetary motivation and data collectors
were Ethiopian from the area so there was no language barrier.
3.4) Population
3.4.1) Target Population
The location of the study was four villages in Gamo Gofa Zone which lies in the Ethiopian Southern
Nations, Nationalities and Peoples’ Region. According to a census conducted by the Central Statistical
Agency of Ethiopia in 2007 the zone had a population of about 1.6 million people with a population density
of about 80 people per kilometer squared. The elevation of Gamo Gofa Zone ranges from about 500 to
3400 meters. Climate can vary significantly within a small area depending on elevation. Arba Minch is the
largest city in Gamo Gofa Zone. In 2012 its population was about 95,000 people. In Amharic Arba Minch
means “forty springs.” The name refers to nearby fresh water springs. Arba Minch is the administrative,
trade, health, and educational center of the Zone and acted as the researcher’s home base during data
collection. The four villages surveyed in this study were: Ochollo Lantie, Channo Dorga, Kolla Shellie and
Genta Kanchama Ochollie. The villages were chosen because they were villages the organization
facilitating the research was familiar with and according to Vita were typical of villages in the area. All four
villages were rural communities where nearly every family works in agriculture.
3.4.2) Sampling Strategy
The researcher had originally asked if there were lists of adult residents of the four villages included in the
study so that residents could be randomly chosen to participate in the study. Such lists do exist; however,
it was made clear to the researcher that he would not have access to those lists, and it would not be
possible to randomly choose respondents. The organization facilitating the research spoke with village
leaders to ask if they could find adult farmers in their communities willing to participate in this study. The
researcher was promised a mix of men and women from different adult age groups but beyond that it
was out of the researcher’s control. It was determined that the best way to collect the data was in an
interview format with Ethiopian data collectors. This left the researcher free to tour farmers’ fields and
observe farmer practices. It also provided the researcher with the opportunity to have informal
conversations with farmers about climate change, agriculture and the challenges farmers face.

16
3.5) Study Instrument
3.5.1) Introduction to Questionnaires
Studies are only as good as the data they use for analysis. When a study uses surveys a questionnaire has
to be well designed so that the researcher gets the information they are looking for and produces good
quality data for analysis. Design of a questionnaire can be split into 3 parts. First determine the questions
to be asked, second select the question type for each question and lastly design the question sequence
and overall questionnaire layout. In the design of questions it’s important to be concise and unambiguous,
avoid leading questions and ask for precise answers (Burgess 2001).
3.5.2) Research Question Design and Development
The questionnaire design for this study was based on suggested questions in a paper by Bandyopadhyay,
Wang and Wijnen entitled Improving Household Survey for Understanding Agricultural Household
Adaptation to Climate Change: Water Stress and Variability. The paper was written because the authors
recognized the difficulty of collecting data on agricultural practices, adaptations and perceptions of
climate change in developing countries. The questionnaire used for this study combined questions from
that paper with some of the researcher’s own. The researcher then presented his questionnaire to his
dissertation supervisor for suggestions, and some modifications were made.
The questionnaire was piloted on a number of people to get a sense of how long it would take to complete
and if any issues arose. The questionnaire was then sent to a number of people at the organization
facilitating the study for feedback. Lastly the survey was piloted by the data collection team in Ethiopia on
Vita staff before using the questionnaire in the field.
3.5.3) Research Questionnaire Dissemination and Return
The researcher was hoping that 60 people from the four villages included in the study would be surveyed
in a one on one interview format. At the completion of data collection 81 people from the four target
villages had been surveyed.

17
3.6) Data Analysis
After completing the data collection process the researcher moved on to the data analysis phase of the
research. Data analysis was performed using Microsoft Excel and Stata. Using this combination of
statistical analysis software the researcher first looked at summary statistics from the collected data to
get a sense of the information collected. The researcher then used the statistical software to explore
relationships between variables within the data. The results of the data analysis can be found Chapter 4.
3.7) Limitations of the study
The intent of this study was to use stratified random sampling in choosing questionnaire respondents. As
previously identified, according to the organization facilitating the study, random sampling was not a
possibility. Thus there was little the researcher could do but hope that his sample reflected the
demographic make-up and opinions of farmers in the villages included in the study.
The study was also severely limited by time. The researcher only had a window of three weeks to collect
data and hold focus groups. Given the schedules of everyone involved this was a difficult task. With more
time and money it would have been possible to survey a much larger number of farmers in the target
villages.
Lastly the researcher did not have the time or language skills to collect the data independently. The
researcher had a team working for him which was not under his direct supervision most of the time. The
researcher was dependent on his data collectors to accurately record farmer responses. The researcher
was also dependent on a translator for all informal conversations with farmers in the target villages.

18
Chapter 4: Results
4.1 Recorded data on temperature and precipitation in Ethiopia
The government of Ethiopia is concerned about the impact climate change is having and will continue to
have on its people, economy and ecosystems. Consequently the Ethiopian government has put significant
capital investment into researching the current and projected impacts of climate change in Ethiopia. Much
of that research was used to write Ethiopia’s Climate Change National Adaptation Programme of Action
(NAPA.) NAPAs are a mechanism of the UNFCCC designed to help least developed countries identify their
priority adaption needs to climate change and express those needs to those who can offer assistance.
Ethiopia’s NAPA summarizes observed trends in temperature and rainfall and uses a number of different
climate models to make projections about the future impacts of climate change. Looking at the
government’s data with regard to temperature a clear and distinct trend emerges. Figure 4.1.1 shows a
warming trend from 1951-2005 and that trend has continued to present. The annual minimum
temperature in Ethiopia has been increasing .37°C every decade.
Figure 4.1.1: Year to year variability of annual minimum temperature over Ethiopia expressed in temperature
Source: National Meteorological Services of Ethiopia
Over that same time period analysis of rainfall in Ethiopia has revealed that rainfall totals across the
country have remained more or less constant but rainfall patterns have become more erratic and
unpredictable at a local level. Figure 4.1.2 clearly demonstrates the year to year variation in rainfall
Ethiopia has been experiencing.

19
Figure 4.1.2: Year to year variability of annual rainfall and trend over Ethiopia expressed in normalized deviation
4.2 Climate model predictions for Gamo Gofa Zone
Figure 4.2.1 is a visualization of predicted changes in temperature across Ethiopia as a result of climate
change. The red arrows point to the boxes that encompass the area of this study. According to the results
of models run the mean annual temperature in Ethiopia will increase .9-1.1° C by 2030, 1.7-2.1°C by 2050,
and 2.7-3.4 °C by 2080. The predicted rise in temperature for Gamo Gofa Zone is 1°C by 2030, 1.8°C by
2050 and 2.9°C by 2080.
Figure 4.2.1: Composite (average of 19 GCMs) change in temperature relative to 1961-1990 normal for A1B emission scenario

20
Climate models were also used to predict future changes in rainfall. In Ethiopia rainfall is expected to
increase across the country. Rainfall patterns are expected to become more erratic. Ethiopia is a country
highly prone to drought events. In the past, drought has caused great losses of life in Ethiopia. The climate
models predict an increased risk for drought and flood events. Figure 4.2.2 shows the predicted change
in rainfall across Ethiopia. Gamo Gofa Zone is located where the red arrows are pointing and is expected
to experience net increases in rainfall but rainfall patterns are expected to become more erratic.
Figure 4.2.2: Composite (average of 19 GCMs) percentage change in rainfall relative to 1961-1990 normal for A1B emission
scenario
4.3 Participants in the study
81 farmers from four villages surrounding Arba Minch participated in this study. The villages included in
the study were Ochollo Lantie, Channo Dorga, Kolla Shellie, and Genta Kanchama Ochollie. Of the 81
people who participated in the study 54 were men and 27 were women. Their ages ranged from 22 to 89
with the average age being 45 and the median age being 42. For 72% of those surveyed primary school
was the highest level of education they had achieved. All of the villages included in the study were rural.
The average number of dependents claimed by participants was 8. The number of animals owned was
used as a proxy for wealth. On average participants owned 6 chickens, 2 goats or sheep and 4 cows. Given
the high number of dependents, the average level of education and modest number of animals owned by
participants, as well as personal observations, it was clear these villages were not wealthy. The residents
of these villages are nearly all subsistence farmers. 80 of 81 participants in this study said that farming
was their primary source of income.

21
4.4 Perceptions about climate change
95% of those surveyed said that they were aware of the concept of climate change but their understanding
of climate change differed significantly. 100% of those surveyed said that they believe climate change is
impacting them. 95% of those surveyed believe climate change is having a negative impact on them. 90%
of those surveyed believe they will need to change their farming practices in the future because of climate
change. Table 4.4.1 shows participant opinion on what the biggest impact of climate change is. Results
indicate that both men and women believe that the biggest impacts of climate change are changes in
temperature and changes in rainfall. Only 1 person believed sea level rise was the biggest impact and only
1 person believed that flooding was the biggest impact. 5 people in the study thought drought was the
biggest impact.
Table 4.4.2 shows what the results were when participants were asked what the main cause of climate
change was. Results indicate that both men and women believe the biggest impacts of climate change are
deforestation and pollution from vehicles. Nearly 80% of those surveyed believe that deforestation is the
biggest cause of climate change. Only 1 person thought power generation was the main cause of climate
change.
Table 4.4.2: Participant opinion on the main cause of climate change
4.5 Perceived changes as a result of climate change
To understand participant perception about whether or not climate change is currently impacting them
farmers were asked a series of questions about rainfall, drought, floods, and hot days over the last 5 years.
Farmers in the area of the study plant their crops as soon as they can after they believe the rainy season
n % n % n % n % n % n %
Men 21 38.9 25 46.3 2 3.7 4 7.4 1 1.9 1 1.9
Women 15 55.6 11 40.7 0 0 1 3.7 0 0 0 0
Whole Sample 36 44.4 36 44.4 2 2.5 5 6.2 1 1.2 1 1.2
Sea level riseChange in temperature Change in rainfall Spread of disease Drought Flooding
n % n % n % n % n % n %
Men 42 77.8 10 18.5 1 1.9 0 0 0 0 0 0
Women 22 81.5 5 18.5 0 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Whole Sample 64 79.0 15 18.5 1 1.2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Deforestation Vechicles Power Generation Waste Agriculture Change in Land Use
Table 4.4.1: Participant opinion on the biggest impact of climate change

22
has begun. Planting too soon or too late can have a detrimental impact on crop yields. 86% of participants
believe they have received less rainfall in the last 5 years than previous experience. 70% of participants
said that the start of the rainy season has gotten harder to predict. Table 4.5.1 shows there is a lot of
uncertainty about how much rain farmers think they will receive in the next planting season. Nearly 60%
percent of those surveyed said they didn’t know how much rainfall they would receive in the next planting
season. After conducting a chi-square test on the men’s and women’s responses to how much rainfall
they believe they will receive in the next rainy season no significant difference was found in responses.
Table 4.5.1: How much rainfall participants believe they will receive in the next planting season (p-values from chi-square test)
*p-value not significant
Table 4.5.2 and table 4.5.3 show the opinions participants had about drought and floods. 58% of those
surveyed believe there has been less drought in the last 5 years than previously. 40% of people thought
there had been no change in drought in the last 5 years. With regard to floods there is a bit more
uncertainty but about half of those surveyed said they believe there have been less floods in the past 5
years. After conducting a chi-square test on the responses by men and women no significant difference
was found in their responses.
Table 4.5.2: Participant opinion on incidence of drought the last 5 years (p-values from chi-square test)
n % n % n % p
Men 13 24.1 5 9.3 7 13.0
Women 5 18.5 1 3.7 1 3.7
Whole Sample 18 22.2 6 7.4 8 9.9
NS
Too MuchNot enough Enough
n % n % n % p
Men 24 45.3 29 53.7 0 0.0
Women 8 29.6 18 66.7 1 3.7
Whole Sample 32 40.0 47 58.0 1 1.2
Less drought More drought
NS
No change

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Table 4.5.3: Participant opinion on incidence of flood events the past 5 years (p-values from chi-square test)
Participants were also asked about the incidence of hot days in the last 5 years as opposed to their
previous experience. Table 4.5.4 shows that about 30% of those surveyed believe there have been less
hot days than their previous experience. About 70% of those surveyed believed there were more hot days
in the last 5 years than their previous experience. After conducting a chi-square test on the responses by
men and women no significant difference was found in their responses.
Table 4.5.4: Participant opinion on the number of hot days in the past 5 years as compared to their previous experience
*p-value from chi-square test not significant
4.6 Farmer practices and adaptations to climate change
The survey yielded a good deal of information about current farmer practices and adaptations made in
response to changes in temperature and rainfall. Nearly all of the farming done in the study target area is
rain fed. There have been some small scale irrigation projects done in the target villages but those projects
have not impacted the majority of farmers there. Only about 30% of farmers incorporate crop residue,
mulching, green manure, or crop cover into their fields before planting. However nearly all participants
practice contour plowing and planting. About half of the participants in the study graze their livestock on
their land when it is fallow and about half of participants cut fodder from their land and hand feed their
livestock.
n % n % n % p
Men 17 31.5 26 48.1 11 20.4
Women 4 14.8 16 59.3 7 25.9
Whole Sample 21 25.9 42 51.9 18 22.2
No change Less floods More floods
NS
n % n % n % p
Men 0 0 16 29.6 37 68.5
Women 0 0 8 29.6 19 70.4
Whole Sample 0 0 24 29.6 56 69.1
No change Less hot days More hot days
NS

24
With regard to weather information nearly all of the farmers receive information about the forecasted
date of the start of the rainy season but there is a lot of uncertainty about the accuracy of that information.
Table 4.6.1 shows how often farmers receive weather forecast information. There is a great deal of
variability in how often participants received weather information. However the results indicate that men
are better informed about the weather than women. Nearly 60% of women surveyed never receive
weather forecasts.
Table 4.6.1: How often participants receive weather forecasts
One of the purposes of this study was to find empirical evidence that farmers are already making
adaptations to the climate change they are experiencing. Table 4.6.2 and table 4.6.3 show the results of
the survey with regard to farmer adaptation in response to long term shifts in temperature and rainfall.
The results of the survey indicate that both men and women are making similar adaptations to climate
change but men seem to be making adaptations at slightly higher rates of incidence. The five most
common adaptations in response to shifts in temperature and rainfall are: changing crop varieties,
planting shade trees, irrigating more, finding off farm jobs, and building water harvesting schemes.
n % n % n % n % n %
Male 17 31.5 12 22.2 5 9.3 9 16.7 11 20.4
Female 2 7.4 3 11.1 1 3.7 4 14.8 16 59.3
Whole Sample 19 23.5 15 18.5 6 7.4 13 16.0 27 33.3
NeverDaily Weekly Monthly Per season

25
Table 4.6.2: Adaptations made by participants in response to shifts in temperature
Table 4.6.3: Adaptations made by participants in response to shifts in rainfall
n % n % n %
Changed crop variety 39 72.2 18 66.7 57 70.4
Built a water harvesting scheme 13 24.1 2 7.4 15 18.5
Bought Insurance 0 0 0 0 0 0
Planted shade trees 37 68.5 17 63.0 54 66.7
Irrigated more 25 46.3 12 44.4 37 45.7
Changed from crops to livestock 2 3.7 0 0 2 2.5
Increased number of livestock 1 1.9 1 3.7 2 2.5
Decreased number of livestock 2 3.7 0 0 2 2.5
Migrated to another area 0 0 0 0 0 0
Found off-farm jobs 18 33.3 4 14.8 22 27.2
Leased your land 1 1.9 0 0 1 1.2
[Adaptation]
Percentage of households that [made adaptation] to cope with long
term shifts in temperature?
Men Women Whole
n % n % n %
Changed crop variety 23 42.6 12 44.4 35 43.2
Built a water harvesting scheme 10 18.5 3 11.1 13 16.0
Bought Insurance 0 0 0 0 0 0
Planted shade trees 22 40.7 6 22.2 28 34.6
Irrigated more 12 22.2 6 22.2 18 22.2
Changed from crops to livestock 1 1.9 0 0.0 1 1.2
Increased number of livestock 2 3.7 2 7.4 4 4.9
Decreased number of livestock 2 3.7 0 0 2 2.5
Migrated to another area 1 1.9 0 0 1 1.2
Found off-farm jobs 16 29.6 3 11.1 19 23.5
Leased your land 1 1.9 0 0 1 1.2
Pecentage of households that [made adaptation] to cope with long
term shift in rainfall?
[Adaptation]
Men Women Whole

26
4.7 Vita staff and government extension focus group key points
The Vita staff members and government extension agents who participated in my focus groups had
attained much higher levels of education than the villagers who participated in this study. Most had
multiple university level diplomas and a great deal of experience working in agriculture. Consequently
their knowledge of climate change was different from the average villager. In the focus groups participants
spoke accurately about the science behind climate change. They were aware of the adverse impacts of
climate change Ethiopia is experiencing currently as well as the impacts Ethiopia is expected to experience
in the future. The participants spoke about how climate change affects different parts of Ethiopia in
different ways and that because of the topography in many areas in the country climate change impacts
people in a small geographic areas in different ways. They said that in many places across Ethiopia rainfall
patterns have changed and the seasons are much harder to predict than they used to be. They said that
Ethiopia has been getting hotter and will continue to get hotter.
From their perspective the farmers in Ethiopia are not reacting fast enough to the changes that are
happening and this is hurting food security across the country and lowering farmer incomes. They said
that farmers in Ethiopia are very willing to change their practices if they are shown that new practices will
improve their soil and yields. The focus groups revealed that they believe two things are preventing
farmers from adapting to climate change faster. First, agricultural education is at the heart of the issue of
adaptation. They said that farmers need to be exposed to new and better farming techniques that they
can see with their own eyes. Only when they see that it works are many farmers willing to change. The
best way they said is to have demonstration plots run by experts so villagers can see the difference
between traditional techniques and improved techniques. The second thing preventing many farmers
from changing their practices is money. They said most farmers in Ethiopia are poor and don’t have money
to invest in their fields. They said in their work they try to teach low cost improvements farmers can make
but that there is a need for money from the government and NGOs to help farmers without access to
credit to adapt. They repeatedly said however that Ethiopian farmers are very willing to change their
farming practices if they are shown that new practices will improve their soil and yields and if changing
their practices doesn’t cost too much. A person in a Vita focus group said, “Farming is how rural people
feed their families and make money. If they can’t grow food they are in big trouble so they will change
with the weather.”

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Chapter 5: Discussion
5.1 Introduction
This chapter reflects on the findings of this study. It will consider the data presented in the results section
from the perspective of the research question, principle aim and principle objectives of this study. This
chapter will also consider the results of this study in the context of the literature.
5.2 Recorded data on climate change vs farmer opinion
Ethiopian government data (NMS 2007) and studies on climate change in Ethiopia show that Ethiopia has
for some time been experiencing climate change and that the impacts of climate change are expected to
get more severe (Di Falco et al 2012; World Bank 2006; Di Falco and Chavas 2009; DI Falco and Veronesi
2013; Di Falco and Veronesi 2014). With regard to temperature the Ethiopian government’s data shows
that Ethiopia has been experiencing a steady warming trend for over half a century. The results of this
study indicated that nearly 70% of farmers surveyed believe that the number of hot days in the past 5
years is greater than their previous experience. In personal conversations with farmers about
temperature, farmers always stated that today it is hotter than they remember when they were younger.
Farmers’ personal experiences with their climate are likely impacting their wider perceptions of climate
change. It is likely that 36 of 81 participants in the study identified change in temperature as the biggest
impact of climate change because the majority of participants in this study believe they are experiencing
more hot days today than they used to. Increasing temperatures have serious implications for agriculture,
water availability and human health. Increases in temperature mean that crops will require more water
and over time surface sources of water will decrease. That will increase the chances of water-borne
diseases spreading among both animals and humans (NIEHS 2010).
With regard to rainfall the Ethiopian government data shows that rainfall totals have been consistent but
rainfall patterns have become more erratic. Government climate models predict that the area this study
was conducted in will receive more rainfall in the decades to come, but that rainfall patterns will be less
predictable. When asked about rainfall there was a lot of uncertainty which is consistent with rainfall
patterns becoming less predictable. 70% of participants said the start of rainy season has gotten harder
to predict and nearly 60% of those surveyed did not know how much rainfall to expect in the next planting
season. The fact that the start of rainy season has gotten harder to predict and that the majority of farmers
do not know how much rainfall to expect in the next planting season has huge implications for local food
security. Studies in Ethiopia have shown that increased rainfall variability has negatively impacted crop

28
yields and increased food insecurity (Bewket 2009). The start date of the rainy season is a fundamental
piece of information that aids in decision making at a number of levels from the individual farmer to
government and inter-governmental organizations responsible for regional food supply (Kniveton et al
2008). If farmers are unsure about when the rainy season starts planting their crops becomes more risky.
Knowing the start date of the rainy season determines planting times. Planting too early could lead to
crop failure; planting too late could lead to a reduced growing season and reduced crop yields (Dodd and
Jolliffe 2001). Farmers may have to plant a second time if the seeds they originally planted do not get
enough rain. This could greatly increase the cost to farmers who lack excess capital. Some farmers in Africa
are planting early and late maturing varieties of crops on the same plot because of unpredictable rainy
seasons (Mary and Majule 2009). Farmers in Gamo Gofa Zone should be implementing similar strategies
to protect themselves. In Ethiopia small-scale subsistence farmers account for 95% of agricultural output
of which 75% is consumed at the household level (World Bank 2006). For 80 of 81 participants in this study
farming was their primary source of income. Farmers in this study rely on farming to feed their families
and earn money to purchase food in the lean times. Unpredictable rainfall patterns could have devastating
implications for their livelihood and that of their families.
One contradiction between the government data on rainfall and the results of this study was the fact that
86% of participants believe they have received less rainfall in the past five years than they had previously.
This contradicts the Ethiopian government’s data which says that overall rainfall totals have been
consistent. This could be explained by erratic rainfall patterns which have altered the rainy season. It may
seem to farmers like they have gotten less rainfall because it has not been as concentrated in their
traditional rainy season. Over half of those surveyed believe they have experienced less flooding in the
past five years. The fact that farmers have not experienced many recent flood events may be impacting
their perception of rainfall. This finding would be in agreement with many studies in Africa that have
shown that farmers’ perceptions may not always be supported by actual climate records (Slegers 2008;
Rao et al 2011; Kassie et al 2013). Gbetibouo argues that farmers place greater emphasis on recent climate
events in forming their opinions about climate change. This could be the case in Gamo Gofa Zone.
Another interesting finding from this study related to rainfall and temperature was that 80 of 81 people
believe there has been either less or no change in the number of drought events in the last 5 years. Given
that the majority of participants in this study believe that there are more hot days and less rainfall in the
past 5 years that finding was not expected. It is possible that this response too can be explained by greater
variability in weather patterns. The results of this study with regard to rainfall, temperature, drought, and

29
floods support the idea that farmers in Gamo Gofa Zone of Ethiopia have been experiencing climate
change.
5.3 Perceptions about climate change
95% of those surveyed said they were aware of the concept of climate change. From informal
conversations with farmers about climate change in the target villages it is clear that farmers’
understandings of climate change differed greatly. While some knew the basic concept of climate change
some attributed the changes farmers identified in this study to God’s will. The Ethiopian people in general
are religious and many people are of the opinion that there is nothing humans can do to change the
climate. This would be consistent with a number of studies in Africa (Mubaya et al 2012).
What participants were not in disagreement about was the fact that they are experiencing climate change.
100% of those surveyed believe climate change is impacting them and 95% of those believe the impact is
negative. The biggest impacts of climate change identified in the study were consistent with the
participants’ personal experience. The participants identified changes in rainfall and changes in
temperature as the two biggest impacts of climate change. When asked about the main cause of climate
change nearly 80% of participants said deforestation was the main cause of climate change. 18.5% of
people said that pollution from vehicles was the main cause. Only one person identified power generation
as the main cause of climate change. It is likely the participants’ personal experience is impacting their
perception of climate change. Deforestation is major problem in Ethiopia that the government has made
a priority to stop. Nearby the four target villages is a large national park patrolled by government soldiers
to prevent people from taking firewood. This finding would agree with a number of studies that found
that local environmental, socio-economic and cultural conditions influenced people’s perceptions of
climate change (Kassie et al 2013; Slegers 2008; Meze-Hausken 2004).
5.4 Farmer practices
The results of this study combined with the researcher’s personal observations while conversing with
farmers and touring their fields revealed a great deal about farmer practices in the four villages included
in this study. Irrigation systems are not available to the vast majority of farmers in this study. Farmers in
all of the target villages practice agroforestry but do not take advantage of all of the best practices. Given
the lack of large scale investment in irrigation systems, the predicted erratic rainfall patterns and
temperature increases there is a lot of room for improvement. This study also revealed that only about

30
30% of farmers are incorporating crop residue, mulching, green manure and crop cover into their fields
before planting. These practices could improve soil quality, soil moisture content and increase crop yields
(Omotayo and Chukwuka 2009). It was good to see that nearly all farmers in this study were practicing
contour plowing and planting.
There was also a great need identified for planting fodder crops and fodder trees. Agroforestry, livestock
and the interaction between these practices are crucial for the livelihoods of rural communities.
Agroforestry practices for the purposes of feeding livestock are increasingly important as natural forests
and woodlands are lost through deforestation and agricultural expansion (Dawson et al 2014). It was
apparent to the researcher that there was a need for farmer training on best agroforestry practices. Many
of the best practices identified in chapter 2 could be implemented on a larger scale in the target villages.
The results also indicated that there is a need to increase the amount of weather information available to
farmers. The fact that one third of farmers never receive weather forecasts is a bit shocking. The literature
has provided some insight into why some farmers do not use weather forecasts. In Africa weather
forecasts have always fallen short of meeting farmer needs in agriculture. There is a perception among
many farmers in Africa that government weather reports are unreliable. The forecasts are also often not
disseminated in a timely manner and use language that is difficult for subsistence farmers to understand
(AGRA 2014).
5.5 Farmer adaptations to climate change
This study revealed that farmers are indeed already adapting their farming practices in response to climate
change. This makes sense given the results showing participants are already experiencing climate change.
Farmers want to get the best output for the inputs they put into their fields. Adapting their practices offers
farmers the best possible outcome. As much of the literature states adapting to climate change can reduce
farmers’ vulnerability to climate change (Bryan et al 2013; Di Falco et al 2012; Mbow et al 2014; UNDP
2004; UNFCCC 2007; AGRA 2014). Farmers in Ethiopia have had their yields impacted by climate change
and are changing their practices to earn income and support their families (Bewket 2009). The incidence
of some of the adaptations among farmers are rather large. For example 70% of participants have changed
a crop variety and two thirds of participants planted shade trees in response to changes in temperature.
The results show that farmers have changed their practices more in response to shifts in temperature
than in response to shifts in rainfall. However, the top five adaptations they are implementing in response
to long term shifts in temperature and rainfall are the same. The adaptations being made in Gamo Gofa

31
Zone are consistent with common adaptations being made elsewhere in SSA (Di Falco 2014). The fact that
so many farmers are currently making adaptations to climate change explains why 95% of those surveyed
believe they will need to change their current farming practices because of climate change. The results of
this study support this study’s hypothesis that farmers in the Gamo Gofa Zone of Ethiopia are being
impacted by climate change and have begun making adaptations to adjust to the impacts of climate
change.

32
Chapter 6: Conclusion
This study sought to understand farmers’ perceptions of climate change, show that farmers in Gamo Gofa
Zone of Ethiopia are experiencing climate change, and identify adaptations farmers are currently making
in response to climate change. The study used a mixed method approach which entailed an interview
survey of 81 farmers from 4 villages, a focus group with government extension staff, separate focus groups
with the staff of a non-government organization working in agriculture in the study’s target area, as well
as personal observations.
The results of the study suggest that farmers in Gamo Gofa Zone are experiencing climate change and are
already adapting their farming practices. Though perceptions and knowledge of climate change among
farmers varied significantly the results suggest that rainfall patterns in Gamo Gofa Zone are becoming
more erratic. This has made the beginning of rainy season harder to predict and is increasing the risk to
farmers’ crops. The results also suggest that Gamo Gofa Zone is warmer than it was in the past. These
findings are consistent with other studies done in Ethiopia and the Ethiopian government’s data on rainfall
and temperature.
The study indicates that farmers know they have to change their farming practices to adapt to climate
change. That knowledge has led some farmers to begin to change some of their farming practices. From
the focus groups and personal conversations with farmers it is clear that farmers in Gamo Gofa Zone
would like to change their farming practices more, but that two things are preventing adaptation on a
larger scale. First, farmers would like more exposure to improved agricultural techniques from specialists
whether they be government extension staff or NGOs specializing in agriculture. Second, the lack of access
to capital is preventing farmers from investing more in their fields and adopting some new practices.
After having many informal conversations with farmers and agricultural specialists in Ethiopia about
climate change and agriculture two interesting areas of potential research were identified. First, in
Ethiopia religion is of critical importance to a large percentage of the population. The interview survey for
this study did not take into account the role God or religion play in farmers’ perceptions of climate change.
There could be some interesting findings there. Second, lack of access to capital is preventing many
farmers from using the best practices to make their fields more resilient to climate change. A study on the
potential of micro-finance for farmers in Ethiopia could be really important for the creation of programs
that support farmers making adaptations to climate change.

33
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Appendix
Appendix A. Questionnaire
1. Age:_____ Gender: Male Female
2. Marital Status:
a) Married b) Single c) Divorced d) Widowed
3. Is farming your primary source of income?
a) Yes b) No
4. How many people depend on your income? _____________
5. How many of each type of livestock do you own?
a) Goats/Sheep: ___________
b) Chickens: ___________
c) Cows: _____________
d) Donkeys: ____________
e) None
6. What is the highest level of education you attained?
a) Primary school b) Secondary school c) University/trade school
7. Does your community benefit from Vita’s projects?
a) Yes b) No c) I don’t know
8. Have you or your family benefited from Vita’s projects?
a) Yes b) No c) I don’t know
8a. If yes, to what extent have you or your family benefitted from Vita’s projects?
a) A lot b) Some c) A little

38
9. Have you heard of climate change?
a) Yes b) No
10. What is the biggest impact of climate change?
a) Changes in temperature b) Changes in rainfall c) Spread of disease (malaria, etc.)
d) Drought e) Flooding f) Rising sea level
11. What is the main cause of climate change?
a) Deforestation b) Pollution from vehicles c) Pollution from power generation
d) Pollution from waste e) Pollution from agricultural f) Change in land use
12.
How many times did you irrigate land
in the last dry season? (Write number
and circle unit)
Was there enough
water in the irrigation
system for your land
in the last dry season?
If no, did you use
any other sources
of water for the
crops on your land
in the last dry
season?)
If yes, what was
the second most
important source
of water for your
land in the last dry
season
Number Per Unit: 1- River/Stream
1- Season Yes Yes 2- Lake/Pond
2- Month 3- Well
3- Week No No 4- Boreholes
4- Day 5- Other
5- Other (below) 6- Not applicable
If 5:
How many times did you irrigate land
in the last wet season? (Write number
and circle unit)
Was there enough
water in the irrigation
system for your land
in the last wet season?
If no, did you use
any other sources
of water for the
crops on your land
in the last wet
season?
If yes, what was
the second most
important source
of water for your
land in the wet
season
Number Per Unit: 1- River/Stream
1- Season Yes Yes 2- Lake/Pond
2- Month 3- Well
3- Week No No 4- Boreholes
4- Day 5- Other
5- Other (below) 6- Not applicable
If 5:

39
13.
Have you ever
planted any cover
crop (to retain soil
moisture) while you
keep your land
fallow?
Have you planted any
fodder crop while you
keep your land fallow?
Does your livestock graze
on fallow when your land
is fallow?
Is the fodder from
your land cut and
carried to feed
livestock?
Yes Yes Yes Yes
No No No No
14. Do you incorporate crop residue, mulching, green manure, or crop cover before planting your
land?
a) Yes b) No
15. Did you use contour planting or contour plowing on your land?
a) Yes b) No
16. What is the main reason you choose the types of seed you do? (Maize, Teff, Sesame)
a) Only seed available b) Needs less water c) Pest resistant d) Disease Resistant
e) High Yield
17. In the last 12 months did you have access to communal fodder banks?
a) Yes b) No
17a. If yes, did you use communal fodder banks?
a) Yes b) No
18. In the last 12 months, did you need to move cattle to different grazing sites because of scarcity of
fodder or water?
a) Yes- For fodder and water b) Yes- Fodder only c) Yes- Water only d) No

40
19. Do you receive information about the forecasted date of the onset of the raining season?
a) Yes b) No
20. How much rain do you think you will get in the next planting season?
a) Not enough b) Enough c) Too much d) I don’t know
21) How often do you get weather forecasts?
a) Daily b) weekly c) monthly d) Per season e) Never
22. Over the last 5 years have you noticed a change in the amount of rain?
a) No change b) Less rain c) More rain
23. Over the last 5 years have you noticed a change in the number of droughts?
a) No change b) Less frequent droughts c) More frequent droughts
24. Over the last 5 years have a noticed a change in the number of floods?
a) No change b) Less frequent floods c) More frequent floods
25. Over the last 5 years has the number of hot days changed?
a) No change b) less hot days c) more hot days
26. Has the start of the rainy season become harder to predict?
a) Yes b) No

41
27.
[Adaptation]
Has any member of
your household
[made adaptation] to
cope with long term
shifts in
temperature?
Has any member of
your household [made
adaptation] to cope
with long term shift in
rainfall?
Yes…..1 No…….2 Yes…..1 No…….2
Changed crop variety
Built a water harvesting scheme
Bought Insurance
Planted shade trees
Irrigated more
Changed from crops to livestock
Increased number of livestock
Decreased number of livestock
Migrated to another area
Found off-farm jobs
Leased your land
28. Do you believe climate change is impacting you?
a) Yes b) No
28a. If yes, is the impact positive or negative?
a) Positive b) Negative
29. Do you believe you will need to change your farming practices because of climate change?
a) Yes b) No

Hennessy, John Dissertation Final Version

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