House view slides wix test

Editor's Notes

• #5: See above- updated for you.
• #7: See above- updated for you.
• #8: See above- updated for you.
• #9: See above- updated for you.
• #10: Insert the Top 40 with the forecast in place of this graph - Then insert the 41-100 with the same forecast
• #15: Over the next 9 months the market things interest rates will remain stable
• #16: Amend these points and also insert the graph with the Emerging market vs developed markets
• #17: Find new graph to replace this one – World government bank
• #31: Where do you find the information for this graph? And be sure to insert all of the disclaimers
• #32: Where do you find the information for this graph? And be sure to insert all of the disclaimers
• #33: Where do you find the information for this graph? And be sure to insert all of the disclaimers
• #34: Leading indicators - These types of indicators signal future events. Bond yields are thought to be a good leading indicator of the stock market because bond traders anticipate and speculate trends in the economy (even though they aren't always right). New housing starts, money supply, and M2 are considered good leading indicators. Lagging indicators - A lagging indicator is one that follows an event. The importance of a lagging indicator is its ability to confirm that a pattern is occurring. Unemployment is one of the most popular lagging indicators. If the unemployment rate is rising, it indicates that the economy has been doing poorly. Another example of a lagging indicator is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures changes in the inflation rate. Coincident indicators - These indicators occur at approximately the same time as the conditions they signify. Rather than predicting future events, these types of indicators change at the same time as the economy or stock market. Personal income is a coincidental indicator for the economy: high personal income rates will coincide with a strong economy. The gross domestic product (GDP) of an economy is also a coincident indicator.
• #35: Leading indicators - These types of indicators signal future events. Bond yields are thought to be a good leading indicator of the stock market because bond traders anticipate and speculate trends in the economy (even though they aren't always right). New housing starts, money supply, and M2 are considered good leading indicators. Lagging indicators - A lagging indicator is one that follows an event. The importance of a lagging indicator is its ability to confirm that a pattern is occurring. Unemployment is one of the most popular lagging indicators. If the unemployment rate is rising, it indicates that the economy has been doing poorly. Another example of a lagging indicator is the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which measures changes in the inflation rate. Coincident indicators - These indicators occur at approximately the same time as the conditions they signify. Rather than predicting future events, these types of indicators change at the same time as the economy or stock market. Personal income is a coincidental indicator for the economy: high personal income rates will coincide with a strong economy. The gross domestic product (GDP) of an economy is also a coincident indicator.
• #45: Over the last year inflation has decreased quite markedly from 6.6% in January 2017, to 4.6% in November 2017. We expect the rate of the decrease in the inflation rate to decelerate at this levels The higher sovereign funding costs (following the downgrades) will pass through the economy, and serve as a structural tailwind for capital pricing and inflation. Fortunately however, the stronger Rand will support lower import costs and reduce near term inflationary pressure on that front. The drought in the Western Cape remains a concern, not only to the primary sectors, but also the secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy. The market seems to be expecting some rate cuts in the coming year, which will become increasingly likely if inflation falls below 4%. It is to be expected however that the MPC will remain cautious while there remains many uncertainties that could impact inflation numbers quite dramatically. Simultaneously we expect that the MPC will focus on the sustainability of the downward trend seen in prevailing inflation numbers. PMI numbers have beard testimony to the weak economic climate to which consumers have been exposed to. The PMI leading indicator continues to forecast lackluster levels of growth for South Africa. Despite some fairly precarious growth numbers the domestic unemployment rate remained stable in 2017. a silver lining around a very dark cloud. Jobs will have to be generated if meaningful and sustainable change is to be expected on multiple fronts from growth to poverty to education. It should also be mentioned that although the unemployment rate has been stable, the existing level is the highest peak since September 2003. Unfortunately, the weaker Rand did not help to reduce the current account deficit. The uncertainties witnessed regarding political uncertainty, obviously also impacts policy uncertainty and business and investor confidence.
• #46: The global synchronised growth story seems largely intact, barring a few exceptions in emerging markets (including South Africa). Most PMI numbers are not only above 50, indicating expansion in the economy, but are also trending upwards Large parts of Europe is exhibiting PMIs above 60, which indicates extremely robust growth
• #48: 30 Sep 2017 We are amidst a strong recovery in the global markets lead by a healthy combination of key players in both the developed and emerging markets. US growth is now at its highest level since 2014, when growth was coming of a low base in a weak economy The existing growth is of a higher base in a much stronger economy, which boads well for the depth of the strength of the US economy, but should simultaneously also not be considered to continue with its existing acceleration. As the economic growth matures in the current cycle we should expect growth to take place at a slower pace than what we fitness in recent years.
• #49: 30 Sep 2017 As expected the Fed proceeded with its rate hikes during the course of 2017 We maintain our view that the cycle is set to continue and that investors ought to be very cautious and selective in US debt markets.
• #50: Insert the Top 40 with the forecast in place of this graph - Then insert the 41-100 with the same forecast
• #51: 30 Sep 2017 The de was not the only developed market central bank to take a firmer stance on monetary policy: the BoE increased Uk rates by 0.25% to 0.50% during November last year. Some would argue that this was perhaps a bold move with the background marked with Brexit uncertainties.
• #54: Amend these points and also insert the graph with the Emerging market vs developed markets
• #55: Amend these points and also insert the graph with the Emerging market vs developed markets