How CBO Promotes Integrity in Its Analyses

Congressional Budget Office
How CBO Promotes
Integrity in Its Analyses
Presentation at a Seminar Organized by the
Association for Integrity and Responsible Leadership in
Economics and Associated Professions
January 8, 2017
Keith Hall
Director

1CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE
CBO was created by the Congressional Budget
and Impoundment Control Act of 1974.
It provides analysis of budgetary and
economic issues that is objective and
impartial. The agency is strictly nonpartisan.

CBO’s Staff

The Director is appointed jointly by the
Speaker of the House and president pro
tempore of the Senate.
CBO has about 235 employees, who are
hired solely on the basis of professional
competence, without regard to political
affiliation. Most have advanced degrees.

CBO’s Products

 Baseline budget projections and economic
forecasts covering the 10-year period used in the
Congressional budget process
 Long-term budget projections
 Cost estimates of legislation, including analyses
of federal mandates
 Analysis of the President’s budget (including its likely
economic effects and their budgetary feedback)
 Scorekeeping for enacted legislation
 Analytic reports examining specific federal
programs, aspects of the tax code, and budgetary
and economic challenges

CBO’s Estimates

CBO’s estimates focus on the next 10 years
but sometimes look 20 years ahead or
more.
They are meant to reflect the middle of
the distribution of possible outcomes.

The estimates incorporate behavioral
responses to the extent feasible, on the
basis of the available evidence.
They are open to new information and
may change as a result.
They include explanations of the analysis
to the extent feasible.

Maintaining the
Credibility of CBO’s Work

CBO does not
 Make policy recommendations
 Write legislation
 Implement programs or regulations
 Enforce budget rules
 Evaluate the historical performance
of government programs

CBO is committed to providing information
that is
 Objective—representing not the
personal opinions of CBO staff but the
consensus and diversity of views of
experts from around the country
 Insightful—applying the best new
evidence and ideas as well as the
lessons of experience

To ensure objectivity
 CBO’s analysts carefully examine the
relevant research literature and data
 CBO enforces strict rules to prevent
its employees from having financial
conflicts of interest and to limit its
employees’ political activities

CBO’s analytic reports
 Go through rigorous internal review
by many people at different levels in
the organization
 Incorporate feedback, when that is
practical, from outside experts with a
broad range of views who specialize
in the issue at hand

CBO aims to make its analysis transparent
in many ways, including
 Explaining the revisions to its major
economic and budget projections
 Describing the uncertainty of its
projections and quantifying that
uncertainty when appropriate
 Evaluating the projections
 CBO’s Revenue Forecasting Record
 CBO’s Economic Forecasting Record: 2015 Update

A Panel of Economic Advisers improves
CBO’s understanding of economic
research, macroeconomic developments,
and economic policy.
A Panel of Health Advisers improves CBO’s
understanding of health research and of
developments in health care delivery and
financing.

Members of CBO’s panels of advisers
 Are widely recognized experts on a
range of issues
 Have a variety of backgrounds, areas
of knowledge, and experience
 Join periodic meetings at CBO and
provide their views between
meetings via email exchanges and
telephone calls

How CBO Promotes Integrity in Its Analyses

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