HOW KENYA CONTRIBUTED TO OPPOSITION FAILURE IN TZ
- 1. 1 | P a g e HOW KENYA CONTRIBUTED TO OPPOSITION FAILURE IN TZ Tanzanians find it unthinkable, even abnormal, that someone suspected of committing mass murder should wait to be told to quit power. They find it unnatural that such a person should contemplate to seek even the post of being a village elder. In their campaigns for this year’s presidency in Tanzania, the opposition made one fundamental mistake citing Kenya as a beneficiary of change and example of democratic progress. Indeed, many Kenyans swamped the country as opposition assisting activists, blogger and resource persons, complete with professional poll distorters. So the Tanzanian opposition leaders’ warnings to the government in case of election rigging were stridently Kenyan, intimidating and militant. A new element of recklessness and threats to violence seemed to permeat the deliberately quiet and studious atmosphere that is the Tanzanian political scene. It was made worse by the suspicion that the government candidate was a crony of Kenya’s opposition chief Mr. Raila Odinga. The Kenya agents of change and their acolytes in Tanzania went overdrive. But the Kenya that was enthusiastically being dangled as an example of freedom and change simply baffled the Tanzanians with the kind of news emanating from within its borders, otherwise. When a country cannot pay its public servants salaries comfortably it is on the path to a failed state. Where was the relevance if they were to imitate a country which by all intents and purposes was suspected by the whole world to be broke? It could not have been a worse time for comparison with a neighbouring country. On top of this Tanzanians had been yelled at over the decades by their founding fater of the nation, J. Nyerere, that Kenya was a “man –eat – man society.” full of Kupe, “parasites,” Ukoloni mamboleo “neo- colonialism” and mabepari “exploiters.” In nearly equal measure, there has been also secret admiration of Kenya. The skyscrapers of Nairobi and its fast-paced lifestyle, the naughty and skimpy ladies dressing in Kenya towns, the general lack
- 2. 2 | P a g e of patience in tackling almost all issues, have left most Tanzanians rather astonished. To some of them there was something rather bold and heroic about the Kenyan. Even Mwalimu Nyerere used to say, “There is no need to go to America or Britain. You just go to Nairobi and you are already there.” It is therefore no wonder that Tanzanian opposition and even the government side, consulted Kenyans on a number of issues. Indeed, even from the colonial times, Kenya and Nairobi in particular has been held by Tanzanians to be rather unique and exemplary. It was really the hallmark of Nyerere’s strength of character and assiduity that he managed to dissuade Tanzania from hero- worshipping Kenya. So during this years’ election campaign, the relevance of Kenya was revisited and it took many observers aback inside and outside Tanzania. Unfortunately, Kenya was found out to be sorely wanting, and Nyerere was vindicated. Why, the Kenya being touted as an example had degenerated almost into a banana state, where teachers cannot be paid salaries, corruption is rampant and “truth,” so dear and central in the life of Tanzanians, is easily dismissed and almost non-existent. Under these circumstances, there was no way Tanzanians could be convinced to vote for change, and deal with CCM the way Kenya dealt with it founding party Kanu. Certainly, in so many ways Tanzanians showed their desire for genuine change, having largely been disillusioned by the legendary party CCM. But it is was paradoxical all through. The opposition or change leader in the campaigns, Mr. Edward Lowassa, had been compelled to quit being prime minister due to corruption. Had Mr. Lowassa lived in Kenya, he would have been promoted instead. So Tanzanians were somehow confused, to find out that the corruption they vigorously wanted to fight had blighted even their anti-corruption torch bearer. Something was really not adding up for them, and the government establishment led by the winner Dr. John Magufuli repeatedly struck on this note. Because in Kenya such things do not impede a candidate’s progress, Kenyans scheming for Lowassa did not consider it a factor. Their optimism was sky high. Tanzanians are not known for outright theft or mugging. But they can be smoothly well-heeled in corruption, what they call rushwa. Even the
- 3. 3 | P a g e larger-than –life Nyerere could not diagnose and cure it. In many ways, corruption has steeply stunted the growth of Tanzania. In talking about change they meant quitting corruption. But Kenya at this point in time is the most corrupt country in Africa. Mr. Lowassa himself cannot be said to be corrupt to the standards of Kenyans as it was only one unfortunate incident which tarnished his name so, and which he has so far tried to explain away with some success. But when he was declared the presidential candidate for the united opposition, Prof. Ibrahim Lipumba of the CUF party excused himself off the opposition alliance citing matters of conscience. Another headache for the Tanzanian opposition was the credibility of the government candidate, Dr. John Pombe Magufuli. Though not a front-runner in the primaries, his character seemed to make way for him. Like Nyerere he is a teacher. He taught chemistry and maths and his students, especially in Maths, are said to still wonder what a performer he was. Even in government, where it is rather difficult to gauge someone’s performance, Magufuli is said to be famous for hard work, honesty and delivery of goods. He learnt early that the people were out for change and equally put himself forward as an agent of change. Needless to say, the CCM, Chama Cha Mapinduzi or Revolutionary Party, is in all corners of Tanzania. In several constituencies, the party’s candidates sailed through without any contest. Then there were former presidents, Ali Hassan Mwinyi, Benjamin Mkapa and Jakaya Kikwete forming a ring behind magufuli with huge political bases of their own. Then most of the small opposition parties that disagreed with the coalition UKAWA presenting Lowassa of Chadema, like the NCCR Mageuzi, sided with Magufuli. Then Lowassa and a host of opposition leaders, having defected from CCM, only recently. People in remote areas of the country could hardly remember the names of their parties, or even associate these leaders with the opposition, Lowassa having been minister in government until June 2015. The results would have been quite different if the opposition was entrenched and professional, led by a dynamic young leader. The president –elect would not have deprived them of their own fire and
- 4. 4 | P a g e agenda. Given the age and level of competence of Dr. Magufuli, Tanzanian opposition seems to have a long way to go, and the fire lit by the Kenya example might have to die down. This is a particular attribute to former president Kikwete and past leaders in general. Four successive great leaders in a row, with those left out equally good and electable, like Salim Salim, Sumaye, Lipumba, Wilbroad Slaa and even Lowassa. This is all attributable to Nyerere’s mentorship and is unheard of in other countries of Africa. This kind of background provides room for another milestone, an African political party being in power for 100 years. By: FREDERICK OWINO OYARO Email: frederickoyaro@gmail.com