How to build foresight into policy making
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The document discusses the importance of foresight systems for effective governance, highlighting that there is no universal solution for sustainable foresight. It presents findings from a project that examined various countries' approaches to integrating foresight into policy-making and emphasizes the need for a tailored, context-specific ecosystem. Key features for success include building a culture of commitment to foresight, creating collaboration among policymakers, and investing in local expertise.
How to build foresight into policy making
- 1. soif.org.uk SOIF Practitioners in planning, strategy and policy for future generations. Systems are cracking. We’re excited.
- 2. 2 Why think about the future Align around a preferred future Harness agency for that future Make future- aware decisions Surface and challenge assumptions
- 3. 3 Keep in mind… There are no future facts ….said Wendell Bell in Foundations of Future Studies All our knowledge is about the past but all of our decisions are about the future ….said Kenneth Boulding
- 4. 4 The project SOIF was commissioned to explore how different countries have developed their foresight systems, and to surface insights for how GOS and the wider UK system may want to develop their capacity and capability. This included • a set of eight case studies that would provide context and insights into how these countries integrate foresight in a comprehensive way across policy-making, drawing on a high-level literature review and semi-structured interviews. The countries: Canada, Finland, Malaysia, Netherlands, New Zealand, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates and the United States • a workshop with leading foresight practitioners from across the world, including those that have built and led systems within the policy-making sphere • SOIF’s own knowledge and expertise working to deliver foresight with impact across more than 50 organisations including multiple international bodies such as the UN, WHO and EU.
- 5. 5 What we found 1. There is no silver bullet for creating effective sustainable foresight in government. 2. Considering foresight as an “ecosystem” that includes the socio-cultural and political context of that nation is critical to ensure lasting integration into policy-making 3. A healthy foresight ecosystem creates demand for futures work, ensures quality supply and nurtures itself. 4. There is a common set of features that have helped countries to build future-oriented, resilient and adaptable foresight ecosystems. No one nation has all of these features and none on its own is sufficient for a sustainable foresight ecosystem. 5. The best mix for any particular country will depend on what is already in place, where there is appetite for activity and which aspects of the foresight ecosystem are most in need of development. 6. Developing the ecosystem can, and should be, done in phases that reflect the current system and the wider context
- 6. 6 An ecosystems approach to foresight 4 layers – each influencing the next and unique to the nation
- 7. Legislature Finland: Committee of the Future Set up in 1993, the Finnish parliament’s Committee for the Future considers future trends, particularly around science and technology policy. 17 Members of the Finnish Parliament sit on the committee and work to “generate dialogue with the government on major future problems and opportunities. Executive Singapore The Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) and Strategic Foresight Unit (SFU) were both established in 2010. The former, has a remit to coordinate foresight across public and non-governmental sectors to promote dialogue and the pursuit of mutual interests. Judiciary Netherlands In the Netherlands the court is an activist player and dynamic driver towards long-termism in the system. The Oslo Principles on Global Climate Change Obligations were a landmark set of obligations which called for government responses to climate change be mandated both morally and legally. Audit United States The Government Accountability Office (GAO) established the Center for Strategic Foresight in 2018 to support “identifying, monitoring, and analyzing emerging issues facing policy-makers”. Public and arm’s length bodies Finland In Finland, Sitra is an independent futures organisation and fund that is responsible for promoting the wellbeing of Finland. Sitra reports to Parliament and is not responsible to any particular governmental party. Citizens and Media Singapore Our Singapore Conversation (2012) facilitated dialogue with citizens around their fears, hopes and aspirations. It included 47,000 participants in 660 sessions at 75 locations and in 7 languages to include as many Singaporeans as possible from all walks of life. Examples of players in the ecosystem
- 9. 9 Foresight ecosystems operate in this context 3 priority activities for a foresight ecosystem
- 10. 10 And these ecosystems have specific features 4 features of a foresight ecosystem
- 11. 11 Culture and behaviour • focus on creating commitment • bring policy-makers into foresight • meet policy-makers where they are • support short-term work with long-term perspective • generate shared ownership and buy-in Structures • ave central units sitting in or near the heart of government • build and foster capacity in departments and agencies • work to have courts, elected officials and audit officials involved • put in place coordinating and sharing groups People • make sure that there are in-house skills and capacity • invest in the development of the next generation • have visible consistent champions • support and nurture people working in strategic foresight • build local and international experts Processes • work across all of government and use all government levers • deliver a small number of set piece activities • develop their own work • draw on diverse methods and disciplines • invest in ongoing research and innovation around strategic foresight Features of an effective foresight system* *from our research – more research may yield more / adjust the list
- 12. 12 What does this mean for you