How to Design the Future

HOW TO DESIGN THE FUTURE

Jeffrey Tjendra
Giacomo Bracci Helsen

The future is not predicted, but created.

The future of business relies on the changes in the industry.

If the only constant is change, businesses must
change to remain relevant in their industry.

Change happens in the industry as existing markets shifts
to an evolved market or when new markets are created.

Futures thinking is required to identify
where the industries are shifting towards.

Designing the future is the field of strategic foresight.

Strategic foresight identifies the future.
Innovation is moving from now to the future.
Design makes the future tangible.

The future is designed in 2 phases.

Phase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3

UNDERSTAND THE CONTEXT

DESIGN THE VALUE

ORCHESTRATE FOR GROWTH

Phase 1

Phase 2

Phase 3


DESIGN THE VALUE

ORCHESTRATE FOR GROWTH

The context needs to be understood through the
lenses of hindsight, insight, and foresight.

On hindsight, business analysis needs to be conducted to
use past patterns in order to predict emerging patterns.

Existing and potential users are empathized to identify
insights that reveal not only unmet needs, but latent
desires of what users do not know they want.

Implications of the future needs to be understood
by anticipating trends that will set the direction
of what might be in the future.

Phase 1

Phase 2


DESIGN THE VALUE

Creativity is used to imagine new ideas
that results in the creation of new values.

Values in the context of innovation are in
the form of products, services, experiences,
processes, business models, and policies.

The types of values are revealed from the
emerging patterns of business analysis.

Values are created to satisfy unmet needs and latent
desires of users based on customer insights.

Values are created in alignment with what will
happen in the future based on trends foresight.

Thus, the creation of values of what might be
in the future is the future created by design.

BID model is a framework that guides businesses on what and how to innovate and grow.

The future is designed through the act of block sequencing.

The Future of E-Cigarette
Case Study by Giacomo Bracci Helsen, Senior Innovation Strategist

The tobacco industry is on a decline. External forces such as tight
regulations and growing number of health-conscious consumers
are contributing to the shrinking of traditional cigarette market.
E-cigarette has emerged as a new market showing a double-digit
figures trend without clear market leader. Tobacco companies have
realized the market opportunity to transition from cigarette to
e-cigarette. Vaping will become the new smoking.

How might tobacco companies disrupt the status quo and shift towards a new model?

First, we’d like to understand the market landscapes of cigarette and e-cigarette markets.

Through desk research,
assumptions are made
clear that big tobacco
companies like Philip Morris
are experiencing a steady
decline in revenue.

It is evident through data
analysis that the global
cigarette market is on steady
decline as demand continues
to fall.

Meanwhile e-cigarette
market is at its early stage
set for rapid growth with
nearly double figures yearon-year growth.

Existing e-cigarettes products in the market are analyzed and understood.

E-cigarette as a product
is analyzed from the
perspectives of the
consumers. Pros and cons
are weighed and measured
by each impact. Thus
acquiring wisdom on the
representational state of
e-cigarette products.

TOOL / PROS-CONS CHART

Existing e-cigarette products
in the market are mapped
out to understand the
competitors, their products,
as well as the perceptions
imposed in each of them.

TOOL / COMPETITIVE MATRIX

Different types of
e-cigarettes are sorted into
categories and analyzed
further to provide a wider
understanding of the
existing market.


By now, we have understood
how each products have
multiple qualities, and
discovered the gap within
each categories.


Then we identify what activities are going in the e-cigarette market by current players.

There will be more activities
by companies as market
grows. Activities revolving
around e-cigarettes by
different companies
are tracked to view the
progression of the market.

TOOL / MILESTONE TIMELINE

We make sense of e-cigarette from different perspectives.

Strengths, weaknesses,
opportunities, and threats
of e-cigarette are charted in
the perspective of tobacco
companies to understand
how the new market is and
will affect them.

TOOL / SWOT ANALYSIS

Making sense of what causes
smoking addiction, we look
to understand the wisdom of
through the psychological,
physiological, and habitual
lenses.

TOOL / AFFINITY DIAGRAM

Identifying who are
the direct and indirect
stakeholders are necessary
to gain insights on who and
how e-cigarettes will affect
them and each other.

TOOL / STAKEHOLDERS MAP

The future is understood by knowing and anticipating what might happen.

Foreseeing possible future
events in both cigarette and
e-cigarette industries across
5 interdependent lenses.

TECHNOLOGY

This allows the anticipation
of actions and consequences
of when and what may
happen in the future.

TOOL / STEEP TIMELINE

Several trends are selected
to deep-dive and understand
its implication and
significance of the trends to
e-cigarette.

“I stopped burning
tobacco in 2009.”

“You’re not downgrading
from a cigarette. You’re
getting something more.”

“I don’t like buying mass
produced stuff,” “I like
buying something that
somebody built.”

TOOL / TRENDS DEEPDIVE

According to a recent Center for Disease control
report, schools across the country are reporting
an increase of e-cigarettes usage and school
administrators are struggling to create policies that
curb their usage or outright them. Among grade 6
to 12 students in the United States, those who have
ever used the product increased from 3.3% in 2011
to 6.8% in 2012 - Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention (CDC) (September 2013)


The device heats small pods of tobacco,
unlike most e-cigarettes that use liquid
mixtures of nicotine and synthetic
materials.


E-cigarettes are getting “smart”. The internet of things plays a role
in shaping the experience of vaping while data-mining relevant
data.
Two examples include Vuse and Smokio.

Smokio, an e-cigarette that tracks when you vape, where you
vape, the amount of vapour given off with each puff, what’s the
equivalent consumption of a traditional cigarette; it also estimates
how much your health has improved (blood oxigenation, hearth
rejuvation). Since the device is connected through bluetooth, the
mobile app records a variety of data about your vaping habits. The
user can also manage some functions of the e-cigarette itself such
as battery, for instance.

To understand how to move forward, we seek to understand aspirations for the future.

Knowing the perceptions
and visions of CEOs of
tobacco companies and
e-cigarette startups towards
e-cigarette validate the
desire that that e-cigarette
is a huge market opportunity
to dive into.

“There are many ways to enjoy tobacco, so it doesn’t necessarily
have to be cigarettes...”
- Akira Saeki, Executive Deputy President of Japan Tobacco

“Vaping is one of those new disruptive technologies that could very
well overtake the tobacco business and tobacco companies.”
- Kevin Frija, Chairman and CEO of Vapor Corp

“I do see and believe that e-cigarettes will over time start replacing
the cigarette...”
- Stephanie Cordisco, President of RJ Reynolds Vaping Company

“The single greatest growth opportunity for us lies in the
commercialization of reduced-risk products...’
- André Calantzopoulos, CEO of Philip Morris

TOOL / EXPERT OPINIONS

THERE IS A NEED FOR DIVERSIFICATION
For decades tobacco products have been extremely lucrative and there
has not been a sense of urgency for cigarette companies to diversify
into other markets. However, with their core products in the midst of
a structural, long-term decline, cigarette companies have little choice
but to expand into new territory and innovate the e-cigarette market.

The future is envisioned to create scenarios of what could be.

New products and services
are created as parts of a
system. The design of the
next generation e-cigarette
are part of an ecosystem of
complementary products
and services that add values.
Complementary and latent
products and services are
revealed to know where and
what to innovate in order to
create a holistic experience
for vaping e-cigarettes.

TOOL / DISRUPTION AMPLIFICATION MAP

Several future scenarios are
explored on what conditions
could potentially be the
next-generation e-cigarette.

FROM PLANTS TO
ALKALOIDS

TECHNOLOGY COMMODIFICATION

TOOL / SCENARIO PLAN

FROM SURROGATE TO ALTERNATIVE

Breakthrough ideas are imagined and designed that define e-cigarette innovation.

Scenarios envisioned are
converted into new ideas by
cross-pollinating ideas from
other industries and placing
metaphors to imagine the
future of e-cigarette. Hence,
ideas are generated by
asking “what if?”

TOOLS / CROSS-POLLINATION,
METAPHOR COMPARISON, WHAT IF

TOOLS / CROSS-POLLINATION,
METAPHOR COMPARISON, WHAT IF

Ideas are clustered and
improved into concepts.
Using system thinking
and visualization, the “big
idea” of what the future of
e-cigarette is created in big
picture.

DATA
MINING

TOOL / DISRUPTION AMPLIFICATION MAP

SMART
RECOMMENDATION

DATA
MINING

SMART
RECOMMENDATION

Multiple usage scenarios of
the big idea of the future of
e-cigarette is explored. Each
scenario is an opportunity to
create new values for specific
target users in the defined
area of opportunities.

TOOL / USAGE SCENARIOS

Ideas required to be evaluated to select what and when to implement.

Each scenarios are evaluated
on a set of criteria that
matters to cigarette
company. In this case, the
level of implementation
and impact matters on
which usage scenarios
will be executed, thus
allocating capabilities
and management system
required.

TOOL / EVALUATION MATRIX

The future of any industry is anything imagined that makes new sense,
as creativity is the ability to create new logic that makes better sense.

HOW WILL YOU DESIGN THE FUTURE?

BUSINESS INNOVATION DESIGN
HOW TO DESIGN THE FUTURE

Jeffrey Tjendra
Creator & Design Executive Officer (DEO)
jeffrey@businessinnovationbydesign.com
http://businessinnovationbydesign.com
@BIDmodel

How to Design the Future

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