How to Successfully Forecast on Amazon — Even During Year Three of Ecommerce Disruptions
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The 2022 Amazon & Retail Media Virtual Summit featured discussions on leveraging data trends in Amazon advertising, addressing operational challenges, and forecasting amidst ecommerce disruptions. Notable sessions included strategies on improving Amazon sales through market share data and utilizing omni-channel opportunities. Attendees were encouraged to engage in Q&A, download resources, and utilize insights gained for better inventory and cost management.
How to Successfully Forecast on Amazon — Even During Year Three of Ecommerce Disruptions
- 1. We’re on a break! We’re on a break! Thanks for joining the 2022 Amazon & Retail Media Virtual Summit! We’ll be back at 12:20PM PT | 03:20PM ET
- 2. 2022 Amazon & Retail Media Virtual Summit WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 16TH How to Leverage the Latest Data Trends in Amazon Advertising 10AM PT | 1PM ET The Most Pressing Amazon Operations Challenges — and How to Address Them 10:35AM PT | 01:35PM ET Using Market Share Data to Improve Your Amazon Sales 11:10AM PT | 02:10PM ET Amazon as a Brand Building and Demand Gen Platform: Emerging Trends in Amazon Posts, Stores, Video, and Streaming 11:45AM PT | 02:45PM ET How to Successfully Forecast on Amazon — Even During Year Three of Ecommerce Disruptions 12:20PM PT | 03:20PM ET THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 17TH The Time for Execution in Retail Media Is Now: Priorities for 2022 10AM PT | 1PM ET Walmart’s Omni-Channel Opportunities: Creating an Insights-based Ad Strategy 10:35 AM PT | 01:35 PM ET Scaling Growth Across Digital Grocery Marketplaces 11:10AM PT | 02:10PM ET Getting Your Products on (and then off) the Shelf: Working with Brokers and Creating Winning Advertising 11:45AM PT | 02:45PM ET
- 3. How To Successfully Forecast On Amazon Even During Year Three Of Ecommerce Disruptions
- 4. Today’s Logistics Kerry Mallett Senior Content Specialist, Webinar Recording & slides will be in your inbox by Friday Download relevant resources Join our chat and submit questions for live Q&A Log back anytime with same link Join our poll questions - including if you want to talk to our teams after!
- 5. WE’VE MASTERED THE MEDIA THAT MATTERS MOST Tinuiti is the largest independent performance marketing firm across Streaming TV and the Triopoly of Google, Facebook, Amazon. Employees Media managed Award-winning culture* $3B #1 1000+
- 6. Some of Our Clients Our Recognition For commerce leaders of today and the future
- 7. Our Speakers HELENE PINKERTON Senior Account Manager, Retail Operations GRACE O’HARA Sales Development Representative
- 8. Agenda ● Current challenges + expert recommendations on Amazon forecasting + fulfillment ● The tools to help you succeed with forecasting and fulfillment ● Amazon and beyond: omnichannel expansion ● Q&A 8
- 9. What is your biggest challenge with your Amazon business right now? ● Accurately forecasting ● Managing inventory ● Fulfillment challenges in general ● Something else - tell us in the chat! POLL
- 10. Forecasting and Inventory Management on Amazon 10
- 11. Factors contributing to uncertainty in forecasting in 2022 ➢ Shipping delays Staffing shortages Production bottlenecks Raw materials and manufacturing price increases Capacity constraints at Amazon FORECASTING AND INVENTORY MANAGEMENT
- 12. Optimize your inventory strategy FORECASTING AND INVENTORY MANAGEMENT Promote/re-price slow sellers and stop replenishment (pivot to dropship/FBM for tail assortment) Review sales velocity/reforecast quarterly Focus your efforts on top sellers and ensure always in-stock at Amazon Reserve inventory for Amazon Forecast your inventory need a year in advance by channel (depending on your lead times)
- 13. 13 Vendor Central Demand Forecast Your Purchase Order* Factors impacting Amazon demand forecast *Important: ASIN level demand forecast is not a PO forecast Traffic to ASIN’s Page (Organic, marketing) Seasonality Promotions Sales Performance History Retail Price/LBB Inventory Availability at Amazon Product Setup (detail page optimization) KEY Vendor-controlled factor Amazon-controlled factor Market factor Direct Factors Vendor Lead Time (VLT) Amazon Profitability Product Cost to Amazon Order Types (MOQ, Pallet Size, Refrigeration, etc.) Product Sourcing (is product available from distributors?) ASIN-Level Demand Forecast Production Planning
- 14. Amazon’s replenishment PO’s run like clockwork, though seasonal and stock-up buys aren’t uncommon. Consistent monitoring and a thorough understanding of the logistics network and subsequent limitations should help determine your course of action. ● Will you be confirming PO’s manually or via EDI ● How consistent is your supply chain? ● Fill/Kill vs Backordering ● Do you ship from multiple warehouses? ● Self-fulfilled or 3PL? If 3PL who arranges shipments? ● Prepaid or Collect? CONSIDERATIONS MUST DO’S ● Confirm PO’s within 24 hours ● If applicable, make adjustments to confirmed PO’s within 48 hours ● Ensure backordered PO’s are updated prior to shipping ● DO NOT allow PO’s to auto-cancel WHAT TO MONITOR ● Acceptance Rate ● Fill Rate ● Ensure correct availability acknowledgement codes are being used ***Repeated use of incorrect reason codes can result in ASIN suspension or being flipped to Obsolete ACCEPTANCE RATE FILL RATE +80% GOALS GOALS +95% PO Management 14 PLANNING, PO/SHIPMENTS, OPERATIONAL COMPLIANCE
- 15. 15 Seller Central Demand Forecast FBA Shipment Factors impacting Amazon demand forecast Traffic to ASIN’s Page (Organic, marketing) Seasonality Promotions Sales Performance History Retail Price/LBB Inventory Availability at Amazon Product Setup (detail page optimization) KEY Seller-controlled factor Amazon-controlled factor Market factor Direct Factors Shipment Lead Time (SLT) Profitability Order Types (MOQ, Pallet Size, Refrigeration, etc.) ASIN-Level Demand Forecast Production Planning IPI Score/Restock Limits
- 16. Tools to Improve Your Forecasting + Inventory Management 16
- 17. Access key customer data. Own the experience. Understand value and frequency of shopping behaviors. Must know your: Amazon Customers
- 18. Periodical comparisons. Visualize trend performance. Data-driven replenishment. Stay prepared with: Inventory Forecasting
- 19. At-a-glance dashboards. Advanced metrics. Create POs faster. Stay prepared with: Demand Planning
- 20. Prevents stockouts. Buffer for unseen circumstance. Increases customer satisfaction. Stay prepared with: Safety Stock
- 21. Current State of Ecommerce: 2022 Marketplace Extreme global ecommerce expansion. Surge in shipping hurdles and costs. Increased CAC costs.
- 22. Sourcing and storing inventory. Multiple locations and channels. Consistent customer experience. Overview Omnichannel Inventory Management
- 23. Overcome supply chain adversity. Benefits of utilizing new technology. Utilize warehouse flexing. Overview Omnichannel Fulfillment
- 24. Increase customer convenience, Rise in customer retention rates. Convert browsers into buyers. Omnichannel Fulfillment Business Benefits
- 26. Orderbots across sales channels. Multi-warehouse integrations & fulfillment. Flexible user interface. Case Study Viscata
- 27. In 2020 the client had issues with low confirmation/fill rate combined with unprofitable assortment for Amazon due to price matching. CHALLENGE ● After analyzing the existing assortment, historical sales, and basket analysis, merchandising and inventory strategy were developed to pivot into profitable ASINs, and create exclusive assortment for Amazon (new colorways, multi-packs for low ASP styles). ● Leaned into manufacturing and reserving inventory for Amazon for 2021 in conjunction with increased marketing and detail pages optimizations. ● Focusing on top sellers and profitable ASINs for Amazon resulted in a +130% YoY growth in 2021 and a +270% growth in Q4 2021 and a +30% increase in profitability per unit for Amazon. SOLUTION SUMMARY Brand sees growth + increased profitability after low confirmation and fill rate issues with Amazon due to price matching Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet +7K RESULTS -25% Pivoting into profitable ASINS + creating Amazon exclusive assortments allows brand to have significant YOY growth 27 YoY growth in 2021 growth in Q4 2021 +130% RESULTS +270% 27 27
- 28. What to do now Own your brand. Conduct research. Start today. Leverage Amazon reporting to review/monitor your sales regularly and adjust your forecast accordingly. Ensure always in-stock on top sellers.
- 29. Winning on Amazon today requires a whole lot more than just advertising. Schedule Your Consultation with an Amazon Expert
- 30. Q&A HELENE PINKERTON Senior Account Manager, Retail Operations GRACE O’HARA Sales Development Representative
- 31. 31 Stay informed on the future of digital marketing Visit our new content hub ➜
- 32. Thank you!
- 33. 2022 Amazon & Retail Media Virtual Summit WEDNESDAY, FEBRUARY 16TH How to Leverage the Latest Data Trends in Amazon Advertising 10AM PT | 1PM ET The Most Pressing Amazon Operations Challenges — and How to Address Them 10:35AM PT | 01:35PM ET Using Market Share Data to Improve Your Amazon Sales 11:10AM PT | 02:10PM ET Amazon as a Brand Building and Demand Gen Platform: Emerging Trends in Amazon Posts, Stores, Video, and Streaming 11:45AM PT | 02:45PM ET How to Successfully Forecast on Amazon — Even During Year Three of Ecommerce Disruptions 12:20PM PT | 03:20PM ET THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 17TH The Time for Execution in Retail Media Is Now: Priorities for 2022 10AM PT | 1PM ET Walmart’s Omni-Channel Opportunities: Creating an Insights-based Ad Strategy 10:35 AM PT | 01:35 PM ET Scaling Growth Across Digital Grocery Marketplaces 11:10AM PT | 02:10PM ET Getting Your Products on (and then off) the Shelf: Working with Brokers and Creating Winning Advertising 11:45AM PT | 02:45PM ET
- 34. See you tomorrow! Thanks for joining the 2022 Amazon & Retail Media Virtual Summit! Join us tomorrow at 10:00AM PT | 01:00PM ET