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- 1. T H E S H I F T O f PA S S E N G E R T R A F F I C The HIGH SPEED RAIL between ITALY and FRANCE is still heating up tempers after years of public debate. Let us do the math w hat are w e ta l k ing a b o u t w hen w e ta l k a b o u t. . . The new high speed railway between Turin in Italy and Lyon in France is part of the so-called “Pan-European Corridor 5”, planned by the European Union to connect Lyon to Budapest and, in the long term, Lisbon to Kiev. This project is listed among the 14 priority projects adopted in Essen in 1996 and requires the strengthening of the existing road and rail infra- structure, the creation of new infrastructure and the elimina- tion of bottlenecks, thanks to specific interventions. People opposing this project – which does not specifically require the use of high-speed, high capacity railway lines – make the objec- tion that over long distances (above 500-700 miles) trains are not competitive with airplanes for transporting passengers, nor they are with ships for freight. The main benefits of this Trans- Alps Corridor will be the reduction of some travel times, which would become those listed in the chart on the right. existing LINE Max. slope: high speed LINE Max. slope: 3,3% Base tunnel Drilled at an altitude between 570 and 750 metres above sea level, it stretches under the Ambin massif, which since the ‘60s has been considered rich in asbestos and uranium - whose dust would be dispersed into the environment as a result of the drilling work. high spee d rai l w ay: the n u m b ers THE scenario How many cars would the high speed rail take away from the road? Worldwide, fast trains have removed more traffic from skies than they have from roads: on the Milan-Rome route, the passenger traffic is now split in about 45% by train, 40% by plane and 15% by car. The impact on vehicular traffic is usually modest: here we show what happened in the Rome- Naples route after the opening of the high-speed rail in 2008. Passenger traffic between Italy and France relies over two motorway tunnels (Fréjus and Mont Blanc) and one railway tunnel (Mont Cenis). It amounts to about 2.5 million individual trips, in large majority on road. The impact of the high speed railway on the total amount of travels in the Piedmont region does not reach 1%; on a national basis, its relative weight is still lower: less than 0.1%. In order to allow convoys to keep cruising speed nearly double than standard speed, high-speed railway lines require special technologies for laying the rails (continuous welding), low slopes and large curve radiuses. A significant contribution to the reduction of travel times comes from the shortened path length allowed by the new, 53 km long tunnel. The costs and environmental impact of the tunnel, however, gather much criticism. 2,76million 2,74million Car passengers, Rome-Naples (The Turin-Lyon high speed rail) French section: 131km International section 12km Italian section 43km Settimo Torinese > San Didero Saint Jean Maurienne > Lyon San Didero > Saint Jean Maurienne New high speed rail: 254-265km(depending on the path in the French part) By car: By train: 2,5million Fréjus Mont Blanc Mont Cenis passenger T raffic in 2 0 1 0 ( R O A D + R A I L ) : t h in k Existing railway length: 287km 1,2% 023 energY words Christian Cavaciuti The trans-national company“Lyon- TurinFerroviaire(LTF)”,purposedly createdinOctober,2001,isincharge ofthejointItalian-Frenchsection ofthenewhighspeedrailway. ItsshareholdersaretheItalianand Frenchnational,stateownedrailway companies:RFI(50%)andRFF(50%) Source: Lyon Turin Ferroviaire, Politecnico di Milano, Unione Industriali di Torino, Università Cattolica, lavoce.info 2007: Car passengers, Rome-Naples 2009: meaning -1% Base tunnel length: 53km San Didero > Saint Jean Maurienne Underground total: 135km R
- 2. 15-20billion euro 600.000 and if we take stock... There are many cases where an in- crease in supply brings with it an increase in demand: the high speed rail supporters typically use this argument, the same underpinning official studies. Independent stu- dies, with more conservative esti- mates, are all in the red (often dra- matically). The strong variability of assumptions on traffic and costs (which are indeed assumptions) do not allow to draw safe conclusions; the historical data and comparison with other infrastructures do not appear to give evidence, however, in favour of this project. the F reight traffic in 2 0 1 0 : T H E costs the m o d a l shift but in Germany things did not go that way: +64% Between 1995 and 2008, the efficiency of the rail freight service made rail traffic increase by +85,6% But in the same ye- ars, the freight traf- fic on lorry rose by as much as laying 100 Mbit cables in the whole italy 10 15 40 billion euro billion euro lorries out of 1.500.000 freight traffic through the alps: 2000-2009 variations Or as building 3 bridges over the straits between and italY for the italian section alone francE ue Official estimate: Independent estimates: Most likely value: 023 energY Coming to freight, the total volume of trade between France and Italy amounts to 37 million tonnes per year, of which: - by road: 34,5 million tonnes on 1.500.000 trailers (constant since 2000); - by rail: 2,5 million tonnes on 225.000 wagons (-20% since 2000). The designers of the high speed line estimate a volume of freight traffic equivalent to 40 million tons for the rail only, well higher than the total traffic today. The existing railway line is presently used to just 38% of its potential. But even assuming that prediction to come true, you have to factor in the increasing competition from other tunnels, especially the Fréjus road tunnel whose renovation works were completed at the end of 2010 and that is now able to afford, by itself, these expected 40 million tons. The decline in freight traffic, moreover, does not seem linked to reasons of practicability, but to economical and historical reasons: the trading routes of Italy are changing, moving volumes (and money) from West partners to North and East partners. Germany has a rail network among the most efficient in Europe. Due also to a policy of strong incentives, between 1995 and 2008 the German rail freight traffic grew by 64%. A remarkable achievement, which however did not foster any reduction of road freight traffic, which indeed grew even more (85.6%)! As a result, the share of freight transport by rail decreased by 3%. Therefore, freight modal shift from road to rail does not seem to promote any significant reduction of vehicular traffic. In addition, the Lyon-Turin high speed rail would impact on the highway between Turin and France, where the flows are already modest; and not where the traffic is tipically congested: in the orbital road around the Piedmont capital city. On the costs side the dispute between supporters and opponents of the project is even fiercer. The high speed line Turin- Milan cost 62.4 million euros, versus 16.6 million of the Paris- Strasbourg line built in the same period. It is true that the Turin- Milan has been partly charged of the costs for the reconstruction of the highway, that runs parallel to it. In any case, the costs of infrastructural projects usually tend to rise substantially, even more so in Italy. Then one finds that the most likely cost figure (between 15 and 20 billion euros) is three times that for the bridge over the Strait of Sicily, and comparable to infrastructures that many consider more strategic for the Italian economy, as the broadband network. FrancE switzerland austria -42% +16% +14% -72% +1% +48% + + The shippings are shifting from east-west to north-south The high-speed rail makes the assumption that the freight traffic will shift from road to rail for an equivalent road + rail rail only