Icm aniacs report final

 Thesis 1
 Team 2 March 2013
 Objectives 3
 Strategy 4
 Holdings 5
 Realized Performance 6
 Key Themes 7
 Fund Focus 10
 Risk Factors 11
 Investment Going Forward 11
 Portfolio Sweet Spot 12
 Sectors 13
 Exit Strategy 14

Interim
 Trade Executions 15
 Stock Performance 16
 Sector Performance 17
 A Word from the Team 18
 Bibliography 19

Report
UK Leveraged and Diversified
Large Cap Alpha Fund
Our Investment Thesis
The UK Leveraged Diversified Large Cap Alpha fund from the lished companies, and for this reason we will only be investing
sterling group of portfolio managers, The ICMAniacs, seeks to in large cap stocks for this fund.
achieve medium term capital growth through a sector diversi-
fied portfolio of UK-listed equities. Furthermore we aim to strike the perfect balance between keep-
ing low-costs and diversifying risk by having an optimum level
As managers we believe superior performance can be ascer-
of portfolio concentration in context to the industry. The team
tained through a combination of top down economic and sector
behind the fund have no particular allegiance to the ideas of
analysis, strategic asset allocation and highly focused security
strong-form market efficiency, we believe markets trend and
selection.
exploitable seasonal anomalies continue to crop up.
We will be selecting companies listed on the UK stock ex-
As such we see opportunities for capital appreciation and mar-
change. As indicated by our analysis and screening, we will be ket out-performance by segregating the portfolio between value
buying a variety of companies from various sectors of the FTSE and growth stocks in liquid UK large cap equities. To eliminate
100, given this index makes up approximately 81% (FTSE, 2013) of the risk of serious capital loss, we have utilised market timing
company value in the UK market , gives ample opportunity to strategies as well as downside risk management.
invest in firms with exposure to domestic and international mar-
kets. Smaller cap stocks offer more concentrated exposure to the
UK equity market, however due to this and their lack of liquidi-
ty; they tend to be riskier investments than larger more estab-

RISK
We admit that markets in recent years have been increasingly correlated and driven by macro events, to manage such
systematic risk - we adjust our degree of market risk appetite accordingly through top down analysis.
1

Your Investment Team
George Cotton

Managing Director and
Portfolio Manager

Luke Bailey Victor Kerezov

Chief Economist
Quantitative Analyst

Nitesh Patel Lewis Freeman

Trade Execution Risk Associate &
& Performance Analyst Strategic Analyst

2

Holdings
The Portfolio weights and number of shares held on February 14th at the Fund’s inception.
Our Portfolio uses a 20% gearing ratio, and the reasoning behind this decision, will be explained further on.

Performance of each stock in the portfolio between February 15th and 11th of March

Source: Google Finance
5

Realised Performance
Some notable occurrences in the fund over the observa-
tion period were:
Portfolio Statistics Portfolio FTSE 100
IMI Plc, with an increase in share price of 13.18%. Dur-
Total Return 1.732 2.76 ing the observation period IMI posted similar profits to
the previous year, but the engineering firm also an-
Standard Deviation (Ann) 18.42 15.58 nounced that it planned to buyback around £175 million
of its shares. (Wembridge, 2013) The early outcome of this was
Sharpe Ratio 4.00 6.14 an almost instant 3.25% profit on the releasing of this
news.
Beta 1.12 1.00 Another big winner in our portfolio was,

Correlation 0.95 BAE Systems (BA), for similar reasons. The engineering
firm also announced a share buyback plan of up to £1
Bull Beta 1.55 billion. (Monagham, 2013) They also announced the largest ever
longevity insurance deal with another of our holdings,
Bear Beta 0.91
Legal & General. The announcement was a pension plan
Jensen Alpha -0.6012 arranged to insure the firms current pensioners against
financial risk as they are living longer than expected,
Information Ratio -1.84 covering around £2.7 billion of liabilities, leading to a
profit of 11.74% (Paton, 2013). Legal & General had several
Treynor Measure 0.66 other beneficial announcements that led its share price to
increase 11.10% during the observation period. During
this time it announced an extension of its existing rela-
tionship with Newcastle Building Society (Holweger, 2013) and
the announcement of its preliminary results for 2012,
announcing that their EPS rose 12% along with a full
year dividend growth of 20%.

The portfolio’s stock with the greatest absolute loss is
ENRC (Eurasian Natural Resources Corporation), with a
loss of 14.29%. The basic materials sector was one of the
worst performing sectors in the FTSE 100 during the
observation period. We believe that this is due to the fall
in oil and other commodity prices during that time, for
which the basic materials sector proved to be quite
strongly correlated.

The next largest loss sustained by the fund was
Aviva Plc. with -11.07%. There are a couple fundamental
reasons behind this loss. During the observation period
Aviva Plc. posted a loss after tax of around £3.1 billion,
after a £60 million profit last year. On the day of this
announcement the insurance firm then cut its final divi-
dend from 16p to 9p per share, a cut of 27%, meaning a
fall to 19p from 26p. This caused a dramatic stock value
drop downwards the following open which gave no op-
portunity to liquidate and the stock price failed to im-
prove or recover quickly following the drop. (Neligan, 2013)

6

Key Theme: UK, Eurozone, and US
Growth
Looking at the Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Man-
agers Index) as a measure of business confidence., and
a historically useful leading indicator. We can see
that:

The UK manufacturing sector saw an unexpected re-
bound in December 2012, the biggest pace of growth
since September 2011. This signals sold return to
growth for the manufacturing sectors, which has car-
ried on following through January and February, with
higher than expected growth in confidence. The PMI
is a known leading indicator as it shows confidence in
the market, and as such we are optimistic about the
UK economy going forward.

As for the Eurozone’s PMI, it has looked to have
largely bottomed out in the summer of 2012, and even
though it has yet to see growth in PMI like the UK and
US, it has at least stabilised and looks to slowly move
forward positively.

After the Great Recession many financial analysts
were expecting emerging markets to lead the world
economic recovery, but actually the USA economy
has experienced a strong improvement stimulated by
its unconventional monetary policy tools and huge
fiscal stimulus. The risks of inflation from the asset
purchases have actually been beard by the emerging
markets combined with their strengthening local cur-
rencies, EM have lost a bit of their competitive ad-
vantage. USA could be on the verge of a manufactur-
ing renaissance, and is likely to continue to be the
driving source of innovation and entrepreneurialism.
US equities have become a de facto safe haven in the
market with the emerging markets slowdown and the
Euro zone debt crisis.

As of December 2012, the US achieved a 7 month
high in the Manufacturing PMI, reflecting a solid ex-
tended period of expansion. A reported increase in
new orders for 20% of firms, shows an accelerating
pace of growth which in turn following by approxi-
mately 12% of firms hired additional staff, which will
be explained shortly as to why this is a very positive
indicator for the future.

Source: Markit Economics

7

Key Theme: US/EM Growth Contd.
After the announcement of newest round of asset purchases in September 2012 named by the media QE infinity, the Federal
Reserve has said that interest rates will remain at a record low zero until mid 2015 or until the unemployment rate hits the 6.5%
target level (Davidson, 2012). With the recent improvement in the US labor market and if we extend the trend line of the unemploy-
ment level we suspect that the 6.5% unemployment level will be reached
before expectations. The Commodity Price Index is strongly positive cor-
related to the US 10 year yields and if interest rates start going up, infla-
tion and commodities will pick up as well. We don’t really expect that
China will enter into its own recession, because of the amount of tools
their policymakers have (currently their interest rate is at 6%). The Chi-
nese are becoming more liberal and want to develop their capital markets,
which will stimulate the growth in country and Asian continent. Emerging
markets have an expanding middle class and in the coming years their
GDP is going to be sustained by the rapidly growing consumption. That is
why we have decided to overweight the basic resources and healthcare
sectors, as growth in this sector will be good going forward as the wealth-
ier middle classes can afford more healthcare products and services.

A Map For The Road Ahead
The below is an analogue study of the last 10 years of UK consumer confidence overlaid onto consumer confidence from 1986 on-
wards. This provides us with a compelling perspective of how consumer expectations have reacted in a similar environment stimulated
by the same economic shocks like a domestic housing bubble, a Financial crisis, a European currency crisis and a deleveraging cycle.
Consumer confidence is a leading economic indicator of the economy and behavioural economics proposes that social mood drives
financial, macroeconomic and political behaviour. In both periods the UK stock market traded in a narrow range that was followed by a
breakout to the upside in the early 90's interval. This gives us assurance in our strong bullish conjecture for the UK economy.

8

Key Theme: Central Bank Policy
The Federal Reserve, the ECB, the BoJ and BoE are all using the same policy cookbook of unconventional accommodative monetary
tools. The major central banks are fighting the deflationary pressures through asset purchases (QE and open market operations), The
aim of which is to lower yields and lower debt-service costs, as well as indirectly putting downward pressure on the exchange rate
thus stimulating exports. These asset purchases raise the prices
of financial assets (Government debt and mortgage securities);
as a result boosting financial wealth of the society with a com-
bination of lowering debt costs unconventional monetary poli-
cy actually increases consumption through the wealth effect.
Central banks have started to give forward guidance which
ensures interest rate expectations and price stability. As well
as quantitative easing central banks have used sterilized asset
purchases like the Operation Twist and Outright Monetary
Transactions that seek to further decrease long term yields.

The unprecedented monetary policy tools prevented the finan-
cial crisis from turning into a depression. Even though mass
media claims central banks have started currency wars that
can result in hyperinflation and another recession, the lessons
from the Great Depression are that the increase in the money
supply and the devaluation of currencies, i.e. the abolishment
GBP in USD between October 2012 to today. Source: Yahoo Finance
of the gold standard stimulate growth and provide support
for financial markets. Recent hawkish statements from BoE governor Mark Carney recently sparked a sharp devaluation in the pound
as demonstrated above, this will likely be a boon to exporting firms in our large cap stock universe.

Key Theme: Deleveraging
Many developed economies have been suf-
fering under the weight of a financial delev-
eraging at the private level as banks try to
shore up their balance sheets. The UK has
undergone significant reductions in house-
hold debt levels over the last 5 years, typical-
ly deleveraging cycles last 6 to 7 years.

The negative impact of this has been partial-
ly absorbed by ever increasing public deficits
bridging the gap, in spite of attempted deficit
reduction policies.

The end of this process and a resumption in
credit and bank lending to businesses and
individuals will be extremely beneficial.

Source: BullionVault via BoW

9

Key Theme: Fund Flows and the
Secular and Cyclical Bull Market
Markets have been trending up steadily for
almost 3 years, we have included an infla-
tion adjusted FTSE 100 as stock returns
typically lead inflation, but in the last 10
years they have lagged. Furthermore we
have firmly broken through this descending
trendline on the unadjusted FTSE, it is only
a matter of time before it is resolved to the
upside on this one as well.

On an even longer time frame if we ob-
serve the S&P 500, which often acts as a
proxy for equity markets around the globe,
we can see the index has moved sideways
for 13 years. It seems reasonable to suggest
Source: Yahoo Finance
we have been in a secular bear market
which could soon be coming to an end,
historically lasting 14.5 years.

Though equity mutual fund flows have
little predictive ability, they suggest that
market participants are far from being ‘all-
in’ following the recent rally in equity mar-
kets, as was the case at these prices at the
2000 and 2007 tops. In fact funds were still
leaving equity mutual funds as recently as
December 2012.

We believe the strong market momentum
in January were symptomatic of cash
quickly leaving the sidelines and pushing
markets upwards. Source: Ritholtz, 2013

Source: Investment Company Institute, 2013

10

Potential Risk Factors
Potential UK downgrade
For the past couple of months UK government bonds have been slated to have a downgrade looming, resulting in the loss of its covet-
ed AAA credit rating. Due to the strength of the prediction we believe that any negative effect has already been discounted by the mar-
ket. Therefore if the downgrade were to occur during the investment period it wouldn’t have an effect. Downgrades of other countries
in the past have been seen to not be detrimental to the country involved, often causing a rally in the market. This prediction then be-
came reality on Friday 22nd February, when Moody’s downgraded the UK credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 (BBC, 2013).

Italian election
The Italian election is likely to cause higher market volatility around Europe. The actual effect on the markets will depend on the result
of the election. Markets would likely rally on the centre-right party to winning the election due to tighter fiscal policies and funding
reforms. We believe that the election, whatever the result, will cause a blip in the markets due to the uncertainty, but ultimately won’t
have a noticeable effect on our portfolio (Fletcher, 2013).

UK triple dip recession
From forecasts on the UK economy made at the beginning of the year, the UK will likely avoid slipping into a triple-dip recession,
most forecasters believe that the UK economy will grow anywhere between 0.1%-0.3% in the first quarter of 2013. Along with this so
far in 2013 there has been a modest bull market. Both of these are positive indications of a recovery, although somewhat uncertain, and
a move away from a trip-dip in the UK (McBrides, 2013).

Investment Going Forward
In aggregate we believe the themes outlined earlier are positive for the equity markets and will enable opportunities for positive, infla-
tion beating returns for years to come. However it is as ever important to stay vigilant.

Research has shown there is a positive impact on returns of being able to accurately predict the timing of a recession. The table below
for the S&P 500 shows that in the past the ability to correctly time equity
allocation through the business cycle and predict a recession has a signif-
icant effect on the return that can be made, when compared to buy and
hold investors. It also shows that even if the timing isn’t completely ac-
curate, the return that can be made still greatly exceeds the returns of
those that buy and hold. The recent announcement of the avoidance of a
triple dip recession in the UK, and the potential for growth in the future
will ring positively in equity markets.

Our positive outlook for the UK economy has been a driving force in our
decision to leverage our market exposure upwards by 20%. We believe
we are currently in the middle of a strong bull market and taking full
advantage of this at was an opportunity we could not pass up,.

Bank and other corporate balance sheets are visibly improving from deleveraging, as well as
a reduction in tail risk thanks to hasty sovereign debt bailouts, which allows for an excellent
entry point into large cap UK equities.

11

The Portfolio Sweet Spot
The ICMAniacs feel that a mix of shares which fulfil all three characteristics will provide superior risk adjusted re-
turns for the fund and its clients.

For finding equities with significant price momentum and growth we screened for stocks trading above their 200 day sim-
ple moving average and a track record of exemplary earnings per share growth. We used the 200 day moving average as it
has been empirically shown in Faber’s academic paper “A quantitative approach to asset allocation”, to be a valid risk re-
duction technique with little adverse impact on return.
The remaining half of our equity allocation was
dedicated to stocks exhibiting solid value char-
acteristics. One of the screening measures for
value stocks we used price to cash flow as it is a
measurement of the financial health of a compa-
ny and its liquidity. Price to cash flow is a ratio
preferred by value investors compared to the P/
E because it cannot be easily manipulated by
non-cash factors like depreciation. The price to
cash flow ratio is independent of the deprecia-
tion metrics thus allowing investors to compare
companies without having to deal
with varying accounting principles
or earnings manipulation.

We ranked all the FTSE100 stocks
by P/CF and took the top 25 for
consideration. Historically the
stocks with the lowest price to cash
flow have significantly outper-
formed the stocks with the highest
both by lower risk beard and higher
return earned over a medium term
investment. Using the top 25 P/CF
companies, we then looked at their
dividend yield and then took the
best combination of P/CF and DY
companies to form the value por-
tion of our portfolio.

12

Sector Diversification
The team felt it was best to utilise consensus analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg of earnings and sales growth for
each sector as indicators of which industries were likely to outperform over the long run, and consequently which ones
should be over/under weighted. We concluded that both Telecommunications and Utilities where an unattractive invest-
ment, with average EPS and Sale growth values of 0.13% and -2.60% respective-
All Securities 8.60% ly. We felt there was insufficient evidence to prove that these sectors would expe-
Oil & Gas 7.64%
rience significant growth within our portfolio horizon and therefore did not meet
Basic Materials 11.68%
our investment strategy. Furthermore they have typically been defensive sectors
Industrials 8.72%
Consumer Goods 11.05% with a risk of government intervention, wherein rulings forcing suppliers to give
Health Care 8.60% customers the cheapest possible tariff have been enacted.
Consumer Services 5.04%
Telecommunications 0.13% Then the team computed by what degree each sector’s average earnings and
Utilities -2.60% growth was set to outperform the market, then over or underweighted accordingly.
Financials 9.34%
Technology 7.19% This is easily seen by comparing the earnings and sales growth table (left) to the
Bloomberg Consensus sector earnings/sales FTSE 100 sector weightings (lower left) in conjunction with our own portfolio
growth estimates for the next 3 years weights.

Optimisation
Aside from ensuring the selected equities have differing performance profiles as characteristically value and growth stocks
do, and being from a broad range of industries, the team used mean-variance optimisation techniques on each sector . Ex-
pected returns, in conjunction with historical betas, were derived from the CAPM. Equity risk premium was estimated to
be 4.76% and derived from current market volatility indexes. This figure is also equal to the UK’s ERP from 1900-2012.

13

Exit Strategy
% Change
Stock Weight Needed
Our portfolio will be subject to semi-annual rebalancing.
Admiral Group PLC 2.28% 22.72% This table shows the loss required in any of the stock’s
ARM Holdings PLC 0.97% 24.03% share prices for an immediate stock dump from the port-
folio, within the re-adjustment intervals. In the situation
Aviva PLC 7.61% 17.39% that a stock is dropped then any recuperated funds will be
Astrazeneca PLC 1.10% 23.90% invested in cash until the next 6 month review, at which
the time any outstanding cash will be reallocated.
BAE Systems PLC 2.93% 22.07%
The method used to calculate these percentage changes
British American Tobacco PLC 5.10% 19.90%
has taken into account the exposure we have in each
BG Group PLC 2.50% 22.50% stock, so we are able to quantify the kind off losses the
portfolio is able to withstand depending on the exposure
BHP Billiton PLC 1.44% 23.56% the portfolio has to each individual stock. We feel this has
BP PLC 6.70% 18.30% been achieved without running the risk of being stopped-
out of a stock just through its day to day fluctuations and
CRH PLC 1.28% 23.72% will only close a position in a stock if it has entered a
Diageo PLC 2.90% 22.10% serious downtrend.

ENRC PLC 2.72% 22.28% There are many benefits to having a form of stop loss
EVRAZ PLC 1.49% 23.51% included in our portfolio. Primarily they are a form of
preventing catastrophic losses. If a stock drops a certain
GlaxoSmithKline PLC 3.91% 21.09% percentage below the price it was bought at then the stop
loss closes the position to prevent further losses, prevent-
IMI PLC 3.45% 21.55%
ing as much downside risk as possible.
Legal & General Group PLC 8.03% 16.97%
With the inclusion of a stop loss the portfolio does not
Marks and Spencer Group PLC 2.32% 22.68%
need to be continually monitored. This means that the
Petrofac Ltd 3.24% 21.76% portfolio can follow a semi-annual rebalancing with the
Reckitt Benckiser Group PLC 2.72% 22.28% knowledge that not one individual stock’s loss will com-
promise the return of the entire portfolio.
Royal Dutch Shell PLC 6.72% 18.28%
Reed Elsevier PLC 2.47% 22.53%
Rio Tinto PLC 5.08% 19.92%
J.Sainsbury PLC 3.13% 21.87%
Schroders PLC 5.00% 20.00%
Smith & Nephew PLC 3.67% 21.33%
Tate & Lyle PLC 7.48% 17.52%
Vedanta Resources PLC 3.75% 21.25%

14

Trade Execution
For trade execution on the Stocktrak platform we utilised the historical studies of daily stock mar-
ket performance over the last 21 years, contained in this year’s Stock Trader’s Almanac. This is Date Jan Feb
predicated on the fact that stock market anomalies continue to exist (Latif et al, 2011). Since we were
constrained to execute in the two week period from February 1 st to 15th, we chose to execute 1 H 71.4
when the market was historically likely to have a rough day and hit a low which happened to be
Valentine’s Day, February 14th. 2 66.7 S

Then we further drilled down into the half hourly performance of the market indexes to find 3 66.7 S
the perfect execution point, 2:30pm GMT seemed more appropriate than trying to navigate
any opening gaps. 4 47.6 52.4

5 S 42.9
Thursday 6 S 52.4

7 52.4 52.4

8 33.3 42.9

9 52.4 S

10 52.4 S

11 52.4 57.7

12 S 57.1
Half hourly performance probability graph, number indicates proportion of times mar-
ket moved higher in the following half an hour over a 21 year period of data 13 S 61.9
Source: Hirsch 2012 14 52.4 38.1
When considering the best times for best execution there is always the option to place a limit 15 61.9 66.7
order, so the position is taken out at the lowest hypothesised price over a period of time. The
decision was made not to place limit orders as there was only a two week window to execute Market probability calendar based
our trades, and any stocks that hadn’t hit the limit order in that time would have had to been on 21 year period from the Stock
bought on the final day of the execution period. The issue with this is that on the final day of Trader’s Almanac 2013, number
indicates proportion of times market
the period the stock could have been trading at a much higher price, making it difficult for that closed up on the day
stock to make a significant return. The team was very willing to pay for immediacy in this
case. Source: Hirsch 2012

15

Equity Performance Table

16

Sector Performance Table

17

A final word from the team
George Cotton
Managing Director & Portfolio Manager

Though in this instance the portfolio underperformed our benchmark, we believe this was in part due to unforeseeable
problems with individual equities we were exposed to which our screens could not have foreseen. A broader base of
diversification would on paper have mitigated such losses, but factoring in commissions, tracking error and slippage
would have eaten away at any returns as well.

Luke Bailey
Quantitative Analyst

Our sector weighting formula enabled us to be heavily exposed to industries with long term profit potential based on
consensus forecasts, however short term correlations with hard hit commodities meant our basic materials alloca-
tions suffered. The Optimisation procedure also led to overexposure to stocks with historically low volatility, which
became extremely volatile following fundamental announcements (Aviva).

Victor Kerezov
Chief Economist

Our bullish conjecture regarding the improving macroeconomic fundamentals of the domestic and global economy
seem to be in the process of being realised and discounted in the rapid upward price movements of the last few
weeks. Cash appears to be leaving the sidelines and rotating out of overvalued bond markets as risk appetite im-
proves. This bodes well for equity markets in the near and intermediate term.

Nitesh Patel
Trade Execution & Performance Analyst

Our execution procedure was effective in tactically allocating the portfolio in the short term, we managed to avoid
any severe drawdown in NAV over the performance period. An overview of our sector performance suggests we
missed out on a source of solid returns, the utilities and telecoms sectors, in spite of this exposure to any large loss-
es was still diversified away.

Lewis Freeman
Risk Associate, Strategic Analyst

As the Portfolio Risk Associate I was responsible for ensuring that all exposures contain a tolerable amount of risk
to match our fund objectives, this was a success we kept the portfolio beta at 1.12, well below the target. Secondly
as Strategic Analyst it was my role to ensure that trade execution was completed at the most efficient hour within
our execution dates, and that all trades are correct, minimising the chance of slippage, which was also successful.

18

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