Impact mitigation and adaptation
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The document summarizes the key findings of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report regarding the observed and projected impacts of climate change. It finds that natural and human systems are already being affected by regional climate changes. Impacts are expected to increase substantially with further warming, including reduced agricultural productivity, heightened water insecurity, increased extreme weather events, ecosystem collapse, and greater health risks. Adaptation can help reduce vulnerabilities in the short-term, but mitigation is needed to avoid the most severe consequences of climate change.
Impact mitigation and adaptation
- 1. g IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change: impacts and adaptation Lučka Kajfež Bogataj University of Ljubljana IPCC WG2 vicechair through AR4
- 2. Following addressed: • Impacts observed so far • Future scenarios • Impacts on sectors • Water • Ecosystems • Agriculture, forestry, fisheries • Coasts • Settlements and industry • Health • Impacts on regions (Asia, Australia.... Europe..)
- 3. Leaf unfolding dates in Europe
- 4. Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 13, 1941, photo by W.O. Field
- 5. Muir Glacier, Alaska, August 31, 2004, photo by B.F. Molnia
- 6. Heat wave of 2003, the largest humanitarian natural catastrophe in Europe for centuries Perceived Temperature on 8 August 2003 and excess mortality Source: German Weather Service, 2004 Heat stress 2,000 extreme † high 2,000 7,000 moderate † † light comfortable 15,000 light moderate † high extreme 4,000 Cold stress † 4,000 † UTC 13:00
- 7. Climate change impacts transpire gradually from the natural environment into the economies and society Ecosystem Soil Water Nature Air Biodiversity
- 8. Water
- 9. Projected impacts of climate change Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) 0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5° C Food Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Possible rising yields in Falling yields in many some high latitude regions developed regions Water Significant decreases in water Small mountain glaciers availability in many areas, including Sea level rise disappear – water Mediterranean and Southern Africa supplies threatened in threatens major cities several areas Ecosystems Extensive Damage Rising number of species face extinction to Coral Reefs Extreme Weather Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves Events Risk of Abrupt and Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and Major Irreversible abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system Changes
- 10. Impacts – Marine & terrestrial ecosystems +1-2 ° : negative impacts for some systems C (e.g. Coral bleaching, endemic plants & fauna in S-Africa, polar systems) +2-3 ° : major biome changes very likely (e.g. C coral mortality, 20-80% loss of Amazonian rainforest, globally 20-30% species extinction) > +3 ° : widespread, heavy impacts on C biomes, globally significant extinctions
- 12. Major impacts of climate change on crop and livestock yields, and forestry production by 2050
- 13. Agriculture Region Impacts Australia Worse droughts; desertification of farmland East Asia Increased storm activity & intensity S Asia Increased flooding; increased drought; increased disease S America & Increased storms; lower yields; increased Caribbean drought Africa Increased disease; lower yields, droughts N America, Increased crop varieties & yields, but more Europe, Rus. disease S Europe Yield fall, drought Globally there will be some gains in potential agricultural land by 2080, but losses of up to 9% in sub-Saharan Africa.
- 14. More extreme weather events
- 15. Industry and settlements • The most vulnerable are • those in coastal and river flood plains, • those whose economies are closely linked with climate-sensitive resources, and • those in areas prone to extreme weather events, especially where rapid urbanisation is occurring. Poor communities can be especially vulnerable, in particular those concentrated in high-risk areas.
- 16. Human health, already compromised by a range of factors, could also be further negatively impacted by climate change and climate variability Negative Impact Positive Impact
- 17. Vulnerability of coastal deltas • Coastal wetlands including Population potentially displaced by salt marshes and mangroves will be negatively affected by current sea level trends to 2050 sea-level rise. • Many millions more people are to be flooded every year due to sea-level rise by the 2080s. • The numbers affected will be largest in the mega-deltas of Asia and Africa while small islands are especially Extreme > 1 million; vulnerable. high =1 million – 50,000; medium 50,000 – 5000.
- 18. Regions most affected Vulnerable systems and sectors • The Arctic • Some ecosystems Coral reefs; sea-ice regions Tundra, boreal forests, • Sub-Saharan Africa mountain and Mediterranean regions • Small islands • Low-lying coasts mangroves & salt marshes • Asian megadeltas • Water resources in mid- latitudes & dry Tropics • Low-latitude agriculture • Human health where adaptive capacity is low
- 19. Europe North ↔ South differences N Europe S Europe Increased forest growth Increased fire risk (only in the beginning?) Increased water Decreased water availability availability (2070 ca.↑1/5) ( 2070 ca.↓1/3) Increased Decreased yields yields (only in the beginning? )
- 20. Adaptation will be necessary to address unavoidable impacts
- 21. Adaptation/Mitigation • Some adaptation is occurring now, faces limitations and barriers • Other stresses can exacerbate vulnerability • Vulnerability depends also on development paths • Sustainable development can reduce vulnerability • Mitigation can reduce, delay or avoid impacts
- 22. A global shift southward PRUDENCE project; Results based on HadRM3H
- 23. SUMMARY human development tipping points Reduced agricultural productivity Heightened water insecurity Increased exposure to extreme weather events Collapse of ecosystems Increased health risks
- 24. CONCLUSIONS • Natural and human systems are being affected by regional climate changes • Impacts are expected to increase with increases in global average temperature. • Adaptation can reduce vulnerability, especially in the short-term.