Improving Data Aggregation and Analysis to Address Challenges of an Evolving Energy Market

Improving Data Aggregation and
Analysis to Address Challenges
of an Evolving Energy Market
WHITE PAPER
Sponsored by

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
© Commodity Technology Advisory LLC, 2017, All Rights Reserved.
The major North American energy markets, including natural gas, power and oil, have undergone
massive changes over the last decade. New sources of supply enabled by technical innovation
have created market imbalances and have spurred billions of dollars of investment in process-
ing facilities, pipelines, export facilities and power transmission systems in order to better align
those new supplies to the markets they serve.
Additionally, with the easing of export regulations, in-
vestments in energy export facilities and increasing
overseas demand for US LNG, liquids and crude oil
have resulted in a tightening connection between
US and foreign energy markets. And while these
new energy market structures are generally seen as
a net positive for market participants, the increasing
influence of global market developments has created
significant uncertainty around future market direction
and price formation across most energy commodities.
Absorbing these many new energy sources and the
resulting massive growth in supplies has created
new markets, hubs and trading locations; and have
increased the sources, granularity and velocity of mar-
ket data that flows into energy trading floors across
the industry. Identifying and collecting the appropriate
sources of data and information is a critical first step
in developing the insights and actionable information
necessary to succeed in these challenging and con-
stantly evolving markets.
However, without a sophisticated analytics capability
to convert that data to timely, relevant and actionable
market and operational insights (i.e. early warnings
of potential supply bottlenecks or inventory chang-
es, timely identification of shifts in your intraday P&L,
non-optimized physical assets, etc.), the flood of data
arriving at your doorstep will overwhelm your existing
resources and your team’s commercial and operation-
al decisions will be based on data and information of
increasing vintage.
Fortunately, advances in web-based technologies
have enabled a new generation of tools and solutions
that can accelerate the analysis of huge data sets from
multiple systems and data sources - allowing the earli-
est possible identification of market moves, emergent
opportunities and impending risks. One such solution,
Eka Analytics, utilizes apps that can be configured by
business users to mix and match different data sets
from divergent sources and perform real-time analysis
to answer their organization’s most critical and timely
questions. With support for all types of analytics from
simple aggregations to advanced predictive mod-
els, energy companies using this solution can gain a
competitive advantage by optimizing operations and
strategies to take advantage of both rapidly emerging
opportunities and longer-term market developments.

INTRODUCTION
The North American energy markets, influenced by both domestic and international develop-
ments, are undergoing a rapid evolution that has and continues to challenge energy commodity
producers, processors, and traders. Driven by technical innovation, regulatory intervention and
globalization, the changes occurring have impacted the entirety of the energy supply chain - es-
tablishing new pricing correlations, increasing operational complexities and creating new mar-
kets and trading hubs…and, by extension, created vast new pools of data and information that
must be considered when formulating market strategies and trading decisions.
Despite these challenges, for those properly equipped
with the tools and applications that can capture, ana-
lyze and support real-time decision making, there are
any number of new opportunities to profit in this com-
plex environment.
In this white paper we will examine the ongoing chang-
es and the resultant challenges in a few of the most
rapidly evolving North American energy markets, and
discuss an approach to address those challenges
through sophisticated real-time data aggregation and
analytics.

Improving Data Aggregation and Analysis A ComTechAdvisory Whitepaper
NATURAL GAS – NEW SUPPLIES AND
GROWING GLOBAL PRICE INFLUENCE
Beginning around 2010, the North American natural gas markets experienced a massive restruc-
turing of supply which has reshaped and redirected a significant portion of the country’s delivery
infrastructure, created an almost persistent oversupplied condition, and has changed many of
the sources, types and channels of data on which traders rely.
With the advent of long-reach horizontal drilling tech-
niques and massive hydraulic fracturing, a wealth
of supply has been brought on-line from fields that
were otherwise uneconomic to produce, including
the hugely prolific Marcellus and Utica shales, which
combined now account for more than 23 BCF of the
US’ total daily production of 70 BFC. The resulting
shifting of supply to the Northeast US from the Gulf
Coast has redirected pipeline flows and rewritten pric-
ing relationships that have existed for more than two
decades. With new pipelines and new processing fa-
cilities under constant development in the Northeast,
price development at the emerging trading hubs in
the region are in a state of flux and pricing forecasting
is a constant challenge for traders.
With the establishment of new and increasingly liquid
trading points in the Northeast, the Gulf Coast trading
locations, such as Henry Hub, are becoming discon-
nected from the large gas markets in New England
and the upper Midwest. With redirected gas flows and
the breakdown of many of the historical basis relation-
ships that had existed between Henry Hub and much
of the Eastern and Midwest US markets, many trad-
ers have been forced to formulate new strategies and
uncover new market opportunities.
Spurred in large part by an oversupplied market and
low prices, investments in new gas export facilities in-
creased - including LNG liquification plants for exports
to the global markets, and new pipelines to service
growing demand from the newly liberalized Mexican
natural gas market. With the opening of the Mexican
markets to wholesale competition, increasing US
gas exports to Mexico are providing near term price
support for the oversupplied Gulf Coast region. With
exports reaching 4 BCF/day at end of 2016 and in-
creasing to an estimated 5 BCF/day in 2017, planned
capacity additions in late 2017 and 2018 could see,
in total, as much as 9 BCF/day moving south if the
Mexican market demand continues to increase.
Beyond exports by pipe, the development of LNG ex-
port facilities, including the now operating Chenier fa-
cility at Sabine Pass (which is now a reliable consum-
er of about 900MM/day and is expected to increase
to 1.5BCFD prior to year’s end), the US has become
a significant player in the global LNG markets; and in
the process has effectively connected the domestic
market to global natural gas prices. With additional

facilities and process trains coming online in the next
two years, total takeaway via LNG could reach as
much as 4-5 BCF/day.
Should the forecasted growth in export volumes oc-
cur, supplies in the Gulf Coast region could tighten
and significant price volatility could result. As such, in-
creasing exports will impact the broader North Amer-
ican gas market - implying that all traders, whether
or not they ship gas to Mexico or trade LNG direct-
ly, need to remain abreast of these market develop-
ments, including regional supply and demand balanc-
es, projected and actual export volumes, and even
price movements at the emerging global LNG trading
hubs in Europe and Asia.
Aside from exports, the increasing reliance on nat-
ural gas for power production, including baseload
generation, has not only increased domestic natural
gas demand, but has also forced greater operation-
al coordination between the gas and power markets.
FERC Order 809, implemented in April 2016, added
an additional intraday gas scheduling cycle to address
a mismatch between intraday generation operations
and the fuel purchases and deliveries on which the
plant operators rely. Though improving operational
flexibility for generators, natural gas schedulers’ and
traders’ workloads have increased, and have made
timely market data and operational flow information
an imperative for maintaining profitable operations.
Given the additional scheduling cycle and the shorter
windows for intraday adjustments, gas shippers must
react quickly to pipeline cuts - analyzing supply and
market impacts, and identifying alternatives for opti-
mizing flows or trading in or out of imbalances in their
intraday positions. Without this type of analysis and
full visibility of the value of the alternatives, a day’s
profitability could vanish with a single pipeline cut.
INFLUX OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IS
CHALLENGING OPERATORS AND TRADERS
The influx of renewable energy resources, including wind, utility scale solar and distributed solar
have challenged grid operators in maintaining market stability and impacted traditional power
generators. According to the EIA, in March 2017, wind and solar sources exceeded 10% of the
total electric power generated in the US for the first time – up from the 7% contributed by wind
and solar for the full year 2016.
As these renewable resources are highly variable,
and their output will rise and fall with conditions that
can’t be controlled, their increasing contributions
are forcing grid operators from New York to Califor-
nia to develop new operational strategies, tools and
markets in order to ensure grid stability. While the

INCREASING EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM
LIQUIDS
operational and market changes being contemplated
are in various stages of development, it’s almost cer-
tain that most or all will require the implementation
of sub-hourly bidding and dispatch to cope with the
variable nature of renewables.
The Western US, where states like California and
Nevada have seen huge growth in solar capacity, has
been particularly impacted by the influx of renewables
and, as a result, new markets and operating standards
are being developed to address the challenges, in-
cluding the western energy imbalance market (EIM)
as part of the CAISO. With seven power providers cur-
rently participating, the new imbalance market better
coordinates generation and operations involving wind
and solar sources by awarding bids in 15 minute inter-
vals and dispatching generation in 5 minute periods.
This increasing granularity in power trading and oper-
ations will produce massive new streams of data that
must be incorporated and analyzed in order for gen-
erators and traders operate profitably. With the devel-
opment of the LMP markets over the decade, pow-
er markets have been throwing off tremendous data
streams, and now with the movement to sub-hourly
markets to better incorporate intermittent renew-
ables, power market participants will be increasingly
challenged to capture and analyze huge streams of
data in their daily operations.
According to the EIA, since the US began allowing exports of domestically produced crude in
late 2015, the US has attained the position of being one of the largest global exporters. Driven
in part by excess inventories along the Gulf Coast and cheap tanker rates, US crude exports
reached 1.1 million bbls/day in February of 2017 and have averaged over 900,000 bbls/day
from January through June of this year. While many market experts are at odds of whether ex-
ports will maintain these levels, or whether this is just opportunistic trading based on current
oversupplied conditions, clearly the new ability to export crude is creating unique opportunities
for US producers, traders and merchants.
Whether identifying and locking in a favorable price
spread between the US and an overseas market, or
taking advantage of an opportunity to optimize asset
utilization via physical swaps, profiting by trading do-
mestically produced oil and products in today’s mar-
kets requires global insights and information; and
given the span of the global oil markets, the sources
of data and information are virtually limitless. In fact,

it’s increasingly common for today’s leading oil trading
companies to track and monitor tens of thousands of
data points daily - including prices, ship movements,
and tank volumes at overseas terminals (up to and in-
cluding drone based monitoring of the floating roofs
on storage tanks). While the collection of such data
streams can be daunting in itself, the ability to quick-
ly analyze that collected data for true market insights
can be almost impossible without an advanced analyt-
ics solution.
ACHIEVING VISIBILITY INTO A
CONSTANTLY CHANGING MARKET
Whether driven by technical innovations, such as massive hydraulic fracturing or advances in
renewable energy and energy storage, by regulatory changes allowing exports of domestically
produced crude, or evolving global trading patterns and activities, the North American energy
markets of today have fundamentally changed. Each new market change or innovation creates
additional streams of data, including multitudes of new prices, operational flow data and market
intelligence; and the tools and analytics necessary to compete effectively must change as well.
The impacts of these influences can only be mea-
sured by accurate and timely data, arriving via dozens
or even hundreds of channels, both internal and exter-
nal. Assessing the impacts and adjusting trading de-
cisions to limit downside risks and ensure profitable
operations requires rapid data collection and analysis.
In this environment, any process that creates latency
in your businesses information flow, such as manual
data compilation, complex reconciliations or reports
that require hours or days to run, can and will invari-
ably, result in lower profits, missed opportunities and
increased risks.
EKA’S APPROACH TO ACCELERATING
ANALYTICS AND DECISION MAKING
Eka Analytics is an analytics solution that leverages the latest web-based technologies to ag-
gregate data and information from both internal and external channels and, via app-based sta-
tistical modelling, quickly analyzes data to provide rapid market insights and identification of
opportunities and risks. These apps enable companies managing crude and refined products,

Eka Analytics consolidates information from multiple
sources including pricing servers, gas scheduling
software, ETRM software, ERP, CRM, treasury, and
spreadsheets; and quickly processes and analyzes
large volumes of data for improved market insight.
Users can, without IT intervention, mix and match dif-
ferent data sets from divergent sources and perform
real-time analysis to provide answers to their organi-
zations most critical questions. With support for all
types of analytics from simple aggregations to ad-
vanced predictive models, energy companies can gain
a competitive advantage by optimizing operations and
strategies to take advantage of both rapidly emerging
opportunities and longer-term market developments.
Currently deployed at a number of leading energy
businesses, Eka Analytics is a proven solution to ac-
celerate data analysis and information flow in rapidly
evolving markets. Eka’s customers are leveraging the
system’s capabilities to optimize facility and equip-
ment operations, resolve bottlenecks in supply chains
and quickly identify misaligned positions impacting
P&L…all at a fraction of the time required using lega-
cy processes.
SUMMARY
While the North American energy markets have al-
ways been a challenging environment in which to
operate, current and ongoing market changes are
increasing their complexity and are presenting un-
precedented challenges to all participants. Technical
innovation, regulatory intervention and increasing glo-
balization are continually forcing energy market par-
ticipants to “up their game”, and improve their strat-
egies, processes and systems. In this environment,
deploying the right systems, including a sophisticated
analytics capability to quickly consolidate data, identi-
fy risks & opportunities and help optimize operations,
can be the difference between profit and loss.
natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGL), liquefied natural gas (LNG), power, coal, and biofuels to
optimize their operations, reduce costs and improve operational performance and profitability.

ABOUT EKA
Eka is the global leader in providing cloud-based
Smart Commodity Management software solutions.
Eka’s analytics-driven, end-to-end Commodity Man-
agement platform enables companies to efficiently
and profitably meet the challenges of complex and
volatile markets.
The company’s best-of-breed solutions manage
commodity trading, enterprise risk, compliance,
procurement, supply chain, operations, logistics,
bulk handling, processing, and decision support.
Eka partners with customers to accelerate growth,
increase profitability, improve operational control,
and manage risks and exposures.
Eka is a team of 315 staff with offices in the Amer-
icas, Asia, Australia, and EMEA, serving a rapidly
growing global client base across multiple commod-
ity segments.
For more information about Eka, visit
www.ekaplus.com

ABOUT
Commodity
Technology
Advisory
LLC
Commodity Technology Advisory is the leading analyst organization covering the ETRM and
CTRM markets. We provide the invaluable insights into the issues and trends affecting the
users and providers of the technologies that are crucial for success in the constantly evolving
global commodities markets.
Patrick Reames and Gary Vasey head our team, whose combined 60-plus years in the energy
and commodities markets, provides depth of understanding of the market and its issues that is
unmatched and unrivaled by any analyst group.
For more information, please visit:
www.comtechadvisory.com
ComTech Advisory also hosts the CTRMCenter, your online portal with news and views about
commodity markets and technology as well as a comprehensive online directory of software
and services providers.
Please visit the CTRMCenter at:
www.ctrmcenter.com
19901 Southwest Freeway
Sugar Land TX 77479
+1 281 207 5412
Prague, Czech Republic
+420 775 718 112
ComTechAdvisory.com
Email: info@comtechadvisory.com

Improving Data Aggregation and Analysis to Address Challenges of an Evolving Energy Market

More Related Content

Similar to Improving Data Aggregation and Analysis to Address Challenges of an Evolving Energy Market (20)

More from CTRM Center (20)

Recently uploaded (20)

Improving Data Aggregation and Analysis to Address Challenges of an Evolving Energy Market