©2015StrikingGrouphttp://strikinggroup.com.au/ l
Accurateprojectestimationisoneofthemostchallengingaspectsofaproject.Projectestimationbecomes
increasinglydifficultastheproject’scomplexityanduncertaintyincreases.However,projectestimatescanbe
accurate.
Thepowerfulprojectestimationtechniquesthatareexplainedinthisarticlewillquicklyimprovetheaccuracyofproject
estimates,evenifyouhavenoprojectestimationexperience.
Itisthereforeimportanttoaligntheprojectestimationrequirementstotherequiredaccuracyandstageoftheproject.
Beforeyoubeginprojectestimation,thereneedsto
beanunderstandingofthescopeoftheproject.If
youdon’tknowwhattheprojectistryingtoachieve,
thenthereislittlechanceofbeingabletoaccurate
estimatetheeffortrequired.The more detailed
thescopeoftheproject,themoredetailed
andaccuratetheprojectestimatewillbe.The
size,size,complexityandstageoftheprojectwillimpact
greatlyonthelevelofaccuracyrequired,theamount
ofcostandtimethebusinesscancommittoproject
estimationandthelevelofunderstandingandclarity
ofthescopeoftheproject.
ImprovingProject
EstimationAccuracy
BeforeEstimatingProjectCosts
©2015StrikingGrouphttp://strikinggroup.com.au/ l
Itcanbeextremelychallengingtoestimateaproject,asaprojectbydefinitionisuniqueinnature,oftenanew
product,serviceorbusinesschange.Butthereareseveraltechniquesavailablethatcangreatlyimprovethe
projectestimationprocessandaccuracywhichinclude:
Projectestimationrequiresalevelofexpertjudgement,notonlyintheprojectitselfbutmoreimportantlyexpert
judgementofthebusinessenvironmentinwhichtheprojectisbeingdelivered.Itistypicallytheroleoftheproject
managertoprovidethisexpertjudgementinordertodecidewhatbusinessrisksneedtobemanagedand
whichprojectestimatingtechniqueislikelytoachievethebestresults.Someareasofconsiderationare:
:-Impactofinflationovertheprojectlifecycle
:-Foreignexchangeriskwhenusinginternationalsuppliers
:-Canhedgingorinsurancereducetheexposuretothebusiness
:-Requiredlabourandlabourrates
:-Materialcostsandassumptions
:-Costsofquality
:-Availabilityofhistoricalinformation
:-Levelofprojectestimationaccuracyrequired
Analogousestimatesareagreattechniqueforearlyprojectestimationprovidingthereissufficienthistoricaldatafor
whichassumptionsofsimilarityinsizeandcomplexitycanbederived.
Forexample,theprojectmaybetoimplementaCRM systemintoan80personnationalcompany.Knowledgeofpast
projectsofsimilarcomplexityhavetaken5monthstocompletefora40personcompany.
ExpertJudgment
AnalogousEstimating
ProjectEstimationTechniques
ProjectEstimationAccuracy
©2015StrikingGrouphttp://strikinggroup.com.au/ l
Withthisinformationyoumightinferthatthecomplexityissimilarbutthescaleoftheprojectisdoubleandan
Analogousprojectestimationwouldsuggestthiscouldtake10months.
Aswithmostprojectestimationtechniques,eachhavetheirownadvantagesandlimitations,somekeyconsiderations
forAnalogousprojectestimatingare:
:-Howdoestheprojectdifferfromthatofthehistoricaldata
:-Whatadjustmentcanbemadetotheformulaforthosedifferences
:-Howaccurateisthehistoricaldata
:-Isthedatasourceinternalorexternaltotheorganisation
:-Whatexternalfactorshavenotbeenaccountedfor
:-Cantheestimatebeverifiedbyanexternalexpert
:-Analogousestimatesofferalowlevelofaccuracyatalowcost
Parametricprojectestimationissimilartoanalogousestimatingbutprovidesanincreasedlevelofaccuracyduetothe
statisticalnatureoftheestimatingtechnique.Thisestimatingtechniqueisoftenbasedonaverageknownrates,such
assquaremeterageforconstructionorsoftwarelinesofcodeforsoftwareprojectsetc.
Forexampleifatypicalresidentialhouseusuallycostsaround$1,000persquaremeter,a400squaremeterhouse
canbeestimatedtocostaround$400,000.
Estimatingasoftwareprojectthatisexpectedtohavearound20,000linesofcodeandthecostperlineofcodeis
$3.Wecanestimatethattheprojectislikelytocost$60,000.
ThisThisprojectestimationtechniqueishighlydependentonthequalityofthedatasourceandtheknowledgeofthe
projectspecifics,somekeyconsiderationsare:
:-Howalignedisthequalityrequirementtohistoricaldata
:-Ageofhistoricaldata
:-Understandingoftheprojectspecification
:-Accuracyofhistoricaldata
:-Datasource(internalorexternal)
10
9
8
7
6
5
44
3
2
1
Bottom-upprojectestimationbreaksdownandestimateseachcomponentofaproject.Eachkeyportionorwork
packageissplitandbrokendowntogreaterlevelsofdetail.Theindividualcostsofeachworkpackageisthentotalled
toformthefullbottom-upprojectestimate.
Thebottom-upestimatetakesthelongestamountoftimetoprepare,butprovidingsufficientcomponentdetailis
calculatedthisprojectestimationtechniquecanprovidethehighestlevelofaccuracy.Someconsiderationsare:
4
3
2
1
ParametricEstimating
Bottom-UpEstimating
©2015StrikingGrouphttp://strikinggroup.com.au/ l
:-Estimateaccuracyreliesonlevelofdetailknown
:-Cantakeconsiderableamountoftimeforcomplexprojects
:-Cantakeconsiderableamountofmoney
:-Maynotbeidealduringearlyinitiationduetothe
costofthisestimationtechnique.
Thistechniqueworksgreatforseveralreasons.
:-Psychologicallyitiseasiertoprovideanumberwhenyoucanprovideawiderange
:-Startingwiththeworstcaseoftenleadstolessresistance
:-Onceworstcaseandbestcaseisidentified,itbecomeseasiertoprovidethemostlikelycase
:-Reducesthenaturalinstincttoinflateestimates
IIwillgenerallyaskexpertstofirstprovidetheirworstcaseestimateandthenthebestcaseestimate.Oncethese2
pointsareagreed,Itiseasierforthemtodeterminethemostlikelycaseknowingtheirupperandlowerestimates.
Oncethese3pointsofdataarecaptured,theformula(O+4L+P)/6canbeappliedtocalculatetheweighted
averageestimate.
Ifwegobacktoourlinesofcodeestimateaboveathree-pointPERTestimatemightlooksomethinglikethis:
WeWecanseethatbuyusingthePERTtechniqueinourprojectestimationwenowhaveaweightedaveragesoftware
linesofcode,whichshouldbemoreaccuratethanourinitialestimateof20,000linesofcode.Dependingonthelevel
ofcertainty,theweightingsoftheaveragecanbeadjustedtosuit.
Three-PointEstimates
BestCase(O) MostLikelyCase(L) WorstCase(P)
Whatisthebestcasescenario
tobuildX
Whatisthebestcasescenarioto
buildX
Whatistheworstcasescenario
tobuildX
©2015StrikingGrouphttp://strikinggroup.com.au/ l
Ifthereisaspecificelementoftheproject(oralloftheproject)tobeoutsourcedandprocuringanexternalvendorto
delivertheprojectonyourbehalf,asimpleandeffectivewayindeterminingprojectestimatesistohavethese
externalsuppliersconductitonyourbehalf.
Thiswilllikelybethroughacompetitivebiddingprocess,wheremultiplevendorswillprovideaproposalincludinga
fixedpriceandrequiredtimeframesforcompletion.
OnceOnceallofthevendorbidshavebeenreturned,anevaluationcanbemadeoneachbidinordertodeterminethe
rangeofcostsassociatedwitheachsolution,takingintoaccountanyqualityassumptionsanddocumented
exclusions.
Keyaspectstorememberinvendorbidanalysisprojectestimationare:
Finally,oncetheprojectestimationhasbeencompletedandtheprojecthasadefinedbudget,itisimportantto
provideforthelevelof“uncertainty”.
Aswithanyestimate,itisjustthat,anestimate.Itshouldnotbeexpectedtobe100%accurateandonlyrequiredto
beasaccurateastheroughorderofmagnitudethatwasused,i.e.±15%fortheknowncomponents.
An estimate willinevitably include some elementof
uncertaintyandduetotheuniquenessofaproject,willcarry
certainrisks.Theprojectestimationprocessshouldaccount
forthisuncertainty.
UncertaintyUncertaintyisoftenmanagedwitha“contingency”budget,
contingencyisused wherethereis20% ofuncertainty
surroundingthescope,areasonableestimatemaybeto
allow20%contingencyforthegreyareas.
:-Bidqualityreliesonqualityofscopedocumentationprovided
:-Requiresknowledgableandcapablevendors
:-Pricemaybeinflatedduetounknownorrisktransference
:-Maybedifficulttodetermineindividualcomponentcosts
:-Doesnotimproveinternalknowledgeforfutureprojectestimation
VendorBidAnalysis
ReserveAnalysis
©2015StrikingGrouphttp://strikinggroup.com.au/ l
NosingleprojectestimationtechniquewillsuitallprojectsandforbestresultsIsuggestusingandcombiningallor
manyoftheseestimatingtechniquestoprovideincreasedaccuracytoyourprojectestimates.
Iliketotakeitonestepfurtheranduseathree-point(PERT)estimateforallprojectestimationtechniques,applyinga
PERTweightedaverageforeverything!Thisisanotherkeyreasonthethree-pointismyfavouriteprojectestimation
technique.
CombineMultipleProjectEstimationTechniques
ChrisO'HalloranisrecognisedasAustralia'sleadingprojectmanagement
expertandtheAuthorof"DoneBetterFaster-TheManagerGuideTo
Agile".HeisthefounderofStriking Group,a projectmanagement
consultancywithofficesacrossAustraliaandAsiawhichfocusseson
pragmaticprojectmanagementadviceandtoolsthatactuallywork.Heis
aCertifiedPracticingProjectDirectorandCouncillorfortheAustralian
InstituteofProjectManagement,amemberoftheInternationalProject
ManagementManagementAssociation(IPMA)andtheProjectManagementInstitute
(PMI).
ChrisO'HalloranBIO

More Related Content

PPTX
Agile masterclass - The Most Important Agile Concepts to Know and the Critica...
PDF
Why Projects Fail - What The Stats Say
PPTX
Project management tips and trick
PDF
AtlasCamp 2010: JIRA Plugin Performance Tuning - Alex Hennecke
PPSX
Implementing Confluence in to a global SME
PDF
Project Management Hacks
PPT
10 things to improve project management
PDF
Administrivia: Golden Tips for Making JIRA Hum
Agile masterclass - The Most Important Agile Concepts to Know and the Critica...
Why Projects Fail - What The Stats Say
Project management tips and trick
AtlasCamp 2010: JIRA Plugin Performance Tuning - Alex Hennecke
Implementing Confluence in to a global SME
Project Management Hacks
10 things to improve project management
Administrivia: Golden Tips for Making JIRA Hum

Similar to Improving Project Estimation Accuracy (20)

PDF
Cost Estimation method in engineering economics
PPTX
10 tips to create accurate project estimates
PPT
Estimation
PPTX
BWU_BTA_22_508_RANJAN DAS(software_project_management).pptx
PPTX
Estimation & project planning
DOCX
Pm0011 project planning and scheduling
PPTX
Blue-and-Pink-Professional-Business-Strategy-Presentation_20240911_051957_000...
PDF
PMP_Project Cost Management
PPSX
Estimation & project planning
PPTX
Estimation & project planning
DOCX
Pm0011 project planning and scheduling
PPTX
Software Project Cost Management and estimation
PPTX
Estimations
PDF
The importance of estimation
PPT
PM Estimation techniques
PDF
Project Cost management course power point 2.
PDF
Cost Estimation Uncovered Insights Into Building Estimating Services.pdf
PPTX
Cost Estimating And Developing The Budget
PDF
Day 7 Project Cost Management .pdf
Cost Estimation method in engineering economics
10 tips to create accurate project estimates
Estimation
BWU_BTA_22_508_RANJAN DAS(software_project_management).pptx
Estimation & project planning
Pm0011 project planning and scheduling
Blue-and-Pink-Professional-Business-Strategy-Presentation_20240911_051957_000...
PMP_Project Cost Management
Estimation & project planning
Estimation & project planning
Pm0011 project planning and scheduling
Software Project Cost Management and estimation
Estimations
The importance of estimation
PM Estimation techniques
Project Cost management course power point 2.
Cost Estimation Uncovered Insights Into Building Estimating Services.pdf
Cost Estimating And Developing The Budget
Day 7 Project Cost Management .pdf
Ad

Improving Project Estimation Accuracy