Int Conferece Reva Dec 2022.ppt
- 1. Title Name of the scholar SRN School Guide Name of the scholar: Arcot Purna Prasad SRN: R20PMS01 School of Management Studies Guide: Dr B Diwakar Naidu Date of Presentation: 10-December-2022
- 2. Contents
- 3. Summary of the proposed work Historical evidence shows how share prices affect financial activity of the Nation. Attempts have been made to predict future stock prices using various methods and tools. The main aim in this study is to determine the impact of macroeconomic variables on selected Stock index/ indices. Model to predict future stock prices using ANN will be developed which will have multiple hidden layers which in turn will make the prediction more accurate. Elements like Political Risk, Pandemic, Natural calamities will be included. However, as per historical predictions, there will not be much of an impact on stock prices when it is predicted, the unevenness is when the risk factors are least expected. In this particular study, this too shall be considered. Results will show how significant impact of macroeconomic variables on Stock prices which in turn affects the economy at large.
- 4. Objectives • To analyse the impact of select Macro-economic variables on stock prices • To examine the presence of volatility clustering in select macroeconomic variables • To examine the presence of volatility clustering in select Bank stocks • To find out the relationship between Macroeconomic factors and Banking Stocks • To model future stock prices • To suggest ways to avoid negative impact of macroeconomic variables on bank stocks
- 5. Activities carried out during reporting period • Review of Literature • Study on Various elements to be covered in this study • Working on one paper for publishing
- 6. Relevance of accomplished tasks The tasks performed helps in finding the required Gap for the study. It also helps build a complex model which could possibly predict stock prices more accurately.
- 7. Outcomes The literature reviews have helped develop my study further. The outcomes have helped deduce that financial activity determines the strength of economy; it can help strengthen the economy in the long run. (Nguyen, Schinckus, Su, & Chong, 2020) in their study talks about promoting long term wealth for the society’s well being and not just the wealth resulting temporarily from the capital market returns. They have identified that institutional framework of a country and its liquidity are the main key drivers of stock market; to study this, worldwide governance indicators were used as proxies to measure institutional quality. Basically both institutional quality as well as macro liquidity was used in the study.
- 8. (Pal, 2020) was motivated to examine the effects of economic globalization and institutional quality on financial development in top and bottom globalized developing countries using the panel data of 1984–2016 after coming across the hypothesis “Globalization-led financial development”. Economic growth, government investment and inflation were also included as a set of control variables in financial development function. It was found that economic globalization and institutional quality promote financial development in both the developing regions but the effect of economic globalization on financial development is higher in top globalized developing region than the bottom globalized developing region. Economic globalization also enhances financial market and impedes the development of financial institutions in top globalized developing region, while it performs the opposite in bottom globalized developing region. Varying effects of government investment and inflation on financial development were found, while economic growth enhances it in heterogeneous developing regions. These results are robust across alternative panel techniques. It was suggested that economic globalization is an instrument for the policymakers to improve developing countries’ financial development in the long-run
- 9. Planned activities • Completion of Literature Review and consolidation of the report • Working on Research Design • Working on technical aspect of the study • Completion of Machine Learning Course
- 10. References Pal S, Kumar Mahalik M. Factors driving financial development in top and bottom globalized developing economies: Does economic globalization matter? J Public Affairs. 2020;e2292. https://doi.org/10.1002/pa.2292 Nguyen CP, Schinckus C, Su TD, Chong FHL. Determinants of stock market returns in emerging markets: The linkage between institutional quality and macro liquidity. Int J Fin Econ. 2020;1–15. https://doi.org/ 10.1002/ijfe.2382