Intro to strategic forecasting by stephen shellman presentation
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Strategic forecasting refers to predicting future scenarios using quantitative analysis, judgment, and game theory. Forecasting should inform effective plans rather than plans dictating forecasts, as seen when weather forecasts are used to adapt family picnic plans rather than ignore forecasts. The author, Stephen Shellman, heads a research laboratory studying political conflict and terrorism, serving clients like the Department of Defense.
Intro to strategic forecasting by stephen shellman presentation
- 1. Intro to Strategic Forecasting By Stephen Shellman
- 2. • Strategic forecasting refers to the art and science of predicting likely future scenarios. Non-military or strategic uses of forecasting may include such topics as assessing the birthrate on future demand for minivans or compact cars. In the military realm, forecasting may analyze locations of terrorist attacks as a predictor of future events.
- 3. • Forecasting makes use of sophisticated quantitative and statistical research as well as judgment, game theory, and other analytical methods. Forecasting should not be confused with planning. Forecasting should be used to produce effective plans, rather than the other way around.
- 4. • For example, plans for a family picnic should be altered and adapted based on the weather forecast. Trying to change the forecast in order to hold on to the plan is a recipe for a soggy afternoon.
- 5. About the Author: Stephen Shellman heads the Violent Intranational Political Conflict and Terrorism Research Laboratory at the College of William and Mary. His clients include the Department of Defense, the Office of Naval Research, and Strategic Command.
- 6. About the Author: Stephen Shellman heads the Violent Intranational Political Conflict and Terrorism Research Laboratory at the College of William and Mary. His clients include the Department of Defense, the Office of Naval Research, and Strategic Command.