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Introduction to data assimilation
Nils van Velzen
May 2016 1
Outline
• Data Assimilation in a nutshell
• Models and uncertainty
• Many examples
• OpenDA
Data assimilation and model calibration
• (real time) data assimilation
• model calibration
• impact of observations
• reconstruction of sources
Models in OpenDA
• 𝑥 𝑡 + ∆𝑡 = 𝑀 𝑥 𝑡 , 𝑢 𝑡 , 𝑝, 𝑤 𝑡
• State
• Parameters
• Forcing
• Stochastic term
Models in OpenDA
• Models in Data Assimilation context are stochastic!
• Normal dynamic model (codes) are not
Models in OpenDA
Introduction_to_dataassimilation
Introduction_to_dataassimilation
Introduction_to_dataassimilation
Introduction_to_dataassimilation
Introduction_to_dataassimilation
Introduction_to_dataassimilation
Example of data assimilation
Karup catchment
Karup point A
Karup point B
Example of data assimilation
Operational storm surge forecasting
Example of data assimilation
Operational storm surge forecasting
Example of model calibration
totS = wind input + non-linear interactions (quadruplets & triads) +
whitecapping + bottom friction + depth induced wave breaking
SWAN 3rd generation wave model
Wave breaking and interaction over a bar
Example of model calibration
SWAN 3rd generation wave model
Example of model calibration
SWAN 3rd generation wave model
Motivation for OpenDA
• The algorithms are model/observation independent BUT (!)
• DA methods work on top of models → serious changes to model code
• Spaghetti code
• Difficult to change algorithm
• Maintenance problems
• Difficult to test algorithms
• Difficult/impossible to reuse code
• Expensive!
OpenDA
Content:
•Set of interfaces that define interactions between components
•Library of data-assimilation algorithms
•DA philosophy
•Building blocks only need to
be implemented once
OpenDA
• Open source (LGPL)
• Why OpenDA?
• More efficient than development for each application
• Shared knowledge between applications
• Development of algorithms with e.g. universities
• Easier to test, which should result in fewer bugs
• Optimized building blocks
• Development template
OpenDAAssociation
• Open association for developers development of OpenDA
• Ensure well-being of OpenDA
• Generic semi parallel due to OO concepts
EnKF semi parallel
EnKF semi parallel
Lotos-euros air quality model
Lessons learned
• Data assimilation combine models with observations
• Modelling of uncertainties
• Improve your model predictions
• Think about what to expect
• Optimization is an art
• OpenDA

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Introduction_to_dataassimilation

  • 1. Introduction to data assimilation Nils van Velzen May 2016 1
  • 2. Outline • Data Assimilation in a nutshell • Models and uncertainty • Many examples • OpenDA
  • 3. Data assimilation and model calibration • (real time) data assimilation • model calibration • impact of observations • reconstruction of sources
  • 4. Models in OpenDA • 𝑥 𝑡 + ∆𝑡 = 𝑀 𝑥 𝑡 , 𝑢 𝑡 , 𝑝, 𝑤 𝑡 • State • Parameters • Forcing • Stochastic term
  • 5. Models in OpenDA • Models in Data Assimilation context are stochastic! • Normal dynamic model (codes) are not
  • 13. Example of data assimilation Karup catchment
  • 16. Example of data assimilation Operational storm surge forecasting
  • 17. Example of data assimilation Operational storm surge forecasting
  • 18. Example of model calibration totS = wind input + non-linear interactions (quadruplets & triads) + whitecapping + bottom friction + depth induced wave breaking SWAN 3rd generation wave model Wave breaking and interaction over a bar
  • 19. Example of model calibration SWAN 3rd generation wave model
  • 20. Example of model calibration SWAN 3rd generation wave model
  • 21. Motivation for OpenDA • The algorithms are model/observation independent BUT (!) • DA methods work on top of models → serious changes to model code • Spaghetti code • Difficult to change algorithm • Maintenance problems • Difficult to test algorithms • Difficult/impossible to reuse code • Expensive!
  • 22. OpenDA Content: •Set of interfaces that define interactions between components •Library of data-assimilation algorithms •DA philosophy •Building blocks only need to be implemented once
  • 23. OpenDA • Open source (LGPL) • Why OpenDA? • More efficient than development for each application • Shared knowledge between applications • Development of algorithms with e.g. universities • Easier to test, which should result in fewer bugs • Optimized building blocks • Development template
  • 24. OpenDAAssociation • Open association for developers development of OpenDA • Ensure well-being of OpenDA
  • 25. • Generic semi parallel due to OO concepts EnKF semi parallel
  • 26. EnKF semi parallel Lotos-euros air quality model
  • 27. Lessons learned • Data assimilation combine models with observations • Modelling of uncertainties • Improve your model predictions • Think about what to expect • Optimization is an art • OpenDA