Hidden Markov modelling of occupancy data
O. Gimenez, L. Blanc, A. Besnard, R. Pradel,
P. Doherty, E. Marboutin, R. Choquet
Montpellier, July 4th, 2014
Occupancy models
Occupancy models
My conversion to occupancy models
• I’m more of a capture-recapture (CR) guy
• Can we use what we know from CR for occupancy?
• Individuals in CR = Sites in occupancy
• Two sides of same coin: hidden Markov models (HMM)
• Suggested by M. Kéry, I. Fiske, W. Challenger, …
• Flexible framework, well developed in other areas
Dynamic occupancy models as HMMs
O U
O = occupied; U = unoccupied
extinction
e
Dynamic occupancy models as HMMs
1
O U
O = occupied; U = unoccupied
1 = species detected; 0 = species undetected
0 1
extinction
e
1-pp p
Dynamic occupancy models as HMMs
1
O U
O = occupied; U = unoccupied
1 = species detected; 0 = species undetected
0 1 0 0 0
1-pp
extinction
0
e
p 0 0
Dynamic occupancy models as HMMs
0
U O
O = occupied; U = unoccupied
1 = species detected; 0 = species undetected
0 0 1 1 1
colonization
g
0 0 0 p p p
Dynamic occupancy models as HMMs
Initial states
State
process
Observation
process
Single-season occupancy models as HMMs
• No colonization (g=0) and no extinction (e=0) – closure assumption
Single-season occupancy models as HMMs
Initial states
State
process
Observation
process
• No colonization (g=0) and no extinction (e=0) – closure assumption
Advantages of the HMM formulation
1. (Almost?) all occupancy models in a unified framework
• Single-season, dynamic models
• Mixtures and random effects (see case study)
• Multistate models, with uncertainty
• Multispecies models
• False-positives (Chambert & Miller, submitted)
• …
2. Formal link between occupancy and CR communities
E-SURGE and occupancy models
• E-SURGE, software developed to analyze CR data with HMMs
Rémi Choquet Roger Pradel
The E-SURGE of occupancy models
• Model specification via user-friendly syntax
• Numerical tools (random effects, identifiability)
E-SURGE and occupancy models
occupancyinesurge.wikidot.com
Case study with
Eurasian lynx in
France
• Signs of presence
between 2002 and 2006
• 197 sites, 5 1-y periods
• Single-season
occupancy & detection
heterogeneity
Van Gogh
Detection heterogeneity
Random effect Finite mixture
Royle (2006), Gimenez & Choquet (2010) Pledger et al. (2003), Pradel (2005)
Results
Random effect Finite mixture
Average detection probability 0.5 in both models
Perspectives – based on CR experiences
1. Distribution mapping: unobserved states via Viterbi
2. Accounting for lack of independence:
• Trap-dependence
• Spatial autocorrelation (memory model)
Self-promotion…
Bonus slides
Finite mixture model
Model selection in Lynx case study
Multistate occupancy model - 1
Multistate occupancy model - 2
Multistate occupancy model - 3

More Related Content

PDF
HTA training - Dr Roisin Adams - March 27th 2016
PPT
Cost minimisation analysis in health economics
PPTX
Pharmacoeconomics & drug compliance
PPT
Basics of pharmacoeconomics_and_outcomes_research (2)
PPTX
Pharmacoeconomics
PDF
Making sense of citizen science data: A review of methods
PDF
Dealing with observer bias when mapping species distribution using citizen sc...
PDF
Individual Heterogeneity in Capture-Recapture Models
HTA training - Dr Roisin Adams - March 27th 2016
Cost minimisation analysis in health economics
Pharmacoeconomics & drug compliance
Basics of pharmacoeconomics_and_outcomes_research (2)
Pharmacoeconomics
Making sense of citizen science data: A review of methods
Dealing with observer bias when mapping species distribution using citizen sc...
Individual Heterogeneity in Capture-Recapture Models

Recently uploaded (20)

PDF
CuO Nps photocatalysts 15156456551564161
PPTX
endocrine - management of adrenal incidentaloma.pptx
PPTX
LIPID & AMINO ACID METABOLISM UNIT-III, B PHARM II SEMESTER
PDF
Integrative Oncology: Merging Conventional and Alternative Approaches (www.k...
PPTX
Introduction to Immunology (Unit-1).pptx
PDF
Chapter 3 - Human Development Poweroint presentation
PPTX
PMR- PPT.pptx for students and doctors tt
PPT
LEC Synthetic Biology and its application.ppt
PPT
Animal tissues, epithelial, muscle, connective, nervous tissue
PDF
Social preventive and pharmacy. Pdf
PPTX
bone as a tissue presentation micky.pptx
PPTX
Presentation1 INTRODUCTION TO ENZYMES.pptx
PPTX
A powerpoint on colorectal cancer with brief background
PPTX
AP CHEM 1.2 Mass spectroscopy of elements
PDF
Metabolic Acidosis. pa,oakw,llwla,wwwwqw
PPTX
congenital heart diseases of burao university.pptx
PDF
Packaging materials of fruits and vegetables
PDF
From Molecular Interactions to Solubility in Deep Eutectic Solvents: Explorin...
PPT
Cell Structure Description and Functions
PDF
Unit 5 Preparations, Reactions, Properties and Isomersim of Organic Compounds...
CuO Nps photocatalysts 15156456551564161
endocrine - management of adrenal incidentaloma.pptx
LIPID & AMINO ACID METABOLISM UNIT-III, B PHARM II SEMESTER
Integrative Oncology: Merging Conventional and Alternative Approaches (www.k...
Introduction to Immunology (Unit-1).pptx
Chapter 3 - Human Development Poweroint presentation
PMR- PPT.pptx for students and doctors tt
LEC Synthetic Biology and its application.ppt
Animal tissues, epithelial, muscle, connective, nervous tissue
Social preventive and pharmacy. Pdf
bone as a tissue presentation micky.pptx
Presentation1 INTRODUCTION TO ENZYMES.pptx
A powerpoint on colorectal cancer with brief background
AP CHEM 1.2 Mass spectroscopy of elements
Metabolic Acidosis. pa,oakw,llwla,wwwwqw
congenital heart diseases of burao university.pptx
Packaging materials of fruits and vegetables
From Molecular Interactions to Solubility in Deep Eutectic Solvents: Explorin...
Cell Structure Description and Functions
Unit 5 Preparations, Reactions, Properties and Isomersim of Organic Compounds...
Ad
Ad

My talk at ISEC 2014 (http://isec2014.sciencesconf.org/) on how to model occupancy data using hidden Markov models