CCS in an uncertain policy landscape - Prof Jim Watson at the UKCCSRC Biannual April 2014
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The document discusses the UK energy policy landscape, emphasizing the need for low carbon energy sources and managing uncertainties in investment and technology costs. It highlights the importance of public attitudes in energy transition and the crucial role of carbon capture and storage (CCS) amidst various challenges. The analysis suggests a shift in policy frameworks and a focus on energy efficiency to ensure successful decarbonization in the power, heat, and transport sectors.
CCS in an uncertain policy landscape - Prof Jim Watson at the UKCCSRC Biannual April 2014
- 1. Click to add title CCS in an Uncertain Policy Landscape Jim Watson, Research Director UKCCSRC Biannual Meeting, Cambridge, 2-3 April 2014
- 3. ‘We need to cut our energy costs. We’re going to do this by investing in new sources of energy: new nuclear power, renewables, and a shale gas revolution. We’re going to do this by promoting energy efficiency.’ George Osborne MP, Budget Speech, March 2014 Uncertain political context
- 4. Our energy security is best served by minimising our exposure to the volatile global fossil fuel markets, enhancing our energy efficiency and maximising home- grown low carbon energy, as well as cleaner indigenous reserves, such as natural gas, to help ease the low carbon transition. Ed Davey MP, Secretary of State for Energy & Climate Change, Mar 2014 Uncertain political context
- 5. Click to add title UKERC flagship project: Energy strategies under uncertainty Aims: To generate, synthesise and communicate evidence about the range and nature of the risks and uncertainties facing UK energy policy and the achievement policy goals To identify strategies for mitigating risks and managing uncertainties for public policy and the private sector
- 6. 3. Innovation systems & development Analysis using the CCC’s revised 4th carbon budget pathway to 2030 as a point of reference Methods for appraising uncertainty Detailed focus on CCC pathway elements: e.g. heat, power generation, electric vehicles Analysis of systemic drivers and impacts: natural resources, public attitudes and ecosystem services Includes engagement with ‘alternative’ higher carbon pathway Energy strategies under uncertainty
- 7. Energy strategies under uncertainty Keep the lights on & bills down at the same time Source: Committee on Climate
- 8. Power sector decarbonisation 6.TPA Tech costs too high Lack of tech progress Wrong type of capital Lack of capital Uncertainties & Power Sector Decarbonisation
- 9. Click to add titleInvestment uncertainties
- 10. Click to add titleTechnology cost uncertainties 2006 ranges from 2006 UK Energy White paper 2011 ranges from Arup 2011 and Parsons Brinckerhoff 2011
- 11. Power sector decarbonisation 6.TPA Bio- energy resources Public attitudes Tech costs too high Lack of tech progress Wrong type of capital Lack of capital Policy and politics Uncertainties & Power Sector Decarbonisation Eco- system services
- 12. Click to add titlePublic attitudes and values Public attitudes often framed very narrowly by expert debates: on ‘acceptance’ of specific technical options Publics often pragmatic about change, but unlikely to settle for change out of line with longer-term trajectories that reflect their underlying values. Beware of potential ‘non transitions’: continued fossil fuel use, carbon capture and storage and bio-energy If public values not included in decision-making and new ‘social contract’ for change, resistance to energy system transformations or specific conflicts more likely
- 13. Power sector decarbonisation 6.TPA Bio- energy resources EV Effective- ness Heat pump effective- ness Public attitudes Tech costs too high Lack of tech progress Wrong type of capital Lack of capital Policy and politics Transport and heat decarbonisation Uncertainties & Power Sector Decarbonisation Eco- system services
- 14. Heat sector decarbonisation Transport sector decarbonisation Power grid con- straints Heat pump costs; per- formance Electricit y decarb progress Transport and heat decarbonisation: More flexibility?
- 16. Heat sector decarbonisation Bio- energy resources Transport sector decarbonisation District heating business models Other low C heat vectors Power grid con- straints Heat pump costs; per- formance Energy efficiency progress Electricit y decarb progress Transport and heat decarbonisation: More flexibility? Transport modes / demand EV costs and per- formance Per- formance of other techs
- 17. Exploring uncertainties: electric vehicles Consumers preferences; characteristics; usage; knowledge Societal Public opinion; social norms Economic macroeconomics; commodity markets Technological vehicles, credentials Infrastructure Distribution; standards Policy, including regulations & targets Source: Morton, Anable and Brand, 2014
- 18. Click to add titleSome emerging conclusions Power sector decarbonisation by 2030 is critically important: o No shortage of capital, but policy frameworks, market structures & business models may need to change to attract that capital o Limited low carbon options to 2030: but will be tough to keep them all ‘in the low carbon race’. Limitations on political capital too? More flexibility with heat and transport decarbonisation: o Delayed electricity decarbonisation not a show stopper for heat o More action needed on energy efficiency to provide more flexibility o Support for demonstration & early deployment of heat & transport options (e.g. district heating; EVs) to ‘open up’ & test options Need to move beyond narrow framing of public attitudes: transitions that align with values more likely to be successful Natural resources and ecosystem service impacts may limit options and flexibility; driven partly by global trends
- 19. Click to add titleImplications for CCS Extent of CCS contribution to power (& industry) sector decarbonisation depends on relative costs / performance. Demonstration remains essential. Risks higher than for many other low carbon technologies: implications for finance availability CCS in group of potential ‘non transitions’ that need to be balanced by broader progress to sustainable energy CCS vulnerable to natural resource availability uncertainties, including for biomass availability Compared to nuclear and some renewables, CCS is ‘under the radar’ of political debate: but firm demonstrations are likely to change that
- 20. Click to add title Thanks http://www.ukerc.ac.uk https://twitter.com/watsonjim2