Koomeyoncomputingtrends v2
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The document summarizes research on trends in the electrical efficiency of computation over time. It finds that computations per kilowatt-hour have doubled approximately every 1.6 years since the 1940s. This efficiency improvement is linked to consistent doubling of transistors on chips every 1-2 years as described by Moore's Law. The trends suggest that mobile and distributed computing will continue becoming more feasible due to ongoing efficiency gains.
Koomeyoncomputingtrends v2
- 1. Assessing trends in the electrical efficiency of computation over time Jonathan G. Koomey, Ph.D. LBNL and Stanford University http://www.koomey.com Presented at CITRIS, UC Berkeley March 19, 2010 1
- 2. The key result: computations per kWh have doubled every 1.6 years since the 1940s Koomey, Jonathan G., Stephen Berard, Marla Sanchez, and Henry Wong. 2009b. Assessing trends in the electrical efficiency of computation over time. Oakland, CA: Analytics Press. August 17. <http://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/ecotech> 2
- 3. Moore’s law • Not a “law” but an empirical observation about components/chip – 1965: doubling every year – 1975: doubling every 2 years • Characterizes economics of chip production, not physical limits • Often imprecisely cited, interpretations changed over time (Mollick 2006) 3
- 5. Transistors/chip (000s) The doubling time from 1971 to 2006 is about 1.8 years. Data source: James Larus, Microsoft Corporation. 5
- 6. Origins of this work • I initially thought to replicate my recent work on costs, energy, and performance trends in servers (Koomey et al. 2009a), for computing more generally • Discovering Nordhaus (2007) led me to reorient my research – He analyzed costs and performance – I focused on energy and performance 6
- 7. First I made this graph Calculations per second per 2009$ of purchase cost 7
- 8. Then I made this one Computations per kWh 8
- 9. But this one really got me to investigate Computations per kWh 9
- 10. Method • Computations per kWh = Number of computations per hour at full load Measured electricity consumption per hour at full load (kWh) 10
- 11. Data • Performance from Nordhaus (2007) or normalized to that source using benchmarks for more recent computers • Used measured power data, either published (e.g. Weik 1955, 1961, 1964) or from archival or recent computers – with computer fully utilized – with screen power subtracted for portables 11
- 12. Performance trends • Performance trends with real software ≠ performance trends from benchmarks ≠ transistor trends! • Doubling time for performance per computer = 1.5 years in the PC era 12
- 13. Performance trends (2): Computations/s/computer Source: Nordhaus (2007) with additional data added by Koomey (2009b) 13
- 14. Because that’s where the computers are… • Power measurements conducted at – Microsoft computer archives – Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory – My in-laws’ basement – Erik Klein’s computer archives • Computer History Museum’s web sites and discussion forums 14
- 15. An oldie but a goodie 15
- 16. And another 16
- 17. Still another 17
- 18. Erik Klein, computer history buff 18
- 19. Good correlation, clear results • R2 for computations/kWh – 0.983 for all computers – 0.970 for PCs • Doubling time for computations/kWh – All computers: 1.6 years – PCs: 1.5 years – Vacuum tubes: 1.35 years • Big jump from tubes to transistors 19
- 20. Computing efficiency trends 20
- 21. Efficiency trends: PCs only 21
- 22. Implications • Actions taken to improve performance also improve computations per kWh – Transistors: Smaller, shorter distance source to drain, fewer electrons – Tubes: Smaller, lower capacitance • Trends make mobile and distributed computing ever more feasible (battery life doubles every 1.5 years at constant computing power) 22
- 23. Laptops growing fast (world installed base, billions) Sources—1985: Arstechnica + Koomey calcs 1996-2008: IDC 23
- 24. An example of mobile computing enabled by efficiency • Compacts trash 5 x • Sends text message when full • PC panel uses ambient light • An economic and environmental home run http://www.bigbellysolar.com 24
- 25. Implications (2) • We’re far from Feynman’s theoretical limit for computations/kWh – 1985: Factor of 1011 potential – 1985 to 2009: Improvement of < 105 • Assuming trends in chips continue for next 5-10 years, significant efficiency improvements still to come 25
- 26. Future work • Add more laptops to the data set (also PDAs, perhaps game consoles) • Investigate how trends might differ between mainframes, PCs, PDAs, laptops, and servers • Are power and performance trends for low-end chips different than for the most sophisticated CPUs? • Real world performance vs. benchmarks 26
- 27. Clock speed and Moore’s law Data source: James Larus, Microsoft Corporation. 27
- 28. A complexity: multiple cores Data source: James Larus, Microsoft Corporation. 28
- 29. Conclusions • Quantitative results – In the PC era (1976-2009) performance per computer and computations per kWh doubled every 1.5 years – From ENIAC to the present, computations per kWh doubled every 1.6 years • Performance and efficiency improvements inextricably linked. • Still far from theoretical limits • Big implications for mobile technologies 29
- 30. References • Feynman, Richard P. 2001. The Pleasure of Finding Things Out: The Best Short Works of Richard P. Feynman. London, UK: Penguin Books. • Koomey, Jonathan G., Christian Belady, Michael Patterson, Anthony Santos, and Klaus-Dieter Lange. 2009a. Assessing trends over time in performance, costs, and energy use for servers. Oakland, CA: Analytics Press. August 17. <http://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/ ecotech>. In press at IEEE Annals of the History of Computing. • Koomey, Jonathan G., Stephen Berard, Marla Sanchez, and Henry Wong. 2009b. Assessing trends in the electrical efficiency of computation over time. Oakland, CA: Analytics Press. August 17. <http://www.intel.com/pressroom/kits/ecotech> • Mollick, Ethan. 2006. "Establishing Moore’s Law." IEEE Annals of the History of Computing (Published by the IEEE Computer Society). July- September. pp. 62-75. 30
- 31. References (2) • Moore, Gordon E. 1965. "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits." In Electronics. April 19. • Moore, Gordon E. 1975. "Progress in Digital Integrated Electronics." IEEE, IEDM Tech Digest. pp. 11-13. <http://www.ieee.org/> • Nordhaus, William D. 2007. "Two Centuries of Productivity Growth in Computing." The Journal of Economic History. vol. 67, no. 1. March. pp. 128-159. <http://nordhaus.econ.yale.edu/recent_stuff.html> • Weik, Martin H. 1955. A Survey of Domestic Electronic Digital Computing Systems. Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland: Ballistic Research Laboratories. Report No. 971. December. <http://ed-thelen.org/comp-hist/BRL.html> • Weik, Martin H. 1961. A Third Survey of Domestic Electronic Digital Computing Systems. Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland: Ballistic Research Laboratories. Report No. 1115. March. <http://ed-thelen.org/comp-hist/BRL61.html> • Weik, Martin H. 1964. A Fourth Survey of Domestic Electronic Digital Computing Systems (Supplement to the Third Survey). Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland: Ballistic Research Laboratories. Report No. 1227. January. <http:// ed-thelen.org/comp-hist/BRL64.html> 31