Managing Uncertainty in Emergency Management Through Explanation
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The document discusses how uncertainty in emergency management arises from unclear cause-and-effect relationships, creating a partial understanding of crises. It emphasizes the need for emergency managers to develop explanations that connect observed effects with potential causes to manage this uncertainty effectively. Workshop-style processes are recommended to generate consensus on explanations, transforming uncertainty into certainty for better decision-making.
Managing Uncertainty in Emergency Management Through Explanation
- 1. Managing Uncertainty in Emergency Management Through Explanation Gregory Vigneaux, M.S. Operational Coherence @Gregory_Vig Session 7 14:10-14:30 Crises, Emergencies and Disasters – a Continuum of Challenges and Opportunities in the 21st Century 11th to 15th September 2023
- 2. • Uncertainty in the emergency manager's operational context is a product of unclear relationships of cause and effect. • Effects such as events, problems, and experiences, are observed without any discernable generative cause. • As a result, it is unclear as to why what is being observed in the world is happening. Crises, Emergencies and Disasters – a Continuum of Challenges and Opportunities in the 21st Century Uncertainty as Unclear Causality Effect Cause Uncertainty
- 3. • Uncertainty creates a partial world, where what is happening is known, but not why or how. Knowledge is incomplete. • No evident cause for an observed effect or effects is an indicator one or more effects are in the uncertain domain and signal strategies and tactics need to change. • The focus in this domain is on understanding effects (what is being observed and categorized as "known") to build towards forming explanations. Engaging with effects may provide insight into what their possible causes are. • Emergency managers should cautiously make decisions and design strategy and tactics. Uncertainty undermines the foundations for all three. Crises, Emergencies and Disasters – a Continuum of Challenges and Opportunities in the 21st Century The Uncertain Domain Effects Uncertainty
- 4. • To transition an uncertain effect to a certain one, it must be connected with a cause. Explanations perform this function and follow the format: "If this and this happens, then the result is such and such.” - Maturana • Intentional workshop-style processes of explanation propose causes for effects and unite the two. Uncertainty is brushed away as it is no longer unclear why the effect was experienced. The uncertainty is explained and therefore managed. • The causes generated by workshop participants join with effects to create a complete world. It is not the world in some natural sense, but an artificial one agreed upon by consensus and accepted by others. It is a world that satisfices. Crises, Emergencies and Disasters – a Continuum of Challenges and Opportunities in the 21st Century Uncertainty to CertaintyThrough Explanation Basis for Decision-making Cause Effect
- 5. Crises, Emergencies and Disasters – a Continuum of Challenges and Opportunities in the 21st Century Generative Mechanism Informal Condition Effect without cause (Uncertainty) Testable cause & effect (Managed Uncertainty) (Negotiation) (Causal Proposition) Iterative Explanatory Loop Based on the Work of Humberto Maturana Design
Editor's Notes
- #2: "We all do philosophy when we reflect on the fundamentals of whatever we do." -Humberto R. Maturana