Manoj discussant PhD Conference 2012

Export
Performance
on
Landlocked

Developing
Countries:
A
Discussion
on

Ramesh
Paudel’s
Paper

By

Manoj
K.
Pandey

About
the
Paper

Objec&ve
is
to
examine
the
determinants
of

export
performance
in
landlocked
developing

countries
and
compare
these
performances

with
other
developing
countries

Approach

1.  Augumented
Gravity
Model
Speciﬁca&on:

Ln(Xij,t)=F(Ln(GDPi,t),
Ln(GDPj,t),
Ln(Disij),
RERi,t,

Ln(PCGDPi,t),
Ln(PCGDPj,t),
D_LANij,t,
D_BORij,t
,

Rela&ve
Factor
Endowmenti,t,
D_Openi,t,

AFLLOCKj,t)

2.  Focus
only
on
Non-‐oil
exports
for
Landlocked

and
other
developing
countries

Approach

3.
Empirical
Evidences:
Cross-‐country
data
from

developing
countries
over
the
period

1995-‐2010
(15
year
panel)

4.
Econometric
methods:
POLS,
RE,
FE,
Hausman

and
Taylor
IV
(HT),
Poisson
Pseudo
Maximum

Likelihood
(PPML)

Key
Results

1.  LLDCs’
export
performance
seems
poor
as

compared
to
ODCs.

2.  Among
LLDCs’,
export
performance
ma`er

more
to
the
poorer
countries

3.  Distance
deter
the
exports

4.  African
LLDCs
are
at
par
with
other
LLDCs

Grey
Areas

A.

Use
of
Proper
model
speciﬁcaIon

1.  Mo&va&on
behind
choice
of
only
non-‐oil
exports
is
not

very
clear?

2.  Popula&on
of
export
countries
and
their
partner

countries
are
not
included
(supply
and
demand
side)??

3.  Why

Log
of
GDP
and
Log
of
PCGDP
are
used
together

in
the
same
model?
Mathema&cally,
log(GDP)
and

log(GDP/Popula&on)
is
connected
as
b1
log(GDP)
+b2

log(GDP/Popula&on)
=(b1+b2)log(GDP)
-‐b2log(Pop)

4.  Table
7,
8:
why
interac&on
of
landlocked
dummy
and

GDP
of
own
country
and
GDP
of
partner
country
are

not
used
together
in
the
model?

Grey
Areas

B.
Econometric
Results

1.  RFE
=|Import
Country
GDP-‐Export
Country

GDP|??
In
Table
7,
I
am
not
sure
how
to

explain
–ve
sign
of
RFE?

2.  Table
8,
signs
of
percapita
GDP
is
not
same
in

HT
(+ve)
AND
PPML
(-‐ve).
Why
it
is
so?

3.  Table
9,
what
is
the
actual
(aier
adjus&ng

interac&on
term)
coeﬃcient
of
Landlocked

dummy
in
4th
PPML
model?

4.  Table
10,
sign
of
partner’s
per
capita
GDP
is

not
consistent
in
diﬀerent
models’

Final
Comment

The
paper
contributes
to
the
empirical

literature
by
using
Gravity
model

framework
to
examine
determinants
of

Non-‐oil
exports
and
compare
performances

of
LLDC’s
with
the
ODCs
based
on
panel

data
econometric
methods.
However,
most

of
the
determinants
look
obvious,
some
of

results
are
not
robust
and
overall
the
paper

lacks
in-‐depth
analysis
on
the
policy
front.

Manoj discussant PhD Conference 2012

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