Markov model
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A Markov model is a mathematical modeling technique derived from matrix algebra that describes the transitions a cohort of patients make among a finite number of mutually exclusive and exhaustive health states over a series of short intervals or cycles. In a Markov model, patients are always in one of the defined health states and events are modeled as transitions between states. The contribution of utility to overall prognosis depends on the length of time spent in each health state. Transition probabilities are used to represent the likelihood of moving between states in each cycle. An example Markov model was provided to demonstrate these concepts.
Markov model
- 1. Markov model Pharmacoeconomics Nouran Hamza, B Pharm, MSc Freelance biostatistician
- 2. What is a Markov Model? Mathematicalmodelingtechnique,derivedfrommatrixalgebra,thatdescribesthetransitionsacohortofpatientsmakeamonganumberof mutuallyexclusiveandexhaustivehealthstate duringaseriesofshortintervalsorcycles
- 3. Properties of a Markov Model • Patientisalwaysinoneofafinitenumberofhealthstates • Eventsaremodeledastransitionsfromonestatetoanother • Contributionofutilitytooverallprognosisdependsonlengthoftimespentinhealthstates • Duringeachcycle,thepatientmaymakeatransitionfromonestatetoanother
- 4. Example Please note that in Markov model we use the probability ( convert rates or percent to probability
- 11. Please note that all the previous numbers are in probability terms if the problem state a number of population , or a specific cost, do all the pervious steps + multiplying by the stated population or cost
- 12. Construct a Markov model for a cohort of 5000 subject using the following