Modified PERT CPM diagram from network.pdf

Scheduling, PERT, Critical Path Analysis
1
Network Techniques
Chapter 8

Scheduling, PERT, Critical Path Analysis 2
INTRODUCTION
■ Schedule converts action plan into operating
time table
■ Basis for monitoring and controlling project
■ Scheduling more important in projects than
in production, because unique nature
■ Sometimes customer specified/approved
requirement-e.g: JKR projects
■ Based on Work Breakdown Structure (WBS)
Chapter 8

NETWORK TECHNIQUES
PERT CPM
-Program Evaluation and
Review Technique
- developed by the US
Navy with Booz
Hamilton Lockheed
- on the Polaris
Missile/Submarine
program 1958
Critical Path Method
Developed by El Dupont
for Chemical Plant
Shutdown Project- about
same time as PERT
✓ Both use same calculations, almost similar
✓ Main difference is probabilistic and deterministic in time estimation
✓ Gantt Chart also used in scheduling
Chapter 8

■ Graphical portrayal of activities and event
■ Shows dependency relationships between tasks/
activities in a project
■ Clearly shows tasks that must precede
(precedence) or follow (succeeding) other tasks
in a logical manner
■ Clear representation of plan – a powerful tool for
planning and controlling project
NETWORK
Chapter 8

Example of Simple Network –
Survey
Chapter 8

Example of Network –
More Complex
Chapter 8

DEFINITION OF TERMS IN A NETWORK
■ Activity : any portions of project (tasks) which required
by project, uses up resource and consumes
time – may involve labor, paper work,
contractual negotiations, machinery operations Activity
on Arrow (AOA) showed as arrow, AON – Activity on
Node
■ Event : beginning or ending points of one or more
activities, instantaneous point in time, also
called ‘nodes’
■ Network : Combination of all project activities and the events
ACTIVITY
PRECEEDING SUCCESSOR
EVENT
Chapter 8

Emphasis on Logic in Network Construction
■ Construction of network should be based on logical or
technical dependencies among activities
■ Example - before activity ‘Approve Drawing’ can be
started the activity ‘Prepare Drawing’ must be completed
■ Common error – build network on the basis of time logic
(a feeling for proper sequence ) see example below
WRONG !!!
CORRECT ✓
Chapter 8

Example 1- A simple network
Consider the list of four activities for making a simple product:
Activity Description Immediate
predecessors
A Buy Plastic Body -
B Design Component -
C Make Component B
D Assemble product A,C
Immediate predecessors for a particular activity are the activities
that, when completed, enable the start of the activity in question.
Chapter 8

Sequence of activities
■ Can start work on activities A and B anytime, since
neither of these activities depends upon the
completion of prior activities.
■ Activity C cannot be started until activity B has been
completed
■ Activity D cannot be started until both activities A and
C have been completed.
■ The graphical representation (next slide) is referred to
as the PERT/CPM network
Chapter 8

Network of Four Activities
1 3 4
2
A
B C
D
Arcs indicate project activities
Nodes correspond to the beginning
and ending of activities
Chapter 8

Example 2
Develop the network for a project with following activities and
immediate predecessors:
Activity Immediate
predecessors
A -
B -
C B
D A, C
E C
F C
G D,E,F
Try to do for the first five (A,B,C,D,E) activities
Chapter 8

Network of first five activities
1 3 4
2
A
B
C
D
5
E
We need to introduce
a dummy activity
Chapter 8

•Note how the network correctly identifies D, E, and F as the
immediate predecessors for activity G.
•Dummy activities is used to identify precedence relationships
correctly and to eliminate possible confusion of two or more activities
having the same starting and ending nodes
•Dummy activities have no resources (time, labor, machinery, etc) –
purpose is to PRESERVE LOGIC of the network
Network of Seven Activities
1 3 4
2
A
B
C
D
5
E
7
6
F
G
dummy
Chapter 8

EXAMPLES OF THE USE OF DUMMYACTIVITY
Dummy
RIGHT ✓
1
1
2
Activity c not required
for e
a
b
c
d
e
a
b
c
d
e
WRONG!
!!
RIGHT
✓
Network concurrent activities
1 2 1
2
3
a
WRONG!!!
a
b
b
WRONG !
RIGHT ✓
Chapter 8

1 1
2 2
3 3
4
a d
b e
c f
a d
b
e
f
c
WRONG!!! RIGHT!!!
a precedes d.
a and b precede e,
b and c precede f (a does not precede f)
Chapter 8

Scheduling with activity time
Activity Immediate Completion
predecessors Time (week)
A - 5
B - 6
C A 4
D A 3
E A 1
F E 4
G D,F 14
H B,C 12
I G,H 2
Total …… 51
This information indicates that the total time required to complete activities
is 51 weeks. However, we can see from the network that several of the
activities can be conducted simultaneously (A and B, for example).
Chapter 8

Earliest start & earliest finish time
■ We are interested in the longest path through the
network, i.e., the critical path.
■ Starting at the network’s origin (node 1) and using a
starting time of 0, we compute an earliest start (ES) and
earliest finish (EF) time for each activity in the network.
■ The expression EF = ES + t can be used to find the earliest
finish time for a given activity.
For example, for activity A, ES = 0 and t = 5; thus the
earliest finish time for activity A is
EF = 0 + 5 = 5
Chapter 8

Arc with ES & EF time
1
2
A [0,5]
5
Activity
ES = earliest start time
EF = earliest finish time
t = expected activity
time
Chapter 8

Network with ES & EF time
1
3
4
2
5
7
6
A
[
0
,
5
]
5
B[0,6]
6
C
[
5
,
9
]
4
D[5,8]
3
E[5,6]
1 F[6,10]
4
G
[
1
0
,
2
4
]
1
4
H[9,21]
12
I[24,26]
2
Earliest start time rule:
The earliest start time for an activity leaving a particular node is equal to
the largest of the earliest finish times for all activities entering the node.
Chapter 8

Activity, duration, ES, EF, LS, LF
2
3
C [5,9]
4 [8,12]
Activity
ES = earliest start time
EF = earliest finish time
LF = latest finish time
LS = latest start time
Chapter 8

■ To find the critical path we need a backward pass calculation.
■ Starting at the completion point (node 7) and using a latest
finish time (LF) of 26 for activity I, we trace back through the
network computing a latest start (LS) and latest finish time
for each activity
■ The expression LS = LF – t can be used to calculate latest start
time for each activity. For example, for activity I, LF = 26 and t
= 2, thus the latest start time for activity I is
LS = 26 – 2 = 24
Latest start & latest finish time
Chapter 8

Network with LS & LF time
1
3
4
2
5
7
6
A
[
0
,
5
]
5
[
0
,
5
]
B[0,6]
6[6,12]
C
[
5
,
9
]
4
[
8
,
1
2
]
D[5,8]
3[7,10]
E[5,6]
1[5,6]
F[6,10]
4[6,10]
G
[
1
0
,
2
4
]
1
4
[
1
0
,
2
4
]
H[9,21]
12[12,24]
I[24,26]
2[24,26]
Latest finish time rule:
The latest finish time for an activity entering a particular node is equal to
the smallest of the latest start times for all activities leaving the node.
Chapter 8

Slack or Free Time or Float
Slack is the length of time an activity can be delayed without affecting the
completion date for the entire project.
For example, slack for C = 3 weeks, i.e Activity C can be delayed up to 3
weeks
(start anywhere between weeks 5 and 8).
ES
5
LS
8
EF
9
LF-EF = 12 –9 =3
LS-ES = 8 – 5 = 3
LF-ES-t = 12-5-4 = 3
EF
12
2
3
C [5,9]
4 [8,12]
Chapter 8

Activity schedule for our example
Activity Earliest
start (ES)
Latest
start (LS)
Earliest
finish (EF)
Latest
finish (LF)
Slack
(LS-ES)
Critical
path
A 0 0 5 5 0 Yes
B 0 6 6 12 6
C 5 8 9 12 3
D 5 7 8 10 2
E 5 5 6 6 0 Yes
F 6 6 10 10 0 Yes
G 10 10 24 24 0 Yes
H 9 12 21 24 3
I 24 24 26 26 0 Yes
Chapter 8

IMPORTANT QUESTIONS
■ What is the total time to complete the project?
■ 26 weeks if the individual activities are completed on schedule.
■ What are the scheduled start and completion times for each activity?
■ ES, EF, LS, LF are given for each activity.
■ What activities are critical and must be completed as scheduled in order to
keep the project on time?
■ Critical path activities: A, E, F, G, and I.
■ How long can non-critical activities be delayed before they cause a delay
in the project’s completion time
■ Slack time available for all activities are given.
Chapter 8

Importance of Float (Slack) and Critical Path
1. Slack or Float shows how much allowance each activity has, i.e how
long it can be delayed without affecting completion date of project
2. Critical path is a sequence of activities from start to finish with zero
slack. Critical activities are activities on the critical path.
3. Critical path identifies the minimum time to complete project
4. If any activity on the critical path is shortened or extended, project
time will be shortened or extended accordingly
Chapter 8

5. So, a lot of effort should be put in trying to control activities along this path,
so that project can meet due date. If any activity is lengthened, be aware that
project will not meet deadline and some action needs to be taken.
6. If can spend resources to speed up some activity, do so only for critical
activities.
7. Don’t waste resources on non-critical activity, it will not shorten the project
time.
8. If resources can be saved by lengthening some activities, do so for non-
critical activities, up to limit of float.
9. Total Float belongs to the path
Importance of Float (Slack) and Critical Path (cont)
Chapter 8

PERT For Dealing With Uncertainty
■ So far, times can be estimated with relative certainty, confidence
■ For many situations this is not possible, e.g Research, development,
new products and projects etc.
■ Use 3 time estimates
m= most likely time estimate, mode.
a = optimistic time estimate,
b = pessimistic time estimate, and
Expected Value (TE) = (a + 4m + b) /6
Variance (V) = ( ( b – a) / 6 ) 2
Std Deviation (δ) = SQRT (V)
Chapter 8

Precedences And Project Activity Times
Immediate Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic EXP Var S.Dev
Activity Predecessor Time Time Time TE V σ
a - 10 22 22 20 4 2
b - 20 20 20 20 0 0
c - 4 10 16 10 4 2
d a 2 14 32 15 25 5
e b,c 8 8 20 10 4 2
f b,c 8 14 20 14 4 2
g b,c 4 4 4 4 0 0
h c 2 12 16 11 5.4 2.32
I g,h 6 16 38 18 28.4 5.33
j d,e 2 8 14 8 4 2
Chapter 8

The complete network
2 6
1 3 7
4 5
a
(20,4)
d
(15,25)
e
(10,4)
f
(14,4)
j
(8,4)
i
(18,28.4)
g
(4,0)
h
(11,5.4)
c
(10,4)
b
(20,0)
Chapter 8

Figure 8-13 The complete Network
2 6
1 3 7
4 5
b
(20,0)
d
(15,25)
e
(10,4)
f
(14,4)
j
(8,4)
i
(18,28.4)
g
(4,0)
h
(11,5.4)
c
(10,4)
CRIT. TIME = 43
EF=20 35
43
24
10
20
a
(20,4)
Chapter 8

Critical Path Analysis (PERT)
Activity LS ES Slacks Critical ?
a 0 0 0 Yes
b 1 0 1
c 4 0 4
d 20 20 0 Yes
e 25 20 5
f 29 20 9
g 21 20 1
h 14 10 4
i 25 24 1
j 35 35 0 Yes
Chapter 8

Assume, PM promised to complete the project in the fifty days.
What are the chances of meeting that deadline?
Calculate Z, where
Z = (D-S) / √V
Example,
D = 50; S(Scheduled date) = 20+15+8 =43; V = (4+25+4) =33
Z = (50 – 43) / 5.745
= 1.22 standard deviations.
The probability value of Z = 1.22, is 0.888
1.22
Chapter 8

What deadline are you 95% sure of meeting
Z value associated with 0.95 is 1.645
D = S + 5.745 (1.645)
= 43 + 9.45
= 52.45 days
Thus, there is a 95 percent chance of finishing the project by 52.45
days.
Chapter 8

Comparison Between CPM and PERT
CPM PERT
1 Uses network, calculate float or slack,
identify critical path and activities,
guides to monitor and controlling
project
Same as CPM
2 Uses one value of activity time Requires 3 estimates of activity time
Calculates mean and variance of time
3 Used where times can be estimated
with confidence, familiar activities
Used where times cannot be estimated
with confidence.
Unfamiliar or new activities
4 Minimizing cost is more important Meeting time target or estimating
percent completion is more important
5 Example: construction projects,
building one off machines, ships, etc
Example: Involving new activities or
products, research and development
etc
Chapter 8

BENEFITS OFCPM / PERT NETWORK
Consistent framework for planning, scheduling, monitoring,
and controlling project.
• Shows interdependence of all tasks, work packages, and
work units.
• Helps proper communications between departments and
functions.
• Determines expected project completion date.
• Identifies so-called critical activities, which can delay the
project completion time.
Chapter 8

• Identified activities with slacks that can be delayed for
specified periods without penalty, or from which resources
may be temporarily borrowed
• Determines the dates on which tasks may be started or must
be started if the project is to stay in schedule.
• Shows which tasks must be coordinated to avoid resource or
timing conflicts.
• Shows which tasks may run in parallel to meet project
completion date
BENEFITS OFCPM / PERT NETWORK (cont.)
Chapter 8

Gantt Charts
■ Since 1917; Useful for showing work vs time in form of bar charts
e.g.
• Can draw directly or from CPM/PERT network
Chapter 8

Modified PERT/CPM diagram from network
1
1
1
4
3
3
2
5
7
4
3
6
e
f
a d
b
c dummy
h
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Legend
[ Scheduled Start
] Scheduled Finish
− Actual Progress
⊗ Unavailable
Λ Current Date
◊ Milestone
Scheduled
♦ Milestone
Achieved
Days
Chapter 8

GANTT CHART
Chapter 8

Chapter 8

Gantt Charts and CPM/PERT Networks
Gantt Charts:
■ Even though a lot of info, easy to read and , understand to
monitor and follow progress.
■ Not very good for logical constraints
■ Should be used to COMPLEMENT networks, not replace
Chapter 8

RESOURCE ANALYSIS AND SCHEDULING
▪ Ability to carry out projects depend on the availability
of resources
▪Analyze resource implication
-How requirements can be met and changes needed
▪Use resources efficiently
▪Use network to give information about time, resources
and cost
Chapter 8

Activities D, E, F, G and H require fitters.
Construct a bar chart with activities at their EST indicating
person required and total float.
0 5 10 15 20
H
G
F
E
D
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
2 2 2 2
2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Time
Activity
Add up across all activities to get the total number of men
required.
Chapter 8

Convert the bar chart to a histogram
Shows: i) Variation from week to week (fitters)
ii) Maximum number of person required (12) during
week 5-6
Examine resource implication.
0 5 10 15 20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Total
number
of
man
required
Time
Resource analysis before scheduling
Chapter 8

Example
If only 8 fitters are available at any period during the projects:
New bar chart:
0 5 10 15 20
H
G
F
E
D
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
2 2 2 2
2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Time
Activity
Chapter 8

Additional Restriction – no fitters available until the end of
week 5.
Revised Schedule:
0 5 10 15 20
H
G
F
E
D
4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
2 2 2 2
2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Time
Activity
Chapter 8

Resource constraints relates to:
1. Variations in resource requirements
2. Resource availability
Smaller variations:
1. Easier control of the job
2. Better utilization of resources
Big variations:
1. Frequent moving of manpower
2. Require close control
3. Affect efficiency
Chapter 8

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Total
number
of
man
required
Time
Histogram showing large resource variations
Chapter 8

Modified PERT CPM diagram from network.pdf

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