1QFY2011 Result Update | Infrastructure
                                                                                                                                July 30, 2010



     Madhucon Projects                                                                          ACCUMULATE
                                                                                                CMP                                    Rs155
     Performance Highlights                                                                     Target Price                           Rs174
  




 Y/E March (Rs cr)           1QFY11             1QFY10 % chg (yoy)    4QFY10    % chg (qoq)     Investment Period               12 Months

 Net Sales                      407.4             284.8        43.0     486.4        (16.2)     Stock Info
 Operating Profit                  43.5            35.6        22.2      30.9         40.7      Sector                          Infrastructure
 Net Profit                        13.5            13.1         2.8       6.9         95.3      Market Cap (Rs cr)                      1,141
                                                                                                Beta                                      1.4
 Source: Company, Angel Research           




                                                                                                52 Week High / Low                     198/75
 Madhucon Projects (MPL) reported top-line growth ahead of our estimates, led
 primarily by pick up in the execution in the road and irrigation segments.                     Avg. Daily Volume
                                                                                                                                       61,030
 Operating margins and earnings also exceeded our expectations. MPL’s order                     Face Value (Rs)                             1
 book at 3.5x FY2010 revenues, gives revenue visibility for the next couple of                  BSE Sensex                             17,868
 years. However, MPL’s money raising plans have hit a road block due to the
                                                                                                Nifty                                   5,368
 regulatory norms and the company has raised debt in lieu of equity, which makes
                                                                                                Reuters Code                       MAPR.BO
 PE money coming in also a remote possibility. In line with this, we are changing
 our valuation methodology and not factoring in dilution. Hence, we downgrade                   Bloomberg Code                   MDHPJ@IN
 the stock to Accumulate.
 Top-line and margins surprise: MPL reported robust top-line yoy growth of 43.0%                Shareholding Pattern (%)
 to Rs407.4cr, above our expectation of 23.6%. OPM stood at 10.7% (12.5%). We
                                                                                                Promoters                                57.7
 expected margins to be weak due the problems in Andhra Pradesh and higher
                                                                                                MF / Banks / Indian Fls                  20.8
 share of power segment where MPL subcontracts majority of the work in turn
                                                                                                FII / NRIs / OCBs                        14.8
 diluting margins. MPL posted marginal yoy jump of 2.8% in net profit to Rs13.5cr.
                                                                                                Indian Public / Others                    6.8
 Outlook and Valuation: We believe that the key triggers to watch out for MPL
 should be the pickup in execution on the development business and building an
 attractive asset portfolio before it plans to raise money via IPOs. However, these
                                                                                                Abs. (%)                 3m      1yr      3yr
 plans would fructify somewhere in FY2012 only and based on the market
                                                                                                Sensex                   1.8   16.1      17.1
 conditions then. Hence, we believe that stock would be a sector performer till then
 and real value would be created only on unlocking at the subsidiary level. We                  MPL                    (7.4)   68.8      15.9
 downgrade the stock to Accumulate. We have assigned P/E of 10x to its FY2012E
 earnings, valued Madhucon Infra at 1.25x of equity invested, the real estate
 venture at cost and have arrived at an SOTP Target Price of Rs174.

 Key Financials (Standalone)
     Y/E March (Rs cr)                        FY2009      FY2010E     FY2011E    FY2012E
     Net Sales (incl op. income)              1,025.4     1,307.6     1,701.2     2,120.0
     % chg                                      38.9         27.5        30.1        24.6
     Adj. Net Profit                            46.9         43.2        56.8        72.8
     % chg                                      (0.7)        (7.8)       31.5        28.2
     FDEPS (Rs)                                   6.3         5.8         7.7         9.8
     EBITDA Margin (%)                          12.1         10.3         9.7         9.8
     P/E (x)                                    24.4         26.5        20.1        15.7      Shailesh Kanani
     RoAE (%)                                     9.1         7.8         9.5        11.0      022-40403800 Ext: 321
     RoACE (%)                                  10.3          9.7        10.4        10.9      shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com

     P/BV (x)                                     2.1         2.0         1.8         1.6
                                                                                               Aniruddha Mate
     EV/Sales (x)                                 1.3         1.1         1.0         0.8
                                                                                               022-40403800 Ext: 335
     EV/EBITDA (x)                              11.1         10.7        10.2         8.3      aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com
     Source: Company, Angel Research

Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report                                                                             1
MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update




Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 Performance (Standalone)
Y/E March (Rs cr)                  1QFY11   1QFY10       4QFY10                  % chg (yoy)        % chg (qoq)               FY2010              FY2009               % chg
Net Sales                           407.4    284.8         486.4                        43.0                   (16.2)         1307.6              1025.4                27.5
Total Expenditure                   363.9    249.2         455.5                        46.0                   (20.1)         1173.4               901.5                30.2
Operating Profit                     43.5      35.6           30.9                      22.2                     40.7          134.2               124.0                 8.3
OPM (%)                              10.7      12.5               6.4                           -                     -         10.3                   12.1                    -
Interest                             10.3       6.7               7.8                   53.4                     31.0           25.8                   26.6             (2.8)
Depreciation                         11.9      10.2           11.8                      16.6                      1.2           44.9                   43.3              3.5
Non Operating Income                  0.3       1.8               0.2                 (85.4)                     14.5              4.6                 19.1            (75.9)
Nonrecurring items                    0.0       0.0               0.0                           -                     -            0.0                  0.0                    -
Profit Before tax                    21.5      20.5           11.5                         5.3                   87.5           68.1                   73.1             (6.8)
Tax                                   8.1       7.4               4.6                      9.6                   76.0           24.9                   26.0             (4.3)
Reported Net Profit                  13.5      13.1               6.9                      2.8                   95.3           43.2                   47.1             (8.3)
PAT (%)                               3.3       4.6               1.4                           -                     -            3.3                  4.6                    -
Reported EPS                          1.8       1.8               0.9                      2.8                   95.3              5.8                  6.4             (8.3)
Source: Company, Angel Research;

                                            Exhibit 2: 1QFY2011Actual v/s Estimates
                                                                                                              Estimates                  Actual                Variation
                                             Net Sales                                                           352.0                   407.4                          15.7
                                             OPM (%)                                                               7.3                    10.7                 337.6bp
                                             PAT                                                                   5.5                    13.5                         144.6
                                             Source: Company, Angel Research

                                            Top-line beats estimates… MPL reported robust top-line growth of 43.0% to
                                            Rs407.4cr, above our expectation of 23.6%. This was mainly on account of pick up
                                            in the road and irrigation space. Management has indicated pick up in irrigation
                                            projects in Andhra Pradesh and has seen a drop in receivables from Rs42cr in the
                                            last quarter to Rs18cr in 1QFY2011. Thus, going ahead, we believe that the good
                                            show on the top-line front will continue.


                                            Exhibit 3: Quarterly trend in revenues (Rs cr)

                                                                                                                                             49.2
                                                600      53.1
                                                500                                                                                                           43.0
                                                                                      38.8
                                                400                                                                            23.3
                                                                                                    18.8
                                                300                     13.0                                       4.9
                                                200
                                                100
                                                  0
                                                         2QFY09



                                                                        3QFY09



                                                                                       4QFY09



                                                                                                     1QFY10



                                                                                                                   2QFY10



                                                                                                                                3QFY10



                                                                                                                                              4QFY10



                                                                                                                                                              1QFY11




                                                                                  Sales (Rs cr, LHS)               Growth (yoy %, RHS)



                                             Source: Company, Angel Research




July 30, 2010                                                                                                                                                              2
MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update



                                                                            …ditto operating margins and bottom-line: For 1QFY2011, OPM came in at
                                                                            10.7% (12.5%) as against our estimate of 7.3%. We had expected margins to be
                                                                            under pressure given the problems in Andhra Pradesh and higher share of power
                                                                            segment where MPL subcontracts majority of the work thereby diluting margins.
                                                                            On the bottom-line front, the company posted a marginal 2.8% yoy jump to
                                                                            Rs13.5cr, which was subdued mainly on account of higher interest cost.



Exhibit 4: Quarterly EBITDA trend                                                             Exhibit 5: Quarterly bottom-line trend

  50                                                                                   20.0      16             6.1                                                                   7.0
        16.6                                                                                     14    5.3                           4.6                                     3.3      6.0
  40                                 12.5               12.4                                     12                                             4.7
                                               11.2                                    15.0                                                                                           5.0
  30                                                                                             10                         2.4                                                       4.0
                    10.3 7.4                                                           10.0       8                                                                 1.4
                                                                                                  6                                                      3.9                          3.0
  20                                                                                                                                                                                  2.0
                                                                                                  4
  10                                                             6.4 10.7              5.0        2                                                                                   1.0
                                                                                                  0                                                                                   -
   0                                                                                   -



                                                                                                       2QFY09

                                                                                                                3QFY09

                                                                                                                            4QFY09

                                                                                                                                     1QFY10

                                                                                                                                                2QFY10

                                                                                                                                                           3QFY10

                                                                                                                                                                    4QFY10

                                                                                                                                                                             1QFY11
         2QFY09

                  3QFY09

                            4QFY09

                                      1QFY10

                                               2QFY10

                                                        3QFY10

                                                                   4QFY10

                                                                              1QFY11




                     EBITDA (Rs cr, LHS)                   EBITDAM (%, RHS)                                              PAT (Rs cr, LHS)                      PATM (%, RHS)


Source: Company, Angel Research                                                               Source: Company, Angel Research

                                                                            Order book analysis

                                                                            MPL’s order book, as on 1QFY2011, stood at Rs4,615cr (3.5x FY2010 revenues),
                                                                            which is dominated by the power (37.9%) and irrigation (26.0) segments. The
                                                                            balance is contributed by the roads, real estate and mining segments. We believe
                                                                            that ~20% of MPL’s orders are either slow moving/pending financial closure,
                                                                            which would take time to start contributing to revenues. We believe that funding
                                                                            and overall liquidity plays a big role in MPL’s growth, given that ~71% of the
                                                                            orders are in house.


Exhibit 6: 1QFY2011 order backlog - Sector wise (Rs cr)                                       Exhibit 7: 1QFY2011 order backlog - Client wise (Rs cr)



              375          140
                                                                        Irrigation
                                      1,200                                                                                                   1,200
        1,150                                                           Power                                                                                                   Government
                                                                        Roads                             3,275                                                                 Private
                                     1,750                                                                                                                          140
                                                                        Real Estate                                                                                             Captive
                                                                        Mining




Source: Company, Angel Research                                                               Source: Company, Angel Research




July 30, 2010                                                                                                                                                                                3
MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update



                                            Change in valuation methodology

                                            MPL had decided to bundle all its development projects and list that entity
                                            (Madhucon Infra) by 1HFY2011 and raise Rs300-500cr. But, the issue had to be
                                            postponed by a year as stipulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India
                                            (Sebi) norms, wherein a company has to wait for a year after re-pledging of shares
                                            before it can file the draft red herring prospectus. Thus, owing to the delay in
                                            going public, management was looking at pre-IPO fund raising. Private equity was
                                            one of the options being considered. But, with the issue of NCDs, there will be no
                                            pre-IPO placement.

                                            Madhucon Infra has two operational highways, two will begin tolling shortly and
                                            funds for the other are yet to be tied up. The company is also developing a
                                            1,920mw thermal power project in Krishnapatnam and a coal mine in Indonesia.
                                            Against this backdrop, we are not factoring in dilution and changing our valuation
                                            methodology to price-to-book basis (1.25x equity invested). In line with this, our
                                            target price stands revised to Rs174 (Rs190).

                                            Outlook and Valuation
                                            We believe the key triggers to watch out for MPL should be the pick up in execution
                                            in the development business and building of an attractive asset portfolio before it
                                            plans to raise money via IPOs. However, these plans would fructify somewhere in
                                            FY2012 only and based on the market conditions prevailing then. Hence, we
                                            believe that till then the stock would be a sector performer and real value would be
                                            created only on unlocking at the subsidiary level. We downgrade the stock to
                                            Accumulate.

                                            We have valued MPL at ~30% discount to larger peers like NCC, IVRCL, HCC,
                                            etc., given its scale of operations, high leverage on the balance sheet, consistent
                                            delays in expansion plans and high dependence on captive orders for its core
                                            construction growth. Hence, we have assigned a P/E of 10x to its FY2012E core
                                            construction earnings of Rs9.8, valued its asset owning arm, Madhucon Infra, at
                                            1.25x of equity invested, real estate venture on land cost and arrived at an SOTP
                                            Target Price of Rs174.

Exhibit 8: SOTP target price
Business Segment                  Methodology                      Remarks               Rs cr          Rs/share        % to TP
MPL- Parent                               P/E        10x FY2012E earnings                728                98.4           56.5
Madhucon Infra.                          P/BV          1.25x equity invested             533                72.1           41.4
Real Estate                               BV           9 acres at Kukatpally               27                   3.6           2.1
Total                                                                                  1,268               174.1              100
Source: Company, Angel Research

Exhibit 9: Change in Estimates
                                                     FY2011E                                        FY2012E
                                    Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates Variation Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates Variation
Revenues                                1,701.2          1,701.2               -      2,120.0           2,120.0           -
EBITDA Margins                            8.9               9.7            9.0          9.8               9.8             -
PAT                                      47.7              56.8           19.1         72.8              72.8             -
Source: Company, Angel Research




July 30, 2010                                                                                                                   4
MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update



                Investment Argument

                Robust order book: MPL has an order book Rs4,615cr, which is spread across
                segments of power, highway and irrigation. The order book has witnessed traction
                from the power segment, in recent times, particularly from the in-house division
                (captive orders constitute ~70% of the total order book). Therefore, we believe that
                the funds raised from the recent NCD issue would ensure that the in-house projects
                are on time and the resultant order inflow for the construction arm.




July 30, 2010                                                                                     5
MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update




Exhibit 10: Recommendation Summary
  Company       CMP     TP          Rating             Top-line                                             EPS                                        Adj. P/E               OB/
                                                                                         CAGR                                      CAGR
                (Rs)    (Rs)                        FY10    FY11E       FY12E                    FY10       FY11E FY12E                    FY10        FY11E      FY12E       Sale
                                                                                           (%)                                       (%)
 CCCL              86          - Neutral            1,976    2,444           2,871        20.5        5.0         6.0        7.5    22.5       17.2        14.4    11.5         2.3
 Gammon           214          - Neutral            4,489    5,575           6,607        21.3        8.4     10.0          12.1    20.0       13.0        11.0         9.0     2.5
 HCC              133          - Neutral            3,629    4,146           4,900        16.2        2.7         3.2        3.8    18.8       21.6        18.4    15.3         4.7
 IRB Infra        263          - Neutral            1,705    2,778           3,580        44.9    11.6        12.3          14.5    11.8       22.2        20.8    17.7              -
 IVRCL            176    216           Buy          5,492    6,663           8,294        22.9        7.8         9.6       12.0    23.9       16.3        13.3    10.6         4.3
 JP Assoc.        121    174           Buy         10,316   13,281          17,843        31.5        4.7         5.2        7.7    28.5       26.0        23.2    15.8              -
 Punj Lloyd       130    170           Buy         10,539   11,088          13,407        12.8   (11.1)           8.3       12.2       -          -        15.8    10.7         2.8
 NCC              178          - Neutral            4,778    5,913           6,758        18.9        7.8     10.0          10.7    17.4       22.8        17.8    16.6         3.6
 Sadbhav        1,290          - Neutral            1,257    1,560           1,911        23.3    43.0        57.5          69.5    27.1       20.3        15.2    12.5         5.4
 Simplex In.      476    570           Buy          4,555    5,535           6,428        18.8    25.7        31.9          40.7    25.9       18.5        14.9    11.7         2.5
 Patel Engg.      409    563           Buy          3,081    3,685           4,297        18.1    23.4        31.2          32.9    18.6       13.1         9.8         9.3     3.5
 MPL              155    174         Accu.         1,308     1,701          2,120        27.3         5.8         7.7       9.8    29.8        13.2        10.1     7.9         7.8
 L&T            1,863          - Neutral           37,035   44,047          55,519        22.4    47.5        55.1          68.9    20.4       30.9        26.7    21.3         3.0

Source: Company, Angel Research




Exhibit 11: Recommendation Summary - SOTP break up
 Company                            Core Const.             Real Estate                  Road BOT                   Invst. In Subsidiaries                     Others           Total
                               Rs       % to TP        Rs         % to TP        Rs        % to TP                  Rs             % to TP            Rs      % to TP                Rs
 CCCL                          89            100        -               -            -            -                     -                  -           -            -                89
 Gammon India              121                54        -               -            -            -                     -                  -      104              46            225
 HCC                           51             40      59              47         16              13                     -                  -           -            -            126
 IRB Infra                 113                41       3               1        154              56                     5                  2           -            -            275
 IVRCL                     168                78        -               -            -            -                 48                 22              -            -            216
 JP Assoc.                     65             38      41              23             -            -                     -                  -          68           39            174
 Punj Lloyd                170               100        -               -            -            -                     -                  -           -            -            170
 NCC                       152                82      18              10         16              8                      -                  -           -            -            186
 Sadbhav                   834                67        -               -       418              33                     -                  -           -            -          1,252
 Simplex In.               570               100        -               -            -            -                     -                  -           -            -            570
 Patel Engg                460                82     103              18             -            -                     -                  -           -            -            563
 Madhucon                      98             56       4               2             -            -                 72                 41              -            -            174
 L&T                    1,447                 79        -               -            -           --               394                  21              -            -          1,841

 Source: Company, Angel Research




July 30, 2010                                                                                                                                                                        6
MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update




                Profit & Loss Statement (Standalone)
                Y/E March (Rs cr)                  FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E
                Net Sales                            510    738    1,025    1,308    1,701   2,120
                Other operating income                  -      -        -        -       -         -
                Total operating income               510    738    1,025    1,308    1,701   2,120
                % chg                                49.1   44.7    38.9     27.5     30.1    24.6
                Total Expenditure                    433    631     901     1,173    1,536   1,913
                Net Raw Materials                    347    504     706     1,034    1,208   1,495
                Other Mfg costs                       33     73     118          -    201     255
                Personnel                             18     27       43       45      70      91
                Other                                 34     27       35       94      58      72
                EBITDA                                77    107     124      134      165     207
                % chg                                60.9   39.6    15.5      8.3     23.1    25.5
                (% of Net Sales)                     15.1   14.5    12.1     10.3      9.7     9.8
                Depreciation& Amortisation            24     34       43       45      49      59
                EBIT                                  53     73       81       89     116     148
                % chg                                72.3   38.4     9.9     10.9     29.6    27.9
                (% of Net Sales)                     10.4    9.9     7.9      6.8      6.8     7.0
                Interest & other Charges              11     16       27       26      41      51
                Other Income                         15.6   12.6    19.1      4.6     10.0    12.0
                (% of PBT)                           27.1   18.2    26.1      6.8     11.8    11.0
                Recurring PBT                         57     70       73       68      85     109
                % chg                                56.8   21.2     5.2     (6.8)    24.5    28.2
                Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.)            -      -        -        -       -         -
                PBT (reported)                        57     70       73       68      85     109
                Tax                                   16     18       26       25      28      36
                (% of PBT)                           27.6   25.4    35.6     36.6     33.0    33.0
                PAT (reported)                        42     52       47       43      57      73
                Add: Share of ass.                      -      -        -        -       -         -
                Less: Minority interest (MI)            -      -        -        -       -         -
                Prior period items                      -      -        -        -       -         -
                PAT after MI (reported)               42     52       47       43      57      73
                ADJ. PAT                              42     47       47       43      57      73
                % chg                                42.0   13.2    (0.7)    (7.8)    31.5    28.2
                (% of Net Sales)                      8.2    6.4     4.6      3.3      3.3     3.4
                Basic EPS (Rs) (Reported)             5.6    7.0     6.4      5.8      7.7     9.8
                Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) (Diluted)      5.6    6.4     6.3      5.8      7.7     9.8
                % chg                                42.0   13.2    (0.7)    (7.8)    31.5    28.2




July 30, 2010                                                                                  7
MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update




                Balance Sheet (Standalone)
                Y/E March (Rs cr)            FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
                SOURCES OF FUNDS
                Equity Share Capital            7.4     7.4     7.4     7.4       7.4       7.4
                Preference Capital                -       -       -       -         -         -
                Reserves& Surplus             440.5   485.2   528.6   567.5    620.0     688.7
                Shareholders Funds            447.9   492.6   536.0   574.9    627.4     696.1
                Minority Interest                 -       -       -       -         -         -
                Total Loans                   201.2   196.2   319.9   380.0    628.4     739.0
                Deferred Tax Liability          7.6    12.2    12.4    12.4     12.4      12.4
                Total Liabilities             656.7   701.0   868.3   967.4   1,268.2   1,447.5
                APPLICATION OF FUNDS
                Gross Block                   293.6   378.8   461.5   546.5    641.5     761.5
                Less: Acc. Depreciation        98.0   130.8   173.1   218.0    267.3     326.5
                Net Block                     195.6   248.0   288.4   328.6    374.2     435.0
                Capital Work-in-Progress          -       -       -       -         -         -
                Investments                   231.1   299.7   372.8   372.8    372.8     372.8
                Current Assets                581.6   708.6   715.0   869.3   1,299.8   1,732.0
                Inventories                    71.9   113.5    51.7   130.8    166.8     212.0
                Sundry Debtors                147.6    92.2    87.8   125.4    233.0     348.5
                Cash                          138.1   101.6    84.8    90.1     83.4     153.9
                Loans & Advances              222.7   401.2   490.8   523.0    816.6    1,017.6
                Other                           1.4       -       -       -         -         -
                Current liabilities           351.6   555.3   507.8   603.3    778.5    1,092.3
                Net Current Assets            230.0   153.3   207.2   266.0    521.2     639.8
                Misc. Exp. not written off        -       -       -       -         -         -
                Total Assets                  656.7   701.0   868.3   967.4   1,268.2   1,447.5




July 30, 2010                                                                                8
MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update




                Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated)
                Y/E March (Rs cr)                  FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
                Profit before tax (excluding MI)     57.4     69.5     73.1     68.1      84.8     108.7
                Depreciation                         23.9     33.9     43.3     44.9      49.3      59.2
                Change in Working Capital           (21.0)   (40.2)    70.7     53.5     261.9      48.0
                Less: Other income                   15.6     12.6     19.1      4.6      10.0      12.0
                Direct taxes paid                    15.8     22.3     26.0     24.9      28.0      35.9
                Cash Flow from Operations            70.9    108.8      0.7     29.9    (165.7)     72.0
                (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets       (104.6)   (85.3)   (82.7)   (85.0)    (95.0)   (120.0)
                (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments        (229.8)   (68.6)   (73.1)        -         -         -
                Other income                         15.6     12.6     19.1      4.6      10.0      12.0
                Cash Flow from Investing           (318.8) (141.2) (136.7)     (80.4)    (85.0)   (108.0)
                Issue of Equity                          -        -        -        -         -         -
                Inc./(Dec.) in loans                 97.7     (5.0)   123.7     60.1     248.4     110.7
                Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax)             4.2      2.6      3.5      4.3       4.3       4.2
                Others                                4.0      3.0     (1.0)        -         -         -
                Cash Flow from Financing             97.6     (4.6)   119.2     55.8     244.0     106.5
                Inc./(Dec.) in Cash                (150.4)   (37.0)   (16.8)     5.3      (6.7)     70.5
                Opening Cash balances               288.9    138.5    101.5     84.7      90.1      83.3
                Closing Cash balances               138.5    101.5     84.7     90.1      83.3     153.9




July 30, 2010                                                                                       9
MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update




                Key Ratios
                Y/E March                       FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E
                Valuation Ratio (x)
                P/E (on FDEPS)                    27.4   24.2   24.4    26.5    20.1    15.7
                P/CEPS                            17.4   14.1   12.7    13.0    10.8     8.7
                P/BV                               2.6    2.3    2.1     2.0     1.8     1.6
                Dividend yield (%)                 0.6    0.4    0.5     0.3     0.3     0.3
                EV/Sales                           2.4    1.7    1.3     1.1     1.0     0.8
                EV/EBITDA                         15.7   11.5   11.1    10.7    10.2     8.3
                EV / Total Assets                  1.8    1.8    1.6     1.5     1.3     1.2
                Per Share Data (Rs)
                EPS (Basic)                        5.6    7.0    6.4     5.8     7.7     9.8
                EPS (fully diluted)                5.6    6.4    6.3     5.8     7.7     9.8
                Cash EPS                           8.9   11.0   12.2    11.9    14.3    17.8
                DPS                                1.0    0.6    0.8     0.5     0.5     0.5
                Book Value                        60.5   66.5   72.4    77.7    84.7    94.0
                Dupont Analysis
                EBIT margin                       10.4    9.9    7.9     6.8     6.8     7.0
                Tax retention ratio                0.7    0.7    0.6     0.6     0.7     0.7
                Asset turnover (x)                 1.0    1.3    1.5     1.6     1.6     1.7
                ROIC (Post-tax)                    7.4    9.8    7.5     6.8     7.5     8.0
                Cost of Debt (Post Tax)            4.0    6.2    6.6     4.7     5.5     5.0
                Leverage (x)                       0.1    0.2    0.3     0.5     0.7     0.9
                Operating ROE                      7.9   10.4    7.8     7.8     9.0    10.5
                Returns (%)
                ROACE (Pre-tax)                    8.1   10.8   10.3     9.7    10.4    10.9
                Angel ROIC (Pre-tax)              10.2   13.1   11.7    10.8    11.2    12.0
                ROAE                               9.3   10.0    9.1     7.8     9.5    11.0
                Turnover ratios (x)
                Asset Turnover (G.B)               1.7    2.2    2.4     2.6     2.9     3.0
                Inventory / Sales (days)           51     46      29      25     32      33
                Receivables (days)                106     59      32      30     38      50
                Payables (days)                   312    251     187    184     193     133
                WC cycle (ex-cash) (days)          66     36      31      42     66      80
                Solvency ratios (x)
                Net debt to equity                 0.1    0.2    0.4     0.5     0.9     0.8
                Net debt to EBITDA                 0.8    0.9    1.9     2.2     3.3     2.8
                Interest Cov. (EBIT/Interest)      4.7    4.5    3.0     3.5     2.8     2.9




July 30, 2010                                                                            10
MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update


  Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800                E-mail: research@angeltrade.com                   Website: www.angeltrade.com

  DISCLAIMER
  This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment
  decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make
  such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies
  referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and
  risks of such an investment.

  Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make
  investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this
  document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within.

  Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and
  trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's
  fundamentals.

  The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable
  sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this
  document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way
  responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report.
  Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify,
  nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While
  Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory,
  compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so.
  This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced,
  redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly.

  Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or
  other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in
  the past.

  Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in
  connection with the use of this information.

  Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please
  refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and
  its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report.




 Disclosure of Interest Statement                                                   MPL
 1. Analyst ownership of the stock                                                  No
 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock                            Yes
 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock                 No
 4. Broking relationship with company covered                                       No

 Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.



 Ratings (Returns) :             Buy (> 15%)                      Accumulate (5% to 15%)                 Neutral (-5 to 5%)
                                 Reduce (-5% to 15%)              Sell (< -15%)




July 30, 2010                                                                                                                             11

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MPL

  • 1. 1QFY2011 Result Update | Infrastructure July 30, 2010 Madhucon Projects ACCUMULATE CMP Rs155 Performance Highlights Target Price Rs174   Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 % chg (yoy) 4QFY10 % chg (qoq) Investment Period 12 Months Net Sales 407.4 284.8 43.0 486.4 (16.2) Stock Info Operating Profit 43.5 35.6 22.2 30.9 40.7 Sector Infrastructure Net Profit 13.5 13.1 2.8 6.9 95.3 Market Cap (Rs cr) 1,141 Beta 1.4 Source: Company, Angel Research   52 Week High / Low 198/75 Madhucon Projects (MPL) reported top-line growth ahead of our estimates, led primarily by pick up in the execution in the road and irrigation segments. Avg. Daily Volume 61,030 Operating margins and earnings also exceeded our expectations. MPL’s order Face Value (Rs) 1 book at 3.5x FY2010 revenues, gives revenue visibility for the next couple of BSE Sensex 17,868 years. However, MPL’s money raising plans have hit a road block due to the Nifty 5,368 regulatory norms and the company has raised debt in lieu of equity, which makes Reuters Code MAPR.BO PE money coming in also a remote possibility. In line with this, we are changing our valuation methodology and not factoring in dilution. Hence, we downgrade Bloomberg Code MDHPJ@IN the stock to Accumulate. Top-line and margins surprise: MPL reported robust top-line yoy growth of 43.0% Shareholding Pattern (%) to Rs407.4cr, above our expectation of 23.6%. OPM stood at 10.7% (12.5%). We Promoters 57.7 expected margins to be weak due the problems in Andhra Pradesh and higher MF / Banks / Indian Fls 20.8 share of power segment where MPL subcontracts majority of the work in turn FII / NRIs / OCBs 14.8 diluting margins. MPL posted marginal yoy jump of 2.8% in net profit to Rs13.5cr. Indian Public / Others 6.8 Outlook and Valuation: We believe that the key triggers to watch out for MPL should be the pickup in execution on the development business and building an attractive asset portfolio before it plans to raise money via IPOs. However, these Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr plans would fructify somewhere in FY2012 only and based on the market Sensex 1.8 16.1 17.1 conditions then. Hence, we believe that stock would be a sector performer till then and real value would be created only on unlocking at the subsidiary level. We MPL (7.4) 68.8 15.9 downgrade the stock to Accumulate. We have assigned P/E of 10x to its FY2012E earnings, valued Madhucon Infra at 1.25x of equity invested, the real estate venture at cost and have arrived at an SOTP Target Price of Rs174. Key Financials (Standalone) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales (incl op. income) 1,025.4 1,307.6 1,701.2 2,120.0 % chg 38.9 27.5 30.1 24.6 Adj. Net Profit 46.9 43.2 56.8 72.8 % chg (0.7) (7.8) 31.5 28.2 FDEPS (Rs) 6.3 5.8 7.7 9.8 EBITDA Margin (%) 12.1 10.3 9.7 9.8 P/E (x) 24.4 26.5 20.1 15.7 Shailesh Kanani RoAE (%) 9.1 7.8 9.5 11.0 022-40403800 Ext: 321 RoACE (%) 10.3 9.7 10.4 10.9 shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com P/BV (x) 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 Aniruddha Mate EV/Sales (x) 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 022-40403800 Ext: 335 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.1 10.7 10.2 8.3 aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com Source: Company, Angel Research Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1
  • 2. MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 Performance (Standalone) Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY10 4QFY10 % chg (yoy) % chg (qoq) FY2010 FY2009 % chg Net Sales 407.4 284.8 486.4 43.0 (16.2) 1307.6 1025.4 27.5 Total Expenditure 363.9 249.2 455.5 46.0 (20.1) 1173.4 901.5 30.2 Operating Profit 43.5 35.6 30.9 22.2 40.7 134.2 124.0 8.3 OPM (%) 10.7 12.5 6.4 - - 10.3 12.1 - Interest 10.3 6.7 7.8 53.4 31.0 25.8 26.6 (2.8) Depreciation 11.9 10.2 11.8 16.6 1.2 44.9 43.3 3.5 Non Operating Income 0.3 1.8 0.2 (85.4) 14.5 4.6 19.1 (75.9) Nonrecurring items 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - 0.0 0.0 - Profit Before tax 21.5 20.5 11.5 5.3 87.5 68.1 73.1 (6.8) Tax 8.1 7.4 4.6 9.6 76.0 24.9 26.0 (4.3) Reported Net Profit 13.5 13.1 6.9 2.8 95.3 43.2 47.1 (8.3) PAT (%) 3.3 4.6 1.4 - - 3.3 4.6 - Reported EPS 1.8 1.8 0.9 2.8 95.3 5.8 6.4 (8.3) Source: Company, Angel Research; Exhibit 2: 1QFY2011Actual v/s Estimates Estimates Actual Variation Net Sales 352.0 407.4 15.7 OPM (%) 7.3 10.7 337.6bp PAT 5.5 13.5 144.6 Source: Company, Angel Research Top-line beats estimates… MPL reported robust top-line growth of 43.0% to Rs407.4cr, above our expectation of 23.6%. This was mainly on account of pick up in the road and irrigation space. Management has indicated pick up in irrigation projects in Andhra Pradesh and has seen a drop in receivables from Rs42cr in the last quarter to Rs18cr in 1QFY2011. Thus, going ahead, we believe that the good show on the top-line front will continue. Exhibit 3: Quarterly trend in revenues (Rs cr) 49.2 600 53.1 500 43.0 38.8 400 23.3 18.8 300 13.0 4.9 200 100 0 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 Sales (Rs cr, LHS) Growth (yoy %, RHS) Source: Company, Angel Research July 30, 2010 2
  • 3. MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update …ditto operating margins and bottom-line: For 1QFY2011, OPM came in at 10.7% (12.5%) as against our estimate of 7.3%. We had expected margins to be under pressure given the problems in Andhra Pradesh and higher share of power segment where MPL subcontracts majority of the work thereby diluting margins. On the bottom-line front, the company posted a marginal 2.8% yoy jump to Rs13.5cr, which was subdued mainly on account of higher interest cost. Exhibit 4: Quarterly EBITDA trend Exhibit 5: Quarterly bottom-line trend 50 20.0 16 6.1 7.0 16.6 14 5.3 4.6 3.3 6.0 40 12.5 12.4 12 4.7 11.2 15.0 5.0 30 10 2.4 4.0 10.3 7.4 10.0 8 1.4 6 3.9 3.0 20 2.0 4 10 6.4 10.7 5.0 2 1.0 0 - 0 - 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 EBITDA (Rs cr, LHS) EBITDAM (%, RHS) PAT (Rs cr, LHS) PATM (%, RHS) Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research Order book analysis MPL’s order book, as on 1QFY2011, stood at Rs4,615cr (3.5x FY2010 revenues), which is dominated by the power (37.9%) and irrigation (26.0) segments. The balance is contributed by the roads, real estate and mining segments. We believe that ~20% of MPL’s orders are either slow moving/pending financial closure, which would take time to start contributing to revenues. We believe that funding and overall liquidity plays a big role in MPL’s growth, given that ~71% of the orders are in house. Exhibit 6: 1QFY2011 order backlog - Sector wise (Rs cr) Exhibit 7: 1QFY2011 order backlog - Client wise (Rs cr) 375 140 Irrigation 1,200 1,200 1,150 Power Government Roads 3,275 Private 1,750 140 Real Estate Captive Mining Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research July 30, 2010 3
  • 4. MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update Change in valuation methodology MPL had decided to bundle all its development projects and list that entity (Madhucon Infra) by 1HFY2011 and raise Rs300-500cr. But, the issue had to be postponed by a year as stipulated by the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) norms, wherein a company has to wait for a year after re-pledging of shares before it can file the draft red herring prospectus. Thus, owing to the delay in going public, management was looking at pre-IPO fund raising. Private equity was one of the options being considered. But, with the issue of NCDs, there will be no pre-IPO placement. Madhucon Infra has two operational highways, two will begin tolling shortly and funds for the other are yet to be tied up. The company is also developing a 1,920mw thermal power project in Krishnapatnam and a coal mine in Indonesia. Against this backdrop, we are not factoring in dilution and changing our valuation methodology to price-to-book basis (1.25x equity invested). In line with this, our target price stands revised to Rs174 (Rs190). Outlook and Valuation We believe the key triggers to watch out for MPL should be the pick up in execution in the development business and building of an attractive asset portfolio before it plans to raise money via IPOs. However, these plans would fructify somewhere in FY2012 only and based on the market conditions prevailing then. Hence, we believe that till then the stock would be a sector performer and real value would be created only on unlocking at the subsidiary level. We downgrade the stock to Accumulate. We have valued MPL at ~30% discount to larger peers like NCC, IVRCL, HCC, etc., given its scale of operations, high leverage on the balance sheet, consistent delays in expansion plans and high dependence on captive orders for its core construction growth. Hence, we have assigned a P/E of 10x to its FY2012E core construction earnings of Rs9.8, valued its asset owning arm, Madhucon Infra, at 1.25x of equity invested, real estate venture on land cost and arrived at an SOTP Target Price of Rs174. Exhibit 8: SOTP target price Business Segment Methodology Remarks Rs cr Rs/share % to TP MPL- Parent P/E 10x FY2012E earnings 728 98.4 56.5 Madhucon Infra. P/BV 1.25x equity invested 533 72.1 41.4 Real Estate BV 9 acres at Kukatpally 27 3.6 2.1 Total 1,268 174.1 100 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 9: Change in Estimates FY2011E FY2012E Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates Variation Earlier Estimates Revised Estimates Variation Revenues 1,701.2 1,701.2 - 2,120.0 2,120.0 - EBITDA Margins 8.9 9.7 9.0 9.8 9.8 - PAT 47.7 56.8 19.1 72.8 72.8 - Source: Company, Angel Research July 30, 2010 4
  • 5. MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update Investment Argument Robust order book: MPL has an order book Rs4,615cr, which is spread across segments of power, highway and irrigation. The order book has witnessed traction from the power segment, in recent times, particularly from the in-house division (captive orders constitute ~70% of the total order book). Therefore, we believe that the funds raised from the recent NCD issue would ensure that the in-house projects are on time and the resultant order inflow for the construction arm. July 30, 2010 5
  • 6. MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update Exhibit 10: Recommendation Summary Company CMP TP Rating Top-line EPS Adj. P/E OB/ CAGR CAGR (Rs) (Rs) FY10 FY11E FY12E FY10 FY11E FY12E FY10 FY11E FY12E Sale (%) (%) CCCL 86 - Neutral 1,976 2,444 2,871 20.5 5.0 6.0 7.5 22.5 17.2 14.4 11.5 2.3 Gammon 214 - Neutral 4,489 5,575 6,607 21.3 8.4 10.0 12.1 20.0 13.0 11.0 9.0 2.5 HCC 133 - Neutral 3,629 4,146 4,900 16.2 2.7 3.2 3.8 18.8 21.6 18.4 15.3 4.7 IRB Infra 263 - Neutral 1,705 2,778 3,580 44.9 11.6 12.3 14.5 11.8 22.2 20.8 17.7 - IVRCL 176 216 Buy 5,492 6,663 8,294 22.9 7.8 9.6 12.0 23.9 16.3 13.3 10.6 4.3 JP Assoc. 121 174 Buy 10,316 13,281 17,843 31.5 4.7 5.2 7.7 28.5 26.0 23.2 15.8 - Punj Lloyd 130 170 Buy 10,539 11,088 13,407 12.8 (11.1) 8.3 12.2 - - 15.8 10.7 2.8 NCC 178 - Neutral 4,778 5,913 6,758 18.9 7.8 10.0 10.7 17.4 22.8 17.8 16.6 3.6 Sadbhav 1,290 - Neutral 1,257 1,560 1,911 23.3 43.0 57.5 69.5 27.1 20.3 15.2 12.5 5.4 Simplex In. 476 570 Buy 4,555 5,535 6,428 18.8 25.7 31.9 40.7 25.9 18.5 14.9 11.7 2.5 Patel Engg. 409 563 Buy 3,081 3,685 4,297 18.1 23.4 31.2 32.9 18.6 13.1 9.8 9.3 3.5 MPL 155 174 Accu. 1,308 1,701 2,120 27.3 5.8 7.7 9.8 29.8 13.2 10.1 7.9 7.8 L&T 1,863 - Neutral 37,035 44,047 55,519 22.4 47.5 55.1 68.9 20.4 30.9 26.7 21.3 3.0 Source: Company, Angel Research Exhibit 11: Recommendation Summary - SOTP break up Company Core Const. Real Estate Road BOT Invst. In Subsidiaries Others Total Rs % to TP Rs % to TP Rs % to TP Rs % to TP Rs % to TP Rs CCCL 89 100 - - - - - - - - 89 Gammon India 121 54 - - - - - - 104 46 225 HCC 51 40 59 47 16 13 - - - - 126 IRB Infra 113 41 3 1 154 56 5 2 - - 275 IVRCL 168 78 - - - - 48 22 - - 216 JP Assoc. 65 38 41 23 - - - - 68 39 174 Punj Lloyd 170 100 - - - - - - - - 170 NCC 152 82 18 10 16 8 - - - - 186 Sadbhav 834 67 - - 418 33 - - - - 1,252 Simplex In. 570 100 - - - - - - - - 570 Patel Engg 460 82 103 18 - - - - - - 563 Madhucon 98 56 4 2 - - 72 41 - - 174 L&T 1,447 79 - - - -- 394 21 - - 1,841 Source: Company, Angel Research July 30, 2010 6
  • 7. MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update Profit & Loss Statement (Standalone) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011E FY2012E Net Sales 510 738 1,025 1,308 1,701 2,120 Other operating income - - - - - - Total operating income 510 738 1,025 1,308 1,701 2,120 % chg 49.1 44.7 38.9 27.5 30.1 24.6 Total Expenditure 433 631 901 1,173 1,536 1,913 Net Raw Materials 347 504 706 1,034 1,208 1,495 Other Mfg costs 33 73 118 - 201 255 Personnel 18 27 43 45 70 91 Other 34 27 35 94 58 72 EBITDA 77 107 124 134 165 207 % chg 60.9 39.6 15.5 8.3 23.1 25.5 (% of Net Sales) 15.1 14.5 12.1 10.3 9.7 9.8 Depreciation& Amortisation 24 34 43 45 49 59 EBIT 53 73 81 89 116 148 % chg 72.3 38.4 9.9 10.9 29.6 27.9 (% of Net Sales) 10.4 9.9 7.9 6.8 6.8 7.0 Interest & other Charges 11 16 27 26 41 51 Other Income 15.6 12.6 19.1 4.6 10.0 12.0 (% of PBT) 27.1 18.2 26.1 6.8 11.8 11.0 Recurring PBT 57 70 73 68 85 109 % chg 56.8 21.2 5.2 (6.8) 24.5 28.2 Extraordinary Expense/(Inc.) - - - - - - PBT (reported) 57 70 73 68 85 109 Tax 16 18 26 25 28 36 (% of PBT) 27.6 25.4 35.6 36.6 33.0 33.0 PAT (reported) 42 52 47 43 57 73 Add: Share of ass. - - - - - - Less: Minority interest (MI) - - - - - - Prior period items - - - - - - PAT after MI (reported) 42 52 47 43 57 73 ADJ. PAT 42 47 47 43 57 73 % chg 42.0 13.2 (0.7) (7.8) 31.5 28.2 (% of Net Sales) 8.2 6.4 4.6 3.3 3.3 3.4 Basic EPS (Rs) (Reported) 5.6 7.0 6.4 5.8 7.7 9.8 Fully Diluted EPS (Rs) (Diluted) 5.6 6.4 6.3 5.8 7.7 9.8 % chg 42.0 13.2 (0.7) (7.8) 31.5 28.2 July 30, 2010 7
  • 8. MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update Balance Sheet (Standalone) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 Preference Capital - - - - - - Reserves& Surplus 440.5 485.2 528.6 567.5 620.0 688.7 Shareholders Funds 447.9 492.6 536.0 574.9 627.4 696.1 Minority Interest - - - - - - Total Loans 201.2 196.2 319.9 380.0 628.4 739.0 Deferred Tax Liability 7.6 12.2 12.4 12.4 12.4 12.4 Total Liabilities 656.7 701.0 868.3 967.4 1,268.2 1,447.5 APPLICATION OF FUNDS Gross Block 293.6 378.8 461.5 546.5 641.5 761.5 Less: Acc. Depreciation 98.0 130.8 173.1 218.0 267.3 326.5 Net Block 195.6 248.0 288.4 328.6 374.2 435.0 Capital Work-in-Progress - - - - - - Investments 231.1 299.7 372.8 372.8 372.8 372.8 Current Assets 581.6 708.6 715.0 869.3 1,299.8 1,732.0 Inventories 71.9 113.5 51.7 130.8 166.8 212.0 Sundry Debtors 147.6 92.2 87.8 125.4 233.0 348.5 Cash 138.1 101.6 84.8 90.1 83.4 153.9 Loans & Advances 222.7 401.2 490.8 523.0 816.6 1,017.6 Other 1.4 - - - - - Current liabilities 351.6 555.3 507.8 603.3 778.5 1,092.3 Net Current Assets 230.0 153.3 207.2 266.0 521.2 639.8 Misc. Exp. not written off - - - - - - Total Assets 656.7 701.0 868.3 967.4 1,268.2 1,447.5 July 30, 2010 8
  • 9. MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Profit before tax (excluding MI) 57.4 69.5 73.1 68.1 84.8 108.7 Depreciation 23.9 33.9 43.3 44.9 49.3 59.2 Change in Working Capital (21.0) (40.2) 70.7 53.5 261.9 48.0 Less: Other income 15.6 12.6 19.1 4.6 10.0 12.0 Direct taxes paid 15.8 22.3 26.0 24.9 28.0 35.9 Cash Flow from Operations 70.9 108.8 0.7 29.9 (165.7) 72.0 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (104.6) (85.3) (82.7) (85.0) (95.0) (120.0) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments (229.8) (68.6) (73.1) - - - Other income 15.6 12.6 19.1 4.6 10.0 12.0 Cash Flow from Investing (318.8) (141.2) (136.7) (80.4) (85.0) (108.0) Issue of Equity - - - - - - Inc./(Dec.) in loans 97.7 (5.0) 123.7 60.1 248.4 110.7 Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) 4.2 2.6 3.5 4.3 4.3 4.2 Others 4.0 3.0 (1.0) - - - Cash Flow from Financing 97.6 (4.6) 119.2 55.8 244.0 106.5 Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (150.4) (37.0) (16.8) 5.3 (6.7) 70.5 Opening Cash balances 288.9 138.5 101.5 84.7 90.1 83.3 Closing Cash balances 138.5 101.5 84.7 90.1 83.3 153.9 July 30, 2010 9
  • 10. MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update Key Ratios Y/E March FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010E FY2011E FY2012E Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) 27.4 24.2 24.4 26.5 20.1 15.7 P/CEPS 17.4 14.1 12.7 13.0 10.8 8.7 P/BV 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 Dividend yield (%) 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 EV/Sales 2.4 1.7 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.8 EV/EBITDA 15.7 11.5 11.1 10.7 10.2 8.3 EV / Total Assets 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) 5.6 7.0 6.4 5.8 7.7 9.8 EPS (fully diluted) 5.6 6.4 6.3 5.8 7.7 9.8 Cash EPS 8.9 11.0 12.2 11.9 14.3 17.8 DPS 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 Book Value 60.5 66.5 72.4 77.7 84.7 94.0 Dupont Analysis EBIT margin 10.4 9.9 7.9 6.8 6.8 7.0 Tax retention ratio 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 Asset turnover (x) 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 ROIC (Post-tax) 7.4 9.8 7.5 6.8 7.5 8.0 Cost of Debt (Post Tax) 4.0 6.2 6.6 4.7 5.5 5.0 Leverage (x) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 Operating ROE 7.9 10.4 7.8 7.8 9.0 10.5 Returns (%) ROACE (Pre-tax) 8.1 10.8 10.3 9.7 10.4 10.9 Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) 10.2 13.1 11.7 10.8 11.2 12.0 ROAE 9.3 10.0 9.1 7.8 9.5 11.0 Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (G.B) 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.0 Inventory / Sales (days) 51 46 29 25 32 33 Receivables (days) 106 59 32 30 38 50 Payables (days) 312 251 187 184 193 133 WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) 66 36 31 42 66 80 Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 Net debt to EBITDA 0.8 0.9 1.9 2.2 3.3 2.8 Interest Cov. (EBIT/Interest) 4.7 4.5 3.0 3.5 2.8 2.9 July 30, 2010 10
  • 11. MPL|1QFY2011 Result Update Research Team Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 E-mail: research@angeltrade.com Website: www.angeltrade.com DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement MPL 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) July 30, 2010 11