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MVPs are too expensive
How wasteless validation leads to better insights
Tim Herbig - @herbigt - Director Iridion
Product Management Festival 2017
3 Key Takeaways for you today
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Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Best visualization of MVP I could find
Source: Henrik KnibergTim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Common misconceptions about MVPs
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Common misconceptions about MVPs
• They’re crappy versions of all planned
features…
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Common misconceptions about MVPs
• They’re crappy versions of all planned
features…
• …but are good to live on after launch
anyways
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Common misconceptions about MVPs
• They’re crappy versions of all planned
features…
• …but are good to live on after launch
anyways
• They’re the cheapest way to validate
critical hypotheses
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Best MVP definition I could come up with
Source: Tim Herbig
"An MVP is about building the most critical value proposition
[…] to further prove your product idea’s potential and
product market fit and shipping it in the best possible quality
[…]. It is not about building slimmed down or extremely
compromised versions of all your features […]."
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
But in general, MVP’s are cool,
right?
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Well, kind of…
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
…there’s one problem
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
How’s validating with MVPs 'too expensive'?
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
How’s validating with MVPs 'too expensive'?
Cost of Building
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
How’s validating with MVPs 'too expensive'?
Cost of Building Cost of Waiting
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Involved Resources
Product Manager Product Designer Business Owner
Product Manager Product Designer Development Team
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Involved Resources
Product Manager Product Designer Business Owner
Product Manager Product Designer Development Team
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Involved Resources
Product Manager Product Designer Business Owner
Product Manager Product Designer Development Team
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Involved Resources
Product Manager Product Designer Business Owner
Product Manager Product Designer Development Team
Busy building your MVP
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
MVP Development Timeline
Concept & Design Story Slicing Estimation Development Iterations (Sprints)
Moment you’re
validating
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
MVP Development Timeline
Concept & Design Story Slicing Estimation Development Iterations (Sprints)
Moment you’re
validating
Moment you should
be validating
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Discovery & Delivery Track Relation
Source: Inken Petersen/ubercreativeTim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Discovery & Delivery Track Relation
Source: Inken Petersen/ubercreative
Don’t take this for
granted
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Discovery & Delivery Track Relation
Source: Inken Petersen/ubercreative
Part Management
cares most about
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
You need to be creative
about validation without
a development team
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
But why do I need to
validate at all?
Can’t I just build an MVP?
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
No, and here’s why
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
No, and here’s why
Old way of thinking about resource
allocation
"This sounds like a
great feature idea
based on what I think to
spend time, people and
money on!"
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
No, and here’s why
Old way of thinking about resource
allocation
"This sounds like a
great feature idea
based on what I think to
spend time, people and
money on!"
Modern way of thinking about
resource allocation
"Where’s the proof that
this is a good
opportunity to spend
time, people and
money on?"
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Even resources for building an
MVP must be earned by validating
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
How validation relates to building an MVP
Source: Henrik KnibergTim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
How validation relates to building an MVP
Source: Henrik Kniberg
Hypothesis:
People want to get faster from A to
B than walking.
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
How validation relates to building an MVP
Source: Henrik Kniberg
Hypothesis:
People want to get faster from A to
B than walking.
Research & Ideation:
Find out problem with walking and
come up with alternatives (horse, car
etc.).
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
How validation relates to building an MVP
Source: Henrik Kniberg
Hypothesis:
People want to get faster from A to
B than walking.
Research & Ideation:
Find out problem with walking and
come up with alternatives (horse, car
etc.).
Validation:
Simulate walking situations and test
whether value proposition of car
gets chosen over walking (or horse).
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
4 Biggest Validation Mistakes
1. Falling for Confirmation Bias
2. Setting up only one hypothesis
3. Only validating indirectly
4. Picking the wrong method for the right
questions
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Types of Validation
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Types of Validation
Qualitative/Attitudinal
'What do People need?'
'How are people solving a problem?'
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Types of Validation
Quantitative/Behavioural
'Do people want the product?'
'Which design works better?'
Qualitative/Attitudinal
'What do People need?'
'How are people solving a problem?'
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Complexity to
validate
When validation becomes complex
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Degree Buying Moments are involved
Complexity to
validate
When validation becomes complex
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Your Typical Freemium Funnel
Upsell
Download/Access
Signup
Engagement
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Your Typical Freemium Funnel
Upsell
Download/Access
Signup
Engagement
Where’s the make-or-break
hypothesis located?
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Your Typical Freemium Funnel
Upsell
Download/Access
Signup
Engagement
Upsell
Where’s the make-or-break
hypothesis located?
Let’s say it’s here
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Forget about Qualitative Methods
Qualitative/Attitudinal Quantitative/Behavioural
'What do People need?'
'How are people solving a problem?'
'Do want people want the product?'
'Which design works better?'
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Examples of Quantitative Methods
• Pre-Order MVP
• Smoke Tests
• Fake E-Mail Testing
• Concierge MVP
Quantitative/Behavioural
'Do want people want the product?'
'Which design works better?'
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
We believe that introducing profile visitors as a paid feature
to business professionals will achieve an additional growth of
Premium members by 15% per year.
We’re confident that this is true when we see a <3% click-
through rate on the new profile picture e-mail test.
Hypotheses in upsell validation
Wrong
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
We believe that introducing profile visitors a paid feature to
business professionals will achieve an additional growth of
Premium members by 15% per year.
We’re confident that this is true when we see a <3% click-
through rate on the buy button within a faked profile visitors
list e-mail test.
Hypotheses in upsell validation
Right
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Summarized upsell validation findings
1. Don’t use qualitative methods to validate purchase-
related hypotheses.
2. Don’t confuse validated engagement with real
willingness to pay.
3. Fake the payment moment to make it as real as possible.
4. Prepare vouchers and pre-order discounts as
compensation. ;)
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
Thanks!
Let’s stay in touch.
twitter: @herbigt
at day: iridion.com
blog: herbigt.com
podcast: productish.com
Overall key learning points
1. MVPs are about prioritized depth not crappy width
2. Building an MVP for validation builds up unnecessary waiting and
building cost
3. Validation needs to happen before you enter the delivery track
4. Validating hypotheses becomes harder the deeper you’re into the
freemium product funnel
5. Qualitative metrics fail for testing upsell moments
6. Your experiments should focus on the immediate purchase moment,
not the engagement prior to it
Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt

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MVPs are too expensive - How wasteless validation leads to better insights

  • 1. MVPs are too expensive How wasteless validation leads to better insights Tim Herbig - @herbigt - Director Iridion Product Management Festival 2017
  • 2. 3 Key Takeaways for you today </> ? Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 3. Best visualization of MVP I could find Source: Henrik KnibergTim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 4. Common misconceptions about MVPs Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 5. Common misconceptions about MVPs • They’re crappy versions of all planned features… Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 6. Common misconceptions about MVPs • They’re crappy versions of all planned features… • …but are good to live on after launch anyways Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 7. Common misconceptions about MVPs • They’re crappy versions of all planned features… • …but are good to live on after launch anyways • They’re the cheapest way to validate critical hypotheses Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 8. Best MVP definition I could come up with Source: Tim Herbig "An MVP is about building the most critical value proposition […] to further prove your product idea’s potential and product market fit and shipping it in the best possible quality […]. It is not about building slimmed down or extremely compromised versions of all your features […]." Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 9. But in general, MVP’s are cool, right? Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 10. Well, kind of… Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 11. …there’s one problem Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 12. How’s validating with MVPs 'too expensive'? Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 13. How’s validating with MVPs 'too expensive'? Cost of Building Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 14. How’s validating with MVPs 'too expensive'? Cost of Building Cost of Waiting Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 15. Involved Resources Product Manager Product Designer Business Owner Product Manager Product Designer Development Team Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 16. Involved Resources Product Manager Product Designer Business Owner Product Manager Product Designer Development Team Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 17. Involved Resources Product Manager Product Designer Business Owner Product Manager Product Designer Development Team Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 18. Involved Resources Product Manager Product Designer Business Owner Product Manager Product Designer Development Team Busy building your MVP Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 19. MVP Development Timeline Concept & Design Story Slicing Estimation Development Iterations (Sprints) Moment you’re validating Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 20. MVP Development Timeline Concept & Design Story Slicing Estimation Development Iterations (Sprints) Moment you’re validating Moment you should be validating Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 21. Discovery & Delivery Track Relation Source: Inken Petersen/ubercreativeTim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 22. Discovery & Delivery Track Relation Source: Inken Petersen/ubercreative Don’t take this for granted Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 23. Discovery & Delivery Track Relation Source: Inken Petersen/ubercreative Part Management cares most about Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 24. You need to be creative about validation without a development team Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 25. But why do I need to validate at all? Can’t I just build an MVP? Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 26. No, and here’s why Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 27. No, and here’s why Old way of thinking about resource allocation "This sounds like a great feature idea based on what I think to spend time, people and money on!" Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 28. No, and here’s why Old way of thinking about resource allocation "This sounds like a great feature idea based on what I think to spend time, people and money on!" Modern way of thinking about resource allocation "Where’s the proof that this is a good opportunity to spend time, people and money on?" Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 29. Even resources for building an MVP must be earned by validating Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 30. How validation relates to building an MVP Source: Henrik KnibergTim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 31. How validation relates to building an MVP Source: Henrik Kniberg Hypothesis: People want to get faster from A to B than walking. Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 32. How validation relates to building an MVP Source: Henrik Kniberg Hypothesis: People want to get faster from A to B than walking. Research & Ideation: Find out problem with walking and come up with alternatives (horse, car etc.). Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 33. How validation relates to building an MVP Source: Henrik Kniberg Hypothesis: People want to get faster from A to B than walking. Research & Ideation: Find out problem with walking and come up with alternatives (horse, car etc.). Validation: Simulate walking situations and test whether value proposition of car gets chosen over walking (or horse). Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 34. 4 Biggest Validation Mistakes 1. Falling for Confirmation Bias 2. Setting up only one hypothesis 3. Only validating indirectly 4. Picking the wrong method for the right questions Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 35. Types of Validation Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 36. Types of Validation Qualitative/Attitudinal 'What do People need?' 'How are people solving a problem?' Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 37. Types of Validation Quantitative/Behavioural 'Do people want the product?' 'Which design works better?' Qualitative/Attitudinal 'What do People need?' 'How are people solving a problem?' Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 38. Complexity to validate When validation becomes complex Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 39. Degree Buying Moments are involved Complexity to validate When validation becomes complex Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 40. Your Typical Freemium Funnel Upsell Download/Access Signup Engagement Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 41. Your Typical Freemium Funnel Upsell Download/Access Signup Engagement Where’s the make-or-break hypothesis located? Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 42. Your Typical Freemium Funnel Upsell Download/Access Signup Engagement Upsell Where’s the make-or-break hypothesis located? Let’s say it’s here Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 43. Forget about Qualitative Methods Qualitative/Attitudinal Quantitative/Behavioural 'What do People need?' 'How are people solving a problem?' 'Do want people want the product?' 'Which design works better?' Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 44. Examples of Quantitative Methods • Pre-Order MVP • Smoke Tests • Fake E-Mail Testing • Concierge MVP Quantitative/Behavioural 'Do want people want the product?' 'Which design works better?' Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 45. We believe that introducing profile visitors as a paid feature to business professionals will achieve an additional growth of Premium members by 15% per year. We’re confident that this is true when we see a <3% click- through rate on the new profile picture e-mail test. Hypotheses in upsell validation Wrong Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 46. We believe that introducing profile visitors a paid feature to business professionals will achieve an additional growth of Premium members by 15% per year. We’re confident that this is true when we see a <3% click- through rate on the buy button within a faked profile visitors list e-mail test. Hypotheses in upsell validation Right Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 47. Summarized upsell validation findings 1. Don’t use qualitative methods to validate purchase- related hypotheses. 2. Don’t confuse validated engagement with real willingness to pay. 3. Fake the payment moment to make it as real as possible. 4. Prepare vouchers and pre-order discounts as compensation. ;) Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt
  • 48. Thanks! Let’s stay in touch. twitter: @herbigt at day: iridion.com blog: herbigt.com podcast: productish.com
  • 49. Overall key learning points 1. MVPs are about prioritized depth not crappy width 2. Building an MVP for validation builds up unnecessary waiting and building cost 3. Validation needs to happen before you enter the delivery track 4. Validating hypotheses becomes harder the deeper you’re into the freemium product funnel 5. Qualitative metrics fail for testing upsell moments 6. Your experiments should focus on the immediate purchase moment, not the engagement prior to it Tim Herbig - Product Management Festival 2017 - @herbigt