No estimates2015
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#NoEstimates is a movement emphasizing the limitations of traditional estimation methods in software projects, arguing that estimates often fail to predict actual outcomes accurately. It proposes a strategy for managing project work by focusing on smaller, risk-neutral tasks rather than relying on potentially flawed estimates. The document highlights the challenges of estimating within software development and encourages workshops to explore experiences and lessons learned from practicing #NoEstimates.
No estimates2015
- 2. #NoEstimates What’s in the name? Why not ? #BeyondEstimates #BetterPrediction 2
- 4. How good can YOU estimate? 4
- 5. In 1986, Profs. S.D. Conte, H.E. Dunsmoir, and V.Y. Shen proposed that a good estimation approach should provide estimates that are within 25% of the actual results 75% of the time --Steve McConnel, Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art 5
- 6. Who has delivered a project ? - on time - within budget - what was requested within 25% 6
- 7. Who has delivered 7,5 out of 10 projects? - on time - within budget - what was requested within 25% 7
- 9. How long do you think it will take them to distributed 9
- 11. timekeeper? 11
- 12. START ! 12
- 13. result? 13
- 14. my prediction 14
- 15. 15
- 16. have a large range 16
- 17. between 5 seconds & 10 minutes 17
- 18. chaos report 18
- 19. chaos report 19 80% Late or Failed Source: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell
- 20. chaos report 20 Source: Software Estimation by Steve McConnell The larger the project, the bigger the problem
- 23. 23 cone of uncertainty not scientific
- 24. BIAS 24
- 25. BIAS 25
- 26. BIAS 26
- 28. contracts
- 29. who wins a contract bidding?
- 31. Why do we have budgets?
- 32. this is our budget budget
- 35. budget situation 2 cost you over estimated. Next year you will only get 80% of your requested budget saving
- 36. budget situation 2 year +1 cost let’s spend this
- 38. budget situation 3: A cost extra budget requested rejected !! X
- 39. budget situation 3: A cost extra budget requested rejected !! I hope you delivered in small chunks X
- 40. budget situation 3: B cost extra budget requested Approved. Please estimate better next time.
- 41. budget situation 3: year +1 Let’s ask for 120% too avoid the risk of being rejected.
- 42. budget needed budget let’s spend this 1 2 Why do we have budgets? budget budget 3a 3b
- 43. Controlling costs makes cost higher John Seddon .hanoulle.be/2010/07/john-seddon-why-controlling-costs-makes-c
- 45. The point of story points was to obscure time @RonJeffries
- 46. Story of a team 46
- 52. #NoEstimates RegularEstimates “The chart is a snapshot of one team of 20+ teams over a 2 year period.” – Cory Foy
- 54. it’s NOT just me 54 join @Duarte_Vasco on http://bit.ly/NoEstimatesProjects DB
- 55. let me repeat 55 #NoEstimates has a same or better prediction then estimates
- 56. Estimates assume we are in an Ordered Domain, where reductionism works. Software however is in the Complex and Complicated domain where reductionism does not work. #NoEstimates
- 57. rules of #NoEstimates 1. Select the most important piece of work you need to do 2. Break that work down into risk neutral pieces of work 3. Develop each piece of work 4. Iterate and refactor 5. ( Count for predictability )
- 58. workshop
- 59. workshop create 4 groups of around 10 people
- 60. imaging 17 September 2016 you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while. What have you learned? workshop
- 61. 61 workshop What did not work? What were the challenges? What worked? What were the advantages? imaging 17 September 2016 you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while. What have you learned?
- 62. 62 workshopimaging 17 September 2016 you have been doing #NoEstimates for a while. What have you learned? What did not work? What were the challenges? What worked? What were the advantages?
- 63. 63 workshoppick a side - what you prefer - what you disagree with - to make it even.. What did not work? What were the challenges? What worked? What were the advantages?
- 64. 64 workshoplet’s discuss Team red starts with an argumentTeam green replies
- 65. 65 workshopVOTE
- 66. #NoEstimates book http://noestimatesbook.com http://j.mp/NoEstimatesBook_Yves_Discount >> 37 % discount till noon tomorrow
- 67. @YvesHanoulle your company? Available from 1/10/2015 http://j.mp/NoEstimatesBook_Yves_Discount >> 37 % discount till noon tomorrow