#NoEstimates Thinking
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The document discusses alternatives to estimates in software development called "#NoEstimates". It argues that estimates are unreliable due to uncertainty and human biases. Estimates promote cost-focused mindsets that hinder adaptation. Instead, the document advocates for iterative development styles that involve continuous feedback, slicing work into small increments, and technical excellence. It promotes agile practices like story mapping, tight feedback loops, and refactoring to support responsive, collaborative development aligned with customer needs over rigid pre-planning.
#NoEstimates Thinking
- 1. #NOESTIMATES thinking #iad14 Massimo Iacolare @iacoware
- 2. my journey
- 3. MYTH
- 5. Estimating sucks! End of story. Questions?
- 6. Estimating sucks! End of story. Questions? Relax, Iâm kidding ;-)
- 7. Estimating sucks! End of story. Questions? Relax, Iâm kidding ;-) kind ofâŠ
- 8. just lazy?
- 9. from #NoEstimates to #NoSalary
- 11. woody zuill @woodyzuill vasco duarte @duarte_vasco Neil killick @neil_killick Ăngel Medinilla @angel_m J.B. rainsberger @jbrains Chris R. Chapman @DerailleurAgile Joshua Kerievsky @JoshuaKerievsky Henri Karhatsu @karhatsu many moreâŠ
- 12. #NoEstimates is a hashtag for the topic of exploring alternatives to estimates for making decisions in software development. That is, ways to make decisions with 'No Estimates' Woody Zuill
- 13. â#NoEstimates is a critique to how estimates are usually handled not to how they should be doneâ
- 14. ED D
- 15. ED EVELOPMENT STIMATES RIVEN D
- 17. WHY ESTIMATES DONâT HELP
- 18. WRITING SOFTWARE
- 19. DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY every project brings something new
- 20. Domain Technology - tools process people
- 21. Domain Technology - tools process people + we learn by doing
- 22. UNCERTAINTY & upfront ESTIMATES ?
- 23. Oil & water
- 24. unreliable
- 25. MOST useful at the beginning maximum ignorance
- 26. Cost of a feature essential complexity +
- 27. Cost of a feature essential complexity accidental complexity + Foundamental theorem of agile software development
- 29. How much time do you need to add âcustomer promotionsâ to our e-commerce?
- 30. How much time do you need to add âcustomer promotionsâ to our e-commerce?
- 31. BIASES optimism bias anchoring bias LOSS AVERSION AVAILABILITY BIAS sunk cost fallacy SELECTIVE PERCEPT. âŠmany more
- 32. we suck at making predictions
- 33. side effects
- 34. Set Expectations
- 35. Foster plans detailed plans detailed backlog
- 36. âestimating means youâre getting married to a plan, which you know is wrong even when you startâ vasco duarte
- 37. learn by doing âestimating means youâre getting married to a plan, which you know is wrong even when you startâ vasco duarte
- 39. loss aversion Hinder Adaptation
- 41. cost âłnumber âłcertain value âł ??? âł UNcertain
- 42. availability bias cost âłnumber âłcertain value âł ??? âł UNcertain
- 43. Costs become the target to Hit
- 44. same cost more features
- 45. same cost more features
- 46. more features = better software
- 47. more features == better software
- 48. more features == in case you are a developer better software
- 49. more features == better software
- 50. more features == in case you come from javascript = better software
- 51. more features == in case you come from javascript = better software Fallacy
- 52. minimize output maximize outcome
- 53. more features = bigger codebase = Hinder ADAPTation
- 54. more features = bigger codebase = Hinder ADAPTation again
- 55. BETTER SOFTWARE
- 56. BETTER features = BETTER SOFTWARE
- 57. RECAP
- 58. donât help with uncertainty plagued by fallacies foster detailed plans COST-based mindset hinder adaptation
- 61. Whereâs the exit, please?
- 62. step 0 sign the contract
- 63. get off to a good start
- 64. get off to a good start affect execution
- 65. the perils of fixed-price fixed-scope
- 66. fixed price - fixed scope requirements (estimated plan) a price a delivery date
- 67. fixed price - fixed scope requirements (estimated plan) a price a delivery date
- 68. premises requirements captured the problem you understood the problem Uncertainty doesnât exist estimates are correct execution goes smootly
- 69. premises requirements captured the problem you understood the problem Uncertainty doesnât exist estimates are correct execution goes smootly
- 70. premises requirements captured the problem you understood the problem Uncertainty doesnât exist estimates are correct execution goes smootly
- 71. customer problem fp-fs things go wrong you fail you suck
- 72. customer problem fp-fs things go wrong you fail you suck bigger penalty fees
- 73. customer problem fp-fs things go wrong you fail you suck bigger penalty fees more analysis
- 74. you f*ck me, I F*ck you fixed-price, fixed-scope contracts
- 75. Agile contracts Capped time-material incremental delivery
- 78. adopt a development style which doesnât rely on estimates
- 79. we learn by doing so we should hit the target iteratively
- 80. adopt a development style which foster a healthy, mature relationship with my customers
- 81. do the right thing do it right do it iteratively
- 82. do the right thing do it right
- 83. do the right thing solve the right problem the starting point matters
- 84. map the problem with story mapping
- 85. jeff patton
- 86. communication tool whole point of Xp: business people and technical people should talk help build customer trust Visualizing your strategy
- 96. build a shared understanding
- 98. build effective releases prioritize by outcome, not features walking skeleton plan to reduce uncertainty
- 99. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
- 100. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
- 101. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
- 102. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
- 103. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
- 104. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
- 105. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
- 106. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
- 107. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
- 108. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
- 109. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
- 110. avoid silos Users catalog cart promo payments
- 111. keep plans lightweight embrace flexible scope half life of requirements
- 113. do it right get better at software development how hard can it be?
- 114. do it right get better at software development how hard can it be?
- 115. support an iterative-incremental style of development
- 116. what do we need?
- 117. tight feedback loop slice scope exploit iterative development technical excellence to keep it all together
- 118. tight feedback loop tdd â continuous delivery
- 119. slice everything generate options always assume thereâs a simpler way defer commitment
- 120. exploit iterative development donât know what i want Uncertainty-Jeff-Patton
- 122. âif you work on it only once you are not doing iterative developmentâ
- 123. tech. EXCellence youâll need to grow your design incrementally⊠âŠso you wonât get stuck and rewrite it every time you touch it
- 124. iterative development is the result of your well trained technical abilities
- 125. nurture your skills
- 126. technical xp practices pair programming simple design refactoring tdd
- 127. â#NoEstimates is merely a call to refocus on the agile manifestoâ Woody Zuill
- 128. Individuals and interactions over Processes and tools Working software over Comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over Contract negotiation Responding to change over Following a plan
- 129. Individuals and interactions over Processes and tools Working software over Comprehensive documentation Customer collaboration over Contract negotiation Responding to change over Following a plan #NoEstimates
- 130. Massimo Iacolare freelance .net and js expert quality addicted love shipping features love making users happy co-founder of the awesome
- 131. Lambacon - marzo 2015, bologna