Oerc delphipresentation final
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The document discusses the preliminary results of an international Delphi study aimed at exploring transitions to sustainable transport systems in the face of climate change and oil insecurity. It identifies key characteristics of sustainable transport and evaluates trends and potential transformations within the next ten years, emphasizing the importance of public investment, adoption of new technologies, and changing cultural norms. The findings indicate a consensus on the need for a transition to sustainable transport and outline the potential for significant future changes in global transport energy cultures.
Oerc delphipresentation final
- 1. Drivers and transitions for global transport: preliminary results from an international Delphi study Janet Stephenson, Debbie Hopkins, Adam Doering Energy Cultures II Project, Centre for Sustainability November 2013
- 2. Background A workstream of Energy Cultures 2 research programme: “…what is possible with new technologies and practices for energy efficiency and conservation?” The current fossil fuel-dominated transport system: – contributed 22% of total GHG emissions in 2010 – is vulnerable to shocks in oil supply and pricing These twin challenges of climate change and oil insecurity can be addressed, in part, by a global transition to low-carbon, energy-efficient (“sustainable”) transport systems.
- 3. Method: The Delphi Technique An iterative, multi-stage process, bringing together expert opinions on complex topics A panel of global experts: Academia (n=18), industry (n=3), government (n=4), consultancy (n=3), NGO (n=1), other (n=1). Fields of expertise included: renewable energy, transport policy, demand modelling, material technology, freight, transport economics, behaviour
- 4. Stages • Round Zero: Skype-based interviews with 6 key panel members • Round One: A qualitative internet-based survey sent to 30 panel members, 23 responses received • Round Two: A quantitative internet-based survey sent to 30 panel members, 22 responses received
- 5. Characteristics of a sustainable transport system
- 6. Characteristics of a sustainable transport system
- 7. Change Trends Likelihood of becoming widespread within 10 years 1 = low, 5 = high PotentialtotransformthetransportsystemawayfromBAUinthelongterm 2 3 4 51 1 2 4 5 A C B DF E H G J I K High – High: A : Increasing investment in public transport B: Uptake of travel substitution technologies C: Increasing public environmental concern D: Uptake of efficient cars E: Uptake of electric vehicles F: Uptake of active transport Low potential to transform High likelihood of becoming widespread: I: Decreasing youth car ownership J: Uptake of shared personal transport K: Decreasing youth car licensing High potential to transform Low likelihood of becoming widespread: G: Uptake of autonomous vehicles H: Substantial reduction in VKT
- 8. Discontinuities Likelihood of occurring within 10 years 1 = low, 5 = high PotentialtotransformthetransportsystemawayfromBAUinthelongterm 2 3 4 51 1 2 4 5 AC B D F H G J I K High – High: A: Political instability in oil-rich countries B: Breakthrough in cheap battery/storage technologies C: Increased public and political concern about climate change Low potential to transform High likelihood of occurring: D: Geopolitical interventions in oil-rich countries E: Failure of Evs to be adopted as readily as expected High potential to transform Low likelihood of occurring: F: Global price on carbon G: Acute resource scarcity H: Significant global economic decline E Low - Low: I: Political instability in China and/or India J: Readily available oil sources found K: Breakthrough in nuclear fusion
- 10. Changes in material culture…
- 12. Changes in norms… collaborative cultures
- 13. Where & how these are coalescing to become transport transitions Material culture PracticesNorms Masdar’s EC of Experimentation London’s EC of Diversity Beijing’s EC of Speed
- 14. Conclusions • Agreement over the need for transition to a ‘sustainable transport system’ • Evidence of changing transport energy cultures globally • Potential for significant future change • Round 3 will invite ideas on relevance to NZ • This will inform a New Zealand-based Delphi in 2014
- 15. Questions Janet Stephenson, Debbie Hopkins, Adam Doering Janet.stephenson@otago.ac.nz