South Asia Outlook, Jan 2014
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South Asia's regional GDP growth slowed to a decade low of 4.6% in 2013 due to both external and domestic challenges. Growth in India fell below 5% and Pakistan's growth averaged 3.5% since 2010. However, regional growth is projected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014 and rise further to 6.7% by 2016, led by increases in domestic investment and external demand. Risks to the outlook include the ability of countries to sustain fiscal reforms and reduce inflation, as well as potential global economic issues.
South Asia Outlook, Jan 2014
- 1. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 South Asia Region Sanket Mohapatra World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook 1
- 2. South Asia’s regional GDP growth was a relatively weak 4.6 percent in 2013. 2
- 3. GDP growth in South Asia slowed to a decade low during 2012 and 2013 GDP growth (percent) Source: World Bank, national sources 3
- 4. . Growth in India is estimated to have fallen below 5% in current fiscal year. 4
- 5. . Pakistan’s growth has averaged 3.5% since 2010. 5
- 6. A challenging external environment played a role. 6
- 7. A challenging external environment played a role. But domestic imbalances and policy uncertainties were important contributors as well. 7
- 8. A sharp adjustment in capital flows during mid-year on tapering apprehensions Gross capital flows to South Asia (millions of US$) Source: World Bank, Dealogic 8
- 9. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
- 10. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
- 11. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
- 12. Currency depreciation in India, Nepal and Pakistan in 2013 Source: World Bank, Datastream.
- 13. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
- 14. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
- 15. Regional growth is expected to strengthen to 5.7% in 2014. Growth is projected to rise to 6.7% by 2016.
- 16. A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand 16
- 17. A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand 17
- 18. A gradual strengthening of regional growth will be led by domestic investment and external demand 18
- 19. Risks to the outlook • Domestic risks dominant: – Ability to sustain fiscal and policy reforms – Reducing inflation expectations – Political uncertainties (national elections in Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India in 2014) – Progress in alleviating supply-side constraints in energy, infrastructure, agriculture • Disorderly adjustment to financial tightening accompanying normalization of macro policy in high income countries • Fragile global growth – Euro Area not out of woods yet – Risks from US debt ceiling negotiations, geopolitical risks in Middle East • Doing better will depend on macro stability and productivity enhancing reforms to raise longer-term potential growth 19
- 20. Global Economic Prospects January 2014 South Asia Region Sanket Mohapatra World Bank January 2014 www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook 20
Editor's Notes
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