PFI PPP Financial Modelling and Analysis A Practical Guide 1st Edition David Whittaker
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- 5. PFI PPP Financial Modelling and Analysis A Practical Guide 1st Edition David Whittaker Digital Instant Download Author(s): David Whittaker ISBN(s): 9781843747543, 1843747545 Edition: 1st File Details: PDF, 1.61 MB Year: 2010 Language: english
- 6. PFI PPP FINANCIAL MODELLING AND ANALYSIS A Practical Guide David Whittaker 00 all text.indd 1 02/03/2010 13:50
- 7. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author would like to thank his family, Katerina and Daniella, for their support and all the professional people that have positively contributed to his skills, experience and knowledge over the years. 00 all text.indd 2 02/03/2010 13:50
- 8. iii CONTENTS Introduction vii Section 1. Public Sector Financial Modelling and Analysis 1 Section 2. Bid or Financial Close Modelling 5 Financial modelling best practice 5 Scope 7 Layout 10 Timeline 12 Construction 13 Financing 13 Unitary charge 18 Operating costs 18 Working capital 19 Accounting 22 Financial asset accounting 25 Taxation 26 Dividends 27 Profit loss account 28 Cash flow 29 Balance sheet 30 Sensitivities 30 Checks 33 IRRs 33 Lenders’ ratios 35 Summary 36 Finalising the bid or financial close model 36 Optimising the unitary charge 46 Sensitivity logic 48 Debt sculpting 50 Sources of error 55 Self testing the model 55 Limited scope financial model reviews 56 Using the model 60 Financial model audits – financial close model 60 00 all text.indd 3 02/03/2010 13:50
- 9. iv Contents Disclaimers User and technical documentation 73 Data book 77 Section 3. The Post Financial Close (“Operating Model”) 87 Introduction 87 Scope 88 Designing the financial model 88 Layout 89 Timeline 91 Main differences to a bid or financial close model 92 Process for building a post-financial close model 94 Actual inputs and actual logic 96 Funding 99 Unitary charge 103 Operating costs 104 Working capital 105 Accounting 108 Dividends 115 PL summary – reforecast 116 Cash flow – reforecast 116 Balance sheet – reforecast 118 Cash flow – full contract 119 PL summary – actual and reforecast 120 Cash flow – actual and reforecast 120 Balance sheet – actual and reforecast 121 PL summary – financial close 121 Cash flow summary – financial close 122 Balance sheet – financial close 122 Shareholder actual calculations 122 Shareholder analysis 123 Lenders actual cash flows 124 Lenders’ ratios 124 Summary 126 Historic debt statement 126 Historic debt statement exercise 126 Sensitivities 126 Actuals – for management reporting 129 Budget – for management reporting 129 Checks 129 Finalising the operating financial model 130 00 all text.indd 4 02/03/2010 13:50 72
- 10. v Contents Disclaimers 139 User and technical documentation 139 Section 4. The Post Financial Close (“Management Reporting Model”) 147 Model layout 147 Timeline 148 Imports and inputs 149 PL account management reporting – reforecast calculation 149 PL actual management reporting calculation 149 Cash flow management reporting – monthly calculation 150 Balance sheet management reporting – monthly calculation 150 Detailed PL 150 Cashflow statement detailed 151 Balance sheet 151 Summary PL 152 PL account management reporting – monthly 152 Cashflow management reporting – monthly 152 Balance sheet management reporting – monthly 153 Checks 153 User and technical documentation – management reporting model 153 Finalising the management reporting model 156 Using the model and the control process 168 Sources of error 168 Self or internal testing the management reporting model 169 Section 5. Other Areas for Financial Modelling and Analysis Contract renegotiations 171 Refinancing 171 Restructuring 173 Secondary markets 174 Project managing financial modelling projects 176 The use of generic and template financial models 177 Conclusion 178 Glossary 179 00 all text.indd 5 02/03/2010 13:50 171
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- 12. vii Introduction This book has been written specifically to address the financial modelling and analysis needs for PFI and PPP projects both at the bid, financial close and post-financial close stages. It will be useful for those who are required to enhance their skills in this area, whether at the begin- ner or intermediate level. However, it will also be useful for managers who require a further understanding of the process without having to become hands on. The main areas that require analysis are examined through extracts from a demonstration financial model that serves as a working example. The reader will be able to work through the process of building the financial models on a step-by-step basis, with reference to sample exercises, at their own pace, to help them build up their skills in this area. PFI stands for the private finance initiative, the UK government’s initiative to use private sector finance for government sector projects. It is a method that provides private finance for “public private partnerships” (PPP) between the public and the private sector. It is worth noting that this is book is not intended or suitable for only UK readers, as the PFI and PPP concepts have been adopted almost on a worldwide basis, with further adoption likely to follow by other nations. It makes good sense to outline how typical PFI PPP arrangements actually work, before examining financial modelling and analysis of PFI PPP in detail, which is the main objective of this book. A typical PFI PPP structure can be seen in Illustration 1. A typical project structure is comprised of a consortium of project sponsors from private sector companies, who provide equity in the form of ordinary shares and subordinated debt or a shareholder loan to the special purpose company (SPC). A syndicate of senior lenders led by a lead arranger provide senior debt to the SPC in return for its principal repayment, interest and fees. The SPC then contracts with the public sector body, such as a local council, hospital trust, etc, for the provision of the service through a project or concession agreement. The SPC receives a unitary payment in return for providing the services to the public sector body. The SPC contracts with the design and build contractor for the construction of the asset, and with the facilities management contractor for the provision of the ongoing services, such as catering and maintenance. In order to facilitate such a project structure, the following typical contracts are drawn up and signed before financial close: • project or concession agreement; • design and build agreement; • lender’s facility agreement; • facilities management agreement; and • shareholders’ agreement. The financial and contractual arrangements are reflected in a financial model that will forecast results over the life of the concession at the bid and financial close stage. There should be the ability to measure the impact of risk upon these results through sensitivity analysis prior to financially closing the contract. Once the PFI PPP concession is underway there is the need to 00 all text.indd 7 02/03/2010 13:50
- 13. PFI PPP Financial Modelling and Analysis viii regularly monitor the project performance by updating the actual financial results to date and changing any necessary input assumptions, as well as helping to identify any likely problems as soon as possible, so that corrective action can be taken as appropriate. In summary, the financial model will produce essential outputs, including profit and loss (PL), balance sheets, cash flows, and shareholders’ returns and lenders’ ratios. This book, being a practical guide, will demonstrate and provide skills transfer in both PFI / PPP bid and post-financial close (operational modelling) and analysis, thus providing financial manage- ment skills enhancement over the life of the concession. PFI PPP Financial Modelling and Analysis includes numerous examples of numbers, calculations and code for specific areas of modelling and analysis. There are also practical Sub debt and equity Debt Debt servicing Blended returns Project agreement Unitary payment Services Construction Consortium Senior lenders syndicate Public sector body Special purpose company (SPC) Facilities management contractors Design and build contractors Illustration 1 A typical design, build, finance and operational PFI PPP structure Source: Modelling Solutions 00 all text.indd 8 02/03/2010 13:50
- 14. Introduction ix exercises for the reader to complete in order to refine their skill and understand key issues. The book has been broken down into appropriate sections, which allows readers to focus on the areas of more interest to them. I hope that you gain great benefit from the reading and use of this book. It is important to note that the figures or the Excel example logic used in this book do not represent any past, current or, indeed, future PFI PPP bids, special purpose company or, indeed, actual financial evaluation of any kind. The numbers and results contained herein are purely fictional. 00 all text.indd 9 02/03/2010 13:50
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- 16. 1 Section 1 Public Sector Financial Modelling and Analysis Although the vast majority of this book is aimed at private sector involvement in private finance initiative (PFI) and public private partnerships (PPP) financial modelling and analysis, it is useful to devote a section on how the public sector actually undertakes its financial model- ling and analysis. This should prove particularly interesting for those considering undertaking financial modelling projects with the public sector or for those who remain in the private sector and who wish to understand how the public sector – which is obviously an important stake- holder in PPP – evaluates PFI projects. Essentially, the UK Treasury provides guidance on assessing the value for money (VfM) of procuring a given service requirement through PFI compared with conventional funding. The process includes the: • undertaking of a VfM assessment at both the full business case (FBC) and outline business case (OBC) stages; • qualitative VfM assessment as well as a quantitative assessment; and • use of a Treasury standardised template financial model for assessment purposes. This approach is concerned with the value for money of procurement routes. The main aims of the value for money assessment at OBC stage are to: • provide an assessment of whether procurement through PFI is likely to provide value for money compared with conventional procurement; • test the competitive interest in the project, and the market capacity to bid and deliver the project effectively. During the qualitative assessment at OBC stage, the public sector body needs to assess the viability, desirability and achievability of PFI when assessed against alternative procurement routes. These characteristics can be summarised as follows: • Viability: can the service requirements be stated in clear output based terms, and can the effectiveness of service delivery be measured and monitored? Can operational flexibility be maintained over the lifetime of the contract at an acceptable cost? • Desirability: is PFI likely to involve better risk management, significant risk transfer and better incentives for delivery on time and to cost? Is PFI likely to involve greater innovation? • Achievability: is there evidence that the private sector is capable of delivering the required outcome? Is there likely to be sufficient market appetite for the project? Is there/will there be sufficient client-side capability to manage the procurement process and appraise on- going performance against agreed outputs? 00 all text.indd 1 02/03/2010 13:50
- 17. PFI PPP Financial Modelling and Analysis 2 The qualitative assessment involves answering each of a series of set questions that address viability, desirability and achievability, and also an extended set of questions about the VfM regarding whether or not to include soft services such as facilities management. In undertaking the quantitative assessment at OBC stage, public sector bodies needs to populate and run the VfM model in Excel that has been developed by the Treasury and Partnerships UK. The outputs from the VfM model provide a comparison between the risk-adjusted net present cost (NPC) of the public sector comparator (PSC) and the risk-adjusted NPC of the PFI option, as estimated at OBC stage. The outcome of the comparison is shown in the model as the percentage difference between the PFI NPC and PSC NPC. A positive percentage means PFI has a lower NPC and is thus VfM, as long as the qualitative assessment and sensitivity tests are also favourable to PFI. A negative percentage means, on the basis of the quantitative assessment, PFI is not likely to be value for money. The VfM model involves a number of simplifications, reflecting the inherent uncertainty surrounding some of the input values, and therefore does not include some aspects one would normally expect to see in a public sector comparator or PFI deal. Nor is it likely that the model will be able to be fine tuned to reflect every detailed circumstance of each individual scheme. The model is intended to provide a good, high-level estimate of the relative value for money of PFI versus conventional procurement. In order to produce the estimated NPCs, public sector bodies are required to enter, into the “input assumptions” sheet of the model, estimates of: • the whole life costs of the PSC, including capital, lifecycle and operating costs; • the whole life costs that would be borne by a PFI provider, including capital, lifecycle and operating costs; • the interest rates, bank margins, etc, that impact on the PFI company’s funding costs; • optimism bias; • risk transfer; and • transaction costs. The estimated net present cost for the PFI option is derived within the model from the PSC costs, risk transfer and PFI funding costs. As noted above, the new value for money assessment is focussed on the value for money of the PFI procurement route. It is the VfM of procuring the preferred estates option through PFI that is tested through the new VfM model. An overall assessment is made by combining the qualitative and quantitative assessments. The assessment of the value for money of PFI cannot normally be reflected in a single quantified figure. The qualitative assessment should thus inform the confidence placed on the quantitative results. A positive qualitative assessment is also required. It is also important that the outputs from the quantitative and qualitative assessments should not be considered in isola- tion, but taken in conjunction in making the overall assessment. There is a need to report the outcome of the value for money assessment in the OBC. The outcomes from both the qualitative and quantitative value for money assessments must be reported in the OBC, along with the conclusions from combining the qualitative and quantitative assessments. The OBC must include reports of: 00 all text.indd 2 02/03/2010 13:50
- 18. Public Sector Financial Modelling and Analysis 3 • the assessments of viability, desirability and achievability from the qualitative assessment; • the qualitative assessment of the VfM of including soft services; • a full, working copy of the Excel quantitative model, along with the source and justifica- tion for the chosen input values; and • a summary of the results from the quantitative assessment, including the results of the sensitivity analyses carried out using the VfM model. The emphasis of the VfM assessment between the OBC stage and through to financial close is on demonstrating that a competitive price has been achieved from the preferred PFI bidder selected. This assessment is more continuous and needs to be undertaken at key stages as the project develops, including: • pre-Official Journal of the European Union (OJEU) notice; • pre-qualification; • invitation to participate in a competitive dialogue (ITPD); • invitation to submit final bids (ITFB); and • selection of preferred bidder. The assessment should focus on: • there being a competitive procurement for the scheme – avoiding a lack of competition as a result of a single bidder, or perhaps two bidders where only one is credible; • the bid offered – eg, after the selection of preferred bidder, in broad terms not being sub- stantially above that for other similar PFI projects nor the risk profile substantially worse. 00 all text.indd 3 02/03/2010 13:50
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- 20. 5 Section 2 Bid or Financial Close Modelling Financial modelling best practice A structured approach that should ideally be adopted is often referred to as financial modelling best practice (FMBP). This is because the financial modelling for PFI PPP projects is high risk, and the millions of pounds involved, as well as the number of complex calculations and arrangements necessary, make a structured approach desirable. I would propose that a FMBP approach is applied to all financial modelling projects, not just PFI PPP ones. A recommended approach to financial modelling best practice is shown in Illustration 2. Illustration 2 Financial modelling best practice In the past I have often been asked, “Isn’t FMBP too rigid?” My answer is always that, ideally, a balance should be struck, especially as an organisation is bidding or trying to close a transac- tion over a reasonably tight timescale. In fact, the vast majority of financial close models are not particularly well designed to deal with this factor. Looking at Illustration 2, let us now examine how FMBP relates to the need to build and rely upon the results derived from our bid or financial close model. In the scoping stage, we need to firstly discuss the actual purpose of the model. The pur- pose here is to prepare forecasts to produce shareholder returns, lender ratios over the life of the concession, and a unitary charge to the public sector body based upon all the assumptions Version control Change control • Purpose • Sensitivities • Timescales • Key outputs • Functionality • Periodicity m • Specification • Sponsors • document • buy in m • Excel? • Workbooks? • Modularisation m • Inputs/calcs/outputs • Unique formula • Simple formula • Check sums m • User and technical • Data book m • Analytical review • Key outputs • Sensitivities • review m • Handover session SCOPE SPECIFY DESIGN BUILD DOCUMENT TEST USE 00 all text.indd 5 02/03/2010 13:50
- 21. PFI PPP Financial Modelling and Analysis 6 OBJECTIVE OF THE MODEL TBA USERS OF THE MODEL TBA OUTPUT SCHEDULES REQUIRED TBA MATERIAL CALCULATIONS TBA INPUT DATA TBA FUNCTIONALITY REQUIRED TBA required to produce the profit and loss, cash flow and balance sheet over the concession. There is a requirement to ensure that a balanced and attractive stakeholder position is achieved. In terms of the key output schedules that would be required, these are profit and loss, cash flow and balance sheet over the concession, usually on a six-monthly basis if the senior lender is likely to ask for its ratios to be measured semi-annually, thus addressing periodicity. Lend- ers’ ratios and shareholders’ internal rate of return (IRR), and the unitary payment at base year prices, are likely to be key outputs. Sensitivities – that is, the ability to flex the projects assumptions and observe the impact upon the results in the base case – should be derived from the project’s risk assessment pro- cess. Major risks should always be defined as sensitivity cases and the impact measured and mitigated accordingly. The timescale for your bid or for closing your project is critical, due to the size of the scope or type of resource required. For example, if time is tight you may want to limit the out- puts of your model to a bare minimum and ensure that you use an experience modeller on the project, one that is able to close out the work quickly and efficiently. Functionality refers to the need to have special facilities in the model over and above the basic calculations. For instance, important functionalities in bid modelling are the ability to optimise the unitary charge for a given shareholder blended return and the facility to sculpt the senior debt principal profile given the lenders’ target cover ratios. At the specification stage, it is advisable to prepare a document that considers the purpose of the model, key outputs, material calculations and assumptions as highlighted in the scoping stage. An example of a template for scoping the financial model at a high level before commit- ting to a more detailed specification can be seen in Illustration 3. Illustration 3 Scoping template Moving on to the design stage, its often important to consider whether Excel is the best plat- form for this modelling; given the nature of PFI PPP bid projects, the answer to this is almost always a yes. You should consider how many Excel workbooks are required. My experience of finan- cial close or bid financial modelling is that the single Excel workbook will normally suffice. 00 all text.indd 6 02/03/2010 13:50
- 22. 7 However, a very important consideration is the model’s structure and layout. Personally, I prefer to adopt a modular approach with sheets that are labelled with commonsense names. Also from experience, I have often witnessed financial staff and modellers jump straight into the build stage, and indeed many best practice methodologies ignore the other processes or stages associated with FMBP outlined in this book. I recommend adopting the following simple principles when using Excel. • Keep a clear separation of inputs, calculations and outputs. More simply, try to design the model so that it reads like a book from left to right. Where you cannot avoid includ- ing calculations with your inputs, please ensure that you protect the calculation cells appropriately. • Only use one unique formula per row. This means that the logic placed in the first column should be copied across all columns of a timeline, making it easier for you and others to review your formulae. • To ensure logical accuracy, ensure as many cross checks and audit checks as possible are placed in the model. Some obvious ones are balance sheets balancing, cash flows equal- ling the movement in the balance sheet, and net profits equalling the movement in the balance sheet retained earnings. • Try to keep your formula as simple as possible and your labels as clear as possible. How- ever, it is understood that it is often difficult to have very simplistic formulae when a finan- cial model builder is trying to gain flexibility in respect of the calculations and assumptions in the financial model. Again, a balanced approach should be adopted. The need to produce user and technical documentation and a data book, and the testing and the use of the model, will be discussed in more detail later in this section. A further recommendation is that both version and change control logs are kept in your model: • to ensure that each model version has a sequentially numbered suffix at the end of the Excel filename (eg, financialmodelV1.xls) and, where timing permits, log the differences between each model version in the models version control sheet (see Illustration 4. Ver- sion control). • so that you can use the model’s change request log for changes requested or work out- standing and their status (see Illustration 5. Change control). I will now take you through the process of building the bid or financial close financial model. The approach taken is a step-by-step one, using Excel financial model extracts, and will often use Excel Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) logic or macros (please note that the basics of Excel VBA and macros are considered beyond the scope of this book, and reference should be made to appropriate text or training in this rather complex area). Those with limited knowledge of Excel VBA will find this preparation a prerequisite for understanding some of the more advanced tech- niques used, which are essential for our financial modelling and analysis requirements. Scope Obviously, given the discussions regarding FMBP outlined above, our starting point here is to define the scope of our PFI PPP financial model build project. Bid or Financial Close Modelling 00 all text.indd 7 02/03/2010 13:50
- 23. PFI PPP Financial Modelling and Analysis 8 Illustration 4 Version control Number File name Date Changes / comments Modeller’s name 1 FinancialModel.xls December 24 2007 Include interest on DSRA MRA David Whittaker 2 € € € € 3 € € € € 4 € € € € 5 € € € € 6 € € € € 7 € € € € Illustration 5 Change control Number File name Date Change request details Modeller’s name Status 1 FinancialModel2.xls August 12 2009 Incorporate cash sweep logic John Hargreaves Outstanding 2 € € € € € 3 € € € € € 4 € € € € € 5 € € € € € 6 € € € € € 7 € € € € € 8 € € € € € 9 € € € € € 10 € € € € € First, the purpose of the financial model is to provide financial projections or forecasts for an infrastructure project, whether a road, school or a hospital, through the use of a typical design, build finance and operate PFI PPP structure. Second, given the nature of this type of project and its key stakeholders, we consider what the key output schedules are. We will start by considering the stakeholders who are likely to be involved: we have the project’s sponsors who typically provide the equity and subordinated debt, the lenders who typically provide the senior debt and the public sector body who will typically pay the unitary charge to the private sector service provider. Given the nature of our stakeholders and the requirements of the special purpose company (SPC), the following key requirements can be summarised: • To prepare a profit and loss account, balance sheet and cash flow over the life of the concession. 00 all text.indd 8 02/03/2010 13:50
- 24. 9 • To evaluate and measure the shareholder’s returns. • To evaluate and measure the senior lenders’ debt cover. • To provide a unitary charge or bid price to the government over the life of the concession. Third, when considering the periodicity of our financial modelling, it is fairly normal that the timeline is on a monthly basis during the construction phase and thereafter is every six months. The six-monthly timeline reflects the semi-annual requirement to service the senior lenders’ debt requirements. Fourth, we need the ability to sculpt our senior debt repayment profile to fit the projects cash flow profile. Lastly, after the completion of the bid teams risk assessment, we can identify a number of sensitivity cases that require our analysis. For the purpose of this book, we will restrict our analy- sis to two simple cases – changes in the retail price index and changes in the lenders’ base rates. Illustration 6 Specification template Specification V1. The financial model for the project XXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXX Forecasting purposes CONTENTS Objective of the model. ............................................... Page x Users of the model..................................................... Page x Output schedules required......................................... Page x Material calculations.................................................. Page x Input data................................................................... Page x Functionality required. ................................................ Page x Appendices................................................................. Page x 1.╇ Objective of the model The model will be used for xxxxxxxxxxxxxx purposes. The objective of the model is to provide x years financial forecasts on a (monthly/yearly basis). Cash flow TBA; Profit and loss account TBA; Balance sheet TBA; Key ratios TBA Appendix A shows the outputs outlined above. 2.╇ Users of the model The model will be owned and used by xxxxx xxxs and their team. The model will be made available to TBA bank. 3.╇ Output schedule required The output schedule formats are outlined in Appendix A. 4.╇ Material calculations a. Specify new products Bid or Financial Close Modelling continued 00 all text.indd 9 02/03/2010 13:50
- 25. PFI PPP Financial Modelling and Analysis 10 b. Specify others c. Specify others d. Specify others 5.╇ Input data The inputs are as required to be derived from the models outputs and calculations, and MS will define these. More specifically TBA. 7.╇ Functionality required i. User menu bars for navigation. TBA ii. Defined sensitivity cases TBA iii. Any optimisations TBA iv. Any other areas TBA Appendix A Output schedules •â•‡ Cash flow format TBA Attach specimen outputs •â•‡ Profit and loss account TBA Attach specimen outputs •â•‡ Balance sheer TBA Attach specimen outputs •â•‡ Key output summary TBA Attach specimen outputs APPENDIX B Input schedules The inputs are as required from the models outputs and calculations, and modelling solutions will define these where they haven’t been outlined. Designing the financial model Again, given the discussions regarding FMBP outlined above, our next stage is to define the design for our PFI PPP financial model. It’s obvious to us that our financial model can and will be built in Excel. Any version from Excel 2002 onwards will be suitable for our requirements. One workbook is all that is required and we will design our model on a modular basis, breaking down the key areas of the logic. Layout The next stage is to define the structure of the financial model in Excel for our PFI PPP finan- cial model, so that we can complete the logic and define the inputs and collect them. The example outlined in Illustration 7 (see Illustration 7.xls) shows a layout of the finan- cial model that will allow us to complete our financial model. 00 all text.indd 10 02/03/2010 13:50
- 26. Discovering Diverse Content Through Random Scribd Documents
- 27. You'd never be fascinated by anybody, she said. You'd always be quite calm. Besides, you don't want to be thought wonderful. I don't want Brummagem admiration. And you don't give it! she flashed at him. You don't give any admiration. You don't think I'm wonderful. You think I'm a silly child. Well, that makes ... you see, I couldn't love you.... By the way, said Edgar, coolly. What makes you think you're so jolly wonderful? Is it something you do, or something you are? Patricia looked at him breathlessly. She was stimulated to temper. Nobody could ever love you! she cried angrily. You're too inhuman! vi Her hands were now altogether withdrawn from him, and tears sparkled in her eyes. Edgar bent forward, so that she could not escape him. Look here, Patricia, he said. Can you imagine the feeling of a lover who hears that the girl he loves has been making love to an obvious rotter the previous evening? I mean, if there's one thing that strikes me about Monty more than another it is his lack of ... what can I say?—his lack of.... I think he's obviously sensual and unclean. I can't see his fascination for you. If I came to you and said I'd been with some horrible woman, wouldn't you turn sick? Well, I'm disappointed. I'm angry. The love-making is nothing unless you meant it, which you didn't. It's nothing. You exaggerate its importance. You were never in any real danger. I don't blame you, except for folly. Though of course I don't like it. But that you should be taken in by Monty!
- 28. I wasn't taken in. I knew he must be a rotter. And yet, you see, I went there, said Patricia. That shows the sort of girl I am. I was miserable and reckless. It amused me to—to play with him, if you like. It made me feel a woman. I was trying to grow up. You've made a mistake, Edgar. She was bitter, but not only with anger. There was hopelessness also in her defiance. You ought to marry a nice girl. I propose to, said Edgar. I propose to marry you. Oho! cried Patricia. You won't marry me. You needn't think it. Unless of course, retorted Edgar.... Unless I adopt you. That might be the simpler course. He also for the moment was bitter with chagrin. He was encountering a fact which was hard to accept; and he was in love with Patricia. vii Leaving Patricia aghast at his alternative, he began to drive on; and the sun continued to glitter upon the polished metal of the car and upon the wind screen. Patricia lay back in her corner recovering her temper and her composure. Presently she shouted at him. You've got too much respect for women! she said. Edgar took no notice of her. She was quiet a little while, thinking. At last: You're quite right. I'm not wonderful! Edgar, stop! I want to talk to you. I want to tell you something. The car was checked; and in her very truthful voice Patricia described the events of the previous evening. When she came to the thousand pounds Edgar exclaimed. At the mention of two thousand he turned quickly to her.
- 29. Monty was prepared to go up to two-thousand five-hundred, he said. He's got a regal way of pensioning his mistresses. You might have made two-thousand five-hundred pounds, Patricia. He offered to marry me, answered Patricia, defiantly. But he didn't really mean it, of course. It was only something to attract my attention. I was thinking, said Edgar, slowly. Your lovers are rather a fine set of men, aren't they! You think they're something to be conceited about? retorted Patricia. Edgar, don't you really think I'm rather wonderful! It was apparently wistful; but only apparently so. I'm so concerned with my own marvellousness, he crudely answered, that I can't spare time to admire yours. But Edgar, girls have to be admired, she said. Look here: you've done something. You've achieved something. Can't you see that if you've never done anything you have to make up something to live for. If I loved you, and had no other ambition, I could live in your interests, as you want me to. But I can't play second fiddle—not yet —not until I've sown my wild oats. If I'm no good, then.... Edgar turned round. If he observed the fiddler sowing wild oats he ignored the confusion. There's something in that, he said. I don't want you to play second fiddle. You haven't made up your mind to marry me; but you've got a sense that you're going to ... that's so, isn't it? There was a pause. I think so, answered Patricia at last, in a very quiet voice. It seems inevitable. That is, if I'm to marry anybody at all. But I'm not ready to marry you. What you'd like to do is not to make up your mind. You'd like to go on as we are, being friends, until I'm tired of you and you are tired
- 30. of me, and we can have disagreeable middle-ages of loneliness and regret. I don't care to waste our lives in that way. I admit that I'm not an ideal lover; but I've got other points, and you know them. You know that in some curious way you depend on me. You may not be in love with me; but no other man means as much to you, or will ever mean as much. If it's put to you that you either marry me or lose me, you'll marry me rather than lose me. But if you don't love me, it would be very wrong to marry me simply because you couldn't bear to lose me.... Patricia allowed him to wander on. She was smiling. I like to hear you talk, she said. It's agreeable. It's all irrelevant, and verbose; and if you think I'm to be threatened into marrying you, you're mistaken. Can't you see it would murder my vanity? But I haven't anything to give you. You'd be giving to me all the time. I could have given something they wanted to Harry and Monty, and when it came to the point I wouldn't give it, because they couldn't give me anything I wanted in exchange. You can give me a lot. You can make my life worth living. But I can't give you anything, because you don't want it. We'll get on to Winchester now, said Edgar, with studied—even ostentatious—patience. Because I want to take you back to London to tea with some friends of ours—Olivia and Peter Stephens. Stephens? said Patricia. Aren't they ... aren't they the married people who are happy? She became thoughtful. The car began to move; but she was unconscious of everything but her own darting intuitions. Amy ... the happy young lovers ... what had Amy said? For an instant full memory of the conversation eluded her. Then at last. Why take me there? she asked. It'll do you good to meet some real people for a change, said Edgar. Happy people. People who haven't got their heads cluttered with sophistication and egotism. People who aren't sterile sensation- rakers, and lascivious fiddlers with their senses.
- 31. Again Patricia was lost in thought. His rather heated tone was a natural discouragement to her. Suddenly she gave an exclamation. Oh, babies! she said. She did not open her lips again until the car arrived in Winchester. viii They had lunched, and were again upon the road; and the bare hedges showed Patricia lands that stretched full of wood and copse and meadow into the farthest distance. From a high place upon a common, where Edgar had halted for the sake of the glorious panorama, she could see Hampshire extending upon the one hand and Surrey upon the other. She was very happy now, but her heart a little ached. It was the breeze, perhaps, that chilled; or a return of her old painful feeling of loneliness.... But as Patricia thought that, she knew suddenly what she wanted, and Edgar knew it also, for he put his arm round her. My old sweet, he said. Never think I don't love you,—as much as any Harry or Monty; and with the same warmth. I do. You're everything to me. His lips were very close; and still Patricia delayed, not excited, but welcoming, half-smiling, half-afraid. She was shy. She had not been shy with Harry or with Monty. But she was shy with Edgar. From him a kiss seemed almost ceremonial. And as she thought that, Patricia blushed. Don't let's go to the Stephenses', she said, breathlessly, her head lowered. I know why you want me to go there. Do you want babies so much, Edgar? More than you want me? You see, I'm ... I know I'm conceited and horrible ... but it's because I feel so worthless. Lower and lower sank her head, to his breast, and she was held
- 32. close to Edgar's heart. Funny heart, to beat, she said. You do love me, don't you.... Really love me.... Really, he swore. All my heart. And you think I'm an idiot. Yes. Patricia hit her lover a sharp blow of exasperation. And you don't think I'm wonderful. No. She sat upright again, still within the circle of his arm. Has your car got a name? she asked. Yes, Budge. Claudia named him; because at first he wouldn't. She kept saying 'He won't budge. He won't budge.' And suddenly he did. So that's how he was christened. Well, said Patricia, as though she were concluding a scene. This is all very well; but ... Edgar, you do love me? And you'll try to make me less idiotic? Of course, I'm not in love with you. You don't attract me at all. But in a sort of way you're rather nice. Her lips were trembling. She blinked away some tears. It did not at all accord with her anticipation of romance. And yet it was shot through and through with a beautiful tranquillity. I wish you'd let me kiss you, said Edgar. I can't if you turn your face away. Unless I slew it round by force. Silly! muttered Patricia. Edgar exerted force. Not much was necessary. Patricia put her arms round his neck, and they kissed, and then laughed. Suppose we're making a mistake, she cried. Suppose it's all wrong. After all, most people take a risk, said Edgar.
- 33. I don't take a risk. It's you who take the risk, she answered. You can be trusted. I can't. Look at the way I've behaved. I'm a rake! Suppose I ran away with somebody? Then I should keep the babies, said Edgar. Patricia looked indignantly at him. You're only a great baby yourself! she said. How extraordinary! And I thought.... She was amazed. It was a discovery of the most astounding significance to her. She had thought of him always hitherto as a grown-up. Was he then not grown-up? Her eyes glowed. Edgar, tell me this! she exclaimed. Are you afraid of me? I am, said Edgar. Truly afraid? And do you think I'm a poor insect? I think you're the most wonderful creature that ever lived. I adore you, said Edgar. Great tears splashed from Patricia's eyes. Laughing, she held him closely, and impulsively kissed the brown cheek next her own. Dearest! she cried. It's a dream. I didn't know I ... I didn't realise how much I loved you, until just exactly that moment when I saw you were nothing but a silly baby. But you're artful, you know! You're a deep one. Ruminatingly, she presently added: I'm not so sure about those risks. She was strangely exalted and happy, and her face was the funny face of a baby; and she sometimes could not meet Edgar's eyes, and sometimes boldly sought them; and altogether was mystified by her own sensations, and by the odd thoughts which came sparkling into her mind and on to her tongue. The two of them continued to sit in Budge and to be consumed in the marvel of their situation. Around them the wind played and the sun shone as it travelled towards the west, and the counties continued to subsist as if no lovers sat high above them absorbed in joy.
- 34. THE END.
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