Planning & evaluating front office operations
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The document discusses forecasting room availability in hotels. It explains that forecasting the number of rooms available for sale is important for front office planning and management. The summary provides an overview of key factors considered in forecasts, such as historical occupancy data, reservations, expected no-shows, overstays and understays. Formulas are provided to calculate forecasts based on this data. Maintaining accurate forecasts is important for revenue management and scheduling staff.
Planning & evaluating front office operations
- 1. PLANNING & EVALUATING FRONT OFFICE OPERATIONS PRABAL MUKHERJEE FACULTY INDIAN HOTEL ACADEMY
- 2. FORECASTING The most important short-term planning performed by front-office managers is forecasting the number of rooms available for sale on any future date. Room availability forecasts are used to help manage the reservations process and guide front-office in effective room management. Forecasting may be especially important on nights when a full house (100% occupancy) is possible. A room availability forecast
- 3. FORECASTING can also be used as an occupancy forecast, since there is a fixed number of rooms available in the hotel, forecasting the number of rooms expected to be occupied forecasts the occupancy percentage expected on a given date. Rooms occupancy forecasts can be useful to the front-office and other departments for scheduling the necessary number of employees for an expected volume of business.
- 4. FORECASTING Obviously, a forecast is only as reliable as the information on which it is based .Since forecasts can serve as a guide in determining operating costs, every effort should be made to ensure forecasting accuracy. Various factors which play an important role while forecasting room availability.
- 5. FORECASTING 1. A thorough knowledge of the hotel and its surroundings. 2. Market profile of the constituencies the hotel services. 3. Occupancy data for the past several months and for the same period of the previous year. 4. Reservation trends and a history of reservation lead times(how far is advance reservations are made)
- 6. FORECASTING 5. A listing of special events scheduled in the surrounding geographical area. 6. Business profile of specific groups booked for the forecast dates. 7. The number of non-guaranteed and guaranteed reservations and an estimate of the number of expected no-shows. 8. Group bookings and the cut-off date for room blocks held for the forecast dates.
- 7. FORECASTING 9. The impact of city-wide or multi-hotel groups and their potential influence on the forecast dates. 10. Plans for remodeling or renovating the hotel that would change the number of available rooms. 11. Construction or renovation plans for competitive hotels in the area.
- 8. FORECASTING Forecasting Data The process of forecasting room availability generally relies on historical occupancy data. To facilitate forecasting ,the following daily occupancy data should be collected: Number of expected room arrivals Number of expected room walk-ins Number of expected room stayovers(rooms occupied on previous
- 9. FORECASTING nights that will continues to be occupied for the night in question) Number of expected room no-shows Number of expected room understays(check-outs occurring before expected departure date) Number of expected room check-outs Number of expected room overstays (check-outs occurring after the expected departure)
- 10. FORECASTING Over- all, the above data are important to room availability forecasting since they are used in calculating various daily operating ratios that help determine the number of available rooms for sale.
- 11. FORECASTING uests Arrivals walkins Reser. No show Occupied Rooms Overstay Understays 118 70 13 63 03 95 7 1 145 55 15 48 08 120 9 5 176 68 16 56 04 115 12 4 117 53 22 48 17 90 5 3 75 35 08 35 08 50 3 0 86 28 06 26 04 55 2 8 49 17 10 12 05 40 4 5 766 326 90 288 52 565 42 26
- 12. FORECASTING PERCENTAGE OF UNDERSTAY : When a guest checks out before his expected date of depurture as mentioned in at the time of biiking or at the time of registration, is known as understay. The percentage of understay is calculated by dividing the total number of understays during the forecast period by the total number of check-outs in the same period and then multiplying by 100. Understay percentage = Total no. of understays in a specific duration X 100 Total no. of check-outs in that duration
- 13. FORECASTING = 26/335x100 = 7.6 % Understays lead to the availability of more rooms at the last moment, which cannot be sold by the efforts of the front office and sales departments. This results in the loss of revenue. The condition is reverse in the case of overstays when the occupancy is lean - then the hotel generates extra revenue. The front desk employees should always re-confirm the expected date of departure from the guest at the time of registration.
- 14. FORECASTING PERCENTAGE OF NO-SHOWS : If a guest with a confrimed reservation does not arrive at the hotel on the date of arrival and does not convey his change of plan to the hotel, it is known as no-show. The no-show percentage helps the front office manager to decide the ealy release of rooms to chance guests or walk-ins. The no-show percentage can be calculated by dividing the total number of no-shows in specific duration by the total number of bookings made in the same period and then multiplying by 100. No-show percentage = Total number of no-shows in a specific duration X 100 Total nuber of reservations in that specific durtion
- 15. FORECASTING =50/280x100 = 17.54% PERCENTGE OF OVERSTAY Guests staying beyond their expected date of departure are known as overstays. The percentage of overstays can be calculated by dividing the total number of overstays in a specific duration by the total number of check-outs in the same period and then multiplying by 100. Overstays result in lowering the room availability. This condition id favourable in the lean season as hotels generally run on low occupancy levels and can accommodate the request of overstay.
- 16. FORECASTING The percentage of overstays, calculated from the data of Hotel ABC, is as under: Overstay Percentage = Total no. of overstays in specific duration X 100 Total number of check-outs in that duration = 42/335 X 100 = 12.53%
- 17. FORECASTING Once the above statistics are gathered, one can forecast the total availability of rooms for any particular day by processing the information as under: Total availability of rooms = Total number of guests - Out of order rooms - Total number of stay overs - Total number of reservations + Number of reservations X percentage of no-shows - number of overstays. Forecasting helps in developing revenue management strategies of the hotel. Accuracy in forecasting is achieved by the proper analysis of information available to the manager and also by the personal experience of the manager.
- 18. FORCASTINGFORECAST FORMULA Once relevant occupancy statistics have been gathered" the number of rooms available for sale on any given date can be determined by the following formula :
- 19. FORCASTING Note that this formula does not include walk-ins. They are not included because the number of walk-ins a hotel can accept is determined by the number of rooms that remain available for sale. If a hotel is full due to e!isting reservations," stayovers" and other factors" it cannot accept walk-ins. As an example, take Hotel Holy Cross, a 120 room property, where on April, 01, there were 3 out of order rooms, 55 stayovers. On that day 42 guests are with reservations, scheduled to arrive. Since the percentage of no shows has been recently calculated the 18.06 percent, the front office manager calculates that as many as 8 guests
- 20. FORECASTING ● Ten-Day room availability forecasting – The ten-day room availability forecasting at most lodges is developed collectively by means of the front administrative center supervisor and the reservations manager, almost certainly together with a forecast committee. A ten-day forecast almost always includes : ● Day-to-day forecasted occupancy figures, including room arrivals, room departures, rooms bought, and number of friends. ● The number of crew commitments, with a listing of each and every team’s title, arrival and departure dates, number of rooms reserved, quantity of friends and probably quoted room rates. ● A comparison of the previous interval’s forecasted and actual room counts and occupancy percentages
- 21. FORECASTING ● The ten-day room availability forecasting must be completed and allotted to all department offices to help plan their staffing for the upcoming period. ● Three-Day room availability forecasting – a 3-day room availability forecasting is an updated report that reflects a extra current estimate of room availability. It details any tremendous alterations from the ten-day forecast. The three-day forecast is meant to advisor management in quality tuning labor schedules and adjusting room availability understanding.