Powering ahead 2010

Powering ahead: 2010
An outlook for renewable energy M&A

A DV I S O RY

About the research
This report provides an insight into the global M&A activity in renewable energy. The findings
are based on a survey of over 250 senior executives active in the renewable energy industry
worldwide. The survey and report were written in collaboration with VB/Research, a specialist
renewable energy research and data provider. Transaction data and statistics included in the
report have been extracted directly from VB/Research’s databases.
Geographical breakdown of respondents

The survey was conducted between January and March 2010 and was completed
5% 5%
by five different types of respondents – corporates, financial investors, debt
9%
providers, government bodies and service providers. Among the respondents,
75 percent were top-level executives such as chairpersons, senior executives
18% 34%
or divisional heads. Surveyed respondents were split among Western Europe
(33 percent), North America (29 percent) and Asia-Pacific (18 percent), with Eastern
Europe, Middle East and Africa, and South America accounting for the remaining.

29%

To supplement the survey results, interviews were also conducted with the
following senior executives:
Western Europe
North America Areva SA Rabobank International
Asia-Pacific Anil Srivastava, Senior Executive Marcel Gerritsen, Global Head
Eastern Europe Vice President and Chief Executive of Renewable Energy &
Middle East and Africa Officer, Areva Renewables Infrastructure Finance
South America A leading company in the nuclear A provider of diverse financing solutions
power industry, which is also active in for renewable energy projects in Europe,
offshore wind energy, bio-energy, solar Asia and the Americas
power, and hydrogen carrier and energy
Breakdown by type of respondent
storage solutions United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate
Centrosolar Group AG Change (UNFCCC)
6% Thomas Kneip, Vice President, Yvo de Boer, Executive Secretary
7%
Business Development Head of the UNFCCC since 2006 and
A vertically integrated solar photovoltaic Chairman of the Copenhagen Climate
(PV) company based in Germany Change Conference in December 2009;
16% 38%
Yvo de Boer will join KPMG on July 1,
Covanta Energy Corporation 2010 as Global Advisor on Climate and
Allard Nooy, President Asia Pacific Sustainable Development.
33% A global owner and operator of
energy-from-waste and power Definition:
generation projects Mergers & Acquisitions (“M&A”)
All corporate M&A transactions
Corporates: Companies operating within
E.ON Climate and (mergers, acquisitions and minority
the energy sector, or owning a company
(e.g., energy utility firm, oil & gas major, Renewables GmbH investments) as well as private equity
energy producer, energy distributor) Cord Landsmann, transactions such as buyouts, public-to-
Service providers (e.g., investment bank, Chief Financial Officer private deals and secondary buyouts.
financial advisory firm, law firm) The renewable energy and carbon
Investors: Companies investing in the energy sourcing division of E.ON Group, For the purpose of the report, M&A
sector (e.g., private equity fund, infrastructure one of the world’s largest owners transactions until April 14, 2010 have
fund, hedge fund, asset manager) of renewable power projects been tracked.
Government bodies (e.g., internal/
external investment agency, cluster, Hudson Clean Energy Partners
trade organisation)
John Cavalier, Managing Partner
Debt providers: Companies providing debt A global private equity firm, focused on
finance to companies investing or operating
in the energy sector (e.g., overdraft/term renewable power, alternative fuels,
loans, project finance, revolving credit) energy efficiency and storage
© 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the KPMG network of
independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved.

Contents

Foreword 1

Executive summary 3

Transaction activity picked up the pace in late 2009 5

Government incentives are fuelling M&A 9

M&A rises to the top of the agenda 17

How long will it remain a buyers’ market? 21

Financing conditions remain demanding 27

Cover image: Courtesy of BARD Group
Description: Erection of the BARD nearshore wind turbine


1 Powering Ahead: 2010 – An outlook for renewable energy M&A

Foreword

Could anyone have envisaged just how much
the market would change since our first report
on M&A activity in the renewable energy
sector in 2008?

Two years ago, the temperature was at boiling point with significant
premiums paid on deals, as major developers sought to establish a position
in the renewables sector. Investors were prepared to pay substantial sums
for portfolios that contained long development pipelines but few operating
assets. Issues around the availability of turbines and silicon, combined with
grid connection and planning delays in some markets, were converging
to create an investment bubble.

When the financial crisis took hold, lenders stepped back from the risky end of the
market. With financing drying up for early-stage development assets and lenders
Andy Cox
working hard to reduce their exposure to the sector, many projects are being
Partner, KPMG in the UK
stalled or even shelved in the face of the capital drought. Deal multiples fell as
Global Head of Energy and acquirers were no longer willing to pay for development pipelines that only offered
Utilities for Transaction Services the potential for hard returns at some point in the distant future. 2009 saw
governments around the world promise major capital injections and a wealth of
incentives. As a result, over the period of this year’s survey, we have started to
see the impact of these stimulus measures on M&A activity.

On a positive note, we have seen a dramatic increase of 145 percent in global deal
volume in Q1 2010 compared with Q1 2009; despite over half of the respondents
finding financing harder. In part, this may suggest that investors are being forced
to increase the proportion of equity in a deal to fund a successful transaction.

Powering Ahead: 2010 – An outlook for renewable energy M&A 2

This is surprising, as the macro-economic certainly attractive factors in its favour firepower of sovereign wealth funds
view seems to suggest that lending is – not least its potential to generate could also hold the key to financing the
becoming easier. While recent headlines greater returns than wind. Although sector but perhaps we might also see
suggest that there are positive signs there is no doubt solar and wind will new interest in renewables from major
that the financial services industry is continue to drive deal activity, our corporates, and not just from the
recovering, this response shows that research suggests that from a global utilities sector. Could the May 2010
it remains fragile. We believe capital perspective, biomass too, will play a announced participation of internet
funding will be the single biggest significant role in investment growth. giant Google in onshore wind in the
challenge for the next decade, with US be the beginning of a new trend?
Of course, the growth in renewables
renewable energy projects competing Whether it is or not, renewable energy
will not happen, if there is no money
for capital alongside a whole range of remains a rapidly changing sector and
to support its development. With fierce
other important infrastructure projects, I believe the results of our survey
competition to gain access to bank
including energy, transport and will continue to provide an interesting
capital and some government programs
healthcare projects. perspective to those who participate
tailing off, everyone is asking the same
and invest in it.
Perhaps the most surprising finding question – where will the capital come
is that survey respondents are now from? Recent conversations I’ve had
seeing biomass as a serious contender with Asian players in countries such as
for investment alongside solar and wind. Japan and Korea suggest that they may
While biomass lags behind wind and be ready to invest heavily around the
solar in terms of maturity, there are world in renewables. The potential


3 Powering Ahead: 2010 – An outlook for renewable energy M&A

Executive Summary
Not sprinting but definitely jogging
The new decade has started on a more positive note, when
compared to how the last one ended. In the first few months
of 2010, the number of completed deals in the renewable
energy sector more than doubled in comparison to the
corresponding period last year.

Surveyed respondents agree that Thank government incentives global energy related CO2 emissions. ”
M&A activity is picking up, with over The disappointing outcome of the Over half of the surveyed respondents
90 percent intending to undertake a Copenhagen Climate Change Conference believe that these initiatives will act as
transaction in the next 18 months. in December 2009 (COP15) is not the principal driver for M&A activity in
expected to have any impact on global the next 18 months. North America,
In terms of completed M&A deals the
M&A activity. As Yvo de Boer, Executive particularly the US, tops the list of
solar sub-sector continues to lead in
Secretary of the United Nations targeted countries for M&A transactions,
2010, with wind following closely
Framework Convention on Climate supported by the American Recovery
behind. Last year, the solar and wind
Change, commented “Despite the and Reinvestment Act (ARRA).
sub-sectors together accounted for
absence of a legally binding agreement, China and India have moved much
approximately 50 percent of the 300
countries will go ahead and implement higher up the target list when compared
completed M&A deals.
plans of their own. This view is supported
” with last year’s survey, bolstered by
Equity capital market activity has also by an overwhelming 88 percent of the stronger incentive programs, along with
started to recover, with optimism most surveyed respondents who believe that a reduction in stimulus by some major
evident in China (since it lifted its IPO the result of the summit will not affect European countries such as Germany
freeze in June 2009) and North America M&A activity worldwide. and Spain.
(where the surveyed respondents are
Many countries have now approved and Other factors that continue to fuel M&A
showing the greatest confidence in
are distributing significant incentives activity in the sector include energy
securing public equity funding).
and stimuli in the form of direct grants, security concerns, fluctuating oil prices,
feed-in-tariffs (FiTs) and/or loan and the availability of renewable
guarantees. According to Yvo De Boer, ”feedstock”. In the background,
“Since the summit, 43 industrialized government-financed clusters are
countries as well as 41 developing nurturing the development of early
nations have submitted national targets stage technology companies and
and action plans to reduce carbon innovators.
emissions on a national level. These
countries represent 80 percent of the


Powering Ahead: 2010 – An outlook for renewable energy M&A

“The companies that
are able to partner or
be acquired will stay,
the others will struggle
to survive.”
Anil Srivastava, Areva SA

There’s still a valuation “gap” Biomass shining through Yet despite these challenges,
There remains consistent with last year Looking at which renewable sub sectors it is interesting to see that the
a significant gap between the valuation are most attractive, the survey has companies with the money to
expectations of sellers and acquirers. found a change in appetite from last support their convictions are
year’s findings with biomass (37 percent) driving biomass forward alongside
Looking forward many industry players
increasing to the same level of appeal their wind and solar portfolios,
and investors expect valuations and
as solar (36 percent) and onshore wind which are arguably easier to deliver
deal sizes to increase this year, although
(35 percent) for corporates and investors. in the short to medium term.
pricing is expected to remain problematic.
Transactions are currently closing at While wind is still recording significant
around 9x historic EBITDA, equating deal activity, our research has shown
to an average discount of about that dealmakers, particularly large
30 percent to 2006 - 2008 valuation companies such as the utilities, are
multiples. However, over two-thirds looking for the next global trend and
of the surveyed corporates do not biomass looks like it is positioned to be
expect to pay more than 5x EBITDA one of the most active sub-sectors for
for renewable energy companies MA in the next 18 months.
or projects.
Biomass plants are capable of yielding
Funding demand outstrips supply higher returns than other renewable
Although banks are keen on the energy sources and operate more
renewable energy sector, securing effectively as a base load power
finance has become harder over the source in comparison to intermittent
past year for over 50 percent of the technologies such as wind and solar.
surveyed respondents. Two of the main
However, the biomass sub-sector still
reasons are: a substantial increase in
faces difficult challenges such as
margins (approximately three times the
securing finance for construction,
average margin offered three years ago)
identifying long term sources of fuel,
and a debt market that is growing less
and the visibility of fuel prices.
rapidly than the sector’s ever growing
financing requirements.

“Despite the absence of a legally binding agreement,
countries will go ahead and implement plans of their own.
”
Yvo de Boer, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)


5 Powering Ahead: 2010 – An outlook for renewable energy MA

The second half of 2008 and the first few months
of 2009 were challenging for many players in the
renewable energy sector as uncertainty in the
financial markets and the slow pace of economic
recovery made raising capital difficult.

Transaction activity picked up
the pace in late 2009
However, as 2009 wore on, activity in the MA arena and public markets picked
up pace. On the MA front, more and more companies with strong balance sheets
tried to capitalize on attractive valuations and smaller companies’ desperate need
for capital. The year finished with over 300 acquisitions worldwide, totaling over
US$53bn in value.

Over the first three months of 2010, MA deal values declined slightly from late
2009 levels; however, deal volume remained strong. As shown in Figure 1, the
number of deals completed in the first quarter of 2010 (150) is more than double
that in the corresponding period in 2009 (61). In terms of regions, North America
maintained its allure – 46 percent of the announced MA deals (69) involved target
companies based in North America in Q1 2010, compared to 41 percent for the
whole of 2009 (46). Barring any new significant negative development in the
financial markets, all signs point to 2010 being a stronger year for MA activity.

Solar remains the most popular sub-sector and leads in terms of the number
of deals in 2010, with 31 deals recorded up to mid-April. However, in terms of
aggregated transaction value, the wind sub-sector was actually larger during the
same period – US$1.8bn compared to US$1.5bn in the solar sub-sector. This is
largely due to two big Iberian deals, with Enel and Iberdrola recently announcing
investments of €860m and €320m respectively, in wind assets in Spain.


Powering Ahead: 2010 – An outlook for renewable energy MA

Figure 1: Global MA activity

20 160
18 140
16
120
14
12 100

$ billion
10 80
8 60
6
40
4
2 20

0 0
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10
Source: VB/Research Investment (in $ billion) Number of Transactions

In terms of valuation, average multiples equities remains shaky in the American the 70-MW Criterion farm in Maryland
have fallen by around 30 percent between and European markets. More positively, – and Duke Energy’s entry into the solar
2009 and 2010. Between 2006 and 2008, several IPOs in Asia made big headlines market with its January 2010 purchase
some highly priced deals dragged the toward the end of 2009, with the Chinese of the 16-MW Blue Wing project in Texas.
average up, close to 3x historic revenue government ending a nine-month IPO These transactions indicate that US
and 13x historic EBITDA. Transactions freeze on the Shanghai Exchange. federal and state policies are finally
are now priced closer to 2x historic convincing some of the more traditional
While most attention in the renewable
revenue and 9x historic EBITDA as investors and energy firms to turn to
power sector has been focused on big
investors continue to show greater cleaner sources of power generation
European utilities such as Enel and
caution about overpaying. to grow their businesses.
Iberdrola, it is important to mention that
In public markets, green indices were the US, whose wind power capacity One final trend worth noting in 2009
hit hard during 2008 and the first quarter soared by 39 percent in 2009, also was the heightened MA activity
of 2009, with some of them losing as witnessed healthy MA activity among of large industrial corporates.
much as 75 percent of their pre-crisis its utilities. Examples include Kansas- Companies including Robert Bosch
value. While there was some recovery based Westar Energy’s acquisition of GmbH, Areva SA, Bayer CropScience AG,
over the last nine months of 2009, the the development rights to a 500-MW Daewoo International, General Electric,
indices are still faring worse than the wind project from Infinity Wind Saint-Gobain SA, Siemens Energy AG
general market indicators. The first Power in January 2010, utility giant and Royal Philips Electronics acquired
three months of 2010 have not seen any Constellation Energy’s purchase of its renewable energy companies
improvement as investor confidence in first wind asset in November 2009 – during 2009.

© 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the
KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International
provides no client services. All rights reserved.


Focus on...
Solar This is due to a combination of over- following the decision to cut solar
MA in the solar sector is being driven capacity among panel manufacturers subsidies in Spain and Germany.
in three ways – market consolidation, and a sharp plunge in global silicon
In 2010, notable solar deals include
to increase the dominance of existing prices, both of which have led to an
Solutia’s acquisition of Etimex, which
players through MAs; technology- unsustainable situation for many
produces plastics for solar panels,
motivated acquisitions; and smaller factory owners. One large
and French nuclear operator Areva’s
downstream acquisitions, to improve player that has capitalized is GCL-Poly
acquisition of Ausra, an Australian
access to the end-user. The solar Energy Holdings, which has transacted
developer that moved to California in
market stands out in this respect with over US$5bn in completed or
2008 to focus on large, utility-scale
24 percent of the total MA deals in announced acquisitions in 2009 and
solar thermal projects. The latter is of
2009 covering technology companies, early 2010. Production cost concerns
particular interest, as an example of a
manufacturers, service providers and will also push developers toward
mature player in the power industry
installers. China, which supplies regions providing low-cost
seeking to expand in the renewable
about half the world’s solar modules, manufacturing solutions, especially
energy sector.
has seen a big share of the action.

Wind generation In the UK, the British Government’s projected capacity of 206-MW) along
In the wind sector, large project buyers 2009 Budget announced a series of with a refinancing of the project. At the
in 2009 and 2010 included Italy’s Enel, support measures aimed at stimulating end of 2009, DONG Energy and Siemens
Spain’s Iberdrola, UK’s Renewable renewable energy projects including Project Ventures acquired a 50 percent
Energy Systems, Ireland’s Bord Gais £525m for offshore wind farms through stake in Centrica’s 270-MW Lincs project.
Eireann and North America’s NextEra the Renewable Obligation scheme. DONG Energy also announced the sale
Energy Resources. Gamesa was also Since this announcement a series of a minority stake in its 367-MW
active, announcing its intention to of transactions have taken place as Walney offshore wind farm project to
acquire a minority stake of German developers have sought to reduce their Scottish Southern Energy. The UK
offshore wind developer BARD in risk and attract third party capital to remains a highly attractive market
February 2010. The German company their offshore wind commitments. boasting potentially the largest wind
recently launched its tailor-made These transactions included investment resources in Europe and a well-defined
installation vessel and is planning to use company TCW’s acquisition in October subsidy regime.
it for its own 5-MW turbines at a 400- 2009 of a 50 percent stake in Centrica’s
MW wind farm in the North Sea in 2010. Boreas portfolio (total installed and

Biofuel Northeast Biofuels, acquired by the capacity to produce about 2 billion
Uncertainty in the US over the Sunoco, and Panda Ethanol’s partially liters of ethanol per annum. The joint
continuation of its tax credits regime, complete plant by Societe Generale. venture should enable these two
which is expected to expire at the end In March 2010, the Renewable Fuels companies to dominate the domestic
of 2010 (and in 2012 for cellulosic Reinvestment Act, seeking to extend Brazilian market and become major
biofuels), has also driven market the US$0.45 per gallon blender credit, global players within the sub-sector.
consolidation in the biofuel sub-sector. was presented to the house members Nonetheless, the success of marketing
VeraSun, which at one point claimed to but has not yet been ratified. Brazilian ethanol globally will depend
be the biggest ethanol producer in the on several factors beyond the
In Brazil, the most significant
US, was forced to seek bankruptcy companies’ control, with the prevailing
announcement in January 2010 was
protection after a rapid decline in corn price of oil and US import tariff
Shell and Cosan’s US$12bn joint
prices, becoming the most prominent restrictions being the most important.
venture (JV). Shell is paying US$1.625bn
casualty in 2009. Valero Energy Other recent entrants in the Brazilian
over the next two years for its share in
emerged as the biggest winner from ethanol market include India’s Shree
the venture, and is also contributing its
VeraSun’s liquidation, acquiring seven Renuka Sugars and North America’s
Brazilian downstream assets and its
different ethanol plants for US$477m Amyris Biotechnologies. Brazil’s cheap
interests in Iogen Energy and Codexis,
(US$0.60 per gallon of operating sugar cane and its well-developed
which are biotech firms that specialize
capacity), reported to represent biofuel infrastructure have played a
in advanced ethanol production. Cosan
only 30 percent of the assets’ large role in attracting big names to
is contributing both its downstream
replacement value. Other bankruptcies its biofuel market.
and production assets, which include
hastened fire sales in 2009, including


Powering Ahead: 2010 – An outlook for renewable energy MA

The table below lists some of the largest transactions tracked during 2009 and the first months of 2010. Only transactions for
which a deal value has been announced have been listed in the table.
Notable MA Transactions – 2010 Year To Date
Target Target Acquirer Acquirer Sector Date Deal value Valuation metrics
country country (US$m)
Cosan Ltd. Brazil Royal Dutch The Biofuels Jan 2010 1,625 N/A1
Shell plc Netherlands
Gamesa’s El Andevalo wind Spain Iberdrola SA Spain Wind Feb 2010 440 1,800 (US$ per kW in operation)
farm (244-MW)
Equipav S.A. Açúcar e Álcool Brazil Shree Renuka India Biofuels Feb 2010 324 N/A1
Sugars Ltd.
Endesa Renovables Spain Enel Spa Italy Wind Mar 2010 1,184 1,350 (US$ per kW in operation)2
(1,460-MW) (mostly)
Etimex Solar GmbH Germany Solutia Inc. USA Solar Mar 2010 326 10.1x EBITDA

Notable MA Transactions – 2009
Target Target Acquirer Acquirer Sector Date Deal value Valuation metrics
country country (US$m)
Endesa renewable portfolio Spain Enel Spa Italy Wind, Feb 2009 3,558 1,690 (US$ per kW in operation)2
(2,105-MW) Hydro
Greatest Joy International China GCL-Poly Energy China Solar Jun 2009 912 N/A1
Ltd. Holdings Limited
Waneta Dam (490-MW) Canada BC Hydro Canada Hydro Jun 2009 729 4,460 (US$ per kW in operation)3
Canadian Hydro Developers, Canada Transalta Corp. Canada Hydro, Jul 2009 1,470 2,250 (US$ per kW in operation)3
Inc. (700-MW of operational Wind,
assets) Biomass
Turkish wind farm portfolio Turkey Renewable Energy UK Wind Oct 2009 1,107 2,200 (US$ per kW in late
(500-MW) Systems Ltd. development)
Elkem AS hydro plants Norway Norsk Norway Hydro Oct 2009 1,033 2,995 (US$ per kW in operation)
(350-MW) Vannkraftproduksjon
AS
Apollo Precision Ltd. China RBI Holdings Ltd. China Solar Oct 2009 539 N/A1
SWS Natural Resources Ireland Bord Gais Eireann Ireland Wind Dec 2009 755 14.3x EBITDA
Moema Group Brazil Bunge Ltd. USA Biofuels Dec 2009 896 6.90 (US$ per gallon of annual
(5 Sugar mills, 130-MGY) operating capacity)

Source: VB/Research
1
The relevant information was not available at the time the deal was announced.
2
Enel purchased a 60 percent stake. The valuation multiple has been calculated on the basis of an implied
100 percent acquisition.
3
Transalta ultimately ended up purchasing a 93.5 percent stake in November 2009. The valuation multiple
has been calculated on the basis of an implied 100 percent acquisition.
Biomass and Clean Coal
Rounding up recent power generation
deals, Greenspark Power Holdings, Wind technology
a subsidiary of the Australian private This sub-sector has been impacted Hydro
equity firm Pacific Equity Partners, by weakening demand in the wind The more mature forms of renewable
acquired a 79.6 percent share of turbine market. The deep backlogs in generation, such as wind and hydro,
the power plant operator Energy turbine orders that were commonplace have also witnessed an increase in
Developments Ltd., which generates in early 2009 have been replaced by MA activity in the second half of
600-MW of worldwide capacity from rapidly shrinking orders as developers 2009 and early 2010. On the hydro
waste coal mine gas, compressed struggled to obtain financing for their front, several large transactions were
natural gas and landfill gas. In the US, projects. Industry players reacted announced in Canada by companies
Arch Coal obtained a 35 percent equity swiftly to this trend. For example, such as BC Hydro in June 2009
interest in the 600-MW Trailblazer Iberdrola divested 10 percent of its (CAD$825m) and Transalta Corp. in
Energy Center project from Tenaska. holding in Gamesa for over €391.7m July 2009 (CAD$754m). In addition,
Trailblazer will be one of the world’s in a private placement in June 2009. the Canadian Brookfield Renewable
cleanest coal plants, capturing 85 – 90 Later in the year, AE Rotor received Power Fund, formerly known as
percent of the carbon dioxide produced £224m for its 35 percent share in Great Lakes Hydro Income Fund,
in combustion and then piping the gas Hansen Transmissions, while United acquired 15 hydroelectric plants from
for use in enhanced oil recovery at a Technologies acquired a 49.5 percent Brookfield Renewable Power Inc. in
nearby oil field. stake in Clipper Windpower for £166m. July 2009 for CAD$945m.



Although a global agreement on emission targets
was not achieved at COP15 in December 2009,
the lack of a binding agreement is unlikely to
discourage corporates and investors from investing
further in the renewable energy sector.

Government incentives are
fuelling MA
Among the surveyed respondents, an overwhelming 88 percent believe that the
result of the summit will not directly affect MA activity worldwide.

Anil Srivastava comments, “I believe [the lack of outcome of COP15] will mainly
impact the number of projects in emerging countries, which will decrease, and
affect the broader development of renewable energy generation projects worldwide. ”
This is despite an agreement during the summit to provide US$30bn in short-term
financing to support developing countries. “The key question, says Yvo de Boer “
”
is how will these funds be delivered and how will the money be put back into
greening the economy? A clear financial architecture has to be defined. In addition
the role of financial institutions such as The World Bank has to be clarified.
”

Regional climate change concerns, energy security issues and economic rationale
are all prompting developed countries to provide the renewable energy sector with
a range of increasingly differentiated incentives and grants. According to Yvo de Boer,
“Regions and countries have to do what they can on a regional and country basis.
A global agreement is the last resort, i.e. when it cannot be avoided. The slimmer
the international agreement, the better!”


Powering Ahead: 2010 – An outlook for renewable energy MA 10

“Regions and countries have to do what they can
on a regional and country basis. A global agreement
is the last resort, i.e. when it cannot be avoided.
The slimmer the international agreement, the better!”
Yvo de Boer, United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC)

Significantly over half of the surveyed These government initiatives will also as indicated by 54 percent of those
respondents predict that these regional drive cross-border MA activity. surveyed (see Figure 2). Since the
regulations and tariffs will actually Countries with attractive incentives beginning of 2010, 46 percent of the
accelerate MA activity during the next will enhance their appeal to foreign announced MA deals (69) have
18 months. At the sub-sector level, corporates and investors, who are involved companies based in North
these incentives will also have a increasingly looking for scale and a America, up from 41 percent (46 deals)
profound impact on MA. As Thomas global footprint. Surveyed respondents in 2009.
Kneip, Vice President of Business strongly agree – over 65 percent of
Compared with last year’s survey,
Development at Centrosolar Group, the corporates and investors based
India (36 percent) and China (34 percent)
comments, “In the photovoltaic in North America or Europe intend to
are increasingly being targeted by
industry, MA activity is largely driven invest or acquire a renewable energy
companies considering acquisitions
by valuation and country specific company or project outside their own
(2009: India – 23 percent and China –
regulations. For example, the US, India region in the next 18 months.
22 percent).
and China have developed important
In line with last year’s survey, North
stimuli packages to support the
America is forecast to attract a majority
industry.”
of active investors and acquirers globally,



Focus on...

North America • Earmarking of grants, loans and loan Canada has also undertaken several
The American Recovery and guarantees from the Department of initiatives such as the launch of a
Reinvestment Act (ARRA), which Energy (allocated since mid-2009), CAD$1bn Clean Energy Fund by the
came into effect in early 2009, and including a loan guarantee program Canadian government to invest in
subsequent incentives and stimulus of US$30bn; major support includes large-scale carbon capture storage
have made North America the preferred a US$249m grant for A123 Systems pilot projects and smaller-scale pilot
geography for acquisitions of renewable and a US$1.37bn loan guarantee for projects of renewable and alternative
energy projects or companies. Almost BrightSource Energy energy technologies (May 2009).
half of European and a third of Asia- This is in addition to Ontario’s Green
• State-led plans, such as California’s
Pacific respondents are considering Energy and Green Economy Act
decision in September 2009 to
acquisition targets in North America (passed in May 2009), which supports
increase its percentage of energy
in the next 18 months (see Figure 2). a range of renewable energy, energy
consumption from renewable
The largest share of respondents efficiency and smart grid projects,
energy sources to 33 percent by
(36 percent) specifically stated that including the adoption of a FiT program.
2020, following an executive order
they are motivated by local government This program is similar to other FiT
from the Governor, and a grant
incentives (see Figure 3). schemes in European countries and
of US$40m allocated by ARRA to
covers solar, wind, water, biomass,
Although the Clean Energy and renewable energy initiatives in the
biogas and landfill gas.
Security Act (ACES), which would state of Virginia in October 2009
introduce a carbon cap-and-trade
• An increase in the required volume
scheme and federal Renewable Energy
of biofuel to be blended into
Standard, is still pending approval by
transportation fuel from a base of
the Senate, recent initiatives continue
9 billion gallons in 2008 to 36 billion
to confirm the US Government’s ongoing
gallons by 2022 (approved by the
support for the sector.These include
Environmental Protection Agency
in February 2010).

Figure 2: In which of these countries do you envisage your company investing in renewable
energy projects or companies in the next 1 months? (Respondents: Corporates and Investors)

North America 54% 88%
Other West 45% 39%
European countries
Middle Eastern 37% 37%
North African countries
Germany 37% 39%

India 36% 34%
United Kingdom 39%
Ireland 34%

China 34% 32%
Other Asia-Pacific 34%
countries 31%
East European 26% 27%
countries Russia
Other 22% 20%

Worldwide respondents North American respondents

North America
Source: VB/Research 48% 33%
Other West 66%
© 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. 33%
Member firms of the KPMG network of
European countries independent firms are affiliated with KPMG International. KPMG International provides no client services. All rights reserved.


Figure 3: What is the main reason for your company’s expected investments in these regions in the next 1 months?
(Respondents: Corporates and Investors)

100%
Availability of renewable energy
90% Competitiveness
Other
80%
Market demand
70% Government incentives
60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
North America India United Kingdom China
Ireland Source: VB/Research

India the installation of 20-GW of solar the creation of a competitive
Other West 45% 39%
While Western European countries
European countries energy (both photovoltaic and solar environment for solar energy
such as Germany
Middle Eastern have recently thermal) capacity by 2022. It is one of development, 37%leading to 20-GW
37%
North African countries reduce their
announced plans to eight national programs the Indian of power, which is planned by the
Germany
subsidies, other countries, including 37%
Government intends to deploy as part end of the third39%
phase in 2022.
India have increased their incentive of its National Action Plan on Climate This supplements the existing
India 36% 34%
programs. In September 2009, Change. This plan will be developed in Electricity Act 2003 and National
United Kingdom 39%
India’s Central Electricity Regulatory
Ireland 34%
three phases. The first phase, running Tariff Policy 2006, which make
Commission announced the launch of up to 2013, will focus on installing provisions for state and central
China 34% 32%
a FiT scheme for renewable energy solar thermal systems and promoting electricity boards to buy grid-based
Other Asia-Pacific 34%
projects, including wind and solar
countries 31%
off-grid systems to serve communities power from renewable sources.
energy. The Solar India Initiative,
East European without access to grid infrastructure.
26% 27%
announced Russiathe year, targets
countries later in The second phase, up to 2017 involves
,
Other 22% 20%

Worldwide respondents North American respondents

Other West
European countries 66% 33%
North African countries
Germany 48% 29%

India 32% 71%
United Kingdom
Ireland 45% 24%

China 41% 43%
Other Asia-Pacific
countries 25% 52%
East European 32%
countries Russia 29%

Other 11% 29%

European respondents Asia-Pacific respondents

Source: VB/Research



“The central Government in China has committed to
significant renewable energy generation targets.
By 2010, 10 percent of the total energy generation mix
is expected to come from renewable energy sources.
As of today, the country is close to reaching this target.
”
Allard Nooy, Covanta Energy Corporation

China • The Golden Sun initiative, launched
Over 40 percent of the surveyed in June 2009, which aims to install
European corporates and investors 500-MW of solar electricity across
and a third of North American China over the next three years.
respondents are considering Chinese Under this initiative, the Government
acquisition targets in the next 18 will subsidize 50 percent of the total
months (see Figure 2). Recent investment cost per project as well
regulations have increased China’s as relevant power transmission and
attractiveness to non-domestic distribution systems to connect
corporates and investors. Allard Nooy, them to the grid
President, Asia-Pacific, at Covanta
• A plan to increase solar capacity by
Energy, comments, “The central
2011 by the local Government of
Government in China has committed
Beijing (late 2009) by developing a
to significant renewable energy
promotion program for new energy.
generation targets. By the end of
This includes developing solar
2010, 10 percent of the total energy
power infrastructure for the city,
generation mix is expected to come
which would be capable of producing
from renewable energy sources. As of
up to 70-MW of solar power
today, the country is close to reaching
this target. Examples include
” • The introduction of a standardized
FiT for wind farm projects approved
• Solar subsidies for new solar
since August 1, 2009.
installations larger than 50-kW
(March 2009), with a priority on
building integrated photovoltaics



United Kingdom • A suite of FiTs for small scale, low- the Government announced several
European respondents slightly favor carbon electricity installations of up measures to support offshore
North America (48 percent) as a target to 5-MW which became effective renewable energy, including £60m
region for MA activity over the UK in April 2010, along with a plan for for the development of port sites
Ireland (45 percent). Interestingly, a renewable heat incentive to be to host offshore wind turbine
Figure 2 indicates that the UK introduced in April 2011 manufacturers as well as a £2bn
Ireland and China ranked at the same Green Investment Bank. This will be
• £60m in funding to build wave and
level in terms of attractiveness for invested in renewable energy, with a
tidal testing facilities to pilot new
MA transactions. focus on offshore wind and green
technologies in strategic parts of
transport schemes. Despite this,
A few months after an announcement the country
the largest share of respondents
in the 2009 budget to allocate £1.4bn
• Up to £120m to support the growth (33 percent) who selected the UK
to clean technologies and renewable
of an offshore wind industry. Ireland cited public demand for greater
energy, including £525m for offshore
In addition, £8.6bn was announced provision of renewable energy as the
wind farms through the Renewable
in May 2009 to equip every home main driver, ahead of government
Obligation scheme, the UK
in Britain with smart meters by the incentives (see Figure 3).
Government proposed a Low Carbon
Transition Plan in July 2009 including end of 2020. In late March 2010,

“We aim in the long run
to achieve grid parity
without subsidies.
...we would not choose
locations with poor or
uncertain access to
the energy source,
even though they
could benefit from
important incentive-
based regimes. ”
Cord Landsmann, E.ON Climate
and Renewables GmbH



Other Asia-Pacific countries
Large energy importer South
Korea announced a considerable
US$84.5bn investment plan in July
2009 to support environment-related
industries and set its greenhouse
gas emission reduction target at
30 percent by 2020. Although the
country proposed plans to decrease
subsidies in August 2009 for large-
scale solar systems and reduce
subsidized solar power caps, South
Korea continues to reiterate its plan
to play a major role in the renewable
energy sector. Early this year, the
South Korean government announced
a smart grid plan to support the
development of smart electricity
grids with funding up to US$24bn.

Australia’s extensive renewable
energy resources are largely
undeveloped (with the exception
of hydro and wind). Nevertheless,
the country, in its 2009 budget,
announced a A$4.5bn Clean Energy
Initiative to support the development
of renewable energy, including
A$1.4bn to support the Solar Flagship
Program to fund the construction
of large-scale, grid-connected solar
power stations using solar thermal
and photovoltaic technologies.
The program aims to build up to
1,000 megawatts of solar power
generation capacity to provide a
large scale market demonstration of
the potential of solar energy to be
constructed and operational within a
major electricity grid. Together with
the Australian Government’s recent
announcement in March 2010 to
enhance the Renewable Energy
Target to further encourage the
deployment of large scale renewable
power generation, these initiatives
will assist to deliver on the 20 percent
(or 41,000-GWh) target by 2020.



Non government MA drivers sustainability and climate change
Although government incentives make agendas by improving their products
a substantial impact on the direction and services. ”
of investments, their limited duration
Acquisition strategies are also closely
is an important factor that should be
associated with building market share.
considered. As Cord Landsmann,
The largest share of respondents
Chief Financial Officer at E.ON
interested in Middle Eastern and
Climate and Renewables GmbH, notes,
North African targets (33 percent)
“Businesses are under “We aim in the long run to achieve
cited public demand for greater provision
pressure to hold with grid parity without subsidies. ...we
of renewable energy as the main
would not choose locations with poor
the sustainability and driver for investment and MA
or uncertain access to the energy
climate change agendas source, even though they could
activity in the region.

by improving their benefit from important incentive-based MA deals will also be boosted by
products and services. ” regimes.” Other drivers of cross- financial backers looking to exit their
border MA in the sector include current portfolio companies. Venture
Yvo de Boer, United Nations capital investors who reached their
energy security in the form of reliable
Framework Convention on
Climate Change (UNFCCC) energy supply and secure production investment limit during the downturn
facilities; volatile fossil fuel prices; by providing follow-on financing to
market consolidation; and increasing their portfolio companies, and funds
demand within society for a renewable/ that were raised over five years ago
alternative energy supply. As Yvo de are desperately looking to exit some
Boer points out, “Businesses are of their investments. With the IPO
under pressure to hold with the market still fragile, MA is the most
attractive exit route.

Additional incentives government and trade organizations
Sixteen government and trade collaborate with well-established
organizations were surveyed this private and public companies,
year, among which 7 were based in which fuels partnerships between
Western Europe, 5 in North America innovators and more established
and 4 in the Middle East North Africa. operators. Most surveyed government
participants cooperate with utilities
Most of these organizations nurture
and Independent Power Producers
small businesses in “clusters.”
(88 percent), as well as specialist
Examples include the National
renewable energy companies or
Renewable Energy Lab in the US,
subsidiaries of integrated utilities
the Vancouver Fuel Cell Cluster in
(75 percent). For example, the
Canada, “Silicon Fen” in the UK and
Copenhagen Cleantech Cluster,
the Copenhagen Cleantech Cluster
launched in late 2009, comprises 40
in Denmark. Among the surveyed
companies, including DONG Energy
government organizations, the four
and Vestas. The Finnish Cleantech
most common services offered to
Cluster is partnering with Yes Bank
businesses are accelerated access to
in India to create cross-border
strategic vendors; subsidy and grant
partnership opportunities.
schemes; mentoring; and funding.
To achieve their objectives, most



After a year on the sidelines, corporates and
investors have regained confidence and are
now actively looking to make acquisitions in
2010 in the renewable energy sector. More than
90 percent of surveyed respondents are
considering MA activity in the next 18 months.

MA rises to the top of
the agenda
Last year, 45 percent of the surveyed respondents were either not planning to make
any acquisitions during the following 12 months or were undecided. During the first
quarter of 2010, 150 transactions with a combined value of US$14.3bn were announced,
compared with 61 deals representing US$8.8bn during the first quarter of last year
(see Figure 1). This momentum is expected to be maintained in 2010, with companies
continuing to announce acquisition plans on the back of prior-year profits, in parallel
with a fundraising and in some cases to counterbalance disappointing trading.
Recent examples include Boralex Inc., the Canadian diversified renewable energy
company, which intends to pursue its acquisition strategy throughout 2010 along
with obtaining financing and developing projects; and Schneider Electric SA,
which intends to maintain its acquisitions strategy despite a 49 percent decline
in profitability in 2009.

Inorganic growth through acquisitions will essentially be twofold: technology-
motivated, driven by technology or manufacturing conglomerates’ intent on
entering or expanding their activities in the sector and establishing an end-to-end
solution or service; and client-side motivated, to get closer to the end-user.
Both types of transactions are set to intensify. As Thomas Kneip notes, “Corporates,
already active in the renewable energy sector, will seek to integrate horizontally
for geographical expansion or downstream to get access to installers and
system integrators. ”



Figure : Please specify your company’s target sub-sectors for acquisitions of
renewable energy projects or companies. (Respondents: Corporates and Investors)

60%

50% Corporates
Investors
Combined
40%

30%

20%

10%

Source: VB/Research 0%
Biomass
Solar -
Solar Plant
Onshore Wind -
Wind Farm
Solar -
Technologies Equipment
Biofuels

Micro-generation

Hydro
Solar -
Management Installation
Onshore Wind -
Other
Offshore Wind -
Onshore Wind -
Geothermal
Offshore Wind -
Wind Farm
Marine/Tidal/Wav
Offshore Wind -
Many start-ups and SMEs with limited
financial resources before the economic
slowdown are now even frailer and will
be forced to consider a sale in the next
18 months. Those that decide to remain
independent may well face difficulties
in 2010. As Anil Srivastava notes,
“The companies that are able to partner
or be acquired will stay, the others will
struggle to survive.”

This trend started in 2009, mainly in Corporation acquired most of Veolia In terms of sub-sectors that are most
solar and wind. In 2009, there were Environmental Services’ US energy- attractive to respondents, the survey
over 300 completed MA transactions from-waste business for US$450m. findings indicate a change in appetite
of which nearly 50 percent were in the Later, in a revised offer in November from last year’s findings, with biomass
solar and wind sub-sectors (24 percent 2009, Infinis Energy offered £64m for reaching a similar level of appeal
each). The consolidation dynamic is also a majority stake in Novera Energy (37 percent) to solar (36 percent)
picking up in the highly fragmented that generated, at the time of the and onshore wind (35 percent)
biomass sub-sector, as indicated by a transaction, half of its total installed (see Figure 4).
number of large transactions last year. capacity of 143-MW from landfill
In July 2009, Covanta Holding gas plants.



Focus on...
Biomass Furthermore, the potential for biomass current environment with many lenders
Dealmakers, particularly large to operate as a base-load power source requiringa”turnkey”construction contract,
corporates such as the utilities, provides advantages in comparison to which effectively guarantees the
are emphasizing biomass targets intermittent technologies such as wind construction cost and delivery program
in their MA plans in the next 18 and solar, particularly with regard to for projects, with clear contractor
months (see Figure 4). integration into large-scale electricity penalties if there are delays. Unfortunately,
distribution networks. turnkey contracts in biomass do come
Biomass plants have much greater
at a price – adding up to 20 percent to
potential to yield higher returns than However, biomass companies have
the capital cost. Despite the fuel and
other renewable sources – a well- important challenges to address,
construction challenges, it is interesting
executed biomass plant can deliver in particular focusing on the visibility
to see that the companies with the
substantially greater economies of long-term fuel supply and pricing.
money to support their convictions are
of scale than wind; and the heat These challenges are hampering
driving biomass forward alongside their
generated from incineration can the availability of funding for many
wind and solar portfolios, which are
supply neighboring buildings, creating projects. Furthermore, securing funding
arguably easier to deliver in the short-
an additional revenue stream. for construction is no mean feat in the
to-medium term.

“Corporates, already Solar of the corporate respondents are
active in the renewable Technology gaps and improved targeting acquisitions in solar
access to end-users will underpin management and installation
energy sector, will seek to
corporate acquisition activity in businesses over the next 18 months.
integrate horizontally for the solar sub-sector.
Aside from solar plants, investors
geographical expansion
Over 30 percent of the surveyed are showing a substantial interest in
or downstream to get corporates indicated an interest in solar technologies and equipment
access to installers and acquiring solar technologies and companies (39 percent; see Figure 4),
system integrators. ” equipment companies (see Figure 4). driven by the expected rapid market
Anil Srivastava believes this trend may consolidation in the sub-sector.
Thomas Kneip, Centrosolar be more pronounced within the less- “We will see a good level of MA
Group AG
developed sub-sectors of the solar activity over the next 18 months,
market, “While the solar photovoltaic especially in the solar sector, as its
sector has already seen significant value chain is currently changing
consolidation, concentrated solar substantially and is impacted by Asia
power is earlier in the process as it on the manufacturing side, explains
”
requires large amounts of capital. In a
” Marcel Gerritsen, Global Head of
move to secure access to customers Renewable Energy Infrastructure
and increase market share, 20 percent Finance at Rabobank.

“The offshore wind sector will be one of the sectors
that will suffer the most from this phenomenon.
New players like institutional investors can help
in reducing the gap between supply and demand
of debt.”
Marcel Gerritsen, Rabobank International



“We follow our boutique to industrial approach and target projects based on
scalable technologies that can provide synergies, and reduce costs. …The wind
sector is at an advanced stage of development and provides such characteristics,
while the solar sector is the next to follow with a huge potential of scalability..
””
Cord Landsmann, E.ON Climate and Renewables GmbH

Wind We expect financial investors to be Investors will play a vital role in this
Corporates will target acquisitions the major players in takeovers and process, explains Marcel Gerritsen,
that increase generation capacity, investments in technology and “I believe the crucial question for
leaving technology and equipment equipment companies. Figure 4 the next 18 months will be: is there
company acquisitions to investors. indicates that few of the surveyed sufficient debt available to reach the
corporates plan to acquire onshore EU’s 20 percent target by 2020?”
Projects in the wind industry remain
wind technologies and equipment He expects the availability of debt
attractive targets for both corporates
or onshore wind management and financing to recover more slowly than
and investors. Cord Landsmann
installation companies, whereas we the renewable energy sector, adding,
explains, “We follow our boutique to
expect investors to be more active “The offshore wind sector will be one
industrial approach and target projects
in these markets, driving efficiency of the sectors that will suffer the most
based on scalable technologies that
savings through market consolidation. from this phenomenon. New players
can provide synergies, and reduce
like institutional investors can help in
costs. …The wind sector is at an “The onshore wind sector started
reducing the gap between supply and
advanced stage of development and its consolidation in 2002-2003, but
demand of debt. ”
provides such characteristics, while there is still room for deals to be done.
the solar sector is the next to follow If further consolidation does not
with a huge potential of scalability.” take place over the next 18 months
some companies will disappear, ”
As the most mature renewable energy
Anil Srivastava explains. “If Chinese
sub-sector, synergistic technology
companies begin to move outside China,
acquisitions and downstream
I think this will push existing onshore
integration is less critical to corporates.
wind players to consolidate further. ”



During the last two years, the gap between
sellers’ and acquirers’ price expectations
widened, causing many MA deals to collapse.

How long will it remain a
buyers’ market?
Over a third of the surveyed corporates and investors indicated that a seller’s price
expectation was the primary cause for a failed deal, followed by issues emerging
during due diligence (27 percent) and uncertainties caused by the economic climate
(22 percent). More recently, this valuation gap seems to have narrowed, albeit by
differing degrees worldwide.

Globally, 50 percent of the surveyed respondents expect to see financially stable
and fairly priced acquisition targets in 2010, a marked change from our 2008 report,
when more than half of the respondents agreed with the statement that there
was a risk that a bubble in the renewable energy sector was being created. Cord
Landsmann agrees, “We are now seeing more acquisition options compared to
12 months ago, when such opportunities were rare and not value-enhancing. ”
In parallel, we are predicting a continued flow of distressed assets coming to
the market in the next 18 months, exacerbated by ongoing tight debt financing
conditions. This trend is forecast by a majority of North American survey participants
(57 percent) and a smaller share of European participants (39 percent). Discussing
the type of distressed companies that will come to market, Thomas Kneip notes,
“I expect to see mainly new technology companies, upstream players with lack of
scale, or downstream players with no established sales organization or with a lack of
flexibility in their supply organization (such as extensive long-term supply contracts).
”



Figure 5: Over the next 1 months, how do you expect the following dynamics of
the renewable sector MA environment to change? (Respondents: All respondents)

Do not know 100%
Stay the same 90%
Decrease
80%
Increase
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%
Source: VB/Research
0%
Size of deals

Competition
for targets

Number of deals
under $50 million

Valuations for renewable
energy companies

Number of deals between
$50 million and $0.5 billion

Deals with delayed/contingent
payments rather than
up front lump sums

Number of deals between
$0.5 billion and $1 billion

Due diligence period

Number of deals
above $1 billion
Conversely, the Asia-Pacific region is
not registering any significant valuation
re-rating. In the next 18 months,
a majority of the industry players and
investors in the region (60 percent) are
forecasting a substantial number of
highly priced MA targets in the
renewable energy sector. Highlighting
China as an example, Allard Nooy
commented, “We have not seen a conditions improve. This should should increase again. Figure 5 indicates
”
substantial decrease in prices in China, accelerate MA activity among that this opinion is shared by 75 percent
mainly because it is a high growth corporate acquirers, particularly those of the respondents worldwide and is
market. In addition, the central with large balance sheets, in the particularly evident for deals with a
Government’s plans have encouraged coming months before the advantage valuation below US$1bn. Anil Srivastava
industrial activity, including the starts to swing back toward the seller. agrees but adds a note of caution,
renewable energy sector. ” As John Cavalier, Managing Partner “I expect the size of deals to increase
at Hudson Clean Energy Partners, as the industry will reopen and achieve
Most industry players and investors
explains, “The combination of these bigger multiples. However, I do not
expect valuations to recover in 2010
dynamics, among others, means that think valuations will experience some
(see Figure 5) as competition for
we expect valuation metrics will kind of magical turnaround in 2010. ”
targets intensifies and financing
increase and the average size of deals



Figure : Expected acquisition multiple for acquisition of renewable energy projects (Respondents: Corporates)

70% 0x-3x EBITDA
3x-5x EBITDA
60%
5x-7x EBITDA
Over 7x EBITDA
50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
Worldwide North American European Asia-Pacific
respondents respondents respondents respondents Source: VB/Research

Figure 7: Expected acquisition multiple for acquisition of renewable energy companies (Respondents: Corporates)

60% 0x-3x EBITDA
3x-5x EBITDA
50% 5x-7x EBITDA
Over 7x EBITDA

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%
respondents respondents respondents respondents Source: VB/Research

Despite the forecast increase in (75 percent – Figure 6) or companies with acquiring companies above
valuation multiples, a sizeable buyer/ (67 percent – Figure 7) over the next 7x historic EBITDA (see Figure 7),
seller valuation gap still remains. 18 months. Furthermore, around whereas none of the Asia-Pacific
Renewable energy MA deals 40 percent of the corporates surveyed respondents indicated their intention
completed in 2009 for an enterprise will not even consider deals above to consider valuation multiples above
value above US$100m were priced at 3x historic EBITDA for either renewable this level.
an approximate 9x historic EBITDA energy projects (46 percent) or companies
The institutions that will be most active
multiple. Interestingly, over two-thirds (39 percent). Any increase in valuation
in the next 18 months are large corporates
of surveyed corporates do not expect multiples will be driven by corporates
with strong balance sheets and an
to pay more than 5x historic EBITDA mainly in North America and Europe -
international presence, enabling them
for either renewable energy projects around a quarter would be comfortable



“I expect to see mainly new technology companies,
upstream players with lack of scale, or downstream
players with no established sales organization or
with a lack of flexibility in their supply organization
(such as extensive long-term supply contracts). ”
Thomas Kneip, Centrosolar Group AG

“I expect the size of deals to increase as the industry
will reopen and achieve bigger multiples. However, I
do not think valuations will experience some kind of
magical turnaround in 2010. ”
Anil Srivastava, Areva SA

Figure : Over the next 1 months, which of the following institutions do you think are likely to be the most active
investors in Renewable Energy? (Select all that apply)

Specialist Renewable Energy companies 77%
and subsidiaries of integrated utilities
Infrastructure funds, Hedge funds 64%
and/or PE funds
Utility, Independant Power Producer 60%
(IPP) or other trade

Governments 31%

International organisations 28%
(e.g. European Investment Bank)

Sovereign wealth funds 25%

Other 8%

Do not know 3%
Source: VB/Research

to pursue deals without needing The sector is becoming much more through exchange rate movements, as
to secure additional debt finance. competitive. Large companies that are suggested by Allard Nooy, “[In China],
An overwhelming majority of expecting to have a strong presence Government support for renewable
respondents (77 percent) expect globally must act now; otherwise they energy ...has increased attention from
specialist renewable energy companies will not be able to dominate the market.
” non-industry players such as private
and subsidiaries of integrated utilities equity funds. They forecast substantial
Large financial investors, including
to be the most active participants capital appreciation, as well as an
insurance and pension funds, are also
(see Figure 8). John Cavalier notes, appreciation of the renminbi over other
likely to play a major role in 2010, given
“There are benefits of being a global currencies. As indicated in Figure 8,
”
the attractive long-term returns offered
company, such as economies of scale, almost two-thirds of the respondents
by the renewable energy sector. In Asia,
which are too important to ignore. … believe that financial investors will be
financial returns may also be enhanced


the most active acquirers in the next “Utilities are very active in the
18 months. This proportion is more [renewable energy] sector as they are
than double when compared with last building up their share of renewable
year’s survey results and represents energy in their generation mix, Cord
”
a substantial increase in forecast Landsmann explains. “However, it is
activity by financial investors. This is not enough to finance all the projects.
slightly ahead of forecast activity by Institutions, such as pension funds
from utilities and Independent Power and sovereign wealth funds, will
Producers (IPPs) – 60 percent of the facilitate the access to finance for
surveyed respondents expect utilities highly capital intensive industries such
and IPPs to be the leading investors as the offshore wind sector, where
in the renewable energy sector during single projects can require in excess
the next 18 months. of €1bn of capex. ”



“There are benefits of being a global company,
such as economies of scale, which are too
important to ignore. …The sector is becoming
much more competitive. Large companies that
are expecting to have a strong presence globally
must act now; otherwise they will not be able to
dominate the market. ”
John Cavalier, Hudson Clean Energy Partners



The past 12 months have proved very demanding
for companies seeking debt finance. Globally, a
majority of the respondents believe that securing
finance for acquisitions in the renewable energy
sector became harder or moderately harder
during the last year (see Figure 9).

Financing conditions remain
demanding

A further breakdown of Figure 9 by type of respondents shows that financial investors
were most seriously affected – 48 percent faced harder financing conditions, forcing
many of them to re-consider their leveraging strategy. Our 2010 survey indicates
that only 36 percent of financial investors worldwide are expecting to use leverage
above 50 percent over the next 18 months (i.e., a debt-to-equity ratio greater than
1:1). The majority (64 percent) anticipate using leverage below 50 percent (i.e., a
debt-to-equity ratio less than 1:1). This is in stark contrast with the 2008 survey,
when half of the surveyed companies were targeting leverage above 50 percent.

The availability of financing is forecast to improve, as banks become less risk-averse
than they were during the past 12 months. Anil Srivastava notes, “We have seen that
our customers have had a harder time securing finance. However, it seems that banks
are coming back to the table. A third of the surveyed debt providers indicated an
”
intention to increase their exposure to the sector in the next 18 months. In parallel,
46 percent of the surveyed corporates planning acquisitions over the next 18 months
are considering using bank financing to support their acquisition plans. Concrete plans
that have already been announced include Rabobank’s intention to raise up to €1.5bn
for a fund that will provide project finance for renewable power projects across Europe.



Figure 9: Which option best describes your experience of securing finance
for acquisitions of renewable energy projects or companies now compared
to 12 months ago? (Respondents: Corporates and Investors)

Harder: financing is 45%
less available
Moderately harder: 40%
financing is available
but the terms are 35%
uneconomic
30%
No measurable difference
Moderately easier: 25%
financing is available
and terms are becoming 20%
more economic
Easier: financing is 15%
available and terms
10%
are economic
Not applicable 5%

0%
Source: VB/Research respondents respondents respondents respondents

As Marcel Gerritsen comments, “I expect companies in the wind and solar sub- Srivastava notes, “Prior to the crisis,
to see an increased level of debt financing sectors. Already in April this year EDF it was an industry of announcements,
activity in 2010, especially in Asia and Energies Nouvelles signed a €500m announcements of projects that would
North America, where investment will financing framework agreement with the not be feasible to build. Today, contractors
be supported by government schemes. European Investment Bank (EIB), Banco are required to have a real ability to
Europe should see a similar level of activity Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA, BNP execute and a large balance sheet. ”
to 2009. Partly echoing this statement,
” Paribas, Dexia Credit Local and Societe
Asset quality aside, Marcel Gerritsen
the same percentage of the surveyed Generale for the French part of a 2010-
notes, “The renewable energy market
debt providers (42 percent) are considering 2012 solar photovoltaic investment
will grow more quickly than the banks’
offering financial solutions in North program set up by the company in
ability to provide financing. With the
”
America, India and China, and 58 percent France and Italy.
competition for assets intensifying, this
are eyeing financing deals in other Asia-
Although debt providers are expected limited availability of debt is impacting
Pacific countries. As Figure 10 indicates,
to increase their exposure to the renewable the financial terms on which banks are
they are especially interested in financing
energy sector over the next few months, prepared to lend. Although banks are
onshore wind farms (75 percent) and
the scale and speed of the recovery still, by a majority, keen to lend with a
solar plants (67 percent). Approximately
will clearly depend on the quality of period of more than 10 years, the premium
25 percent will also provide financing
the assets being financed. As Anil on such loans is expected to increase.
solutions to technology and equipment



Figure 10: Please specify the target sub-sectors for renewable energy projects or companies financing.
(Respondents: Debt providers)

Onshore Wind - Wind Farm 75%
Solar - Solar Plant 67%
Hydro 58%
Geothermal 50%
Onshore Wind - Management Installation 50%
Offshore Wind - Wind Farm 50%
Biomass 42%
Solar - Management Installation 42%
Onshore Wind - Technologies Equipment 25%
Offshore Wind - Management Installation 25%
Solar - Technologies Equipment 25%
Biofuels 17%
Offshore Wind - Technologies Equipment 17%
Other 8%
Micro-generation 8%
Marine/Tidal/Wave 8% Source: VB/Research

“I expect to see an increased level of debt financing activity in 2010, especially
in Asia and North America, where investment will be supported by government
schemes. Europe should see a similar level of activity to 2009. ”
Marcel Gerritsen, Rabobank International

Today, the majority of the surveyed 100bps three years ago, although he
” Financing will also rely on the equity
institutions active in the sector offer added that pricing (the margin over the capital markets. Over a quarter of the
loans over 10 years. Only 21 percent base rate) varies from project to project corporates worldwide expect to raise
target loan terms of 2 – 5. However, an based on multiple risk assessments. equity capital to fund acquisitions,
issue persists with debt tenures above “The main reason is the scarcity of long with North American respondents
15 years. Marcel Gerritsen points out, term bank debt, which I do not expect most confident of accessing this form
“Three years ago solar projects could to return in the next two to three years.
” of financing (32 percent). The IPO market,
be financed on the basis of a 15 to 20 which was effectively closed throughout
He also does not expect a significant
year loan. Now debt tenure is between 2009, is also touted as an increasingly
reduction in margins over the next
12-18 years for this type of project viable option for private companies in
18 months, “…margins could decrease
in Europe. ” 2010. A number of companies are
by 25bps or 50bps, but not more than
preparing for an IPO, including Abengoa
He continues “Generally speaking, that because regulators are defining
and Enel, which are expected to list part
margins have increased significantly new rules towards banks regarding
of their renewable energy businesses,
over the past two to three years. long term financing. These rules have
and the Chinese company Sinovel,
For example, onshore wind projects in to be priced.
”
which has announced plans to list on
Europe are now financed on average at
the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
300bps over the base rate, compared to



However, some companies that Although traditional financing sources “Prior to the crisis,
announced public plans in the first are reopening, financing MA
weeks of 2010 have already put their transactions may not be straightforward.
it was an industry
listings on hold including Jinko Solar As per last year’s report acquirers in the of announcements,
and Brazil’s Renova Energia. John sector may well need to continue to announcements of
Cavalier adds a word of caution on the find creative financing arrangements projects that would
public market’s re-emergence as a to bring their renewable plans to life.
source of fresh capital: “I am worried
not be feasible to build.
that valuations in the public market are Today, contractors are
excessive. If shareholders do not see required to have a real
effective returns on investments made ability to execute and
to date or see failed investments, new
a large balance sheet. ”
companies undertaking such public
fundraisings will not be able to raise Anil Srivastava, Areva SA
and attract the money they need, even
if they are deserving of investment. ”



Other KPMG thought leadership

Turning up the heat
An insight into MA
in the renewable energy sector in 2008

A DV I S O RY

The Winds of Change: Turning up the heat: China’s Energy Sector:
an Insight into MA in the an Insight into MA in the A Clearer View
Renewable Energy Industry in 2009 Renewable Energy Industry in 200 This report shares KPMG in China’s
KPMG and the EIU surveyed 200 KPMG and the EIU surveyed 200 energy observations on key trends in each
energy professionals to uncover their professionals to uncover their views on area of the energy sector, from up-
views on trends and challenges for trends and challenges for MA in the stream oil and gas to power
MA in the renewable energy industry. renewable energy industry. Fifty percent generation.
Deals were expected to be smaller, of global energy companies were wary
but still economically viable. of a possible renewable bubble.

The Application of IFRS: Energy and Natural Resources Finance Survey
Insights from leading finance functions
Power and Utilities
KPMG Global Energy Institute
Executive Summary
December 2008
ADVISORY

The Application of IFRS: The ENR Finance Survey – Insights Central and Eastern European
Power and Utilities from Leading Finance Functions Renewable Electricity Outlook
Discusses industry accounting Based on a survey of leading mining Highlights the most important trends
issues in international accounting and upstream power and utilities affecting the region’s renewable
standards and provides illustrations organizations that provides insight generation sector and includes
of how companies have sought to and views on the latest trends, KPMG’s perspective on the
address them. priorities and challenges for finance, development of the renewable
including their response to the power sector.
current economic turbulence.

Accounting for Carbon
KPMG LLP (UK)

Do you know the impact that your company’s activities in the carbon arena will
have on your financial results?

Guidance on accounting for The Business Issues • In the world of International Financial
emissions and allowances is Reporting Standards which adopts
a more rules based approach to
unclear. The key to accounting The recognition of climate change as
financial transactions, the resulting
for carbon is to establish a significant issue by the public and
impact on a company’s financial
appropriate policies and to the business community has resulted
statements is not always intuitive.
in rapid commercial response to new
ensure those policies are market opportunities.
It may involve subjective valuations
communicated effectively of assets or liabilities recognised
in advance of revenue and/or
to the stakeholders • Under the Kyoto Protocol
derivative financial instruments
industrialised countries have
which must be recorded on the
committed to emission reduction
balance sheet. Changes in value can
targets over the period 2008-12.
introduce a higher level of volatility
The protocol has resulted in a
to the income statement which in
market structure for trading in
many cases will be material and has
Allowances and Carbon Emission
the potential to affect public
Reductions (CERs) whether verified
reporting and share price movements
through regulated mechanisms,
such as the EU Emissions Trading
• Accounting policies adopted by new
Scheme and the Clean Development
businesses must accurately reflect
Mechanism or traded on the
the substance of transactions and
voluntary market (VERs)
risks involved and in the absence
of prescriptive guidance companies
• This activity will affect the operations
are often writing their policies from
and results of originators of CERs,
scratch. There is a risk of lack of
traders and brokers and companies
consistency and/or restatement in
purchasing them for offset purposes.
future years if inappropriate policies
The structure of transactions has
are adopted.
been rapidly evolving and can
be complex

Offshore wind farms in Europe Accounting for Carbon
Provides a market overview of the Discusses the impact of carbon trading on
offshore wind farms located in Europe financial statements; providing insights
and the general market assessment and strategies to help organizations
and expectations of companies that understand and manage the business
are involved. implications of climate change.

Background
The KPMG Global Energy Natural About the KPMG Global Energy
Resources (ENR) practice Institute (GEI)
The KPMG Global Energy Natural The KPMG Global Energy Institute
Resources (ENR) practice is dedicated has been established to provide an
to assisting all organizations operating open forum where industry financial
in the Oil Gas, Power Utilities, executives can share knowledge,
Mining and Forestry industries in gain insights, and access thought
dealing with industry trends and leadership about key industry issues
business issues. We believe we have and emerging trends.
a distinct portfolio of service offerings
which have been carefully tailored to Energy Companies’ financial, tax,
the needs of our clients, and can be risk, and legal executives will find
delivered by our industry professionals. the GEI and its Web-based portal to
We have a well balanced portfolio of be a valuable resource for insight on
clients, ranging from global super- emerging trends.
majors to next generation leaders
including those raising capital, some To register for your complimentary
for the first time, in local markets. membership in the KPMG
Global Energy Institute, please visit
The MA Energy and Utilities team at
KPMG is a leading global network of www.kpmgglobalenergyinstitute.com
transaction professionals that regularly
advises on some of the largest deals in
the sector. The team provides strategic,
financial and commercial advice on
all types of transactions including
acquisitions, disposals, fund raisings
and capital market offerings.


kpmg.com

KPMG’s Global Energy Natural Resources Contact
Michiel Soeting
Global Chair, Energy Natural Resources
+44 (0) 20 7694 3052
michiel.soeting@kpmg.co.uk

KPMG’s MA Energy Utilities team Primary Global Contacts

KPMG in the UK KPMG in France Jaap Van Roekel
Andy Cox Wilfried Lauriano Do Rego +31 20 656 7623
+44 (0) 207 311 4817 +33 1 55 68 68 72 vanroekel.jaap@kpmg.nl
andrew.f.cox@kpmg.co.uk wlaurianodorego@kpmg.com
KPMG in Poland
Richard Noble Chantal Toulas Marek Sosna
+44 (0) 207 311 4259 +33 1 55 68 93 37 +48 22 528 1203
richard.noble@kpmg.co.uk ctoulas@kpmg.com msosna@kpmg.pl

Adrian Scholtz KPMG in Germany Darek Marzec
+44 (0) 207 311 4230 Ingo Bick +48 22 528 1253
adrian.scholtz@kpmg.co.uk +49 211 475 7015 dmarzec@kpmg.pl
ibick@kpmg.com
Jamie Carstairs KPMG in Russia
+44 (0) 207 311 3511 Annette Schmitt Leonid Balanovsky
jamie.carstairs@kpmg.co.uk +49 699 587 1467 +7 (495) 937 4444 ext: 10455
aschmitt@kpmg.com lbalanovsky@kpmg.ru
KPMG in Australia
Mat Panopoulos KPMG in Hungary Thomas Beck
+61 3 9288 5148 Peter Kiss +7 (495) 663 8494 ext: 16396
mpanopoulos@kpmg.com.au +36 1 887 7384 thomasbeck@kpmg.ru
pkiss@kpmg.com
KPMG in Brazil KPMG in Spain
Andre Castello Branco KPMG in India David Hohn
+55 21 3515 9468 Bhavik Damodar +34 914 563 400
abranco@kpmg.com.br +91 223 090 2126 dhohn@kpmg.es
bdamodar@kpmg.com
Augusto Sales Manuel Santillana Owen
+55 21 3515 9443 KPMG in Italy +34 914 563 400
asales@kpmg.com.br Johan Bode msantillana@kpmg.es
+39 02 6 7631
KPMG in Canada johanbode@kpmg.it KPMG in the US
Matthew Tedford Tony Bohnert
+1 416 777 3328 KPMG in Japan +1 713 319 2524
mtedford@kpmg.ca Mina Sekiguchi abohnert@kpmg.com
+81 3 5218 6742
KPMG in China m.sekiguchi@jp.kpmg.com Peter Gray
Alex Henderson +1 212 872 7642
+86 10 8508 5806 KPMG in the Netherlands petergray@kpmg.com
alexander.henderson@kpmg.com.cn Hans Bongartz
+31 10 453 4466
bongartz.hans@kpmg.nl

The information contained herein is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any © 2010 KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG
particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no International”), a Swiss entity. Member firms of the
guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the KPMG network of independent firms are affiliated
future. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination with KPMG International. KPMG International provides
of the particular situation. no client services. No member firm has any authority
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the interviewees and survey respondents and do not to obligate or bind KPMG International or any other
necessarily represent the views and opinions of KPMG International or KPMG member firms. member firm vis-à-vis third parties, nor does KPMG
International have any such authority to obligate or
bind any member firm. All rights reserved.
KPMG and the KPMG logo are registered trademarks
of KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG
International”), a Swiss entity.
Designed and produced by KPMG LLP (UK)’s
Design Services
Publication name: Powering ahead: 2010
Publication number: RRD-194525
Publication date: May 2010
Printed on recycled material.

Powering ahead 2010

More Related Content

Viewers also liked (8)

Similar to Powering ahead 2010 (20)

More from Adolfo Blanco Sarto (20)

Recently uploaded (20)

Powering ahead 2010