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Preliminary Project Results-Ahmadi

M
Mahdi Ahmadi

This document summarizes preliminary results from modeling simulations of ozone control strategies for the Dallas-Fort Worth area. Scenario A involved a 90% reduction in NOx emissions from nearby coal-fired power plants. This led to reductions in maximum 8-hour ozone concentrations at most monitoring sites of 4-7 ppb. Scenario B with a 100% reduction of NOx from coal plants saw even larger reductions of 3.5-7.7 ppb. Both scenarios decreased the relative response factors and projected ozone design values at most sites compared to the 2018 baseline modeling case.

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North Texas Ozone Attainment Initiative Project Preliminary Project Results Mahdi Ahmadi and Kuruvilla John Department of Mechanical and Energy Engineering November 6, 2015 1
Scope 1. Replicate DFW SIP runs on UNT Cluster -Base Case and FY18 Case simulations 2. Modeling simulation and analyses for DFW 3. Select major emissions source categories and evaluate its impact on the airshed 4. Evaluate effective ozone control strategies for DFW 2
Observed Ozone Concentration 3 TCEQ Report, Aug 2014 ( PROTOCOL FOR THE EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODELING OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA, P.46 )
Observed Ozone Concentration 4 TCEQ Report, Aug 2014 ( PROTOCOL FOR THE EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODELING OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA, P.47 )
Some Challenges 1. Model runs completed using initial runs from initial SIP submission – January 2015 files - Results from these are presented here 2. Simulation were re-run using revised SIP submission files – June 2015 files - Preliminary results provided here 3. Incomplete and sometimes erroneous file sets were uploaded online at the TCEQ repository (but TCEQ cooperated by providing additional information) 4. Sensitivity analyses files online produced mass resolution errors for precursor emissions in CAMx. 5
Methodology • Source sensitivity analyses methods – Brute force method (BFM): “Zero-Out” scenarios – Decoupled Direct Method (DDM and HDDM) much more efficient • Source apportionment methods – Ozone Source Apportionment Technology (OSAT) – Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Assessment (APCA): “The use of APCA instead of OSAT results in more ozone formation attributed to anthropogenic NOX sources and less ozone formation attributed to biogenic sources. APCA is not really a “source apportionment” technique because it expresses biases as to which sources should be implicated (i.e., those that are controllable), hence it is referred to as a “culpability assessment.”* 6 (*) Kwok, R., Baker, K., Napelenok, S., and Tonnesen., G., "Photochemical grid model implementation and application of VOC, NO x, and O 3 source apportionment." Geoscientific Model Development 8, no. 1 (2015): 99-114.
Methodology – In BFM, the objective is to determine the sensitivity of O3 to individual sources rather than identify the amount of O3 produced by particular emission sources. – BFM results “may be closer to the way the real atmosphere would respond if sufficient inputs are changed, but computing the response to each of the inputs could be very tedious”* • However, interpretation of the results must be done with understanding of the limitation of the method – Typically the BFM has been used as a reference to check whether the DDM has been properly implemented 7 (*) Arunachalam, S. "Peer Review of Source Apportionment Tools in CAMx and CMAQ." Institute for the Environment, UNC, Prepared for US EPA Contract No. EP-D-07-102 (2009).
Emission Control Scenarios (i) Scenario A – 90% NOx reduction from near coal-fired EGUs (ii) Scenario B – 100% NOx reduction from near coal-fired EGUs (iii) Scenario C – 90% NOx reduction from the Midlothian cement kilns (iv) Scenario D – 50% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources 8
9 NOX reduction from major point sources baseline (tpd) 2018 (tpd) 90% reduction (tpd) Big Brown 22.01 23.35 2.20 Limestone 38.97 43.04 3.90 Martin Lake 48.73 31.78 4.87 Monticello 40.67 30.06 4.07 Welsh 31.34 18.22 3.13
Emission Control Scenarios (v) Scenario E – 100% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources (vi) Scenario F – 100% NOx and VOC reduction at the Barnett Shale (area and point sources) and Haynesville (area sources) (vii) Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) – 90% NOx reduction at the coal-fired EGUs – 90% NOx reduction at the cement kilns – 50% NOX reduction at Barnett Shale large compressors 10
11 Results – Scenario A 90% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (Scenario – FY18) CAMS Scenario A 67-day episode Kaufman - C71 6.5 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 5.7 Arlington - C61 5.7 Grapevine - C70 5.7 Greenville - C1006 5.5 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 5.3 Itally/Ellis - C650 5.3 Midlothian OFW - C52 5.3 Rockwall - C69 4.9 Midlothian Tower - C94 4.9 Dallas North - C63 4.7 Denton Airport South - C56 4.6 Keller-C17 4.5 Frisco - C31 4.4 Cleburne Airport - C77 4.4 Granbury - C73 4.1 Pilot Point - C1032 4.0 Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 3.7 Parker County - C76 3.6 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 3.4
12 Results – Scenario A 90% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
13 Absolute maximum effect on 3x3 cells near the CAMS 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 5/30 5/31 6/1 6/2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 Max.8hrΔO3in3x3nearcells Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032 Results – Scenario A 90% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
14 Absolute maximum effect on 3x3 cells near the CAMS 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 9/10 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 Max.8hrΔO3in3x3nearcells Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032 Results – Scenario A 90% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
15 Change in Relative Response Factor (using the 10 highest days) and projected design value CAMS 2006 DVB (ppb) UNT Projection Scenario A FY18 RRF FY18 DVF Scenario RRF Scenario DVF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 89.33 0.8209 73.3 0.8080 72.2 Keller-C17 91.00 0.8169 74.3 0.8026 73.0 Frisco - C31 87.67 0.8266 72.5 0.8169 71.6 Midlothian OFW - C52 77.00 0.8255 63.6 0.8146 62.7 Denton Airport South - C56 93.33 0.8127 75.8 0.8012 74.8 Arlington - C61 83.33 0.8260 68.8 0.8130 67.7 Dallas North - C63 85.00 0.8365 71.1 0.8247 70.1 Rockwall - C69 77.67 0.8436 65.5 0.8324 64.7 Grapevine - C70 90.67 0.8196 74.3 0.8052 73.0 Kaufman - C71 74.67 0.8522 63.6 0.8359 62.4 Granbury - C73 83.00 0.8146 67.6 0.8015 66.5 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 93.33 0.8061 75.2 0.7969 74.4 Parker County - C76 87.67 0.8250 72.3 0.8139 71.4 Cleburne Airport - C77 85.00 0.8187 69.6 0.7980 67.8 Midlothian Tower - C94 80.50 0.8246 66.4 0.8127 65.4 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 81.67 0.8294 67.7 0.8152 66.6 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 85.00 0.8322 70.7 0.8184 69.6 Greenville - C1006 75.00 0.8335 62.5 0.8265 62.0 Pilot Point - C1032 81.00 0.8140 65.9 0.8050 65.2 Results – Scenario A 90% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
16 Effect of the scenario on daily RRF -0.12 -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 5/30 5/31 6/1 6/2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 ChangeinRRF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032 Results – Scenario A 90% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
17 Effect of the scenario on daily RRF -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 9/10 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 ChangeinRRF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032 Results – Scenario A 90% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
18 Results – Scenario A Total population (Census 2010 data) 0.5 * Scaled population (from 1-10) + 0.5* Scaled ozone impact (from 1-10) Episodic maximum impact (daily maximum 8h)
19 Results – Scenario A Population weighted ozone impact (50-50%)
20 Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (Scenario – FY18) CAMS Scenario B 67-day episode Kaufman - C71 7.7 Rockwall - C69 6.5 Greenville - C1006 6.5 Itally/Ellis - C650 6.3 Arlington - C61 6.1 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 5.6 Midlothian OFW - C52 5.5 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 5.3 Midlothian Tower - C94 5.2 Cleburne Airport - C77 4.9 Granbury - C73 4.9 Grapevine - C70 4.8 Frisco - C31 4.6 Dallas North - C63 4.4 Parker County - C76 4.1 Pilot Point - C1032 4.1 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 4.0 Denton Airport South - C56 3.9 Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 3.8 Keller-C17 3.5 Results – Scenario B 100% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
21 Results – Scenario B 100% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
22 Results – Scenario B 100% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
23 Change in Relative Response Factor (using the 10 highest days) and projected design value CAMS 2006 DVB (ppb) UNT Projection Scenario B FY18 RRF FY18 DVF Scenario RRF Scenario DVF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 89.33 0.8209 73.3 0.8120 72.5 Keller-C17 91.00 0.8169 74.3 0.8072 73.5 Frisco - C31 87.67 0.8266 72.5 0.8177 71.7 Midlothian OFW - C52 77.00 0.8255 63.6 0.8114 62.5 Denton Airport South - C56 93.33 0.8127 75.8 0.8029 74.9 Arlington - C61 83.33 0.8260 68.8 0.8163 68.0 Dallas North - C63 85.00 0.8365 71.1 0.8278 70.4 Rockwall - C69 77.67 0.8436 65.5 0.8327 64.7 Grapevine - C70 90.67 0.8196 74.3 0.8111 73.5 Kaufman - C71 74.67 0.8522 63.6 0.8298 62.0 Granbury - C73 83.00 0.8146 67.6 0.8021 66.6 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 93.33 0.8061 75.2 0.8002 74.7 Parker County - C76 87.67 0.8250 72.3 0.8180 71.7 Cleburne Airport - C77 85.00 0.8187 69.6 0.7996 68.0 Midlothian Tower - C94 80.50 0.8246 66.4 0.8089 65.1 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 81.67 0.8294 67.7 0.8190 66.9 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 85.00 0.8322 70.7 0.8223 69.9 Greenville - C1006 75.00 0.8335 62.5 0.8199 61.5 Pilot Point - C1032 81.00 0.8140 65.9 0.8069 65.4 Results – Scenario B 100% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
24 Results – Scenario C 90% NOx reduction from the Midlothian cement kilns Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (Scenario – FY18) CAMS Scenario C 67-day episode Midlothian OFW - C52 4.5 Cleburne Airport - C77 4.0 Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 3.3 Arlington - C61 3.3 Midlothian Tower - C94 3.2 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 3.1 Granbury - C73 2.9 Kaufman - C71 2.8 Greenville - C1006 2.7 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 2.5 Dallas North - C63 2.5 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 2.5 Frisco - C31 2.4 Keller-C17 2.4 Parker County - C76 2.3 Grapevine - C70 2.3 Denton Airport South - C56 2.3 Rockwall - C69 2.1 Itally/Ellis - C650 2.1 Pilot Point - C1032 1.9
25 Results – Scenario C 90% NOx reduction from the Midlothian cement kilns
26 Change in Relative Response Factor (using the 10 highest days) and projected design value CAMS 2006 DVB (ppb) UNT Projection Scenario C FY18 RRF FY18 DVF Scenario RRF Scenario DVF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 89.33 0.8209 73.3 0.8109 72.4 Keller-C17 91.00 0.8169 74.3 0.8090 73.6 Frisco - C31 87.67 0.8266 72.5 0.8225 72.1 Midlothian OFW - C52 77.00 0.8255 63.6 0.8203 63.2 Denton Airport South - C56 93.33 0.8127 75.8 0.8083 75.4 Arlington - C61 83.33 0.8260 68.8 0.8168 68.1 Dallas North - C63 85.00 0.8365 71.1 0.8308 70.6 Rockwall - C69 77.67 0.8436 65.5 0.8410 65.3 Grapevine - C70 90.67 0.8196 74.3 0.8111 73.5 Kaufman - C71 74.67 0.8522 63.6 0.8567 64.0 Granbury - C73 83.00 0.8146 67.6 0.8100 67.2 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 93.33 0.8061 75.2 0.7977 74.5 Parker County - C76 87.67 0.8250 72.3 0.8166 71.6 Cleburne Airport - C77 85.00 0.8187 69.6 0.8118 69.0 Midlothian Tower - C94 80.50 0.8246 66.4 0.8200 66.0 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 81.67 0.8294 67.7 0.8248 67.4 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 85.00 0.8322 70.7 0.8277 70.4 Greenville - C1006 75.00 0.8335 62.5 0.8397 63.0 Pilot Point - C1032 81.00 0.8140 65.9 0.8096 65.6 Results – Scenario C 90% NOx reduction from the Midlothian cement kilns
27 Results – Scenario D 50% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (Scenario – FY18) CAMS Scenario D 67-day episode Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 2.2 Keller-C17 1.5 Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 1.5 Parker County - C76 1.2 Midlothian OFW - C52 1.1 Midlothian Tower - C94 1.1 Cleburne Airport - C77 1.1 Denton Airport South - C56 1.0 Granbury - C73 0.8 Itally/Ellis - C650 0.8 Grapevine - C70 0.7 Arlington - C61 0.7 Frisco - C31 0.6 Pilot Point - C1032 0.5 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 0.4 Dallas North - C63 0.4 Kaufman - C71 0.3 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 0.3 Greenville - C1006 0.3 Rockwall - C69 0.2
28 Results – Scenario D 50% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources
29 Change in Relative Response Factor (using the 10 highest days) and projected design value CAMS 2006 DVB (ppb) UNT Projection Scenario D FY18 RRF FY18 DVF Scenario RRFScenario DVF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 89.33 0.8209 73.3 0.8189 73.2 Keller-C17 91.00 0.8169 74.3 0.8159 74.2 Frisco - C31 87.67 0.8266 72.5 0.8261 72.4 Midlothian OFW - C52 77.00 0.8255 63.6 0.8244 63.5 Denton Airport South - C56 93.33 0.8127 75.8 0.8114 75.7 Arlington - C61 83.33 0.8260 68.8 0.8246 68.7 Dallas North - C63 85.00 0.8365 71.1 0.8360 71.1 Rockwall - C69 77.67 0.8436 65.5 0.8432 65.5 Grapevine - C70 90.67 0.8196 74.3 0.8185 74.2 Kaufman - C71 74.67 0.8522 63.6 0.8516 63.6 Granbury - C73 83.00 0.8146 67.6 0.8109 67.3 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 93.33 0.8061 75.2 0.8054 75.2 Parker County - C76 87.67 0.8250 72.3 0.8230 72.2 Cleburne Airport - C77 85.00 0.8187 69.6 0.8163 69.4 Midlothian Tower - C94 80.50 0.8246 66.4 0.8237 66.3 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 81.67 0.8294 67.7 0.8289 67.7 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 85.00 0.8322 70.7 0.8313 70.7 Greenville - C1006 75.00 0.8335 62.5 0.8332 62.5 Pilot Point - C1032 81.00 0.8140 65.9 0.8129 65.8 Results – Scenario D 50% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources
30 Results – Scenario E 100% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (Scenario – FY18) CAMS Scenario E 67-day episode Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 3.3 Keller-C17 2.2 Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 2.2 Parker County - C76 1.8 Denton Airport South - C56 1.4 Midlothian OFW - C52 1.4 Midlothian Tower - C94 1.4 Cleburne Airport - C77 1.3 Granbury - C73 1.0 Grapevine - C70 1.0 Itally/Ellis - C650 1.0 Frisco - C31 0.8 Arlington - C61 0.8 Pilot Point - C1032 0.7 Dallas North - C63 0.6 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 0.5 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 0.4 Kaufman - C71 0.4 Greenville - C1006 0.4 Rockwall - C69 0.3
31 Results – Scenario E 100% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources
32 Change in Relative Response Factor (using the 10 highest days) and projected design value CAMS 2006 DVB (ppb) UNT Projection Scenario E FY18 RRF FY18 DVF Scenario RRF Scenario DVF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 89.33 0.8209 73.3 0.8185 73.1 Keller-C17 91.00 0.8169 74.3 0.8157 74.2 Frisco - C31 87.67 0.8266 72.5 0.8260 72.4 Midlothian OFW - C52 77.00 0.8255 63.6 0.8242 63.5 Denton Airport South - C56 93.33 0.8127 75.8 0.8112 75.7 Arlington - C61 83.33 0.8260 68.8 0.8242 68.7 Dallas North - C63 85.00 0.8365 71.1 0.8359 71.1 Rockwall - C69 77.67 0.8436 65.5 0.8431 65.5 Grapevine - C70 90.67 0.8196 74.3 0.8182 74.2 Kaufman - C71 74.67 0.8522 63.6 0.8515 63.6 Granbury - C73 83.00 0.8146 67.6 0.8100 67.2 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 93.33 0.8061 75.2 0.8054 75.2 Parker County - C76 87.67 0.8250 72.3 0.8226 72.1 Cleburne Airport - C77 85.00 0.8187 69.6 0.8157 69.3 Midlothian Tower - C94 80.50 0.8246 66.4 0.8236 66.3 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 81.67 0.8294 67.7 0.8287 67.7 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 85.00 0.8322 70.7 0.8311 70.6 Greenville - C1006 75.00 0.8335 62.5 0.8331 62.5 Pilot Point - C1032 81.00 0.8140 65.9 0.8126 65.8 Results – Scenario E 100% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources
33 Results – Scenario F 100% NOx and VOC reduction at the Barnett Shale (area and point sources) and Haynesville (area sources) Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (Scenario – FY18) CAMS Scenario F 67-day episode Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 5.4 Keller-C17 5.3 Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 4.9 Denton Airport South - C56 3.6 Parker County - C76 3.3 Grapevine - C70 3.2 Cleburne Airport - C77 2.3 Granbury - C73 2.2 Midlothian OFW - C52 2.2 Midlothian Tower - C94 2.2 Frisco - C31 1.8 Pilot Point - C1032 1.7 Itally/Ellis - C650 1.6 Arlington - C61 1.6 Dallas North - C63 1.6 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 1.2 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 1.2 Greenville - C1006 1.2 Kaufman - C71 0.9 Rockwall - C69 0.8
34 Results – Scenario F 100% NOx and VOC reduction at the Barnett Shale (area and point sources) and Haynesville (area sources)
35 Change in Relative Response Factor (using the 10 highest days) and projected design value CAMS 2006 DVB (ppb) UNT Projection Scenario F FY18 RRF FY18 DVF Scenario RRF Scenario DVF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 89.33 0.8209 73.3 0.8137 72.7 Keller-C17 91.00 0.8169 74.3 0.8124 73.9 Frisco - C31 87.67 0.8266 72.5 0.8243 72.3 Midlothian OFW - C52 77.00 0.8255 63.6 0.8223 63.3 Denton Airport South - C56 93.33 0.8127 75.8 0.8081 75.4 Arlington - C61 83.33 0.8260 68.8 0.8203 68.4 Dallas North - C63 85.00 0.8365 71.1 0.8337 70.9 Rockwall - C69 77.67 0.8436 65.5 0.8420 65.4 Grapevine - C70 90.67 0.8196 74.3 0.8153 73.9 Kaufman - C71 74.67 0.8522 63.6 0.8492 63.4 Granbury - C73 83.00 0.8146 67.6 0.8038 66.7 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 93.33 0.8061 75.2 0.8047 75.1 Parker County - C76 87.67 0.8250 72.3 0.8184 71.8 Cleburne Airport - C77 85.00 0.8187 69.6 0.8118 69.0 Midlothian Tower - C94 80.50 0.8246 66.4 0.8214 66.1 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 81.67 0.8294 67.7 0.8267 67.5 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 85.00 0.8322 70.7 0.8293 70.5 Greenville - C1006 75.00 0.8335 62.5 0.8303 62.3 Pilot Point - C1032 81.00 0.8140 65.9 0.8104 65.6 Results – Scenario F 100% NOx and VOC reduction at the Barnett Shale (area and point sources) and Haynesville (area sources)
36 Results – Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (Scenario – FY18) CAMS Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) 67-day episode Kaufman - C71 6.8 Arlington - C61 6.1 Midlothian OFW - C52 5.6 Greenville - C1006 5.5 Itally/Ellis - C650 5.5 Rockwall - C69 5.1 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 5.0 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 4.7 Midlothian Tower - C94 4.6 Cleburne Airport - C77 4.3 Grapevine - C70 4.3 Granbury - C73 4.3 Frisco - C31 4.1 Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 4.0 Dallas North - C63 4.0 Parker County - C76 3.8 Pilot Point - C1032 3.6 Denton Airport South - C56 3.3 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 3.3 Keller-C17 3.1
37 Results – Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3)
38 Results – Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) Absolute maximum effect on 3x3 cells near the CAMS 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 5/30 5/31 6/1 6/2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 Max.8hrΔO3in3x3nearcells Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032
39 Absolute maximum effect on 3x3 cells near the CAMS Results – Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 9/10 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 Max.8hrΔO3in3x3nearcells Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032
40 Results – Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) Change in Relative Response Factor (using the 10 highest days) and projected design value CAMS 2006 DVB (ppb) UNT Projection Scenario G FY18 RRF FY18 DVF Scenario RRF Scenario DVF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 89.33 0.8209 73.3 0.8067 72.1 Keller-C17 91.00 0.8169 74.3 0.8050 73.3 Frisco - C31 87.67 0.8266 72.5 0.8159 71.5 Midlothian OFW - C52 77.00 0.8255 63.6 0.8038 61.9 Denton Airport South - C56 93.33 0.8127 75.8 0.8009 74.8 Arlington - C61 83.33 0.8260 68.8 0.8114 67.6 Dallas North - C63 85.00 0.8365 71.1 0.8268 70.3 Rockwall - C69 77.67 0.8436 65.5 0.8320 64.6 Grapevine - C70 90.67 0.8196 74.3 0.8086 73.3 Kaufman - C71 74.67 0.8522 63.6 0.8297 62.0 Granbury - C73 83.00 0.8146 67.6 0.7971 66.2 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 93.33 0.8061 75.2 0.7960 74.3 Parker County - C76 87.67 0.8250 72.3 0.8136 71.3 Cleburne Airport - C77 85.00 0.8187 69.6 0.7938 67.5 Midlothian Tower - C94 80.50 0.8246 66.4 0.8031 64.7 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 81.67 0.8294 67.7 0.8173 66.7 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 85.00 0.8322 70.7 0.8207 69.8 Greenville - C1006 75.00 0.8335 62.5 0.8204 61.5 Pilot Point - C1032 81.00 0.8140 65.9 0.8038 65.1
41 Results – Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) Effect of the scenario on daily RRF -0.12 -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 5/30 5/31 6/1 6/2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 ChangeinRRF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032
42 Results – Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) Effect of the scenario on daily RRF -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 9/10 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 ChangeinRRF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032
43 January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model TCEQ uploaded the latest version of modeling files and a revision to SIP plan on May 15, 2015. Major differences from the last update in January 6, 2015 are: – NOX and VOC are slightly increased in the DFW emission inventory – RRFs are calculated using latest EPA guidance
44 TCEQ Report (Dec 10, 2014): Revisions to the State of Texas Air Quality Implementation Plan for the Control of Ozone Air Pollution (p.ES-1) TCEQ Report (May 15, 2015): Revisions to the State of Texas Air Quality Implementation Plan for the Control of Ozone Air Pollution (p.ES-1) January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model +5% +3% +1% +2%
45 TCEQ Report (Dec 10, 2014): Revisions to the State of Texas Air Quality Implementation Plan for the Control of Ozone Air Pollution (p.3-67) January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model
46 TCEQ Report (May 15, 2015): Revisions to the State of Texas Air Quality Implementation Plan for the Control of Ozone Air Pollution (p.3-66) January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model
47 TCEQ Report (May 15, 2015): Revisions to the State of Texas Air Quality Implementation Plan for the Control of Ozone Air Pollution (p.3-69) January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model
48 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.79 0.8 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.86 DentonAirportSouth-C56 EagleMountainLake-C75 GrapevineFairway-C70 Keller-C17 FortWorthNorthwest-C13 Frisco-C31 DallasNorth#2-C63 ParkerCounty-C76 DallasExecutiveAirport-C402 CleburneAirport-C77 ArlingtonMunicipalAirport-C61 DallasHintonStreet-C401 Granbury-C73 MidlothianTower-C94 PilotPoint-C1032 RockwallHeath-C69 MidlothianOFW-C52 Greenville-C1006 Kaufman-C71 RelativeResponseFactor(RRF) January Report (old method) May Report (old method) May Report (new method) January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model
49 January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model Baseline 2006 Cases bl06r3b (May 2015 Model) – bl06reg3 (Jan 2015 Model) Maximum episodic daily max 8hr mean O3 difference – 67 days
50 January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model Future Year 2018 Cases FY18c0h (May 2015 Model) – FY18cs00g (Jan 2015 Model) Maximum episodic daily max 8hr mean O3 difference – 67 days
51 UNT Preliminary Results with Revised SIP submission files • A test case: cs00g (Jan 2015 files) vs c0h (May 2015 files) • Cumulative Scenario (v12): – 100% NOx reduction at the coal plants – 90% NOx reduction at the cement kilns – 100% NOX reduction at Barnett Shale large compressors
52 CAMS v12.cs00g 67-day episode Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 4.5 Keller-C17 3.5 Frisco - C31 4.6 Midlothian OFW - C52 5.8 Denton Airport South - C56 3.8 Arlington - C61 6.8 Dallas North - C63 4.4 Rockwall - C69 6.5 Grapevine - C70 4.8 Kaufman - C71 7.7 Granbury - C73 4.8 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 4.0 Parker County - C76 4.5 Cleburne Airport - C77 4.9 Midlothian Tower - C94 5.3 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 5.6 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 5.3 Itally/Ellis - C650 6.3 Greenville - C1006 6.5 Pilot Point - C1032 4.2 CAMS V12.c0h 67-day episode Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 4.6 Keller-C17 3.6 Frisco - C31 4.6 Midlothian OFW - C52 5.9 Denton Airport South - C56 3.9 Arlington - C61 6.9 Dallas North - C63 4.5 Rockwall - C69 6.5 Grapevine - C70 4.9 Kaufman - C71 7.7 Granbury - C73 4.8 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 4.1 Parker County - C76 4.5 Cleburne Airport - C77 5.0 Midlothian Tower - C94 5.3 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 5.6 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 5.3 Itally/Ellis - C650 6.3 Greenville - C1006 6.5 Pilot Point - C1032 4.2 UNT Preliminary Results cs00g Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (FY18 - Scenario) c0h
53 UNT Preliminary Results CAMS v12.cs00g 67-day episode Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 0.821 → 0.805 Keller-C17 0.817 → 0.804 Frisco - C31 0.827 → 0.815 Midlothian OFW - C52 0.825 → 0.802 Denton Airport South - C56 0.813 → 0.799 Arlington - C61 0.826 → 0.810 Dallas North - C63 0.837 → 0.826 Rockwall - C69 0.844 → 0.831 Grapevine - C70 0.820 → 0.807 Kaufman - C71 0.852 → 0.827 Granbury - C73 0.815 → 0.795 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 0.806 → 0.795 Parker County - C76 0.825 → 0.812 Cleburne Airport - C77 0.819 → 0.791 Midlothian Tower - C94 0.825 → 0.801 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 0.829 → 0.816 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 0.832 → 0.819 Itally/Ellis - C650 0.824 → 0.805 Greenville - C1006 0.834 → 0.819 Pilot Point - C1032 0.814 → 0.803 cs00g c0h Change in Relative Response Factor (FY18 → Scenario) using the 10 highest days CAMS v12.c0h 67-day episode Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 0.813 → 0.796 Keller-C17 0.808 → 0.795 Frisco - C31 0.826 → 0.814 Midlothian OFW - C52 0.831 → 0.807 Denton Airport South - C56 0.811 → 0.798 Arlington - C61 0.821 → 0.805 Dallas North - C63 0.833 → 0.822 Rockwall - C69 0.850 → 0.838 Grapevine - C70 0.813 → 0.801 Kaufman - C71 0.840 → 0.816 Granbury - C73 0.811 → 0.791 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 0.802 → 0.791 Parker County - C76 0.821 → 0.809 Cleburne Airport - C77 0.808 → 0.780 Midlothian Tower - C94 0.830 → 0.807 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 0.823 → 0.809 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 0.832 → 0.819 Itally/Ellis - C650 0.806 → 0.787 Greenville - C1006 0.828 → 0.813 Pilot Point - C1032 0.811 → 0.800
54 Concluding Thoughts • We are currently re-running the entire set of simulations with the revised modeling files. • The 2011 episodes would have provided a more recent modeling scenario for the SIP submission. • Currently, there are no cost-benefit analysis conducted on the efficacy of each control strategies.
55 Concluding Thoughts • The model seems to respond favorably to more NOx controls in the region. • Unsure whether the VOC profiles are accurately capturing the recent emission surges in the region. • Additional point and area controls are necessary for the area to achieve the attainment goals for DFW. These may get an additional 1-2 ppb reduction on the future design value. • Upwind coal-fired power plants and major point and area emission sources in the vicinity provide additional opportunities for further emission reduction.
56 THANK YOU!! Contact: Prof. Kuruvilla John Department of Mechanical and Energy Engineering University of North Texas +1 (940) 565-4302 | Kuruvilla.John@unt.edu Mahdi Ahmadi Department of Mechanical and Energy Engineering University of North Texas Mahdi.Ahmadi@unt.edu The Project is Funded by Downwinders at Risk Education Fun

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Preliminary Project Results-Ahmadi

  • 1. North Texas Ozone Attainment Initiative Project Preliminary Project Results Mahdi Ahmadi and Kuruvilla John Department of Mechanical and Energy Engineering November 6, 2015 1
  • 2. Scope 1. Replicate DFW SIP runs on UNT Cluster -Base Case and FY18 Case simulations 2. Modeling simulation and analyses for DFW 3. Select major emissions source categories and evaluate its impact on the airshed 4. Evaluate effective ozone control strategies for DFW 2
  • 3. Observed Ozone Concentration 3 TCEQ Report, Aug 2014 ( PROTOCOL FOR THE EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODELING OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA, P.46 )
  • 4. Observed Ozone Concentration 4 TCEQ Report, Aug 2014 ( PROTOCOL FOR THE EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODELING OF THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA, P.47 )
  • 5. Some Challenges 1. Model runs completed using initial runs from initial SIP submission – January 2015 files - Results from these are presented here 2. Simulation were re-run using revised SIP submission files – June 2015 files - Preliminary results provided here 3. Incomplete and sometimes erroneous file sets were uploaded online at the TCEQ repository (but TCEQ cooperated by providing additional information) 4. Sensitivity analyses files online produced mass resolution errors for precursor emissions in CAMx. 5
  • 6. Methodology • Source sensitivity analyses methods – Brute force method (BFM): “Zero-Out” scenarios – Decoupled Direct Method (DDM and HDDM) much more efficient • Source apportionment methods – Ozone Source Apportionment Technology (OSAT) – Anthropogenic Precursor Culpability Assessment (APCA): “The use of APCA instead of OSAT results in more ozone formation attributed to anthropogenic NOX sources and less ozone formation attributed to biogenic sources. APCA is not really a “source apportionment” technique because it expresses biases as to which sources should be implicated (i.e., those that are controllable), hence it is referred to as a “culpability assessment.”* 6 (*) Kwok, R., Baker, K., Napelenok, S., and Tonnesen., G., "Photochemical grid model implementation and application of VOC, NO x, and O 3 source apportionment." Geoscientific Model Development 8, no. 1 (2015): 99-114.
  • 7. Methodology – In BFM, the objective is to determine the sensitivity of O3 to individual sources rather than identify the amount of O3 produced by particular emission sources. – BFM results “may be closer to the way the real atmosphere would respond if sufficient inputs are changed, but computing the response to each of the inputs could be very tedious”* • However, interpretation of the results must be done with understanding of the limitation of the method – Typically the BFM has been used as a reference to check whether the DDM has been properly implemented 7 (*) Arunachalam, S. "Peer Review of Source Apportionment Tools in CAMx and CMAQ." Institute for the Environment, UNC, Prepared for US EPA Contract No. EP-D-07-102 (2009).
  • 8. Emission Control Scenarios (i) Scenario A – 90% NOx reduction from near coal-fired EGUs (ii) Scenario B – 100% NOx reduction from near coal-fired EGUs (iii) Scenario C – 90% NOx reduction from the Midlothian cement kilns (iv) Scenario D – 50% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources 8
  • 9. 9 NOX reduction from major point sources baseline (tpd) 2018 (tpd) 90% reduction (tpd) Big Brown 22.01 23.35 2.20 Limestone 38.97 43.04 3.90 Martin Lake 48.73 31.78 4.87 Monticello 40.67 30.06 4.07 Welsh 31.34 18.22 3.13
  • 10. Emission Control Scenarios (v) Scenario E – 100% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources (vi) Scenario F – 100% NOx and VOC reduction at the Barnett Shale (area and point sources) and Haynesville (area sources) (vii) Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) – 90% NOx reduction at the coal-fired EGUs – 90% NOx reduction at the cement kilns – 50% NOX reduction at Barnett Shale large compressors 10
  • 11. 11 Results – Scenario A 90% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (Scenario – FY18) CAMS Scenario A 67-day episode Kaufman - C71 6.5 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 5.7 Arlington - C61 5.7 Grapevine - C70 5.7 Greenville - C1006 5.5 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 5.3 Itally/Ellis - C650 5.3 Midlothian OFW - C52 5.3 Rockwall - C69 4.9 Midlothian Tower - C94 4.9 Dallas North - C63 4.7 Denton Airport South - C56 4.6 Keller-C17 4.5 Frisco - C31 4.4 Cleburne Airport - C77 4.4 Granbury - C73 4.1 Pilot Point - C1032 4.0 Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 3.7 Parker County - C76 3.6 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 3.4
  • 12. 12 Results – Scenario A 90% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
  • 13. 13 Absolute maximum effect on 3x3 cells near the CAMS 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 5/30 5/31 6/1 6/2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 Max.8hrΔO3in3x3nearcells Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032 Results – Scenario A 90% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
  • 14. 14 Absolute maximum effect on 3x3 cells near the CAMS 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 9/10 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 Max.8hrΔO3in3x3nearcells Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032 Results – Scenario A 90% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
  • 15. 15 Change in Relative Response Factor (using the 10 highest days) and projected design value CAMS 2006 DVB (ppb) UNT Projection Scenario A FY18 RRF FY18 DVF Scenario RRF Scenario DVF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 89.33 0.8209 73.3 0.8080 72.2 Keller-C17 91.00 0.8169 74.3 0.8026 73.0 Frisco - C31 87.67 0.8266 72.5 0.8169 71.6 Midlothian OFW - C52 77.00 0.8255 63.6 0.8146 62.7 Denton Airport South - C56 93.33 0.8127 75.8 0.8012 74.8 Arlington - C61 83.33 0.8260 68.8 0.8130 67.7 Dallas North - C63 85.00 0.8365 71.1 0.8247 70.1 Rockwall - C69 77.67 0.8436 65.5 0.8324 64.7 Grapevine - C70 90.67 0.8196 74.3 0.8052 73.0 Kaufman - C71 74.67 0.8522 63.6 0.8359 62.4 Granbury - C73 83.00 0.8146 67.6 0.8015 66.5 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 93.33 0.8061 75.2 0.7969 74.4 Parker County - C76 87.67 0.8250 72.3 0.8139 71.4 Cleburne Airport - C77 85.00 0.8187 69.6 0.7980 67.8 Midlothian Tower - C94 80.50 0.8246 66.4 0.8127 65.4 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 81.67 0.8294 67.7 0.8152 66.6 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 85.00 0.8322 70.7 0.8184 69.6 Greenville - C1006 75.00 0.8335 62.5 0.8265 62.0 Pilot Point - C1032 81.00 0.8140 65.9 0.8050 65.2 Results – Scenario A 90% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
  • 16. 16 Effect of the scenario on daily RRF -0.12 -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 5/30 5/31 6/1 6/2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 ChangeinRRF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032 Results – Scenario A 90% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
  • 17. 17 Effect of the scenario on daily RRF -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 9/10 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 ChangeinRRF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032 Results – Scenario A 90% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
  • 18. 18 Results – Scenario A Total population (Census 2010 data) 0.5 * Scaled population (from 1-10) + 0.5* Scaled ozone impact (from 1-10) Episodic maximum impact (daily maximum 8h)
  • 19. 19 Results – Scenario A Population weighted ozone impact (50-50%)
  • 20. 20 Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (Scenario – FY18) CAMS Scenario B 67-day episode Kaufman - C71 7.7 Rockwall - C69 6.5 Greenville - C1006 6.5 Itally/Ellis - C650 6.3 Arlington - C61 6.1 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 5.6 Midlothian OFW - C52 5.5 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 5.3 Midlothian Tower - C94 5.2 Cleburne Airport - C77 4.9 Granbury - C73 4.9 Grapevine - C70 4.8 Frisco - C31 4.6 Dallas North - C63 4.4 Parker County - C76 4.1 Pilot Point - C1032 4.1 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 4.0 Denton Airport South - C56 3.9 Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 3.8 Keller-C17 3.5 Results – Scenario B 100% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
  • 21. 21 Results – Scenario B 100% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
  • 22. 22 Results – Scenario B 100% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
  • 23. 23 Change in Relative Response Factor (using the 10 highest days) and projected design value CAMS 2006 DVB (ppb) UNT Projection Scenario B FY18 RRF FY18 DVF Scenario RRF Scenario DVF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 89.33 0.8209 73.3 0.8120 72.5 Keller-C17 91.00 0.8169 74.3 0.8072 73.5 Frisco - C31 87.67 0.8266 72.5 0.8177 71.7 Midlothian OFW - C52 77.00 0.8255 63.6 0.8114 62.5 Denton Airport South - C56 93.33 0.8127 75.8 0.8029 74.9 Arlington - C61 83.33 0.8260 68.8 0.8163 68.0 Dallas North - C63 85.00 0.8365 71.1 0.8278 70.4 Rockwall - C69 77.67 0.8436 65.5 0.8327 64.7 Grapevine - C70 90.67 0.8196 74.3 0.8111 73.5 Kaufman - C71 74.67 0.8522 63.6 0.8298 62.0 Granbury - C73 83.00 0.8146 67.6 0.8021 66.6 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 93.33 0.8061 75.2 0.8002 74.7 Parker County - C76 87.67 0.8250 72.3 0.8180 71.7 Cleburne Airport - C77 85.00 0.8187 69.6 0.7996 68.0 Midlothian Tower - C94 80.50 0.8246 66.4 0.8089 65.1 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 81.67 0.8294 67.7 0.8190 66.9 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 85.00 0.8322 70.7 0.8223 69.9 Greenville - C1006 75.00 0.8335 62.5 0.8199 61.5 Pilot Point - C1032 81.00 0.8140 65.9 0.8069 65.4 Results – Scenario B 100% NOx reduction from the coal-fired EGUs
  • 24. 24 Results – Scenario C 90% NOx reduction from the Midlothian cement kilns Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (Scenario – FY18) CAMS Scenario C 67-day episode Midlothian OFW - C52 4.5 Cleburne Airport - C77 4.0 Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 3.3 Arlington - C61 3.3 Midlothian Tower - C94 3.2 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 3.1 Granbury - C73 2.9 Kaufman - C71 2.8 Greenville - C1006 2.7 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 2.5 Dallas North - C63 2.5 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 2.5 Frisco - C31 2.4 Keller-C17 2.4 Parker County - C76 2.3 Grapevine - C70 2.3 Denton Airport South - C56 2.3 Rockwall - C69 2.1 Itally/Ellis - C650 2.1 Pilot Point - C1032 1.9
  • 25. 25 Results – Scenario C 90% NOx reduction from the Midlothian cement kilns
  • 26. 26 Change in Relative Response Factor (using the 10 highest days) and projected design value CAMS 2006 DVB (ppb) UNT Projection Scenario C FY18 RRF FY18 DVF Scenario RRF Scenario DVF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 89.33 0.8209 73.3 0.8109 72.4 Keller-C17 91.00 0.8169 74.3 0.8090 73.6 Frisco - C31 87.67 0.8266 72.5 0.8225 72.1 Midlothian OFW - C52 77.00 0.8255 63.6 0.8203 63.2 Denton Airport South - C56 93.33 0.8127 75.8 0.8083 75.4 Arlington - C61 83.33 0.8260 68.8 0.8168 68.1 Dallas North - C63 85.00 0.8365 71.1 0.8308 70.6 Rockwall - C69 77.67 0.8436 65.5 0.8410 65.3 Grapevine - C70 90.67 0.8196 74.3 0.8111 73.5 Kaufman - C71 74.67 0.8522 63.6 0.8567 64.0 Granbury - C73 83.00 0.8146 67.6 0.8100 67.2 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 93.33 0.8061 75.2 0.7977 74.5 Parker County - C76 87.67 0.8250 72.3 0.8166 71.6 Cleburne Airport - C77 85.00 0.8187 69.6 0.8118 69.0 Midlothian Tower - C94 80.50 0.8246 66.4 0.8200 66.0 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 81.67 0.8294 67.7 0.8248 67.4 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 85.00 0.8322 70.7 0.8277 70.4 Greenville - C1006 75.00 0.8335 62.5 0.8397 63.0 Pilot Point - C1032 81.00 0.8140 65.9 0.8096 65.6 Results – Scenario C 90% NOx reduction from the Midlothian cement kilns
  • 27. 27 Results – Scenario D 50% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (Scenario – FY18) CAMS Scenario D 67-day episode Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 2.2 Keller-C17 1.5 Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 1.5 Parker County - C76 1.2 Midlothian OFW - C52 1.1 Midlothian Tower - C94 1.1 Cleburne Airport - C77 1.1 Denton Airport South - C56 1.0 Granbury - C73 0.8 Itally/Ellis - C650 0.8 Grapevine - C70 0.7 Arlington - C61 0.7 Frisco - C31 0.6 Pilot Point - C1032 0.5 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 0.4 Dallas North - C63 0.4 Kaufman - C71 0.3 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 0.3 Greenville - C1006 0.3 Rockwall - C69 0.2
  • 28. 28 Results – Scenario D 50% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources
  • 29. 29 Change in Relative Response Factor (using the 10 highest days) and projected design value CAMS 2006 DVB (ppb) UNT Projection Scenario D FY18 RRF FY18 DVF Scenario RRFScenario DVF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 89.33 0.8209 73.3 0.8189 73.2 Keller-C17 91.00 0.8169 74.3 0.8159 74.2 Frisco - C31 87.67 0.8266 72.5 0.8261 72.4 Midlothian OFW - C52 77.00 0.8255 63.6 0.8244 63.5 Denton Airport South - C56 93.33 0.8127 75.8 0.8114 75.7 Arlington - C61 83.33 0.8260 68.8 0.8246 68.7 Dallas North - C63 85.00 0.8365 71.1 0.8360 71.1 Rockwall - C69 77.67 0.8436 65.5 0.8432 65.5 Grapevine - C70 90.67 0.8196 74.3 0.8185 74.2 Kaufman - C71 74.67 0.8522 63.6 0.8516 63.6 Granbury - C73 83.00 0.8146 67.6 0.8109 67.3 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 93.33 0.8061 75.2 0.8054 75.2 Parker County - C76 87.67 0.8250 72.3 0.8230 72.2 Cleburne Airport - C77 85.00 0.8187 69.6 0.8163 69.4 Midlothian Tower - C94 80.50 0.8246 66.4 0.8237 66.3 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 81.67 0.8294 67.7 0.8289 67.7 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 85.00 0.8322 70.7 0.8313 70.7 Greenville - C1006 75.00 0.8335 62.5 0.8332 62.5 Pilot Point - C1032 81.00 0.8140 65.9 0.8129 65.8 Results – Scenario D 50% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources
  • 30. 30 Results – Scenario E 100% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (Scenario – FY18) CAMS Scenario E 67-day episode Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 3.3 Keller-C17 2.2 Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 2.2 Parker County - C76 1.8 Denton Airport South - C56 1.4 Midlothian OFW - C52 1.4 Midlothian Tower - C94 1.4 Cleburne Airport - C77 1.3 Granbury - C73 1.0 Grapevine - C70 1.0 Itally/Ellis - C650 1.0 Frisco - C31 0.8 Arlington - C61 0.8 Pilot Point - C1032 0.7 Dallas North - C63 0.6 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 0.5 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 0.4 Kaufman - C71 0.4 Greenville - C1006 0.4 Rockwall - C69 0.3
  • 31. 31 Results – Scenario E 100% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources
  • 32. 32 Change in Relative Response Factor (using the 10 highest days) and projected design value CAMS 2006 DVB (ppb) UNT Projection Scenario E FY18 RRF FY18 DVF Scenario RRF Scenario DVF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 89.33 0.8209 73.3 0.8185 73.1 Keller-C17 91.00 0.8169 74.3 0.8157 74.2 Frisco - C31 87.67 0.8266 72.5 0.8260 72.4 Midlothian OFW - C52 77.00 0.8255 63.6 0.8242 63.5 Denton Airport South - C56 93.33 0.8127 75.8 0.8112 75.7 Arlington - C61 83.33 0.8260 68.8 0.8242 68.7 Dallas North - C63 85.00 0.8365 71.1 0.8359 71.1 Rockwall - C69 77.67 0.8436 65.5 0.8431 65.5 Grapevine - C70 90.67 0.8196 74.3 0.8182 74.2 Kaufman - C71 74.67 0.8522 63.6 0.8515 63.6 Granbury - C73 83.00 0.8146 67.6 0.8100 67.2 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 93.33 0.8061 75.2 0.8054 75.2 Parker County - C76 87.67 0.8250 72.3 0.8226 72.1 Cleburne Airport - C77 85.00 0.8187 69.6 0.8157 69.3 Midlothian Tower - C94 80.50 0.8246 66.4 0.8236 66.3 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 81.67 0.8294 67.7 0.8287 67.7 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 85.00 0.8322 70.7 0.8311 70.6 Greenville - C1006 75.00 0.8335 62.5 0.8331 62.5 Pilot Point - C1032 81.00 0.8140 65.9 0.8126 65.8 Results – Scenario E 100% NOx reduction from the Barnett Shale point sources
  • 33. 33 Results – Scenario F 100% NOx and VOC reduction at the Barnett Shale (area and point sources) and Haynesville (area sources) Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (Scenario – FY18) CAMS Scenario F 67-day episode Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 5.4 Keller-C17 5.3 Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 4.9 Denton Airport South - C56 3.6 Parker County - C76 3.3 Grapevine - C70 3.2 Cleburne Airport - C77 2.3 Granbury - C73 2.2 Midlothian OFW - C52 2.2 Midlothian Tower - C94 2.2 Frisco - C31 1.8 Pilot Point - C1032 1.7 Itally/Ellis - C650 1.6 Arlington - C61 1.6 Dallas North - C63 1.6 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 1.2 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 1.2 Greenville - C1006 1.2 Kaufman - C71 0.9 Rockwall - C69 0.8
  • 34. 34 Results – Scenario F 100% NOx and VOC reduction at the Barnett Shale (area and point sources) and Haynesville (area sources)
  • 35. 35 Change in Relative Response Factor (using the 10 highest days) and projected design value CAMS 2006 DVB (ppb) UNT Projection Scenario F FY18 RRF FY18 DVF Scenario RRF Scenario DVF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 89.33 0.8209 73.3 0.8137 72.7 Keller-C17 91.00 0.8169 74.3 0.8124 73.9 Frisco - C31 87.67 0.8266 72.5 0.8243 72.3 Midlothian OFW - C52 77.00 0.8255 63.6 0.8223 63.3 Denton Airport South - C56 93.33 0.8127 75.8 0.8081 75.4 Arlington - C61 83.33 0.8260 68.8 0.8203 68.4 Dallas North - C63 85.00 0.8365 71.1 0.8337 70.9 Rockwall - C69 77.67 0.8436 65.5 0.8420 65.4 Grapevine - C70 90.67 0.8196 74.3 0.8153 73.9 Kaufman - C71 74.67 0.8522 63.6 0.8492 63.4 Granbury - C73 83.00 0.8146 67.6 0.8038 66.7 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 93.33 0.8061 75.2 0.8047 75.1 Parker County - C76 87.67 0.8250 72.3 0.8184 71.8 Cleburne Airport - C77 85.00 0.8187 69.6 0.8118 69.0 Midlothian Tower - C94 80.50 0.8246 66.4 0.8214 66.1 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 81.67 0.8294 67.7 0.8267 67.5 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 85.00 0.8322 70.7 0.8293 70.5 Greenville - C1006 75.00 0.8335 62.5 0.8303 62.3 Pilot Point - C1032 81.00 0.8140 65.9 0.8104 65.6 Results – Scenario F 100% NOx and VOC reduction at the Barnett Shale (area and point sources) and Haynesville (area sources)
  • 36. 36 Results – Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (Scenario – FY18) CAMS Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) 67-day episode Kaufman - C71 6.8 Arlington - C61 6.1 Midlothian OFW - C52 5.6 Greenville - C1006 5.5 Itally/Ellis - C650 5.5 Rockwall - C69 5.1 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 5.0 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 4.7 Midlothian Tower - C94 4.6 Cleburne Airport - C77 4.3 Grapevine - C70 4.3 Granbury - C73 4.3 Frisco - C31 4.1 Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 4.0 Dallas North - C63 4.0 Parker County - C76 3.8 Pilot Point - C1032 3.6 Denton Airport South - C56 3.3 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 3.3 Keller-C17 3.1
  • 37. 37 Results – Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3)
  • 38. 38 Results – Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) Absolute maximum effect on 3x3 cells near the CAMS 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 5/30 5/31 6/1 6/2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 Max.8hrΔO3in3x3nearcells Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032
  • 39. 39 Absolute maximum effect on 3x3 cells near the CAMS Results – Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 9/10 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 Max.8hrΔO3in3x3nearcells Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032
  • 40. 40 Results – Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) Change in Relative Response Factor (using the 10 highest days) and projected design value CAMS 2006 DVB (ppb) UNT Projection Scenario G FY18 RRF FY18 DVF Scenario RRF Scenario DVF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 89.33 0.8209 73.3 0.8067 72.1 Keller-C17 91.00 0.8169 74.3 0.8050 73.3 Frisco - C31 87.67 0.8266 72.5 0.8159 71.5 Midlothian OFW - C52 77.00 0.8255 63.6 0.8038 61.9 Denton Airport South - C56 93.33 0.8127 75.8 0.8009 74.8 Arlington - C61 83.33 0.8260 68.8 0.8114 67.6 Dallas North - C63 85.00 0.8365 71.1 0.8268 70.3 Rockwall - C69 77.67 0.8436 65.5 0.8320 64.6 Grapevine - C70 90.67 0.8196 74.3 0.8086 73.3 Kaufman - C71 74.67 0.8522 63.6 0.8297 62.0 Granbury - C73 83.00 0.8146 67.6 0.7971 66.2 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 93.33 0.8061 75.2 0.7960 74.3 Parker County - C76 87.67 0.8250 72.3 0.8136 71.3 Cleburne Airport - C77 85.00 0.8187 69.6 0.7938 67.5 Midlothian Tower - C94 80.50 0.8246 66.4 0.8031 64.7 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 81.67 0.8294 67.7 0.8173 66.7 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 85.00 0.8322 70.7 0.8207 69.8 Greenville - C1006 75.00 0.8335 62.5 0.8204 61.5 Pilot Point - C1032 81.00 0.8140 65.9 0.8038 65.1
  • 41. 41 Results – Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) Effect of the scenario on daily RRF -0.12 -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 5/30 5/31 6/1 6/2 6/3 6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/10 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/24 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 7/1 7/2 ChangeinRRF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032
  • 42. 42 Results – Scenario G (Cumulative Scenario #3) Effect of the scenario on daily RRF -0.10 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 8/12 8/13 8/14 8/15 8/16 8/17 8/18 8/19 8/20 8/21 8/22 8/23 8/24 8/25 8/26 8/27 8/28 8/29 8/30 8/31 9/1 9/2 9/3 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 9/10 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/15 ChangeinRRF Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 Keller-C17 Frisco - C31 Midlothian OFW - C52 Denton Airport South - C56 Arlington - C61 Dallas North - C63 Rockwall - C69 Grapevine - C70 Kaufman - C71 Granbury - C73 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 Parker County - C76 Cleburne Airport - C77 Midlothian Tower - C94 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 Itally/Ellis - C650 Greenville - C1006 Pilot Point - C1032
  • 43. 43 January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model TCEQ uploaded the latest version of modeling files and a revision to SIP plan on May 15, 2015. Major differences from the last update in January 6, 2015 are: – NOX and VOC are slightly increased in the DFW emission inventory – RRFs are calculated using latest EPA guidance
  • 44. 44 TCEQ Report (Dec 10, 2014): Revisions to the State of Texas Air Quality Implementation Plan for the Control of Ozone Air Pollution (p.ES-1) TCEQ Report (May 15, 2015): Revisions to the State of Texas Air Quality Implementation Plan for the Control of Ozone Air Pollution (p.ES-1) January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model +5% +3% +1% +2%
  • 45. 45 TCEQ Report (Dec 10, 2014): Revisions to the State of Texas Air Quality Implementation Plan for the Control of Ozone Air Pollution (p.3-67) January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model
  • 46. 46 TCEQ Report (May 15, 2015): Revisions to the State of Texas Air Quality Implementation Plan for the Control of Ozone Air Pollution (p.3-66) January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model
  • 47. 47 TCEQ Report (May 15, 2015): Revisions to the State of Texas Air Quality Implementation Plan for the Control of Ozone Air Pollution (p.3-69) January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model
  • 49. 49 January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model Baseline 2006 Cases bl06r3b (May 2015 Model) – bl06reg3 (Jan 2015 Model) Maximum episodic daily max 8hr mean O3 difference – 67 days
  • 50. 50 January 2015 vs. May 2015 Model Future Year 2018 Cases FY18c0h (May 2015 Model) – FY18cs00g (Jan 2015 Model) Maximum episodic daily max 8hr mean O3 difference – 67 days
  • 51. 51 UNT Preliminary Results with Revised SIP submission files • A test case: cs00g (Jan 2015 files) vs c0h (May 2015 files) • Cumulative Scenario (v12): – 100% NOx reduction at the coal plants – 90% NOx reduction at the cement kilns – 100% NOX reduction at Barnett Shale large compressors
  • 52. 52 CAMS v12.cs00g 67-day episode Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 4.5 Keller-C17 3.5 Frisco - C31 4.6 Midlothian OFW - C52 5.8 Denton Airport South - C56 3.8 Arlington - C61 6.8 Dallas North - C63 4.4 Rockwall - C69 6.5 Grapevine - C70 4.8 Kaufman - C71 7.7 Granbury - C73 4.8 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 4.0 Parker County - C76 4.5 Cleburne Airport - C77 4.9 Midlothian Tower - C94 5.3 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 5.6 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 5.3 Itally/Ellis - C650 6.3 Greenville - C1006 6.5 Pilot Point - C1032 4.2 CAMS V12.c0h 67-day episode Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 4.6 Keller-C17 3.6 Frisco - C31 4.6 Midlothian OFW - C52 5.9 Denton Airport South - C56 3.9 Arlington - C61 6.9 Dallas North - C63 4.5 Rockwall - C69 6.5 Grapevine - C70 4.9 Kaufman - C71 7.7 Granbury - C73 4.8 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 4.1 Parker County - C76 4.5 Cleburne Airport - C77 5.0 Midlothian Tower - C94 5.3 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 5.6 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 5.3 Itally/Ellis - C650 6.3 Greenville - C1006 6.5 Pilot Point - C1032 4.2 UNT Preliminary Results cs00g Maximum absolute difference of 8hr-mean O3 predicted in 3x3 cells near CAMS (FY18 - Scenario) c0h
  • 53. 53 UNT Preliminary Results CAMS v12.cs00g 67-day episode Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 0.821 → 0.805 Keller-C17 0.817 → 0.804 Frisco - C31 0.827 → 0.815 Midlothian OFW - C52 0.825 → 0.802 Denton Airport South - C56 0.813 → 0.799 Arlington - C61 0.826 → 0.810 Dallas North - C63 0.837 → 0.826 Rockwall - C69 0.844 → 0.831 Grapevine - C70 0.820 → 0.807 Kaufman - C71 0.852 → 0.827 Granbury - C73 0.815 → 0.795 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 0.806 → 0.795 Parker County - C76 0.825 → 0.812 Cleburne Airport - C77 0.819 → 0.791 Midlothian Tower - C94 0.825 → 0.801 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 0.829 → 0.816 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 0.832 → 0.819 Itally/Ellis - C650 0.824 → 0.805 Greenville - C1006 0.834 → 0.819 Pilot Point - C1032 0.814 → 0.803 cs00g c0h Change in Relative Response Factor (FY18 → Scenario) using the 10 highest days CAMS v12.c0h 67-day episode Ft. Worth Northwest-C13 0.813 → 0.796 Keller-C17 0.808 → 0.795 Frisco - C31 0.826 → 0.814 Midlothian OFW - C52 0.831 → 0.807 Denton Airport South - C56 0.811 → 0.798 Arlington - C61 0.821 → 0.805 Dallas North - C63 0.833 → 0.822 Rockwall - C69 0.850 → 0.838 Grapevine - C70 0.813 → 0.801 Kaufman - C71 0.840 → 0.816 Granbury - C73 0.811 → 0.791 Eagle Mt. Lake - C75 0.802 → 0.791 Parker County - C76 0.821 → 0.809 Cleburne Airport - C77 0.808 → 0.780 Midlothian Tower - C94 0.830 → 0.807 Dallas Hinton St. - C401 0.823 → 0.809 Dallas Exec. Airport - C402 0.832 → 0.819 Itally/Ellis - C650 0.806 → 0.787 Greenville - C1006 0.828 → 0.813 Pilot Point - C1032 0.811 → 0.800
  • 54. 54 Concluding Thoughts • We are currently re-running the entire set of simulations with the revised modeling files. • The 2011 episodes would have provided a more recent modeling scenario for the SIP submission. • Currently, there are no cost-benefit analysis conducted on the efficacy of each control strategies.
  • 55. 55 Concluding Thoughts • The model seems to respond favorably to more NOx controls in the region. • Unsure whether the VOC profiles are accurately capturing the recent emission surges in the region. • Additional point and area controls are necessary for the area to achieve the attainment goals for DFW. These may get an additional 1-2 ppb reduction on the future design value. • Upwind coal-fired power plants and major point and area emission sources in the vicinity provide additional opportunities for further emission reduction.
  • 56. 56 THANK YOU!! Contact: Prof. Kuruvilla John Department of Mechanical and Energy Engineering University of North Texas +1 (940) 565-4302 | Kuruvilla.John@unt.edu Mahdi Ahmadi Department of Mechanical and Energy Engineering University of North Texas Mahdi.Ahmadi@unt.edu The Project is Funded by Downwinders at Risk Education Fun