Global Trade Patterns, Competitiveness, and Growth Outlook
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The document discusses global trade patterns, competitiveness, and growth outlook for Africa, highlighting the integration of African economies into world trade and regional economic disparities. Key issues include a growing agricultural deficit, limited product diversification, and shifts in export dynamics. Projections indicate increased agricultural trade for Africa between 2013 and 2030, with a notable rise in exports of cash crops and imports of various food products.
![Evolution of African Countries’
Global Market Share of Agricultural Products, 1995-2007.
• [Vertical axis shows percent change in world market shares]
• Source: BACI and authors’ calculation, 2014
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Domestic Performance (competitivness) Geographical Specialization Sectoral Specialization](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/presentationatoraddisoctober2014-141009143831-conversion-gate02/85/Global-Trade-Patterns-Competitiveness-and-Growth-Outlook-11-320.jpg)
Global Trade Patterns, Competitiveness, and Growth Outlook
- 1. GLOBAL TRADE PATTERNS, COMPETITIVENESS, AND GROWTH OUTLOOK Antoine Bouët – IFPRI and University of Bordeaux Lauren Deason – IFPRI David Laborde - IFPRI Addis Abbaba, October, 10-11 2014
- 2. Global Trade Patterns, Competitiveness and Growth Outlook • Integration of Africa in world trade • Multilateralism • Regionalism • Preferences • African Competitiveness ? • Evolution of African shares in world trade • Growing deficit in agriculture • African trade dependent on OECD countries • Limited Product diversification • Participation to GVC Page 2
- 3. Evolution of the Africa’s Share of World Exports of Goods and Services, 1980-2012 • Source: UNCTAD and authors’ calculation, 2014 Page 3 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% Africa Africa, South Africa excluded Subsaharan Africa 1980-89 1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2012
- 4. Evolution of African Regional Economic Community Shares of World Exports of Goods and Services, 1980-2012 • Source: UNCTAD and authors’ calculation, 2014 Page 4 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00% Community of Sahel-Saharan States Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa Economic Community of West African States Southern African Customs Union
- 5. Africa’s Agricultural Exports and Imports, in USD and Calories contents, 2001-2011 • Source: Comtrade and authors’ calculation, 2014 Page 5 10E12 Kcal Billion USD (current USD) As % of global trade, calories contents As % of global trade, values Export Import Export Import Export Import Export Import 2011 7.93 32.45 40.8 77.4 2.21 10.27 3.26 6.30 2010 7.63 32.35 37.6 50.1 2.19 10.07 3.65 4.99 2008 6.20 26.93 30.7 51.2 1.76 8.76 2.88 4.79 2009 6.86 25.62 33.7 45.0 2.10 8.40 3.71 5.05 2007 5.62 26.92 23.5 35.9 1.79 9.18 2.70 4.09 2006 5.49 24.86 21.3 24.8 1.85 9.27 3.10 3.59 2005 5.84 18.95 19.0 19.8 2.11 6.67 3.06 3.12 2003 4.49 18.08 15.6 17.3 1.66 7.60 2.98 3.27 2004 4.52 16.26 17.4 18.4 1.70 6.76 2.90 3.02 2002 3.96 17.01 9.5 14.3 1.57 7.43 2.15 3.19 2001 4.07 12.62 10.7 11.5 1.69 5.95 2.57 2.75
- 6. Destination of Africa’s Agricultural Exports • Source: BACI and authors’ calculation, 2014 Page 6 AfricanExports Africa Asia Europe LAC NorthAmerica Oceania Dollars(value) 1990-1995 7.99% 16.79% 67.32% 0.61% 6.95% 0.34% 2002-2007 15.15% 14.86% 62.51% 0.53% 6.10% 0.84% kCal 1990-1995 13.80% 26.20% 49.96% 2.99% 6.59% 0.46% 2002-2007 31.41% 29.21% 34.03% 0.92% 4.19% 0.23%
- 7. Origin of Africa’s Agricultural Imports • Source: BACI and authors’ calculation, 2014 Page 7 AfricanImports Africa Asia Europe LAC NorthAmerica Oceania Dollars(value) 1990-1995 6.77% 17.26% 37.90% 9.96% 24.79% 3.31% 2002-2007 12.39% 19.81% 35.23% 15.97% 13.68% 2.93% kCal 1990-1995 3.09% 14.23% 23.81% 10.44% 44.81% 3.62% 2002-2007 7.05% 20.38% 27.06% 19.45% 21.63% 4.43%
- 8. Global Trade Patterns, Competitiveness and Growth Outlook • Limited Product Diversification (Kose and Riezman, 2001; Songwe and Winkler, 2012) • However within the agricultural sector, increasing product diversification • 2000: the top 10 HS6 agricultural products exported by Africa = 51% of total • coffee, sugar, tea, cotton, wine and grapes, oranges, and cut flowers • 2005-2010: the top 10 HS6 agricultural products exported by Africa = 40% of total • cocoa, coffee, cotton, cashew nuts, oranges, tobacco, tea, and cut flowers Page 8
- 9. Global Trade Patterns, Competitiveness and Growth Outlook • Constant concentration on the import side • Over time 10 products = 70% of calorie content and 46% of the value of agricultural imports • wheat (durum and soft), • sugar (refined), • rice (broken, semi-milled), • corn, • milk powder, • sunflower oil (replaced by soybean oil), • soybean meal (for livestock consumption) Page 9
- 10. Global Trade Patterns, Competitiveness and Growth Outlook • Agricultural Trade Competitiveness • Decomposition of African countries’ global market share over the period 1995-2007 • i) geographical specialization effect, • ii) sectoral specialization effect, • iii) a domestic performance effect (or competitiveness effect). • Methodology from Cheptea, Fontagné and Zignago (2014) Page 10
- 11. Evolution of African Countries’ Global Market Share of Agricultural Products, 1995-2007. • [Vertical axis shows percent change in world market shares] • Source: BACI and authors’ calculation, 2014 Page 11 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Domestic Performance (competitivness) Geographical Specialization Sectoral Specialization
- 12. Global Trade Patterns, Competitiveness and Growth Outlook • Outlook for Africa’s Trade Growth: 2013 to 2030 • Evaluation based on MIRAGRODEP • Multi-country multi-sector CGEM • Perfect competition • Recursive dynamics • Exogenous changes in active population • GDP projection • Baseline : 2013 to 2030 • Scenario: reduction by 50% of worldwide agricultural import duties Page 12
- 13. Agricultural Imports per Capita – Index, base year 2014=100 Source: MIRAGRODEP simulation results, 2014 Page 13 100% 110% 120% 130% 140% 150% 160% 170% 180% 190% 200% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Agricultural imports per Capita - Index AFRICA CEMAC ECOWAS SACU UMA ASIA EUROPE
- 14. Product Breakdown of Africa’s Per Capita Agricultural Net Exports, 2007 constant US$ Source: MIRAGRODEP simulation results, 2014 Page 14 -40.00 -30.00 -20.00 -10.00 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030 Cash Crops Vegetables & Fruits Fibers Oilseeds Fish Products Live Cattle Meat, white Meat, red Sugar Beverage_Tobacco Processed Food Dairy Products Vegetable Oil Cereals
- 15. African Agri-food Exports– % Increase Btwn 2013 and 2030, Export Value – 2007 constant US$ • Source: MIRAGRODEP simulation results, 2014 Page 15 % increase between 2013 and 2030 (value in constant dollars Rest of the WORLD AFRICA CEMAC COMESA ECOWAS SACU UMA AFRICA 118% CEMAC 80% 99% 67% 148% 80% 88% 75% COMESA 97% 136% 148% 146% 179% 116% 107% ECOWAS 97% 128% 80% 179% 136% 137% 90% SACU 91% 111% 88% 116% 137% 111% 105% UMA 86% 86% 75% 107% 90% 105% 77%
- 16. Effect of a Global 50% Tariff Reduction in African Agriculture, (% change Scen/baseline 2030) • Source: MIRAGRODEP simulation results, 2014 Page 16 Agrifood Value Added (%) Agricultural Exports (%) Agricultural Imports (%) UMA -0.3 16.2 16 ECOWAS -0.4 4 12.5 CEMAC -1.1 3.2 15 COMESA 0.1 7.3 16.2 SACU 1.8 9.9 12.1 Africa -0.3 8.6 14.5 America-Oceania 2 9.5 10.3 Asia -0.2 14.8 10.8 Europe -0.4 5.1 5.5
- 17. Global Trade Patterns, Competitiveness and Growth Outlook • Concluding remarks • Africa’s share of world ag. trade on an increasing trend since the early 2000s • But African agricultural deficit is increasing • In terms of nutritional content, imports of proteins have increased faster than imports of fats and kilocalories • Africa experienced a slight diversification in its agricultural exports since the 2000s Page 17
- 18. Global Trade Patterns, Competitiveness and Growth Outlook • Concluding remarks • Simulation results: • Between 2013 and 2030, Africa’s agricultural trade will continue to expand. • Increase of Afr. exports of cash crops, vegetable and fruits, and fibers, • Imports of cereals, meat and meat products, dairy products, processed food, and beverages and tobacco would also increase. Page 18
- 19. •Thank You!