Presentation N14
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The document summarizes Pakistan's existing and future power generation capacity and electricity demand. It finds that while generation capacity has increased over time, demand is growing faster. As a result, shortages are projected to persist through 2011 unless additional measures are taken. It proposes a Load Management Programme to reduce peak demand by 1500 MW through demand-side measures and system improvements. This would help bridge the projected supply-demand gaps in the near term.
Presentation N14
- 1. MAY 09, 2008 POWER SHORTAGE IN PAKISTAN AND SHORT TERMS SOLUTION TO AVOID LOADSHEDDING.
- 2. EXISTING GENERATING CAPACITY * Hydro availability based on last 5 years average ** Excludes 10% Forced Outages for GENCOs & 6.0% for IPPs & Rental Type of Generation Nameplate/Installed Capacity (MW) Derated/ Dependable Capacity (MW) Availability (MW) Summer Winter WAPDA Hydro 6444 6444 6250 2300* GENCOs 4840 3580 2780 3222** IPPs (incl Nuclear) 6115 5541 4950 5208** Rental 285 188 168 177** Total 17684 15753 14148 10907
- 3. Historical Demand (2002 – 2007) * WAPDA computed demand; without export to KESC ** Assuming 1% diversity between WAPDA & KESC Power Demands YEAR WAPDA * KESC COUNTRY ** MW G.R. MW G.R. MW G.R. 2001-02 10109 4.0% 1885 1.3% 11875 3.6% 2002-03 10481 3.7% 1973 4.7% 12244 3.1% 2003-04 11078 5.7% 2073 10.0% 13021 6.4% 2004-05 12035 8.6% 2197 6.0% 14091 8.2% 2005-06 13212 9.8% 2223 1.2% 15282 8.5% 2006-07 15138 14.6% 2349 5.7% 17314 13.3%
- 4. Historical Surplus/Deficit (2002 – 2007) YEAR WAPDA SYSTEM Installed Capacity Firm Capability Computed Peak Demand Surplus/ Shortfall 2001-02 15819 10894 10459 435 2002-03 15819 10958 11044 -86 2003-04 17299 11834 11598 236 2004-05 17350 12792 12595 197 2005-06 17400 12600 13847 -1247 2006-07 17366 13292 15838 -2546
- 5. Month-wise surplus/deficit (MW) -3837 9845 13682 Mar-08 -3151 9104 12255 Jan-08 -2475 9679 12154 Dec-07 -811 11590 12401 Nov-07 355 14092 13737 Oct-07 Month Peak Demand Corresponding Capability Surplus/deficit Jan-07 12093 11039 -1054 Feb-07 11590 12552 962 Mar-07 12311 11171 -1140 Apr-07 13843 13002 -841 May-07 14650 13567 -1083 Jun-07 15838 13292 -2546 Jul-07 15941 13706 -2235 Aug-07 15862 13666 -2196 Sep-7 16056 13644 -2412 Feb-08 12123 10122 -2001 Apr-08 15124 11568 -3556
- 6. Demand & Hydro Capability in May (MW) 2007 vs 2008 -1646 -2118 -1746 -1674 -2195 -1742 -1959 -2093 Diff 5418 5588 5571 5473 5521 5358 5526 5502 2007 Hydro Capability 1596 1788 2168 1211 2325 2896 2010 1448 Diff 15305 15386 15838 14892 15042 15739 15857 15008 2008 Date Peak Demand 2007 2008 1 13560 3409 2 13847 3567 3 12843 3616 4 12717 3326 5 13681 3799 6 13670 3825 7 13598 3470 8 13709 3772
- 7. LOAD FORECAST Based on Regression Analysis (Revised April, 2008) * Base year figure without export to KESC Year MW G.R (%) 2006-07* 15138 2007-08 16484 8.9 2008-09 17868 8.4 2009-10 19352 8.3 A.C.G.R. (2006-2010) 8.5 2010-11 20874 7.9 2011-12 22460 7.6 2012-13 24126 7.4 2013-14 25919 7.4 2014-15 28029 8.1 A.C.G.R. (2010-2015) 7.7
- 8. FUTURE GENERATION PROJECTS* (2008-2011) *Based on WPPO information dated 25 April 2008 Fiscal Year Name of Project Type Installed Capacity (MW) Expected COD Capacity Added in each Year (MW) Total Installed Capacity (MW) Existing Capacity 17684 2007-08 Malakand-III HPP Public 81 May. 2008 141 17825 Rehab. of GENCO Plants Public 60 Jun. 2008 2008-09 Orient Thermal (Balloki) IPP 150 Jul. 2008 2029 19854 Attock Power Project IPP 165 Oct. 2008 Rental Plant at F/Abad IPP 150 Nov. 2008 Rental Plant at Guddu IPP 110 Nov. 2008 Rental Plant at Multan IPP 192 Dec. 2008 Rental Plant at Sahiwal IPP 150 Dec. 2008 Rehab. of GENCO Plants IPP 240 Dec. 2008 Rental Plant at Satiana Road IPP 200 Jan. 2009 Orient Thermal(Balloki) IPP 75 Jan. 2009
- 9. FUTURE GENERATION PROJECTS* (2008-2011) *Based on WPPO information dated 25 April 2008 IPP Public IPP Public Public IPP IPP Public Public IPP IPP IPP Type Jul. 2009 225 Muridke Power Project 22109 2255 Jul. 2009 130 Duber Khwar HPP 2009-10 Fiscal Year Name of Project Installed Capacity (MW) Expected COD Capacity Added in each Year (MW) Total Installed Capacity (MW) Rental Plant at Ludewala 200 Feb. 2009 Rental Plant at Nooriabad 100 Mar. 2009 Atlas Shirazi Project 225 Mar. 2009 Khan Khwar HPP 72 Apr. 2009 Fauji Mari Power Proj 202 Sep. 2009 F/Abad ICB Project 375 Nov. 2009 Dadu ICB Project 375 Nov. 2009 Nishat Power project 200 Dec. 2009 Jinnah Low Head Hydel 96 Feb. 2010 Sahiwal Power Project 225 Feb. 2010
- 10. FUTURE GENERATION PROJECTS* (2008-2011) *Based on WPPO information dated 25 April 2008 Jun. 2010 227 IPP Engro Power Project Fiscal Year Name of Project Type Installed Capacity (MW) Expected COD Capacity Added in each Year (MW) Total Installed Capacity (MW) Nishat Chunian Project IPP 200 Jun. 2010 2010-11 Allai Khwar HPP Public 121 Jul. 2010 4856 26965 C.C. at F/Abad Public 125 Nov. 2010 C.C. at Dadu Public 125 Nov. 2010 Nandipur Power project Public 425 Dec. 2010 Bhikki Power Project IPP 225 Dec. 2010 Western ElectricProject IPP 150 Dec. 2010 Green Power Project IPP 205 Dec. 2010 KAPCO Extension IPP 400 Dec. 2010 HUBCO Narowal IPP 225 Dec. 2010 Liberty Power IPP 200 Dec. 2010
- 11. FUTURE GENERATION PROJECTS* (2008-2011) *Based on WPPO information dated 25 April 2008 Dec. 2010 390 IPP PIE AmPower Project Fiscal Year Name of Project Type Installed Capacity (MW) Expected COD Capacity Added in each Year (MW) Total Installed Capacity (MW) Star Thermal Project IPP 134 Jan. 2011 CC at Chichoki Mallian Public 526 Mar. 2011 Bestway IPP 205 Mar. 2011 Guddu Steam Public 750 Apr. 2011 UCH-2 ICB Power Project IPP 450 Jun. 2011 Gulistan Project IPP 200 Jun. 2011
- 12. SUMMAY OF POWER SUPPLY & DEMAND POSITION (MW) *Actual figures up to April, 2008 **Based on average hydrology conditions & includes export to KESC Year Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 2007-08 -2235 -2196 -2412 355 -811 -2475 -3151 -2001 -3837 -3556 -3676 -3198 2008-09 -2884 -2714 -2749 -2780 -2945 -2779 -3028 -2791 -2819 -2824 -2777 -2780 2009-10 -2548 -2276 -2388 -2291 -2270 -2409 -2412 -2282 -2274 -2295 -2264 -2283 2010-11 -2207 -1919 -1598 -1329 -868 -859 -674 -885 -877 -871 -901 -888
- 13. Load Management Programme (LMP) By Reduction in Peak Load 1000 MW Reduction in industrial load (during peak hours) (400MW) Switching off alternate street light points (30 MW) Switching off Bill Boards (20 MW) Closure of Shopping Plazas by 8.00 P.M (300 MW) Staggering of Holidays (100 MW) TOD Meters for Tubewells (150 MW) By Additional Capacity & System Augmentation/Improvement 200 MW Addition of SPPs at 11 K.V or 132 KV (100 MW) Massive maintenance–Transmission & Distt. System (50 MW) System augmentation & up-gradation of distribution T/Fs (30 MW) Installation of 11KV Capacitors on 11KV Lines (20 MW) Energy Loss Reduction 300 MW Technical measures (150 MW) Theft reduction (150 MW) Total Target Saving 1500 MW