Presentation on Policy
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The document discusses early thoughts on the Roadmap 2050 for European energy policy. It outlines goals of abundant, affordable, and acceptable energy across Europe. It emphasizes that national energy policies can no longer be achieved without a European perspective. It also stresses the importance of completing the integration of European energy markets through regional market coupling. Major investments will be needed in infrastructure and innovation, potentially funded through existing funds or revenues from emissions trading schemes. The future fuel mix is expected to be low carbon but the specific path is still uncertain and will depend on factors like fuel prices, subsidies, climate policy, and public demand for renewables. Energy efficiency, especially in buildings, industry, and transport, will also be key.
Presentation on Policy
- 2. ROADMAP 2050 – EARLY THOUGHTS (1) Energy security as key driver. 2009 cuts an element. Abundant, affordable and acceptable energy as goal. “No national energy policy can (now) be achieved without a European perspective” Creating incentives in regulation via cross border allocation of costs and allow include costs linked to socio-economic criteria (!) “Proper infrastructure”. “Set a target date (2015) for ending the isolation of all Member States from the gas and power networks” Finalize market integration through regions, “market coupling”. Market to invest with last resort central funding of projects “where European interest lies but fail the market test”. “10 YEDP” to play a role (in European?) projects choice. Not choose projects, but set “method to choose”. However some corridors like Offshore Wind and connecting east Europe to West Europe in gas are still set. Page 2
- 3. ROADMAP 2050 – EARLY THOUGHTS (2) Where money comes from? “Maximize use of existing funds” or (for research to combat climate change) “use 50% of ETS revenues”. Innovation to energy: “few chosen large scale projects”; 4 grand examples: “1. smart grids. 2.New storage technology, 3. biofuels, 4. energy saving for cities”. “No national energy policy can (now) be achieved without a European perspective” “Renewables cross with decentral production is a must”. Push saving energy (target) via public procurement . Now only 10% of 20% achieved. Eco-design, energy labeling appliances and homes. Page 3
- 4. ROADMAP 2050 – ROAD IS BUMPY AND UNKNOWN Key Drivers: Eu, Other Regions, Global. Global CCS push (? Do not Climate accords forget Hydrogen as well ?). Global energy efficiency Infrastructure development Global renewable push Ff Nuclear renaissance (Global ) Price of fossils Public and economic demands change (power need, energy intensive industry changes; energy security; transport; competition; financing situation; solidarity; carbon pricing) Page 4
- 5. FUTURE FUEL MIX OF 2050 – WILL BE A KEY INVESTING ITEM. BUT ITS SET TO BE “LOW CARBON”. THE ROAD TO FUEL MIX AND ITSMILE“STONES” WILL BE MORE THE KEY POINT OF DISCUSSION. Drivers: Prices fuels Subsidies (Expectation of ) energy security Political decisions Extremely integrated internal market for energy Climate policy Public demand for renewables and (less) NIMBY http://www.roadmap2050.eu/attachments/files/Volume3_FullBook.pdf (Page # 139) Page 5
- 6. FUTURE FUEL MIX OF 2050 – WILL BE A KEY INVESTING ITEM. BUT ITS SET TO BE “LOW CARBON”. THE ROAD TO FUEL MIX AND ITS 3- YEARLY MILE“STONES” WILL BE MORE THE KEY POINT OF DISCUSSION. Which “low carbon” road to choose? • Energy efficiency OR • More gas OR • Innovation OR • FOSSIL with CCS OR • NUKE OR • ETS and energy taxes http://www.roadmap2050.eu/attachments/files/Volume3_FullBook.pdf (Page # 138) Page 6
- 7. ENERGY EFFICIENCY (WHAT ARE THE KEY IMPLICATIONS) Non-binding target of 20% How to achieve? Buildings = 40% consumption/36% Gr. http://www.nec.com/global/solutions/nsp/nxtcomm08/exhibits.html Emissions Industry = 30 to 60% (for power http://www.experientia.com/blog/uploads/2007/07/urban.jpg consumption) energy savings technology existing Transport = produces large part of Gr. Emissions Sources: EP push (15.12.2010) http://www.emea-solutions.com/aboutus.htm Page 7
- 8. ENERGY MARKET INTEGRITY PROPOSALS TARGET INSIDERS ACER Monitoring to prevent “manipulation” and “insider trading”. Regulation foreseen. 20 Platforms and 180 traders in EU affected according to Commission. A lot will depend on definitions of when advance knowledge significantly influences prices, and what is advance knowledge. http://rubbercat.net/archive/halloween2005/surprised_man.jpg Page 8
- 9. FRAMEWORK GUIDELINES POWER AND GAS INFLUENCE, IS ON THE MOVE TILL MEMBER-STATES UP TO 2014 VOTED ON CODES, BASED ON THE GUIDELINES. Important indication comes from the respective target model discussions, so-called AHAG in power and Target model in gas. http://image.spreadshirt.com/image-server/image/composition/2958155/view/1/producttypecolor/39/type/png/width/378/height/378/im-a-moving-target_design.png Page 9
- 10. OTHER MULTIPLE REGULATIONS DEVELOPMENTS DESERVE YOUR ATTENTION AS WELL IN 2011 ETS developments, to influence value of power plants investments Smart grid studies, to influence DSOs and developers. Power value Push for renewable de central competition to central power. Good for back up plants. Security of supply regulation roll-out will trigger investments additional investments in long term, subject to disputes on cost allocation value Gas Storage regulation might develop based on GGPSSO. In parallel national governments are anticipating EU policy and discuss national measures as well. These developments can again have influence on EU policy in 2011. Page 10
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