Presentation_icetracking
- 1. 1 Real-Time Monitoring and Integrated Forecasting of Arctic Ice Floes P. AnnoK. Soofi C. Yetsko D. Glover J. Santosuosso B. Cobb
- 2. 2 above the Arctic Circle • ~ 25% of world’s undiscovered reserves • no production to date in ice congested waters
- 3. 3 Limited Infrastructure emergency evacuation search & rescue firefighting towing salvage operations costly mobilization Dangerous Working Conditions low temperatures icing on equipment darkness moving ice on ocean surface the Arctic Challenge
- 4. 4 iceberg
- 6. 6 ice-hardened mobile drilling concepts
- 7. 7 ice floe Tracking & Forecasting move the rig
- 8. 8 ice floe Tracking & Forecasting stay put
- 9. 9 Arctic Cost Drivers & Projected Savings extended drilling season 1 well ↕ $300 MM savings ↕ 2 wells production platform construction mechanical design (max ice load) ↕ $1,000 MM savings ↕ ice management operations
- 10. 10 satellite imagery sonar radar video currents temps wind structural load cell data Continuous Ingestion Continuous Analytics Stream Computing for ice floe tracking
- 11. 11 ice movie 1 – Tracking & Forecasting km
- 12. 12 Project Objective Prototype automatic & continual tracking/forecasting of all individual ice floes Real-Time Analysis & Modeling Ice detection / classification from SAR Ice floe tracking from SAR Ice floe trajectory forecasting Trajectory uncertainty quantification Deliverable Real-time visualization of ice floe positions, tracks, & trajectory cone forecasts ice floe Tracking & Forecasting
- 15. 18 Forecasting Equations 2 2 2 conservation of linear momentum ( ) is velocity of the ice floe. is m ˆ+ wh ass of the ice floe, is area of the ice floe, ere is force o i . f ce add i w w w a a a w i w w d m m C A C unkno A mf d n t w m A v F V V k v V v v v v v F pack acting on floe, , are velocities of the water & air currents.w av v
- 16. 19 metocean Data Stream 0900 09 March 2011
- 17. 22 ice floe forecasting – Data Constraints km
- 18. 23 ice floe forecasting – Data Constraints & Solutions km
- 19. 24 Project Objective Prototype automatic & continual tracking/forecasting of all individual ice floes Real-Time Analysis & Modeling Ice detection / classification from SAR Ice floe tracking from SAR Ice floe trajectory forecasting Trajectory uncertainty quantification Deliverable Real-time visualization of ice floe positions, tracks, & trajectory cone forecasts ice floe Tracking & Forecasting
- 20. 25 ice movie 2 – Forecast Uncertainty Cones km
- 21. 26 a BiG Data problem volume, variety, velocity favors the Stream Computing paradigm real-time decision support natural, continuous data integration effective high-end analytics computationally feasible shifts burden to engineering of data acquisition systems near-real-time ice floe Tracking & Forecasting
- 22. 27 Real-Time Monitoring and Integrated Forecasting of Arctic Ice Floes P. AnnoK. Soofi C. Yetsko D. Glover J. Santosuosso B. Cobb