Tax Seminar 2013 - Outlook by Robert Prega
- 1. Slovakia Outlook 2013 Róbert Prega, Tatra banka Chief economist
- 2. Slovak economy - catching up regional peers GDP in PPS per capita (EU27=100) 85% 85% Czech rep. 80% 80% 75% Slovakia 75% Poland 70% 70% 65% 65% Hungary 60% 60% 55% 55% 50% 50% 45% 45% 40% 40% 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2 Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- 3. Economic environment - still not very supportive in the this year GDP growth% 6.0 4.0 1.8 2.0 0.5 1.5 0.0 -0.1 -2.0 -4.0 -6.0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013f 2015f Germany Eurozone 3 Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- 4. Expected improvement in H2 2013 Source: Raiffeisen RESEARCH 4
- 5. Medium-term growth prospect of the economy depends also on the government GDP growth % 12.0 10.5 10.0 8.0 8.3 6.7 6.0 5.8 4.4 5.1 3.2 3.5 4.0 4.6 4.8 3.5 2.0 2.4 2.5 1.4 0.9 0.0 0.0 -2.0 -4.0 -4.9 -6.0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 5 Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH
- 6. Strong contribution of automotive industry will decrease in the year Structure of GDP growth 8% 5.9% 6% 4.2% 3.4% 2.4% 0.9% 4% 5.5% 3.2% 2% 2.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.8% 0% 0.4% 0.2% -0.4% -2% -4.5% -4% -4.9% -6% 2 008 2 009 2 010 2 011 2 012 2 013 Automotive industry Rest of economy 6 Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH
- 7. Growth differential is narrowing... Growth differential SR versus Eurozone 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012e 2014f 7 Source: Eurostat, Raiffeisen RESEARCH
- 8. How strong is commitment of government to decrease the deficit? 60 9 54.9 55.8 56.0 8.0 7.7 52.2 8 50 43.3 7 41.0 40 6 35.4 4.9 4.6 5 30 27.8 4 20 2.9 3 2.4 2.1 1.9 2 10 1 0 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Public Debt Deficit as % of GDP 8 Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic, Ministry of Finance
- 9. High public debt - global problem Public debt % of GDP 250 200 150 % of GDP 100 50 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Eurozone USA Japan Slovak Republic 9 Source: Eurostat, OECD
- 10. Slower growth, lower inflation Key macroeconomic ndicators in 2013 versus 2012 16.0 13.8 14.1 14.0 12.0 2012 e 2013 f 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.6 4.0 3.6 2.9 2.4 2.2 2.0 0.9 0.6 -0.2 0.0 GDP CPI Employment Unemployment Deficit -2.0 10 Source: Statistical Office of the Slovak republic, Tatra banka RESEARCH
- 11. Summary • Eurozone debt crisis is not by far fixed and risk of another turmoil on the market is still very material • ECB will remain key stabilisation factor • Eurozone will be still on the verge of recession in H1 2013 with prospect of gradual recovery in H2 2013 and 2014 • Growth perspective for Slovak economy determined by Eurozone a economic policy of government in medium term 11
- 12. Thank you for attention. 12