Probability part 4
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Probability is a mathematical measure of how likely events are to occur. It can be expressed as a fraction, decimal, or percentage between 0 and 1. A probability experiment involves possible outcomes that make up a sample space. An event is a subset of outcomes. Theoretical probability calculates the likelihood of an event based on equally likely outcomes. Experimental probability is based on observed frequencies. Subjective probability relies on estimates rather than calculations. As experiments are repeated, experimental probability approaches theoretical probability due to the law of large numbers.
Probability part 4
- 2. Definitions Probability is the mathematics of chance. It tells us the relative frequency with which we can expect an event to occur The greater the probability the more likely the event will occur. It can be written as a fraction, decimal, percent, or ratio.
- 3. Definitions Certain Impossible .5 1 0 50/50 Probability is the numerical measure of the likelihood that the event will occur. Value is between 0 and 1. Sum of the probabilities of all events is 1.
- 4. Definitions A probability experiment is an action through which specific results (counts, measurements, or responses) are obtained. The result of a single trial in a probability experiment is an outcome. The set of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment is the sample space, denoted as S. e.g. All 6 faces of a die: S = { 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 }
- 5. Definitions Other Examples of Sample Spaces may include: Lists Tables Grids Venn Diagrams Tree Diagrams May use a combination of these Where appropriate always display your sample space
- 6. Definitions An event consists of one or more outcomes and is a subset of the sample space. Events are often represented by uppercase letters, such as A, B, or C. Notation: The probability that event E will occur is written P(E) and is read “the probability of event E.”
- 7. Definitions • The Probability of an Event, E: Consider a pair of Dice • Each of the Outcomes in the Sample Space are random and equally likely to occur. e.g. P( ) = (There are 2 ways to get one 6 and the other 4) P(E) = Number of Event Outcomes Total Number of Possible Outcomes in S 18 1 36 2
- 8. Definitions There are three types of probability 1. Theoretical Probability Theoretical probability is used when each outcome in a sample space is equally likely to occur. P(E) = Number of Event Outcomes Total Number of Possible Outcomes in S The Ultimate probability formula
- 9. Definitions There are three types of probability 2. Experimental Probability Experimental probability is based upon observations obtained from probability experiments. The experimental probability of an event E is the relative frequency of event E P(E) = Number of Event Occurrences Total Number of Observations
- 10. Definitions There are three types of probability 3. Subjective Probability Subjective probability is a probability measure resulting from intuition, educated guesses, and estimates. Therefore, there is no formula to calculate it. Usually found by consulting an expert.
- 11. Definitions Law of Large Numbers. As an experiment is repeated over and over, the experimental probability of an event approaches the theoretical probability of the event. The greater the number of trials the more likely the experimental probability of an event will equal its theoretical probability.
- 12. Complimentary Events The complement of event E is the set of all outcomes in a sample space that are not included in event E. The complement of event E is denoted by Properties of Probability: EorE )(1)( )(1)( 1)()( 1)(0 EPEP EPEP EPEP EP