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Project Management: A Managerial Approach, 9th
edition Instructor’s Resource Guide
Copyright ©2015 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Chapter 7 - 1
Chapter 7
Budgeting: Estimating Costs and Risks
CHAPTER OVERVIEW
Overview – This chapter describes the process of estimating and then assembling the
project budget. The budget is an important part of the planning process as it describes
the plan for allocating project resources. Once the budget is set, it is used as part of the
project control mechanism during execution.
7.1 Estimating Project Budgets – The budgeting process involves the forecasting of the
level and type of resources needed to complete the project. Many organizations will
have well worn (and reasonably accurate) methods for creating the initial project
estimate based on past experience. It is important to remember, however, that
because every project is unique the estimating process always has some level of
uncertainty associate with it. The PM must understand the organization’s accounting
practices to the extent that they are imposed on the project budgeting and control
process.
• Top-Down Budgeting – This is the technique of developing a budget by
comparing this project to past ones using the judgment and experience of top
and middle management. Typically an overall budget is assigned to the project to
be distributed to the individual tasks. If the projects being used for comparison
are similar enough, this process can result in a fairly accurate total number. The
process of distributing the total can create a lot of conflict among the
management team.
• Bottom-Up Budgeting – This is the process of developing budgets by asking the
people who will perform the individual tasks for their estimates. These individual
numbers are then rolled up to a summary for presentation to management. It’s
important in this process to follow a good WBS to ensure that no tasks are
overlooked. Unfortunately, this process can lead to game playing when
individuals pad their estimates in anticipation of management cuts.
• Work Element Costing – Using the bottom-up estimates, costs can be applied t o
each WBS element. These are typically calculated by taking the labor hour
estimate and “dollarizing” it using appropriate labor and overhead rates. To be
accurate, the estimator needs to understand the relationship between the labor
estimate and the actual number of hours that will be charged to the project
because of personal time and inefficiencies. A similar process must be used if
machine time or other resources are charged to the project.
• An Iterative Budgeting Process – Negotiation-in-Action – Typically the budgeting
process requires some negotiation between the subordinate, who develops the
WBS plans for the tasks for which he is responsible, and the supervisor who
reviews these plans. This is a time-consuming process. At the same time the PM

is negotiating with the several subordinates responsible for the pieces of the
PM’s WBS. It is worth emphasizing that ethics is just as important in negotiations
within an organization as in negotiations between an organization and an outside
party.
• Comments on the Budget Request Process – The bottom-up process differs from
the departmental budgeting process many organizations use. The primary
difference is that the departmental process typically comes with guidelines (either
formal or informal) on how much budget change is considerably acceptable.
• Cost Category Budgeting vs. Project/Activity Budgeting – Organizations may
budget and collect cost by functional activity. This makes it very difficult to
monitor project costs when they are distributed among a variety of different
organizational units. Project budgeting on the other hand collects project cost
using the WBS. This allows the PM to monitor cost in a manner that supports
overall project objectives.
7.2 Improving the Process of Cost Estimation – Estimates by nature are always wrong.
It’s important to build contingencies into the process or to account for uncertainty in
some other way. One way to do this is to use the PERT process of developing likely,
optimistic, and pessimistic estimates. In addition, the PM must understand whether
overhead cost is part of the estimate or not.
• Learning Curves – Studies and common sense have shown that as people
repeat a task they get better at it. This idea is formalized in the concept of the
learning curve, which states that each time the output doubles the worker hours
per unit decrease to a fixed percentage of their previous value. This effect is
important because the estimator must determine the impact learning had on past
projects (and their rates) and predict its impact on the one being estimated.
• A Special Case of Learning – Technological Shock – Projects that involve new
technologies or processes are very difficult to estimate because past
performance is not a useful guide. This is true not only because the rates are not
applicable, but because there is typically a lengthy startup process before steady
state performance is achieved.
• Other Factors – A number of other factors influence the project budget:
i) Changes in resource costs due to factors like inflation
ii) Waste and spoilage
iii) The fact that people, as resources are not freely interchangeable with each
other. The project may require five people, but if they are not the right people,
the number available is irrelevant.
iv) Projects cannot be put back on schedule by adding an infinite number of
resources. For intellectual projects like software development, the addition of
more people may actually slow the project down. Even for more mundane
tasks like painting a building there is a limit as to how many people can be
added to the project with benefit.
• On Making Better Estimates – Data can be collected on the quality of project
estimates by using statistical techniques. The estimate is compared to the actual,

and statistics like the Mean Absolute Ratio (MAR) and the Tracking Signal can
be calculated. These are all used to detect bias or nonrandom error in the
estimate.
7.3 Risk Estimation – Project aspects such as duration of activities, amount of resources
to utilize, value estimation etc., are very uncertain in a typical project. It is important
to manage this ambiguity to allow the project manager to make better decisions
when the situation arises. This is done through risk estimation and analysis, a
technique that describes uncertainty in a way, that it becomes possible, although
with a few reasonable assumptions, to make project activity decisions in an insightful
manner.
• General Simulation Analysis – A very useful tool to evaluate projects in
conceptual stage is simulation combined with sensitivity analysis. A through
estimation of the various tasks is made and the uncertainty associated with each
task is included. Simulation runs then show the likelihood of realizing various
levels of costs and benefits. Investigation of the model may also expose the
major sources of uncertainty.
TEACHING TIPS
Estimating and budgeting are dry subjects. Students who actually have to perform this
process on real projects, however, will be very interested in practical guidance beyond
the scope of this chapter. Here are some tips based on my experience.
The estimating process has to be defined in writing in advance of preparing the estimate.
The definition needs to include:
• Key project parameters and assumptions.
• Rules for how to allocate cost among different categories to ensure everything is
covered and nothing is duplicated. This is necessary even if there is a WBS, as
different people will interpret it differently.
• A sound method for identifying each “official” version of the estimate. It will
change and it’s easy to get confused as to what the current issued version is
versus the current working version.
• An airtight method of documenting the data and assumptions that serves as a
backup for each element of the estimate. The sound logic used during
development will quickly be forgotten. A year later someone will ask about a
number and nobody will know.
The estimating process for the next project must be considered in the collection of actual
data from the current project. This is particularly true if any kind of rate-based estimate is
used. As silly as it sounds, people discover that during a project they did not collect the
data necessary to develop or update rates. This discovery is usually made during the
estimating process for the next project when it is too late.

An excellent source of very practical advice on the estimating process is the NASA Cost
Estimating Handbook, available on the web at: http://ceh.nasa.gov/
PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN PRACTICE
Pathfinder Mission to Mars—on a Shoestring
Question 1: How did a change in philosophy make such a drastic difference in
project cost?
In 1976, cost was not a constraint, performance was. In the subsequent project,
performance was subordinated to the project’s cost goals.
Question 2: Why was the mission scope so limited? Why even spend the money
to go to Mars with such limited objectives?
Due to economic considerations and political realities, the mission was expected to hold
costs down to a minimum level while still achieving a level of performance that would be
a public relations success with at least some science accomplished. This project serves
as an example of why projects sometimes are selected for nonfinancial reasons. A low-
cost project was viewed as having the potential to demonstrate to the political
stakeholders that NASA could launch cost-effective space missions.
Question 3: Describe their “de-scope,” “lien list,” and “cash reserve” approaches.
1) De-scope: Performance objectives were ranked and could be cut from the
bottom, if necessary, to meet the cost objectives set for the project.
2) Lien list: This was a list of potential changes to the project that were anticipated
or discovered along the way. By recognizing these as potentially costly changes,
and managing the list, cost growth could be controlled.
3) Cash reserve: Costs would be squeezed at the start of the project. The intention
was to release funds, only if they could not be squeezed out of the project.
Question 4: Recent design-to-cost interplanetary projects have also had some
spectacular failures. Is this the natural result of this new philosophy?
NASA has done considerable soul searching on this subject after the loss of the Mars
Climate Orbiter. The excellent white paper (available at
ftp://ftp.hq.nasa.gov/pub/pao/reports/1999/MCO_report.pdf) concluded that the drive to
reduce cost was definitely a contributing factor in the incident. The danger is (and was)
that scope vital to the success of the mission could be ignored in the name of cost
cutting. This is not the result of underhanded scheming, but a natural consequence of
overworked people believing that, what they can’t get to will probably come out okay just
the same.
Convention Security: Project Success through Budget Recovery
Question 1: How is a project for an event like a multi-day convention different
from a project like building a house?
Managing a convention is different from managing the construction of a house, since
there are fewer chances of changes in the architecture of a house than in the

requirements of a convention. Managing a convention usually requires ad-hoc changes
in the plans, since there is no primary decision maker and there had to be compromises
and disagreements. This is unlike building a house which is much simpler to manage in
comparison to a multi-day convention.
Question 2: Does 72 different risk factors seem like a lot to plan for? How
important was CSP’s contingency planning for this project?
Planning for 72 different risk factors is indeed a humungous task. It usually happens that
managing one risk factor changes the risk level of some other factor. Managing so many
factors to an acceptable level at the same time requires a lot of careful attention,
exercise, and experience. CSP’s contingency planning was very important in this case
since it was not the primary decision maker. The team knew in advance that they will
have to work with other agencies and they planned accordingly to take care of any
changes. If they wouldn’t have planned for this, the convention was surely at risk.
Question 3: How does not being in control of decisions and plans affect the
project manager?
It is very difficult for a manager to not be in control of decisions and plans, since that is
what the task of manager is. He is used to taking actions and decisions based on his
experience, but certain situations demand more control of oneself than that of the
situation. When there are multiple parties and stakeholders, one person is not
responsible for everything and the manager is aware of this. He carefully makes his
plans and modifies his activities to be able to meld his decisions with others, if the need
arrives. A project manager not only manages a project but also manages a team and
knows what decisions are to be taken in different circumstances.
Question 4: Does being off by 150% in the estimate for human resources required
for a project surprise you? What do you think happened? How do you think they
managed to accommodate this change without exceeding the budget?
It is definitely surprising to being off by 150% in the estimate. I believe that CSP under-
estimated the number of troopers that were required or was not aware of the level of
security required. However, they did think of multiple plans with alternate contingencies
to account for different types of changes in their plan of action. When the need arrived,
they were able to make these changes by careful use of project management tools and
practices to avoid any budget increases. Indeed, one of the major reasons for not
exceeding the project budget was the development of multiple plans with alternate
arrangements for different situations.
Managing Costs at Massachusetts’ Neighborhood Health Plan
Question 1: Wouldn’t higher eligibility requirements for subscribers cut NHP’s
health care costs? Why did this exacerbate NHP’s situation?
Reducing the patient load did not reduce the providers’ fixed cost for insurance and
facilities. Therefore, fewer patients had to absorb the same costs, but the revenues were
reduced. Profit therefore is dependent on changes in volume of demand. This made it
difficult for them as volume decreased.
Question 2: Explain the trade-off between hospital utilization and contract rates.

This scenario can be a complex one to evaluate financially. Visualize a scenario where a
patient’s stay generates sufficient revenue to cover the variable costs associated with
the stay. Once variable costs have been met, the remaining revenue can be used to
offset fixed costs. Once the level of utilization has covered the fixed costs, the hospital
begins to make a profit. However, suppose that the patient does not pay enough
revenue to cover the variable costs associated with the treatment received, any level of
hospital utilization will create a loss of profit.
Question 3: How did changing from a line item pay plan to an episode plan allow
comparisons and save costs?
The pay-per-episode plan establishes a standard cost that can be easily audited. In a
pay-by-line-item plan, it is much more difficult to detect and disallow inappropriate
additions to the bill being issued by the hospital. The hospital has an incentive to add
line items to help offset its fixed expenditures, so that it can recognize an operating
profit.
Habitat for Humanity Wins a Big One
Question 1: Did LHH seem to have a “de-scope” plan?
LHH did not seem to have a plan to de-scope, or reduce the scope of the plan. They
seemed to only consider that they would get all of the money from the LCHTC that was
proposed or nothing at all.
Question 2: Did LHH seem to understand the County Committee’s budget
allocation process?
It seems apparent that LHH did not understand the time issue with the County
Committee’s budget allocation process. LHH appeared to do everything else correctly,
but as shown by their strategy to contact the committee members individually when they
didn’t hear a response soon, they may not have understood how long budget allocations
take.
Question 3: How did the concept of partnering (Chapter 4) apply in this example?
Why do you think the Committee was insensitive to this opportunity?
LHH should have considered partnering with the County, which would have provided the
County with more incentive to approve the request.
The Emanon Aircraft Corporation
Question 1: How did inflating the material costs solve purchasing’s “lateness”
problem?
By inflating the estimated cost of the materials, the purchasing official may be ordering
extra material in the inventory to avoid any scarcity. This didn’t actually solve the
purchasing lateness problem, but increased the working capital requirements and the
financing costs associated with sustaining the extra capital as raw materials inventory.
The working capital appears to be chargeable to the project as an indirect cost (bulk
purchase allocated over the period’s units of output). In reality, the project is only seeing
a portion of the net impact to net free cashflow.
Question 2: What alternatives were available to Emanon besides demoting the
purchasing manager?

Rather than demoting the manager, Emanon could have issued warnings to the
purchasing official to avoid such issues in the future. Also, they could have penalized the
official monetarily in proportion to the penalty paid by the corporation. Another option
could have been to affect his yearly appraisal.
Question 3: What should Emanon do now?
Emanon now knows that the reason behind losing the competition was the increased
expected material costs. It should now work with its purchasing department to bring the
cost down to what is required and ensure that multiple checks are performed at different
levels of the purchasing department, so that the costs estimated are as close to actual
costs as possible with a minimal overhead for unexpected circumstances.
Simulating the Failure of California’s Levees
Question 1: What would be involved in changing the simulation threat from
hurricanes to earthquakes?
In order to change the simulation threat from hurricanes to earthquakes, the simulation
model would have to be modified by the scientists to account for the movement of the
ground in addition to the influx of water. The base model from New Orleans would be a
good start for the simulation, but additional parameters would need to be included.
Question 2: What process do you think would be used to analyze the simulation
results?
Hopefully the engineers could take historical data to run through the simulation to see
how accurately the simulation output matched historical results. Students may come up
with a variety of answers.
MATERIAL REVIEW QUESTIONS
Question 1: What are the advantages of top-down budgeting? Of bottom-up
budgeting? What is the most important task for top management to do in bottom-
up budgeting?
Refer to Section 7.1 in the text.
1) Advantages of top-down budgeting include:
a) Management can develop aggregated budgets that are reasonably accurate if
they are based on comparable projects.
b) It is not necessary to know about each task in order to develop a top-down
estimate.
2) Advantages of bottom-up budgeting include:
a) Individuals closer to the work are apt to have a more accurate idea of resource
requirements than their superiors or others not personally involved.
b) The resource requirements needed to complete tasks within work packages will
be more accurate than when other budgeting techniques are used.
c) Active participation of the stakeholders will tend to increase the acceptance and
support for the budget. The act of participating in bottom-up budget preparation

can help increase the emotional investment of stakeholders for adhering to the
cost baseline.
d) Bottom-up budgeting can help train managers to understand important
dimensions of project success. For example, junior managers will learn more
about how resource consumption will affect profitability and future cash flows.
3) Senior management should check to ensure that all major cost elements have been
included in the bottom-up budget.
Question 2: In preparing a budget, what indirect costs should be considered?
Refer to Section 7.2 in the text. An indirect cost is a cost that cannot be directly traced
back to the production of an output. For accounting purposes, two rules of thumb are
often used when classifying a cost as direct or indirect. In order to fall into the direct cost
category, the cost must be physically observable (it can be seen and measured when an
output is made) and it must be economically feasible to track the cost during production
of each output. If this is not true, then the cost will usually be captured in bulk as an
indirect cost and allocated back to the units of output that were created during a fixed
period of time (accounting period, for example). Examples of indirect costs that a project
manager should consider include:
1) Sales, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A)
2) Contract penalties
3) Contingency allowances
4) Waste and reduction to fair market value (defects, spoilage, and obsolescence)
5) Turnover costs (replacement and training of personnel)
Question 3: Describe the purpose and use of a tracking signal.
Refer to Section 7.2 in the text. The tracking signal is used to measure an estimator’s
relative (to the MAD or MAR) bias. Bias is detected as patterns of variation that are not
random. The textbook provides two examples of a tracking signal (TS).
Question 4: Describe the top-down budgeting process.
Refer to Section 7.1 in the text. Initially, few details may exist regarding how the work
should be accomplished. In such cases, senior management sets a top-down budget by
comparing the new project with similar ones done in the past. Then the budgets can be
cascaded to and validated by the lower levels of management. During this process of
cascading, the decomposition of required outputs into families of related work packages
should help to confirm the feasibility of the initial estimate.
Question 5: What is a variance?
Refer to Section 7.2 in the text, Table 7-1, and the glossary. There are many potential
perspectives that can be used to explain the concept of variance. At the most basic
level, a variance is the difference between a planned value and an actual value.
Because variances measure the uncertainties that are present in a management system
such as a project plan, variances may be random or nonrandom. If the project manager
observes random variation, the variance may be acceptable. If the project manager

observes nonrandom variation, it should be treated as an exception and investigated to
see if corrective action is required to restore stability to the performance levels observed
while executing the project plan.
Question 6: Describe the learning curve phenomenon.
Refer to Section 7.2 in the text. There is a cliché that “practice makes perfect.” In the
basic learning curve, each time the number of repetitions for a task is doubled, a
predictable percentage of improvement in productivity will be observed. If 100 hours
were required to complete task “A” on the first cycle, a 90% learning curve would mean
that only 90 hours would be necessary on the second cycle. On the fourth cycle, only 81
hours would be needed to complete that repetition of task “A.”
Question 7: How might you determine if cost estimates are biased?
Refer to Section 7.2 in the text. With respect to a cost estimate, it is not desirable to
either over or underestimate costs. When a distribution of estimates is unbiased, the
over estimates and the underestimates will tend to cancel each other out, resulting in
little bias. The text provides a very good explanation of mean absolute ratio (MAR) and
mean absolute deviation (MAD). A tracking signal (TS) is used to detect if estimates are
biased, and how much relative are the estimates to the natural variation (or error), that
is, the MAD.
Question 8: What is “program budgeting”?
Refer to Section 7.1 in the text. Program budgeting describes the process of developing
and maintaining budgets that are broken down by actual task in a specific project. A
variant is to show budgets for a series of projects that are related to a specific program.
Question 9: What is the difference between project and category oriented
budgets?
This question is meant to make the students understand the distinction between
“categories” and “activities.” Categories are generic groups of activities such as
“transporting materials,” while activities are specific tasks in a project/program such as
“move steel rods from location A to location B on Sept. 3.”
Refer to Section 7.1 in the text. In category-oriented budgets, expenses are categorized
into cost sub-accounts such as supplies, labor, electricity, gas, and telephone, and
grouped for the organizational level being reported, even sometimes a specific project.
In project-oriented budgets, expenses are categorized into the project tasks that
consume various types of resources.
Question 10: How does a risk analysis operate? How does a manager interpret the
results?
To perform risk analysis, a manager makes certain assumptions about the parameters
and variables associated with a project decision. This is then checked with the risk
profile or the uncertainty that is present with these variables. This helps in the estimation
of risk profiles or probability distributions of the outcomes of the decisions. Generally a

project involves multiple parameters and variables and thus simulation is preferred over
tedious analytical methods. This simulation/analytical process reveals the distribution of
various outcomes and this risk profile is used to assess the value of the decision along
with various other factors.
CLASS DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
Question 11: Discuss ways in which to keep budget planning from becoming a
game.
Refer to Section 7.1 in the text. This is a tough issue which should be able to generate
an interesting class discussion. The process is a “game” when the participants perceive
it as a zero sum game with management decisions made in an arbitrary and capricious
manner. Management can try a few things to defuse the situation such as:
1) Use open and honest discussions about resource allocation decisions that are
based upon principles of shared interest and collegial management.
2) Refrain from mandating across-the-board budget cuts when faced with cost
containment problems.
3) Use the four dimensions of project success to foster rational and consistent
resource allocation decisions in a manner that links project management
strategies to overall business success.
Question 12: List some of the pitfalls in cost estimating. What steps can a
manager take to correct cost overruns?
Refer to Sections 7.1 and 7.2 in the text.
1) Uncertainty: By nature projects are unique; therefore, any estimate made beforehand
about project outcomes is uncertain. Estimates are just that; they are always wrong.
2) Assumptions: An assumption is the answer to a question that is otherwise unknown
or too expensive to get a timely answer. There is nothing wrong with assumptions;
they are a part of the game in creating estimates in the face of uncertainty. One
danger with assumptions is that they present an opportunity for biases to be
embedded in the project. One particularly dangerous assumption is that the data
from past projects can be blindly applied to the estimates for new projects. If the new
project is different enough in process or product, old data can only be used with a
grain of salt. It’s important to keep in mind that using old data uncritically can make
the estimate too high as well as too low.
3) Learning Curves: Experience can influence productivity. The estimator may need to
consider the effects of experience using techniques such as the learning curve.
4) Bad Data: Data about past performance may have been captured incorrectly and/or
reported inaccurately. The estimator should validate the accuracy of historical data
with respect to representing what the data should represent.
5) Missing Scope: The most accurate estimate will be fatally flawed, if it does not
account for all the work the project has to do. This could be due to a poor estimating
process or uncertainty about the actual work scope.

Before managers can correct cost overruns, they must detect them. This means that
there has to be a detailed plan that is measured on a regular basis. When overruns are
detected, the manager needs to evaluate the root cause with the help of the team.
Corrective action may include reducing staff, reducing scope, or increasing the budget.
Question 13: Why do consulting firms frequently subsidize some projects? Is this
ethical?
Refer to Section 7.2 in the text. It’s ethical for companies to take a deliberate loss on a
project for several reasons:
• The company is investing in a new business area.
• The company is sharing costs with a partner in support of a future big win-win
situation. For example this might be undercharging on a project supporting
another company’s proposal preparation.
• The project represents a charitable donation.
• The company would otherwise have no work at all, but wishes to retain its staff.
It is unethical for a company to knowingly underbid a contract with the intent of making
the money back through later changes. The U.S Government has named this practice as
“defective pricing” and goes to great length to prevent it and punish the perpetrators.
Question 14: What steps can be taken to make controlling costs easier? Can these
steps also be used to control other project parameters, such as scope?
In order to control costs, it is essential to have a project plan that is organized according
to the way the project actually will be managed. To develop such a plan, use the WBS to
decompose project deliverables from the scope statement into sets of deliverable-
oriented work packages linked to cost centers in the project’s budget. By linking the
control mechanisms to the work packages, the manager will have a much better chance
of detecting overruns when something can still be done about them. This is also true for
other parameters such as schedule and progress (performance). As painful as it sounds,
it is better to measure cost, schedule, and progress more frequently than less. The
longer it takes to detect a variance, the bigger it will be and the harder to correct.
Question 15: Which budgeting method is likely to be used with which type of
organizational structure?
Refer to Section 7.1 in the text. Functional organizations will tend to prefer activity-
oriented budgets. Project based organizations would prefer to have program-oriented
budgets. In these two forms, the vertical hierarchy is the driving factor behind budgeting
tendencies. However, the matrix form may exhibit tendencies toward using both types of
budgets. The weak matrix form would be expected to exhibit functional preferences,
while the strong matrix (project matrix) would tend to exhibit project preferences more
predominately.
Question 16: What are some potential problems with the top-down and bottom-up
budgeting processes? What are some ways of dealing with these potential
problems?

Refer to Section 7.1 in the text.
1) Top-Down Budget Problems: Top-down budgets are often developed from
analogies, parametric models, and/or business intuition. Budgets based on
analogies are only useful, if the new project is similar enough to the old ones. If
parametric models are used, the estimator may neglect to include important cost
elements and/or the parameters in the model may not reflect the current process.
If the model is derived from business intuition, the estimates will tend to be overly
optimistic. In all cases, the use of bottom-up estimating techniques to confirm the
top-down estimate is recommended.
2) Bottom-up Budget Problems: Bottom-up budgets should be developed using the
WBS to organize estimates by cost center. However, the WBS format may make
it difficult to capture indirect costs in a manner that will be credible to members of
the various functions actually doing the work. Moreover, the bottom-up estimate
is even more likely than a top-down estimate to leave out some important cost
elements. This could be because the estimating process is poorly organized or
because the project is different enough that the scope is “unknown” to the
estimators. Bottom-up budgets should be compared with top-down budgets as a
sanity check.
Question 17: How is the budget planning process like a game?
There are natural differences between management and workers. Managers are often
measured by cost performance, which may be tied to bonuses. Workers on the other
hand do not like their performance to be monitored, particularly in a direct and frequent
manner. When asked how long it will take to do something, they will typically give a
“comfortable” answer, especially if they are experienced. Workers who have been
around the track a few times become firm believers in Murphy’s Law and give estimates
based on the worst case. One other factor that I have observed is technical folk’s
reluctance to accept the realities of the capitalist system. They will insist till the cows
come home that a project will take so many hours, regardless of whether anybody can
afford the deliverable at the resulting price. The game part comes in when the two
parties begin to anticipate each other’s actions. The workers inflate their estimates in
anticipation of management cutting them. Managers cut the estimates because they
know that (surprise!) they have been inflated, and the vicious circle starts.
Question 18: Would any of the conflict resolution methods described in the
previous chapter be useful in the budget planning process? Which?
Refer to the answer of Question 16 in this book and to Chapter 6 in the textbook. The
technique used during conflict resolution (budget planning process) will be contingent
upon the situation. Confrontation (interdisciplinary problem-solving) would be the
preferred approach for this author. However, compromises may be appropriate in
scenarios where both parties have equal power and an acceptable outcome can be
attained. The other conflict resolution strategies should see infrequent use during
budgeting processes. For example:

1) Avoidance: The project is an operating necessity and the process being fixed
produces benefits that far exceed the execution costs of the project. Failure is not
an option. Consider the project initiated when the Apollo 13 astronauts had to
abort the planned lunar landing and return to Earth.
2) Withdrawal: The budget issue is unimportant to one of the stakeholders. For
example, a contractor, as a conscious strategy to invest in maintaining a client
relationship, may absorb a minor scope change. Such decisions would be based
on the total lifecycle value of the relationship rather than the costs associated
with a single scope change transaction.
3) Forcing: In cases where cost constraints (market pressures) could jeopardize
business survival, unless preferred approaches of the performing organization
are modified, forcing budgets on a single project may be an appropriate albeit
risky response necessary to get the job done.
Question 19: How does the fact that capital costs vary with different factors
complicate the budgeting process?
Refer to Section 7.1 in the text. Cash flows for capital costs are managed differently than
the cash flows for operating costs. Each industry may use different assumptions and
procedures as to how capital costs should be treated in budgets. Moreover, since capital
costs are associated with future business capacity, they have a greater degree of
uncertainty than the operating expenses consumed in a single business period. To end
this discussion, since capital costs are accumulated in bulk, the allocation of their usage
to activities in a budget may be significantly influenced by external variables such as
changes in market supply and demand.
Question 20: Why is learning curve analysis important to project management?
Refer to Section 7.2 in the text. For projects of a similar nature, repetition should improve
productivity. It’s important for the estimators to understand and carefully apply
assumptions about the learning curve. For example, if the learning factor embedded in
historic data is ignored, a project could be underestimated, because it will start out with
no learning at all.
Question 21: Why is it “ethically necessary to be honest” in negotiations between
a superior and subordinate?
Depending on the situation, bosses may not even need to negotiate. There are times
when it is appropriate for a boss to direct (think of the captain of a warship during battle),
but they aren’t that frequent in most project management situations. In most cases, there
is some level of negotiation that takes place. If the boss wants the enlightened support of
his/her subordinates, then she needs to be honest in her dealings with them. If not,
upset subordinates can “sandbag” the project making it look like they are doing the work
when in fact, they are not. In all but the smallest project, it will be impossible for the boss
to make up personally the lost work when it is discovered. Bosses do have power, but
they need to use it ethically for the long-term good of the organization.

It is also ethically necessary for subordinates to be honest as well. They should be
truthful in their communication with the supervisor. For instance, they should let the
supervisors know when they may need time away from work, what type of work they
prefer, etc. By communicating these types of things, it is more likely the subordinate will
be happy and the project completed is closer to on time.
Question 22: The chapter describes the problems of budgeting for S-shaped and
J-shaped life-cycle projects. What might be the budgeting characteristics of a
project with a straight line life cycle?
The chapter emphasizes the danger of simple across the board budget cuts for projects
with exponential or right half of a U-shaped life cycle. If the budget is cut by 10%, a
major portion of the benefit is lost. For these life cycle curves, however, further cuts have
less impact than the first. With an S-shaped curve the loss of benefit increases with each
cut. For a linear curve, a 10% cut in budget would cause a 10% loss in benefit, and each
subsequent cut would have proportionately the same amount of benefit loss.
Question 23: Interpret the columns of data in Figure 7-11. Does the $14,744 value
mean that the project is expected to return only this amount of discounted
money?
The columns in Figure 7-11 summarizes the results of the simulation data based on
these trial runs performed. The $14,744 value doesn’t indicate the exact value of the
project. Rather, it indicates the mean value based on the simulations runs in this
analysis.
Question 24: How would you find the probability in Figure 7-10 of an NPV of over
$25,000?
To find the probability of an NPV greater than $25,000 (in Figure 7-10), you would enter
“25,000” in the box in the lower left corner of the screen. The probability would then be
displayed in the “Certainty” box situated in the middle of the screen.
Question 25: Does the spread of the data in Table 7-4 appear realistic? Reconsider
Table 7-4 to explain why the simulated outcome in Figure 7-11 is so much less
than the value originally obtained in Table 7-3.
The spread of data in Table 7-4 is realistic given the nature of the PERT estimates
(pessimistic, most likely, and optimistic). This method provides a range of likelihoods
based on different scenarios. The simulated outcome in Figure 7-11 is lesser than the
value originally obtained in Table 7-3 because of the inclusion of the lower “minimum
inflow” column in Table 7-4. This reduces the overall values because it decreases the
estimates.

PROBLEMS
Problem 1: Using the cost estimation template and Actuals in Figure 7-5, compare
the model in the figure with the following estimates derived from a multiplicative
model. Base your comparison on the mean bias, the MAR, and the tracking signal.
Comment.
Period: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Estimated:179 217 91 51 76 438 64 170
Tracking
Period Estimate Actual (A(t)/F(t))-1|(A(t)/F(t))-1| MAR Signal
1 179 163 -0.08939 0.08939
2 217 240 0.105991 0.105991 0.10 0.17
3 91 67 -0.26374 0.26374 0.15 -1.61
4 51 78 0.529412 0.529412 0.25 1.14
5 76 71 -0.06579 0.06579 0.21 1.03
6 438 423 -0.03425 0.03425 0.18 1.00
7 64 49 -0.23438 0.23438 0.19 -0.28
8 170 157 -0.07647 0.07647 0.17 -0.74
Total -0.129
Again, the bias has reduced considerably and changed sign but the MAR is somewhat
greater. Hence, the Tracking Signal is substantially smaller and shows an acceptable
level of bias on the part of this estimator.
Problem 2: Conduct a discounted cash flow calculation to determine the NPV of
the following project, assuming a required rate of return of 0.2. The project will
cost $75,000 but will result in cash inflows of $20,000, $25,000, $30,000, and
$50,000 in each of the next four years.
Year Cash Flow PVIF PV$
0 $(75,000) 1 $(75,000)
1 $20,000 1.200 $16,667
2 $25,000 1.44 $17,361
3 $30,000 1.728 $17,361
4 $50,000 2.0736 $24,113
Rate 20% NPV $502
Problem 3: In Problem 2, assume that the inflows are uncertain but normally
distributed with standard deviations of $1000, $1500, $2000, and $3500,
respectively. Find the mean forecast NPV using Crystal Ball®. What is the
probability the actual NPV will be positive?
To convert this spreadsheet to a Monte Carlo simulation, Crystal Ball®
will be assigned
to generate cash flow values following a normal distribution.

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T
Chap. III.
Of the Sixth Hill, and the Fourteenth Ward.
HE Author of the Description of the Wards relates, that the
fourteenth Ward, though it is looked upon as a Part of the City,
yet because it is divided from the other Wards by an intermediate
Space of Land, and enclosed with its own Walls, makes the Figure of
a small City by it self; and adds, among other Particularities, that the
Entrance of it, at the Gate, is somewhat upon the Level; but the
right Side of it, rising into an Ascent, almost to the Middle of the
broad Way, falls into a deep Ascent, and contains a Church, the
Palace, &c. It is very probable, one would think, or at least it looks
to be so, that any one who had never seen Constantinople, could
learn from this Description in what Part of the City stood the
fourteenth Ward. But since, nothing of the antient Buildings are
remaining there at present, no not so much as the Bridge, or the
very Channel of the River; there is some Room for Enquiry, where
was the Place of its Situation. For I am entirely ignorant of the Gate
whence its Entrance begins, which is somewhat upon the Level. It is
possible that I might also discover the Situation of it, if I knew
where the right Side of the Ward was, which rose into an Ascent.
’Tis plain that this Ward did not stand on the fifth Hill from hence,
that the Author tells us, that it was divided from other Wards by
some intermediate Space. Had this Ward been divided from other
Wards by a small Tract of Land only, it had been very injudicious in
the Inhabitants to have enclosed it with a Wall by it self, when it
stood so near the Walls of the City. I would observe farther, that ’tis
inconceivable that there could be any Bridge on the fifth, sixth, or
seventh Hills of the City, or without the Walls of the City; nor is there
any Valley running between the fifth or the third Hill, where there’s
any Bridge, or any Water, unless it can be imagined that it had any
small Creek, which is now filled up, with a Bridge over it. If it could

be supposed that there formerly stood any Bridge beyond the sixth
Hill, in the Street called Avasarius, we could conclude it to be no
other than what was built over the Bay of Ceras, near which are still
seen the Piles of a Bridge. And in all Probability the sixth Hill was
wholly inhabited, by Reason of the Nearness and Goodness of its
Roads from Thrace. This is the more probable, if it be considered,
that the Suburbs called the Hepdomum, were seated on the sixth
Hill, which excited Theodosius the Less, by Reason of its Nearness to
Constantinople to enlarge the Walls of the City.

T
Chap. IV.
Of the Hepdomum, a Part of the Suburbs; of the
Triclinium of Magnaura; of the Cyclobion; of the
Statue of Mauritius, and his Armory; and of the
Place called the Cynegium.
HE Suburbs, call’d the Hepdomum, stood upon the third Hill,
which is now enclosed within the Walls of the City. This is plain
from the Situation of the Church of St. John Baptist, whom, even at
this Time, the Greeks call the Πρόδρομος, or Fore-runner of our
Saviour. This Church is seated on the Eastern Side of the City. ’Tis
almost entirely demolished by the Mahometans, and nothing of it
remains but a few Marble Pillars, expecting the last Effort of their
Sacrilege. This was a costly and magnificent Building, as appears,
among other Tokens, from the Cistern of Bonus, which was built by
a Nobleman of that Name, and seated a little above it. It was three
hundred Paces long; its Roof and Columns are entirely ruined, and
its Situation at present is turned into a Garden. Sozomen says, that
Theodosius the Great brought over the Head of St. John Baptist,
from a Village call’d Coslaus, near Pantichium, in Chalcedon, and
placed it before Constantinople in the Hepdomum, and there built a
large and handsome Church to the Honour of God. The same Author
attests, that Theodosius, when he marched his Army against
Eugenius, as soon as he came out of the City, offered his Prayers to
God, in St. John Baptist’s Church, which he had built in the
Hepdomum. Procopius pays too great a Compliment to Justinian,
when he reports him to have built this Church in the forementioned
Suburbs. Zonaras tells us, that in the Reign of Constantine surnamed
Pogonatus, the Hagarens besieged the City with a numerous Fleet,
which extended itself from the Promontory situated in the
Hepdomum Westward, as far as the Cyclobion. Other Historians
mention the same Thing; namely, that they had their Station from

the said Promontory, or the Triclinium of Magnaura, as far Easterly
as the Palace call’d Cyclobion. From which Passage I would observe
by the By, that Magnaura was a Place in the Hepdomum. Cedrinus
asserts, that Philip of Macedon, built there a round Solar, and placed
in the Court of it his own Statue, and built an Armory there. Others
write, that Mauritius the Emperor built the Triclinium of Magnaura,
and that he erected his Statue, and built the Armory there. Over the
Triclinium are inscribed these Verses;
Upon the Triclinium of Magnaura.
Heraclius and his Son Constantine,
With Conquest crown’d, and loaden with Success,
Under th’ auspicious Influence of the Cross,
Built, with surprizing Speed, this beauteous Structure.
The Cistern of Magnaura, which stood near the Palace, was
demolished by Heraclius; and, as Cedrinus relates, was afterwards
cleansed, and rebuilt by Order of Philip, King of Macedon. Some
attest, if not consistently with Truth, yet more appositely, that the
Emperor Anastasius, when he was expiring at that Place, by a
terrible Storm of Wind, Lightning and Thunder, cried out with a loud
Voice; Magnâ perimus aurâ. Pulcheria the Sister of Theodosius the
Less, being removed from the Administration of the Government,
retired into the Hepdomum, and lived privately. Zonaras relates, that
Nicephorus the Emperor, surnamed Phocas, as he came near to the
City, was received by the Prasine Faction, with great Acclamations,
and that he was crowned Emperor in the Hepdomum by the
Patriarch of Constantinople. The Reason why those Suburbs are
called the Hepdomum, is taken from the Number Seven, which was
formerly the Number of them. They retained their antient Names,
even after they were inclosed within the City. Procopius has it, that
Justinian, in that Ward, which ought to be called the Second, built a
Church to St. Anne. An unknown Writer of the Empire of
Constantinople gives a Reason why it may be called the Second. In
the Place, says he, called the Second, there stood the Statue of
Justinian Rhinometus. Bardus Cæsar Michael, the Grandfather of
Theophilus, demolished and broke it to Pieces. This Place is called

the Second, because when Justinian was banished by Leo the
Patrician to Cherso, after he had continued there ten Years, he
applied himself to Terbelus, King of the Bulgarians, whose Daughter
Theodora he married. The King gave him an Army, which he
marched against Constantinople to recover his Empire. But the
Inhabitants denying him Entrance, he privately stole into the City
through the Passage of an Aqueduct to a Place where was still
remaining the Foundation of a Pillar he had set up, and which his
Adversary had destroyed. Having recovered his Dominions a second
Time, he erected there a second Pillar, and built in the same Place a
Church, which was dedicated to St. Anne. But, as I observed a little
before, Procopius relates, that Justinian built this Church in the
second Ward, where, I am of Opinion, before the Reign of
Theodosius the Less, who built the Walls of the City, stood the
Suburbs of the seventh Hill, that is, according to Cedrinus and
others, in the twelfth Ward. There were, say these Writers, most
dreadful Earthquakes, which overturned the Wall of the City in the
Exacionion, and levell’d many beautiful Houses and magnificent
Churches in the Porta Aurea of the City; and add that in the second
Ward, the Shock was felt as far as St. Anne’s Church. I mentioned
this Observation to many of mine Acquaintance, lest any one should
imagine that the δεύτερον χώριον was one of the fourteen Wards
mentioned in the Treatise, entitled, an Antient Description of
Constantinople. I am surprized that Procopius, who was so exact in
describing so many Buildings of the City, never mentions them, since
they are taken Notice of by Justinian in his Constitutions. There’s a
Church situate on the seventh Hill, between the Palace of
Constantine, and the Adrianopolitan Gate, which though for many
Ages it stood within the Walls, yet on three Sides of it, it formerly
stood without the Walls of the City, as it was customary to build the
Greek Churches. There’s a Portico runs round it. The Walls of it
within are incrusted with square Pieces of several Kinds of Marble,
the Fissures of which are covered from Top to Bottom with Modules
of Astragals, some of which are adorned with Berries, and others are
work’d round without them. Above these Incrustations rise three
Fasciæ, and three Ornaments resembling an Astragal, two of which

are round, and the uppermost of them is of a square Figure. Higher
yet are three Fasciæ, above these are the Dentils, and over the
Dentils, a Corinthian Foliage. It will evidently appear from what I
shall mention hereafter, that the Suburbs called the Hepdomum,
were in the fourteenth Ward of the City, where also stood a Palace.
There remains at present, out of many antient Palaces, not so much
as the Name of one of them, except that seated on the seventh Hill,
which is called the Palace of Constantine, besides a few Pillars, and a
Cistern in which the Grand Signor’s Elephants are stabled. In the
Plain upon the Shore, situate at the Foot of the sixth Hill Eastward, is
the Palatine Gate called Cynegion. Without the Gate is a fine Growth
of Plane-Trees. Near the Gate, within the Wall, were formerly three
large Arches, now fill’d up, through which the Inhabitants used to
sail their Three-oar’d Galleys, into a Creek built within the City for
the Conveniency of the neighbouring Palace. This Creek is now
entirely ruin’d, and turn’d into a Garden. The Cynegion, according to
modern Writers, is a Place of some Note, so that even Suidas himself
thought it not impertinent to insert in his Lexicon the following Story.
Criminals, says he, condemned to dye were thrown into the
Cynegion, which was adorned with some Statues. Theodorus, the
Town-Clerk, going thither with Imerius Keeper of the Records, saw a
short, but a very thick Statue. Look upon the Man, says Imerius,
meaning himself, who built the Cynegion. I returned in Answer, that
Maximinus built it, and that Aristides measured out the Ground;
when immediately one of its Pillars fell, which crushed Imerius to
Pieces, so that he died on the Spot. Being terrified at the Sight, I
hastened to the Church, where I told what had happened. I attested
the Fact with an Oath to those who questioned the Relation. Some
of the Emperor’s Domesticks and Servants, when their Attendance
was over, walked with me to the Place. Being surprized at the Death
of Imerius, and the Fall of the Pillar, a certain Philosopher named
Johannes, told ’em, that he had discovered from a small Animal, that
a Man of some Note should dye. Philip of Macedon believing him,
ordered the little Creature to be bury’d in the Place, where this
Accident happened. Justinus the Third commanded Tiberius and
Leontius, after they had reign’d three Years, to have their Chains

taken off, ty’d Body to Body, dragged thro’ the Forum and the
Theatre by Horses; and after he had trampled upon the Necks of
them, he ordered them to be slain in the Cynegion, in the Sight of
the People. I look upon this Theatre to be that which was called
Theatrum Venatorium. For as there was such a Theatre at Rome, so
there was at Constantinople. For Procopius reports, that the
Theatres, Hippodroms, and the Cynegia, were greatly neglected, and
fell to Ruine, thro’ the Avarice of Justinian.

T
Chap. V.
Of the Blachernæ, the Triclinium of the Blachernæ,
the Palace, the Aqueduct and many other Places of
Antiquity.
HE Author of the Book entitled, The antient Description of the
Wards attests, that there stood in the fourteenth Ward, a Church,
but does not name it; nor does he take Notice of the Blachernæ,
although it was called so before the taking of Constantinople by
Severus, as I shall immediately make appear. The Blachernæ stood
without the Walls, not only in the Time when that Book was wrote,
but even in the Reign of Justinian, who, as Procopius writes, built a
Church, which he dedicated to the Virgin Mary, before the Walls of
the City, in a Place called the Blachernæ. The Spectator, says he,
when he enters this Church, will admire its large and bulky Building,
yet secure from the Danger of falling by the Strength of its
Foundation. You may behold in it, adds he, a stately Magnificence,
without any Mixture of Gaiety, and too much Embellishment. ’Tis my
Opinion, that Justinian only repaired this Church: For Zonaras
reports, that Pulcheria, the Wife of Marcian, built a Church in the
Blachernæ, and dedicated it to the Virgin Mary. Pomponius Lætus
tells us, that this Church was built by Theodosius. Cedrinus writes,
that Justin the Nephew of Justinian, added two Arches to the Church
in the Blachernæ. So that ’tis plain from what Procopius has wrote
upon this Occasion, that the Blachernæ stood without the Walls of
the City, as it is no less evident from the Testimony of Agathius.
When the barbarous Nations, says he, approached Constantinople,
by the Permission of Justinian, all the Churches situate without the
Walls, from the Blachernæ to the Black-Sea, were stripp’d of their
Armaments, which were kept within the City. There is at present to
be seen, near the Gate called Xylon, and the Western Angle of the
City, between the Foot of the sixth Hill, and the turning of a Mosque,

situate within the City, (which the People say was dedicated to the
Virgin Mary) a Spring now running, which the Greeks tell us was
consecrated to her. The Place, where the Spring is, is call’d the
Blachernæ. Upon my first coming to Constantinople, some Remains
of it were to be seen, but now there nothing appears even of its
Ruines. From the Bottom of the sixth Hill, which rises above the
Church in the Blachernæ, there shoots an Aqueduct with two Pipes;
one of which is stopp’d with a Cock, and the other flows in a
constant Stream. I took Notice before, that Andronicus the Emperor
brought this Aqueduct from the River Hydrales, into the Ward of the
Blachernæ, where there was no River Water till his Time. The
Emperor Anastasius built the great Triclinium in the Blachernæ,
which went under his Name, even in the Time of Suidas. Zonaras,
and others assure us, that the Emperor Tiberius built the publick
Bath in the Blachernæ. ’Tis certain from some modern Histories, that
there was in the Time of Zonaras, even down to the Reign of Manuel
the Emperor, an Imperial Palace in that Place. The Reason why ’tis
called the Blachernæ, is mentioned by Dionysius a Byzantian, in his
Navigation of the Bosporus, from whom I shall just touch upon some
Places described by him, which reach from the Foot of the fifth Hill,
to the furthermost Angle of the City, and the sixth Hill. Beyond
Mellacopsas, says he, (this, I took Notice of before, was at the Foot
of the fifth Hill) there are two Places which afford good Sport in
Fishing, all the Year. One upon the Shallows under the Promontories,
the other under the deep hollow Shores which are never ruffled by
the Wind. The first of these is called Indigenas, from some great
Man who was a Native there; the other Pyracius, from Pyræus, a
Port of Athens; or as some believe, from some antient Inhabitant.
There’s a Place between them called Cittos, from the great Plenty of
Ivy it produces. There is also a steep Place called Camara, which
adjoins that of Pyracius. ’Tis much exposed to the Wind, and
therefore often feels the Roughness of the Sea. Thence, up higher,
stands Thalassa, which is the Boundary of the Ceratine Bay, where
the Rivers begin to flow into it. ’Tis thus called, either by Reason of
their Nearness to the Sea, whose Salt Waters they mingle with their
Freshness, or because it stands steddy, and more out of the Wind;

or rather, because the constant Influx of the Rivers into it, brings
down daily a muddy Substance into the Sea, which very much
thickens it; though it serves for Nourishment to the Multitudes of
Fish with which it abounds. The first Place that stands upon this
calm Sea is called Polyrrhetius, from a Man named Polyrrhetus: The
next is Vateiascopia, so called from the deep Sea that is about it; a
third is the Blachernæ, which is a barbarous Word; and the last
Place is the Marshes.

N
Chap. VI.
Of the Bridge near the Church of St. Mamas; of his
Hippodrom; of the Brazen Lyon, and the Sepulchre
of the Emperor Mauritius.
OT only some Historians, but also Suidas the Grammarian, have
handed it down to us, that near the Church of St. Mamas, there
stood a Bridge, which had twelve Arches; for there was a great
Floud of Waters at that Place. There was also set up at the same
Place a brazen Dragon; because ’twas reported that a Serpent had
some Time liv’d there, which had deflour’d many Virgins. This Story
was occasion’d by the Name of a Man, who was call’d Basiliscus, one
of Numerianus Cæsar’s Life-Guard, who liv’d there, and built a
Church, which Zeno afterwards pull’d down. Constantine, call’d
Iconomachus, because he was a profess’d Enemy to Images, order’d
one Andreas a Statuary, a Man of some Note in the Blachernæ, to be
whipt to Death in the Hippodrom of St. Mamas. Zonaras tells us, that
Mauritius the Emperor was buried in the Church of St. Mamas, which
was built by Pharasmenes, an Eunuch, and Gentleman of the Bed-
chamber to Justinian. Cedrinus writes, that the Church of St. Mamas
stood near the Gate call’d Xylocercon. Others report, That Crunna,
King of the Bulgarians, surrounded Constantinople with an Army
from the Blachernæ to the Porta Aurea, and distrusting the Strength
of his Forces to take the Town, he hasten’d to this Church, set Fire
to a Palace that was near it, and that upon his Retreat, he carry’d off
a Brazen Lyon plac’d in the Hippodrom, a Bear, a Dragon, and some
curious Pieces of Marble. Sozomen speaking of those Persons who
were banish’d on St. Chrysostom’s Account, says, that when they
were got without the Walls they met in a Place situate before the
City, which Constantine order’d to be cleans’d, to be pal’d round, and
made it into a Hippodrom. This, I take it, was the Place which was
afterwards call’d the Hippodrom of St. Mamas. Zonaras adds upon

this Occasion, that Leo the Emperor, scar’d by a Fire, which then
rag’d in the City, flew to the Church of St. Mamas, and continu’d
there for some Time. Cedrinus mentions, that the Emperor diverted
himself with Horse-racing, near the Church of St. Mamas the Martyr,
situate in the Stenon. ’Tis plain from the Authorities abovemention’d,
that this Church was seated in the Blachernæ, and that there was a
Bridge there, as is farther confirm’d by Johannes Tzetzes in his Variâ
Historiâ, where he says, that the Sea extending itself from the
Streights of Abydus, to the Bridge of the Blachernæ, is call’d the
Hellespont. ’Tis also evident, that this Bridge stood, where the Stone
Piles of the old Bridge (when the Water is low, as ’tis in Summer) are
seen at present, and stand between the Suburbs call’d the
Blachernæ, and the Suburbs, which the Turks call the Aibasarium.
This, I am confident, is the same Bridge which the ancient Treatise
of the Wards of the City, calls the Wooden Bridge, and places it in
the fourteenth Ward, in which, as I observ’d, was the Suburbs call’d
the Hepdomum. I desire the Reader to remark one Thing from
Suidas, that St. Mamas Bridge had either twelve Stone Arches, or
else, that he was writing of another Church of St. Mamas, situate in
another Place.

I
Chap. VII.
Of the seventh Hill, the twelfth Ward, and of the
Pillar of Arcadius.
Take it for granted, from the Situation of the Pillar of Arcadius, now
standing on the seventh Hill, call’d the Xerolophon, (which is
divided from the other six Hills by a broad Valley,) that That is the
twelfth Ward, which lies a great Way upon the Level, from the
Entrance of the City at the Porta Aurea, and is lengthen’d, on the
Left Side of it, by a gentle Descent, and bounded by the Sea. It
contain’d the Porta Aurea, the Trojan Portico’s, the Forum, and
Haven of Theodosius, and a Pillar with winding Steps in the Inside,
built in the Xerolophon by Arcadius. The Hill still preserves the same
Name. Upon this Pillar the Emperor plac’d his Statue, which was
thrown down, in the Reign of Leo Conon by an Earthquake, which
shook the whole City, overturn’d many Churches and Houses, and
buried Multitudes of People under it. Cedrinus assures us, that this
Pillar was in all respects like that of Theodosius erected in the
Taurus. It has a Base, a Pedestal, and a Capital. The Shaft of the
Pillar, with its Pedestal and Capital, consists of twenty one Stones.
Above the Capital are two Stones. The Pedestal alone is built with
five Stones, so closely cemented together, that if the Pillar had never
felt the Shocks of an Earth-quake, or the Decays of Time, it had
appear’d to have been one entire Stone. These Stones are plac’d
one above another, and are hollow in the Inside. Each of them is the
whole Compass of the Pillar, out of which are cut the Steps and
Windows which beautify and enlighten it. I took upon me to
measure the Compass of the Shaft from the Stone which covers it at
Top, down to the lowest Step of the Pedestal. This Stone therefore,
thro’ which there is cut a Door, by which you ascend above the
Abacus of the Capital, is about thirteen Foot nine Inches high, and is
itself the Roof and Arch of the whole Pillar. The Door is six Foot two

Digits high, and three Foot nine Inches broad. The second Stone is
six Foot high, in which is cut the uppermost Step above the Abacus
of the Capital. The third is five Foot and four Digits high, and
contains the Abacus and the whole Capital. The fifth is five Foot in
height, wanting two Digits. The Sixth is four Foot nine Inches high.
The Seventh five Foot and two Digits. The Eighth four Foot and four
Digits. The Ninth is six Foot high. The Tenth five Foot. The Eleventh
four Foot and fourteen Digits. The Twelfth four Foot nine Inches.
The Thirteenth five Foot. The Fourteenth five Foot two Digits. The
fifteenth five Foot and a half. The Sixteenth the same. The
Seventeenth five Foot and ten Digits. The eighteenth six Foot and a
half. The Nineteenth five Foot and four Digits. The Twentieth six Foot
and a half. The Twenty first, where the Shaft of the Pillar begins, six
Foot and four Digits high. The Pedestal consists of six Stones. The
uppermost of which is four Foot nine Inches high. The Second is the
same height. The Third four Foot. The Fourth four Foot six Inches.
The Fifth the same. The Sixth and last is four Foot high. It has in all
fifty six Windows, and two hundred thirty three Steps of two kinds.
For some rise in square, others in circular Windings, after the
Manner of some Shell-Fish. You ascend the Pedestal by five square
Winding Steps. Every Winding has at the Top of it a small Floor,
which leads you from one Winding to another. The first and second
Windings have six Steps each; the third eight; the fourth and fifth,
nine each; the lowest of them all, which lies level with the Threshold
of the Door, is ten Digits high, twelve Inches broad, and two Foot
nine Inches long. The other square Windings are like this, and the
Floor at the Top of each of them is two Foot nine Inches square.
Upon the fifth Winding stands the Shaft of the Pillar, the first Steps
of which are ten Digits high; near the Wall they are a Foot broad, in
the Middle a Foot and nine Inches, and in Length they are two Foot
nine Inches. The Steps above them, are all of them, nine Digits high.
The Inside of the Shaft of the Pillar measures twenty eight Foot in
Circumference. The Wall which encloses the Steps, in the lowest Part
of it, is two Foot and three Digits, in the highest, ’tis one Foot nine
Inches thick. If I should be thought too curious, in taking the
Dimensions of every Stone, this Character with more Justice belongs

to that Man, (and yet Thucydides highly commends him for it) who
by counting the Rows of Bricks of which they were built, took the
height of the Enemies Walls. I was under some Apprehensions from
the Savageness of the Inhabitants, lest they should catch me
dropping my Line, had I measur’d it without, so that I lay under a
Necessity of taking the Dimensions within; and by joining the height
of one Stone to the height of another, I discover’d its Altitude. There
are two Steps consisting of many Stones, which first shew
themselves from the Surface of the Earth. Above them is the third
Step, which is cut out of a Stone three Foot and four Digits high, and
thirty three Foot and a half in Circumference. Upon the Stone which
makes the third Step, stands the Pedestal. The first of the five
Stones of which it consists, from the Threshold of the Door, is five
Foot and a half high. Its Ornaments are a plain Plinth three Foot five
Digits high, a small Tore five Digits high, an Apophyge with a Reglet
nine Inches, another Reglet above it two Digits, and a Cornice
engrav’d, which is nine Inches high. The Frieze, on three Sides, is
curiously engrav’d with Trophies; the Northern Side of it, where the
Door is, is not engrav’d at all. The Cornice of the Pedestal bends
downwards. At the bottom of it is a Reglet, above that an Astragal,
adorn’d with Berries; then an Ovolo, and above that an Astragal
wreath’d like a Rope. Higher yet is a Folial Bandage. There projects
beyond the Pedestal a kind of Abacus; on each side of which there
are two Fasces of Laurel-work, the largest of which is incurvated
even to the bottom of the Abacus. On the Sides of this Abacus there
is a Sculpture of seven naked Boys, holding each of them in his
Hand a Laureated Fascis. At every Angle of this Abacus there stands
an Eagle, and above it is the Plinth of the Pillar, adorn’d with a
Foliage, which projects very little. Above the Plinth is a Tore, adorn’d
with Laurel-work, which is filletted with a spiral Bandage. Above the
Tore there rises an Apophyge, upon which Stands the Shaft of the
Pillar, which is carv’d with the Scenes of War, and of Battles. The
Sculpture is much like that which adorns the Pillar of Trajan in Old
Rome. The Trachelium, or Top of the Shaft, is fluted perpendicularly.
The lower part of its Capital is adorn’d with Apophyges, an Ovolo,
and an Abacus, which projects beyond the Shaft two Foot and

fourteen Digits. The Abacus, on all sides of it, is seventeen Foot, and
nine Inches round. Above the Abacus there is a Door, above which
the Pillar rises in the Form of a Cone, where there is another Door
above ten Foot high. We may look upon this Pillar to be of the
Tuscan Order, because both the Base, and the Capital of it, are
finished after the Tuscan manner.

S
Chap. VIII.
Of the Statues, and the antient Tripos of Apollo,
standing in the Xerolophon.
UIDAS writes, that the Xerolophon was formerly call’d Thema,
because it was a kind of Repository, and contained in it fifteen
winding Apartments, the Statue of Diana, and Severus, who built it;
besides a Thermation, a Tripos from whence many Oracles were
deliver’d. In this Place, the Founder of it us’d to offer Sacrifices; and
among others he sacrificed a Virgin. Priscian, whom I find mention’d
by Benedictus Ægius, indefatigably curious in his Search of Antiquity,
observes, That the Azoles sometimes inserted in a Word the Letter
Ϝ, as I have taken Notice of in some Inscriptions of a very antient
Tripos of Apollo, still remaining in the Xerolophon; the Words of
which are written after this Manner; Δημοφάϝων, Λαϝονάϝων. He
tells us, that ’tis customary in another Place, meaning among the
Æolians, to place an Ϝ between two Vowels of the same Word; as in
ὄϝις, ovis, Δάϝος, Davus, ὦϝον, ovum. I have seen, says he, the
same in some old Inscriptions, in very antient Characters, on some
Tripos’s, especially on the Tripos of Apollo, which is at
Constantinople; as Δημοφόϝων for Δημοφόων, Λαϝοκόϝων for
Λαοκόων. Others add, that there were the like Insertions in the
Xerolophon, a little above the Basis of the Pillars of Marcian,
Valentinian, and Theodosius the Less. Zonaras tells us, that Simeon,
a Prince of the Bulgarians, a Man of a cruel and turbulent Spirit,
march’d an Army against the Chrobatians; when he was conquer’d,
and lost his Army, partly by the Badness of the Roads, some Body
inform’d the Emperor that the Statue plac’d above the Arch in the
Xerolophon, looking Westward, was carv’d for the Statue of Simeon
of Bulgaria, and that if any one cut off the Head of the Statue,
Simeon should immediately die. The Emperor commands the Head
of the Statue to be chopt off, and soon received the News that

Simeon was dead of a violent Pain of the Stomach. For he watch’d to
a Minute the Time of his Death. As to the Port of Theodosius, that
was in the same Place where the Gardens, which are now call’d the
Blancha, stand at present. These Gardens are enclos’d with a Wall,
and are seated in a Plain, adjoyning to the Shore of the Propontis, at
the Foot of the sixth Hill. The Mouth of the Port stood Eastward,
from whence the Pier extended it self Westward, in a direct Line,
where at present stand the Walls of the City. The Pier was twelve
Foot in Thickness; and, as I found by walking it, ’twas six Hundred
of my Paces in length. ’Tis now entirely ruin’d. The Gardens, which
are very spacious, abound with Sallets and Potherbs, but have very
few Fruit-Trees. These Gardens are water’d with Pools, which they
have within them, and which are the Remains of the old Port. I
discover’d by the Pier, and Situation of the Place, that ’twas above a
Mile in compass. In the Mouth of the Port, not altogether unfit for
Ships at present, without the City Wall, you still see a Fortress in its
Ruins, surrounded by the Sea. The unknown Writer of the Empire of
Constantinople asserts, That it was first called Thema, afterwards
the Forum of Theodosius; tho’ it seems to me rather to be the
Forum of Arcadius, by Reason the Pillar of Arcadius joyns to it. For
the Forum of Theodosius, in all Probability, stood near the Port of
Theodosius. This is no more than what is conformable to the Rules
of Architecture, which prescribe, that a Market should be built near a
Port. I am of Opinion, that it was formerly call’d the Port of
Eleutherius, if we may credit those Writers who affirm, That
Constantine the Great built a Wall from the Ridge of the first Hill to
the Port of Sophia, and the Port of Eleutherius, built by Constantine
the Great, to prevent the Inundations of the Sea. ’Tis called the Port
of Eleutherius, because, when ’twas built, he was Surveyor of the
Works. It was for this Reason, that there was a Marble Statue
erected to him in that Port, bearing on his Shoulders a Basket of
Marble, and holding in his Hand a Marble Spade. They add further,
that Irena, and her Son Constantine, built him a noble Seat; and
that from that Seat, as far as the Amastrianum, reach’d the
Hippodrom, which was built by Theodosius the Great, and was
demolish’d by Irena. Zonaras writes, that Irena, after she was

remov’d from the Government by Constantine her Son, liv’d in a
House which she built in the Port of Eleutherius. The Portico’s, which
the ancient Description of the Wards of the City names with the
Epithet Troadeæ, others mention with that of Troadesiæ, and tell us,
that Constantine the Great built the Walls of the City as far as the
Portico’s call’d Porticus Troadesiæ (that is, the Trojan Portico’s) and
the Porta Aurea, which stood in the twelfth Ward. I am of Opinion,
that they were call’d the Trojan Portico’s, because they contain’d
some Things of the like Kind with that which was called the Porticus
Varia. ’Tis reported, says he, that in the Portico, formerly call’d
Plesiactia, and now Pæcilla, or Porticus Varia, a celebrated Painter
drew the Face of Laodice, on the Picture of Elpinica. I had not known
it by the Name it goes at present, had it not been for a Spring near
it which they call Χρυσοπηγὴ, as deriving its Name from the Porta
Aurea. This Spring, to this Day, constantly flows, and is drank with
great Devotion by the Greeks, who hold all Springs, near their
Churches, to be sacred. There’s nothing of the Church remaining at
present, tho’ Procopius takes Notice of it. Justinian, says he, built
two Churches to the Virgin Mary, before the Walls of the City one in
the Blachernæ, the other in a Place call’d Πηγὴ, where there is a
large Wood of Cypresses, a verdant Meadow, and a delightful
Garden, which produces a great Store of fine Fruit, and where there
is also a gentle Spring, which affords very good drinking Water. One
of the Churches stood near the Sea-shore, the other near the Porta
Aurea. Both of them, he adds, were near the end of the City Walls,
and were upon Occasion impregnable Fortresses to it. From hence I
would remark, that in the Time of Justinian, the Angle of the City,
which they call the Angle of the seven Towers, was not within the
City; but that the Land-wall from the Porta Aurea, straitned the
Angle of the City into a more narrow Compass, as appears from the
Situation of the Monastery of Studius, which stood upon a piece of
Ground, which was formerly look’d upon to be in the Suburbs, but
now stands further within the Walls, than the Angle of the seven
Towers. He proceeds, and tells us, that Justinian, at a vast Expence,
upon the Entrance of the Porta Aurea on the right Hand, rebuilt the
Temple of Ja, (which Time had wholly defac’d) for the Service of the

True God. The Observation I would make from hence is, that the
Porta Aurea stood near the seventh Hill, call’d the Xerolophon, which
is also confirm’d by Zonaras, who writes, That in the Time of Leo,
many Churches and Houses, the Statue of Arcadius, plac’d upon a
Pillar in the Xerolophon, and the Statue of Theodosius the Great,
placed upon the Porta Aurea, as also the City Walls, reaching to the
Continent on the Field side, were overthrown by an Earthquake.
Cedrinus asserts, that the Statue of Victory, near the Porta Aurea,
was overturn’d by the same Earthquake. Other Historians mention,
that by the same Earthquake, which happen’d the Vᵗʰ of the Calends
of November, many sacred Buildings, and many others of common
Use, with Multitudes of People, were destroy’d; and that the Statue
of Constantine the Great, which stood upon the Gate of Attalus, with
the Gate it self, was demolish’d by it. It is therefore a great Mistake
in those, who take the Porta Aurea to be the same Gate which is
now call’d Oria, and is seated in the Northern Part of the City, which,
as I observ’d before, was called the Port of Neorius, since ’tis plain
from what I have mentioned, that the Porta Aurea was in the
Western Part of the City. This is also evident from the antient
Description of the Wards of Constantinople, which tells us, that the
Length of the City, from the Porta Aurea to the Sea-shore, in a direct
Line, is fourteen Thousand and seventy five Feet. Cedrinus takes
Notice, that the Elephants stabled in the Porta Aurea, were much of
that Kind, with which Theodosius made his publick Entry into the
City. ’Tis said that Theodosius the Less who built the Walls of the
City as far as the Blachernæ, brought the Statues of those
Elephants, which are plac’d upon the Porta Aurea, from the Temple
of Mars at Athens. Cedrinus asserts, that Philip King of Macedon built
the great Church of Mocius the Martyr, and a Church to St. Anne in a
Place call’d Secundus. Procopius says, that both these Churches
were built by Justinian. I have seen some Remains of the Church of
Mocius, near a large Cistern, built by Justinian, on the Top of the
seventh Hill. All its Pillars are standing, and it goes still under the
Name of Mocius. Some Historians, and Suidas the Grammarian say,
that this Cistern was built by Anastasius Dicorus. It may be worth
Enquiry, whether the Moneta, which the antient Description of the

Wards places in this Ward, was the Temple of Juno Moneta, or the
Treasury. For the Grand Seignor, to this Day, makes use of the Castle
with seven Towers for a Treasury. Suidas writes, that the Statue of
Juno was supported by a Brazen Arch, made somewhat in Form of a
Pair of Barbers Scissars, but takes no Notice where it stood; so that I
desire the Reader would lay no great Stress upon what I have said
of the Moneta.

T
Chap. IX.
Of the Columns now remaining on the Seventh Hill.
HE Church standing here is called Studios, because it was built by
one Studius an eminent Citizen of Constantinople. It was he, says
Suidas, who built this Church with a handsome Monastery. Justinian,
in his Constitutions, takes Notice of him, when he says, That there
were two Biers plac’d in the sacred Treasury; one to the Memory of
the Famous Studius, and the other to the Memory of the Magnificent
Stephanus. The Monastery built by Studius was call’d Studium,
which is entirely demolish’d. The Church remains, tho’ converted into
a Mosque. In its Porch are four Pillars with a Trabeation curiously
finish’d. In the Inside of the Mosque, there are on each side seven
green Pillars, streak’d with black Veins, and look as if they were
inlay’d with Pieces of Stone of another kind. Each of them measures
in Circumference six Foot and six Digits. Their Capitals, and
Architraves, are finish’d after the Corinthian Manner, as are those
which stand in the Vestibule. In the upper Part of it stands another
Order of six Pillars. In the Courts of the Mosque is a Cistern; the
Roof of it, which is Brick-work, is supported by twenty three lofty
Corinthian Pillars. The Monastery of Studius is now within the Walls
of the City, tho’ it formerly stood without it, near the way you go
from the Pillar of Arcadius to the Gate of the seven Towers. The
Passage of this Gate is at present fill’d up; the Jambs of it are two
Corinthian Pillars of spotted Marble, streak’d with green Veins, which
sustain eight smaller Pillars, which support three Arches above. On
the left Side of the Gate are six Marble Tables, all of which are
enclos’d, some with round, some with square Pilasters, upon which
are carv’d many fine Statues. They are all of them Naked, of
exquisite Workmanship, in a fighting Posture, with Clubs in their
Hands, the tallest of which have engrav’d over them winged Cupids.
On the right Side of the Gate are six more Tables, enclos’d as the

former. Upon the lowest of these there lies a young Man, with his
Face upwards, and his Legs folded, holding a musical Instrument in
his Hand. There hangs over him a little Figure, in the Likeness of a
Cupid, and above the Cupid there rises a Woman. Upon the highest
Table there’s carved a naked Statue, with a Club in his Hand; his
right Arm is cover’d with a Lyon’s Skin, and with his left Hand he is
leading Dogs. Above him is the Statue of a Lyoness with full Dugs.
Upon another Table are carv’d two Husbandmen carrying Baskets full
of Grapes; and upon another is the Statue of a flying Horse. The
Bridle is held by a Woman, behind whom stand two Women more:
At the Top of the Table there’s another Woman in a recumbent
Posture, and opposite to her a young Man lying on the Ground. I
took particular Notice of these Figures, by Reason of the Antiquity,
and the admirable Sculpture of them. I saw also upon the seventh
Hill, among others, four Mosques of curious Workmanship. Their
Vestibules and Pillars were all of Marble. Three of them stood on the
Eastern Side of the Hill, two of whose Vestibules were adorn’d with
six lofty and large Pillars; two of which were of Thebean Marble, and
the other four of different kinds of Marble, vein’d with a dark green.
The other stands near the Pillar of Arcadius, lately built by the
Consort of Solyman the Grand Seignor, (with a handsome
Caravansera, and a College, where the Turkish and Arabian Learning
is profess’d) in which I counted more than sixty Pillars of different
kinds. On the Top of the Hill there are two other Mosques, one of
which has Bagnio’s, and Colleges joyning to it. The Vestibule of it is
beautify’d with six Pillars of Thebean Marble, which measure each
six Foot in Circumference. Their Bases and Capitals are finish’d after
the Turkish Manner. The Shafts of the Pillars are very ancient,
especially of those two which face the Door of the Mosque, whose
Hypotrachelions at Top are more slender than the Shafts, tho’ in the
lower Parts of them, they are equal to them, as a Man’s Neck is less
in Circumference near the Head, than the Shoulders. ’Tis adorn’d
with one Annulet, which rises in the manner of a Ring. Above it
there’s another Annulet, which is broad and flat. I saw no
Hypotrachelion, all the Time I was at Constantinople, which came so
near the Model of Vitruvius, as this; who delivers it as his Judgment,

that the Hypotrachelion ought to be contracted in the upper Part of
it, as you may see in his third Book de Ionicis. There’s another
Mosque on the same Hill, the Vestibule of which is beautify’d with six
very lofty Pillars; in the College Court there are fourteen, and as
many in a Portico adjoyning to it.

T
Chap. X.
Of the Thirteenth Ward of the City, call’d the Sycene
Ward, of the Town of Galata, sometimes nam’d
Pera.
HE Antient Description of the Wards of the City takes Notice, that
Galata was formerly a Part of the City. The Thirteenth Ward of
New Rome, says the Author, is the Sycene Ward, which is divided
from it by a narrow Bay, and preserves an Intercourse with it, by
Boats and Shipping. It is seated on the Side of a Hill, except a broad
Tract of Land at the Foot of it, which lies upon the Level. Stephanus
says, that the Town of Sycæ was situated against New Rome, and
that it was call’d in his Time Sycæ Justinianæ, but does not give the
Reason why it was call’d so. Probably it was, because Justinian
either repair’d or rebuilt it; for which Reasons principally Cities
frequently change their Names. I wonder that Procopius never took
Notice of this Place, since he has given us an exact Description of all
the Edifices of the Bay, call’d the Chrysoceras, which were either
built or repair’d by him; unless perhaps the Mistake be in Procopius,
by inserting the Word Jucundianæ instead of Justinianæ, when he
tells us, that Justinian rebuilt the Palaces of the Suburbs in the
Chalcopratia, as also in the Place call’d Sycæ Jucundianæ. If the
Fault be not in Procopius, ’tis an Errour of Stephanus, who writes
Justinianæ for Jucundianæ. But ’tis plain, that Stephanus wrote long
before the Time of Justinian; so that if there be any Blunder, ’tis
none of Stephanus, but Hermolaus, a Grammarian of
Constantinople, who abridg’d the Commentaries of Stephanus, and
dedicated them to Justinian. If I might give my Opinion, I should
rather call it Sycæ Justinianæ, than Jucundianæ, because it appears
to me it should be so, not only by comparing some Books of
Procopius and Justinian which have been publish’d, but also by the
Authorities of several MSS. Justinian asserts in his Constitutions,

That ’tis agreeable to Equity, if a Corpse be carried to the Grave to a
great Distance, that the Deacons attending it, should have some
Acknowledgment. He subjoyns a little after, That he is of the same
Opinion, if the Corpse be bury’d within the new Walls of the City or
this Side of the Sycæ Justinianæ. This is but a small Procession, and
it requires not much Time or Pains to walk thither; but, says he, if
the Body be carried beyond the Walls of this flourishing City, or
beyond any other Stairs, than those which lead to Sycæ——There’s
no Occasion to add what follows. I would only have the Reader
observe, that the Word πέρασμα which the Latins interpret Terminus,
or a Boundary, signifies properly Trajectus, a Ferry, or the Stairs from
whence you sail from one Place to another. ’Tis evident, from what I
have quoted, that the Town call’d Sycæ is on the other side of the
Bay facing Constantinople, altho’ Stephanus has not declar’d against
what Part of the City it lies. I observe notwithstanding from the
Treatise above mention’d, that the sixth Ward reach’d from the
Forum of Constantine to the Ferry against Sycæ, which is now call’d
the Ferry of Pera, or Galata. As I would pay a just Regard to the
Authorities of some more modern Historians, I hall produce several
Testimonies from them. They assert, that Absimarus, the
Commander in Chief of the Forces which besieg’d Constantinople,
harbour’d in the Port of Sycæ against the City. Evagrius writes, that
the Heads of Longinus, and Theodorus, stuck upon Poles, were sent
to Constantinople by Johannes a Scythian, and by the Emperor’s
Command were fix’d upon the Shore of Sycæ, opposite to
Constantinople; a pleasant Spectacle to the Inhabitants of the City!
He adds further, That Vitalianus made an Incursion as far as Sycæ,
and that when he came to an Anchor there, the Emperor Anastasius
sent Marinus an Assyrian Admiral to fight him. Both Fleets prepare
for the Engagement; the one facing Constantinople, the other Sycæ.
For some Time they kept their Stations; after some small Skirmishes,
and Attacks on both Sides, the Fight began near the Places call’d the
Vitharia. Vitalianus having lost most of his Men, was forced to bear
off, so that there was not the least Appearance of an Enemy in all
the Bosporus. Nor am I induc’d to change my Opinion by the
Authority of Strabo, who seems to place Sycæ at some Distance

from the Bay. The Bosporus, says he, straitning it self from the
Promontory into the Measure of five Stadia, or Furlongs, widens at
the Harbour plac’d below Sycæ into thirty Furlongs, and from Sycæ
to the Chrysoceras it contracts it self again into five Furlongs. Nor
would this Opinion any ways contradict what I have said before, if
my Author had meant by the Ceras of the Byzantians, what Pliny ’tis
plain did, viz. the Bosporian Promontory where Byzantium stood. But
Strabo immediately subjoins, that the Ceras was a Bay which was
sixty Furlongs in length; and therefore it appears to me, that the
Mistake lies either in Cod. Strabon. or in the Historian himself, as is
fully evident from the Authority of Dionysius, a very ancient Writer of
the History of Constantinople, which was his Native Place. This
Author has recorded it, that Sycodes, or Sycæ, is the same Place
near the Bay call’d Ceras, where Galata stands at present, as I have
more evidently shewn in my Treatise of the Bosporus. The People of
Pera therefore are grosly in the wrong, when they tell us, that Pera
was first built by the Genoese; when it is plain that Pera was built
long before they were suppos’d either to have purchas’d the Town,
or to have receiv’d it as a Reward of their Sea-Services, from some
Emperor of Constantinople; since Justinian places Sycæ within the
Walls of the City, and Agathius assures us, it was enclosed with
Walls, when he writes, that the People of Constantinople were in
such a Consternation upon the Approach of the Enemy, that the
Forces of Justinian were obliged to climb the Walls of Sycæ, to make
a more vigorous Defence. Sycæ, by Stephanus, is call’d a City, as it
is also by some modern Writers; but more antient Authors, who liv’d
before Galata was taken by the Genoese, call it the Cittadel of
Galata. They tell us farther, that a Fleet of the Saracens was
station’d from the Magnaura to the Cyclobion; and that after it had
continu’d two Days in that Station, Part of it was driven by a Storm
to the Cittadel of Galata, as far as the Clydion, where the Emperor of
Constantinople destroy’d it, from Acropolis, with liquid Fire. Zonaras
writes, that when Michael the Emperor was besieged both by Sea
and Land, he was so terribly distrest, that he was forc’d to lay a
Boom across the Sea from Acropolis, to a small Town on the
opposite Shore. There is at this Day a Gate at Galata, which is call’d

the Boom-Gate. ’Tis however beyond Dispute, that Galata was more
than once enlarg’d by the Genoese: This appears from the Walls,
which at several Times they have built about it, being fortified on the
East by Double, and on the West by Treble Walls, denoting the
gradual Increase of the Town. You may see at present the antient
Sycæ, enclos’d in the middle of Galata, situate against the sixth
Ward, and the Sycene Ferry, all built on the Side of a Hill, just as ’tis
represented in the Antient Description of the Wards, except one
broad Piece of Ground, which lies upon a Level on the Shore at the
Foot of the Hill. This Tract of Land was at least a hundred Roman
Paces broad. For at present, between the Hill and the Bay, there is a
Plain to be seen of an equal, if not of a larger Breadth; because, in
such a Length of Time, it is widen’d, as may be observ’d daily, by the
Abundance of Filth and Nastiness, which is cast about it. To make it
subside at the Bottom, the Inhabitants have fix’d wooden Troughs
upon Piles, which they drive into the Earth by an Engine, much like a
Rammer. By this Means the Plain upon the Shore is enlarg’d, and
made more commodious for Havens. But that the Reader may
understand more perfectly where the Sycene Ward stood formerly, I
will describe the Situation of Galata, as it stands at present.

T
Chap. XI.
A Description of Galata; of the Temples of
Amphiaraus, Diana, and Venus; of the Theatre of
Sycæ, and the Forum of Honorius.
HE Sycene Ward, which is commonly called Galata, or Pera, ought
more properly to be called the Peræan Ward. Thus it is that
Josephus calls Judæa, because it lay on the other Side of the River
Jordan: And thus it is, that Strabo calls that Part of the Countrey
which lies on the other Side of Euphrates. The Reason alledg’d by
the Inhabitants, why ’tis call’d Galata, is, as they tell you, (being
impos’d upon by the Allusion of the Name) that Milk was formerly
sold there: And I make no Question of it, did they but know, that
Galata was formerly call’d Sycæ, they would derive its Name from
the Word Fig; and pretend to justify their Mistake from the Authority
of Dionysius their Countryman, who says, that it was originally call’d
Sycæ, from the Fairness and Abundance of that Fruit which grew
there. But their Conjectures had been grounded upon a better
Foundation, if they had deriv’d the Name of Galata from the Galatæ,
back’d by the Authority of Johannes Tzetzes (a Citizen of
Constantinople, and a very industrious Grammarian) in his Var. Hist.
written above four hundred Years ago. This Author tells us, that
Brenus a Gaul, and Commander in Chief of the Gauls, whom the
Greeks call Γαλάται, pass’d over the Sea from thence to a Place of
Byzantium, and that this Place for this Reason was call’d Pera, which
was after their Arrival call’d Galata. This Place is seated partly on a
Hill, and partly on a Plain at the Foot of it. This Hill is enclosed on
the East and West by two Valleys, each of which is about a Mile in
length. The Ridge of the Hill shoots from North to South, and is in
no Part of it less than two hundred Paces broad, and of equal Length
with the Valleys that enclose it, and joins to the Plain upon the
Continent. The South Side of this Hill, and the Plain below it, is

bounded by the Bay of Ceras, which makes it almost a Peninsula of a
semicircular Figure, in the Form of a drawn Bow, with this Difference
only, that the Western Point of it is larger by half; and not quite so
long as the Eastern. Galata, as ’tis enclos’d with a Wall, is four
Thousand and four Hundred Paces in Compass. It varies, in many
Places, as to its Breadth. In the middle of the Town ’tis six hundred
Paces broad. The Bay and the Walls stand at twenty Paces Distance.
The Plain that runs between the Bay and the Hill, is a hundred and
eighty, and the Hill it self four hundred Paces broad. The Eastern
Side of Galata, at the first Entrance of it, is four hundred Paces in
breadth; after which it contracts it self into the Breadth of two
hundred and sixty Paces only. The Western Side of it, which stands
without Old Galata, rises upon a moderate Ascent, which winds
Southward, and adjoyns to a small Descent, which terminates
Westward near the Walls of Old Galata. The Town therefore of
Galata stands upon a Treble Descent; one of which winds from North
to South, another falls Easterly, and another at West. The Declivity
which crosses the Breadth of it, stretches from North to South; and
is so steep, that in many Places you are forced to climb it by Steps;
so that you ascend the first Floor of the Houses, which stands upon
a Level, by Ladders. The Eastern and Western Side of Galata have a
double Declivity; one from North to South, the other to East and
West; so that not only those Parts of it which lie in a strait Line, but
those Ways also which are winding, or lie Cross-ways, have their
Descents; but the Eastern Side of the Town is more upon the
Declivity than the Western Side of it. To be short, Galata is of such a
Steepness, that if all the Houses were of an equal Height, the upper
Rooms would have a full View of the Sea, and of all the Ships sailing
up and down in it. And not only Galata, but almost the whole City of
Constantinople would have the same Privilege, if that Law, which
was first made by Zeno, and afterwards ratify’d by Justinian, was in
full Force. This Law expressly forbids any Man to hinder or obstruct
an open and entire View of the Sea, or indeed a Side Prospect of it,
and enjoyns the Inhabitants to build at least at a hundred Paces
Distance from it. The Level Part of the Town, which runs between
the Bottom of the Hill and Bay, is, in no Place of it, less than two

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